By K E Stone (Keystone)
The media is in frenzy over coronavirus (COVID-19) preaching
doom and gloom every 10 minutes. Chicken Little (Henny Penny), hit on the head
by a coronavirus particle, proclaims that “the sky is falling” creating further
panic. 18 months of pandemic drives a sane mind mad with paranoia around every
corner and hysteria over each hill.
The vaccine shaming and relentless brow-beating of
unvaccinated people is off the rails. California democrat Governor Newsom
decrees that the unvaccinated are “like drunk drivers” being careless and
putting “everybody else at risk including your own life at risk.” Newsom is
imposing a mandatory vaccine requirement on state employees.
The US medical folks knew at the onset that about 20% of
Americans would not take the vaccine. Lo and behold, about 20% do not want the
vaccine. People not planning for that outcome are the problem not the
unvaccinated. Remember, the United States is supposed to be a free nation.
The media’s allegiance has to be identified so the messaging
and narratives can be properly understood. America’s government is a corrupt
two-party system; democrats and republicans. CNN, MSNBC, the broadcast channels
ABC, CBS and NBC, also NPR, PBS, New York Times and Washington Post (King
Bezos) are the democrat tribe (liberals, left-leaning, progressives, leftists).
Fox News, Newsmax, OANN, Breitbart, AM talk radio and New York Post are the republican
tribe (conservatives, right-leaning, right-wing radicals).
Thus, there is a political advantage (in their eyes) for the
democrat media to bang on the vaccination drum all day long. By highlighting
that the current US wave 5 outbreak is mainly in the southern republican
states, the democrat media pounds this message because they believe it will
help their tribe as much as they feel they are performing a public service
encouraging people to get vaccinated. Realize that the politics, the power,
money and greed, mean more to a politician than anything on earth.
The unvaccinated Americans are pummeled daily until they
submit. Get down on your knees, and roll up your sleeves. Does anyone think
this Gestapo behavior leads anywhere good? The hospitals are not overrun like
January; not even close. Some hospitals in southern Missouri and Los Angeles
are operating at capacity but surrounding facilities are helping out. If people
do not want to get vaccinated, so be it. If they get sick, they go to the
hospital, and perhaps die. The circle of life.
The pundits say they want to understand the unvaccinated but
make no effort to do so. There is a robust supply of platitudes in America
these days and people are grabbing them with both fists. Why do people choose
not to get vaccinated? There are many reasons. It can be as easy as the doctor
testing for antibodies and, seeing that you are adequately protected, suggests
that you do not take the vaccine at this point in time.
People have to make the decision about vaccination with
their doctors and others have to respect that decision and mind their own
business. The HIPAA (Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act;
Health Information Privacy) laws are flushed down the toilet during the
pandemic with people believing it is their right to know other people’s health
status. This is not healthy for society.
Do not stick your nose in other people’s business; sometimes
it results in a bloody nose. The United States was not like this decades back.
Privacy was cherished but now it is just another quaint notion from years gone
by.
The democrat media focuses on the outbreak in the southern
states where the India B1617 variant (delta) is wreaking havoc. Using Arkansas
as an example, 65% of the state voted for former republican President Trump who
lost the November 2020 election. 36% of Arkansans are vaccinated. The
percentage of vaccinated folks, 36%, matches the percent of people voting for
President Biden, 35%. However, the math is not that cute. People making up
these groups are stereotyped but there are folks of all races, religions,
genders and beliefs that are members of both parties.
Sure, there is a political component at play in the southern
states but for the media to dwell on it 24/7 and claim it is the major factor
is simply not true. The only way to properly gauge the political breakdown is
to ask people their political affiliation when they get vaccinated (of course
people would choose if they want to disclose that information). That is the
actual data that provides the vaccination distribution along political parties
but it was never collected.
Wetting an index finger to see which way the political winds
are blowing, and broadcasting that 35% of the state voted for Biden and 36% are
vaccinated, and then proclaiming that democrat good republican bad is childish,
not helpful, and does not paint an accurate statistical picture. It does make
for good television and the democrat media smiles taking points away from the
republican media.
The KFF does a great job accumulating and processing data
and provides insight into the vaccination saga. 86% of the democrats are
vaccinated compared to 61% independents and 52% republicans. Rather than blaming
republicans for the vaccination program woes, the independents and republican
data are roughly in line with each other and represent America that is split
about 50/50 between the republican and democrat tribes. Thus, it is not that
the republicans are the cause of the unvaccinated but it is instead an
outperformance and enthusiasm for vaccinations by the democrats (86%).
23% of republicans and 16% of independents say they will
definitely not get vaccinated. This takes the situation back to that 20% number
that the medical planners knew would not want to take the shot from the
beginning so it should not be a surprise.
The youth are refusing to take the vaccines at an elevated
level compared to the population. 18% of
the 30 to 49 year old’s and 15% of the 18 to 29 year old’s definitely do not
want the shot. Some of the young folks have high-paying computer and technology
jobs and are voting their pocketbook, like most people do, and favoring the
republicans because they are concerned about taxes and other financial matters
as they watch their savings grow quickly.
Looking at the gender breakdown, ages, ethnicities and
political affiliations, for those that already got vaccinated, the top group is
the democrat tribe at 86% followed by those 65 years old and older at 85% and
then the college-educated at 79%. The people that attended a university
overwhelmingly believe what they are told by all scientists and doctors and
they ran to the vaccination sites enthusiastically. These are the upper middle
class and elite in America that have the money so they obviously want to get
back to their jet set lives.
Bringing up the rear for the Americans that have already got
vaccinated, only 52% of republicans took the shot so far, only 55% of the 18 to
29 year old age group, and 59% to 63% for the 30 to 49 year old’s, those that
did not go to college, Blacks, independents, males and Hispanics. If you want
to get people vaccinated, stop brow-beating republicans at large and instead
focus on the young folks from 18 to 39, Blacks and Latino’s and especially
overlap in these groupings.
What are the specific reasons that people do not want the
shot? The KFF data shows that the number one reason folks do not want the
vaccines is that the technology is too new. That is a logical decision. The doctors,
scientists and tv talking heads are quick to proclaim that the data is in, and
the shots are safe, so shut up and roll up your sleeve, after you get down on
your knees.
If you ask any doctor worth their weight, the complete
effects and impact of a drug are not known for several years. Granted, most of
the severe side effects and negative impacts are typically identified within
the first six months but by no means all the time. No one should berate any
American for choosing to wait because the vaccines are new technology.
Note how the mRNA vaccines are hyped with pundits decreeing
that the technology has been researched for decades. At the start of the
vaccine quest, the mRNA was said to be brand new technology. Then, realizing
that messaging may dissuade people from taking the shot, the story changed to
say the mRNA is a decades old technology now coming into the mainstream. The
first papers on mRNA vaccines surfaces about 25 years ago (this is the ‘decades’
proclamation) but it is only the last few years where it has been a strong
focus by companies.
A couple decades is a babe in the woods technology still wet
behind its ears. The impact of the vaccines, mRNA and conventional, will not be
completely known for several years so it is unfair to criticize people for
logically deciding to wait a while and see what happens. In fact, people
jumping on the vaccine train now are preferring the Moderna vaccine as Keystone
previously highlighted with anecdotal evidence.
Smart people waited for the vaccine commotion to die down
and are watching the side effects and other issues surfacing for each vaccine.
Many are choosing Moderna since it has the least side effects which shows that
logical minds waited a few months, assessed the situation, are open to
vaccines, and decide to step forward for the shot and choose the vaccine they
believe is best (Moderna).
The bad thing about bashing and blaming republicans for the
unvaccinated ranks is that it masks the actual issue which is focusing on young
people, Blacks and Latino’s that need vaccinated. Perhaps calmer minds will
dominate going forward. In fact, young, overweight and obese, Black’s and Latino’s,
better get your arses to the doctor’s office.
As per the KFF, of the people that are not vaccinated, 53%
do not want the shot because it is too new (number one reason), 53% are worried
about side effects, 43% just don’t want to get the vaccine, 38% do not trust
the government (who could blame them after the Trump and Fauci confusion and
chaos last year and the ongoing CDC, NIH and WHO carnival show this year) and
38% don’t think they need the vaccine (probably a lot of young folks and
Latino’s).
Latino’s are being asked for documentation in some
vaccination locations which creates fear among the group and vaccine avoidance.
Folks must be assured that the government only wants to vaccinate them and not haul
them away. Trusted local leaders have to help the people understand the situation.
Many Latino’s are refusing shots in the southern states and at the southern
border. Blacks have mistrust of the government and medical studies and the only
cure for that is going into communities, building trust and explaining and
educating folks.
There are other reasons people do not get vaccinated. Some
folks experience serious adverse reactions and have rare conditions prohibiting
the shots, as any doctor will tell you. Others are immunocompromised in some
manner where the vaccines are not as effective. Some Catholics remain concerned
about fertility issues with the mRNA vaccines and clarity only comes with more
time.
America should not embrace the over-the-top rhetoric that blames
republican media for causing people to not get vaccinated no more than blaming
President Biden and Vice President Harris for not enthusiastically endorsing
vaccines in late 2020 when Trump was still in office. It is a political
pandemic and the democrat and republican tribes are playing their baby games
country be damned.
The media doom and gloom is not warranted based on the
latest numbers. The CDC data and charts mainly displayed on democrat media is
information that is 3 days old. It is a grave disservice to the country to whip
people into a tizzy quoting numbers and showing charts that are already 3 days
in the rearview mirror. Not cool.
The overweight and obesity problem remains the 900-pound
gorilla on the living room sofa. As per the CDC, nearly 80% of the coronavirus
deaths are overweight and obese people! Open your eyes folks. Is society so
sensitive and blind that they do not see the overweight folks dropping like
flies? The fat people are the ones in most danger from COVID-19.
The talking heads are incompetent for not mentioning this
fact on television each day but they do not because some of the news anchors
are fat and the networks likely do not want to be accused of fat shaming.
Hasn’t society become sick? Think twice if you glorify a fat person for feeling
good about themselves; by all means applaud and encourage their fantastic
mental attitude but at the same time tell them they are obese and need to lose
weight.
If people do not want vaccinated, leave them alone. The
abuse of the unvaccinated is because the vaccinated tend to be more well off
financially and want to get back to traveling, eating at fancy restaurants and
walking around with their chests puffed-out. The hospitals will not be overrun
so people can sit back and take a chill pill. Also, a couple hundred Americans
dying daily from the China Flu, although tragic and life-changing for the
families left behind, must be realized in the context of a 330 million
population.
The regular seasonal flu kills from 30K to 65K people each
year which equates to an annual number of 80 to 180 deaths per day in the US
from regular flu. COVID-19 is currently killing a comparable amount of humans
as the regular flu. Last year the deaths from regular flu were nil because they
were likely all counted as covid. The same may be occurring now. Nonetheless,
you get the point.
No one bats an eyelash over people dying from the flu each
year. Stack on top a few more obese bodies and one wonders why the hype over
coronavirus is at rabid levels. The wealthy vaccinated folks want to get back
to their pre-pandemic lifestyles and are denigrating anyone (the unvaccinated) that
dares ruin their rosy path.
The US vaccination rate chart is shown above provided by theCDC and annotated by Keystone. The US wave 4 outbreak was snuffed-out as
vaccinations hit their peak at 4.4 million doses on 7/8/21, also a peak in the
7-day MA trend line of 3.2 million doses per day, and then the wheels fell off.
The CDC and FDA place a hold on the J&J vaccine due to
side effects in April and the public immediately lost confidence in the vaccinations.
The rate fell off a cliff as the black circle shows in the chart. This was the
key turning point in the vaccination program. The officials had to choose that
path to make sure the issue with the vaccine was addressed from a safety
standpoint so they were damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
In May, the CDC lifts the indoor mask mandate for vaccinated
people which encouraged many to run out and get the shot bumping the vax rate
higher, but then the rate rolls back over again in quick order. At the same
time, some unvaccinated people toss their masks into the trash can which
promotes the virus spread now occurring with wave 5.
Biden tries every trick in the book to encourage
vaccinations. States provide all kinds of goodies such as cash incentives,
lotteries, gifts, beer, joints, tuition, etc.., which provides temporary pops
in the vax rate but it continues lower overall. The president misses his goal
of vaccinating 70% of US adults with at least one dose by 7/4/21. Biden is
enjoying a bowl of pudding in the Whitehouse kitchen as he prepares for bedtime
this afternoon. Sleepy Joey just told the chef that he is going to look for the
70% goal in the Rose Garden as soon as he finds his hat.
The US vaccination rate is at about 450K shots per day
leveling-off for 3 weeks, since Independence Day, and that is better than
dropping. It tells you that the easy shots are long gone but there are still
points to put on the board if you go into the projects, and inner cities, and
rural Appalachia, to bring those shots to folks. Many are poor and do not have
the time or money to go looking for a vaccination. If you go to them they are
willing to roll up their sleeves and this is proven by the flat and steady
vaccination rate. Everybody wants their *ss kissed nowadays and vaccinations
appear no different.
Special thanks to the doctors, nurses, medics and support
staffs helping with logistics, tents, traffic cones and other duties at
vaccination sites. They are in the trenches grinding it out each day.
The United States needs to focus on the overweight and obese
people that are rolling the covid dice; a vaccine may be a good idea for them.
Simply look people in the eye and tell them that 80% of the people dying from
COVID-19 are overweight and obese. Capeesh? Many will roll up their sleeves
faster than Sally Jane rolling-up her prom dress many years ago.
For yesterday, the US reports 35.8K daily new cases as per
Worldometer data. This is good news. The media is doom and gloom because they
are three days behind still reporting the up spike in cases in many states.
Comically, the people you look to for current news are reporting yesterday’s
news. Over the next couple days, the doom and gloom will be watered down as the
media sees the data improve.
There is no guarantee the encouraging data will continue for
the US but for now we can hope so and pray that wave 5 rolls over and dies. The
US daily new cases chart is shown above with the 7-day MA highlighted. The
7-day MA trend line is flattening at 54K cases and will roll over if the daily
cases remain lower and continue dropping. The big data day was last Friday so
this will work through the 7-day MA calculation in 3 more days (lowering the
7-day MA as long as the cases keep moving lower). The 3-day MA of US daily new
cases has already rolled over so that trend needs to continue lower.
The red lines highlight the upward-moving slopes of the daily
cases for the five US waves. The India B1617 variant (delta) is the big bad
wolf knocking on the door right now advertised as the biggest baddest variant
that ever walked this side of the Pecos. The US wave 5 slope is sharply higher
but the start of the wave 3 outbreak was spreading at a faster rate.
The medical folks use the fancy R naught formula for
calculating transmissibility, throwing everything into the number including the
kitchen sink, but Keystone has a simple mind, and the chart above clearly
illustrates the pace of spread for the various waves.
Wave 4 was the least virulent spread of cases (flattest red
line). Herd immunity, from the vaccines and natural antibodies from those that
already contracted COVID-19 (many asymptomatic never knowing they were sick),
smashed wave 4 and paved the way to glory ahead. However, the Delta variant
shows its ugly face, brought into the US via international travelers returning
from foreign trips.
The India variant bites harder than wave 4 proving that it
is more transmissible but the claims that it is wildly more contagious appear
overblown. This thinking would be immediately proven wrong if the chart goes
parabolic in the days ahead (vertical) but will be proven correct if the data
flattens and rolls over to the downside.
The pandemic was beat after wave 4. The US chart shows you
how it is true that the pandemic is never over until it is over everywhere. We
are all humans and will pass diseases and viruses to one another all around the
globe. The United States had the pandemic beat but there was not enough time to
help the rest of the world get to the same place. The variants have time to
form their mutated ugliness and then come back around to slap Uncle Sam in the face
again.
The UK B117 variant (alpha) slapped the UK now it is the
India B1617 variant (delta) wreaking havoc in the UK, US, Europe and around the
world. The Peru C37 variant (lambda) is moving north from South and Central
America. Alpha-Delta-Lambda sounds like a fraternity house horror show.
Big pharma is slowly stepping up to the plate to expand
factories in Africa and Asia but they need to build new factories and get their
butts in gear. The greedy bastards make enough money to fund a few new
factories in those underdeveloped regions. The time it takes to get shots in
arms in the third-world countries can be greatly reduced thereby benefiting the
entire planet during a pandemic. Time will tell if the lust for greed
overpowers that great feeling of helping those in need.
The US active cases in the United States chart is shown
above. It is sad to see the curve curl higher. Wave 4 was flat and the active
cases quickly rolled over but the current wave 5 is coming with an increase in
hospitalizations (but less than the prior months). As per the Keystone Model
highlighted below, the active cases are projected to peak, flatten and roll
over on 8/20/21, or sooner if the cases continue lower. Thus, healthcare
workers have to expect caseloads bumping slightly higher each day for the next
couple-three weeks and then the workload will subside again as wave 5 rolls
over.
132 Americans die yesterday and the 7-day MA trend line for
US deaths is at 261 deaths per day. 627K Americans are dead as per the
Worldometer data. Johns-Hopkins data is at 611K US deaths. The CDC is at 609K
deaths. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) reports 607K
deaths as the comparable figure but factoring in all deaths including
unreported deaths results in an excess death number at 938K about a factor of
1.5 higher.
According to the latest revised numbers, 420K Americans died
under Trump’s watch through the inauguration on 1/20/21. 207K Americans are
dead under Biden’s watch for a total of 627K souls.
The Florida daily new cases chart is shown above. Those
scoundrels! Republican Governor DeSantis is hiding under his desk as cases leap
high in all Florida counties. 1 in 5 new daily COVID-19 cases are in Florida.
Trump holds court at Mar-a-Lago with republicans dodging coronavirus to kneel
and kiss the ring.
DeSantis has his fingers in his ears singing, “la, la, la,”
unwilling to listen to anyone explaining the data. The major travesty is
Florida no longer reporting daily numbers. The chart above ends on Saturday,
7/24/21, with the record high 14.3K daily new cases in the Sunshine State.
Florida is going to a weekly report of the cases which will
not provide timely information. As Florida cases jump higher, officials are
urging DeSantis to resume the daily case numbers. How convenient that the data
ends right when the daily cases may have reported the highest ever even
overtaking last January. No wonder DeSantis is in the backroom erasing and
editing numbers in between stints of crawling under the desk. Florida is in
trouble and flying blind.
Last Thursday, 86 Floridians croaked from covid the
deadliest day since May. That will get people’s attention. Governor DeSantis,
who has designs on the Whitehouse in 2024, is the Baghdad Bob of the COVID-19 pandemic
proclaiming there is nothing to see here. Move along, move along.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 35.3 million. India is next with 31.4 million total virus cases.
Brazil, Russia, France, UK, Turkey, Argentina, Colombia and Spain round out the
top ten. The UK and Turkey switch places. Italy drops to number 11 with Spain
worsening and taking the number 10 spot.
Coronavirus has infected 195.6 million people worldwide. 4.2
million people have died from the Wuhan Virus. Fortunately, 177.4 million global
citizens have recovered from coronavirus. 91% (177.4/195.6) of the people that
become infected with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame. This
percentage had improved by about 7 points during May and June but now drops off
from the 92% level a month ago. This 91% to 92% area is looking like a ceiling
for the recovery percentage.
Worldwide, 2.2% (4.2/195.6) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number has sat at 2.1%-2.2% for many months. 1 in every 47
people that are infected with China Flu around the world will die, and this
number does not budge week after week month after month. It is always 2.1%-2.2%
and will not change even with vaccinations available for a half year. The
global mortality rate is at an impasse for months. It will be a great day if it
ever decreases.
2.6% (195.6/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 39 people on earth
worsening a tick over the last week. The Wuhan Virus has negatively impacted
everyone on the planet in one way or the other.
In the United States, 35.3 million people are infected with covid.
627K Americans are dead. 29.6 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus.
This equates to nearly 84% (29.6/35.3) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19. The number increases by about 6 percentage-points during
May and June but levels-off for the last month. Like the world’s recovery rate
above, the US recovery rate may have met its ceiling at about 84%. The US
recovery rate is lower than the world’s because of the obesity problem.
