By K E Stone (Keystone)
Happy Thanksgiving; not. This year, America is cooked
instead of the turkey. It is a retrospective holiday for many Americans isolating
at home as the pandemic rages out of control. Other Americans throw caution to
the wind and freely travel over this weekend holiday. Travel statistics show
recent days as the busiest of the entire pandemic. Americans are sick of
worrying about the pandemic and instead choose to party like its 1999, as
Prince would sing. Pandemic, schmandemic, they say, at least until they become
sick with covid and a breathing tube is slid down their obese neck. Healthcare
workers are screwed going forward; this does not end well.
The United States is excited about potential vaccines
quickly becoming available over the next few months, but in the near-term,
America is a virus-infected nation spiraling deep down into the coronavirus
rabbit hole. It is very likely the US medical system will be in collapse when
the clock strikes 2021. All you can do is hope and pray otherwise.
COVID-19 is in an exponential growth phase in the US. The
timing could not be worse due to the end-of-year holiday fun at hand, people
suffering pandemic fatigue and the cold weather chasing people indoors. This is
the season for social fun and good cheer, camaraderie, a time for family and
relatives, a time to catch-up with old friends, a time to share laughs and
enjoy the human experience, the physical touch, the sights and sounds, the
smells, the tastes. Alas, hopes for human joy are torn asunder by China’s Wuhan
coronavirus maiming and murdering anyone daring to enter its wake.
The pandemic will be around well into and through 2021
despite what officials say. The outlook is dire over the next two months. Remember,
the vaccines are of no use until they become vaccinations. There are storage
and logistics issues as well as the ongoing health and safety concerns. The
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines use new mRNA technology. If the scientific
community does not get out in front of social media, right now, to educate the
public about these vaccines, they will be toast.
To credit the CDC, they are being honest with people and
telling them that some will feel sick after they receive the shots. There are
two shots about three weeks apart so how do you convince the public to get the
vaccine, then, after they may be sick for a day after the first shot, have them
enthusiastically show up for the second shot when they know what is going to
happen? Honesty is the best policy. That is what people want to hear. Give them
the facts.
One of the reasons the pandemic is a disastrous chaotic mess
in the States is that people were told not to wear masks in February and March because
they are not that effective. The medical community was telling a white lie
because they wanted the masks to go to the healthcare workers (the filthy Chinese
communists hoarded all the available PPE (personal protective equipment)
supplies around the world while they said the virus was no big deal; that is
what filthy dirtbag communists do).
The white lie to Americans was a big mistake. People figured
out what was going on since they saw the doctors and nurses bundled up in
hazmat suits protecting their masks with their lives. The medical community
owned up to it admitting that masks help and should be used by all but it was
too late; public trust was completely shattered. Chaos, confusion and distrust
continues ever since. Maybe the ship can be righted going forward. Tell people
the truth; they can handle it. They are Americans.
If people were told that the medical community needed all
the masks when the pandemic began, the country would have bandied together
proudly building esprit de corps, instead, Americans are lied to so people are directionless
and left to stumble around in disarray mistrusting any information they are
told. Where are the leaders? Surely not in California, Lalaland, where hypocritical
Governor Newsom imposes draconian measures on the population that he himself
does not follow.
Newsom closes restaurants and tells people to stay at home but he was partying with people from the health department in a fancy French restaurant. It's ridiculous. Do as I say not as I do. This behavior breeds mistrust so
people do not follow the guidelines and the pandemic spreads. Newsom is not the only one; this Gilded Age behavior is occurring across the United States by weak governors, senators and local leaders, and most are democrats. The liberals better look themselves in the mirror before they throw rocks at the president for not following the covid guidelines.
It remains an unknown how long the vaccines can protect the
body. It is also unknown if the vaccines will respond to virus mutations that
may develop over the coming weeks and months. Piling on more vaccine drama, the
public may become concerned about the new mRNA technology potentially altering
the human body’s DNA. That will be Frankenstein scary to most Americans and if
social media begins pumping this idea into folk’s heads, people will be running
from the vaccine not to it. Initial laboratory studies on animals do not show
DNA changes occurring but the technology remains a new frontier. Some skeptical
people will be whispering in other’s ears, “Go ahead, you first, you take it
first.”
China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, spawned at the two
secretive biolaboratories in Wuhan (most think there is one lab but there are
actually two), has infected over 60 million people around the world killing 1.42
million souls. Dirtbag Dictator Xi is responsible for this crime against
humanity. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) unleashes bioterrorism upon the
planet; even on their own Chinese people. To be a communist is to have no
respect for the sanctity of life. Nearly
42 million people have recovered worldwide (70%; 7 in 10 people in the world
that had covid have recovered).
The Wuhan Flu, or China Virus, has attacked and sickened 13
million Americans (3.9% of the 330 million US population; 1 in every 25 US citizens
have been infected with COVID-19), the highest number of cases in the world,
murdering 266K United States citizens. The deaths preferentially hurt the
communities of color, poor and disadvantage folks, and people with other health
conditions, comorbidities, such as diabetes, obesity and heart and lung
disease. 7.6 million Americans have recovered (58%; 3 out of every 5 Americans
that had covid have recovered but this number has slightly worsened over the
last two weeks).
The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the
United States. America is only 4.2% of the world’s 7.8 billion population but
has one-fifth (22%; up 1% over the last two weeks) of the coronavirus cases and
one-fifth (19%) of the deaths.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world at 13 million followed by India (9.2 million), Brazil (6.1), Russia (2.2),
France (2.2), Spain (1.6), UK (1.5), Italy (1.5), Argentina (1.4), Colombia (1.3),
Mexico (1.1), Germany (966K), Peru (952K), Poland (924K), Iran (894K), South
Africa (772K), Ukraine (662K), Belgium (562K), Chile (543K), Iraq (540K), Indonesia(512K)
and Czechia is up to 503K total covid cases.
There are 3 nations with more than 6 million cases, 11
nations with more than 1 million cases, 14 nations with more than 900K cases,
and 22 countries on earth with more than 500K covid cases. In America, 15
states have over 300K coronavirus cases. The US fails at handling the pandemic.
Over the last week, Russia leapfrogs France with more cases.
Russia is covid Hell on Earth and yet there are very little news stories. Putin
is likely preventing the press from showing virus-infected Ruskies dropping
like flies. Italy jumps two spots on the list so conditions continue
deteriorating in the boot-shaped nation. With Italy’s economy in shambles, the
winter will be dark.
Germany leapfrogs Peru on the list so citizens continue
partying together drinking beerski’s, enjoying laughs and spreading the virus.
Germany will be next to join the dreaded 1 million total cases club probably by
the end of this month. Peru is nipping at Germany’s heels. Poland jumps two
slots on the list its medical system strained to the maximum. At the current
rate of infections, Poland may join the 1 million club before Germany and Peru.
Ukraine remains mired in covid jumping two places on the list reinforcing the
Russia discussion. That eastern Europe western Asia area is infested with coronavirus
perhaps it is a particularly nasty strain or mutation.
The US is in a third wave; it is an exponential wave
(parabolic; vertical). The highest number of new daily cases occurs on Friday,
11/20/20, at 204,163 cases breaking through the 200K barrier and even 204K. The
daily new case rate crossed 100K per day on 10/30/20. It took about 8 months to
go from zero to 100K cases and then it takes 21 days to tag 200K. The US
reports over 150K new cases per day for the last 15 days running. What!?!
Keystone tells America what he told his buddy when he bailed him out of the
county lock-up, “You’re in a world of sh*t.”
The new and all-time peak in new cases is 11/20/20 so adding
28 days, as per the Keystone Model explained below, targets the peak in the active
cases chart for 12/18/20, which represents the maximum strain on healthcare
workers and medical equipment. The Keystone Model uses a 28-day period between
the peak in new daily cases and the peak in the active cases. America’s next
chance to flatten the active cases bell curve chart is the third week in December
right when a big influx of patients will probably be occurring due to today’s
Thanksgiving Day parties. The future is dark not bright.
