By K E Stone (Keystone)
China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, spawned at the two
secretive biolaboratories in Wuhan, has infected over 42.5 million people
around the world killing 1.15 million souls. 31.5 million people have recovered
(74%; three-quarters of the people that had covid have recovered; 3 in 4). The CCP
(Chinese Communist Party) unleashes bioterrorism upon the planet.
The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has
attacked and sickened over 8.7 million Americans (2.6% of the 330 million US
population; 1 in every 38 citizens), the highest number of cases in the world,
murdering 229,292 United States citizens; almost 230K dead. That is a lot of
moms and dads, grandmothers and grandfathers, daughters and sons, neighbors,
minorities and disadvantaged folks. 5.7 million Americans have recovered (66%;
two-thirds of Americans that had covid have recovered; 2 of 3). The world has a
better virus recovery percentage than the United States. America is only 4% of
the world’s population but has one-fifth (20.5%) of the coronavirus cases and
one-fifth (19.9%) of the deaths.
China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world while restarting
their economy. The communist nation is getting back to normal while the rest of
the world cleans up the Chinese mess. China owes the world restitution for
releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu bioweapon on the earth’s population.
China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity. 1,150,000
people are dead. Dirtbag Dictator Xi’s sick depraved soul is destined for the
worst levels of Dante’s Inferno.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world at 8.75 million followed by India (7.8 million), Brazil (5.4), Russia
(1.5), Spain (1.1), Argentina (1.07), France (1.04), Colombia (999K), Peru
(883K), Mexico (881K), UK (831K), South Africa (712K), Iran (557K), Chile
(499K), Italy (485K), Iraq (446K), Germany (417K), Bangladesh (396K), Indonesia
(382K), Philippines (368K), Turkey (358K), Saudi Arabia (344K), Ukraine (337K),
Pakistan (327K) and Israel (309K). France, Italy, Germany, Indonesia and Turkey
move higher on the list. Columbia is about to join the 1 million cases club as
the eighth unhappy member.
There is bad news in Europe and America. The United States
daily new cases chart above clearly shows the new record high on 10/23/20 at
81,210 cases; an 8-handle. Will the daily new cases grow to a 9-handle and then
100K per day? WHO says six figures are coming for the new cases. The prior
record high for daily new cases was 79,012 cases on 7/23/20. President Pollyanna Trump continues
proclaiming, “We’re rounding the corner” and the other day saying, “the virus
is going away.” What color is the sky in his world? Yes, the US is rounding the
corner and driving head-on into a Mack truck. The Saturday Night Live (SNL)
television comedy show says Trump has rounded the corner so many times he is
now back to where he was at in March. The 7-day moving average of daily new
cases is ramping higher with no signs of stopping.
The US active cases chart is shown above blowing-out higher.
This is the bell curve chart that needs to flatten to verify that the strain on
the medical system is subsiding rather than increasing. Alas, it is going the
wrong way. Keystone highlighted that fateful day, when the active cases curve
blew out higher, in the 10/10/20 article; Coronavirus (COVID-19) New and ActiveCases Charts; AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Active Cases BellCurve Chart; Highest Active Cases Ever; New Cases Highest Since August.
Two weeks later, the new cases are now blowing-out higher on
10/23/20 as identified in today’s article; Coronavirus (COVID-19) New CasesChart; United States Reports Highest Daily New Virus Cases Ever on 10/23/20.
New record highs in new cases leads to more active cases,
hospitalizations and then deaths; a path of misery. America is in for another
tough slog ahead as the Autumn leaves fall and the cold winter winds blow. Pandemic
fatigue, the wintertime blah’s and people in close contact indoors will
exacerbate the virus gloom and dread which weighs on the economy.
The US is in a third wave. The new peak in new cases on
10/23/20 is used to target the peak in active cases (maximum strain on
healthcare workers and equipment) 28 days hence, as per the Keystone Model, which
is 11/20/20 (America’s next chance to flatten the active cases bell curve
chart).
The key peaks in the new cases data occur on Fridays
probably because of the way the data is reported, gathered and/or tabulated.
Watch the new cases reported for next Friday, 10/30/20 (chart is probably
updated the following morning), since they will tell the story forward. Another
record high in new cases on 10/30/20 would be devastating and mean that America
is descending quickly into covid Hell. A pullback in the new cases on 10//30/20
would be a welcome sight. That 7-day new cases moving average ramping higher is
ugly and hints that the new record cases may not peak-out for at least another
week or two. This would continue to push the target date for the flattening of
the active cases bell curve forward the same amount of time.
The IHME estimates 385K deaths in the United States by
2/1/20 and this assumes states will impose mask-wearing as deaths worsen.
Authorities are quick to remind everyone that if the majority of the population
would wear masks, 100K lives could be saved.
Europe is a coronavirus mess. Italy’s new cases chart is
shown above with a new all-time record high. This chart is the same for the
other European nations such as France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands and the
Eastern Bloc nations such as Poland, Romania, Czechia and Hungary. An
interesting divergence in the data is with deaths. Czechia’s death chart above
is sadly rising like a rocket. This chart is the same for the other Eastern
Bloc nations mentioned. However, the European nations mentioned exhibit only very
slight rises in their death curves nowhere near their sharp spike’s higher
months ago. Europe is better prepared and more knowledgeable on handling the
virus than months ago but the Eastern Bloc nations are overwhelmed.
Sweden’s daily new cases chart is shown above and this
Nordic nation just matched the record high cases from June. Sweden was the
focus of herd immunity discussions months ago and this topic is presented in
more detail below under the list of countries.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes, and more
data and information are available. This is Article 23 in the coronavirus
series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists,
economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall
Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and
politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This twenty-third article is
published on Saturday, 10/24/20.
