By K E Stone (Keystone)
There’s good news and bad news for the COVID-19 pandemic.
What do you want to hear first? The good news is the Pfizer/BioNTech and
Moderna mRNA vaccines are in distribution across the US, Europe and elsewhere,
and adverse reactions are minimal. Also, the Thanksgiving holiday surge is
built into the US daily new coronavirus case numbers. The bad news?
The US active cases chart will need another three weeks to
flatten and potentially roll over to the downside. Also, the potential surge in
virus cases from the Christmas and New Year’s holidays is not yet factored into
the data (the daily new cases and active cases charts) which will be a January
story. Dr Fauci, on CNN, says, “We very well might see a post-seasonal, in the
sense of Christmas, New Year’s, surge, and as I’ve described it, as a surge
upon a surge.” There is also a new more transmissible coronavirus variant
discovered in the UK. This new COVID-19 mutant strain is called "VUI-202012/01." The VUI stands for 'Variant Under Investigation'. The UK's Union Health Ministry identifies the virus lineage as B.1.1.7. People commenting on the strain are calling it, "B117." On second thought, the pandemic remains mostly bad news.
December is the worst month of the pandemic; this was
obvious as the month began. 1 in every 1,000 Americans are dead from
coronavirus this year. Over 340K Americans are dead. This is nearly seven
Vietnam’s and 100 9-11’s. About 3K Americans are dying daily which is a 9-11
each day.
A bomb explodes in Nashville, Tennessee, on Christmas
morning damaging 41 buildings and a couple city blocks wounding three people. Tennessee
is one of the hardest hit covid regions in the US right now as the state data
shows below. The Volunteer State is hit with a triple-whammy of tragedy; covid,
terrible storms and floods in recent weeks and now a bombing. President Trump
is golfing in Florida and Vice President Pence is skiing in Colorado.
President Trump remains a sore loser cry baby after the
11/3/20 election and now a grinch. Trump refuses to sign the fiscal stimulus
bill so relief programs, such as unemployment insurance, will expire for the millions
of huddled masses that cannot find work. The president wants the individual
payment amount in the stimulus bill to increase from $600 to $2,000 after his
negotiator, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, representing Trump, agreed to the $600 amount.
Oddly, but nothing is strange under the Donnie presidency, Trump may veto his
own bill.
Trump is lashing out at everyone unable to accept the
election loss. His dad told him that you are a pathetic piece of vile garbage
if you ever lose in life and that losing is the worse thing on earth that could
happen to a human being, so obviously he is trying to mentally process the loss
and one-term president status. At this point, with only 25 days remaining in
office, King Donnie is adopting a scorched-earth policy extracting revenge
against republicans that have not supported his fantasy about overturning the
US presidential election. The US crony capitalism system is in complete political
disarray and dysfunction with the pandemic spinning out of control. Enemies
attack when they sense weakness.
The Georgia runoff elections, that determine the fate of the
Senate, are 1/5/21. The next day, Congress accepts the electoral college
results of the presidential election naming Joe Biden as the winner and Donald
Trump as the loser. Delusional Trump believes he can make another
final-final-final try at overturning the US election on 1/6/21. Sleepy Joe
Biden becomes the 46th President of the United States (POTUS) on 1/20/21 when
King Donnie will be sent to pasture. Hopefully, Donnie does not make a scene
refusing to leave the Whitehouse; it would be embarrassing for the nation to
see the local constable knocking on the door and the police telling him he is
evicted. Millions of Americans will be evicted or foreclosed upon in early 2021
without a stimulus bill. What a mess.
Mexico and Russia are the two most underreported coronavirus
tragedies ongoing around the world. Dirtbag Dictator Putin stifles the news
flow from Russia. US authorities should be concerned about Mexico since the
southern border states (California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas) may
experience great difficulty in tamping-down coronavirus. Arizona reports ICU
(Intensive Care Unit; this is where they stick a breathing tube down your
throat) beds at 93% capacity and climbing. The US government should be
educating people in the southern states to be extra vigilant but there is no
one in charge of the show.
King Donnie is golfing and tweeting the last three days. He
told the locker room attendant and caddymaster at Mar-a-Lago that he won the
election. Over the last couple months, Trump never talks about coronavirus
unless it is in reference to the vaccines; the dude can never admit he is
wrong. To acknowledge the ongoing COVID-19 hardship and misery, and the virus
spiraling out of control at its worst, is to recognize his failure as
president. Trump fancies himself as a Ronnie Ray-gun (President Reagan) or a
Winston Churchill larger-than-life figure, however, he is neither. The
opportunity to prove his leadership skills and create a lasting legacy in
America history was the handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Instead, it
turned out to be Trump’s Waterloo, as Stonewall Jackson sings.
Now that the vaccinations are underway, the focus
intensifies on herd (community) immunity and when it may occur in 2021. The medical community prefers the term 'community immunity' probably because it does not sound as animalistic and primal as 'herd immunity'. Community denotes a human connection although there are plenty of ecological, biological, and animal communities. Herd immunity is
the ultimate goal since the virus can no longer easily replicate and society
can return to normal. The virus is defeated when the active cases chart curve
rolls over to the downside and the virus is pounded into obscurity when herd immunity is achieved.
