The SPX drops to a LOD of 1426.62; watch this level closely. Price favors the 1429 S/R level currently. The RTH dropped to 44.50 and bounced. The retail sector is under pressure. Watch RTH 44.44 as a bull-bear line in the sand. If RTH 44.44 fials today, the markets will take a strong leg lower. Financials are pulling back as well with the XLF at 16.36. The Nasdaq (tech) is leading the downside at -1.4% followed by the RUT (small caps) and SPX (broad market) at -1% and the Dow Industrials down -0.9%.
The TRIN spiked to 17 and is now at 3 showing significant selling pressure. Likewise, the NYAD printed at -2000 and lower. The TICK is well-behaved today showing no excessive moves in the markets despite the spike higher in the TRIN showing excessive bearishness. Speaker Boehner is speaking right now. He says the president and Senate must lead the way forward. The SPX is moving flat thru 1427-1429. The VIX spiked to 20 but is now at 19.37. WTIC oil is 88 and Brent is 109. The 10-year yield is 1.74%. The euro is 1.3175.
Note Added 12/21/12 at 10:11 AM: Speaker Boehner finishes his talk with a Merry Christmas wish for all. The markets did not pivot as expected, the sharp waterfall drop at the open dampens the affects at 10 AM. The SPX LOD at 1426.62 is holding. RTH 44.44 is holding.
Note Added 12/21/12 at 11:11 AM: The SPX punched out a new low under 1426.62, albeit by pennies. SPX LOD 1426.40. The SPX 2-hour, one-hour and 30-minute charts show weak and bleak indicators (RSI, stochastics, etc...) that likely want to see lower numbers for price moving forward thru the afternoon. RTH is 44.68. VIX is 18.92.
Note Added 12/21/12 at 1:02 PM: The SPX drifts lower today now thru a sideways channel range at 1422-1427. Note that the closing high in May 2008 for the year that year was 1426.63. The SPX is treating this value seriously today, and is fighting there right now. SPX S/R is 1429, 1426.63, 1424, 1422, 1420.93 (20-week MA), 1419.81 (20-day MA), 1419.11 (100-day MA), 1419, 1418.22 (200 EMA on 30-min), and 1416. Remember, 1418.22 is key. The RTH is 44.57 only pennies away from the critical 44.44 bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls must keep the RTH above 44.44, if not, the SPX will drop thru 1418.22 and the markets will chart a negative course forward.
Note Added 12/21/12 at 1:23 PM: Keystone's SPX:VIX Ratio Indicator is at 75.89 but printed under 73 this morning. This is a turn signal where 68 is the danger level which will signal far more negative markets moving forward should it fail. RTH 44.53.... 44.52 ...
what a f-ing circus. One doesn't pay attention for one day and the whole market turns pretty much 180 degrees thanks to our clowns in washington... a market run by politicians, which it is these days/years, is one destined to be destroyed...
ReplyDeleteso there went my longs... and keybot actually flipped short yday I now see. Man I wish I'd sold in the close...
All hope for the bulls ain't lost, but only if I can't count 5 waves down and 3 waves up. If it is that will mean we'll see the low 1300s before we see the low 1500s...
Mr Market screwed pretty much bears and bulls alike with yesterdays and todays action... NEVER a dull moment
Not if you were paying attention to this blog yesterday. VIX rising sharply with equities. Easy red flag.
Deleteps: watch the 150min sma and 200min sma on the 30min chart keys. They've held as support since the Nov low, and price is now flirting with both (1426, 1422 respectfully)
ReplyDeleteYep, the 200 MA on the 30-minute is a very attractive S/R gauge. It's at 1422.89 right now.
DeleteWe seem to have slipped a bit today ;-) I think the bottom point of the "flash crash" is instructive...but I'm off to Hawaii to hang out by the Serenity Pool for a few weeks. I'll check with ya'll next month.
ReplyDeleteThat is excellent, you get lei'd in Hawaii, as the ole joke goes. That is correct about that 1391 futures low. Cash probably wants to venture there maybe next week if not today.
DeleteHappy Christmas, Zig. Here's where Obama will be in case you want to look him up:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.examiner.com/article/kailua-hawaii-welcomes-barack-obama-5th-year-vacation
Tell him to come back at around 1340ES.