The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are
the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the
ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic,
the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning. This is
not revisionist history-telling. It is the raw pandemic truth occurring and
recorded in real time.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve
Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing
$700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive
Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes
Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US
DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively);
Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave
Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming
Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus
Article 13 published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US
Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive
Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases
Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave;
European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill;
RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru,
Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave;
Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North
Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware,
Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress
Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States
Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill;
COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on
9/12/20.
The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US
is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling;
10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia,
Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing
Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report
Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland,
Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain,
Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN
Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to
Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction;
WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST
LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on
9/24/20.
The twenty-first article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump inHospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases BellCurve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey,Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin aDisappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri,Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the Midwestand Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214KAmericans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected;Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikesin New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands,Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US CongressContinues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital;AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21
published on 10/4/20.
The twenty-second article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails toFlatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers;Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New CasesIncluding the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin,Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee,Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases IncludingUS, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland,Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking intoCOVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears UnlikelyBefore the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on
10/14/20.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data is about 3 to 5 days ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data,
sometimes more. This is why some of Keystone’s forecasts in the coronavirus series
of articles appear prescient. You will generally know of a trend or direction change
of the coronavirus pandemic here first followed by the mainstream media playing
catch-up a few days later.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model, forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any
country or region. The peak and flattening of the active cases chart represent
the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors
the Worldometer new cases data for a country or region and identifies the date
of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active
case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation
is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South
Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days also holds for
communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments, such as red China,
since the population has to do what it is told or they receive a bullet in
their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan
are brought under control in this same short time period as the initial wave.
If the country is not well-prepared, or non-communist, like
the US and many other Western nations, the active cases will peak 28 days after
the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak
Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will
begin to subside and hopefully decrease). Western nations live more feely so it
is difficult to control a pandemic. Interestingly, Russia President Putin may
be an incompetent dictator since he can force the population to perform his
bidding but the coronavirus pandemic continues spinning out of control. Perhaps
Vlad wants to trim the elderly population since that will be less burden on the
Ruskie government.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is
important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data is key but the active cases curve is
far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with fatigue and other
symptoms after they recover from the worst of the virus which creates an
ongoing demand on the healthcare system.
Other semi-recovered patients are sent home or to other medical
facilities or nursing homes and not counted in the hospitalization data but
they remain a strain on the medical system.
The coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the
active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner. The
term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the US
active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases, hospitalizations,
deaths or any other virus charts.
The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for
forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new
case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases
is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date
where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to
project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of
higher high new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping higher (like
now in the US), signals that the virus is getting worse in that region.
Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.
As explained above, the peak new case date for the US is 10/23/20
taking out the prior record high on 7/24/20. America is in a third wave of the
virus, or third impulse, or third surge, whatever term you prefer. Adding 28
days is a target date of 11/20/20 for the US to flatten the active cases curve
and hopefully begin to roll it over lower.
The United States celebrates Thanksgiving on 11/26/20. Will
America be giving thanks that the virus is subsiding again and the active cases
chart appears to be rolling over, or, will the US be in covid Hell with the
active cases chart continuing higher and panicked people yelling bloody murder
as they witness empty store shelves? The virus is going to be around a while.
Learn to live with it as Trump says.
The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with
their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are India
(problematic data), Brazil, Colombia, Peru, South Africa, Chile, Bangladesh,
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan (but trouble ahead), Bolivia, Qatar, Dominican Republic,
Panama, Kazakhstan, Philippines (data is messy), Egypt, Kuwait (but trouble
ahead), Guatemala, China (the bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus
experiment), Japan, Australia (keep an eye on it), South Korea (but trouble
ahead), Venezuela, Nigeria, Singapore, El Salvador, Bahrain, Ecuador
(problematic data), Israel, Iraq (but trouble ahead), UAE (data is problematic)
and Uzbekistan (problematic data).
Surprisingly, South Korea, that receives accolades for its
handling of the pandemic this year, is probably beginning a third wave of covid
misery. Mexico is now experiencing an uptick in new cases bringing on a second
wave. Coronavirus is a real bastard to beat down. You cannot get rid of it. The
virus keeps coming back. It is like dog sh*t on your shoe; no matter how much
you clean the shoe, you still smell dog sh*t.
Israel snuffed-out coronavirus quickly after imposing strict
stay-at-home guidelines. The
authoritarian, socialist or communist nations can stop the pandemic easier
since the citizenry must obey government without rebuttal (11-day average
between the new cases peak and when the active cases peak) while the Western
nations have a more difficult row to hoe since folks like to question authority
and want to continue socializing and partying (28-day average between the new
cases peak and when the active cases peak).
Sadly, the United States appears on the list below of
troubled countries again after failing to flatten the active cases bell curve
chart after six weeks of hoping and praying. New cases are ramping higher which
creates more active cases, hospitalizations and deaths. There are over 41K Americans
laying in hospital beds today. Healthcare workers grow weary and tired of
listening to the never-ending wheeze of ventilators in the ICU. Mental stress
and holiday loneliness are depression’s best friends.
The 38 worst global hotspots that have not yet flattened the
curve are highlighted in the list below with their projected peaks in active
cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems)
provided. The nations towards the bottom of the list are the worst at handling
the difficult battle against the contagious covid virus. China’s deadly coronavirus
is murdering thousands of innocent souls each day. Soulless Dictator Xi, the
commie, dances with glee, he sees the world at his knees, and a growing domestic
economy, China expands across the Pacific seas.