Fauci and others say that 70% to 85% of Americans need
vaccinated to create herd immunity which is between 230 and 280 million people
(US population is 330 million). The US may have about 20 million people
vaccinated in early January (originally this goal was by the end of the year)
so there is a long road ahead. If about 10% of the people drop out of the
vaccination programs after the first shot for various reasons, that would
result in about 60% to 75% of Americans vaccinated, say by late summer.
Estimating that about 15% of Americans have had covid (some
have had the disease and do not even realize it; others have battled through
the virus at home without seeking medical attention), this yields a total
antibody protection percentage at 75% to 90% which is enough for herd immunity
(add 15% to the 60% to 75% vaccination numbers). You always want more, but this
would do the trick.
With a Sharpie, draw 500 hash marks (representing 500 million shots into 250 million American arms) on
your doorway and cross one off for each one million vaccinations. At
Christmastime 2020, the US has a cross through only two hash marks (2 million shots) with 498 million more to go. When all the hash marks are crossed-off, 250 million Americans will be vaccinated and, along with those that have had the disease, the USA will achieve herd immunity and life can return to normal; as long as one of the new
variants do not cause additional mischief.
If 2 million people are vaccinated per day going forward, that would be 248 days until herd immunity is achieved which is early September; Labor Day. Each person requires two shots. It is a formidable task. President-elect Biden proclaims that he wants 100 million vaccinations performed during his first 100 days. Incoming presidents always focus on the first 100 days as a launching board for carrying out their agenda and campaign promises. Biden likely means 100 million shots and not 100 million people so that would create about 50 million immune people by April 1. Add that to say another 20 million from December through early January so perhaps about 70 million people will be completely vaccinated (150 million doses) by 4/1/21. That would be a great goal to shoot for but it is not going to be anywhere near enough to tamp down the virus. By May the US had better be sticking 2 million and more arms per day or this virus will linger well into 2022.
Hopefully, the medical folks are running the same numbers. The sooner they level with Americans the better; it may actually convert and encourage a lot of folks to wear masks and socially distance more diligently which would actually help defeat the virus. If 4 million shots are given per day, 124 days would be needed for herd immunity which is early May. This is not going to happen. If 3 million shots are given per day, 186 days would be needed for herd immunity which is early July, say Independence Day. It's an all-hands-on-deck situation.
The vaccines will likely be available going forward in early 2021 so America, and other nations, need shot-giver's more than anything. CVS and Walgreen's are stepping up to the plate providing skilled pharmacists for the task at hand in the US but this may be the bottleneck in the vaccination program. The nurses already have their hands full taking care of patients let alone provide vaccinations now as well. A tired and disheveled nurse, at the end of her shift, searches for a way to make herself and her colleagues smile, and says, "Maybe I can do that in my spare time." The nurses share a laugh but for only one minute. They immediately return to work as if they are reliving the non-funny parts of a MASH television episode each day. The nurses are obviously exhausted and overworked and now walking straight into a covid inferno for two months.
Over the next couple months, which will be the most
difficult of the pandemic, prayer is the only thing that can help America,
Russia, Mexico and many other seriously infected covid nations. The public will
face the realization that they are living through the worst of the pandemic in
January and February.
The Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccinations continue. The
AstraZeneca, J&J and Novavax conventional-style vaccines are in trials
currently and data should be released any day forward. It is important to
succeed with the non-mRNA vaccine/s because many folks that are apprehensive
about the new messenger RNA technology will agree to receiving the more conventional-style
vaccination. This may come into play in the spring and summer if the number of
Americans willing to be vaccinated dwindles.
China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), spawned at the two bioweapons
biolaboratories in Wuhan, has infected 81 million people around the world
killing 1.77 million souls. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party), led by dirtbag
Dictator Xi, who has no respect for the sanctity and dignity of life, unleashes
bioterrorism upon the planet; even on their own Chinese people. CNN had an
interesting special on the origination of the virus and the bats and all that
other bunk and showed one bioweapons laboratory in the film, and not the other.
Over 57 million people have recovered worldwide (71%; 7 in
10 people in the world that were infected with covid have recovered; this
number is moving in a positive direction up +1% over the last week and up +2%
over the last three weeks).
The Wuhan Flu, or China Virus, has attacked and sickened 19.5
million Americans (5.8% of the 330 million US population; this number keeps
increasing at a steady pace; 1 in every 17 US citizens have been infected with
COVID-19), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering 340K United
States citizens. One American is dying every 26 seconds from covid with US
daily deaths exceeding 3K deaths per day. The deadliest covid day in the US is 3,614
deaths on 12/16/20. On a positive note, that peak day of deaths was 11 days
ago. 11.4 million Americans have recovered from covid (59%; this number is steady
sideways not improving but not deteriorating either; 3 out of every 5 Americans
that were infected with covid have recovered).
The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the
United States. America is only 4.2% of the world’s 7.8 billion population but
has one-fifth (23.8%; worsening over the last month) of the coronavirus cases
and one-fifth (19%; holding steady over the last month) of the deaths.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world at 19.5 million followed by India (10.2 million now a reluctant
member of the dreaded 10 million-plus club), Brazil (7.4), Russia (3.0), France
(2.5), UK (2.2), Turkey (2.1), Italy (2.0), Spain (1.9), Germany (1.6), Argentina
(1.6), Colombia (1.6), Mexico (1.4), Poland (1.3), Iran (1.2), Ukraine (1.02), Peru
(1.006), South Africa (983K), Netherlands (744K), Indonesia (707K), Czechia (668K),
Belgium (637K), Romania (614K), Chile (596K), Iraq (591K), Canada (535K), Bangladesh
(508K) and Pakistan and Philippines both at 469K total cases. California, Texas
and Florida have over 1.2 million cases, California is over 2 million, so three
US individual states have more coronavirus total cases than every nation on
earth except for 14 countries.