LOL He might decide not to come back...
ReplyDeleteI forgot to add Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of you, my fellow market watchers. There are many things more important than making a buck, and I'm going to contemplate them all this season.
Funny stuff. It's all a circus.
ReplyDeletethe days of markets reacting on economic fundamentals, earnings, profits, bottom lines are long gone. they've become indeed a circus. but we all know, all circus acts come to an end one day, and the circus will leave town. then the town square will be quiet and empty... when will that happen...
Deleteremember that according to the mayan calendar today the world will "end" (i.e. shift in global thinking from materialistic to naturalistic)... a 20 point drop in the SPX could be a nice starter.... coincidence????
Hey what happened to all the happy belligerent bulls from yesterday? Something tells me they WILL be back to tell us how wrong they were. SMILE.
ReplyDeleteactually I am still bullish. why? I can't count 5 waves down from the 1443 high yesterday. Only 3... AND price hit the lower rising trend channel line AND the 200min SMA on the 30min chart both to the send. Not until 1) we can count 5 waves down, 2) that rising channel that connects the 1377, 1385, 1398, and 1411 low is broken; 3) price breaks below the 200min sma, will I get bearish. and if all of this doesn't happen I will be even more bullish as we've now completed a wave 1 and 2 of 3 of 3 and 3 of 3 is about to start and rip every bear's face off. The set up is right there... Now that a fiscal cliff resolution is priced out of the market, news that it has been resolved will rock it higher!!! Bears beware...
DeleteSmasrt man Arnie. This was classic shake the tree and settle down the rally. Once earnings are posted next 1/4 look out
DeleteI don;t know... I look over and over again at the charts all I see bearish set up..in terms of divergence. prices making new lows but indicators are printing upwards lines in 2 hrs , 4 hrs, daily charts... himmm....I hold my short positions..( I sold at least my long positions yesterday when I noticed the same thing on Euro, commodity and Japan charts) I wonder if I was just lucky or I started to learn trading :-))
DeleteThanks KS. Have a nice weekend and hey merry Christmas/holidays!
@ arnie...not you!! I'm talking about the regular trolls. You are not a bull or bear if you agree that the market can go up and also down. And you would be good trader if you knew how to exploit that.
DeleteRight here, don't know about you bud, but I was in TNA this morning, and Apple on the dip, doesn't look like much of a BEAR rally after we came off that 180 down. Look at TNA after hours. Rus is not quitting, sorry charlie.
ReplyDeleteHey KS, mery xmas and I hope you were not near that part pf PA where shootings happened. Thansk for all the work.
ReplyDeleteMerry christmas y'all. Markets only open till 1pm E.T. on Monday!! Haven't been able to count 5 waves down yet; but did count 5 waves up from the low... still not sold to the bear case... SPX still up for the week. The trend of higher highs and higher lows continues. Still channeling upwards etc etc...
ReplyDeleteBear market of the future will last days to a week.
ReplyDeleteHi KS,
ReplyDeleteBullish observations:
1) the $BPSPX has steadily climbed up to 71,
2) the RSI on the Weekly $SPX chart is 56.35, respectively above the 50-level, and
3) the $VIX had a large negative candle today and nearly closed inside the upper Bollinger Band line, and
4) the sentiment seems to be very bearish after last night's shenanigans, and
5) the RTH and the $SPX closed above your line in the sand levels.
So, is Keybot on the verge of flipping to the Long side?
Have a cool Yule!
rb
the charts that I mentioned above short ETF s.
DeleteThe bull-bear fight definitely continues along with both sides battling. The bears needed RTH 44.44 which did not occur. The SPX also remains above the 200 EMA on the 60-min at 1418. So each side has plenty of things to point to in their favor. The CPC is 1.05 but not yet above 1.20 which would tell you to bring on long positions. The VIX above the upper BB is interesting, note how the BB's squeezed in to create the move higher, so it may try to run a bit higher up the upper BB line, but it will want to recoil to at least the center BB at say 16.3-16.7-ish. Looks like lots of choppy action ahead, the volatility rising creates the wild days we see this week, three triple digit Dow days.
ReplyDeleteKS, what's your take on BBY at this moment? Well not right now before xmas but in general...thanks again for all your work
ReplyDelete