Oman (Second Wave)
10/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/15/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; may have peaked 10/18/20)
Indonesia
(Second Wave)
10/8/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/5/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 10/12/20)
Belarus (Second Wave)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 4/10 and 10/11/20)
11/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Belize (Second Wave)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases on 8/13, 8/19, 8/29 and 10/13/20)
11/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 10//22/20)
Ethiopia (Fourth Wave)
10/12/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases highest for this wave)
11/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Canada (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever; huge spike higher)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Moldova (Second Wave)
10/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Switzerland (Second Wave)
10/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 10/19 and 10/23/20)
10/30/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Ireland (Second Wave)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 10/17, 10/18 and 10/20/20)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
Finland (Second Wave)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 10/8 and 10/20/20)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 6/24 and 10/21/20)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Nepal (Second Wave)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
UK (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Argentina (Second Wave) (data is
problematic)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Morocco (Fourth Wave)
10/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 10/17, 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Mexico (Second Wave)
10/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 10/17, 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Portugal (Second Wave)
10/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave on 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Turkey (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases highest since 5/6/20)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Iran (Third Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Albania (Third Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Poland (Third Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Croatia (Fourth Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Czechia (Second Far-Larger Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Austria (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Germany (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Greece (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 10/21, 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; data is problematic)
France (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Italy (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Spain (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited
data hampers analysis)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Belgium
(Second Wave)
10/23/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Hungary (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Romania (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
Lebanon (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever during October)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
United States (Third Wave of
Original Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Russia (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Ukraine
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Armenia (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Georgia (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Most of the active cases peaks are
projected to occur in November as the coronavirus stink lingers. Ireland is
imposing stricter measures to try and control the spread. The hospitals are
overrun with sick patients in Czechia. In Poland, President Duda tests positive
joining the list of many other foreign nations with stricken leaders including
the USA (Trump), UK (Johnson), Belgium, Czechia, Poland and others.
Sweden was always in the limelight
in the early months of the pandemic during discussions of herd immunity. Humorously,
Trump referred to herd immunity as herd mentality a couple weeks ago. Sweden
was cheered by folks that oppose face coverings, and other restrictions against
civil liberties and freedoms, for not imposing draconian lockdown rules to stop
the spread of covid. This lack of action by the government was thought to
perhaps bring on herd immunity faster but the Swedes self-limited their behavior
and interaction.
In essence, Sweden imposed the
draconian restrictions on themselves. Sweden disappeared from the spotlight, as
well as talk of herd immunity, which was replaced by vaccine and therapeutics
hype and optimism. Currently, Sweden is in the same soup as Europe with new
cases rising. Reference the chart above. The government now imposes a 50-person
limit in nightclubs and plans other restrictions.
Dr Atlas, that took over the top
doctor spot on the Whitehouse task force, is a proponent of herd immunity but
that is a dangerous path to follow (allowing young people to become sick and
develop immunity). The young are not dying from coronavirus but they can pass
the virus on to older folks. At least it would be one way to cull the senior
population and help maintains solvency with the Social Security system. A herd
immunity approach would likely kill hundreds of thousands or millions of people
over 70 years old and after that mayhem would take place, no one yet knows how
long immunity would last. Pursuing herd immunity may be a stroll down the Primrose
Lane into covid Hell.
Another unknown is the lingering
effects of coronavirus on one’s health. Virus patients experience fatigue and
shortness of breath for months. It’s best to fight the devil you know (the
pandemic now; follow social distance guidelines and use face masks if around
others or in public buildings) than the devil you don’t know (pursuing herd
immunity that would result in excessive deaths among the senior population with
no guarantees that it will snuff-out the virus completely).
The new cases and active cases
charts continue moving higher for the 38 countries listed above. The active
cases charts will not yet roll over to form the bell shape for these nations so
the strain on medical workers and equipment continues (which includes the care
after hospitalizations). Europe, the US, Canada and other northern hemisphere
nations face a ‘dark winter’, as presidential candidate Biden says.
Europe, western Asia, and the Middle
East are in major coronavirus trouble. The major countries sinking into or
stuck in the coronavirus quagmire include the USA, UK, Canada, Ireland, Russia,
Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, Switzerland,
Poland, Czechia, Sweden, Greece, Iran and Turkey.
President Macron says France must
learn to live with the virus until next summer at best. President Trump has
been singing from the same hymn sheet about learning to live with the virus. So
much so that his challenger Biden has come up with a new tag-line mocking Trump
about telling everyone to learn to live with it (the virus). Biden says
instead, “we’re learning to DIE with it!”
A hot spot is the Georgia,
Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Turkey confluence. Coronavirus is spreading rapidly in
that region. Russians are dropping like flies with some daily death counts
hitting near 300 or more people. 296 Ruskies bit the dust yesterday.
Interestingly, the deaths in Italy, France, Spain, etc…, are much lower in
number than the first wave but in Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania the
deaths are far exceeding any prior numbers. Reference the Czechia chart above. There
are over 5K hospitalizations in Czechia with the healthcare system in near
collapse.
The world lacks leadership in
handling the pandemic. Modern-day politicians are weak-kneed and only concerned
with their reelection campaigns rather than performing the people’s business. The
loss of business and destruction to the European and US economies may plunge
the entire world into a global recession and depression not seen in a century;
like the pandemic itself. China’s largest trading partner is Europe and the
roses in the communist nation’s economy may turn to thorns if the rest of the
world goes down the tubes.
For America, the troubled US states
are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve
will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The
worst 17 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are Texas which
just outpaced California as the worst state, then Florida is the third worst
state, followed by New York, Illinois, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona,
New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri and Virginia.