27 nations above have over 500K total virus cases. Russia
crosses above 3 million total cases. The UK worsens leapfrogging Italy and
Turkey moving into number six on the tragic list. Eight nations have over 2
million total cases with Spain knocking at that door. Germany worsens
leapfrogging Columbia and Argentina to number 10 on the list. Ukraine leapfrogs
Peru but both are now members of the 1 million total cases club which now has
17 depressed members. South Africa is knocking at that 1 million total cases door.
Romania worsens leapfrogging Iraq and Chile.
In the future, China must pay dearly for its out-of-control
bioterrorism experiment. The pandemic will be at its absolute worse when
President Trump leaves office, and President-elect Biden is sworn-in, at the
inauguration on 1/20/21.
14 countries have over 1,000 deaths per 1 million
population. The worst is Belgium at 1,650 per 1M, followed by San Marino,
Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Italy, North Macedonia, Peru, Andorra, Spain,
Montenegro, UK, Czechia, Bulgaria and the USA at 1,024 deaths per 1 million
population. France, Mexico and Hungary will likely join this sick death cult club
before the pandemic ends.
In total deaths, USA is number one with nearly 340K dead
followed by Brazil with 191K dead, India with 148K dead, Mexico with 122K dead,
Italy with 72K dead, UK with 70K dead, France with 63K dead, Russia with 55K
dead, Iran with 55K dead and Spain with 50K dead. 10 nations have over 50K
citizens dead from covid. Canada has 15K people dead from covid so North
America has dug 477K graves, may as well call it a half a million graves,
during the last 10 months for folks perishing from coronavirus.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model, the
Keystone Model for short, uses the daily new cases to project when the active
cases chart will flatten and roll over which signals an end to the pandemic. A
couple words about charts. The daily new cases charts are the bar charts
typically shown on cable news television and in internet articles. The daily
new cases bar chart helps identify the virus waves and is used to project when
the peak in the active cases chart will occur.
The active cases chart is the most important chart since
this is the curve that needs to flatten and then roll over to the downside to
create the bell shape, hence the term, “flattening the curve.” The flattening
of the active cases curve represents the maximum strain on the healthcare
system subsiding and then the active cases curve dropping off on the right-hand
side, to form the bell shape, verifies that the virus is being defeated and
healthcare workers can catch a break. Alas, the US active cases chart above is
a sick pup continuing higher and explained below.
The daily deaths charts are presented in a bar chart format
like the daily new cases. The total deaths are represented as a cumulative
curve, such as the often-quoted IHME Model chart, that continues higher. The
cumulative death curve needs to flatten to show that the dying has ended. The
misery continues if the death curve continues higher. China has stricken
tragedy and mayhem upon America.
The Keystone Model identifies the peak date in new daily
cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active cases bell curve will
then peak 1 to 4 weeks later, signaling that the pandemic is subsiding and
weakening, depending on how the virus situation is handled.
If the country, region, locality or state is well-prepared,
the active cases chart will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases
peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days typically
holds true for communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments,
such as red China, since the population has to do what it is told or they
receive a bullet in their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia,
Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in this same short time period as
the initial wave. Australia and Singapore, however, are the only current
shining example on how to defeat the virus. China cannot be trusted.
Japan is getting hit hard with a third wave now reporting
the highest daily new cases ever. Ditto South Korea that is held out as a blueprint
to follow but they just reported the highest number of daily new cases ever
with a third wave hitting hard. South Korea is not a blueprint; instead, it has
a covid boot print on its forehead. Time will tell if Japan and South Korea can
control the pandemic in the 11-day window, or not. Ireland also handled the
pandemic quickly early this year but is having difficulty now with the daily
new cases the highest for the current third wave and the active cases curve
continuing higher.
If the country is not well-prepared for a pandemic, or a free
nation, non-communist, like the US and other Western nations,
non-authoritarian, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new
cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive
at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will begin to
subside and hopefully decrease; the top of the bell curve where the strain on
the medical systems and personnel is at a peak).
Citizens in Western nations live more feely and
independently so it is difficult to control a pandemic. Israel is of course a
key part of the Free World but PM Netanyahu’s authoritarian style aids the
country in maintaining control over the virus for three distinct waves,
however, a new wave four is in progress with daily new cases rising again.
Israel announces a lockdown that will begin this evening and run for two weeks.
Time will tell if Israel snuffs-out the fourth wave quickly, or not.
The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for
forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher
daily new case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of
new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case
peak date where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus
better) to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The
behavior of higher daily new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping
higher, signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all
nations and regions want their daily new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart
is important since it represents the maximum stress on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data is key and will increase a couple
weeks after the new cases increase (which makes January and February appear
ominous) but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain under
doctor’s care with fatigue, shortness of breath, and other symptoms, after they
recover from the worst of the virus, which creates an ongoing demand on the
healthcare system.