Healthcare professionals pull out their last remaining
strands of hair. Exhausted nurses, doctors and medics are frustrated, and sad,
that they are working hard to help save people while many Americans choose to
party and do not care if they get the virus. Many folks, following Trump’s lead
over the months, shun masks and laugh at social distancing instead following
the mantra that you only live once, which is true, although covid may hasten
this process along.
The US daily new cases bar chart shown above highlights the
11/20/20 all-time record high cases above 204K. The 7-day moving average has
gone parabolic but over the last few days the upward slope is slightly less
vertical. In this pandemic, you have to grab onto any thread of hope and
optimism that you can find no matter how small. Friday, tomorrow, 11/27/20, is
key. The largest increases in daily new cases occurs on Fridays probably due to
the way hospitals and other medical facilities report the data and then how it
is jointly tabulated.
If tomorrow’s daily new cases data is sub 204K cases, which
it has been in recent days in the 150K to 175K daily new cases range, there is
hope that the current third wave may be ebbing. This by no means says the US is
in the clear; on the contrary, it only verifies that America will have the next
chance to flatten the curve during the third week of December right before
Christmas. Covid Hell will continue through December into January. If the daily
new cases tomorrow exceed 204K, that will be devastating news since it begins
guaranteeing that America’s medical system will collapse come the first of the
year.
The US active cases chart shown above is the key chart for
‘flattening the curve’ and creating the ‘bell-shaped curve’. The short dark blue
lines show the gentle slope higher for the first wave, then a steeper increase
in active cases for the second wave, and now the exponential near-vertical rise
in active cases. The orange dotted lines show that for the two prior waves the
active cases chart started flattening and potentially rolling over to create
the bell shape, and verify that the virus was being defeated, but instead the
infections increase and the US fails. The pandemic accelerates higher because
people want to keep partying and cavorting with one another; that’s what humans
do, unless you live in a communist state like China.
Humans enjoy close contact with each other sharing laughs,
stories, music and memories. The pandemic strips that enjoyment from all our
lives. The blue dotted line in the active cases chart is the current path of
the pandemic with the chart projected to peak and flatten-out on 12/18/20 and
then roll over lower to create the bell shape (hopefully). The virus is going
to be with us into next year no doubt about that. As long as the daily new
cases do not exceed that horrific 204K number, the blue dotted-line will become
reality, however, if the daily new cases ratchet higher, and pay attention to
tomorrow’s data, that will create the red dotted-line which represents pain,
misery and disrupted lives for many months to come, vaccine or no vaccine.
The most tragic line is the brown dotted-line showing what
may happen due to the Thanksgiving Day parties that many are enjoying at this
moment. This is the 'surge upon a surge' that Dr Fauci has started to talk about the last few days. Thanksgiving Day may be the superspreader event of superspreader’s.
America may be trying to flatten the curve as Christmas approaches but the
Thanksgiving whammy will hit taxing hospitals beyond their capabilities. The
brown line represents the American medical system collapsing as the new year
begins.
The vaccines will be available to patients and healthcare
workers during the weeks ahead, by the end of the year and early 2021, while
shots may be available to the general public in April 2021 and later. This may
work out well since the public can see if the healthcare worker guinea pigs
suffer any adverse symptoms from the shots, or not. If things go well, people
will be more open to participating in the vaccine program. The medical
community has to rebuild trust with the public, especially if they want to
stick needles in everyone’s arms, twice, and this is only accomplished by incremental
wins and positive news over time.
Unfortunately, trouble, even larger than the virus, may be
brewing in vaccine land. Big Brother is here. Vaccines are probably going to be made mandatory
if you want to get on an airplane, enter a sports stadium, attend a concert or
participate in other life events; the Mark of the Beast shows its demonic face.
If a mountain of vaccines are available with no takers, the US government will
probably begin putting the figurative gun to people’s temples until they are
forcibly inoculated. Nurses are already forced to take flu shots each year or
they are fired. Isn’t America great? Forcing folks to get injected with mercury
(Thimerosal) as a condition of employment. Forced vaccinations and inoculations,
especially shots that may alter human DNA, will send humanity down a dark path
from which it will never return. Obviously, massive social unrest will result.
The US daily deaths bar chart above is ugly and worsening.
On 11/25/20, there are 2,304 covid deaths in the US the highest number since
5/6/20 at the height of the springtime pandemic. On 11/24/20, there are 2,194
covid deaths in the states. The 7-day MA continues sharply higher professing
more doom and gloom ahead. No doubt hospital administrators are ordering more body
bags and inquiring about the availability of mobile morgues (refrigerated
tractor trailers to store dead bodies).
The latest Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) death
projections are 658K dead Americans (worst outcome) by 3/1/21 if mask mandates
are not in place or removed and everyone is doing their own thing. There are
266K dead Americans currently. The IHME projects 471K American deaths by 3/1/21
if the status quo is maintained and 405K dead (best outcome) if a strict
universal mask mandate is implemented. The CDC says 321K people will be dead by
12/19/20. Dear Lord! The 1918 Spanish Flu took 675K lives in the United States.
Will the 2019 Chinese Flu, coronavirus, ever approach that number or sadly
exceed it? COVID-19 is the worst pandemic in the United States in over 100
years and it rages on out of control.
The healthcare professionals know a lot more about treating
covid now than months prior. Many older folks most susceptible to the virus,
with preexisting conditions, have croaked. Vaccines and other treatments are on
the way in 2021. Young people are becoming proportionally more infected these
days and they tend to remain asymptomatic and recover faster. Perhaps the death
rate will trail-off for these reasons rather than accelerate higher.
Folks 69 years and older remain the most susceptible to death
from covid especially those with diabetes and respiratory illnesses. About 1 in
20 people that contract covid, that are over 69 years old and older, die. If an
older loved one becomes infected, realize that they have a 1 in 20 chance of
croaking. For those under 69 years old, only about 1 in 300 people that are
infected with covid will die. Those odds are a lot better. Seniors immediately
throw their canes behind the sofa and hide their walkers under clothes
proclaiming that they plan to remain 68 forever.
The New York daily new cases bar chart is shown above with
new cases ramping higher each day. The new cases are now at levels not seen
since April. Governor Cuomo has been hawking his book bragging how he led New
York through the pandemic but hey buddy, look behind you, it’s still there.
Cuomo remains mired in the nursing home scandal when thousands of seniors died
because infected patients were returned to these facilities early on in the
pandemic. Cuomo waved the victory flag too early; he needs to put that down and
get back to work because he has some hellacious problems to face over the next
couple months as the pandemic spreads.
Russia’s tragic daily new cases chart is shown above and it
is ugly perhaps the ugliest in all the world. Russia is reporting deaths at 500
a day; just think what the real number could be. Dirtbag Dictator Putin has
cancer and the onset of Parkinson’s Disease and the country is mired in
coronavirus. Vlad does not walk around with his shirt off anymore probably
because he does not want anyone to see a PICC (peripherally inserted central
catheter) in his right chest. The Russian people should be in revolt over the virus
numbers. Maybe they are and the world does not know about it. The charts are
horrific for Russia. The daily new cases and their 7-day MA are ramping higher
forecasting more misery and sickness ahead for the Ruskies that are huddled
around coal stoves eating borscht.
Turkey’s terrible daily new cases chart is shown above
another ugly display of virus misery. Dirtbag Dictator Erdogan is in bigtime
trouble. The crowd with the pitchforks and torches will be searching for him.
Daily new cases are parabolic which will lead to large numbers of
hospitalizations and deaths. Turkey may implode due to its fragile economic and
political state creating chaos and conflict across the Middle East, eastern
Europe and western Asia. Erdogan was a reasonable chap 15 years ago but the
power of the office always corrupts; naked women fanning you and feeding you
grapes all day is habit-forming. Turkey was a beautiful nation in the 1970’s;
the string bikini beaches were a favorite American tourist destination. Now if
you went there you worry about getting shot.