Wisconsin and Missouri are additions to the list. Texas, Illinois, Tennessee,
and Alabama move higher on the list (these states worsen).
The 3 US states that have
successfully created the bell shape on the active cases chart are Florida
(although the 10/22/20 high in new cases hints that a dark second wave cloud is
descending on the Sunshine State), Georgia (but new cases print a one-month
high and rising) and Louisiana; also the District of Columbia (DC). This list
was 15 states 30 days ago, 11 states 20 days ago, 6 states 10 days ago, and now
only 3 states and Florida and Georgia are looking weak. Over the last few days,
Nevada, Hawaii and Vermont fall off the winners list above and join the losers list
below.
The coronavirus situation is obviously
worsening as delusional King Donnie proclaims each day that the US is “turning
the corner,” and coming “around the bend” and stating that the virus is “going
away.” The president is asked what he would do differently in handling the pandemic if he had a mulligan. King Donnie proclaims, "Not much." Trump is the modern-day Nero fiddling while Rome is burning. Is
coronavirus Trump’s Waterloo? We will know the answer in 10 days.
Below is a listing of the 47 states
(this list was 35 states 30 days ago, 39 states 20 days ago, 44 states 10 days
ago, and now 47 states; the virus is obviously worsening) having the most
trouble in dealing with the covid pandemic. America is likely descending into a
panic again like the springtime with the store shelves going bare and people
hunkering-down. This behavior will devastate the US economy especially with the
hope for a fiscal stimulus bill looking dim.
The worst states are at the bottom
of the list since their new cases are escalating the most in recent days but
all the states listed below are in pandemic trouble. The United States is
following Europe into COVID-19 Hell.
Alabama
New Case Peak Date 9/25/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/23/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
South Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20 (data is problematic)
New Hampshire (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20
Virginia (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/5/20
Hawaii (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20
(highest new cases since Sept)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/5/20 (active cases chart is rising)
Connecticut (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/12/20
(highest new cases ever are 4/20, 4/22 and 10/12/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/9/20 (active cases chart is rising)
Missouri
New Case Peak Date 10/15/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/12/20
Michigan
(Second Wave)
New
Case Peak Date 10/15/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 11/14/20
Mississippi
(Third Wave)
New
Case Peak Date 10/15/20 (highest new cases since Jun-Aug)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 11/12/20 (data is problematic)
Minnesota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/16/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/13/20
West Virginia (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/16/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/13/20 (data is problematic)
Maine (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/14/20
(data is messy)
Delaware (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/14/20 (data is problematic)
Nevada (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/17/20
(highest new cases since August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/14/20
Washington (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/19/20
(highest new cases since 8/3/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/16/20
Kansas (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/19/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/16/20 (data is messy and problematic)
New Jersey (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/19/20
(October is highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/16/20
North Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/20/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/17/20
New York (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/21/20
(highest new cases since 5/22/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/18/20
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a mess and problematic)
New Case Peak Date 10/22/20
(highest cases ever on 9/4, 10/16 and 10/22/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/19/20
Iowa (Fourth Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/22/20
(highest new cases ever on 8/28/20 and 10/22/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/19/20 (data is problematic)
Maryland (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/22/20
(October is new case highs for third wave)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/19/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
Indiana (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever 10/9, 10/22 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Nebraska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever 10/16 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Arizona (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20 (data is problematic)
Vermont (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases for this wave on 10/5 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Massachusetts (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
California (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Oregon (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever are 7/26 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Texas (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases since 8/25/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Oklahoma
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
North Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20 (data is problematic)
Tennessee (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever 10/21 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Pennsylvania (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases on 4/24, 4/30 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Ohio (Fourth Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Wisconsin (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever on 10/20 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Arkansas
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Utah (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Colorado (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases 10/22 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Idaho (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases 10/16 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
New Mexico (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever on 10/16, 10/21 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/11/20
Montana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever 10/22 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
South Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Alaska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
Wyoming (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/20/20
That is 47 US States on the sh*t-list.
Pitiful. But go to a Trump rally, where they pass out rose-colored glasses, and
you will see that the virus just went around the corner and is disappearing. At
the presidential debate last Thursday, Trump said a vaccine is only weeks away.
The moderator thought that to be important breaking news and asked for more
details but it was simply the president talking out of his butt again.
Humorously, he said that time frame is not guaranteed but he then quickly said
a vaccine will be approved by year-end, again pulling his comments out of his
orange flabby butt.
The above data clearly shows that
the United States is in trouble again. We are likely only days, if not hours,
away from the population panicking again like the springtime. Stock-up on paper
towels, toilet paper, hand sanitizer, food, canned vegetables, bibles, butter,
ammunition, salsa; you know the drill by now.
Someone needs to tell Trump that hope,
grandiose illusions and wishful thinking is not a strategy to defeat the virus.
This has been the problem all along. 50 states are off in 50 different
directions with King Donnie criticizing missteps but at the same time refusing
to coordinate and organize the pandemic response from a Federal level. The
pandemic is missing leadership on the country and world stage. Americans are
burning out from pandemic fatigue since there isn’t any cohesive uniform
message about what to do, how to protect the family or how to proceed with life
and work.
The worst 28 states, based on new
cases at all-time record highs over the last few days, are Wyoming, Alaska,
Rhode Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah,
Arkansas, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina,
Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska,
Indiana, Maryland, Iowa and Illinois but the other 19 states making up the 47
total are also in bad shape.
