S&P futures were down five a few hours ago, now up two. Tech is leading the broad markets higher this morning which is bull-friendly. The euro was at 1.29-ish before Hurricane Sandy and ran up over 1.30 yesterday to bolster the equity bull case, but now hovers around the center area at 1.2960-ish. Euro up means the broad indexes move up, and visa versa. The SPX is moving thru a sideways channel 1406-1419. On Friday, the SPX tested the all-important 1403 support level and bounced. Yesterday, price explored the 1406 bottom rail, and the 1419 top rail of the sideways channel and did not decide either way. Bulls win above 1419. Bears win below 1403-1406. For today, if the SPX touches 1419, an upside acceleration will occur and 1424 will be tested quickly. The bears need to drop under 1406 to create a downside acceleration that will cause the SPX to pierce the strong 1403 support and drop under 1400 into the 1390's. A move thru 1407-1418 is sideways action today. The 20-week MA at 1407.07 is a key support level moving forward. The month ends with the SPX logging a down month, the first down move after four up months. November begins today so new money will be put to work. Keystone will post the November Seasonality factors for this Autumn month at some point today. Today is a Bradley turn date so a window remains open for a trend change for the broad indexes to occur. The down move off the top was a four day move, now markets move sideways for five days, so perhaps a committment will occur, up or down, at any time.
China PMI overnight is a hair above 50 indicating expansion but the HSBC number remains under 50. Copper and commodities run higher on hopes that China's economic woes have ended and better times are ahead. The ADP Jobs Report is better than expected but they announced a change in the calculation methodology leaving trader's scratching heads as to its predictive ability for the Jobs Report tomorrow morning. Jobless Claims and other data are in line. Earnings are flat to better for most releases this morning so the futures catch a slight bid moving towards the opening bell.
The retail sector jumped yesterday and M earnings may help continue that happiness. Watch RTH 44.44. Price is now above which creates broad market positivity. Watch GTX 4920 (commodities), now influencing markets negatively. Watch XLF 15.60, now affecting markets bullishly. Any change to these three will send the broad indexes in that respective direction. A market pivot point will occur at 10 AM EST when Consumer Confidence (delayed from Tuesday) and the ISM Manufacturing Index hit. Therefore, wait for the 10 AM mark for the markets to tip their hand on the preferred direction today. Europe continues to dictate market direction. Trader's continue to believe that Spain will ask for a bailout any day which maintains the Draghi support level at SPX 1400-ish. If trader's realize that Spain does not plan on requesting a bailout until the end of November or into December, the 1400 level will give way. Of course, if Rajoy has a change of mind, and decides to request a bailout, which will unleash the ECB's OMT bond-buying program, the equity markets will catapult higher. The markets are in a sideways funk where bulls will win above 1419 and the bears will win under 1406. Pay close attention to the 8 MA and 34 MA cross for the SPX 30-minute chart, now bearish, and also RTH 44.44, now bullish. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.71%.
Note Added 11/1/12 at 10:24 AM: The 10 AM pivot results in an upside launch with both the Consumer Sentiment and ISM encouraging the bulls. The 8 MA moves up thru the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart which forecasts bullishness for the hours and days ahead. The SPX punched thru 1419 so 1424 was on tap which printed. Price is now 1425.46 so then next upside resistance levels are 1426.63, 1429, 1431, 1432.63 (Keystone's important 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart), 1433, 1434.41 (50-day MA) and 1435. RTH remains above 44.44 helping bulls. GTX remains under 4920 helping bears. Watch the semiconductors, SOX, the 380 level. The upside rally will have strong legs if the SOX, now at 374.29, moves above 380. If the GTX and SOX cannot achieve the targets listed, the upside rally will likely run out of gas. The 1429 strong resistance, and the 1432.63 R, are key levels now. The bears must fortify and stop movement above here while the bulls need to punch up thru which will supply further bull fuel. Tech (COMPQ) is leading the broad markets (SPX) higher which will keep the indexes elevated today. AAPL is flat at 598.