Europe and North America are mired in the coronavirus
pandemic. In Europe, France President Macron wants to scale back the lockdown
but it may be more prudent if he waited until the week of 12/7/20 since the
active cases curve should be in the process of flattening and potentially
rolling over lower by then (which is a good thing). German Chancellor Merkel
wants to stay the course with lockdown measures as is for a bit longer, trying
to convince the population it will be worth it. Germany is also nearing a point
where the active cases may begin flattening.
Both France and Germany would be best served to tell the
citizenry to hold on for two more weeks and diligently follow the guidelines
but this is easier said than done especially with people protesting in the
streets and suffering from pandemic fatigue. Interestingly, Germany is in a
slightly better shape than France and yet the latter wants to relax
restrictions while the former wants to maintain the current course for another
couple weeks (which would be smart since Germany would likely defeat the currnt
virus wave).
The virus misery deepens in America as new lockdown measures
are imposed on people. Citizens begin hoarding supplies again including masks,
hand sanitizer, paper towels, toilet paper and other necessities. Store parking
lots are filled with cars. Merchants are limiting the number of purchases for
specific items. A customer’s shopping cart carries a frozen turkey, six
packages of masks, a jar of cranberry sauce, hand sanitizer, a box of stuffing
and toilet paper. It is a strange Thanksgiving indeed.
Life has changed in America because of the CCP’s filthy
bioweapon. China’s deadly coronavirus is murdering thousands of innocent souls
each day. Communist Dictator Xi laughs with glee as he monitors the progress of
his sick bioterrorism experiment. Unfriendly foreign nations will create
conflict against the United States if they sense vulnerability.
Television pundits keep talking about the vaccine promised
land next year and all that is needed is a bridge to this utopia where flowers
sprout syringes loaded with vaccine. ‘Good luck wit dat’, as they say in
Brooklyn. That rickety bridge has to cross over a dangerous pandemic canyon
where the virus is burning out of control. Four months can be a lifetime when
dealing with a highly-contagious virus and unrelenting pandemic. Americans are
an optimistic bunch, however, and continue whistling past the covid graveyard.
Many are celebrating the holiday mask-less with friends and family; turkey roulette
if you will.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM), the Keystone Model for short, is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information are available to push the
story forward. Actually, it is 11 days since the last article but today is
Thanksgiving and a great day to publish and once again take stock in the coronavirus
nightmare pandemic.
This is Article 26 in the coronavirus series that provides
real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists,
market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials, news organizations,
traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This twenty-sixth
article is published on Thursday, 11/26/20.
The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are
the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the
ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic,
the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning in March
2020 and sooner, through the present day, experiencing the daily virus
zeitgeist, good or bad. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is the raw
pandemic truth and human emotion occurring and recorded in real time.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing
$700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive
Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising;
India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for
Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland,
Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy,
France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan,
Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore
Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the
Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE
(Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US
COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article
5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America
Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida,
Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst
States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political;
President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes
Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US
DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South
and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s,
Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South
Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina,
Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China
Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus
Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras,
Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are
in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12
published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus
Article 13 published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France and
Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US
Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive
Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases
Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave;
European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill;
RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru, Honduras,
Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave; Worst US
States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota,
South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii,
Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues
Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States
Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill;
COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on
9/12/20.
The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US
is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling;
10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia,
Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing
Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report
Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland,
Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain,
Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN
Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to
Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction;
WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST
LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on
9/24/20.
The twenty-first article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump in
Hospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases Bell
Curve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey,
Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a
Disappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri,
Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the
Midwest and Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K
Americans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected;
Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes
in New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands,
Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress
Continues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital;
AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21
published on 10/4/20.
The twenty-second article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to
Flatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers;
Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases
Including the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,
Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas,
Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including US,
Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland, Czechia,
Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into COVID-19 Hell;
Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely Before the
11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on 10/14/20.
The twenty-third article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/24/20; United States
Reports Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever; America Fails to Flatten the Active
Cases Bell Curve; Nearly 230K Americans Dead; Delusional President Trump Says
Coronavirus is “Going Away”; Worst 28 US States are Wyoming, Alaska, Rhode
Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas,
Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma,
Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana,
Maryland, Iowa and Illinois; US Map Shows Hot Zone States Correlated to
Interstate Highway Routes; Worst Countries are USA, UK, Canada, Mexico,
Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany,
Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Iran and Turkey; Virus Spreading
Rapidly in Europe, Western Asia (Eastern Bloc), Middle East and North America;
US Fiscal Stimulus Kabuki Theater Continues; US Presidential Election Only 10
Days Away; AMERICA EXCEEDS 100,000 NEW CASES PER DAY; Coronavirus Article 23
published on 10/24/20.
The twenty-fourth article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/5/20; America Exceeds118,000 New Cases Per Day Highest Ever; US Hit with Third Wave; Europe UnderLockdown; 39 Nations Including United States in COVID-19 Hell; US PresidentialElection Vote Count Continues with Biden Leading Trump; Johns-Hopkins ReportsAmerica Daily New Cases at 122K Highest Ever; Whitehouse Chief of Staff MeadowsTests Positive; Worldometer Reports America Daily New Cases at 133K HighestEver; Joe Biden Named 46th President of the United States; President TrumpRefuses to Concede; Global Cases Exceed 50 Million; US Cases Exceed 10 Million;Pfizer Vaccine Successful in Human Trial; US Daily New Cases Tragically at 188Kon 11/13/20; Coronavirus Article 24 published on 11/5/20.
The twenty-fifth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/15/20; US Reports 188K
Daily New Cases Highest Ever; 40 US States Report Highest Daily New Cases Ever;
US Coronavirus Cases Top 11 Million and Deaths Exceed 251K; 29 Worst Countries
Include Russia, Ukraine, Indonesia, Turkey, United States, Spain, Italy,
Germany, Austria, Sweden, Hungary, UK, Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea;
Europe and North America in Various Lockdown Stages; Global Coronavirus Cases
Near 55 Million and Deaths Exceed 1.3 Million; President ‘Sore Loser’ Trump
Refuses to Concede to President-Elect Biden Almost 2 Weeks After Election
Threatening the Transition of Power and New US COVID-19 Response Plan; Medical
Staff Shortages; Americans Begin Hoarding Again; CORONAVIRUS 1-YEAR
ANNIVERSARY; US Coronavirus Cases Exceed 12 Million; US Reports 192K Daily New
Cases Highest Ever; US REPORTS OVER 204K DAILY NEW CASES HIGHEST EVER; US
DEATHS EXCEED 260K; US DAILY DEATHS EXCEED 2K; Coronavirus Article 25 published on 11/15/20.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data are tracking each other well in recent
days with the Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a
couple days.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model, forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any
country or region. The peak and flattening of the active cases chart represent
the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors
the Worldometer new cases data for a country or region and identifies the date
of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active
case bell curve will then peak in 1 to 4 weeks later depending on how the virus
situation is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South
Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days also holds for
communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments, such as red China,
since the population has to do what it is told or they receive a bullet in
their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan
are brought under control in this same short time period as the initial wave
(although Japan and South Korea are currently dealing with nasty third wave
outbreaks).
Ireland is the first nation that handled the initial
springtime wave quickly, like others in the 11-day grouping, but currently is
unable to stop the second wave and escalation in active cases; therefore,
Ireland is now in the 28-day grouping like the US.
If the country is not well-prepared, or non-communist, like
the US and many other Western nations, non-authoritarian, the active cases will
peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to
the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when
the pandemic will begin to subside and hopefully decrease; the top of the bell
curve where the strain on the medical systems and personnel is at a peak).