As mentioned above, 80% of the people dying from coronavirus
are overweight and obese. The worst states for obesity include Alabama,
Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and
Tennessee which are states experiencing the jumps in new cases! The obese
people keep getting sick with covid! Open your eyes. This is the food police. Now
hear this. Put the potato chips down and step away from the table.
In the US, 1.8% (627.0/35300) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number remains sticky week after week, for multiple months, but the
vaccines are supposed to reduce deaths. The majority of deaths now, 99.5%
according to Fauci, are unvaccinated people. Interestingly, the same percentage
of deaths occur whether it was before the vaccinations or during the vaccinations.
It is amazing how this number will not budge month after month. It will be a
big deal when the 1.8% drops lower.
The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 56 US citizens that are
infected with coronavirus dying. The death rate is at 2.2% globally which is higher
than the US reflecting the lower vaccination rates, less medical equipment such
as ventilators and oxygen tanks, less hospitals and less medical folks to work
at the facilities. Also, more people will die in poorer nations than wealthier
nations due to environmental and living conditions.
Ironically, Americans worship unhealthy eating habits embracing
obesity while at the same time ignoring life-saving vaccines. Humans are fat,
dumb and happy when living large. It is the way humans are wired.
10.7% (35.3/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. 1 in every 9 Americans have been stricken
with coronavirus which worsens slightly over the last week. The minority
communities are impacted disproportionately. This number remains relatively
steady.
The United States has 18.1% (35.3/195.6) of the COVID-19
cases in the world. 1 in 5 people (5.5 to be exact which is 2 in 11) that
become infected with covid on planet earth are Americans. The US vaccination
program is making a difference. This percentage was 22% about 3 months ago so
the drop is great news for the US but sadly, bad news for other nations since
their infection numbers are higher.
The US accounts for 15% (627/4200) of the China Flu deaths
in the world. The trend is slowly improving. 1 in 7 people that die from
COVID-19 around the world are Americans. A couple months ago, it was 1 in 5. The
numbers are going in the right direction for the US but that means
proportionally more people are dying elsewhere such as Southeast Asia, Africa
and Central America.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases chart
represents the maximum stress and strain on the medical system and healthcare
workers. Once the bell curve forms with active cases dropping dramatically, the
virus will be defeated, and healthcare workers can breathe easier.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Australia are in
this group although their recent track records are abysmal. Several Middle East
nations are under authoritarian rule and the peaks in the new cases are quickly
followed by the peak in the active cases chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last few months, the 11 and 28-day timeframes
compress slightly since more is known about handling coronavirus. Thus, a
couple days can be shaved off the current target dates. The Keystone Model will
not change since it needs to be consistent the whole way through the pandemic
in its approach.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
appears ringing-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot catch a
break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the bell
shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer, the CDC and Johns-Hopkins. You see these
daily new cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically
show the 7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that
helps identify the trend.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily new cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if
it is within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the
daily new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new
case date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new
case peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that
you see in the bar chart.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the
China Flu story forward. The information in the Coronavirus Chronology articles
is vital to understanding the progress of the pandemic and knowing where the
hotspots exist. The chronology serves as a historical document that will be
referenced for decades to come by those that want to experience the entire
pandemic as it unfolds in real-time.
The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be
published in the future by Amazon and distributed internationally. This is
Article 49 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information for
historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This forty-ninth article is published on Tuesday, 7/27/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time, without any allegiance to political parties or media sources.
All 49 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The last couple articles are linked below if you want to come up to speed with the
COVID-19 saga.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracker is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well with the
Worldometer data ahead of the Johns-Hopkins and CDC data by a few days.
The Worldometer data is far superior for forecasting since
it is updated more reliably in real-time. The importance of real-time data is
blaringly obvious as the media pumps fear and dread into American minds today
based on data and charts that are 3 days old.
The countries with rising active cases charts are
highlighted below with the worst nations at the bottom. Sadly, the United
States is back on the bad list as daily cases rise. The peaks in daily new
cases are shown and the projected peaks for active cases are based on the
Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active cases curve represents
the maximum stress on healthcare workers.
The pandemic is not under control until the active cases
curve flattens and rolls over forming the bell shape. It will take longer for
the active cases charts to roll over to form the bell shape for those troubled
nations at the bottom of the list.
DRC-Congo (Third Wave)
6/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
7/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
7/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of wave 5)
7/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of wave 4)
7/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening and rolling over)
7/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
7/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (7/23 peak but give it a couple days)
7/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 7/15 and 7/16/21)
7/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (7/24 peak but give it a couple days)
7/17/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 5 7/16 and 7/17/21)
8/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/17/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 4)
8/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/20/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of wave 6)
7/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/20/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of wave 5)
7/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (peaked 7/22/21 but give it a couple days)
7/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of wave 4)
8/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 7/14 and 7/22/21)
8/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/23/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 5)
8/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest daily cases ever)
8/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever for wave 5)
8/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 5)
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of wave 3 during July)
8/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 7/15 and 7/16/21)
8/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
8/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 7/3 and 7/4/21)
8/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for wave 3 over last 3 days)
8/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for wave 4)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 4)
8/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases 7/23 and 7/26/21)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for wave 5)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for wave 4)
8/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Indonesia’s active cases curve has peaked so fingers are crossed that it rolls over this week to form the bell shape. Indonesian healthcare workers should notice a strong improvement in caseloads going forward. It’s island neighbor Malaysia is a different story facing the maximum attack of the virus on their nation right now. Malaysia daily new cases and deaths are at record levels for the pandemic.
Haiti’s active cases curve rolls over so it is taken off the
bad list. Things are slowly improving coronavirus-wise but the government
remains in political turmoil. Honduras in Central America worsens.
The US is on the bad list and will hopefully see the active
cases curve roll over in early August which would be the peak of activity for
the healthcare workers for wave 5. Mexico remains in bad shape which creates
headaches at the southern US border. Texas, Arizona and New Mexico must remain
vigilant. Canada slips on the ice reporting 1.2K daily new cases a big jump
higher and the most in 5 weeks. What have those madcap Canucks been doing up
there?
The US government is transporting migrants, that cross the
southern border, to different areas of the country for assimilation but without
stringent testing protocols, these folks may be contributing to the outbreaks
in the south and west. According to informal reports, only about one-third of
the migrants entering the US at the southern border are taking the vaccination.
In Europe, Greece and Spain are getting better. Daily cases
are moving lower. Ditto Portugal. Keep doing what you are doing and, in a week
or two, there will be a huge noticeable difference in the reduction of cases
and people will begin talking vacation time again. Ireland is not doing well.
Italy is added to the bad list above. Germany is hanging in there with low case
counts but the active cases curve curls higher so the Deutschland may be added
to the bad list next time. Cases are sneaking higher in Sweden.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is rolling the covid dice
the last couple weeks and it may come up a winner. Daily cases have dropped
since the top on 7/17/21 the Saturday before last Saturday. Monday’s daily
cases are 25K a low relative number since it is the first weekday number.
Remember, Freedom Day was 7/19/21 which is 8 days ago the sweet spot of the 7
to 10 day incubation period.
If Brit’s went crazy on the weekend before, on Monday, and
Tuesday, the UK is in the critical window now to see the impact of reopening
the economy and removing covid guidelines. So far, after Monday’s data, it is
looking good but the numbers will be needed for the rest of the week. This is
when an Oxford scholar in a corduroy jacket with elbow patches strokes his beard
and waxes poetic about the pandemic, going on record as being cautiously
optimistic for the UK.
In Africa, Tunisia is taken off the bad list as its active
cases roll over, however, the country reports a record 231 deaths yesterday and
the young democracy is in turmoil. The Tunisian tourism industry is uber
important and the COVID-19 outbreak has devastated families and communities. Similarly,
Botswana is taken off the bad list but the daily deaths are at 110 the
deadliest day ever.
In Asia, Bangladesh takes a dramatic turn for the worse with
daily new cases spiking wildly higher. Myanmar is reinfecting Bangladesh.
Southeast Asia is hit with a wave that ripples forwards and backwards. Very
interesting. The mess started in India then to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand,
Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia where the wave hit its end point,
then it washed backwards reinfecting Malaysia, that was on the mend, and then
back up along the coast through Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar, and now back to
Bangladesh.
Southeast Asia remains a hot zone. Those poor folks cannot
catch a break but better times may be ahead in a week or two. Thailand is in
bad shape on par with Malaysia.
Kazakhstan and Russia remain a tragic mess with daily new
cases remaining at record levels. China has its border gates locked telling the
coronavirus that no one is home here.
Israel, once a shining example on how to properly handle the
pandemic and vaccinate a population, is slapped in the face. Israel reports
2.1K cases yesterday the most for the current wave 5 underway. The pandemic is
a sticky bugs. Iran is a disaster at record daily cases and deaths. Ditto Iraq
and Lebanon. The Middle East is getting hit. Deaths in Israel remain subdued
likely because of the high vaccine participation rate.
Iceland is reporting big spikes in cases and the disturbing
aspect of both Iceland and Israel is that these are two of the most vaccinated
nations on earth. And yet the coronavirus cases continue climbing. People are
going to ask how effective are the vaccines? Interestingly, the maximum
vaccinations approach may lead to new variants that are more contagious but not
more deadly.
Japan’s daily cases remain elevated but the Olympics are
proceeding well. The naysayers have quieted down slightly and there is more
enthusiasm around watching the athletes and hearing their stories. The 2
biggest daily cases days for Japan for the current wave 5 occur on 7/23/21 and
7/26/21, yesterday, so the island nation remains in the covid soup juggling the
Olympics at the same time. Hats off to Japan.
The worst trouble spots are Southeast Asia, Central America
an Mexico, Middle East, Russia and Kazakhstan, and northern Africa.
The next list is the US states struggling with coronavirus
with the worst states listed at the bottom. For about 3 months, there were a
handful of states with data issues but as Keystone surmised, the problem was in
the daily case numbers which now rise in these states and match their elevated
and now rising active cases curves. Never try to fool a mathematician; they see
the truth in the numbers.
The peak in daily new cases and projections for the peaks in
active cases are provided as per the Keystone Model. The flattening and roll
over of the active cases curve forming the bell shape indicates the virus is
being defeated. Despite the doom and gloom in the media the US has a chance to
turn the corner this week if the daily cases counts remain off the top.
Maine (Second Wave/Continuous)
7/20/21 New Case Peak Date
8/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/21/21 New Case Peak Date
8/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/22/21
New Case Peak Date
8/19/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/22/21 New Case Peak Date
8/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/22/21 New Case Peak Date
8/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/22/21 New Case Peak Date
8/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/22/21 New Case Peak Date
8/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/22/21 New Case Peak Date
8/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/22/21 New Case Peak Date
8/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/23/21 New Case Peak Date
8/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/23/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 5)
8/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/23/21 New Case Peak Date
8/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/23/21 New Case Peak Date
8/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/23/21 New Case Peak Date
8/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for wave 5)
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/24/21 New Case Peak Date
8/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
8/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
8/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
8/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
8/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/26/21 New Case Peak Date
8/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
The 27 states above display active cases curves rising. The other 22 states have flat or slightly rising curves so many more states may be added to the bad list next time. The US is at an important juncture over the next 4 days. If wave 5 is going to be snuffed-out, it has to start this week with lower daily cases. Monday was a great start. The one state that displays an active cases curve that is falling lower is Colorado. They are the best state in the US. Coloradoans must be holed-up in their cabins smoking pot and staying away from each other.
The picture is not rosy with the states listed above since
their active cases charts will likely not roll over until mid-August (when the
healthcare workers will catch a break). So there is likely 2 to 3 weeks of
guaranteed hospital busy time in the covid wards but the data this week may
paint a brighter picture for mid-August and beyond.
California, Florida and Texas remain challenged. California
lifted its mask mandate on 6/15/21 which led to trouble. Los Angeles,
California, St Louis, Missouri and Savannah, Georgia, are implementing mask
mandates indoors regardless of vaccination status. Biden is mandating vaccines
for the VA (Veterans Administration).
Dit…. Dit …. Dit …. At 3:03 PM EST, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky
provides a CDC public briefing. The mask mandate is reimposed for vaccinated
individuals in indoor settings in areas of substantial and high transmission.
The transmission areas are color-coded on the United States map on the CDC COVIDData Tracker site under ‘County View’. There are four colors; blue for low
transmission (best), yellow for moderate transmission, orange for substantial
transmission and red for high transmission (worst).
Thus, for substantial and high transmission, the orange and
red colors, you wear a mask indoors regardless of vaccination status. If you
are a blue or yellow county, it is status quo where vaccinated folks do not
need a mask indoors but unvaccinated people should continue wearing masks
indoors under all scenarios.
That US map is impressive. As a chartist, for an interactive
map, that is a nice piece of work so congratulations to the CDC for that
graphic. Enjoy it, because Keystone only gives out one compliment per year.
The blue low transmission area is zero to 10 cases per
100,000 people over the last 7 days. Is that clear as mud? Over a one-week
period, low transmission means up to 10 new cases occur per every 100K people.
Yellow is moderate transmission where from 10 to 50 cases occur per 100K people
over the week’s time. Orange is substantial transmission which is a problem
when 50 to 100 new cases occur per 100K people and red is the high transmission
of over 100 new cases per 100K people over the 7-day period.
The CDC will need to encourage local television and radio
news broadcasts to provide the web site ink for the map or instruct others to
find out their county status. People do not realize that about 15% of Americans
are Luddites. These folks are not interested in computers and technology and
fancy gadgets and instead choose to live simple lives free of electrical
clutter. They listen to the radio and can be reached in that manner.
The US map on the CDC website allows a user to place themouse over a county and click all the details and study the color andsurrounding colors of other counties. The CDC should tell people that the
county map will be important for future pandemics as well. That way, we do not
have to lockdown the whole country at once ever again. The county-by-county
approach is better than state and nationwide mandates. The pandemic is a
learning process and Americans should take it easy on each other as the battle
rages on each day.
Walensky says some places are reporting transmission levels
of 300 new cases per 100K over a one-week period which is fire engine red in
color. Walensky explains that the mask mandate was necessary as new testing and
cluster study reveals that vaccinated people carry the same viral loads as
unvaccinated people and vaccinated people may be spreading the virus. This is
bombshell news.
Walensky says masks should be worn in schools in K through
12 including staff, teachers, students and visitors. She says the 13 to 17 year
old’s are not getting vaccinated at the pace hoped; many parents are reluctant
to have their kids vaccinated. This is one of the reasons for the mask mandate.
The CDC takes questions and Walensky proclaims that the
majority of cases are transmitted among unvaccinated people. This is incorrect
because the CDC admits it is not collecting data on the vaccinated people that
become sick with COVID-19. If the data is not collected, how can a conclusion
be stated? A few minutes later, the doctor repeats the statement saying, “We
believe …….”
This is the correct form of the statement. They do not know.
‘They believe most transmission is unvaccinated to unvaccinated’ but they
already had it wrong about the vaccinated carrying around equal viral loads and
most not even knowing they are sick. Vaccinated folks have been frolicking
inside and out for 2 months. Isn’t it logical that perhaps a substantive
portion of the spread is likely occurring via the vaccinated? The noble and
righteous vaccinated, that have beaten the dirty unwashed unvaccinated folks to
a pulp, may be more of a cause of wave 5 than anyone thought.
The chronology has been saying for a few weeks that there is
transmission via the vaccinated and how it was ridiculous that the data is not
collected and studied. A journalist explores this topic further with Walensky
who promises that the CDC is now monitoring breakthrough cases. Better late
than never.
There will be moans and groans over the new mask rules but
the adult babies will work through it. The management of the pandemic has taken
a positive direction. People need to be trained to reference the CDC county map
not only to see if the mask mandates for indoor use are in effect (orange and
red), or not (blue and yellow), which is useful now and for future pandemics.
Vaccinated Uncle Tommy, that finally got the vaccine last
Friday, throws his mask at the television set exclaiming, “I’m not going totake it anymore!” There will likely be a few folks that will refuse to wear
masks and walk around defiantly looking for a fight. Some states have passed
laws prohibiting mandates so there are likely legal challenges coming. Florida,
South Carolina and Texas are pushing back against mandates.
The unvaccinated chuckle because nothing changes for them.
They have been wearing masks the whole time when at the grocery store or post
office. It is the vaccinated people that have been spreading some of the virus
so, as dear ole Mom would say, “Folks living in glass houses should not be
throwing stones.”
The palace intrigue at the Wuhan Institute of Virology
continues. The Daily Caller and JusttheNews report that the France warned theUnited States in 2015 that China was closing French scientists and doctors off to
the research at the Wuhan Labs. The partnership ended. The communists likely
sucked all the information out of France and wanted to start mixing up some
witch’s brews.
Fauci and Collins must have looked like easy marks. The US
did not take France’s advice to steer clear of Wuhan. The drip, drip, drip of
information related to the Wuhan Lab leak theory continues. We need Clyde andThe Drifters to give us some Drip Drop as the Chinese water torture continues
for those involved with the communist labs. We will discover the truth sooner
or later.
The distribution of Moderna vaccine to other nations is
slowed. There are plant issues and other vague excuses but all is fine and on
track again. The Moderna shipments to South Korea are delayed for a few weeks. As
Keystone pointed out anecdotally, the Americans stepping up for vaccines these
days are requesting Moderna with frequency. The Whitehouse likely wants to make
sure there is enough Moderna supply available for the folks that may want
vaccinated. There must be a trend towards people asking for Moderna. “MotherModerna comes to me,” as the Beatles sing.
Of course, this is cynical thinking but you will have to
decide for yourself if you think this is happening behind the scenes, or not.
The US can give the other nations more Pfizer/BioNTech and J&J vaccine and
keep a bit more Moderna on tap for the states, right? There is nothing wrong
with that, right? In times of poor health and life and death, the mind must
wrestle with its moral boundaries. South Korea says while waiting for the
Moderna shipment in August, they have increased their use of the Pfizer vaccine
over the next 3 weeks.
Keep your fingers crossed that the US wave 5 rolls over and
dies. The daily case data for the next 4 days tells the story. America has a
chance to defeat the Delta variant this week. Most Americans do not know this
is happening because the cable news outlets are feeding the folks data and
charts that are 3 days old and peaking painting the worst-case scenario.