Other semi-recovered patients are sent home or to other
medical facilities, or nursing homes, and not counted in the hospitalization
data but they remain a strain on the medical system. Some patients continue
therapy for months on an out-patient basis and this continues to require
medical staff and supplies. A couple of athletes that have recovered from covid
drop over on the sports field and basketball court. The lingering symptoms of
shortness of breath are causing doctors to suggest that athletes have heart
imaging performed to make sure all is normal.
The healthcare demands will remain robust for the next couple
years before this sick covid pandemic is in the rearview mirror. God Bless the
healthcare workers, nurses, doctors and first responders especially since they
are about to go from the frying pan into the fire over the next two months.
Americans are partying and trading covid kisses under the mistletoe currently. Many
will become sick in January. Some will die. A big spike in daily new cases will
occur in early to mid-January.
The coronavirus pandemic is under control and defeated when
the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner.
The term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the
US active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases,
hospitalizations, deaths or any other virus charts.
The US daily new cases bar chart is shown above with the
current peak in daily new cases at 255,774 on 12/18/20. On Wednesday, 12/23/20,
the US reports 233,486 daily new cases. As per the Keystone Model, 8% from the
256K number is 235K but the 12/23/20 data does not surpass this number,
therefore, the peak in daily new cases remains 12/18/20. This is good news
because it verifies that the surge after Thanksgiving is likely finished.
Plain as the big nose on your face, cases spike from 12/2/20
through 12/23/20, thus, from Thanksgiving Day, cases spike 6 to 27 days hence
(1 to 3 weeks). This pattern will likely repeat for the Christmas and New
Year’s holidays so the US daily new cases may not peak until between 1/7/21 and
1/28/21. The Friday data is typically
the record-setting data but Christmas falls on a Friday. The data may fall
behind and become choppy for the days ahead until the holiday period is over.
The 7-day moving average line (which smooths the data out so
a trend can be identified) has rolled over lower creating cause for
celebration. However, it rolled over right before the Thanksgiving Day parties
as well. The covid pain will subside if the daily new cases remain less than
235K. If the daily new cases exceed 235K, America is screwed again and
conditions will quickly deteriorate. So watch that 235K daily new cases level
closely.
The pink circles show the holiday party periods (Easter,
Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving and
Christmas/New Year’s) which lead to more new cases. The Christmas and New
Year’s holidays will lead to a spike in daily new cases into mid to late January
as outlined above.
The US active cases curve above shows the United States is
in a third wave; it is an exponential wave (parabolic; vertical). The highest
number of new daily cases occurs on Friday, 12/18/20, at 256K as discussed
above. A quarter-of-a-million Americans are becoming infected with covid daily.
The US daily new virus cases are above 145K per day for
every single day since November 10 (sans Christmas Day); that is 47 days
running! US daily new cases are above 183K cases per day since December 1 (sans
Christmas Day); that is 26 days running!
As per the Keystone Model, adding 28 days to the new case
peak date of 12/18/20 is 1/15/21. Sadly, the first chance that America has at
flattening the active cases curve will be in mid-January. That’s terrible. And
this outcome is only in play if the daily new cases do not exceed 235K (8%
below the peak at 256K) which is likely foolish thinking. If the daily new
cases continue higher after the holidays, the flattening of the active cases
curve will be pushed even further out into the new year.
The US active cases chart shows the current trajectory of
the virus with the blue dotted-line and the projected peak on 1/15/21. The red
dotted-line shows the projection forward factoring in the holiday parties. A
surge in daily new cases will occur in January which will pump the active cases
chart higher with the earliest chance of flattening the curve in mid-February.
Do not kill the messenger. Keystone is often the bearer of somber news based on
statistics. His invitation to the holiday party must have gotten lost in the
mail.
America blew it this year. Trump’s handling of the pandemic
is disastrous. The US needed the leadership to tell everyone to stick it out
for two more weeks back in late May and nix the Memorial Day celebrations and
the year would have played-out far different. We would be nowhere near this
mess going on currently. The US is in serious trouble right now with the
pandemic mess escalating but most people are whistling past the graveyard more
concerned about forcing another slice of holiday ham down their pieholes.
Patterns repeat and a spike in cases will occur after the holidays
just like after Thanksgiving. January will be covid Hell. Ditto February. Maybe
March. The virus spreads when folks party at events, concerts, bars and in
small home settings but there are also many other reasons.
The US daily deaths bar chart is shown above. 3,614
Americans die from COVID-19 on 12/16/20 the deadliest day of the pandemic. TheInstitute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) makes projections on the US
death count. Currently, the US covid death count is at 340K dead on 12/27/20.
The current projection by IHME is 562K dead by 4/1/21. The worst case scenario
is 714K dead by 4/1/21 if the mandates are eased. This exceeds the 1918 Spanish
Flu epidemic that took 675K lives. The IHME estimates 540K dead by 4/1/21 if
the vaccines are rolled out quickly and 505K dead by 4/1/21 if a universal mask
mandate is implemented. The US will probably double the death count over the
next four months.
The healthcare professionals know a lot more about treating
covid now than months prior. Many older folks most susceptible to the virus,
with preexisting conditions, have croaked. Vaccines and other treatments are on
the way in 2021. Young people are becoming proportionally more infected these
days and they tend to remain asymptomatic and recover faster. Perhaps the death
rate will trail-off for these reasons rather than accelerate higher.
The South Korea chart is shown above. South Korea reports
1,237 daily new cases on 12/25/20 the highest ever. No one is touting South
Korea anymore. Malaysia’s chart shows daily new cases at a record.