Western nations live more feely and independently so it is difficult to control
a pandemic.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is
important since it represents the maximum stress on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data is key and will increase a couple
weeks after the new cases increase (which makes the days and few weeks ahead
appear ominous) but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain
under doctor’s care with fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the
worst of the virus which creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system. Other semi-recovered patients are sent home
or to other medical facilities, or nursing homes, and not counted in the
hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system. Some
patients continue therapy for months on an out-patient basis and this continues
to require medical staff and supplies.
The crisis America faces in the days ahead into and through
year-end is the dwindling healthcare workforce. Many healthcare workers have
become sick with covid, and many have died. Hospitals are running at capacity
in several states. Lack of beds is one problem but a more important issue is
the lack of medical staff available in America. Hospitals no longer have the
luxury of sending medical personnel to infected regions since the whole United
States map is a hotspot. People are partying on Thanksgiving which will only
lead to ongoing covid Hell through December and January.
The coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the
active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner. The
term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the US
active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases, hospitalizations,
deaths or any other virus charts. It is a shame that the Whitehouse virus task
force, politicians, health officials, media, doctors and scientists cannot
explain these concepts to the general public.
The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for
forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new
case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases
is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date
where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to
project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of
higher high new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping higher (like
now in the US), signals that the virus is getting worse in that region.
Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.
As explained above, the peak new case date for the US is now
11/20/20 rising exponentially. America is in a third wave of the virus, or
third impulse, or third surge, whatever term you prefer. Adding 28 days to 11/20/20
is a target date of 12/18/20 for the US to flatten the active cases curve and
hopefully begin to roll it over lower to create the bell shape. This date is
pushed forward if the new cases keep printing new highs and as explained above,
watch the US daily new cases data for Friday, 11/27/20, since that will tell you
a lot about the pandemics path ahead.
The increase in daily new cases has to stop and level off,
hopefully decrease, as it has been doing the last several days, before there is
any hope that the medical systems and personnel will receive relief about four
weeks in the future. Realistically, US healthcare services will likely have to
be rationed going forward. Doctors may be faced with difficult decisions about
who lives, and who dies, in the weeks ahead.
The US took eight months to go from zero cases per day to 100,000
cases per day and then jumped to 200,000 cases per day only 21 days after the
100K milestone. US hospitalizations are at 88K and remain at record levels for
15 days running.
Doctors and scientists are telling folks to cancel their Thanksgiving
holiday plans and to stay isolated to help tamp down this third wave plaguing
America. That is a difficult sell to people suffering from pandemic fatigue,
starving for human interaction and watching their leaders that tout the rules
not following the guidelines themselves. Unfortunately, by the end of the year,
everyone, not just the poor folks and those of color, will know a family
member, friend, relative, or guy down the street, that has died from covid.
The nations that have weathered the virus waves with
their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are New Zealand, Australia, India (but it
looks shaky), Brazil (but big spike in new cases on 11/11/20 may signal a
second wave starting), Colombia, Peru, South Africa (but new cases starting to
move higher), Chile, Bangladesh (but new cases starting to move higher), Saudi
Arabia, Bolivia, Qatar, Panama (but new cases elevated), Philippines (data is
messy), Oman, Guatemala, China (the bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus
bioweapon), Australia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Singapore, El Salvador, Bahrain,
Ecuador (problematic data), Israel, Iraq, UAE (data is problematic virus is
likely worsening into a third wave), Uzbekistan, Ethiopia (may be trouble
ahead), Nepal, Argentina, Switzerland, Czechia, Armenia, Austria and Morocco.
All the countries listed above are doing better at handling
the pandemic than the nations listed below (based on the data which nations may
or may not be reporting truthfully). Egypt is off the happy list above and sent
to the sad list below as the pyramid nation begins a second wave. Lebanon
looked good for a week but its active cases curve moves higher again so it is
tossed to the list below. Armenia rolled its active cases curve over creating
the bell shape so it is sent to the happy list above. Ditto Austria a bright
spot in the European blackness. Ditto Morocco that guards the mouth of the
Mediterranean Sea.
The 37 worst global hotspots, that have not yet flattened
the active cases curve, are highlighted below. The projected peaks in active
cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems),
based on the Keystone Model, are provided. The nations towards the bottom of
the list are in the worst trouble currently.
Ireland (Second Wave)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever are 4/10, 10/17, 10/18 and 10/20/20)
11/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; the curve keeps moving higher)
Spain (Second Wave) (limited and
changing data hampers analysis)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in late October early November)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited
data hampers analysis)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Belgium
(Second Wave)
10/30/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Portugal (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 11/22/20)
France (Second Wave)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Belize (Second Wave)
11/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
UK (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Italy (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 11/22/20)
Indonesia (Second Wave Starting)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 11/13 and 11/14/20)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; curve moves higher)
Hungary (Second Wave)
11/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Lebanon
11/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases 11/5, 11/6 and 11/18/20)
11/29/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Moldova (Second Wave; the data is flawed)
11/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/29/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Greece (Second Wave)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/30/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Germany (Second Wave)
11/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/12, 11/13, 11/19 and 11/20/20)
12/1/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; may have peaked 11/22/20)
United States (Third Wave)
11/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever at 204K!!!)
12/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
South Korea (Third Wave Underway)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Finland (Second Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever; takes a turn for the worse)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart may have peaked; data is sloppy)
Dominican Republic (Second Wave
Starting)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest since September)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Ukraine (First Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/20 and 11/21/20)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Romania (Second Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in November)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Japan (Third Wave Underway)
11/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases days ever are 8/3/20 and 11/14/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Croatia (Fourth Wave)
11/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/21 and 11/22/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Kazakhstan (Second Wave)
11/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave on 11/19, 11/21 and 11/22/20)
12/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Georgia (Second Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/22 and 11/23/20)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Poland (Third Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Albania (Third Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/20 and 11/23/20)
12/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Canada (Second Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/16, 11/22 and 11/23/20)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Malaysia (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Turkey (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Iran (Third Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Denmark (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases 11/6 and 11/24/20)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Pakistan (Second Wave)
11/24/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
12/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Egypt (Second Wave Starting)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Belarus (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 4/20, 11/22, 11/23 and 11/24/20)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Russia (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/21, 11/22, 11/23 and 11/24/20)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Hong Kong (Third Wave Underway)
11/25/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave)
12/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Mexico (Second Wave)
11/25/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Mexico is in deep trouble now reporting the highest number
of cases ever. Russia is in dire straits. The daily new cases continue higher
so Russia will have problems into the new year. Desperate people may do
desperate things. Jackass Putin announced the Sputnik vaccine so he could be
first, months ago, but the population is collapsing into caskets. Russia’s
vaccine is fantasyland, otherwise, they would not be the worst covid nation
right now.
Ukraine, sitting next to Russia, remains an infected bed of
misery. Ditto Georgia to the south. The eastern Europe, western Asia and
northern Middle East is smacked hard as if there is a strain or mutation of the
virus that is nastier than elsewhere. The countries all line up in a circle; Bulgaria,
Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Hungary, Poland, Belarus, Finland, Sweden, Russia
Georgia, Turkey, Armenia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan. Draw a line from one nation
to the next like a connect-the-dot coloring book and that big red circular splotch
is the most active hot zone in the world.
Interestingly, months ago, there was talk of a mutant virus strain in Kazakhstan but it was only a news story for a few days and disappeared. Perhaps the big red splotch is a nastier mutation of coronavirus? The scientists will have to figure that out.
The Middle East is another hot bed with Egypt, Pakistan,
Iran and Turkey. A third hot spot in the world is North America with the US,
Canada and Mexico swimming in the covid soup. The European outbreak continues
with Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Belgium, Croatia, Greece and Albania the
countries in the thickest fight of the pandemic.
France wants to relax restrictions on businesses and
individuals but Germany wants to stay the course for a couple more weeks.
Germany is in a hair better shape than France. If Germany keeps fighting
through things the next couple weeks, they can defeat the virus and roll that
active cases curve over. France needs to stay the course for two more weeks or
it will likely be a mistake.
