Mortgage Applications are down continuing the downtrend for the last couple months. Futures were buoyant before the ADP Jobs number but at 158K, below the 200K expected, the futures are flat going into the opening bell. ISM Non-Manufacturing is released at 10 AM but it is typically not that great of a market mover. The ISM on Monday, the first day of each month, is far more important. Nonetheless, markets may take a stutter step move at 10 AM. Oil Inventories are released at 10:30 AM. MON earnings and guidance are upbeat. MON is up pre-market but CAG is down. Markets are in wait and see mode as the BOJ meets today and the central bankers are front and center over the next 24 hours with the BOJ, BOE and ECB on tap.
Credit Suisse downgrades gold, silver and copper, as well as miners, so this is the pile-on effect to beat these already beaten-down sectors. The bulls need to see SOX 425 and today will be blue skies. The bears need VIX 14.50 to establish steady market selling. For the SPX starting at 1570, the bulls need to touch 1574 and the all-time closing high at 1576.09 will fold like a cheap suit with the SPX heading to the high 1570's. The bears need to push below 1562 to accelerate the downside. If the SPX loses 1562, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip to the short side. A move through 1563-1573 is sideways action today. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart so the bulls are driving the bus. Watch the 8/34 cross closely since the 8 MA has curled over to the downside. If the SPX stays under 1570 and lower that will drag the 8 MA lower to produce bearish markets. Bulls need to move the SPX above 1570 and the day will start to go their way. Bears only need eight negative SPX points to take control of the markets. Did the bears eat their Wheaties this morning?
Note Added 4/3/13 at 12:02 PM: Semi's (SOX) have broken down today. VIX hanging in there for the bulls which is currently preventing serious market failure. Watch SOX 425 and VIX 14.50. XLF 17.80 is now on the radar as well and it will create serious market selling. Keybot the Quant flipped short a short time ago at SPX 1562. We will see if a whipsaw occurs this time, or not. The algorithm move is different this time since it was caused by semiconductors and not the wild fickle swings of volatility, so the weak semiconductors may have ushered in extended market weakness today. The 8 MA stabbed down through the 34 MA at 11 AM on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead.
KS, SPX is under 1562, how long will it need to stay under to matter? Recovery efforts are already underway, it seems. VIX is 13.44, starting to move higher.... maybe a punky jobs report on Friday could push this over the cliff.
ReplyDeleteIt seems bears have given up hope of a downturn.
No Charles, on Friday I think the jobs report will be great. In the past ADP reports and official reports on that matter registered divergences.
DeleteI think that today shorting move doesn't have continuity , it's just a way to clean divergences ... who on Earth would think that they will let this rigged market fall without a new-all time high closing ???
I feel some whipsaw in the air .... and remain constant with my shorting target on spx 500 (futures) 1570.20-1580.64 , maybe higher.
V.
Charles, Keybot is on the short side again, we will see over the next couple days. It is different this time since the prior whipsaws were caused by wild moves in the VIX, but this time, the SOX, semiconductors, have broken down. Thus, the bears have a chance this time. If the SOX stays under 425 then the broad markets should remain weak moving forward. If the VIX can move above 14.50 that would add serious downside fuel, ditto XLF 17.80.
ReplyDelete(Bears need VIX over 14.50 and XLF under 17.80 to create market mayhem)
DeleteSOX may be a game-changer V. Whoa, SOX is now sporting a 419 handle, from 437 to 419, -4.1%, in less than three days. If a global economy does not need chips, that is a sign that there is nothing going in the way of a recovery.
ReplyDeletei know SOX is important.
Deleteanyway, i'll see how this market develops.
... not even a back-kiss to pivot-resistance 1576 on spx 500 !!! ... this is suspect for me, for sure!
V.