New York’s chart is shown above with the daily new cases at
record highs the highest ever. We need Governor Cuomo’s leadership book more
than ever to find out what to do next. Where is that book? There it is, under
that table leg.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information are available to push the
story forward. We are into the holiday season but many folks are joyless since
the US coronavirus active cases curve (above) is heading higher with no signs
of flattening. This tells you that more COVID-19 sickness, sadness and tragedy
is ahead and 2021 will begin on a down beat.
This is Article 29 in K E Stone’s (The Keystone Speculator) coronavirus
series of articles that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This twenty-ninth article is published on Sunday, 12/27/20.
Only four days remain in this virus-stricken year but the worst of the pandemic
is yet to come in January.
Keystone’s covid articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during
2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it
occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring and recorded in real time.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus
Article 13 published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US
Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive
Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases
Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave;
European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill;
RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru,
Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave;
Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North
Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware,
Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress
Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States
Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill;
COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on
9/12/20.
The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US
is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling;
10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia,
Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing
Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report
Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland,
Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain,
Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN
Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to
Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction;
WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST
LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on
9/24/20.
The twenty-first article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump in
Hospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases Bell
Curve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey,
Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a
Disappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri,
Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the
Midwest and Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K
Americans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected;
Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes
in New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands,
Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress
Continues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital;
AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21
published on 10/4/20.
The twenty-second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to Flatten the
Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers; Vaccine and
Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases Including the Dakota’s,
Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado,
Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas, Connecticut and
Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including US, Canada, Germany,
Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland, Czechia, Poland,
Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into COVID-19 Hell; Bubonic
Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely Before the 11/3/20
Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on 10/14/20.
The twenty-third article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/24/20; United States
Reports Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever; America Fails to Flatten the Active
Cases Bell Curve; Nearly 230K Americans Dead; Delusional President Trump Says
Coronavirus is “Going Away”; Worst 28 US States are Wyoming, Alaska, Rhode
Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas,
Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma,
Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana,
Maryland, Iowa and Illinois; US Map Shows Hot Zone States Correlated to
Interstate Highway Routes; Worst Countries are USA, UK, Canada, Mexico,
Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany,
Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Iran and Turkey; Virus Spreading
Rapidly in Europe, Western Asia (Eastern Bloc), Middle East and North America;
US Fiscal Stimulus Kabuki Theater Continues; US Presidential Election Only 10
Days Away; AMERICA EXCEEDS 100,000 NEW CASES PER DAY; Coronavirus Article 23
published on 10/24/20.
The twenty-fourth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/5/20; America Exceeds
118,000 New Cases Per Day Highest Ever; US Hit with Third Wave; Europe Under
Lockdown; 39 Nations Including United States in COVID-19 Hell; US Presidential
Election Vote Count Continues with Biden Leading Trump; Johns-Hopkins Reports
America Daily New Cases at 122K Highest Ever; Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows
Tests Positive; Worldometer Reports America Daily New Cases at 133K Highest
Ever; Joe Biden Named 46th President of the United States; President Trump
Refuses to Concede; Global Cases Exceed 50 Million; US Cases Exceed 10 Million;
Pfizer Vaccine Successful in Human Trial; US Daily New Cases Tragically at 188K
on 11/13/20; Coronavirus Article 24 published on 11/5/20.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data are tracking each other well in recent
days with the Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a
couple-few days. The COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of
information and data available for those wanting to study and understand the
virus in more detail.
The increase in daily new cases has to stop and level off,
hopefully decrease, before there is any hope that the medical systems and
personnel will receive relief about four weeks in the future (when the active
cases chart flattens). Realistically, US healthcare services will likely have
to be rationed going forward. Doctors may be faced with difficult decisions
about who lives, and who dies, in the weeks ahead. Unfortunately, by the end of
the year, everyone, not just the poor folks and those of color, will know a
family member, friend, relative, or guy down the street, that has died from
covid.
The following nations are success stories that have beaten-back
the latest virus waves. The active cases curves have flattened and rolled over
creating the bell shape verifying that the virus is defeated for these
countries; New Zealand, Australia, India, Peru, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
Philippines (data is messy), Oman, Guatemala, China (the bioterrorists that
unleashed the Wuhan Virus bioweapon upon the planet), Venezuela, Singapore,
Ecuador (problematic data), Iraq, Uzbekistan, Ethiopia, Nepal, Austria, Armenia,
Jordan, Morocco, Portugal (daily new cases may want to move higher), Italy,
Poland, Romania, Iran, Hong Kong, Finland, Croatia, Belize, Pakistan, Turkey, Georgia,
Hungary, Moldova and Ukraine.
It appears the virus has run its course, for now, in that
troubled western Asia, eastern Europe, northern Middle East region (Hungary,
Turkey, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine). Ukraine, a bigtime covid trouble spot for
months, finally rolls its active cases curve over. Ditto Turkey. Dictator
Erdogan rules with an iron fist. Belize is also added to the good list after it
quickly snuffed-out a spike in cases. Ditto Pakistan that rolls its active
cases curve over to the downside. Finland is also succeeding in beating back
covid so it is pulled from the list below and added above. Ditto Croatia.