The United States map above
displays the 28 worst red zone states and the blue lines show the major
interstate roadways crisscrossing the country. The map is provided courtesy of the Mapchart.net site that has great interactive mapping tools. The map is annotated by Keystone. It is interesting how the states
experiencing the worst outbreaks in recent days correspond directly to the
major interstate road routes. It appears that coronavirus is spread along these
major roadways and it branches out from there. The two main areas where Canada
and the US interact are via Route 15 at the Montana border and via Routes 89
and 93 at the Vermont/New York border with Canada. There may also be
transmission via Route 29 that moves north-south through Fargo, North Dakota.
The East and West Coasts are prime
areas where infected people enter and leave the country. Asymptomatic travelers
land in the major airport hubs of Boston, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Denver, Portland
and Los Angeles, to name a few, and then distribute the disease from there.
Routes 25 and 35 are the major interfaces with Mexico that likely account for a
lot of virus transmission.
Food and other products are
distributed via trucks from the coasts inward towards the Midwest; Routes 40,
70 and 80 are key. Anyone driving late on a Sunday evening on a major
Pennsylvania interstate, or enjoying the scenic PA Turnpike, will see dozens of
semi-tractor trailers hauling produce and other goodies from the East Coast to
the middle states. The railroads travel along the same corridors. There may be
a lot of virus transmission occurring through the movement of goods and
services across the major roadways in the United States. Anyone that has pushed coronavirus worries
aside and is traveling freely is using the interstate road system so it makes
sense that the hot zones would correspond to the regions hosting these major
roadways. This is a fascinating area that warrants more study.
With the US presidential election
at the doorstep, key battleground states such as North Carolina, Arizona,
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio, the path to taking the Whitehouse, are all
descending into covid Hell. This is not a good outcome for President Trump that
wants to avoid talking about the virus.
South Dakota remains mired in the
covid quagmire after the Sturgis motorcycle rally in August. Long live Sturgis!
Tough biker dudes are now laying on the basement floor in the fetal position praying
to the All Mighty that they will recover. Rhode Island was an uppity state
early in the pandemic this year placing restrictions on other neighboring
states as to who may cross the border. Rhode Island did not want any of those
smelly infected people near their clean state but that does not matter anymore
since they are as filthily-infected with covid as everyone else is now. Chicago,
Illinois, begins a curfew between 10 PM and 6 AM when non-essential businesses must
remain closed.
For any state that has not yet
reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new
cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell
curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If
subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are
within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak
date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. A new wave is
identified by a peak in new cases. The states at the bottom of the list will be
the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment.
Doctors, nurses, medics, emergency personnel and medical support staffs will be
working through the upcoming holidays. Virtually hug a caregiver; they may be
the ones caring for you a few weeks from now.
The news flow concerning the virus
is non-stop. The world is swallowed-up by the spreading pandemic. There are 44
vaccines in human trials around the world; 12 in China. Sinovac Biotech’s
CoronaVac is approved for emergency use in China but how do you trust a vaccine
from the filthy communists that released the coronavirus bioweapon upon the
world?
Russia continues boasting about
its Sputnik V vaccine but it is more Ruskie bluster. The vaccine is not a
cure-all and the fine print says it is not for people over 60 years old (then
what good it is?). Russia lashes out at the UK’s vaccine calling it a “monkey”
vaccine. Dictator Putin has not taken the Sputnik V vaccine.
The Pfizer and BioNTech
partnership uses the new mRNA technology and expects results over the next
couple weeks and a decision on its safety and efficacy by the end of November.
The Moderna trials continue and this vaccine also uses the new mRNA technology.
The downside is that two shots will likely be required and if you talk to any
doctor they will say one of the toughest things is to get a patient to come
back for a booster shot. Two shots may be a tough sell to the public. The new messenger RNA technology edits the cells in the body against the virus; this is a scary thought. Can the mRNA perhaps produce a frightening inheritable gene passed to future offspring? Or, is there a risk that the experimental RNA may render some humans sterile. Time will tell.
The AstraZeneca and Oxford
University partnership vaccine was placed on hold after a patient became sick
with a neurologic disorder. The US trials are set to restart. The Johnson &
Johnson vaccine was also placed on hold after a patient became ill but this may
be one of the placebo patients and the trials are set to restart.
The vaccine landscape is not as
positive as months ago. President Trump said that a vaccine would be provided
by Election Day. That’s not going to happen. It was simply more bluster and
made-up stuff from Our Donnie. NIH Director Collins opines that coronavirus can
“be here for years” if people do not have confidence in a vaccine. Collins says
vaccine approval “may not occur this year” although he is “cautiously
optimistic.” Collins says the FDA will likely not approve a vaccine that is
less than 50% effective. His name will be promptly removed from the Whitehouse
Christmas card list.
Therapeutics and treatment
regimens will probably be far more useful in fighting the pandemic for the
weeks and months ahead. A regimen of different drugs including Remdesivir and
steroids helped President Trump recover. The MATH+ Hospital Treatment Protocol
for COVID-19 is gaining popularity but shunned by some aloof practitioners. The
treatment regimen is developed by a consortium of doctors that use FDA-approved
medicines that are cheap and readily available. That’s likely the problem. Big
pharma cannot see a way to making big bucks off such straight forward
treatments and medicines so they have no interest in promoting the protocol. MATH
is an acronym.