The days ahead will be interesting and can go either way. Do
not be surprised, however, if conditions improve despite Chicken Little’s
proclamations that the world is about to end. That was an acorn that hit
Chicken Little on the head not a coronavirus particle. The sky may not be
falling after all. We find out this week.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/28/21, at 7:00 AM EST: The US reports 61.6K daily new cases an unwelcome sight, however, it remains below the peak 69.7K peak last Friday. On the bad side, the 61.6K is above the 7-day MA trend line at 56.7K which provides fuel to keep the daily case counts high. Averaging the last 2 days would be 50K cases per day below the 7-day MA. The daily cases are dancing on a knife edge and will not commit to either direction as yet. Today's (hump day) daily cases are the next critical number. The US needs today's number to be at 50K or lower to provide optimism, a 50K to 57K case count is also good, but daily cases of 57K to 69K are going to spell trouble and daily new cases sneaking into the 70K to 85K range is uber bad since the cases would be testing the highs from wave 4. A move higher from there, above 85K cases, and America will go into panic mode again. This is the knife edge. Pray for today's daily cases to remain sub 57K. Whoa. Texas. Daily new cases pop to 8K cases the highest of the current wave and most since February. The Lonestar State just stepped in covid sh*t. Check your boots. The jump in Texas cases is extremely bad news. It verifies that the virus spread from Central America and Mexico is moving north into the southern border states. Also, the migrants crossing the southern border are bringing coronavirus with them. The US testing of the new entries into America is woefully inadequate. The border is overrun with folks. Texas, Florida, South Carolina and other republican-leaning states take a hardline against mandates so the crap is going to hit the fan this week as cases rise in these states and they remain resistant to lockdowns and masking rules. California remains in trouble but the peak in daily cases remains at 7/23/21. Arkansas is a covid epicenter at 2.1K daily new cases yesterday a new high. Holy smokes! Louisiana daily new cases sky rocket to 6.8K daily new cases the highest of the pandemic. The Delta variant is slapping Louisiana and Arkansas hard. Cases remain elevated in Mississippi. Nevada is another mess reporting 1.1K daily new cases yesterday the highest of the current wave and most since late January. In Las Vegas, COVID-19 gleefully jumps from bed to bed at the hotels where the comingling of naughty bodies occurs. Oh for Pete's sake. Oregon explodes higher with new cases over 1K yesterday the overtaking the prior wave and now equaling the January numbers. It's the ports. The outbreaks and spreads develop more often than not at the port cities and take off from there. Oregon has to figure out what is going on. Jacksonville, Florida, reports hospitals operating at capacity with covid patients. The case numbers and other coronavirus issues are swept under the rug with DeSantis's broom.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/28/21, at 8:00 AM EST: France reports elevated daily cases at 26.9K the highest since April. There are likely lots of protesters getting sick with coronavirus. The French love their wine, baguette, cigarettes, and of course beautiful women, as all ladies are, so the virus spreads across the amorous countryside. The rest of Europe show cases coming off the top. President Macron needs to quit goofing off and get to work. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Israel worsen. Indonesia and Malaysia struggle with deaths at record levels. Cases continue decreasing off the top for the UK for over a week. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is all smiles. The UK is going in the right direction but hospitalizations will continue increasing slightly over the next couple weeks, then flatten and roll over lower. The UK is relaxing travel restrictions on Americans and Europeans starting next week (no quarantine). Japan daily cases remain lower than the peak on 7/23/21 so that is good news. USA gymnast star Simone Biles drops out of competition citing mental anguish but she still may compete in a few days. The pandemic stress takes a toll on everyone. The daily case counts at the Olympic Village take a back seat to the competitions and medal winners as they should. The Games are moving along fine.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/28/21, at 9:00 AM EST: Pfizer says results of their vaccine study on children between 5 and 14 years old will be available in September. A vaccine for children may be approved in the October or November time frame but this is after the school year starts. They are likely deciding on the dosage. The Whitehouse ordered more Pfizer vaccine the other day almost as if they know how it all plays out ahead of time. Kids will probably be asked to kneel in front of Uncle Pfizer and then sent home for Thanksgiving vacation. Pfizer says a third booster shot protects against the Delta variant. Big pharma says the vaccine efficacy wanes over time in protecting against mild disease, infections and hospitalizations. Pfizer is laying the groundwork for booster shots and the Whitehouse ordered more Pfizer vaccine a few days ago. If you had the shot in December through February, you will likely be lined-up for a booster shot in September or October. Pfizer reports earnings that catapult to the moon. PFE stock jumps over +4% this week. Build a new factory in Africa, Pfizer, and tell your buddies to build some, too; in Asia and South America.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/28/21, at 9:30 AM EST: News reports say President Biden is planning more mandatory vaccine shots for federal workers; he announced mandatory shots for the VA a couple days ago. Weeks ago, Sleepy Joe said he would not institute mandatory vaccines but now flip-flops. Biden is asked if all federal employees should be vaccinated. The president proclaims that "it is under consideration" and decrees, "If you're not vaccinated, you are not nearly as smart as I thought you were." How does he think that is going to help the situation? He digs in deeper. "We have a pandemic because of the unvaccinated, and they're sowing enormous confusion." The majority of unvaccinated folks are providing a one-finger salute to the ignorant words. Calling people stupid only solidifies their stance. Thousands of Americans hear this statement and say they will now definitely not get the vaccine. A little tip; do not call people stupid if you want them to do something (get vaccinated). You can hear the collective outrage. The president blames the unvaccinated when he and the medical folks always knew that 20% of the country did not want the vaccine. They are the stupid ones for not planning properly. It is even better. Biden blames Americans for creating confusion when Sleepy Joe, King Donnie, Lord Fauci and the rest of the Hee-Haw gang including the CDC, the corrupt WHO and the NIH knee-deep in the Wuhan Lab leak scandal, are the carnival barkers of confusion and chaos for 18 months. The pandemic is going off the rails. Things get ugly when the finger-pointing begins. Hope that the US daily cases remain subdued this week.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/28/21, at 10:00 AM EST: The CDC's new messaging for masks may be jumbled already. Cable news outlets are reporting that masks are required in high transmission areas, as per the CDC county map on the CDC COVID Data Tracker website, which are red areas, which is correct, but masks are also required for the orange areas that are substantial transmission zones. The map is located under the 'Your Community' tab and then click 'County View'. The messaging has to be super simple for folks. Tell Americans to look at the CDC county map and if vaccinated, blue and yellow means you do not need a mask indoors. Orange and red means you should use a mask indoors. Very simple. Unvaccinated rules do not change; try to wear a mask indoors. People are going to get confused thinking only the red counties are the mask areas. Pound it into their heads. Blue and yellow good, orange and red bad. Blue and yellow good, no masks for vaccinated, orange and red bad, masks for everyone. Repeat over and over.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/28/21, at 10:00 AM EST: The pandemic confusion and chaos is in full swing. CNN keeps reporting that vaccinated people should wear a mask in high transmission counties which is correct but the orange substantial transmission area is not also identified. Humorously, although no one is in the mood for laughing, CNN displays the CDC county map, sort of. They changed the graphics so what should be blue is white. You have to laugh out loud. How do you tell people to mask in orange and red but no mask in blue and yellow when the map is white and yellow. The color was likely changed because it displays better on television but in so doing CNN is contributing to the pandemic confusion. If you cannot show the true colors, blue, yellow, orange and red, do not show the map at all. Walensky explains the new mask guidelines by citing the "new science" concerning viral loads carried by vaccinated individuals. Fauci points his index finger in the air decreeing, "We're not changing science." You have to laugh. These folks nurture and foster pandemic confusion as if it was a newborn. Four colors are more complicated than needed on the CDC map to communicate the mask rules. Actually, only one color is needed. The CDC county map is an impressive interactive graphic. The programmers should place a layer on the model where the orange and red counties are shaded dark gray and the blue and yellow areas have no color. This would be a far easier map for folks to understand masking since the CDC would tell them to look at the map and if vaccinated and living in the gray shaded area, use a mask indoors. Four colors are overkill and create confusion. Here is a trick that all seasoned authors know. To reach the maximum amount of people with any message, write it as if you are communicating with a fifth-grader (11 or 12-year old). If a fifth-grader understands what you write or present, you will reach the maximum amount of people with that message. Thus, for the CDC county map, and new mask rules, people would only have to check to see if a gray shaded region is over their location. It is basic and simple, which is what people like, and a fifth-grader could easily understand that map. Also, for the Luddites that shun computers and smartphones, the map could be photocopied with the current date shown, and handed out in hardcopy (the map can be printed on a sheet of paper with a black and white copier or printer).
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/28/21, at 11:30 AM EST: The CDC messaging about masks is getting muddled. Some news outlets are simply reporting that anyone vaccinated now has to wear a mask indoors which is not true. Vaccinated folks have to check if they are in the substantial or high transmission counties (orange and red) on the CDC county map to see if a mask is recommended indoors. A lot of vaccinated people are up in arms, working themselves into a tizzy, when all they have to do is check the CDC's county map and many will discover nothing has changed for them; they still do not have to wear a mask indoors (blue and yellow). The new mask requirements for indoors mainly applies to the southern and western states that are bleeding orange and red on the county map.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 7/28/21: Google tells employees to get vaccinated if they want to return to the office, if not, the employee can work from home but only until October. Get down on your knees, and roll up your sleeves. Deadline reports that Netflix imposes a vaccination mandate for actors and crews working on its US productions. Cast and roadies, get down on your knees, and roll up your sleeves. Google and Netflix are scoring brownie points with the Biden administration by following Sleepy Joe's lead of mandating vaccinations for the Veterans Administration. It proceeds as if it is orchestrated. Perhaps Facebook, Apple or Amazon will kneel to kiss the Whitehouse ring tomorrow announcing mandates? Apple has delayed its date for employees to return to the office. Florida republican Governor DeSantis, that is handling a major outbreak in the state, and just stopped providing daily coronavirus case numbers, comes out from under his desk to speak. DeSantis is defiant against masks despite 1 in 5 new COVID-19 cases in the US occurring in Florida. DeSantis will fight mandates in schools. DeSantis proclaims, "Open schools are not a major factor in the transmission of the virus in the community. I believe in empowering them (parents) with a choice; no parent should be required to send their child to in-person instruction if they don't want to." DeSantis straps himself to the covid mast remaining defiant with each breath as coronavirus engulfs the Sunshine State.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/28/21: Facebook mandates vaccines for workers returning to the office. That was easily predictable. CEO Zuckerberg kneels to kiss the Biden mandate ring. Who's next? The orchestrated move of big tech companies, one by one, imposing vaccine mandates on employees, proceeds at a smooth and rhythmic pace like Pachelbel's Canon in D. President Biden pleads with the unvaccinated folks to get the shots. The president decrees, "We still have a lot of people not vaccinated. It is a pandemic of the unvaccinated." Biden tells people to get vaccinated to "protect yourself and the children out there." People aren't listening or paying attention to Sleepy Joe's pleas because they are too busy figuring out the new mask guidance.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/29/21, at 3:00 AM EST: BAD NEWS. Bad news for the world data and bad news for the United States. The world's daily cases jump to 659K the most since May. There are 10.1K worldwide deaths yesterday the deadliest day since early June. The world is going in the wrong direction and so is America. The week takes a turn for the worse. In the US, the encouraging daily cases number on Monday at 52.1K (revised higher) is blown out of the water by 78K daily case on Tuesday and 85K cases yesterday. Bad news. The daily cases now exceed the height of the wave 4 outbreak. It is sad to see. Wave 5 just got deadly serious. 483 Americans die yesterday the deadliest day since early June. Not good. Rather than thinking the entire United States is going to covid Hell in a handbasket, perhaps it is the red zones that are experiencing the escalating cases. Texas reports 9.5K daily new cases a record for the current wave that is going parabolic. It is bad news in the Lonestar State. Migrants entering the US via Mexico are increasing the virus spread. The Rio Grande region in southern Texas reports that 20% of the migrants entering the southern border are unaccompanied children. 71 Texans die yesterday the most since April. California cases remain below the recent highs so that is a sliver of positivity. Florida resumes the daily new cases data showing a big spike yesterday to 16K cases the most since January. In fact, there are only about a half dozen days in January that are higher than the 16K. Florida is in major trouble. The large senior citizen population in the state is probably huddled around television sets afraid to venture out. 92 Floridians die yesterday the deadliest day since May. Governor DeSantis better save the day or his hopes for the presidency in 2024 will be flushed down the toilet. New York reports 2.4K daily new cases the most of the current wave. Thus, four highly-populated states are highlighted above with three deteriorating and one flatlining. These numbers greatly add to the US overall total. How about the southern states? North Carolina reports a spike high in cases for this wave overtaking the prior wave. Alabama cases worsen. Ditto Tennessee, Georgia (big spike higher), Indiana, Virginia, Louisiana (highest cases ever 2 days ago), Kentucky, Washington, Oregon, Maryland, Kansas, Utah, Nevada, Vermont, the list goes on. Mississippi reports a big spike in daily cases overnight. Ditto Alaska. New Mexico and Arizona are only slowly bumping higher in daily cases, not to any great extent yet, so this verifies how the migrants are adding to the COVID-19 spread since they are entering Texas at the most southern part of the United States (Rio Grande Valley). Texas Governor Abbott bans ground transportation of migrants around the state to try and stop the spread of coronavirus. A stink develops that the US government is releasing migrants into communities and the folks are testing positive for coronavirus. The southern border is a mess. The daily cases jump higher in America over the last 2 days a disappointing development. The US wave 5 is biting hard.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/29/21, at 3:30 AM EST: Looking at the county map on the CDC COVID Data Tracker site, the virus spread has engulfed the south. The outbreak moves up though Virginia to southern Ohio. Indiana is infected with cases rising. The new CDC mask guidelines are confusing the public since the media is confused sometimes purposely. It is worrisome that in southern Texas, the Rio Grande Valley region, the migrant hotspot area, the CDC county map shows two counties as blue (low transmission). That has to be wrong. It makes no sense. Seeing that on the CDC county map makes you question the entire map.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/29/21, at 3:45 AM EST: Mexico daily new cases spike to another high for the current wave testing levels not seen since January. The rise in cases in Mexico verifies the rise in cases in Texas as migrants move north. France reports 28K daily new cases another record high for the current wave. Spain, Portugal and Netherlands cases keep coming off the top which is good news. Italy reports 5.6K daily new cases the most of the current wave. Cases are bumping higher in the boot-shaped nation but are not spiking higher. Europe is improving and should be optimistic but France is the trouble spot and Italy is on shaky ground. The UK improves. Boris is strutting around with his chest puffed-out. Detractors however, say there is less testing occurring in the UK. The football (soccer) games created a lot of infections and after those young partiers became sick, building antibodies, along with the over 70% of adults vaccinated, and the people with natural antibodies, sends the UK towards herd immunity. Good on them. Morocco daily cases sky rocket higher doubling the prior highs for the pandemic. Morocco is in serious trouble. Israel cases spike higher a record for the current wave. Israel's great vaccination program is not stopping the current outbreak. Iran and Iraq continue reporting record daily cases. Kazakhstan is a mess with record cases and deaths occurring daily. Malaysia, Thailand and Bangladesh report all-time record highs in cases maintaining Southeast Asia as the top COVID-19 hot spot and epicenter in the world. Japan worsens dramatically with daily new cases spiking to 7.5K cases only surpassed by 3 other days during the entire pandemic. It's bad. 193 people associated with the Olympics Village have been infected. The Olympics are going well. Cuba reports record daily cases for the pandemic.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/29/21, at 4:00 PM EST: Even though the US vaccination program started before other nations, Canada, UK, Spain, France and Germany have overtaken America jabbing more of their populations. New York City offers $100 gift cards to anyone getting the vaccination at a city clinic. Some vaccinated New Yorker's cry like babies saying they never received $100 bucks when they took the shot. Republican senators and governors continue to cheerlead vaccinations after months of indifference. Louisiana Senator Kennedy is the latest proclaiming, "This (COVID-19) will kill you." Kennedy sees Louisiana slipping into covid Hell so he covers his butt telling folks to get vaccinated.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/29/21, at 4:30 AM EST: The CDC's messaging about masks is getting lost. Both democrat and republican media are providing incomplete or misinformation confusing people. News shows will say a mask is required for vaccinated people in the hot spots. They rhetorically ask, "What is a hot spot?" They can send people to the CDC county map but they do not; they want it to be confusing to score political points. The country is sick. Other announcers tell folks to wear a mask if in the red zone but it is the orange and red counties not just red. CNN continues displaying the CDC county map with the blue changed to white on the map; that ought to clarify things. You have to laugh, otherwise you will cry. It is America Mediocrity on full display daily. The new mask mandates may deter vaccinations. Some unvaccinated people will choose to ignore the daily noise, confusion and chaos surrounding the pandemic and choose to mask every time they are indoors, such as a grocery store, staying away from the indoor situation to every extent possible, and wait and see how it goes. If you have to wear a mask even if vaccinated, in the orange and red counties, people may wonder why bother getting vaccinated. Just wear a mask. Of course, masks may only provide minimal protection from infection whereas the vaccines are protecting against severe illness, hospitalizations and deaths. As mentioned many times in the chronology, one of the major problems with the pandemic is that no one is in charge for the last 18 months. Everyone is in charge spouting off with their own edicts on television and on the internet and yet no one is in charge. If you ask 10 pundits about coronavirus, you receive 14 different answers (an old economist joke).