Hong Kong is also placed on the list above after rolling its
active cases chart over and it maintains the 11-day gap between the peak in
daily new cases and the peak in active cases. Countries such as Ireland and
Indonesia tackled their original first wave outbreaks quickly in the 11-day
group but conditions have deteriorated in current waves that places their
models in the 28-day camp. Thus, a country that handled the virus quickly and
efficiently, in that 11-day grouping, may not necessarily handle a future
outbreak as efficiently. Japan and South Korea, that everyone pointed to as
examples on how to defeat the virus, are now trying to survive a third wave.
Chile takes a turn for the worse with a second wave
underway. Much of the citizenry may not yet realize it. Chile’s daily new cases
are the highest for this new second wave and at levels not seen since July. Bolivia
reports a big spike in daily new cases over the last week. Bolivia’s active
cases curve begins moving higher starting a second wave and trouble ahead so it
is taken off the nice list above and placed on the naughty list below. Ditto El
Salvador that reports the highest daily new cases ever on 12/12/20.
Argentina reports a spike in daily new cases which ushers in
a hesitant second wave. Venezuela is on shaky ground but remains on the good
list for now. That’s five South/Central American countries going south quick;
is the new variant strain attacking the continent? Note that all of these
countries are at or near the Pacific Ocean and on the west side of South and
Central America. It hints that the start of these new waves may be occurring
from a virus strain coming from Asia; perhaps the dirtbag Chinese CCP has a
hand in it.
The Philippines is skating on thin ice with the daily new
cases steady but hinting that they may break out higher. For now, the
Philippines (choppy messy data) stays on the good list above but do not be
surprised if it ends up on the bad list below in a future article. Malaysia and
Indonesia are the two worst coronavirus outbreak nations in Southeast Asia
currently.
Switzerland is removed off the list above as its daily new
cases experience intermittent spikes higher and the active cases curve moves
higher. Bahrain drops from the list above to the list below as daily new cases
rise beginning a third wave for this Middle East nation.
All the countries listed above are doing better at handling
the pandemic than the nations listed below (based on the data which nations may
or may not be reporting truthfully). The 38 worst global hotspots, that have
not yet flattened the active cases curve, are highlighted below. The projected
peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment
and systems), based on the Keystone Model, are provided. The nations towards
the bottom of the list are in the worst covid trouble currently.
Greece (Second Wave) (there are
issues with the data)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/12, 12/18 and 12/19/20)
11/30/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; curve continues higher)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest since July)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/23/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart may have peaked on 12/23/20 as forecasted,
give it a few days)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 7/29, 12/16 and 12/17/20)
12/28/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second ongoing over last 2 months)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; chart may have peaked)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/29/21 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever at 256K!!!)
1/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/20/20 New Case Peak Date (bad
news; highest new cases ever)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Switzerland (Third Wave) (messy
choppy data)
12/21/20 New Case Peak Date
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
12/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/7, 12/14 and 12/21/20)
1/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/18 and 12/23/20)
1/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
12/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 12/17 and 12/23/20)
1/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/24/20
New Case Peak Date
1/4/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; may have peaked)
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave are 12/22, 12/23 and 12/24/20)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for this new third wave)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/23 and 12/24/20)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/25/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
12/25/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Colombia
(Second Wave)
12/25/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/5/21 Projected
Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Bolivia
(Second Wave Begins)
12/25/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
1/5/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/25/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave are 12/24 and 12/25/20)
1/5/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/25/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for fourth wave 12/24 and 12/25/20)
1/5/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/25/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave 12/24 and 12/25/20)
1/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/25/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/23 and 12/25/20)
1/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Chile (Second Wave Begins) (there
are issues with the data set)
12/26/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
12/26/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/25 and 12/26/20)
1/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
12/26/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
12/26/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in December)
1/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
12/26/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever are 4/10/20 and 12/26/20)
1/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/26/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave)
1/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/26/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in December)
1/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
The coronavirus data is not getting better for the world.
The virus continues to circulate around the globe repeatedly with nations
playing whack-a-mole. It subsides in one region and intensifies in another;
when that region improves, the virus is attacking a different cluster of
countries. And these dire scenarios are playing out with the standard COVID-19
virus. The new more transmissible strain has potential to create far more
infections at a faster pace which feeds global angst. People cringe each time
the new variant pops up in another country. In South Africa. Ouch. Japan. Ooh.
France. Oh my. This may not end well although the scientists say the mRNA
vaccines should be able to handle the new mutant strain.
The UK continues to struggle now shackled by the new
coronavirus variant strain (variant under investigation; VUI) called VUI-202012/01 or B.1.1.7 or simply B117. The COVID-19 variant is believed to be 70% more
transmissible than regular covid although not as deadly. What does that mean?
Picture Keystone, unknowingly infected with COVID-19, walking into a room where
a group of people are gathered (they were probably there to tell him he was
full of sh*t). He realizes he forgot his mask but he has to sneeze and,
ka-choooo! Keystone exits the room quickly since the stares from people are
non-welcoming. Let’s say three people become infected from Keystone’s COVID-19 germs,
droplets and aerosols that continue to float around the room for a couple
hours. If Keystone had the new coronavirus UK variant strain in his lungs,
throat and nasal passages, that is more virulent (this is a ten-dollar college
word that means ‘extremely severe’ and ‘harmful’) than regular ole COVID-19,
five people would become infected instead of three. Likewise, if six people are
infected with COVID-19, the new UK strain would have infected 10 people and if regular covid infected 30 people, the new UK strain would infect 50. We do not need a
more transmissible virus we need a less transmissible one.