The MATH+ protocol is intended for
treatment of hospitalized patients and uses methylprednisolone (steroids),
ascorbic acid (vitamin C), thiamine (vitamin B-1) and heparin (anticoagulant
for blood-clotting). The ‘+’ sign is for additional vitamins and supplements
such as melatonin (sleep), zinc (immune system), vitamin D, atorvastatin
(statin) and famotidine (stomach acid reliever such as Pepcid). The president
was given much of this treatment with a successful outcome. ICU patients have
recovered using the MATH+ protocol. This is great news and requires much more
attention and study. Trump should glean onto and cheerlead this real positive
tangible news instead of making up stupid stuff.
The fiscal stimulus Kabuki theater
has become a joke. Each day, Pelosi and Mnuchin say there is progress but it
sounds more like two politicians trying to run out the clock into the election
and sort out a stimulus plan once the winner is crowned. The lack of stimulus
for common Americans as they watch the wealthy elite play games each day will
only exacerbate the class war beginning in America. Riots and violence are
coming to a city and town near you; and looting. The greedy rich took all the
money in the rigged crony capitalism system and now it’s payback time.
President Trump says, “Testing is
foolish.” The lack of a coordinated coronavirus testing plan across America is
one of the failures of Trump’s handling of the pandemic. The president wants to
slough-off higher positive test numbers by blaming it on more testing this same
stupid argument the last few months. Coronavirus can never be tamed or understood
without lots of test data. Biden tries to contrast himself from Trump by
providing a detailed plan for handling the coronavirus pandemic.
Testing remains a problem since
there are false positives and false negatives. If one of the very detailed
tests are used that picks up every little virus trace, some scientists claim
that as many as 90% of the positive tests may be identifying old and inactive
viruses that are not contagious anymore. The slow turnaround of test results
remains a major problem. If you are notified two days or a week later that you
test positive and need to quarantine, the test is rendered almost useless. That
is too much time to lapse where the virus could be spread. It is incompetence
that all these months can go by and the testing, tracking and tracing program remains
inadequate.
The United States can learn a lot
from other nations especially the Asian countries such as South Korea and
Japan, that have dealt with pandemics over the last three decades. America
needs faster turnarounds for testing, more testing in the poor areas of the
country, and better tracking and tracing. The tracking program breaks down if
the positive test rate is over 5% and the US is above this number now with the
current pandemic increasing. An effective tracking and testing program needs
the test positivity rate to drop to 3% and lower preferably down to 1% where
the tracing program can shine. The US should also employ pool testing where
groups of people are tested with low-cost simple tests and if a positive test
appears, the group can be called back for detailed testing. These tools and
procedures exist but if the guy in charge says all is fine, none of it matters.
Trump proclaims, “We will quickly
end this pandemic.” The president believes he can wave his small hand and the
whole pandemic will go away, “disappear” as he said many months ago. The
pandemic is worsening. Trump uses humans as foils for any political issue but a
disease, that simply does what it wants to do, does not listen or become
distracted by Donnie’s rants. The president’s frustration is palpable as he
continues to try and divert the discussion away from the coronavirus pandemic
but it is impossible for Americans to ignore the 900-pound covid gorilla
sitting on the living room sofa. If
people are thinking about coronavirus in 10 days, Trump is going to lose the
election.
More bad news for the Trump-Pence
ticket. Pence’s chief of staff Marc Short tests positive for coronavirus as
does a political adviser Mary Obst. Pence is the guy running the so-called
coronavirus task force, now looking like a flaming incompetent, as the people
around him are becoming sick with covid. Pence claims that he is tested and not
infected and he refuses to quarantine. Trump and Pence are all-in pretending
the virus does not pose a significant threat; Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber. The
nobility class never follows the same rules that are decreed upon the huddled
masses. Obst and Pence were photographed not wearing masks at the first presidential
debate two weeks ago. The incubation period for coronavirus is from 2 to 14
days.
The negative virus news each day
punches another hole in the Donnie Trump reelection boat that is taking on
water. The president is unable to shift the discussion away from the virus and
the Pence news will dominate Sunday’s news cycle. Pence is frantically trying
to bail-out the water from the Trump reelection boat using a Maxwell House
coffee can, that has ‘vaccine’ written on the side, but the water keeps rising.
Trump is in a heck of a pickle with the election only days away. The virus
pandemic is worsening as the president holds multiple rallies each day telling
his fan base that all is fine. It is bazaar. Trump will look clueless and
out-of-touch in a week if the current trajectory continues.
During the Iraq War, Baghdad Bob
would tell the Iranians that the troops are holding back the American soldiers
valiantly—as you see US tanks moving through the video in the background.
Baghdad Donnie tells America that the virus is “going away” and the “pandemic
is ending” while behind him exhausted healthcare workers push sheet-covered
bodies to the morgue; 230,000 of them.
Note Added Sunday, 10/25/20: Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows says, "We (USA) are not going to control the virus." Dear Lord. That is a disturbing statement. Trump has all his eggs in the vaccine basket; that has been his entire plan this year which is a very poor strategy. Michigan’s new
cases explode higher. The Great Lakes State had its fun at campaign rallies and
other events as well as part of the population proudly displaying their
defiance of mask-wearing. Now they must pay the price. The Michigan new cases
chart is added to the others above. There are nearly 3.5K new cases in Michigan
on 10/24/20. Trump plans rallies in Michigan before the election so that will be interesting as the covid cases ramp higher. There are now four Pence aids that are sick with covid but a defiant Mikey is going forward with a rally in North Carolina today. The election means more to these people than the huddled masses' health. If Pence tests positive over the next day or two it would be devastating to Trump's reelection hopes. North Carolina is a must-win for Trump. If he loses this state, the election results will quickly go south for Donnie. If Trump wins North Carolina, he has a chance to emerge victorious like 2016. This is why Pence hides his cough and high temperature and jumps on an airplane headed south.