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/29/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The Biden administration should consider offering free antibody tests to unvaccinated people. One of the key reasons that people do not want vaccinated is because they think they already had coronavirus but if you ask them if they saw a doctor the answer is no. An offer can be extended to unvaccinated people, that are willing to have an open mind, for a free antibody test but the person should informally agree (you would never hold them to it) that if they do not have antibodies, they should take the shot. If they have adequate antibodies, the medical folks should not force them to take a shot but they can take the opportunity to tout the vaccine if that is what they want to do. A person may feel invincible and overconfident thinking they already had covid but if they are confronted with a lab result that says they have zero antibodies and never had the virus, that would likely make a lot of folks second think their reasoning and roll up their sleeve. The CDC is on record and plainly states on its website that it is not in favor of and does not recommend antibody tests to determine if you need vaccinated. Well, this door looks closed.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/29/21, at 7:00 AM EST: Apple announces a mask mandate for its stores. If you want to purchase an iPhone, mask up. It is not a vaccine mandate, but a mask mandate will keep Apple in good graces with the Biden administration. Apple has delayed its workforce returning to the office so it skirts the mandatory vaccine decision, for now. Apple CEO Cook kneels to kiss the Whitehouse ring. The line behind him grows. Walt Disney World in Florida imposes masks on all guests and employees at indoor locations for everyone including Mickey Mouse. Ditto Disneyland in California. Prince Charming does not kneel to kiss Sleeping Beauty instead he kisses the Whitehouse ring. Twitter closes its New York and San Francisco locations after they were just reopened. The Shake Shack hamburger shops outdo everyone. The burger joint requires all employees and customers to be vaccinated, or you are not welcome. It is the 'Soup Nazi' character from Seinfeld. "If you are not vaccinated, no soup for you! Nothing! Leave!" The list of companies paying homage to King Biden and his vaccine mandate is growing with Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, Lyft, Saks and the Washington Post (King Bezos) jumping on the inoculation bandwagon. One by one, they kneel and kiss the Biden mandate ring. People are either kneeling to receive vaccinations or kneeling to kiss rings; there is a lot of kneeling occurring.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/29/21, at 11:00 AM EST: The Lollapalooza rock concert begins today in Chicago, through the weekend, with 100K people attending mainly young partiers. Concert organizers claim they have it under control. People must show proof of vaccination, your papers, please, or proof of a negative test within the last 72 hours. If unvaccinated, you are supposed to wear a mask at the event. That's funny. As soon as an unvaccinated young man enters the venue, he will ditch his mask, that ends up in a mud puddle, trampled by thousands of Doc Marten's. How is he supposed to talk to cute chicks and try and get dates if he is wearing a mask while others are not? Lollapalooza may be the superspreader of all superspreader events. Time will tell. Infection incubation time is 7 to 10 days thus, watch the daily new cases in Illinois between 8/6/21 and 8/9/21. Young people will show up at hospitals sick as dogs with one thing in common; they will all be wearing a Lollapalooza tee shirt.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/29/21, at 1:00 PM EST: Florida Governor DeSantis is in Utah, yucking it up with other republicans at a conference, while the COVID-19 cases turn Florida counties blood red (high transmission of virus). DeSantis remains defiant on mandates throwing red meat to the republican crowd. DeSantis decrees, "I think it's very important that we say, unequivocally, no to lockdowns, no to school closures, no to restrictions, and no to mandates!" The crowd goes wild. DeSantis said he will not let America turn into a "Faucian dystopia." Dr Fauci receives a backhand slap from Governor DeSantis.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/29/21, at 2:00 PM EST: Pundits continue touting the line that 99% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated people. Hey stupid, it is because they are not counting the vaccinated people. It is silly, but the half-truth is repeated hourly in the media. The CDC says it will now begin tracking the data for vaccinated people because of the prevalence of breakthrough cases. Way to stay on the ball (said cynically). The vaccinated people should have been counted the whole time but the Whitehouse is likely worried it would deter vaccinations (they wanted everyone to think there were no breakthrough cases but that cat is now out of the bag). People see through the bull sh*t. LA County says that 26% of the cases in early July are breakthrough cases so a 75%/25% split is more likely the real numbers for the unvaccinated to vaccinated patients hospital ratio. Thus, it would be more correct if the pundits would decree that about 75% of the hospitalizations are unvaccinated people. You do not hear this because it does not encourage vaccinations like the 99% number does but it is the truth. Two other hospitals in the US also report an approximate split of 75%/25%. There are vaccinated, partially vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospitals; less of the former group and more of the latter group. Medical pundits are now claiming that 85% of the US needs vaccinated to beat the India B1617 variant (delta). This is all adults if you remove 15% for children. It is likely a lofty number for the sake of setting a high goal but it does not take into account natural antibodies. The refusal to discuss herd immunity in the context of both vaccinations and natural antibodies is a disservice to the public. The Whitehouse simply wants everyone to shut up and get vaccinated. Many doctors are telling patients to not get vaccinated if they have adequate antibodies. These folks are likely responding to polls saying they will not get vaccinated but it is for a good, logical reason, after discussions with their doctor. This natural immunity issue, and in relation to herd immunity, needs to be discussed more in public. About 57% of the US will be vaccinated in a couple weeks and adding that to the 10% to 30% with natural antibodies is 67% to 87% herd immunity; that is pretty darn good. With companies just mandating vaccines and official vaccine approvals coming, the United States is likely in far better shape than the doom and gloom described daily. The cases in UK, Spain, Portugal and Netherlands, increased sharply, and are now coming down just as fast, so perhaps the same path is ahead for the Delta variant in America. In 2 or 3 weeks, the US wave 5 may be beaten down with happier times ahead. Jefferies is the latest company to require vaccines for office employees. Blackrock, Morgan Stanley and Jefferies show that Wall Street is forming a conga line in front of King Biden's throne, kneeling to kiss the vaccine mandate ring one by one.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/29/21, at 4:24 PM EST: President Biden speaks from the East Room. "Today I want to talk to you about COVID-19." Biden announces a vaccine requirement for federal workers. Get down on your knees, and roll up your sleeves. The president wants that goal of 70% of US adults vaccinated with at least one shot even if you are strapped down and the needle has to be stuck into your forearm. Americans are getting forced to take the vaccine as a condition of working. Biden says $100 will be provided to anyone that gets fully vaccinated (so you likely do not get the dough until the second shot). He says the Kroger grocery stores used the $100 incentive and the vaccination rate of employees jumped from 50% to 75%. New Mexico, Colorado and Ohio have also used cash incentives successfully. $100 will pay a bill or two, maybe buy some shoes for a child, fix a car, or buy some beer, pot or crack. The president plans to add the vaccines to the service members (the military) vaccination list. The troops will kneel eventually. President Biden is exerting a pressure campaign to get the country vaccinated and stop the India wave (delta) but many folks are apathetic. He says the new Delta wave is "infecting the unvaccinated." His voice is hoarse. "Vaccines are the best defense, the very best defense." The speech is well written and describes the complicated pandemic in about the simplest way possible which will reach as many Americans as possible. Biden is asked about boosters. "As of now, my medical advisers say no." But he says the US has the supply of vaccine if it is needed. Why the lies about boosters? Tell Americans the truth. They can take it. If you received the vaccine in December of January, you will likely need a booster (third shot) in September and the boosters will likely begin with the most vulnerable folks and those over 60 or 70 years old. Israeli studies show the vaccines losing effectiveness after 6 to 8 months and Israel has begun jabbing boosters in citizens that are over 60 years old and 5 months along from the last shot. Tell people the truth because next month you will tell them they need boosters and they will say they were lied to again. The need for a booster, or not, will likely have a minimal impact on someone's decision to take the vaccine. Biden declares, "People are dying that don't have to." He repeats the ongoing idiot story that is on democrat media that people sick with coronavirus, about to have a breathing tube installed, scream out that they are now ready for the vaccine. Alas, the doctor or nurse has to tell them it is too late for a vaccine. It is silliness. Those are some extremely dumb people that are wheeled into ICU and say, "Duh, I'll take the vaccine now." It is laughable. Either that, or the stories are embellished, or a little of both. Do not insult people's intelligence. Another video shows a lady in ICU, talking fine, proclaiming that she would definitely take the vaccine if she could do it over. After the statement, she looks up at the nurse waiting for nods of agreement that she said the right thing. They probably gave her free medical care if she did the PSA. All the world is a stage, to paraphrase Billy Shakespeare. And of course most of the patients shown on television that died, or that are in the ICU, are overweight and obese. A young man died in one of the southern states and his picture revealed an obese teenager. It's sad. Americans eat too much. If you are overweight or obese, talk to your doctor about getting the vaccination, since fat folks will have far more complications from COVID-19. Biden says people think the vaccines are too new. He says the vaccines were developed after "decades, decades of research." Keystone explained this previously. Stretching it, the mRNA technology has been explored about 25 years but has only hit its stride over the last few years. I guess that is decades and decades. You decide. This is the only missed opportunity in the speech. Biden is correct that the number one reason for not getting vaccinated is that the shots are too new. People want to wait a while and see what happens. Biden should have told folks that virtually every vaccine over the last few decades has shown its major side effects within 6 months of time after it was widely distributed. The shots started in December. The US is going into the eighth month of vaccines and Biden could have touted this as showing that the major vaccine side effects are likely all known at this time. He could tout this line tomorrow or in subsequent speeches. Biden proclaims, "It is about life and death, life and death." He opines, "With freedom, comes responsibility, be responsible and get vaccinated." He offers paid leave to anyone willing to get vaccinated. He tells employers that the time-off will be paid for and to encourage employees to go get the shot. Also to take their family, or Mom and Dad, all that time off to get the shots will be paid for by the government. King Biden decrees, "Every federal employee will be asked to attest to their vaccination." Your papers, please. Biden proclaims, "Every school should be open. We are giving them the tools." He touts the economy as the speech ends boasting about today's big GDP number at 6.5% (Gross Domestic Product; the number is large because it is coming off a small base and fueled by fiscal (Congress) and monetary (Federal Reserve) stimulus). Biden takes a few questions but he simply repeats parts of his speech. The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows the vaccination trend curling higher which puts smiles on the Whitehouse and CDC faces. Vaccinations are running at an average rate of about 514K shots per day. Americans are stepping up to the plate and rolling up their sleeves. Give them some credit. After 18 months of pandemic, Americans are going to have to learn to row in the same direction, despite the boat being filled with vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/29/21, at 6:00 PM EST: Arkansas Governor Hutchinson declares a state public health emergency so funds will be released to help handle COVID-19 patients. Hospitals are expanding beds to handle the caseload. In Texas, Governor Abbott's executive order permitting Texas state troopers to stop cars if they suspect migrants are inside that may spread virus is causing controversy. Abbott is trying to stop the new pandemic wave that is starting to spin out of control in the Lonestar State. Abbott restricts ground transportation of migrants that "pose a risk of carrying COVID-19 into Texas communities." US Attorney General Garland pushes back at Texas asking Abbott to rescind the order or legal action will follow. Garland decrees that the new order targeting migrants is "dangerous and unlawful." The migrants coming up from Central America and Mexico, a virus hot spot over the last couple months are, in some portion, spreading virus in and around the southern border (Rio Grande Valley).
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/30/21, at 3:00 AM EST: More bad news for America that reports 92.5K cases yesterday. The US daily new cases are going parabolic (vertical). That's a shame. Pundits are turning more gloomy saying the R naught rate of transmission is higher than expected and on the magnitude of the very contagious chicken pox outbreaks. The red bars shown in the US daily cases chart above shows how the upward slope of wave 5 is similar to prior waves especially wave 3. The fancy R naught calculation is picking up the wild parabolic spikes that occurred in nations such as Spain and Netherlands. The infections catapulted higher going parabolic (exponential; vertical) in a heartbeat. However, the daily new cases in both countries are retreating nearly as fast. The Delta variant is more contagious but it seems to burn itself out faster. US infections may catapult higher, going exponential, and the 92.5K cases for yesterday show this is happening, but after a few days may retreat just as fast. The US wave 5 is a different animal than the prior waves. The new high in daily cases for wave 5 pushes the target date forward to 8/27/21 for flattening the active cases curve. Thus, US healthcare workers will be very busy through mid-August. The next 2 weeks will likely be intense for hospitals as the number of hospital admissions jump sharply. People will be in a tizzy but perhaps the spike in misery will be short-lived. 398 Americans die yesterday with the 7-day MA trend line at 303 deaths per day. In a nation of 330 million people, that is not a lot of deaths, only 0.0001% ((303/330,000,000)x100 to make it a percent). If you are hiding under your bed these days, only poking your head out now and then to watch a doom and gloom news segment on television, realize that each day you only have a 1 in a million chance of dying from COVID-19. A person has a 1 in 15,300 chance of getting struck by lightning in their lifetime. The comparison is a bit of apples and oranges but you get the point. The southern and western states need to bear down on the wave 5 outbreak while other states remain vigilant. The scary stuff occurring in parts of the country may encourage the states that are doing better to pay close attention and limit social behavior for the next couple weeks. Texas worsens reporting 12K daily new cases the most of the current wave now parabolic. California cases move sideways. Florida is a disaster with 18K daily new cases now testing the highest levels ever of the pandemic. While eating chocolate mousse, DeSantis is telling the maitre d and busboy that he has handled the pandemic better than any other state. Cases are backing down off the top for most of the US southern states so that is a positive development. 250K Pennsylvanians have not shown up for their second shot of Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech so the Keystone State is sending out text message reminders asking folks to come back in and finish-up. That is a quarter of a million people in one state that only has the minimal protection of about 30% to 50% after one shot, only a small amount better than the unvaccinated. But, and it is a big but, the vaccinations protect against severe illness, hospitalization and death. When US wave 4 rolled over and died in the back half of April and May, many people said heck with the second shot since the pandemic is over, but this is not the case in July. In a 2-shot regimen, history says about 10% of the people do not return for the second shot and Pennsylvania's data, although it is 250K people, is below the average expected which is a positive.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/30/21, at 3:30 AM EST: Russia reports 799 deaths from COVID-19, again. There are many days of 798 and 799 deaths because the state-run media, under dirtbag Dictator Putin, will not permit numbers above 8 hundo to be reported. Isn't the world a lovely place? Not. Countries that went with the Sputnik V vaccine are irate at Russia that is having trouble providing second shots. What did those countries expect? When you lay in bed with dictatorships and dirtbag communists like Russia and China (CCP), that is what you get. Smoke and mirrors. Kazakhstan, a country no one talks about, is in horrific shape with daily cases in an exponential phase that will not stop. China has to be watching its northwest border with Kazakhstan like a hawk. France is over 6 million total cases but finally catches a break with 25.2K cases yesterday less than the 28.0K the prior day. Perhaps France experienced the quick move higher in cases, as US models predict, and will now experience a drop-off. The UK crosses 5.8 million total cases milestone. The UK reports 31.1K cases bumping higher over the last couple days so PM Johnson should not celebrate the pullback in infections too fast. The record daily cases and deaths continue in Southeast Asia. Japan turns extremely ugly with 9.6K daily new cases, the highest ever for the pandemic, and it is a shame as the Olympics are ending the first week with another week and more to go. Tokyo extends its state of emergency through August which now expands to other regions including Osaka. Chalk it up to bad luck. If Japan would have had the Olympics in June the timing would have been perfect with the low case counts, or a month from now things will likely be better. There is some good luck, however, because the infections in the Olympics Village are remaining steady and not increasing to any great extent. It is important to get the athletes safely through the Games and Japan is succeeding as they deal with the pandemic now spiraling out of control. The Japanese are warming-up to the Olympics and the negative chatter is fading away, but most of the people likely do not realize that the pandemic has gone parabolic. Fickle humans. US gymnast Suni Lee, from Minnesota, takes the place of Simone Biles and grabs the gold. A star is born. Hong Kong developers offer a $1.4 million apartment as a lottery prize for people willing to get vaccinated. That's funny. Hong Kong is now just another dirtbag communist city. The mainland CCP *ss wipes took over control of Hong Kong. The region is now a commie dead zone. The people know that even if they get vaccinated and win the apartment, in a few months the communists will boot them out and take it back. This is the way communism works. Sadly, some Hong Kong folks probably figure if they get covid and die, so be it; that may be better than living under communist rule.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/30/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The CDC is releasing a report today that provides back-up information on why the mask guidelines were modified. The report is guaranteed to generate controversy. Walensky, Fauci, Zients, Murthy, Slavitt and others will be slapped around today but they will be pushing back touting the CDC and Whitehouse line telling folks to get vaccinated for the umpteenth time. Unvaccinated Keystone receives a call from Nurse Goodbody which always brightens the day. The smart, pretty and lovely nurse wants to schedule a time for the vaccination. After a few weeks, and in consultation with Dr Ben Dover, the nurse says the shots can be provided into the buttocks. Keystone is ambidextrous and does not want a sore arm. He requests the first shot in the left cheek and future second shot in the right cheek. There is one more potential snag in getting the shot, however. With all the incentives, Keystone is hoping there is an offer of free Speedo's if he gets the shot. Nurse Goodbody is checking the internet for offers. The appointment is set and Keystone looks forward to receiving the shot from Nurse Goodbody. Before quickly hanging up, the nurse tells Keystone to show up on time because Nurse Ratched, nicknamed the battleaxe, runs a tight ship when she is administering vaccine shots. Click. The phone is disconnected. Keystone yells, "Nurse Ratched!"
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/30/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Uber joins the vaccine mandate club, especially seeing that Lyft, its competitor, was already there. Companies keep lining-up imposing vaccine mandates on employees, and in some instances, customers. Corporations kneel and kiss the Biden vaccine mandate ring. No tickey, no laundry, as the saying goes. Emma, a café owner on a fictitious Florida boardwalk, places a sign in the window that reads, "No Shirt, No Shoes, No Vaccine, No Service." The percent of unvaccinated folks in the US, adding in those that have taken one shot but have not returned for the second, is a substantive amount, say 1 in 5 people (20%), maybe as much as 1 in 4 people (25%), or more. When it is a tiny percentage of resistance on any matter, it can be crushed like a bug, but Sleepy Joe Biden may be surprised at the can of worms he is opening with the law of unintended consequences put in play. If corporations and businesses think they are hot shots placing a full nelson around an employees' necks while jabbing them, thinking that will proceed swimmingly, they are stupid. What happens when a business needs workers but they canned a dozen hard-working employees over the vaccine mandates? The workers are standing on the sidewalk telling the boss, 'hey, let us back in, we can work and wear a mask if that is what you want'. Beating people into submission never works out well. You catch more bees with honey than vinegar, as dear ole Mom would say. Some unvaccinated employees will welcome the company mandate since testing would be required a couple times each week, paid for by the company, which are opportunities to goof-off on the company dime. The worker will have to visit a lab for the testing and will do some shopping at Walmart or elsewhere along the way, while on the company clock. The eggheads in charge of the pandemic are clueless in the areas of behavioral psychology and societal and crowd behavior, and have no idea how most Americans live and get by each day. The poor and lower class have to work many angles each day to make ends meet. It is a different life than that lived by the fortunate upper middle class and the elite privileged. America is the land of the have's and have not's. The pandemic is a tough nut to crack. Everyone is doing the best they can, and pursuing the paths they feel are best for them and their families, so everyone should respect each other and cut each other some slack. The US wave 5 may spurt a bit higher but if it follows the path of other nations, cases may return to earth quickly in a week or two.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/30/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Pfizer says its vaccine is 96% effective after 2 months, 83% effective after 6 months and 97% effective at preventing hospitalizations, all good selling points for those thinking about getting vaccinated. 30 Broadway Theaters in New York City will require vaccines for workers, staff, audience, theatergoers, even the popcorn maker and hat check girl. The restrictions include the New York City Opera and Carnegie Hall. Keystone is standing on a New York street when a man approaches asking, "How do I get to Carnegie Hall." After a couple-second pause, Keystone replies, "Practice."
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 7/30/21, at 3:00 PM EST: The CDC releases data to back up the changes in mask guidelines. The CDC bases much of its decision on a study of the Provincetown, Massachusetts, outbreak. 882 cases are linked to this cluster. Keeping it in context, the area's population is 215K and there are about 750K in the Cape Cod area vacationing, especially in July and August, so talking general numbers there are a 1,000 cases out of a million people (only 0.1%). 4 people are hospitalized and there are no deaths from the cluster. The shocking statistic is that 74% (346 of 469 cases when the study was tabulated) of the people infected (testing positive) are vaccinated. Most have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic. Interestingly, that means 26% are unvaccinated and none of them died. The CDC decrees, "The war has changed." The virus can be transmitted between vaccinated people and then to unvaccinated folks. Up to now, the unvaccinated were blamed for all the pandemic ills (and still are). The CDC says the Delta variant causes more severe illness. They say it is as contagious as chicken pox (extremely high transmissibility). Doctors are very concerned after reading the report. The CDC says the fully vaccinated people are likely big drivers of the virus spread. It makes sense since unvaccinated people have maintained masks and are staying away from everyone, for the most part, while the vaccinated folks have thrown caution to the wind, cavorting and comingling for 2 months, maskless, without a care in the world. The vaccinated likely created much of the spread occurring today by infecting the unvaccinated. You cannot help but wonder if the mask mandate was not lifted for the vaccinated folks on 5/13/21, things would be different. Since masks may not be all that effective, the numbers would likely be the same. The report and doctors lament that the vaccines are likely overhyped as to their efficacy and vaccinated people may be overconfident in their protection. The CDC says the most transmission is occurring between unvaccinated people but no one will be surprised if they back pedal from this statement in a week or two (their track record is not good). Interestingly, the test positivity rate in Provincetown was 50% a couple weeks ago (1 in every 2 tests were positive for covid) but now at 5% (1 in 20 tests are positive). The spike in cases was fast but conditions improve quickly. The Delta variant may be a fast-moving virus that smacks a region hard and quick but then burns out just as fast. This behavior occurs in Spain and Netherlands. Louisiana Dr Christopher Thomas slaps the unvaccinated folks in the face proclaiming, "We are becoming victims of the unvaccinated." That earns him an immediate appearance on CNN (democrat media). The Biden administration, in concert with democrat media (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, New York Times, Washington Post), are doing everything possible to encourage vaccinations (they want to remain in power), while the republican media (Fox News, Newsmax, OANN, Breitbart, AM talk radio, New York Post) encourages vaccinations in a lukewarm manner but they are making an effort. The republicans want to regain power in the House and Senate in the November 2022 elections (only 15 months away) so they straddle the fence telling people to get the shots but at the same time trying not to offend some of the base that do not plan to become vaccinated. Fear not, since crony capitalism is in its last throes in America and will be replaced by a new system, likely similar to the Nordic models, a capitalism-socialism model, over the next decade or two. There will be much turmoil for many years until the Promised Land a la MLK arrives.