Spain and Portugal are emerging from the worst of the latest
outbreak and may help lead Europe out of the covid quagmire. Europe can right
the coronavirus ship if they remain diligent and stick with the restrictions on
human interaction for another two weeks including Germany and France. If they
do not, and people choose to party instead, the virus spread will worsen and the
sick-men of Europe will become sicker.
Asia was faring better than the rest of the world but trouble spots are reappearing. Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, once shining examples on how to
quickly defeat the pandemic, are now mired in third waves. Conditions are
substantially deteriorating in Japan. South Korea releases news as this article
goes to print that daily new cases jump to 500. Conditions in Malaysia worsen after over one thousand employees at Top Glove, the largest rubber glove manufacturer in the world, are stricken with covid. The factories warn of two to three week delays in shipping product which negatively impacts Malaysia’s economy.
Four global central banks have been instrumental in pumping
the world’s stock markets to new record highs over the last 11-1/2 years with
their Keynesian money-printing; Federal Reserve (US), BOJ (Japan) ECB (Europe)
and the PBOC (China). The US, Japan and Europe are mired in covid trouble currently
with their economies teetering. This stuff never has a happy ending.
For America, the worst states for total virus cases, from
highest to lowest, are Texas the worst state, California, then Florida is the
third worst state, followed by Illinois, New York, Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan,
Tennessee, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Indiana, Arizona, Pennsylvania,
Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, Missouri, Minnesota, Alabama, Virginia and Louisiana.
Illinois worsens leapfrogging New York. Ohio moves three places higher on the
list. Wisconsin moves up one slot. Michigan and Pennsylvania each worsen by
three places. Indiana jumps four spots higher on the list.
President Trump addresses the pandemic in the long-term with
vaccines but he forgot about the short-term. Conditions are deteriorating in
the United States. Some Americans are freaking-out again like the springtime
but others are displaying a laissez-faire attitude.
The troubled US states are highlighted below with their
projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on
healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. All 50 US states have failed to
flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to fall back into covid Hell again as new cases and then active
cases rise with new waves.
The worst states are at the bottom of the list since their
new cases are escalating the most in recent days but all of America is in the
same pandemic trouble with new cases hitting record highs. An increase in new
cases lead to higher active cases and hospitalizations which then leads to more
deaths.
Oklahoma
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
South Dakota (Second Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (may have peaked 11/15/20, if so, the data is flawed)
Iowa (Fourth Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Indiana (Third Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Missouri
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Minnesota (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
North Dakota (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (may have peaked 11/10/20, if so, the data is flawed)
Montana (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Alaska (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Florida (Third Wave Underway)
11/15/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave thus far)
12/13/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Tennessee (Second Wave)
11/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Nebraska (Second Wave)
11/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Wisconsin (Second Wave)
11/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/16/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
11/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/16/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
New Mexico (Third Wave)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a
mess and problematic)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 11/13 and 11/19/20)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Arkansas
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/13 and 11/19/20)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Idaho (Second Wave)
11/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Utah (Second Wave)
11/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Michigan (Second Wave)
11/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Vermont (Third Wave)
11/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
New Hampshire (Second Wave)
11/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/19 and 11/20/20)
12/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Delaware (Third Wave)
11/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Massachusetts (Second Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Georgia (Third Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
South Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Maryland (Third Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/19 and 11/21/20)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Kentucky
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/19, 11/20 and 11/21/20)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
West Virginia (Third Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/14, 11/19 and 11/21/20)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Mississippi (Third Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (data is choppy and messy)
Colorado (Third Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/13, 11/19 and 11/21/20)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Hawaii (Second Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since Sept)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Pennsylvania (Second Wave)
11/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever print 11/18 thru 11/22/20)
12/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Louisiana (Third Wave)
11/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever are 7/26, 8/2, 11/13 and 11/22/20)
12/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
North Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
11/22/20 New Case Peak Date
10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
12/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (data is messy)
Oregon (Third Wave)
11/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Connecticut (Second Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Virginia (Second Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Ohio (Fourth Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Kansas (Third Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (data is messy)
Wyoming (Third Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Washington (Third Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
New York (Second Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of second wave)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Maine (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Alabama
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/13 and 11/24/20)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Nevada (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
New Jersey (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Arizona (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases 7/1 and 11/24/20)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
Texas (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
California (Second Wave)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/23 and 11/24/20)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
The four states at the bottom grab your attention. Remember
months ago, when California, Texas, Arizona and New Jersey were at the
epicenter of the pandemic? Ditto New York. Texas and California have over 1
million total virus cases and Florida will cross this threshold in the coming
days. These states are all in trouble again. It is disturbing looking at the
charts. The pandemic is raging out of control while many folks are enjoying
Thanksgiving without a care in the world. In Los Angeles County, California, 1
in every 145 people are infected with covid. The Pentagon reports a strong
uptick in virus cases in the military.
Considering the onslaught of new cases that will be coming
in December due to this holiday weekend, the United States is in deep covid
trouble but few realize it. Dr Fauci, looking tired and worn-out, cautions the
public about a “surge upon surge.” The government and official agencies are
incapable of communicating an organized message and response to the pandemic.
America will be sinking deeply into the covid quagmire during December and
January.
The Dakota’s, a coronavirus nightmare area after the Sturgis
motorcycle rally in August, may be turning the corner with the active cases
curves rolling over lower but there may be a problem with the data. The new
cases cannot be moving higher and remaining elevated while the active cases
chart turns lower; this is not possible.
New York and New Jersey were a major focus earlier in the
year and sadly, conditions are quickly deteriorating in both states. New York
is constructing temporary shelters to service patient overflow from hospitals.
Things are going to get far worse before they get better.
All 50 states remain in covid Hell. The nation as a whole is
testing at about a 10% positivity rate rendering a testing and tracing program
useless. The Asian countries have handled pandemics for decades and the key is
not reinventing the wheel but simply following what they do which is masking,
social distancing and a robust testing, tracking and tracing program. The tests
must be fast with 24-hour turnaround times. The positivity rate must be below
5% for a testing and tracing program to have a chance and preferably below 3%
before it can become effective. Currently, 1 in 10 Americans that are tested
have the virus.
The ‘highest new cases ever’ notations for each state above are
jaw-dropping and proof positive that the Trump administration blew the handling
of the pandemic bigtime. The pandemic is a mess. Trump put all his eggs in the
vaccine basket and walked away from handling the pandemic on a daily basis.
December and January are going to be ugly months. President-Elect Biden appears
to want to take a more hands-on approach in handling the virus in real-time on
the ground so his plan can be implemented on 1/20/21 after the inauguration,
however, the country may be in shambles by then.
For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the
active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days
to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active
cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the
new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that
new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the
active cases peak load. A new wave is identified by a peak in new cases. The
states at the bottom of the US list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare
workers and medical equipment.
Doctors, nurses, medics, emergency personnel and medical
support staffs will be working overtime through the upcoming holidays into
January and February. Be patient with these folks since most of them are
burned-out. It must be extremely frustrating to be bone-tired after another
endless day of helping covid patients, dealing with the human sickness, misery
and death, and then you see folks partying without a care, knowing you will be
treating some of them in a month. What can you do? Humans are narcissistic idiots.
The AMA reports that only 10% of the US population has been
exposed to virus antibodies. This means that a huge chunk of America is
susceptible to catching coronavirus.
The vaccines are coming next year for the huddled masses
which is good news but the rickety bridge to that happy ending is becoming
longer. America should focus on masks, social distancing, testing, tracking and
tracing for future pandemics since there is not enough money available to throw
billions at vaccine development each time. The cost of the pandemic will be a
major problem for the US economy next year. Add it to the growing list of items
that no one is thinking about.
