TSLA Tesla Weekly Chart; Tweezer Top; Bear Market

Tesla drives into a ditch. A Tesla is filmed in a parking garage smoldering then bursting into flames. There are accidents occurring due to the autonomous software. Batteries may explode during accidents. There are few charging stations available for electric cars but there is a gas station on every corner. Future demand for electric cars is questionable. Interestingly, one-half of all electric vehicles sold are in California, the land of fruits and nuts. The competition is ramping up in the electric vehicle market; would you rather drive a BMW or a Tesla? There are quality complaints stacking up against Tesla including door handles that fall off and panels that are not lined up perfectly. The jury is out on the cost and hassle of replacing batteries as the cars age. It is difficult to find skilled technicians to handle the maintenance and service for Tesla cars. And, the cars are not cheap. Other than all that, things are going swimmingly for flamboyant CEO Elon Musk.

Billionaire investor Ron Baron worships at Musk's altar each morning throwing millions of dollars into the Tesla money pit. Baron proclaims Tesla as the Second Coming and best thing since sliced bread and the invention of the wheel itself. Baron is losing his shirt.

TSLA topped out over the last 18 months with the negative divergence (red lines) Keystone highlighted last year. The overbot conditions conspire with the neggie d to smack price lower. The brown circle shows the Tweezer Top that was the last chance to get out. There wasn't any gas, er electricity, left in the tank, so Tesla broke down on the side of the road. Price drops from 382 to 195 basically cutting it directly in half since late last year. Unfortunately, for TSLA, Musk the Magician likely has no chance of putting it back whole.

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's and 2's to 8's so a failure at 220 opens the door to 180. During this -50% crash in 6 months (TSLA is in a bear market down in excess of -20%), a couple of big gap-down weeks occur so price may want to make its way back up to there at some point to fill those gaps (orange circles).

Price is making lower lows and comes down to tap on the 195, the top of that horizontal blue channel at 180-195. This is a congestion zone from 2016 and may attract price like a magnet. This is the battleground from which TSLA may decide to bounce, or die. With the current lower lows in TSLA, the stochastcs and money flow are positively diverged, and the stoch's are oversold, wanting to see price bounce.

However, the RSI and MACD line remain weak and bleak wanting more lows in price so the blue channel may be Tesla's destiny. If price bounces for a week due to the possie d, then rolls over for a week due to the negative-sloping RSI, then bounces another week, then down again because of the weak MACD line, then chop a week or two, that will likely be the bottom on this weekly basis; say, in 3 to 6 weeks. That would be mid-June into July 4th for the potential bottom for TSLA on the weekly chart.

The ADX was in a strong uptrend in 2017 but that petered out about mid-year. The sideways choppiness in price during 2014-2016 and 2018 are verified by the low ADX readings. There is no strong trend; price is simply chopping sideways. The ADX is climbing again and with another 4 or 5 points will identify the collapse in TSLA stock as a strong downtrend. For now, it is not. The Aroon red line is pegged at the maximum 100 reading so a mean reversion lower is the only direction it can go which correlates to some price buoyancy.

Thus, TSLA will likely move sideways to sideways lower for the next month or so, perhaps teasing into that 180-195 congestion zone where the men will be separated form the boys. TSLA should bounce from there and likely regain 2 hundo and perhaps target those gap-fills at 210 and 236-ish. So during the summer, that cat Musk may receive another life as a multiple week rally occurs.

The rally in say, Late June, July perhaps into August, however, will not have staying power and should probably be used as an exit for anyone that holds the stock. The TSLA monthly chart shows a weak and bleak RSI, MACD, histogram and stochastics although the stoch's are oversold. On a monthly basis, the stock remains sick and would be expected to print lower lows. The oversold stochastics on the monthly will conspire with the possie d on the weekly chart above to give a bit of buoyancy to the flailing stocks over the next month. TSLA will likely finish the year in the 150-190 range. Musk better hope it does not get worse than this.

Keystone has no position in TSLA and will likely not play it. If so, it would probably be a no-touch for 2 to 4 weeks, then bring on a long position at that point. Sell that in July after price recovers then turn around and flip that trade short since the monthly chart will re-exert itself into year end. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/23/19, at 6:35 AM EST: TSLA was smacked -6% lower on hump day to 192.73 and in this morning's (Thursday) pre-market collapses another -4% to 185. Musk is likely on the phone asking Baron for more dough.

Note Added Monday, Memorial Day, 5/27/19: Ark Investment strategist Cathie Wood is defending her call that TSLA stock will hit $4,000. Whatever she's smokin' she should pass it around to everyone else.