Note Added Friday Evening, 7/30/21, at 9:00 PM EST: CDC Director Walensky says if Americans become vaccinated, the virus can be stamped out in a few weeks. The vaccination drum is beat night and day. Former Surgeon General Jerome Adams says business closures may be coming due to the virus spread. Ford closes two automobile assembly plants in Kentucky due to the pandemic and chip shortages. Ford orders mask use for its Missouri workers (the union will have a say with this). Union Square Hospitality Group CEO Danny Meyer says all employees will be fully vaccinated and proof of vaccination will be required by all dinner goers. Before you eat that steak at Tacocina, or Manhatta, The Modern, Gramercy Tavern, Blue Smoke or the Union Square Café, kneel and show your papers, please. Anyone agreeing to this must really be hungry. President Biden says it is likely that more guidelines and restrictions will be coming. This is a disturbing statement not from the standpoint that there is fear that the virus spread will continue, but rather the edicts and decrees coming from the Whitehouse. Remember, COVID-19 deaths are now at a similar rate as yearly flu deaths. Politicians are control freaks.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/31/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 99.5K daily new cases which will surely top 100K as additional numbers are tallied. The news outlets are touting 67K cases because their information is 2 or 3 days old. The picture worsens for America although the rate of transmission slows over the last day. The last 3 days are 85K cases, 96K cases and 99K cases yesterday, so hope springs eternal that the numbers will top-out in the coming days. The Friday data is typically the highest so 99K+ cases yesterday is not too much of a surprise and thankfully it was not far worse. The weekend data (Saturday and Sunday) are the lightest of the week. Thus, daily cases should be far below 100K. If 100K or more daily new cases are posted for today (Saturday) or Sunday, it will be shocking. Katy bar the door because next week will be very ugly if this weekend reports high daily cases. Texas daily cases increase. Ditto California that had daily cases moving sideways for a few days; not anymore. Florida daily cases pull back from 17.6K cases to 17.1K cases yesterday so fingers are crossed that the cases will retreat in the Sunshine State. DeSantis puffs his chest out telling an aid that conditions will improve. Missouri's daily cases leap to 4.2K the highest of the current wave. Cases climb in Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Utah, Oregon and Vermont (small numbers). The wheel just fell off in Hawaii with an enormous spike to 622 daily new cases over twice the number seen during the entire pandemic. Keystone just cancelled his reservations in Maui, the Big Island, but he looked forward to cliff-diving in his new Speedo's that Nurse Goodbody promised if he would get vaccinated. On the brighter side, daily cases in Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Kansas, Oklahoma, Washington, Nevada and Alaska are dropping for a day or three. Remember, the data and charts you see on television are 2 to 3 days old. The Delta variant may be a fast-moving coronavirus storm that smacks hard but then retreats just as fast. The week ahead will tell the tale.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/31/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The daily fear-mongering, especially by the democrat media, continues on an hourly basis. Putting things into perspective, 80 to 200 people die per day, on an annualized basis, in any year, due to the flu. 300 Americans are dying daily from COVID-19 (if you live in one of the 50 US states, in the entire state that you live in, only about 6 people died from coronavirus yesterday). For most of the year, US flu deaths occur during the flu season October though March, and compressing the flu numbers into that time frame produces the same deaths as COVID-19. America did not mask-up and exist in a daily panic over the flu season each year, did it? The China Flu mainly kills the elderly and those with comorbidities, and especially those overweight and obese. For once, there is hope that a television news anchor would ask the doctors and nurses 'how many of your covid patients are overweight and obese?'. If Biden wants people vaccinated, tell the overweight and obese people, which are 80% of the US, that their fatness will get them a breathing tube and potential death if they are not vaccinated. Look at those news stories of people trying to convince you to not make the mistake they did and get vaccinated. They are all fatties.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/31/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The rate of transmission and R naught numbers are getting tossed about these days willy-nilly. The fancy equation can be easily misinterpreted and misconstrued by doctors, scientists and especially laymen like Keystone. To help scare people into getting vaccinated, the CDC and government says one infected person with the Delta variant (India B1617) can infect 8 or 9 people whereas the original strain (D614G) was one infected person infecting 2 or 3 people. The R naught numbers are not equated to a specific time. This makes interpreting the numbers difficult. Scientists will be quick to say the purpose of the R naught (Ro) is misunderstood. Generally, lumping together a few different sources, the Ro for the original D614G COVID-19 virus is in the 2.3 to 2.7 range. The UK B117 variant (alpha) is in the 4 to 5 range. The India B1617 variant (delta) is in the 5 to 8 range. The numbers are used to create graphics for the Delta variant telling Americans that 1 infected person infects 8 or 9 other people. It is likely hyperbole. Looking at the US waves on the daily cases chart above, the dire transmissibility proclamations are not there. The red lines in the US daily cases chart show the virus spreading and increasing at the same general rate. The US wave 5 transmission rate, as per the daily cases chart, is at the same rate of acceleration as the US wave 3 which was mainly the regular D614G virus. Again, scientists will say Ro and the rate of change on the daily cases chart are not supposed to be correlated, and they are correct, however, if the transmissibility was orders of magnitude worse, the daily cases should be going completely vertical already. They are not. Interestingly, looking at the Spain and Netherlands charts, they are vertical spikes and support the idea of the high Ro numbers proposed for the States, but as fast as the cases sky-rocketed there, they are coming down just as fast a week or two later. Of course, this is complicated stuff best left to the professionals but they do bear a responsibility to not decree pandemic hyperbole. The Ro for the Spanish Flu a century ago was 1.4 to 2.8. Measles is 15. The Ro of chickenpox is 9.5 hence the comparison to the Delta variant. A couple of talking head doctors on television say 85% of the population needs vaccinated to defeat wave 5. This number is calculated from the equation; 1-1/Ro. It is easy math so do not be intimidated. If the Ro for Delta variant is say, 6.66, to pick an ominous number (the range listed above is 5 to 8 some say 9), the inverse of 6.66 is 0.15. Subtracting 0.15 from 1 is 0.85, or 85%. The equation is a bit of hocus-pocus since it does not account for natural immunity and other variables. For the original D614G coronavirus, the Ro is 2.5. Thus, the inverse of 2.5 is 0.40 and taking this away from 1 is 0.60, or 60%. The original COVID-19 strain, as it slapped America silly last year into early this year, could have been stopped in its tracks if a magic wand, er magic syringe, could have vaccinated 60% of the US population. We took out a big chunk of that and had herd immunity within our reach, but could not defeat COVID-19 fast enough, so the India variant is now biting at Uncle Sam's heels. Doctors, scientists and nurses are likely cringing and in dismay at such a layman's interpretation and perspective of the Ro calculations and infection rate science, but the intent is to simplify the numbers so common folks can better understand the pandemic. Inoculating 85% of the population, when 15% are ineligible children, is unrealistic.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/31/21, at 4:30 AM EST: Perhaps there is not enough trust in herd immunity (including natural antibodies) and its positive impact on helping to defeat the pandemic. Biden screwed-up the herd immunity narrative when he stopped including natural antibodies in the discussion. For many months, Lord Fauci told Americans over and over that herd immunity will be reached when 70% to 85% of the population is EITHER vaccinated or have natural antibodies due to an infection. In his push to increase the vaccination rate, that plummeted after the CDC and FDA jointly stopped the J&J vaccine due to side effects in April (see chart above), Biden lopped-off the natural immunity part of the equation and started saying that over 70% of the population needs to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Wrong. This type of misinformation and miscommunication, purposely done to control rather than inform people, is detrimental to society and can move counter to stopping the pandemic. Democrat media sources continue showing graphics that repeat this narrative that is incorrect. It is misinformation. Biden tells his white lie because he wants to push people to get vaccinated in every way possible. Politicians think lying to people is noble because they are protecting the masses (from their mind's perspective) when in fact they make daily decisions based on how to get reelected and keep their political tribe in power. Suck is the crony capitalism system. Trump told Americans last spring the virus was no big deal, and he admitted he lied because he did not want people to panic. That is a lie. Trump was worried about his reelection. That is why he kept downplaying the pandemic, even after he almost died from it due to his age and overweight condition. The pandemic was Trump's Waterloo and the main reason he lost the election. As mentioned a few times previously, the US will have about 57% of the population vaccinated within a week or so. Add this to the 10% to 30% that have natural antibodies and America is currently at a 67% to 87% herd immunity level. Granted, the Delta variant packs a bigger punch, but a sane calm mind would surmise that the US wave 5 may be the last hurrah for COVID-19. The pandemic and drama will quickly subside if the US daily cases can roll over into the week ahead. The above discussions keep the pandemic in perspective. Someone needs to maintain a calm, level head while everyone else is running around like chicken's with their heads cut off (and they do that if you ever prepared a chicken for Sunday dinner).
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/31/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The daily new cases in the UK are sneaking higher the last few days but remain well off the peak at 54.2K cases on 7/17/21, now 2 weeks in the rearview mirror. Adding 28 days as per the Keystone Model, is a target date for the UK active cases curve to flatten and roll over on 8/14/21. Thus, UK healthcare workers will remain busy for a couple more weeks but then will notice a quick improvement after that, as long as the daily cases continue moving lower. Japan is slapped in the face with 11K daily new cases the most of the pandemic. The virus is spiraling out of control on the island nation but the Olympics Village bubble is maintaining separation. Japan got hit with bad timing. The pandemic is going to peak in Japan in the middle of the Olympics; the timing could not be worse. A massive heat wave hits the Olympics impacting some athletes. The heat chases the Japanese people inside to the air conditioning where they breathe each other's air, infecting each other, creating the current spike in numbers. Kazakhstan is covid Hell on Earth at 8K cases per day, another record, but no one cares, except for China that is watching its borders with Kazakhstan and Russia like a hawk. Israel daily cases are leveling-off and will perhaps drop-off from here showing the same pattern as other nations such as Spain and Netherlands. Southeast Asia remains a mess but cases may finally be peaking in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/31/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The US vaccination rate continues higher as the incentives continue. Unvaccinated folks are taking up President Biden on the offer of $100 to get the shots. The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows vaccinations averaging at about 523K per day. The Whitehouse will be happy but only if the trend higher in the vax rate continues.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/31/21, at 7:00 AM EST: Are you "Born to Be Wild" as Steppenwolf sings? Those that are in America are straddling their Harley's and riding to Sturgis, South Dakota, for the annual motorcycle rally 8/6/21 (Friday) through 8/15/21 (Sunday). The biker pilgrimage begins. 10 fun days enjoying the three B's; bikes, booze and broads. Sturgis was a superspreader event last August. 460K people will descend on Sturgis starting Thursday, 8/5/21. The pop-pop-pop sound out of the Harley-Davidson V-twin engine will get your motor running, and perhaps send coronavirus cases climbing. 47% of South Dakotans are fully vaccinated but the percentage drops to about 40%, give or take, in the region where the half million bikers will frolic over the next couple weeks. Par-tay! Live for today and do not worry about tomorrow. The Hells Angels may cause trouble since it is the 81st Sturgis Rally and the letter H is the 8th letter and A is the 1st letter of the alphabet. The Hells Angels, however, are not known to link events cryptically. Usually, trouble starts when everyone has too much liquor sloshing around in their bellies. Are you ready to rumble? Party time continues in Chicago at the Lollapalooza rock concert. Masks are now required in indoor spaces (merchandise shops and hospitality lounges) starting today. The concert is outdoors and no one is wearing a mask. The unvaccinated, that provided proof of a negative covid test over the last 3 days to enter the venue, cannot be monitored. The masks are tossed into the first trash barrel past the gate. How can you impress a chick with a mask on? You can't. In a week, Chicago finds out if Lollapalooza is a superspreader event. A charter school in Atlanta, Georgia, places over 100 people in quarantine after opening for only 2 days. Nine students and five staffers test positive for COVID-19 making schools across America rethink plans for the coming schoolyear. Two large Michigan universities require vaccinations for all students and staff and will enforce mask-wearing indoors. If you want to learn and be educated in America, get down on your knees, and roll up your sleeves.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/31/21, at 9:00 AM EST: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, dentists are commenting on "mask-mouth" where gum, mouth, tongue and teeth issues are occurring far more frequently. The masks are creating mouth issues but they never stopped any of the five US pandemic waves. The dentists say some folks have delayed check-ups and visits to the dentist due to the pandemic. They also blame the lower levels of oxygen and higher levels of carbon dioxide within the masks. The masks are stealthily leading to dehydration and dry mouth conditions. People drink less water when they wear masks. Aside from the mouth issues, some doctors, psychiatrists, psychologists and teachers worry about masks and young children not being able to watch facial expressions and lip movements which are extremely important for proper childhood development.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 7/31/21: Walmart tells the corporate staff, and employees in management positions, to get down on their knees and receive their vaccinations by 10/4/21. Walmart is the latest corporation kneeling and kissing the Biden vaccine mandate ring. The Whitehouse dismisses any talk of lockdowns resuming in the United States but they said the government would not impose vaccine mandates and lied about that.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 8/1/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 51.9K daily new cases for Saturday a welcome sight albeit an elevated number. Comparing likes for likes, last Saturday, 7/24/21, cases were 66K and the Saturday before that, 7/17/21, cases were 41K. Thus, the lower number week on week is great. The 52K is also below the moving averages which is good since it will pull the trend lines lower. The 7-day MA is at 75K cases so the US does not want to see and day forward above 75K. Today's number should be the lowest of the week as usual. The data on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will tell the tale like last week. The current US wave 5 could have went either way last week but with the ongoing vaccine hesitancy and the virus spread in the southern and western states, up was the path forward. Florida crosses the 39K deaths grim milestone and reports 108 deaths yesterday the deadliest day since March. This will get the attention of the retired Floridians driving from the senior community to the supermarket and back in their golf carts. Florida's daily new cases spike to 22K cases yesterday the highest of the entire pandemic. The clock just fell off the wall in Governor DeSantis's office. Where's he hiding? DeSantis? Bueller? DeSantis? Bueller? The wannabe president was traipsing around Utah raising campaign funds while Florida turns into a covid-infected nest. The test positivity rate is at 22% for Florida teenagers (1 in 5 tests are positive). DeSantis remains steadfast at stopping schools from mandating masks. On CNN, Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber calls DeSantis out decreeing, "He's (DeSantis) the pied piper leading everyone off a cliff right now." California and Texas daily cases back off the top but it is weekend data which is usually lower. Nonetheless, it is a positive. The doom and gloom on the cable news outlets is escalating. Usually, a change in trend occurs when sentiment is all-in on one direction. As people scream that the sky is falling, a la Chicken Little above, the US may experience, and likely will, the same path as Spain, Netherlands, UK and Portugal, with the sharp rise in cases occurring, but also a quick retreat. The next week or two will be interesting. So much for the happy talk as New York is smacked in the face with 3.2K daily cases the most of the current wave and highest since early May. New York and Florida are not doing well. Both states have many port cities. COVID-19 loves the port cities. Oklahoma also takes a turn for the worse. Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana have an ugly look the last few days with elevated cases. The picture in Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas improves slightly. Mississippi and Georgia remain challenged. Cases remain subdued in South Dakota as the pop-pop-pop of the Harley-Davidson's begin echoing off the storefronts in Sturgis. The India B1617 variant (delta) is a fast-moving virus. It hit the center of the south first at Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana and southern Missouri. These states may be peaking in daily cases right now and interestingly, the spread of the virus expands outward, mainly sideways probably because of summer travelers, and the constant movement of trucks east and west on the interstate roadways. Oklahoma worsens infected by Arkansas, Missouri and Texas. Illinois worsens as the virus spreads from Missouri. The virus moves up through Tennessee, Kentucky and now into Indiana. Georgia is infected by Alabama to its west and Florida to its south. It is bad that the Delta variant is spreading out from the center of the southern states but at the same time it may be a fast-moving event and positive that the cases may keep dropping in the epicenter states. Cases are sneaking higher in Arizona and New Mexico so the path of infection from northern South America (Columbia) up through Central America (Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, etc...), into Mexico and now the States, continues. The West Coast has issues. Oregon cases are elevated, the Beaver State has many port cities, but Washington state cases are trying to pull back.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 8/1/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The WHO says 132 countries are infected with the Delta variant. "Hard fought gains are being lost," says Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus that has every letter of the alphabet in his name and title. France catches a break with daily cases retreating for a couple days. Europe is improving as Delta moves quickly from country to country but burns out fast as well. France is likely on the downside now. However, Italy will struggle a few days before hopefully rolling over. Finally good news for Indonesia. Daily cases keep coming off the top after peaking on 7/15/21. Indonesia's active cases curve peaks on 7/24/21 (9 days between peaks with the Keystone Model predicting 11 days peak to peak) now rolling over to form the coveted bell shape and signal that the virus is being defeated. Indonesia hospitals should finally notice their caseloads dropping. Malaysia daily cases are subsiding so hopefully in a few days it will follow Indonesia's lead. Thailand remains in horrible shape posting 19K daily new cases the highest ever. Thailand reports 178 deaths the deadliest day ever with total deaths about to cross the grim 5K milestone. Over 9K are dead in Malaysia. Over 94K are dead in Indonesia with total cases crossing 3.4 million. Japan reports another day of cases over 10K. There are 241 cases linked to the Olympics; 21 infections over the last day. The Games are going well. The infections associated with the Olympics Village, where 18K people are staying, were running about 10 per day a couple weeks ago and about 20 per day over the last week which is a good record for so many people. The Olympics committee is disciplining athletes and their support groups for leaving the Village to sight-see and drink booze. COVID-19 ruins all the fun. US swimmer Caleb Dressel takes 5 gold medals. Australia reports daily cases in retreat the last couple days but the government places more restrictions on citizens that will run through the end of the year. Australia is playing catch-up on vaccinations with less than 20% of the population inoculated. Two-thirds of Aussie cases are people younger than 40 years old. A hallmark of the Delta variant is how it attacks young people around the world. Many are out and about partying every day and interacting with one another spreading virus. Honduras reports record daily cases. Ditto Kazakhstan.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 8/1/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The CDC's mass confusion concerning mask confusion continues. The messaging on mask use for vaccinated people, based on substantial and high infection rates shown as orange and red colors on the US county map, respectively, is flushed down the toilet. The message is lost because it is not repeated and media outlets do not accurately communicate the guidelines. What a mess. Most media outlets are now telling people to get vaccinated and wear masks (regardless of where you live). People are confused. Folks learn through repetition so if messaging is not repeated often and correctly, it is lost. One day per week should be selected, say first thing Monday morning, when people should be told to reference the map instead of relying on individuals to check things out when they feel like it. You have to train people through repetition. Also, the US county map can be printed and photocopied early in the week and distributed to folks that are not technically orientated and do not own smartphones or computers (about 1 in 8 Americans). The CDC needs to be thinking about its communication tools not only in the context of the current confusing and chaotic COVID-19 pandemic, but in terms of the future confusing and chaotic pandemic as well. NIH Director Collins is asked about mask use and he goes on and on about the size of a crowd and does not mention the actual new CDC guideline about mask use for vaccinated people. It is pretty bad when the NIH director does not even know the current mask policy. All Collins had to do is tell folks to reference the US county map on the CDC website. The failed messaging is embarrassing. People do not know what to do because officials do not have a unified message. Everyone is in charge and no one is in charge. The UK government and scientists jump on the doom and gloom train proclaiming that it is "almost certain" that a variant will emerge that "leads to current vaccine failure." Fear is also a virus.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 8/1/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows US hospital admissions and hospitalizations moving higher; in the wrong direction. Admissions ramp higher above the wave 4 highs but remaining only about one-third of the peak admissions in January. Hospitalizations are running higher but only now testing the highs from wave 4 in April. US hospitals were busier every day from November through February than any day from March to present. Hospitalizations are only at about one-fourth of the peak in January. Charts are moving sharply higher causing most everyone to go into a tizzy but there is every reason to believe that daily cases for the US as a whole should begin rolling over to the downside. If the daily cases and other charts keep ramping higher and look this same way a week from now, yes, that will be time to panic! The more likely path is that the US wave 5 should calm down in the coming days or week or two and roll over to the downside. The pundits and scientists are riding the gloom bandwagon forecasting the end of days ahead.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 8/1/21, at 7:00 AM EST: President Biden is a whisker away from achieving his July 4th goal of vaccinating 70% of US adults with at least one dose. The CDC reports that 69.7% of US adults (over 18 years old) have taken at least one shot. This is 180 million people, thus, 258 million Americans are over 18 years old (180/0.697). Another 0.3% are needed to reach the Biden goal which is 774K adults (0.003x258,000,000). The vaccination rate is 544K shots per day on average, and allowing for some teenagers being vaccinated (non-adults), the president should cross his goal any day perhaps Monday or Tuesday. This will give the Whitehouse something to boast about. You have to figure that they would like to jam some heavy numbers into the Saturday tally to put if over the top, and keep the goal in July, but alas, it may be a bridge too far. The goal will be achieved about a month late in early August. The vaccinated will take the opportunity to further denigrate the dirty, unwashed, uncooperative, unpatriotic, unvaccinated people that told everyone well over a year ago that they never planned to be vaccinated. 49.5% of Americans are fully vaccinated. The Whitehouse can have another party when the 50% number is hit. 90% of the US population over 65 years old is vaccinated. 58% of Americans (adults and children) are vaccinated with at least one dose. Adding the 10% to 30% of citizens that have natural antibodies to the 58% is a 68% to 88% herd immunity tally that will surely help combat wave 5 and beat it down.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 8/1/21: The US-wide eviction moratorium expired at midnight so millions of Americans may be kicked-out of homes and apartments. Democrats are pointing fingers at each other for dropping the ball failing to extend the moratorium. Back payments are due and many people do not have a wad of cash to pull out and hand to the landlord. Some have lost their jobs, and careers, during the pandemic and are scrambling to get their lives back to a steady-state. It is harder to do that when the couch is out on the curb. Evicted folks will likely head towards southern states where it is warmer year round.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 8/1/21, at 6:00 PM EST: Woo-hoo. Whoopie! 69.9% of US adults are vaccinated with at least one shot. Biden is a hair away from achieving the 70% goal he wanted by Independence Day. Better late then never. The president will start the week on an upbeat since he has a victory, albeit late, to tout. The vaccinations are rising steadily so the message about getting the shot is slowly seeping-in. America is hanging in there. People need to take it easy on each other. Many folks are strung tighter than a snare drum these days. If the US follows the path of other nations, the US wave 5 may roll over in a manner of days or a week or two. If Biden wants more shots in arms, he and the pundits need to tell anyone that is overweight and obese to talk to their doctor immediately about getting the shot. People must be afraid that they will be accused of fat shaming so everyone continues ignoring the 900-pound elephant sitting on the living room sofa eating chocolate bonbon's, ice cream and barbecue potato chips. Tell them to waddle to a vaccination site.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 8/1/21, at 7:00 PM EST: Over the last couple days, COVID-19 cases in China escalate from 55 cases to 75; small potatoes compared to other nations. Most cases are occurring around Nanjing and specifically the Nanjing Airport. A plane landed with an infected Russian on board. Over 1,600 airport workers are in quarantine for the next 2 weeks. A complete disinfection of the entire airport is underway. Local Nanjing residents are told to stay home. Nanjing is a couple hundred miles west of Shanghai. 80 high-risk areas in China are in lockdown. Murderous dirtbag Dictator Xi will not be happy with killer and dirtbag Dictator Putin. The Kerala region of India, which is at the southwestern tip of the country, goes into lockdown due to rising infections. India's daily cases are flattening-out rather than dropping and must be monitored for potential trouble ahead. Kerala is a stone's throw from Sri Lanka that is experiencing a spike in daily cases and a new wave is underway. There must be lots of island boys and girls comingling in the ocean sun in southern India and Sri Lanka spreading love, and virus. There is likely lots of trade occurring between the two regions and their numerous port cities. The port cities around the world are key spreaders of China Flu. The Tamil Nadu region, which is the southeastern tip of India, imposes border restrictions on Kerala residents requiring proof of vaccination or a negative coronavirus test.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 8/1/21, at 8:00 PM EST: Fauci proclaims, "We are seeing an outbreak of the unvaccinated." Fauci says he does not see lockdowns in the future. He says universities, colleges and businesses will likely want proof of vaccination for its employees. A couple days ago, in an interview with PBS's Judy Woodruff (democrat media), that is buried by the search engines, Fauci slaps the republicans but then provides a backhanded complement saying, "I'm heartened to see that, among the conservative republicans, among people like Steve Scalise, and even Governor DeSantis himself, who are promoting vaccination, people like Governor Asa Hutchinson, who's out there beating the bushes trying to get people vaccinated." Fauci and Collins will only appear on democrat media (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, NPR, New York Times, Washington Post) because they know they will not be questioned about the Wuhan Lab leak theory or funding provided to the communist labs for gain of function research which the US government was not allowing.