On the economic front, the Dow Jones Industrial Average,
which is the index most-watched by the public (the S&P 500 Index is the US
stock market), tops 30,000. President Trump comically came out of hiding for a
one-minute news conference to brag about the milestone calling it a “sacred”
number. Money must be his religion. King Donnie keeps saying he won the
election but the country has moved on. Sore Loser Donnie is gone in 55 days
when Sleepy Joe Biden takes over as POTUS.
The fiscal stimulus bill remains up in the air. Millions of
Americans cannot pay their bills so the economic problems and hardships will be
stacking-up going forward. Most stimulus programs expire by the end of the
year. The upper middle class and elite privileged class have skated through the
covid mess this year effortlessly but the huddled masses, the lower middle
class, poor, disadvantaged and people of color have been royally screwed. These
folks work the jobs in the industries that are locked down.
If they do work, they are in the jobs at high risk for
exposure to covid such as grocery stores, bars and restaurants. The elite
politicians that control the crony capitalism system in America, that dine on
the finest cuisine and sleep on satin sheets each evening, take their time at
providing fiscal stimulus for poor, disadvantaged and lower middle-class families
in dire straits, many facing eviction. Millions will be evicted from homes and
apartments over the coming months. The class war in America will be a doozy. If
you are wealthy, you best be known for your charity and generosity in the local
area, otherwise, you will have a big red bullseye on your back as the class war
accelerates.
Over 54 million Americans are currently suffering through
food insecurity. At the southwestern Pennsylvania food banks, we see the need
stronger than at any time in recent years. People comment that they never
thought they would ever be in a food line but they are grateful that someone
cares. There is nothing to be ashamed about being in a food line; it can happen
to anyone at any time in their lives. Folks lose their jobs. A family member
can be stricken with a serious illness. Americans must reestablish empathy and
compassion for one another. After all, everyone is headed to the same place in
the end. Seek out and support the local
food bank in your area through donations and/or volunteerism. Knock on an old
person’s door to make sure they are doing okay and see if they need anything.
America requires leadership. America needs a sprit de corps
to defeat the Chinese killer. Who will lead? Who will unite the United States
under one flag and beat back COVID-19? Crickets chirp in the background as the
coronavirus pandemic, the Chinese scourge, spreads across America. President Trump is golfing today.
Note Added 8:30 PM EST: President Trump arrives back from golfing and finally, after 3-1/2 weeks since the election, takes a couple of questions from reporters. Trump says the election is a fraud and he won. He says it will be tough to concede the election. So nothing has changed. More Donnie denial but the country has moved on. Interestingly, however, the pandemic worsens by the hour and Trump remains the man in charge of the mess until 1/20/21. Trump proclaims that he should take the credit for vaccines and decrees that Biden does not et any credit for vaccines. Trump says he pushed those people (vaccine companies) harder than anyone ever pushed. It's funny that Trump wants credit for vaccines since it is like Al Gore claiming he invented the internet back at the turn of the century. Wyoming republican Governor Gordon who is not in favor of mask mandates, and an aid, test positive for coronavirus. The AstraZeneca study and potentially tainted data is under scrutiny. The manufacturer provided half-doses of the vaccine for the trials which is creating confusion. AstraZeneca says another trial is already underway that will provide additional data. Thus, all of Trump's eggs remain in the mRNA basket for months in the future, but the US is under a virus siege right now. What's the plan, Don? Probably a 9 AM tee time again. Trump says vaccines will be distributed to front line workers within a week or two but he is talking out of his butt again; this is not true. Denmark has been culling its mink population after the virus jumped from human to mink. The mink carcasses were buried in shallow graves but some of the bodies are popping back out of the ground causing social media to declare that zombie minks are walking among the living. Government Einstein's have called for the mink carcasses to be buried in deeper graves. Denmark is mired in the pandemic as daily new cases remain elevated and the active cases chart continues higher.
Note Added Friday Morning, 11/27/20, at 4:00 AM EST: Germany crosses the dubious 1 million total cases milestone joining 11 other nations to make an even dozen. Germany reports over 32K new infections in the last 24 hours, a big spike higher, and plans to extend the partial shutdown into 12/20/20. There are now 24 nations with over 500K total coronavirus cases. The United States has over 90K hospitalizations setting records day after day. In New York, covid hospitalizations exceed 3,000. There are over 7K new coronavirus cases in New York in the last 24 hours. Russia reports another record high in new daily cases at 25,487 cases. Dear Lord. Russia is in bad shape but global news sources are not reporting on the misery. Dictator Putin has his hands full as he lives in a protective bubble; the murderer is likely thinking about his own mortality as he battles cancer and Parkinson's. Mexico and Poland also report more daily cases. Russia, Mexico and Poland are worth studying in detail since the pandemic is raging out of control in these countries more than other nations. Perhaps scientists can learn more about the spread of coronavirus by studying these three nations in real-time. Ukraine, Belgium, Hungary and Indonesia also continue reporting elevated new cases which perpetuates the sickness and death well through December into the new year.
Note Added Friday Morning, 11/27/20, at 5:00 AM EST: The AP reports that 27 veterans die and nearly 200 are ill at an Illinois nursing home over the last couple months. Where's Donnie? Where's Bueller? Layoffs are increasing around the United States. Walt Disney cans another 4K workers bringing the total to 32K since the theme parks are closed. Restaurant workers are axed in every state. Travel and hospitality industries are smacked hard. Companies canning workers include Maersk, Warner Media, MGM, Disney, NBC Universal, Cineworld, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Spirit Airlines, Lufthansa, Boeing, Exxon, Shell, Schlumberger, Raytheon, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Allstate, Carnival Cruises, Ralph Lauren, Dell, AT&T, Salesforce, Coca-Cola, and the list goes on and on. The 30 million Americans in the upper middle and wealthy elite classes, that control the rigged crony capitalism system, are not impacted from the pandemic in any significant way. The 300 million huddled masses, however, are crushed many turning to food lines to help with family expenses. The coming class war will be a doozy.
Note Added Friday Evening, 11/27/20: The CDC plans an emergency meeting on 12/1/20 to discuss how the vaccine is distributed and most importantly, who receives the initial doses. In a way, you can say, they are deciding who lives, and who dies. The FDA meets 12/10/20 to provide vaccine approvals. An Axios-Ipsos poll reports that 51% of Americans say they will likely take the vaccine while 48% say it is unlikely. That is not a hopeful number to defeat the virus next year. Scientists want to see 60%, 70% and higher participation in the vaccinations so herd immunity can develop. The CDC say 16% of the US may have been exposed to covid so 84% of the populations remains susceptible to infection. This is similar to the AMA the other day that said about 10% indicate exposure so 90% of the population remains susceptible to coronavirus. Black Friday (one of the busiest shopping days of the year; called 'black' because the big sales typically push most retailers from red ink on their balance sheets to black ink (profitable)) physical shopping is subdued but the online shopping sets records as expected. In the malls, you can roll a bowling ball from one side to the other and never hit anyone. Thus, virus spread may be not much of a worry due to Black Friday but the Thanksgiving holiday weekend fun with families and friends has scientists and doctors worried. A surge upon surge will overwhelm hospitals and that is when the death count jumps higher. Doctors urge folks that did meet in a group to stay home for a couple weeks and to keep the children home from school. Wednesday was the busiest travel day of the pandemic so folks are not listening to what the officials say. Sunday will be another busy travel day. Hospitalizations rise for 16 consecutive days now over 90K. Where's Donnie? Bueller?