Ireland takes a turn for the worst. Spain reports a big
spike in daily new cases which ushers in a new third wave. This hints that
Portugal may fall into the covid soup again over the next couple weeks. A spike
in daily new cases is occurring in France ushering in a third wave while the
active cases curve continues higher and higher. Europe may be slipping away
into more serious trouble again. Italy and Spain begin the Pfizer/BioNTech
vaccination program which is a positive.
Russia remains a covid Hell hole. The press is muted so the
world does not understand the plight of the Russian people that are dropping
like flies. Dictator Putin’s health will likely deteriorate as the months play
out so perhaps Russia is prime for a good ole-fashioned revolution in the
future. As mentioned above, Israel begins a new lockdown to try and squash that
fourth wave.
Chile had defeated the virus from August through November
but the daily active cases are on the rise sending the active cases curve
higher and beginning a dreaded second wave.
Indonesia and Malaysia are the two worst Asian nations
currently. Malaysia reports the highest daily new cases ever. That’s not good. The
Philippines is on shaky ground trying to maintain the current sideways move of
the virus. Japan and South Korea are fighting for their lives with nasty third
waves.
Japan will likely announce stricter lockdown measures. As
this is typed, coming across the wires, Japan is not letting anyone fly into
the country. Several UK folks brought the new variant into Japan the other day.
South Korea’s model testing and tracing program is under siege as smaller
onesies and twosies outbreaks are making tracking more difficult. The prior
outbreaks were groups of people at a club or event that were easier to trace.
Australia and Singapore are two examples of the best handling of the pandemic
while all other nations keep dipping in and out of the sticky covid swamp.
North America remains under siege. The USA, Mexico and
Canada are in bad shape with active cases curves continuing higher and higher.
172 Canadians died from COVID-19 on 12/23/20 the deadliest day since April and
May. The worst data from Canada is released on Mondays such as 12/7, 12/14 and
12/21/20, thus, Canucks must brace themselves for tomorrow’s data (12/28/20).
Canadians should wear mittens tomorrow so you can keep your fingers crossed as
the data is released.
The troubled US states are highlighted below with their
projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on
healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. 42 US states have failed to
flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to fall back into covid Hell again as new cases and then active
cases rise with new waves.
At least this is better than 3 weeks ago when all 50 states
were on the list below with new cases rising and the active cases curves not
flattening.
The following 14 states have rolled their active cases curve
over to form, or start forming, the bell shape, and verify that the virus is being
defeated; Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Wisconsin,
Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and New Hampshire. Nebraska is
added to this good list which expands from 8 states in the prior article to 14
now. Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and New Hampshire are rolling their
active cases chart over to the downside. The Midwest states are battling back
at covid and beginning to stabilize which is great news (although the Christmas
and New Year’s holiday’s loom).
The worst 36 states are listed below. The absolute worst are
at the bottom of the list since their daily new cases are escalating the most
in recent days and hopes of flattening the active cases curve is a month or
more out into the future. An increase in new cases leads to higher active cases
and hospitalizations which then leads to more deaths. January and February are
not going to be a pretty picture and several hospitals may buckle under the
pressure.
US hospitalizations hit 120K but now pull back a bit to 118K
which is hopeful news and another sign that the patients from the Thanksgiving
holiday parties are working their way through the medical system.
Missouri
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (curve continues higher)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (chart continues higher)
12/1/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
12/29/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever occur in November and early December)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/1 and 12/3/20)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/4 and 12/5/20)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/14, 12/3 and 12/4/20)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (may have peaked 12/20/20)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/6/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/9/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/4 and 12/12/20)
1/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/8 and 12/14/20)
1/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/7 and 12/14/20)
1/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/13 and 12/16/20)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/12, 12/14 and 12/19/20)
1/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/18 and 12/22/20)
1/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/18 and 12/23/20)
1/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/9, 12/12 and 12/23/20)
1/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (data is choppy and messy)
12/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/12, 12/22 and 12/23/20)
1/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/23 and 12/24/20)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/24/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave almost ever)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/25/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/17 and 12/25/20)
1/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/25/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/18 and 12/23, 12/24 and 12/25/20)
1/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Massachusetts (Second Wave)
12/26/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
That’s an ugly list. Covid is targeting the US East Coast
infecting Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia and
Florida, and working inland to West Virginny, Arkansas and Alabammy. Texas is
spanked hard by covid and it is difficult to improve when Mexico is a giant
infected covid nest. The virus is spreading out of control in Mexico and the
southern US states are reporting ICU beds at over capacity.
Georgia is in the political spotlight with the two Senate
runoff elections on tap 1/5/21 only nine days away. The daily new cases hit
their highest ever on Christmas Eve in the Peach State. It looks like lots of
democrats are mailing in votes like the presidential election unwilling to
leave the house. The ongoing coronavirus outbreak may deter folks from visiting
the polls?
New York reports 12.5K daily new cases in recent days the
most ever. Keystone has been looking for a copy of Governor Cuomo’s book in the
bargain bin at Ollie’s but with no luck. Perhaps when the restaurants reopen,
someday, Keystone will find a copy of Cuomo’s book on the floor being used to
level a table. New York needs to reference Cuomo’s ‘Leadership Lessons from the
COVID-19 Pandemic’ to find out what to do going forward. Cuomo brags in the
book that the pandemic was handled great but it is now at its worst ever. Maybe
he will write a second book?