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/2/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The world crosses 199 million total coronavirus cases on its way to 200 million. Communist China must pay for their nefarious deed against the world. There are 4,241,322 deaths worldwide. COVID-19 likely started spreading around the world from a Wuhan Lab leak where the communists were playing around with animal viruses. 180 million people have recovered worldwide so nearly 20 million people live with ongoing health issues, such as long-covid, due to the China Flu. The UK and Europe continue enjoying a trend of lower daily cases. France improves but the street riots demonstrating against vaccine passports become more violent. Even Italy, bringing up the caboose, reports daily cases subsiding the last couple days. Conditions are improving in Indonesia where they need a break. Malaysia's daily cases appear to be topping-out. Thailand also reports a one-day pullback in daily cases but Southeast Asia will remain under duress for the next month. If the daily cases roll over as the trend suggests, the Asian folks can at least see light at the end of the tunnel going forward. Central America remains in bad shape. Honduras reports record cases. Guatemala continues struggling. Mexico cases remain elevated. It would be interesting to know how many of the COVID-19 cases at the southern tip of Texas are the Peru C37 variant (lambda). In Australia, some citizens ignore lockdown rules and instead frolic at the beach. Police descend on beaches sending Aussies home. At Gordon's Bay in Sydney, police helicopters hover overhead with a loudspeaker telling folks to leave the area and police are on the way. The natives are getting restless. The Australian military is also involved in maintaining order so the land Down Under is looking like a police state. The Aussie government is banning Sky News Australia from posting content accusing the right-leaning media outlet of misinformation (criticizing lockdowns). Google and other tech giants allow the government to suppress free speech. Such is the world in 2021.
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/2/21, at 3:30 AM EST: China cases pop to 200 overnight but you can never trust the communist data. China worries about food security and its hog population. China is building and modifying structures to serve as 'hog hotels' that will keep the animals protected from viruses. Remember the outbreaks in the wester port nations of Africa a few months back? The hotspots of coronavirus in Ghana, Togo, Benin, Cameroon and Gabon directly correlated to the pig and hog populations in those nations and outbreaks of African Swine Flu (ASF). ASF is an ongoing concern as well as the pigs and hogs carrying other viruses. Even Germany experienced a bump in coronavirus cases around its pig population. China is sweating bullets because a hit to their food supply would be disastrous. The filthy CCP has to feed 1.4 billion mouths each day and people become angry when their tummies growl. The past dynasties in China fell because of food inflation and food shortages that led to riots, revolts and government overthrows. Do you think that keeps dirtbag Dictator Xi, the Winnie the Pooh lookalike, awake at night? Yes, it does. (Winnie the Pooh is banned in China because of the comparisons to Xi. Communists do not have a sense of humor. The CCP will imprison or kill you if you make fun of them or disagree with an edict. Such is the plight of the Chinese people under the CCP's communist dictatorship rule.) Interestingly, North Korea is tapping its emergency rice reserves and the Chinese dynasty playbook may be playing out in the hermit kingdom.
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/2/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 21.8K daily new cases a nice low Sunday number. Saturday was 53.4K cases and yesterday 21.8K both below the 7-day MA trend line at 70.6K cases. It is great to see the 7-day curl over to the downside over the last couple days. It hints that the US daily cases may be topping-out right now and rolling over but a week ago we were in a similar situation. The 3-day MA trend line drops like a stone to 58,874 cases teasing the prior low in the 3-day at 57,670 cases on 7/26/21. If the 3-day prints a lower low, and then a lower high, the US will have a happy path forward. The case numbers today, Tuesday and Wednesday will tell the tale. Only 64 Americans die yesterday but obviously, that is 64 families that will never be the same. A sub 100 number, even if it is Sunday data, is a welcome sight. Florida's data is in a non-updating pattern again after Saturday's 21,683 daily new cases the highest ever of the pandemic. Texas cases drop off the top but the weekend data is typically lighter. California cases also pull back for a couple days and New York cases pull back for one day. Perhaps the covid news will improve this week for the US as cases may be peaking and vaccinations are increasing. The next 3 days are uber important.
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/2/21, at 8:30 AM EST: Moderna, Pfizer and BioNTech renegotiate contracts raising the vaccine prices. The mRNA vaccines appear safe and effective so far so big pharma is looking to cash-in on the better results. MRNA jumps +2% in pre-market trading adding to a couple-percent gain on Friday. PFE pops +1% and BNTX gains nearly +5% adding to the +5% gain on Friday. The companies should build vaccine factories in Africa, Latin and South America, and Asia, to help prepare the world for future pandemics. Will they help global society or instead greedily stuff the money into their pockets that will be used for vacation homes, expensive cars, shiny bobbles and the royalty lifestyle? Visa is considering a vaccine mandate for its employees so the mammoth credit card company is half-kneeling in front of the Biden vaccine mandate ring, with its lips a couple inches away.
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/2/21, at 11:00 AM EST: New York democrat Governor Cuomo, who remains under investigation for sexual harassment at the workplace, Casanova Cuomo, asks and suggests, in a mafioso kind of way, to private businesses to go to a vaccine admission only. The sick vaccinated control freaks want to force Americans to kneel and receive the shot to be able to function in society. Perhaps the unvaccinated will simply start their own underground economy. Be careful of the law of unintended consequences because it punches you in the face every time. There is such visceral hatred for unvaccinated folks. The wealthy vaccinated folks want to start jet-setting again and need the serfs to get vaccinated and get back to work at the airports, hotels and fancy restaurants to service their lifestyles. If it were biblical times, a vaccinated person would proclaim that if they do not get vaccinated, "Stone them!"
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 8/2/21, at 1:00 PM EST: The CDC COVID Data Tracker officially reports 70% of US adults receiving at least one vaccine dose. President Biden finally reaches the Independence Day, 7/4/21, goal, 28 days late. A goal is a goal so Biden deserves credit just as Trump deserves credit for vaccinating 20 million Americans by 1/20/21 when he left office, even though he missed his goal to have it done by the end of 2020. The 70% goal is fine but the current India B1617 variant (delta) outbreak, US wave 5, is a community transmission event. Some of the country remains in the low and moderate transmission counties but the southern and western states are bleeding orange and red which is substantial and high transmission counties, respectively. A local area may be 80% vaccinated but a few miles down the road an area may only be 50% vaccinated. Obviously, the focus has to be on the less-vaccinated states and the data shows states such as Missouri and Louisiana rolling up their sleeves in big numbers over the last week.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 8/2/21, at 1:30 PM EST: There are several doom and gloom predictions today that get your attention. Admiral Brett Giroir appears on CNN proclaiming that 1,000 deaths per day are on tap. A doctor in a different interview says the cases will be twice the January level. What is he smoking? Put the bong down. Instead of pot, there must be crack in that bowl. Dr Larry Brilliant says Florida cases will escalate through the end of the year. He says 90% of Americans need vaccinated to stop the Delta variant (he likely bases it on an Ro of 10 which plugged into the equation 1-1/Ro yields 0.90, or 90% vaccination required to stop the spread). The Ro values are not equated to a direct time so it is misleading. Brilliant says the Delta variant may be twice as contagious as chicken pox. This is hyperbole since the Ro for chicken pox is 9.5 and COVID-19 is believed to be in the 5 to 8 range. They are trying to cheerlead the vaccines but those dire predictions seem whacked. Vaccinating 90% of the population would be kids 7 or 8 years old and everyone older. The vaccines are not approved for young children as yet so vaccinating 90% of the population is not even possible. The US hospital admissions and hospitalizations are only at one-fourth to one-third of the worst levels in January. Sure, there are locations that are overrun such as Jacksonville, Florida, Los Angeles, and southern Missouri, but these overcapacity conditions are limited. The state of Florida hospitalizations are approaching the highest levels of the pandemic but it is currently an exception compared to other states. The medical pundits may be running around like a chicken with its head cut off but it may not be warranted. Give the data a few days. The US wave 5 may roll over in short order but the television pundits expect cases, hospitalizations and deaths to keep rising for weeks ahead challenging the January numbers and higher. It makes no sense considering the number of people vaccinated and the millions of Americans that have natural antibodies. However, they are the experts so it will have to play out.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 8/2/21, at 2:00 PM EST: SoulCycle and Equinox workout locations are mandating vaccinations for staff and customers. Get down on your knees, and roll up your sleeves, if you want to sweat profusely, with the rest of us dweebs. After you kneel for the shot, stand up, then "climb on your bike and ride," as Queen would sing (mark 2:52). 'Fat bottom girls make the rock and roll world go 'round', and they also may become deathly ill if they contract coronavirus. KFF data says less than 1% of cases are breakthrough cases so less than 1 in 100 people. How does KFF have the data when the CDC was not collecting data on breakthrough cases? It is a shame, since the message probably has more to do with encouraging vaccinations by telling folks breakthrough cases are not a problem. 1 in 100 simply appears to be a stretch. If it was 1 in 100, why did the CDC ever change the mask guidelines? Despite those long odds, republican Senator Lyndsey Graham, Trump golfing buddy and boot-licker, tests positive for coronavirus and he was vaccinated. A vaccinated high profile senator contracts COVID-19 as a breakthrough case. Well, look at that, he was the 1 in 100. Comically, a mathematician ponders, what are the chances of that? Graham says he would be sicker if it was not for the vaccine so the republicans continue the more forceful messaging telling followers to get vaccinated. Graham attended a party on Senator Manchin's houseboat so other politicians and attendees should be concerned about coronavirus. In Martha's Vineyard, where the wealthy play, former President Obama plans a lavish 60th birthday party for himself with hundreds of guests and he claims it will be covid-compliant. Will it be a superspreader event?
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 8/2/21, at 3:00 PM EST: The Whitehouse COVID-19 Response Team holds a briefing on the pandemic. Zients, Walensky and Fauci are on the television screen. Zients says 1 in 3 cases occurring in the United States are in Florida and Texas. The Defense Department is looking into the possibility of mandating vaccines. Ironically, dedicated, patriotic soldiers will be asked for 'their papers, please', by the government they defend. Zients cheers the increase in vaccination rates. Walensky discusses the charts but shamefully, the data and charts are dated 7/30/21 but today is 8/2/21. The people leading us are following stale data. It's the blind leading the blind. The CDC needs to step-up the data processing to post the information faster no more than a 24-hour lag time. If Worldometer can do it, so can the CDC; get with the program. She discusses the high viral loads and the Provincetown, Massachusetts, outbreak. The CDC shows the US county map and it is in a nice one-page format telling vaccinated folks to wear a mask in the substantial (orange) and high (red) infection counties. Nice simple chart and presentation. The CDC needs to pound that chart into American minds especially in preparation for future pandemics. Fauci provides a slide show. He drones on and then in the end says a slide was erroneously deleted. He talks further about breakthrough cases verbalizing numbers but this goes over the listener's heads. When you talk numbers, people's eyes glaze over. They have to see what you are talking about. How do you have confidence in a team that cannot even prepare 10 PowerPoint slides properly? During the Q&A, Fauci asks for a question to be repeated. Humorously, all these people running the pandemic and political show these days have Alzheimer's. Walensky says 'wear a mask if in high transmission areas, orange and red'. Wrong. She should have said that folks need to 'wear a mask if in the substantial and high transmission counties, orange and red'. This is not nitpicking. The message must be repeated exactly to eliminate any confusion but the key point person for the mask guidelines nurtures uncertainty. Right now, thousands of Americans are asking each other, "I thought the mask use for everyone includes substantial transmission areas, does it?" The same exact message about using masks in orange and red counties must be repeated over and over but the public is already lost. The Georgia governor will not permit a state-wide mask mandate but Atlanta schools are requiring masks. Conflicting directions and guidelines, officials providing different advice and comments, and jumbled-up mask guidelines are the hallmark of the pandemic. Is it any mystery why Americans are dazed and confused as Zep would sing?.
Note Added Monday Evening, 8/2/21: Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards proclaims, "We have not reached the peak." Louisiana daily new cases peaked at the highest number for the entire pandemic on 7/27/21 five days ago. Edwards, pick up a chart. Look at the Worldometer data and charts instead of the CDC and Johns-Hopkins charts since they are more up to date in real-time. Can the Louisiana daily cases spike again? Sure, but that is not the current direction today. Germany is forging ahead to vaccinate 12 to 17 year old's even though doctors advise only inoculation those at high-risk. The politicians run the pandemic show. In San Francisco, people are permitted to take the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine if they had the J&J vaccine as the first shot. What happened to follow the science? Mixing and matching vaccines of different types is not something that has been studied properly. NIH Director Collins causes a commotion when he suggests people should wear masks at home. The messaging was targeting a situation where unvaccinated family members are in the mix but his comments were met with forceful rebuttals. People do not want to be told to wear a mask in their homes. That is not going to fly.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 8/3/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US is approaching 36 million total COVID-19 cases and 630K deaths from the China Flu. America reports 56.4K cases for Monday below the 7-day MA at 81K cases so the number will pull the moving average lower. The US reported 101.6K daily new cases, call it 102K, on 7/30/21, so yesterday is the third consecutive day with cases falling. Remember, last week provided false hope that the trend was relaxing lower with an encouraging Monday number. The rubber meets the road with today's daily cases and tomorrow's. 213 Americans die yesterday from the Wuhan Virus. The 7-day MA trend line for deaths is at 350 souls per day. That is not a lot of deaths. It is about the same as the number of people that die in a regular flu season. Divide the 2 hundo into 50 states and only 4 people died per state on average yesterday due to COVID-19. Millions of Americans are frozen in fear hiding under the bed for none or only a handful of people dying in their state each day from the China Flu. There were 500 homicide deaths last weekend and no one cares about that especially the black on black murders. Florida data is not updated since the record-setting cases on Saturday. DeSantis is sweeping the evidence under the rug at the tiki bar. California daily cases retreat for 3 days off the top. Ditto Texas and Missouri which is great news but again, the meat of the data for the week will hit today through Friday. Alabama reports 6 days of lower cases after the top. Indiana crosses the 14K deaths grim milestone. Tennessee exceeds 900K total coronavirus cases. The cases are retreating off the peak numbers in every US state. Remember, the data and charts shown on cable news outlets, that are supposed to provide updates for the American public, are always a couple days old. The pullback in US cases is fantastic news but will it hold this week? Maybe not. Will the US experience the quick snap-back of the current wave 5 like the UK, Spain, Netherlands and other nations are experiencing? America's fate for the remainder of the summer into the school year will likely be known by the data over the next 4 days. Fat young people between 20 and 50 years old are the preferred target of the Delta variant.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 8/3/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The daily new cases in the world keep moving higher which is not a good thing. Ditto deaths. Russia remains entrenched in covid death and misery for the last 2 months but the world has no idea what is going on there. Infections spread south causing concern in communist China. Perhaps the chickens (China Flu) are coming home to roost (in Wuhan). China is testing all 11 million residents of Wuhan as the cases rise. The communists appear genuinely concerned about the new cases and potential for mass spread across mainland China. The communists know their Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines are subpar. Maybe the filthy CCP needs to get down on their knees and beg the United States to supply vaccine. Bow, Xi. The world will make you bow once it heals. France cases continue pulling back so fingers are crossed that the US will follow the same path. The UK exceeds 5.9 million total coronavirus cases with 130K deaths. The UK cases continue retreating so PM Johnson's big gamble rolling the covid dice pays off, so far. The UK removed the covid guidelines and reopened its economy on Monday, 7/19/21. Adding 7 to 10 days for the incubation period and knowing some people were already relaxing guidelines on that weekend and then everyone after Monday, the window for daily new cases to pop in the UK is 7/26/21 through 7/29/21. Lo and behold, there is a pop in cases from 7/26/21 through 7/29/21 which is the exact near-term peak in daily cases. UK cases retreat from the 7/29/21 peak which is well below the 7/17/21 peak. It is textbook behavior for the China Flu. The UK will notice a substantive drop-off in hospitalizations beginning in about a week or so. The UK active cases chart should peak and roll over forming the bell shape to verify that the virus is being defeated over the next 2 weeks. Turkey is in a new wave with COVID-19 cases rising daily. Thailand reports the deadliest days ever but Southeast Asia is likely peaking now and conditions should improve going forward. Kazakhstan remains in bad shape and, along with Russia, threaten to ship covid across the border back 'from whence it came' (China).