Note Added Saturday Morning, 11/28/20: The Global coronavirus cases exceed 62 million with over 1.45 million people dead. There are 13.5 million covid cases in the US with 271K people dead. On 11/25/20, 2,332 US citizens died of coronavirus. Trump was on the golf links that day. The daily new cases for Friday, 11/27/20, are 164K which is actually good news, despite the human misery. Usually the Friday's are the peaks in data and the 164K is well below the peak the week prior at 204K cases. The daily new cases may have peaked. There is more trouble ahead but this sets up the active cases curve to flatten in mid-December when Americans will get another chance to roll the curve over to create the bell shape and defeat the virus. If the daily new cases jump above 204K, we're screwed. The concern is that the numbers are on the low side due to holiday reporting so walking on egg shells is a prudent path ahead to next Friday's data. In another tidbit of positive news, hospitalizations finally stop the 17-day continuous increase to above 90K to below 90K today. The devastation in Russia continues with daily new cases approaching 28K per day. It was a big deal when Ruskie deaths crossed 400 per day two weeks ago but now the Russian people are dropping at a rate of over 500 per day. One in three Russian lawmakers are sick with covid. Russia, Poland and Mexico are the three worst coronavirus hotspots raging in the world. People are dropping like flies.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 11/29/20: Yesterday, cars line up at food banks across America. At the same time, cars line up at the virus testing facilities. It is difficult to judge which line is longer. President Trump went golfing again yesterday showing a complete disinterest in handling the pandemic. If he does mention the virus it is only in the context of vaccines. The pandemic will likely dominate everyone's attention over the next two months. More Americans, especially white folks, say they know someone, or a family member or relative, that has tested positive for covid. Colorado Governor Polis, and his partner, test positive for covid. California cases are increasing at an alarming rate causing officials to impose stricter stay at home orders for Los Angeles residents. Dr Fauci warns again about a "surge superimposed on the surge we are already in" during December. Fauci says, "I don't want to frighten people, except to say it is not too late to do something about this." December and January will be tough months as millions become sick with covid but most Americans are happily whistling past the graveyard more concerned about their materialistic life goals. Russia, Poland and Mexico daily new cases continue ramping higher at a terrible pace. Mexico sets another record of 12,081 daily new cases. These three countries are in bad shape.
Note Added Monday, 11/30/20: Dr Birx, one of the key doctors on the Whitehouse task force, especially after her mentor, Fauci, was muscled out of the picture by King Donnie, briefs Biden's team on the coronavirus. US daily new cases were above 150K from 11/13/20 through 11/27/20 (two weeks time which appeared one month after Labor Day). US daily new cases remain above 100K since 11/4/20; now 26 days running. Hospitalizations are over 93K a new record. Yesterday and the day before Thanksgiving are the two most-traveled days of the pandemic with millions of people milling though airport terminals. Healthcare workers are horrified at the Americans ignoring the covid warnings since they know there will not be any end in sight to their daily toil. Moderna applies for emergency use approval for its mRNA vaccine saying more data proves 94% effectiveness, however, trial data on old folks may be thin. Vietnam reports a virus case the first in a few months. Coronavirus is very contagious and tough to stamp out.
Note Added Tuesday, 12/1/20: An astounding 96K Americans are hospitalized with covid. 21 states set new hospitalization records. Rhode Island is at capacity so field hospitals are being erected. NFL (American football) players are contracting covid at a pace that requires game postponements and perhaps cancellations. The pandemic is a mess. Where's Donnie? Bueller? Donnie? Trump continues hiding in the Lincoln Bedroom tweeting out messages that the 'election is fraudulent' and proclaiming that he 'won an overwhelming victory'. It's pitiful. Even if you voted for the guy, you're glad he lost after the ongoing baby antics for one month running. He's a grown man that cannot accept defeat. Trump becomes more background noise each day but the pandemic rages out of control. Starbucks wants to build goodwill so it offers free coffee for first responders, doctors, nurses, paramedics, cops, and even active military. Keystone dusts off the green scrubs he wore for Halloween, wraps a stethoscope around his neck, and starts off for Elm and 5th Streets to retrieve a free morning coffee. Dr Scott Atlas resigns from the Whitehouse task force. Atlas is controversial a proponent of herd immunity and not as pro-mask as would be expected considering he is a doctor. Fauci and Birx stopped conversing with Atlas since their ideas concerning the path ahead differed greatly. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says the economy is "extraordinarily uncertain" and vaccines are a positive but it is difficult to assess the future impact on the economy. Fauci says vaccines should be available to everyone in four or five months (March-June) and herd immunity may be achieved by summer (this is optimistic talk). A recent study shows 15% of Americans will not take a vaccine. 50% to 70% are open to the idea of taking the vaccine but they want to be sure it is safe. Scientists are analyzing blood samples and discovering virus cases in the 12/13/19 to 12/17/19 time period in the United States so the virus was here much earlier than thought. The first US case was 1/19/20. The South China Post identified the first patient suffering from pneumonia-like symptoms on 11/17/19 which is "Patient 1." The one-year anniversary of the virus just passed and the US one-year milestone is only a month away. The CDC panel meets today to recommend who receives the vaccines first. The healthcare workers and nursing homes are the major focus. This is concerning since some drug trial participants reported covid-type symptoms after receiving the shots. If patients at senior homes are vaccinated, the shot may kill some of them with comorbidities. They may want to rethink the nursing home idea. Congress remains dysfunctional unable to approve a fiscal stimulus plan to help struggling Americans. McConnell shoots down a $900 billion proposal. The wealthy class does not care about the huddled masses; why would they since the pandemic has not hurt them at all?
Note Added Wednesday, 12/2/20: The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is approved for use in the UK the first nation to give the green light. The US is expected to provide approval this month. The UK government is promoting a virus phone app that maintains a vaccine record; it is obvious that places of business and events in the future may choose to not allow entry unless you verify that you had the vaccine. What a sad state of affairs for humanity; the Mark of the Beast is welcomed with open arms by the non-believers. The FTSE (UK stock market) is trading negative hinting that the vaccine happy hype may be priced-in to global stock markets.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 12/2/20: CDC Director Dr Redfield is disturbed by the track of the virus and proclaims, "The reality is December and January and February ae going to be rough times, I actually believe they are going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation. Ahh, largely because of the stress that its going to put on our health care system." Redfield says, "The mortality concerns are real" and "unfortunately before we see February we can be close to 450,000 Americans have died from this virus." He stresses social distancing, masks and limiting crowds and gatherings. The democrats begin rallying around the $900 billion fiscal stimulus proposal capitulating from the couple trillion level. Pelosi must figure the republicans will maintain control of the senate after the 1/5/21 run-off elections in Georgia, so there would be only a smaller package and she would be eating more crow. Pelosi is a shrewd politician. She held back on stimulus, hurting Americans, before the election, because Trump would have won bragging about a stimulus bill. Now she cuts bait to try and get a package done since it looks like all the cards are played and face-up on the table.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 12/2/20: US REPORTS 206,073 DAILY NEW CASES WORST EVER. The new daily cases exceed the 204,166 on 11//20/20. Seeing 200K new virus cases per day is depressing. The US active cases curve above keeps moving vertically higher with no sign of flattening. Since another new daily case high occurs (a higher high in daily new cases or within 8% of the highest number as per the Keystone Model), adding 28 days, projects 12/30/20 as potentially when the active cases curve will flatten. America is in a world of sh*t right now and most of the population appears stupid as to what is going on. President Trump is detached like a king gone mad, hiding in the Whitehouse unless he goes to play golf, continuing to whine about the election loss, proclaiming he was cheated and the voting system is rigged. It's fine that Donnie wants to play games but he should actually perform the job he was sent to do which is handle the pandemic. That is why Trump lost the election; his poor handling of the pandemic. It is not surprising since he is a poor manager as evidenced by the bankrupt casinos years ago. Coronavirus was Trump's Waterloo. Donnie never understood that Americans wanted leadership for the pandemic and even if it worsened to the low point right now which is where it is at, people would respect and support him if he was giving it all he had. Instead, Trump remains detached from handling the virus so those actions come across as an uncaring individual and sunk his standing with the suburban women in the election. Trump had a chance to rise in the face of a tragic global event, the pandemic, and earn a prestigious place in the history books, but he did not. The United States reports 2,833 DEAD AMERICANS THE DEADLIEST DAY OF THE PANDEMIC. Patients in nursing homes are dropping like flies again. About 40% of the pandemic deaths are attributable to senior living facilities. US hospitalizations are over 98K on the way to 100K. Where's Donnie? Bueller? Donnie? President Trump speaks from the Whitehouse complaining about the election and alleging voter fraud, for over one-month running, as the coronavirus pandemic rages out of control.