Tennessee is smacked hard with a triple whammy of trouble; coronavirus
cases, storms creating massive flooding and damage, and on Christmas morning, a
bomb. The investigation continues. Three are wounded.
Two Americans are dying every minute from coronavirus. The
pandemic is spiraling out of control and the United States is leaderless.
President Trump is in power for only 24 more days. America will likely not be
able to flatten the active cases curve until mid to late January and this is
not including any surge from Christmas and New Year’s parties which will extend
the misery into February. We’re screwed. The coronavirus pandemic in 2021 is
going to look a lot like 2020.
The United States will probably be going into covid panic
mode just as President-elect Biden is sworn into office. The US hospital system
will likely be collapsing. If you have a heart attack in January or February, or
twist your ankle after stepping on a Lego, it may be difficult to receive quick
care.
Coronavirus preferentially kills obese people and those with
diabetes, hypertension and high blood pressure. Age is also a factor since
anyone under 69 years old that is healthy should beat the disease but anyone
over 70 has one foot in the casket. Unfortunately, nothing can be done about
age, but of course diet and exercise will make you healthier and better
equipped to fight covid.
Avoiding people is the key. Shop once per week. Limit your
interaction with the public. Remember to keep your immune system at the maximum
strength possible by taking zinc, vitamins A, C and D-3, and turmeric, each
day. Check with doc but this regimen will maintain your body at maximum
strength. Walmart and other stores are already out of zinc like the springtime.
Take zinc and D-3 daily as a bare absolute minimum.
Attention folks of color such as blacks, browns, Latino’s
and Native Americans; take vitamin D-3 and zinc each day! Tell your neighbors!
A bottle of D-3 is cheap only a buck or two and something you can find at the
dollar store or Walmart. It is important you step up and become proactive for
your own health and your family’s health so take that zinc and D-3 each day.
The government should be handing out free bottles of zinc and D-3 to folks in
the inner city, on reservations, in rural poor areas such as Appalachia, in
prisons and to the homeless sleeping on city streets.
The medical community needs to continue investigating treatments for coronavirus including the use of ivermectin (deworming medicine that is effective against covid) and hydroxychloroquine (the malaria drug that helps with preventive care and early onset of covid but is useless once the disease takes hold of your body). Also, tonic water is of interest as a preventive measure against covid. Tonic water contains quinine which is a distant relative to hydroxychloroquine. The medical community says it is useless but if it does not hurt, why not? Consider drinking a small bottle of tonic water each day or every other day. Humorously, many Americans are already drinking tonic water daily pouring it into a highball glass along with a shot of gin, and a twist of lime; a temporary escape from the pandemic stress.
Open minds should consider the EVMS (Eastern Virginia
Medical School) COVID-19 MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL which explains the MATH+ and other
protocols for treating coronavirus. America has to relearn how to row in the
same direction instead of everyone splashing around in circles. It takes
leadership to have everyone singing from the same hymn sheet and this is what
the country and society lacks these days. Donnie’s out golfing again; he just
sliced a drive off the fourth tee into the woods. He told the greenskeeper that
he won the election.
A recent study reports that nearly 80% of Americans say
covid is adding to their stress in their daily lives. Humorously, the other 20%
are likely retired. Sadly, for healthcare workers, the number is 100%.
Hospitals need more personnel. Older, and even retired, nurses are pressed back
into service. Some states are so desperate for healthcare workers that you
would get hired even if you were only a candy striper for one day 30 years ago.
If you can yell the word, “Stat!” you’re hired. Doctors, nurses and medics will
have to pace themselves over the coming two months since it will be a hairy
time. Channel the tortoise and the hare story in your mind and repeat out loud,
“slow and steady wins the race.” The icy and snowy roads in the northern states
will add to the coronavirus misery early in the new year.
The flu typically picks up in January and February so
hospitals may get hit with a double-whammy of covid and regular flu patients.
Perhaps the covid vaccination may help combat the regular flu? That is a
question for a doctor. Or similarly, those that have had a flu shot this
season, will that help combat covid? The regular flu season typically accounts
for between 25k and 65k deaths each year so a lot of those bodies will likely
end up being reported as covid deaths.
Folks that have beat coronavirus are asked to donate plasma.
‘The Fight Is In Us’ website is promoting the idea of donating your valuableplasma.
The isolation due to coronavirus restrictions, poor economy and wintertime is no doubt getting folks down but better days will be ahead. About 40 million Americans deal with OCD (obsessive compulsive disorder), ADHD (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder) and PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder) issues. 17 million Americans deal with depression. You are not alone, folks! Hang in there, better times are coming.
Suicides remain elevated so make sure you check on folks that may be having a
tough time. If you are feeling blue, despondent, tired, maybe disgusted, or
even angry, seek out folks to talk to including on line. Tomorrow will always
be a better day. Always remember to wait just one more day since things will get better. Help is a simple phone call away at
800-662-HELP (4357) or 800-273-8255. Those are good listeners and
non-judgmental folks on the other side of the line that are always glad to
help in any way they can.
The mRNA vaccines continue around the world. 2 million
Americans are vaccinated out of a desired goal of about 250 million to reach
herd immunity levels in 2021. The longest journeys begin with the first step
and we are on our way. Concern remains that not enough Americans will be
willing to take the vaccine.
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