VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The VIX 200-day MA at 16.82 is a key bull-bear line in the sand. In addition, Keybot the Quant algo identifies 14.78 as a key bull-bear level. The VIX ended yesterday at 14.75 a touch on the bull side ready to take the stock market higher. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST this morning and launches above 15.80 with the S&P futures tanking -19. As this is typed less than 4 hours in front of the opening bell for the US regular trading session, the VIX is up to 16.52 with the spoo's down -29. Traders are in a bad mood. It's getting uglier as the morning proceeds. President Trump will have to run to Twitter with happy trade talk to save the day.

If VIX drops below 14.78, the bulls rule the stock market. If VIX is between 14.78 and 16.82 (VIX is now at 16.52), the stock market will chop sideways with a downward bias. If VIX moves above 16.82, the wheels will fall off the stock market with equities falling like stones.

Despite the negativity this morning with the S&P perhaps losing 25 or 30 handles at the opening bell, it means nothing unless the VIX moves above 16.82; this will signal trouble. If stocks sell off as trading begins, but the VIX is not above 16.82, stocks will recover. Typically, the stock market is bullish the two days in front of a three-day holiday weekend. US trading is closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. Professional traders may be willingly to buy the lows at the opening bell and hold into the weekend if the VIX does not move above 16.82. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Overnight

Note Added 6:33 AM EST: The VIX is at 16.58 with the S&P's down -28. The bears need another 24 pennies higher in the VIX to prove they have the beans to take stocks lower.

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/24/19, at 9:15 AM EST: The VIX jumps above 16.82 and there was H*ll to pay. Overnight, the VIX drops to 15.96 back below the 200-day MA so the bulls flex their muscles with S&P futures up +19. The sideways choppy slop, responding to news bites on trade or from central bankers, continues.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/25/19: The VIX finishes the week at 15.85. Very simply, the bears prove that they have the power to take the stock market lower if the VIX pops above 16.87 and remains above. The bulls prove that they have the beans to take stocks higher if the VIX drops and remains below 14.80. In between, like the Friday session, is more sideways choppy slop and noise.