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 8/3/21, at 10:00 AM EST: On CNN, Dr Hotez says 80% of the population needs vaccinated to stop the Delta variant spread in the US. The good doctor is using a Ro of 5 for the infection rate. Reducing the equation 1-1/Ro = 1-1/5 = 1-0.20 = 0.80 x 100 to make it a percent is 80% of Americans need vaccinated to stop the current delta infection rate. The scientists say the Ro for the India B1617 variant (delta) is in the 5 to 8 range, some say 9. Chicken pox was 9.5; hence the comparison of the Delta variant to pox. Houston and Austin hospitals are filling-up. Louisiana hospitals are packed. Hotez says cases should continue rising exclaiming, "It will be a very tough school year." The vast majority of doctors, scientists and pundits proclaim doom and gloom for the Fall as schools open and Americans will start spending more time indoors. The winter flu and covid season hits from October through March. The CDC messaging on mask use is in shambles. Cable news outlets and local media are showing maps with different colors than the CDC's county map which creates utter confusion. Masks are required by all indoors if in the orange or red substantial or high transmission areas (counties), respectively. Blue and yellow areas represent low and moderate transmission zones, respectively. Some maps substitute blue for white or yellow for white. A Pittsburgh station changes the orange to red and the yellow is blue. Does anyone think this is helpful? It only creates further confusion, frustration, and stress for everyone. People do not pay attention to the CDC guidelines anymore. Instead, people simply keep a mask in their pocket or purse and, if the business prefers people wear masks, or they see that the other patrons have masks, they will use one, otherwise, no one bothers. People revert to common sense behavior when leadership fails.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 8/3/21, at 2:00 PM EST: Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), and proud unionist, proclaims, "Kids have to mask-up." She says, "I'm not promising that schools will be opened but we will try." You better do more than try, Girly, get it done. All schools need reopened for the mental health of the children and teenagers, and the parents for that matter. Some kids have abusive situations at home and school may be their only refuge. Others need the meals and nutrition at the schools. The teachers have gotten used to the easy life, teaching on-line, and do not want to give that up. You can decide if you think that is a fair rap on teachers and their unions, or not. Washington, DC, Mayor Bowser imposes a mask mandate on businesses but is filmed without her mask enjoying a dinner party. She says she was eating and drinking. The hypocrisy continues with politicians decreeing to citizens to 'do as I say not as I do'. No wonder people do not care anymore or pay attention to edicts from politicians. The US is corrupt from top to bottom like any other nation. The corrupt democrat and republican tribes are two sides of the same crony capitalism coin; both swear their allegiance to their party ahead of the United States. That is why you know it is lost. In bombshell news, New York State says Governor Cuomo committed 11 acts of workplace harassment. Casanova Cuomo continues to plead innocence, it is actually a narcissistic ignorance, and refuses to step down. Other democrats and President Biden call for Cuomo to resign. If he tries to stay in office, the legislature will likely begin impeachment proceedings that will also encompass his failed leadership in sending elderly folks, sickened with coronavirus, back to nursing homes early in the pandemic, resulting in thousands of preventable deaths. Cuomo is cooked. Not even the democrat-led state of New York can save him. Comedians label Cuomo's touchy-feely behavior calling it 'cuomosexual'. Cuomo's claim of Businesses and companies continue kneeling to kiss the Biden vaccine mandate ring. Tyson Foods, the huge chicken and meat provider, is requiring all 120K workers to be vaccinated by 11/4/21. New York City Mayor de Blasio hypes "The Key to New York Pass." A stupid name dubbed by a stupid man. De Blasio is decreeing that if you are not vaccinated or cannot provide a negative covid test, you will not be allowed in many businesses or permitted to attend events. The Soup Nazi proclaims, "No soup for you!"
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 8/3/21, at 4:30 PM EST: President Biden provides another coronavirus update but it is the same basic speech as the other day. Biden keeps pushing Americans to get vaccinated so he at least deserves an A grade for persistence. As the pandemic takes a turn for the worse with wave 5 ongoing, the president's approval rating drops 10 points over the last month. The pandemic is the major focus of Americans. If the virus is being defeated the president receives high marks, if not, he is slammed. This was true for Trump and now true for Biden. He says, "Everyone knows we will see cases rise in the weeks ahead." Everyone? This is a stupid statement since the expected outcome of wave 5 is the same as that occurred in India, UK, Spain, Portugal and Netherlands; a sharp increase in cases followed by a quick retracement. "We have a pandemic of the unvaccinated." This phrase is repeated so often that it can be on a bumper sticker. The ole '99% of the cases are unvaccinated people' statement is repeated by Biden and other pundits. They fail to tell folks that the vaccinated cases were not counted. Common folks see the grandiose numbers as phony and instead of acting as encouragement to get a shot, as the politicians and ignorant Ivy League elite that run the organizations think, the too-good-to-be-true numbers are viewed skeptically perhaps actually reinforcing a person's thinking in not taking the shot. The Whitehouse and CDC desperately need to take behavioral psychology classes to improve their messaging and strategies. Their strategy is to talk to Americans like they are children. Biden says there are "90 million eligible for vaccines." Sleepy Joe is fear-mongering; that is the course du jour best served cold. "It is heartbreaking because it is preventable." He repeats the incentives such as $100 to take the shots, and businesses are reimbursed for any costs incurred in getting their workers vaccinated. Biden, using the data from the Whitehouse task force and CDC the other day, decrees that Florida and Texas account for one-third of the current cases. "Please help, if you are not going to help, at least get out of the way." Biden calls out DeSantis in Florida and Abbott in Texas without mentioning their names. The president praises Vermont for vaccinating 69% of their population. Biden proclaims a tiny rate of 5 cases per day per 100K people in Vermont. He says only 3 people are in Vermont hospitals with covid which is tough to swallow. The population of Vermont is 624K people; not many. 39 daily new cases occur yesterday and the peak is 59 cases last Friday. The 7-day MA trend line of new cases is 45 cases heading higher which is 7 cases per day per 100K people. The 5 cases number is close enough for government work. About 5% of Vermonters have been infected with COVID-19 but, like the nation as a whole, the number may be 2 or 3 times higher. Thus, Vermont is at a 74% to 84% herd immunity level. Vermont is experiencing an ongoing wave like other states right now so there is really nothing special about its situation. Vermont likely enjoys low case rates because it is a sparsely-populated state knocking on the herd immunity door. 90% of the China Flu deaths in Vermont were people over 65 years old.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 8/3/21, at 6:00 PM EST: The 90 to 100 million number, which is the remaining eligible Americans that can be vaccinated, is bandied about every 10 minutes by the president, Whitehouse, the task force, CDC, NIH and television pundits. Does that number have merit? 165 million Americans are fully vaccinated. There are 330 million people in the United States. Only those 12 years old and older are eligible for vaccines which is 284 million people. Taking away the 165 million is 119 million people. Some folks cannot be vaccinated due to adverse reactions from past shots, and other medical reasons such as ongoing cancer treatments, and philosophical reasons. Others are not taking the vaccine claiming religious exemptions (not the guy that changed his religion last evening to avoid taking the mandated shot at his company). It is difficult to place numbers on these folks but it is reasonable that 20 or 30 million are in these categories which does add validity to the 90 to 100 million number (89 to 99 million) touted. In Pittsburgh, Keystone knows of several examples, with different doctors, where patients were tested for antibodies, and they were told to not take the vaccine at this time. The doctors and patients are not anti-vaxxer's in any way, quite the contrary, but under their specific circumstances, for those patients that already had covid, they were advised against the shot. This is an important subject that is not discussed by the Whitehouse, CDC or media. How many millions fall into this category since they are unvaccinated but should not be considered eligible for the vaccine. CNN's Dr Sanjay Gupta touts the Whitehouse line that even if you had coronavirus, you should still get the vaccine. This is not the best advice for people and it is not to single out Gupta; virtually all doctors and talking heads are saying the same thing on television. They should be telling people to see their own doctor because the advice the person receives, perhaps after testing, may be the opposite of what the television folks suggest. There are 192 million Americans vaccinated with at least one shot. 284 million are over 12 years old so 92 million would still be eligible but taking away the 20 or 30 million for exemptions, is 62 million to 72 million Americans eligible for the vaccine at this time. Since we are doing a bit of voodoo math because the actual data is not available, the 62 to 72 million range can be married with the 89 million to 99 million range above, and the center point is 80 million. Thus, the '90 to 100 million Americans eligible for the vaccine' number touted on television is not too far off the mark although a number such as 80 million eligible may be a bit more correct. The Whitehouse mistakenly believes that if people do not want vaccinated, it is because they are misinformed. There is some of that but there are equal portions of people that cannot take the shot for medical, philosophical and religious reasons and those that are not taking the shot, based on doctor's orders, since they already had coronavirus. Also, some folks say the vaccine is too new, and no one can dispute that fact. And some simply do not want the shots; it is a free country, isn't it? There is 40% of the medical establishment that is not vaccinated. Of course, the Whitehouse and CDC do not want to discuss this topic. As much as 40% of the CDC are not vaccinated. Walensky avoids the topic saying the employees are not required to report their vaccination status. The vaccine hesitancy due to the newness factor can be combatted by explaining that most long-term effects and problems with vaccines appear within the first 6 months and the US is beyond that time. Trump, Melania and son Barron took the vaccine in January in secret. A couple months later, Trump told the media that he took the shots. That was done for political reasons since he knows much of his base voters are not enthusiastic about vaccines. Democrat media opines about how the vaccine program would have went better if Trump would have taken the shot in public; it would have encouraged his base to get vaccinated. Comically, King Donnie had the shot in January, and Israel is already providing boosters to the older folks after 5 months so the orange man can redeem himself and take his booster shot in public. Don't hold your breath. The finger pointing goes both ways. Of course republican Trump fell short in promoting vaccines but democrats Biden and Harris deserve equal blame dissing the vaccine last Fall because Trump was involved. The bright side, perhaps, is that crony capitalism is on its last legs.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 8/3/21, at 9:00 PM EST: Fauci says the official FDA approval for the vaccine should be coming in a couple weeks definitely by month end. The New York Times says the full approval for the Pfizer vaccine should be coming by Labor Day (9/6/21; a month away). The FDA is remaining quiet but the pressure to provide the official approval may be self-defeating. The medical pundits, Whitehouse and officials in charge want the official approval because they believe it will greatly increase the number of vaccinations. People will feel more comfortable since it will no longer be an emergency-use vaccine and businesses and the military will feel more confident about mandating vaccines. The mandates will obviously increase the vaccination numbers but if the FDA process is viewed as rushed it will be for naught. People on the fence about getting the shot will say they do not trust the FDA since the official approval was rushed and forced-through. Adding further complication, the FDA may provide full official approval for the Pfizer vaccine for the 16 year old's and older. The official approval for younger 12 to 16 year old's would come later after more data is available. That plan does not appear wise. For one, people may be skeptical of the rushed process. Two, when people see the vaccine not officially approved at this time for 12 to 16 year old's, if this occurs, parents will likely not want their kids in that age group to receive the shot at all. There is too much political interference occurring between the Whitehouse and the CDC, and NIH, and other organizations, during the pandemic under both Trump and Biden. The organizations should act more independently rather than constantly trying to placate the political narratives of the party in charge. The CDC reinstates the eviction moratorium for areas of high transmission until 10/3/21. This move by the CDC and Whitehouse does not have legal standing. The Supreme Court said the Congress must approve any further extensions of the eviction moratorium. The thinking is that by the time the courts hear the case and shoot it down, October 3 would have come and gone (at least people struggling to pay rent can hold on for another couple months). A legal challenge, however, could receive an injunction where the evictions would continue without interuption. The Tuesday (today's) daily new cases, available in a few hours, are going to set the tone for the rest of the week.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/4/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The US exceeds 36 million total coronavirus cases and crosses the 630K deaths grim milestone. The numbers are hard to comprehend. Nearly 30 million Americans have recovered so that leaves 6 million folks that are either stuck with lasting health problems, such as long-covid, or dead. The US reports 104.8K daily new cases a punch in the face. Repeating the pattern of last week, the Tuesday number is elevated and the 105K cases are the highest of the current wave 5. The optimism is blown out of the water, however, after taking a deep breath, the cases were 102K on Friday, so the 105K is only marginally above the prior high 4 days ago. In other words, the cases may still be topping-out in this 100K-110K area. Today's (hump day) data takes on added import. If daily cases are above 105K for today, that spells lingering trouble. More hospitals in the south are reaching capacity on ICU beds but other facilities can pick up the slack. Overall, the United States is nowhere close to the situation in January when hospitals were completely overrun. 516 Americans die yesterday. The news for Tuesday is not good but it could have been much worse. Oh my. No wonder. Texas reports 15K daily new cases the highest of the current wave. The migrants crossing the southern border are definitely adding to the spread of coronavirus. New Mexico reports nearly 500 new cases the most of the current wave. Arizona indicates a bump higher in cases but it is not taking off sharply higher like Texas and New Mexico. Missouri, where the India B1617 variant (delta) first started raising its ugly head in America, reports a bump in new cases but remains below its 7/30/21 top in cases. Hospitalizations lag daily new cases by a week or two so even though many southern states are backing off their new case counts, the hospitals are seeing continued increases in activity. That will continue in the south for another week or two and then conditions should improve quickly thereafter. Kentucky reports 1.8K daily cases the most of the current wave so they are on the upswing and their hospitals will be challenged for at least the next 3 weeks. Damn. Oregon cases sky rocket to 1.6K yesterday a huge spike higher. Washington state sees a small elevated bump in cases. The West Coast ports are bringing in infections as usual. California is about to cross the 4 million total cases milestone which is more than most countries. Indiana reports 1.6K daily new cases so as mentioned yesterday, the virus is slightly subsiding in the southern states but it spreads out attacking Kentucky and Indiana. Pennsylvania has a lot of the older people vaccinated, as well as the population, so it may act as a firewall for the Delta variant. The daily cases in the Keystone State hit 1.8K on 7/29/21, a number that is nothing to get too worried about, and are lower ever since. The worst may be over for the southern states case-wise, but the hospitals will remain busy for a couple weeks then notice a reduction in patients. Other states out from the south, such as Kentucky and Indiana, are going to have a lousy month. Ditto the northern West Coast (Oregon and Washington) and the southern border problem (Texas, New Mexico and Arizona). California cases remain below the 7/30/21 top. Florida's daily data is updated again and reports 17K cases yesterday. Saturday was the big 22K daily new cases in Florida the most of the pandemic, then Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are 17K cases each day. The 7-day MA is at 17.7K cases moving higher for Florida but will top out and roll over if the cases remain at 17K or lower each day this week.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/4/21, at 3:00 AM EST: COVID-19 has sickened over 200 million people worldwide. It is amazing that a tiny virus, that likely leaked from the Wuhan Laboratories in China, has causes such devastation around the globe. It is a crime against humanity. 4.3 million people worldwide are dead from the Wuhan Virus. Turkey worsens with 24K new cases the most of the current wave. Italy cases retreat so Europe is heading on a nice recovery path and conditions will greatly improve in a couple weeks. Southeast Asia is or has peaked and is improving. Indonesia leads Malaysia that leads Thailand which will be last to roll over. Indonesia crosses the 100K deaths grim milestone. In China, the Beijing subway is restricting travel to stop the virus spread. The Guardian reports that every province has asked citizens to not leave. In a communist state, that mean stay home and if you don't, you will receive a bullet in your head. There are 400 people infected with the China Flu in China spread across 25 cities including Beijing. Past outbreaks were very localized and easier to handle. China is very concerned about containing the current spread so the lockdowns are quickly expanding. Japan was screwed with daily new cases peaking 8/1/21 in the middle of the Olympics but they are going to pull off successful Games with only a few days remaining. The path ahead for the world is somewhat encouraging but with COVID-19 you never know.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/4/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Former President Obama throws in the towel for his 60th birthday bash giving into criticism and shame. The party is cancelled as many viewed it as a superspreader event. Obama says the party will be smaller but in true political speak refuses to say what 'smaller' means? Perhaps 'only' 200 people will show-up instead of the 500 planned (plus 200 more staff, caterers, entertainers and workers)? The New York Auto Show is cancelled due to the US wave 5 outbreak. The local business owners moan since they counted on the revenue and sales from the show.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/4/21, at 11:00 AM EST: The Marion School District in Arkansas says 500 students and employees are in quarantine at home. 28 have tested positive for covid. Arkansas republican Governor Hutchinson regrets passing mask-banning legislation months ago. "In hindsight, I wish it had not become law." The CDC says 93% of the cases in the United States are the India B1617 variant (delta). The television talking heads continue marketing fear to scare people into getting vaccinated. The 'Delta Plus' variant is pumped as the latest boogey man. The India B.1.617.2 variant (simplified to B1617 in the chronology) was dubbed the Delta variant by the WHO's new stupid Greek naming system. The mutations are E484Q/L452R. The India B.1.617.2.1 variant is identified which is the Delta Plus variant. There is also the India B.1.617.1 variant which is the Kappa variant. Fauci proclaims that a variant worse than the Delta variant may be coming. Osterholm agrees saying the new variant could be "delta on steroids." There is no data to support the claims, if so, it is not public. The fear campaign is in full swing. It is like showing a rotted-out black lung to folks that smoke. Some will get the message and never smoke again but others simply do not care. You only live once.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 8/4/21: The American Academy of Pediatrics reports that over 71K kids are stricken with COVID-19 over the last week. The unvaccinated are blamed for the increase in cases; everything is blamed on the unvaccinated these days even the rain. Think about it. The vaccinated believe they are invincible to coronavirus and have been frolicking maskless for over two months interacting and socializing with each other daily. They brag that 'I am vaccinated so I do not have to worry about anything anymore'. The CDC has greatly failed at messaging. The vaccines prevent hospitalizations and deaths but infections can be carried by vaccinated people and they can still become sick with COVID-19 (symptoms will generally be mild). Who has infected the kids? It is most likely their own parents or a teenage sibling. The other day, an overweight Mom was grieving over the loss of her overweight daughter to covid and blamed unvaccinated people. Meanwhile, the mother was vaccinated and hobnobbing around town each day interacting with many folks maskless. It is most likely she brought the virus home to her daughter. There is not enough data as yet to know what is truly gong on with breakthrough cases and the vaccinated acting as carriers. The young folks, 18 years old to 40, are the least-vaccinated age demographic and are the people circulating in society maskless these days working and attending parties and events. Teenagers and young people in their 20's and 30's, vaccinated and unvaccinated, are most likely bringing virus home that infects the children. Fortunately, kids are not as negatively impacted by covid as are adults.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/5/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 113K daily new cases yesterday and Tuesday's number is revised to 109K cases. The news is not good since another peak in daily new cases means the active cases curve will not flatten and roll over (when hospitals catch a break) until 9/1/21 give or take. Even if wave 5 rolls over in the days ahead, August is going to be a lousy month for the United States. Healthcare workers will keep noticing increasing caseloads over the next week. A small silver lining is that the cases are not going crazy higher, at least not yet. Fauci says cases can tag 200K. Dr Tom Frieden agrees. Hospitalizations remain far below the January mayhem despite the non-stop fear-mongering on television. The democrat-run media, such as CNN and MSNBC, pump the fear that hospitals are at capacity. In a few cities, yes, and the state of Florida, but overall, no. Look at a chart. Look at the CDC's own hospitalization chart. Louisiana is also teasing hospitalization levels not seen during the entire pandemic (click the individual states to see the hospitalization data). Each day is misinformation from people that complain there is misinformation. Of course, things may worsen, but for now the two states most challenged with hospitalizations are Florida and Louisiana. As bad as Missouri has been it is still not at the same level of hospitalizations as the January peak. News stories show COVID-19 patients in the ICU opining that if they live they will spend every remaining day preaching the greatness of vaccines to people. Most Americans see through the childish hype and fear tactics. The patients are fatso's. The number one group that China Flu cuts down are the obese folks. Number one. If you are fat and unvaccinated, and catch covid, you will likely end up in the ICU. Remember Keystone's simple Mailbox Test. If you walk out to get the mail, and are winded or short of breath in any way, call your doctor when you return to the house or apartment; you probably need to look into getting vaccinated but only doc can tell you for sure. The higher new cases are disappointing. The migrant situation at the southern border is adding to the cases. The 3-day MA trend line for US daily new cases is coming back up so it is key whether it makes a higher high, or not. Pray for not. As mentioned the US active cases chart continues higher at 5.8 million active cases. The peak in active cases was over 9.0 million in late January so the active cases, which equates to hospital admissions, hospitalizations and the demands on healthcare workers, is at about two-thirds of what was seen in January. Hospitalizations lag the daily new cases by a couple weeks so the doom and gloom, and fatigue, will remain the ongoing discussion in the employee break room at the hospital. Florida reports 17K daily new cases per day for the last 4 days which makes you start to question the numbers. Texas is in a serious COVID-19 battle currently. New York reports 3.2K daily new cases the highest of the current wave and bad news for the Big Apple. Tennessee reports new cases spiking to 3.8K; bad news for the Volunteer State. A big spike in cases occurs in Kentucky which is a state that is quickly deteriorating into big covid trouble. Damn. Cases in Mississippi sky rocket to 2.8K with 34 deaths the most since March. Missouri cases spike to 4.8K also a high for the current wave. Just when things were looking good with daily cases decreasing in the south, whammo, it is back into the covid stew. Nebraska, Kansas and New Mexico report highs in cases for the current waves. The data and charts map out the progression of the Delta variant from Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas into Tennessee, then up to Kentucky and now up to Indiana and West Virginny. 