Note Added Sunday, 10/25/20, at 2:00PM EST: Tennessee is imposing mask-wearing guidelines as cases rise. El Paso, Texas, is encouraging people to stay at home for the next two weeks. The El Paso hospital system is at 100% capacity. New Jersey citizens are receiving robo-calls warning of an increase in infections and instructing people on mask-wearing, social distancing and hand washing guidelines. A fifth person associated with Pence tests positive with covid. That is developing into a mess. Every few hours, another person becomes infected in Pence's orbit but these are supposed to be the smart people watching out for Americans. Good luck to everyone. Former FDA commissioner Dr Scott Gottlieb warns Americans that we are now at "dangerous tipping point" over the next two weeks. Gottlieb also says, "The US is on the cusp of an exponential spread." RBI (Reserve Bank of India; India's central bank) Governor Shaktikanta Das tests positive for coronavirus. Pelosi and Mnuchin are pointing fingers at each other playing baby political games with the fiscal stimulus bill. Each accuses the other of moving the goal posts. US futures begin trading and indicate a drop of about -0.6% for the major stock indexes on Monday. Markets are becoming nervous due to the lack of US fiscal stimulus and watching the spread of coronavirus across Europe and North America.
Note Added Monday, 10/26/20: Spain imposes a national curfew from 11 PM to 6 AM. Italy is limiting bar and restaurant hours and imposing other restrictions to try and stop the coronavirus outbreak. Social unrest is rising across Europe as citizens do not want lockdowns. European and US futures are trading lower. Wall Street is headed for losses of about -0.8% when the stock market opens unless happy stimulus or vaccine talk occurs. Wall Street crumbles on lack of a fiscal stimulus deal and the developing fear that the virus is spreading again. The S&P 500 drops -2%. The Dow plummets -2.3%. The tech stocks in the Nasdaq Index drop -1.6%. Germany's DAX Index drops nearly -4%. The view across the pond does not look good as the virus spreads.
Note Added Tuesday, 10/27/20: As covid spreads across Europe, northern Italy explodes in protests; a lockdown revolt. Spaniards are also suffering pandemic fatigue. Citizens followed the rules these many months but now coronavirus is spreading like wildfire again. The riots and social unrest will be coming to the United States as folks realize the virus trouble is expanding. Lockdown revolts will enable mobs of people to throw bricks through windows and loot. The wealthy elite raped the United States for all its worth over the last five decades so now the huddled masses want some, too. Keystone's cousin's father Joe, 88 years young, passes away from covid. The cousin became ill with coronavirus as well but recovered. The virus hits everyone be it white, black, yellow, brown, green or purple. Poor ole Joe did not receive the same treatment as King Trump. The IHME estimates that 485K people will be dead from covid by 2/1/21 if mask and social distancing guidelines are relaxed. That is double the current death count at 231K dead. The IHME says the current pace will result in 385K total dead by 2/1/21. The number can be lowered to 323K if everyone wore a mask, according to the IHME. The Eli Lilly antibody trial will end as the treatment does not help hospitalized patients. The AstaZeneca vaccine news is more hopeful with the treatment creating an immune response in older people. German Chancellor Merkel calls for a "lockdown-light." Coronavirus hits the republican-leaning FoxNews network with several people in quarantine after attending the presidential debate last Thursday including Jay Wallace, Bret Baier, Martha MacCallum, Juan Williams (liberal) and Dana Perino. It is unknown who tested positive. FoxNews walks a fine line following the mask-wearing and social distancing guidelines as company policy but at the same time downplaying the same rules on air in news stories. Trump is conducting rallies trying to drum up enthusiasm for the election. Over one-half of the voting public have already voted especially young people. The president continues downplaying the virus which is fascinating to watch each day into the election only one week away (next Tuesday, 11/3/20). As coronavirus spreads across the US in the coming days, while Donnie insists that the virus is rounding the corner and going away, one of them is going to be proven wrong; and the virus is not going away anytime soon.