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 12/3/20: Iran crosses the 1 million total cases milestone a tragic level to reach. 14 countries have over 1 million total cases and Peru will be the fifteenth in a few days. Germany extends its partial lockdown into 1/10/21. Chancellor Merkel says the infection rate remains too high. Sweden closes secondary schools. Italy reports 993 deaths the deadliest day ever. The CDC alters its recommended coronavirus guidelines. The ongoing rule is to provide 14 days of quarantine if you are exposed to the virus. Now the CDC says if 10 days go by and there is no sign of symptoms, you are good to go and also if 7 days go by and you test negative, you are ready to cruise the supermarket aisles again. The Los Angeles, California, mayor says it is time to hunker down and cancel everything. California is breaking records for hospitalizations and other data. Several Pennsylvania hospitals in rural areas across the state are quickly approaching or at capacity. People are getting on edge more and more each day. Elective surgeries are getting postponed because the hospital beds and rooms are needed for current and projected future covid patients. Also, folks that suffer heart attacks or sustain injuries requiring immediate attention may have to take a ticket and wait around in the hallway a few hours, or days. If you are planning to have a heart attack after years of smoking, drinking, sitting in a chair each day, and eating doughnuts, try to put if off for four or five months until the coronavirus surge wave finishes. Otherwise, family members may be picking out the casket as the first task of the new year. The CDC projects that as many as 369K Americans may die by 12/27/20. The scientific and medical mathematical models are blowing-up and losing predictive power (the pandemic has gone parabolic). US HOSPITALIZATIONS TOP 100,000.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 12/3/20: Pfizer and BioNTech lay an egg saying goals for vaccine distribution this year will not be achieved. Pfizer says the vaccination program will remain on track for next year which is now only four weeks away. The Pfizer news hits at 3:31 PM EST with a half hour of trading remaining in the day and PFE dives off the cliff collapsing -3% on the news. The SPX collapses from a record high at 3683 down to 3658 and finishes at the infamous 3666. The Dow collapses from a record high at 30111 to 29879 and finishes at 29969 below 30K. President-Elect Sleepy Joe Biden wants the country to use masks to every extent possible during his first 100 days in office typically a period when a new president goes great-guns to kick off the platform agenda positively. Americans may be willing to redouble their efforts and give it the ole college try once again since Biden is a new guy. Sleepy Joe will likely receive one chance to right the coronavirus ship that is stuck on the reef taking on water. It is all well and good to have a 100-day plan but that plan does not begin until President Trump's final 48-day plan plays out first; or lack of plan would be more accurate.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 12/3/20: Hundreds of protesters take to the streets of New York in support of a bar owner that was arrested for not following the state's draconian covid rules. The natives are getting restless. WHO warns that Mexico's pandemic is spinning out of control. Mexico President AMLO (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador) remains defiant about using face masks but tells the population to wear one if it makes them feel safe. Mexico, Russia and Poland are the three worst covid Hell holes on earth right now (the US is headed there).
Note Added Friday Morning, 12/4/20: Malaysia is fighting a PR (public relations) problem in administering vaccine. The vaccines contain animal proteins and other substances that may be forbidden by Islam. The CDC and other health officials have another problem to add to their list since Muslim folks in the United States may express the same concerns. Project Warp Speed says anyone that wants a vaccine will be able to receive it by June. Promises, promises. The entire pandemic mess is nothing but lies, hype and promises. People need help and direction in real-time; now! Folks sense that the pandemic is spinning out of control. Someone needs to be steering the ship but the wheel broke off and Captain Donnie is hiding in the officer's quarters fighting seasickness; he murmurs to the first mate Pence that he won the election. Don's in charge of the pandemic for 47 more days but he ignores the sick and dying instead focusing on claims of election fraud that took place over a month ago. Donnie keeps stirring the voter fraud conspiracy pot so his followers will donate to a fund that will pay legal costs for the court battles. It is actually a slush fund and Donnie can use the money for anything in the future; perhaps his own personal legal fees. Don't you love crony capitalism? Trump can fight the election battle if he chooses, but at the same time, he still has a job for 47 more days so buddy, get to it, help out with the pandemic, show some leadership. Chop chop.
Note Added Friday Evening, 12/4/20: President-Elect Biden speaks and takes questions. Sleepy Joe says the US jobs report is "dire" and verifies a stalling economy and dark winter ahead. Biden supports the $908 billion fiscal stimulus proposal saying it's a start. He has confidence that a stimulus bill will pass because, "The country's going to be in dire, dire, dire straits if they don't." Biden says Congress must "act and act now." Biden smartly says vaccines will not be made mandatory. He knows that the country would explode if Americans are forced to take the vaccine. Biden knows that you catch more bees with honey rather than vinegar. Fauci, Mr Sunshine, proclaims, "We have not yet seen the post-Thanksgiving peak." Fauci does his best to stress masks and social distancing but Americans are going about their daily lives with few paying attention. The IHME Model predicts 539K Americans will be dead by 4/1/21 if the current path is followed. As many as 770K Americans may be dead by 4/1/21 if mask guidelines and other restrictions are eased. The country is in bad shape; between a rock and a hard place. The US is failing economically with businesses shuttered but if the economy is opened the pandemic will spread like wild fire which will damage the economy. China screwed the US bigtime and will have to pay dearly down the road. Pence sounds like an idiot saying, "help is on the way" and "we see light at the end of the tunnel." Pence and Trump have been saying this stupid stuff for months and the pandemic is now the worst ever experiencing an exponential infection rate. They sound like Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber. Trump clearly lost the election due to his inept handling of the pandemic. He gave pharma companies billions of dollars to develop vaccines and then declared the pandemic resolved. Trump had, and has, no interest in handling the tragedy day to day. The virus was Trump's Waterloo.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 12/5/20: Dear Lord. This is tragic. THE UNITED STATES REPORTS 235,272 DAILY NEW CASES ON 12/4/20. It is jaw-dropping. The data is playing catch-up after the holiday but a 235K daily new case number knocks the wind out of you like a punch to the gut. What's worse is the active cases chart is going even more vertical (parabolic) on the spikes in cases the last few days. There is nothing but ugliness, pain and misery ahead for America and people do not understand what is coming at them like a freight train. Where's Donnie? Bueller? Trump continues pumping the election fraud narrative so folks will donate to his slush fund that is at $205 million and growing. The donating dolts do not understand that Donnie can use that money for anything in the future. He will drop the voter fraud charade in a few days and put that money in his back pocket. Isn't crony capitalism fantastic? Well, for the rich it is. It is a crazy time in America's history that is for sure. Over 101K Americans are hospitalized. The US covid deaths are the highest of the pandemic. In the last four days, the following coronavirus deaths are occurring in America; 2,669 dead, 2,873 dead a new record, 2,921 dead a new record, and 2,718 dead yesterday. 11,181 people have died of covid over the last 96 hours. That is 116 COVID-19 deaths every hour; almost 2 deaths per minute. ONE AMERICAN DIES OF COROANVIRUS EVERY 30 SECONDS. That is unacceptable. Where's the president? He likes to brag about records but he is quiet. Who's steering the covid nightmare ship? No one. President-Elect Biden is correctly warning Americans of the dire and dark winter ahead. Will the virus distribute itself faster across the USA than the vaccines? It is looking like that may be a possibility. Stock your inventories of food and supplies immediately and then stay home if you can. The AMA says cardiac arrests due to drug overdoses increased from March through August. Lonely folks shut off due to covid are doing drugs and drinking booze. Some are doing too many drugs and overdosing.