656 Americans die yesterday the deadliest day since late May. As CDC Director Walensky said the other day, "While we desperately want to be done with this pandemic, COVID-19 is clearly not done with us, and so out battle must last a little longer." Or perhaps a lot longer.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/5/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The world reports 684K daily new cases a higher high for the current wave. Bad news for the planet. 800 Ruskies die per day from China Flu for the last month. Russia's state-run media remains quiet. Bad luck for France reporting 29K daily new cases a tiny bump higher from the near-term peak a few days ago. President Macron says the anti-vaccine passport crowd has gone insane. Perhaps they are the sane ones fighting for their freedom? The street protests and riots in France, Germany, and other nations create increased cases. The UK continues recovering from its wave 4 outbreak but deaths top 130K. Turkey is in trouble reporting another high in daily cases for the current wave. Malaysia cannot catch a break with daily cases spiking to near 20K the highest ever. Malaysia is going to need serious help over the next couple weeks. Neighboring nations need to send oxygen and supplies if they are able. Ditto Thailand. Malaysia and Thailand are the epicenter of the global pandemic and face a miserable month ahead. China reports 500 cases in 15 provinces and the worst outbreak in a half-year. The numbers are likely much higher because the communists lie.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/5/21, at 4:30 AM EST: Pop-pop-pop. The Harley-Davidson V-twin motors echo through the hills of Sturgis, South Dakota. The huge motorcycle rally, a big income producer for the state, begins today and runs through 8/15/21. Republican Governor Kristi Noem denounces last year's claim that the rally was a superspreader event (she's wrong; it was). A crowd of 700K is expected this year way more than the 460K crowd last year that created the superspreader. Noem plans to participate in the rally; maybe she will wear leather chaps and shake her money-maker on stage. That will raise some campaign funds. She decrees that the report last year of a superspreader event "isn't science, it's fiction." Let the party begin. It is booze, bikes and broads, the three B's of the biker code for the next couple weeks in South Dakota. Add a C for COVID-19 and D for Delta variant. Lets park these bikes boys, and look for the The Pusher man.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/5/21, at 8:00 AM EST: The WHO says the developed world should call a moratorium on booster shots until the end of September. The WHO wants 10% of each nation's population to be vaccinated first. Few pay any attention to the WHO since they have shown their allegiance to communist China. The US vaccination rate shown on the CDC COVID Data Tracker chart, is trending higher but check out the last couple individual days comparing them to the prior patterns. Monday's number should have been twice what it was and Tuesday's number is down at the low point only shared by the July 4th low. Thus, the 7-day MA trend line that gleefully slopes higher will likely roll over lower now projected at 450K shots per day. 718K shots per day occurred on 7/30/21 so the fear campaign may have attracted about as many folks as it can pull in. Just like people choosing to continue to smoke despite being shown horrific pictures of rancid cancerous lungs, people choose to be unvaccinated despite the stories and videos of the (fat) people dying of COVID-19.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/5/21, at 9:00 AM EST: The Milwaukee Bucks (Wisconsin) won the NBA championship last month (basketball) and thousands of fans were watching the game on jumbotrons (huge television screens) and celebrating in the streets. 500 people test positive for coronavirus and most say they attended a crowded event but scientists are reluctant to pin all the blame on the game. People flocked to Provincetown, Massachusetts, a favorite vacation destination, creating a superspreader. Lollapalooza occurred in Chicago a few days ago so Illinois will be watching for a pop in cases. The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally will see 700K people over the next 2 weeks in South Dakota. There have been large outbreaks at camps and a few schools. It is easy to see that when a lot of people gather in a crowd, vaccinated or not, there is noticeable spread afterwards. Some of the vaccinated are carrying around virus infecting others but the scientists say (with very limited data) the bulk of the transmission is from unvaccinated to unvaccinated. If unvaccinated, it may be wise to stay away from vaccinated people because they can be carrying the virus and not even know it. Viruses love the human to human interaction and contact. The incubation period is 7 to 10 days for COVID-19 so if you are worried about Uncle Harry coughing on your fried chicken at the barbeque last week, if you are 10 days beyond the picnic, you are fine.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/5/21, at 11:00 AM EST: H Scott Apley, a republican in the Texas legislature, dies from COVID-19. The democrat media are quick to drag his corpse through main street highlighting his anti-vaccine rhetoric days before his demise. Apley had 10 chins and appeared 50 pounds (23 kg) or more overweight; it is obesity that stacked the covid cards against him. He would not have passed Keystone's Mailbox Test so he should have talked to his doctor about the vaccine. Apley leaves behind a wife and young child. Of course, his sad and tragic story is plastered across democrat media to encourage people to get vaccinated. China Flu claims another fatty. As per CDC data, 80% of the coronavirus deaths are overweight and obese folks. Another One Bites the Dust, as Queen would sing. CNN (democrat media) runs a story on intelligence agencies combing through data looking for the origin of China Flu. There is nothing newsworthy but interestingly, the reporter Katie Bo Williams, proclaims that scientists told her that they were aware of all the virus testing at the Wuhan Laboratories and nothing nefarious was taking place. What hapless idiots. It is a communist lab! Those fools are not aware of everything occurring at the labs let alone the secretive labs they know nothing about. Williams comments on the COVID-19 origin controversy saying that the scientist community and others are split 50/50 between the Wuhan Lab leak theory and the natural animal theory. This is blatant bull sh*t. She just pulled this number and proclamation out of thin air. There is no data to back up what she said and she cites no source. If truthful, the informal anecdotal consensus actually leans towards the Wuhan Lab leak theory; the Occam's razor choice. Even more interestingly, when the reporter appears on television later in the day, all this controversial content is not repeated. CNN was likely called on it by others. Do not trust or lay in bed with the communists; they will slit your throat while you sleep.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 8/5/21, at 2:00 PM EST: The Whitehouse COVID-19 Task Force holds a briefing on the pandemic. Zients, Fauci, Murthy and Walensky appear in the television boxes. Zients say cases are "continuing to rise in areas with low vaccination rates. Florida and Texas have accounted for about one-third of new cases and more than one-third new hospitalizations nationwide. In seven states alone, Florida, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, states with some of the lowest vaccination rates, account for about half of new cases and hospitalizations in the past week, despite making up less than one-quarter of the US population." This is a confusing statement that will go over people's heads. Simply say 'the seven states account for half the cases and hospitalizations'. Zients cheers universities and businesses that are mandating vaccines. He says "vaccinations are the best defense." Zients cites CDC data proclaiming, "Over the past 24 hours, we have recorded 864,000 vaccinations, the highest in a day since July 3rd, and importantly 584,000 first shots that's the highest since July 1st." He says the trend in vaccinations continues higher for 4 weeks. The 7-day MA trend is upward-sloping to that statement is correct but the 864K number is problematic and the references to the July dates do not make any sense. Look at the actual CDC vaccination chart. Open your eyes. There is no 864K number on that chart. If the CDC says the number is correct, it proves their incompetence and perhaps purposeful reluctance to update the data and charts in real-time on its website. If they spout data, it should be on the graph and it is not (and is also not shown as of tomorrow morning). These folks are getting cute with numbers. Since the data likely enters in tranches, and since they did not say 'yesterday' or name the specific day such as 'Tuesday' or 'Wednesday', and instead say '24 hours' like weasels, they likely selected the 24-hour period with the maximum shots possible, skewing the data. As per the CDC chart and data, grouping the Monday and Tuesday data together is about 1 million doses or 500K per day nowhere near the 900K decreed. There is funny math going on there. The CDC and task force are either fudging the vaccination rate number to make it look high by being selective with its 24-hour period, or, the CDC is incompetent and incapable of updating its charts and data in real-time.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 8/5/21, at 5:00 PM EST: Maryland republican Governor Larry Hogan tells state employees including veteran's hospital workers, prison employees and social workers, to get down on their knees and roll up their sleeves; King Hogan wants pleased by mandating vaccines. The feud between President Biden and Florida republican Governor DeSantis continues. DeSantis keeps pushing back against mask and vaccine mandates proclaiming that Florida is a "free state." He says Biden has singled-out Florida over the pandemic. DeSantis says Biden has "imported more virus from around the world by having a wide-open southern border. You have hundreds of thousands of people pouring across every month." The governor says Biden "wants to have the government force kindergarteners to wear masks in school." DeSantis wants parents to make these decisions. He decrees that he will stand in Biden's way on these issues. The republican media, such as Fox News, Newsmax and AM talk radio, cheer as DeSantis throws red meat to the conservatives and right-winger's. He saves the best for last knowing the supportive crowd will go wild. "So why don't you (Biden) do your job? Why don't you get this border secure, and until you do that, I don't want to hear a blip (word) about covid from you." The two corrupt political tribes battle. The democrat media broadcasts the DeSantis quote but a truncated version with him saying, "I don't want to hear a blip about covid from you," painting DeSantis with an obstinate negative brush. This is the way the political game is played by the two parties and their corrupt media outlets as the pandemic rages on. The republicans and democrats are two sides of the same corrupt coin. When asked by a reporter to respond to DeSantis's comments, democrat President Biden says, "Governor who?" belittling the republican Florida lawmaker. Florida and Louisiana hospitalizations are the highest of the entire pandemic. 25% of the US hospitalizations are in Florida. Hospitalizations are not an issue US-wide, yet, but some of the facilities in the southern states are stretched to the breaking point. Staff shortages may be an issue going forward. The India B1617 variant (delta) bites hard and fast. The only bright side is that not as many people are dying.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 8/5/21, at 6:00 PM EST: CDC Director Walensky is interviewed on CNN by Wolf Blitzer. She says, "Let's unify as a country." She wants everyone to get vaccinated and wear masks beating these drums repeatedly. She fears that "we could go up to several hundreds of thousands of cases a day." Walensky says less deaths are occurring now because the vaccinations are working. She is asked about the delay in sharing data supporting the new mask guidelines. She says the guidelines were based on data 2 days earlier that was released 3 days later and they wanted to provide the public with information as fast as possible. It sounds like a shell game. She say 164 million people are vaccinated (her own CDC data shows 165.6 million almost 166 million) and 10's of thousands of breakthrough cases should be expected (do you think the CDC already knows this and is choosing not to share the breakthrough data with the public for fear of hurting the vaccination program?). She says the breakthrough cases are mild and do not end up in the hospital (but she and the CDC have admitted they did not collect the data so is this comment made up?). Walensky verifies a key point that the public does not comprehend as yet. Vaccinated people can pass the virus on to others. She says if you are vaccinated going home to an unvaccinated person, wear a mask. The parents complaining about unvaccinated people making their children sick are the actual jackasses that brought coronavirus home and sickened their own children. The CDC director says the FDA is working hard on full approval for the vaccines. The FDA is also looking at 'crossover' studies which are looking at the one-dose J&J vaccine and the impact of using a booster shot that is either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines. She says over 99% of the hospitalizations and deaths are unvaccinated people but humorously just opined in the previous comments that the jury is out on the breakthrough cases (and they have not been collecting this data). The two statements do not match; one is wrong. Either they know a lot more about the breakthrough data that is not being made public, or, the 99% number is made up out of whole cloth and bandied about solely to encourage vaccinations. Walensky says if you are in a large crowd with unvaccinated people, wear a mask but in a crowd of vaccinated people, you would have to decide. Based on her discussion, vaccinated people should wear masks because asymptomatic spread can occur and then they take the virus home to their unvaccinated child. The mass, er mask, confusion continues. She says kids 5 to 11 years old will be next in line for vaccinations once approval is received. She calls for masking in all schools. Walensky says summer schools and camps without masks resulted in outbreaks. The interview was very comprehensive.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 8/5/21, at 7:00 PM EST: In the US, only 11% of pregnant women are vaccinated. With 3.7 million US births per year, that is a few million women choosing not to get vaccinated. In the UK, virtually all pregnant women are avoiding vaccination. The shots were not recommended for pregnant women initially so that negative connotation may be sticking in some of the female minds worried about their unborn baby. An idiot on democrat media mentions "pregnant people." In fairness, the CDC website has a section devoted to 'pregnant people' so no one can blame the pretty reporter for reading what a writer wrote into a teleprompter. Pregnant people. That is hilarious. What nonsense. It makes you laugh out loud. Hey morons, it is pregnant women; men do not get knocked-up. Open your eyes and shake the fog and dust out of your stupid mind. The odd adult baby stuff occurring in the United States, where new non-sensical labels are being forced down people's throats, is hurting society. The corrupt republican media calls the corrupt democrat media the 'progressive woke left'. Media sources are starting to say that hospitals and ICU's are overrun with "mostly" unvaccinated people. What happened to the 99% number everyone touted the last couple weeks? Now it is mostly. Some media outlets must be privy to the breakthrough data at the CDC? The CDC and Whitehouse proclamation that the vaccination rate is at the "highest level in over a month" is not supported as yet by their own data and charts.
Note Added Friday Morning, 8/6/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The world is at 202 million COVID-19 infections and almost 4.3 million people dead. The world reports over 706K cases yesterday, a 7 handle, another punch in the face. Each time the daily rate of change slows hinting at a potential top ahead, whammo, daily cases spurt higher again extending the pain and misery. Fortunately, the 10.4K global deaths yesterday remains below the 10.5K deaths one week ago. The India B1617 variant (delta) is more contagious but not as deadly. This is verified by the current death data and knowing that only a fraction of the earth is vaccinated. This is typical virus behavior where over time, the pathogen becomes more transmissible but it is less deadly. Indonesia continues recovering off the peak of new cases. Healthcare workers should be noticing an improvement in caseloads and if so, try to send help and supplies to your neighbors in Thailand and Malaysia that continue reporting daily records of cases and deaths. Russia exceeds 4.1 million total cases as Dictator Putin continues hiding in the basement of one of his palaces behind a gold-plated jukebox. France remains challenged with cases trying to level-out. Humorously, the French media is calling the pandemic Macron's Waterloo. COVID-19 was King Donnie's Waterloo in the US last year but after all, it would be more appropriate for President Macron to wear the Waterloo banner. Germany's daily cases keep inching slowly higher. Oh no. Mexico reports 21K cases the most of the current wave and almost the highest cases ever. Texas, in the States, better prepare itself; things will likely worsen quickly there and in New Mexico, Arizona and southern California (US border states). 611 Mexicans die the most since February. Guatemala remains in terrible shape so the wave moving up through Central America, Mexico and now the US southern states is a nasty bug. Cases and deaths are inching higher again in Costa Rica after it looked like the worst was over. Panama improves. Cuba remains in bad shape. Iran and Iraq remain in terrible condition with infections and deaths running rampant through the Middle East cities. Israel reports 4.4K daily new cases the highest of the current wave 5 and most since February. Israel, with its great vaccination program, is now circling the Delta variant drain like everyone else. Israel continues its new booster shot program for folks over 60 years old and 5 months beyond their last shot. Japan reports 14K daily new cases the most of the entire pandemic as the Olympics are finishing-up on Sunday. Deaths remain very subdued in Japan only a dozen or so per day. Australia reports 304 daily new cases the most in one year! The land Down Under is infected with coronavirus although the numbers remain small compared to other nations. 5 Aussies die yesterday the most since last year.
Note Added Friday Morning, 8/6/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports 121K daily new cases. The clock just fell off the wall in Walensky's office. 121K is the most cases of the current US wave 5 which is terrible news. Texas daily new cases are elevated above 14K for the last 2 days. The Mexico data mentioned above portends misery ahead for Texas. Florida reports 20K daily cases for yesterday jutting higher after 3 days at the 17K level. California reports 11.7K daily new cases the most of the current wave. When highly-populated states like Texas, Florida and California see rising cases, it is going to jam the overall US data higher. Ditto New York and Illinois also showing higher highs in cases. Ohio cases are now climbing higher. The Pennsylvania firewall is still holding. Damn, every state that is clicked is showing higher highs in daily cases including North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia. Maybe it is easier to name the states that are not making higher highs. Cases continue leveling-off in some of the southern states and in Nevada and Utah. The Delta variant is fast-moving. It will be interesting to see how much damage the India variant creates in the more vaccinated states such as Pennsylvania and states in the Northeast. The US wave 5 continues worsening mainly because the highly-populated states are pumping the overall numbers for the country higher. There is hope as the southern states and a couple western states, that were the leaders of the delta wave a week ago, are now trying to peak. The biggest revelation this week, that most of the population has not grasped, is that the virus can be carried and transmitted by vaccinated people (and this may be occurring with far more frequency than thought). The vaccinated parents, interacting maskless with many people all day long, can be asymptomatic virus carriers that infect their unvaccinated child. Parents are used to complaining that their kids get them sick. Now the children can complain that Mom and Dad gave them coronavirus.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 8/6/21: The CNN keeps showing an incorrect herd immunity graphic. There is a small note to the side that says the source is the CDC but scouring the website backwards and forwards, it is not there. Perhaps CNN is referencing the 70% to 85% herd immunity level in the graphic and not the chart itself. These percentages are correct and have been touted, and blessed, by Lord Fauci. The problem is that the CNN chart does not reference the natural immunity contribution to attaining herd immunity. It is blatant misinformation. Fauci has said for a year that herd immunity is at 70% to 85% and, importantly, is a combination of vaccine immunity and immunity gained through past infection. Fauci's declaration of herd immunity for the last year does not agree with the CNN graphic that needs to show the natural immunity as part of the progress bar. The CDC must have washed the herd immunity stuff from their site because it is like searching for a needle in a haystack. In their glossary section under 'herd immunity' they tell you to see 'community immunity' and that says, in plain black and white, that herd immunity is achieved when a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infection disease through vaccination and/or prior illness. That's a wrap. Fix your graphic CNN since the misinformation only serves to confuse the public each time it is displayed. The natural antibodies are at 10% of the population and the CDC's data says it may be as much as 30%. Some of the people that had COVID-19 got vaccinated despite having natural antibody protection. Lots of pundits are also in a tizzy that the India variant (delta) creates a new metric but that remains to be seen. The CNN graphic shows the US 50% vaccinated with the goal for herd immunity at 70% to 85%. This graphic is incorrect since it does not show the natural immunity contribution to herd immunity. Add a bar that represents 10% to 30% for natural immunity and that will place the total at 60% to 80% now sneaking into that 70% to 85% herd immunity zone. The CDC's own information disagrees with the CNN graphic and comically the graphic has the CDC listed as a source. That's funny. American Mediocrity is on full display daily as crony capitalism crumbles.
Note Added Friday Evening, 8/6/21, at 6:00 PM EST: President Biden, dressed in a tan suit, continues his plea for Americans to "get vaccinated." He repeats the mantra, "It is a pandemic of the unvaccinated." The Delta variant may derail Biden's presidency and the democrat agenda. DeSantis fires back at the president after Sleepy Joe pondered, "Governor who?" when asked about Florida. Governor DeSantis opines, in an offensive manner, "I guess I'm not surprised that Biden doesn't remember me. I guess the question is what else has he forgotten?" Meow. DeSantis feeds the republican media narrative that the president is not all their mentally and may have Alzheimer's. Biden just crossed DeSantis off the Whitehouse Christmas card list. Amazon returns to a mask requirement for all workers indoors. United Airlines is the latest corporation to bend knee and kiss the Biden ring mandating vaccines. The mask and vaccine mandates increase each day as the US wave 5 continues wreaking havoc. News reports say 90% of the patients in Louisiana hospitals are unvaccinated people. That's funny. They were saying 99% for the last week; now it is 90% out of the blue. If 90%, then 10% of the people sick in Louisiana hospitals are vaccinated people. Where's that breakthrough data, CDC? Walensky must be hiding it in those white storage boxes under the conference room table.
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