Note Added Friday, 10/30/20: The daily countdown to the presidential election continues with only four days remaining until Tuesday, 11/3/20. President Trump's strategy is to get out a big vote from republicans on Tuesday that will show him leading multiple states in the early election returns at 8 PM EST and 9 PM EST. Trump will declare himself victorious but as the mail-in votes are counted, each state will slip into the Biden camp that will go on to win the Electoral College after all the votes are counted. Trump will declare that he was screwed and will leave the Whitehouse but can then use the scenario as his hook for a new Hollywood reality television show where he will remain in the limelight. Donnie will always place himself first. Sleepy Joe Biden's strategy is to run out the clock, hope the polls are correct and stress "covid, covid, covid," as Trump quipped at a recent rally, every 10 minutes. The women out vote the men about 55% to 45% so the women choose the winner. In 2016, the ladies went with Trump. This time around, the backdrop is not rosy for Donnie; the majority of women back Biden so this may be the easiest tell of who will win on Tuesday. If Biden wins, there will likely not be much social unrest. If Trump wins, the country will likely explode in violence since that will serve as a smoke screen to loot and get free stuff. Biden would need a decisive win on Tuesday night to shut-down the Trump scenario of the president leading on Tuesday night only to become overrun by mail-in votes in the following day/s. If Trump is leading in the early state vote tallies in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, there will be trouble ahead. About 80 million Americans have voted already which is unprecedented several states are exceeding all the votes cast in the 2016 election. The stimulus bill saga lingers with Pelosi and Mnuchin blaming the other for inaction. Europe descends into coronavirus Hell. France is imposing a lockdown. Ditto Germany. The lockdowns are milder than in the spring. Governments are having difficulty balancing the economy against the pandemic. Chancellor Merkel voices concern that the infection numbers are climbing to where they expected two months from now. Switzerland hospitals are running at capacity and the government is considering lockdown measures to try and alleviate the strain on the healthcare system. ECB President Lagarde promises more stimulus in December. The central bankers are the market for the last 11 years. The US stock market is selling off this week on coronavirus fears and the lack of fiscal stimulus. The S&P 500 Index, the US stock market, is down -4.5% this week thus far and futures are off -2% this Friday morning. Tech giants such as Facebook, Apple adn Amazon are selling off after earnings reports. Alphabet (Google) rallies. The Dow pukes -6.0% thus far this week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index is down -3.1%. The US annualized GDP is above +33% a record high due to the springtime monetary and fiscal stimulus offerings and rise off the miniscule March bottom. Republican sycophant's supporting President Trump are touting Becker's Hospital Review data showing small numbers of covid patients in hospitals across the United States. In most cases, covid patients are taking up about 7% of the hospital capacity. The dirty secret is that most hospitals operate at 98.5% capacity as a rule since this is maximum efficiency that creates maximum profit. Thus, a 7% add of coronavirus patients may not seem like a lot but you can understand how the hospitals are at capacity and scrounging for beds, or even building make-shift medical facilities which is occurring in Texas and Wisconsin. Democrat Wisconsin Governor Evers tells citizens to stay at home as the hospitals are overrun but here comes Donnie for a campaign stop creating another superspreader event. The stuff is surreal. America has become a carnival of silliness into the election. Everything is entertainment like the bread and circus days of ancient Rome. The craziness continues. US DAILY NEW CASES JUMP TO 91,530 CASES. Oh my. That is the highest number ever and it is not even Friday data which has been all the high prints over the last few months. The US is on its way to 100K new COVID-19 cases per day, which will be a sad, sad day. King Trump says all is well, covid is not a problem, and people cheer.
Note Added Friday, 10/30/20: The political and pandemic theater of the absurd becomes more bazaar each day. President Trump now openly claims that the only reason new virus cases are increasing is because of more testing a stupid argument. The Whitehouse testing czar, Brett Giroir, a pediatrician, states unequivocally that the surge in cases is not solely a function of more testing. Giroir says, "Hospitalizations and deaths do not lie." The president's son, Donald Trump, Jr, is parading across the republican airwaves touting his dad's message proclaiming that coronavirus deaths are "almost nothing." To a rich kid, a thousand people dying per day is no big deal; they are the great unwashed. The president decrees, "Our doctors get more money if someone dies of covid." Trump realizes the non-stop virus news coverage hurts his reelection prospects so he continues to downplay the situation now insulting and accusing doctors of inflating coronavirus numbers. The healthcare workers, nurses and doctors take offense to Trump's comments. Trump continues to say, "we are rounding the corner," and "rounding the bend" and the "virus is going away" regardless of whether we have vaccines or not. The president simply stands on stage and riffs, making stuff up as he talks. It's hilarious, although tragic. Trump says the stuff with a straight face and the republican fan base cheer the end of the coronavirus (which is actually spreading and worsening with a third wave across America and a second wave in Europe). Strange times. Sleepy Joe Biden the democrat candidate for president that wants Trump's job, keeps hammering away with covid talk and since Trump's mishandling of the pandemic (all the coronavirus statistics are at record levels or headed there such as new cases, active cases, hospitalizations, deaths, etc.., so obviously the virus was never contained this year; leadership failed at all levels). Biden pokes his head up out of the basement and proclaims, "Trump has simply given up on covid." Sleepy Joe takes another swig of Geratol, washing it down with black coffee, and decrees, "Trump's response (to the coronavirus) is utterly disqualifying." A record 86 million Americans have already voted early in the 11/3/20 US presidential election; that is stunning. Over 60% of the voting public has already sent in or dropped-off ballots most are likely concerned about contracting coronavirus. Dr Gottlieb says, "We are at the beginning of the steep part of the epidemic. You'll see cases start to accelerate into the coming weeks, I think the inflection point really is going to be Thanksgiving." Gottlieb looks for daily new cases to tag 100K in the US in the days ahead. The sad day is here. According to the Worldometer Coronavirus data, the United States reports 101,461 new coronavirus cases on Friday, 10/30/20. It is a sad day in American history. DAILY NEW VIRUS CASES TOP 100K PER DAY. 14 US states report the highest ever hospital virus cases. Trump does not want American voters to believe the coronavirus numbers since they verify his mishandling of the pandemic. Do you believe Donnie or your lyin' eyes?
Note Added Sunday, 11/1/20: Dr Fauci warns that America is in for a "whole lot of hurt." President Trump says Fauci is political and wants to hurt his reelection. At a Trump campaign rally, the blood-thirsty crowd chants, "Fire Fauci." Trump hints that he may do that after the election (he actually cannot; the HHS department would have to fire him but Trump could pressure HHS). A Stanford University study found that over 30K coronavirus cases and 700 deaths can be traced back to 18 Trump rallies. Typhoid Trump's rallies are superspreader events. UK Prime Minister Johnson announces a stay-at-home order reversing his prior pledges to avoid lockdowns. Germany is in a partial shutdown. Austria, Portugal and other European nations are imposing lockdown measures. Virus test positivity rates are exceeding 20% in some countries. Oh my. That is 1 confirmed infected patient out of every 5 tested. New York is imposing stricter testing rules for those entering the state. Oil prices fall to a 5-month low hinting that global recession/depression is on its way. America is focused on the drama surrounding the presidential election on Tuesday.