Note Added 11/1/12 at 12:14 PM: RTH remains well above 44.44. GTX remains under 4920. SOX is 377 knocking on the 380 door that will encourage the bulls further. The SPX is at 1427 printing a HOD at 1428.35, so the strong 1429 R is stopping the bulls so far. The 2-hour, 1-hour and 30-minute charts want to see some buoyancy remain at these levels for the next few hours while the 15-minute, 10, and 5-minute charts are agreeable to price drifting lower now. A few hours of time would place the markets at today's close and tomorrow's Jobs Report will obviously create an inflection point. AAPL remains weak but the COMPQ is up 1.5% and the SPX is up one percent. Tech is leading the markets higher today despite Apple. Volume is light at a run rate of only about 84% of a day's expected volume. Interestingly, the euro is 1.2941 drifting lower today when it should be moving higher with such a strong rally underway. Yesterday copper was down, today up. Yesterday volatility was up, today down. Yesterday utes were up, today down, and the utilities sector is the underperfoming sector today. The 10-year yield is 1.72%. The bulls must punch up thru the strong 1429 R to continue the upside run.
Note Added 11/1/12 at 2:22 PM: RTH is 44.67 safely above 44.44, bullish. GTX is 4864 under 4920, bearish. SOX is 378.26 printing the highs of the day approaching the 380 level that will send the broad indexes another leg higher. The SPX 1429 R continues to serve as a ceiling today. The weakness shown by the minute charts entered the markets with the SPX slumping a few handles but maintaining its elevated posture overall today. For the last hour and one-half, the SPX has back tested the strong 1424 support (which was a strong resistance level at the start of the day) and decided to hold that support and move higher once again. If price can come back up to the highs today and test the 1429 R that should set up the 2-hour, 1-hour and 30-minute charts negatively. Tech continues to lead the upside which feeds the bullishness. AAPL is at 598. The NYSE volume is below average and light today now only running at about three-quarters of a days average expected volume. The weakness in the euro is the interesting story today, now at 1.2936, printing 1.2929 a few minutes ago. The ECB meeting is less than a week away now, next Thursday morning, 11/8/12, only a day or so after when the result of the presidential election will be known. The only way that Europe can achieve growth is to see the euro drop, so perhaps trader's are already sniffing out a rate cut by the ECB, or is today simply more oddball action due to Hurricane Sandy? The VIX is slipping under 17 but it will continue to help the bears as long as it stays above 16. The bulls will rule if the VIX drops under 16.
Note Added 11/1/12 at 4:17 PM: The SOX provided a dramatic finish, coming up to look at the 380 level Keystone highlighted this morning, then selling off. The semi's remain in play for tomorrow and will immediately tell you if the bulls have oomph, or not. RTH is 44.70. GTX 4857. The SPX finishes at 1428 so the strong resistance at 1429 will be an important number to watch tomorrow. The bulls came to play today and November's new money ran into to stocks. Utilities sold off. VIX closed at 16.69 staying above the 20-day MA at 16.32. Volume increased into the close and finished above an average day's volume, below yesterday's volume. The volume action is bookened at the opens and closes in this oddball week thus far. The Bradley turn may have marked the start of a recovery rally, SOX 380 and SPX 1429 will tell you if the rally continues tomorrow and of course, this all depends on the Jobs Report before the market opens.
Hourly SPX approaching the 100 ema.
ReplyDeleteWatch the 200 EMA at 1432.63 instead, that is very important.
DeleteBearish it seems? LOL
ReplyDeleteRemember Anon, Keybot the Quant is not designed to catch every little top and bottom move each day in the markets. It is designed to take the smoothest path possible thru the trading year with minimal risk. If bullish, you want to see either GTX 4920 or SOX 380 to show the rally is real. Also, the 200 EMA mentioned above will cause these two to run higher. If bearish, obviously you want to see a reversal asap and for the RTH to drop back under 44.44. SPX 1429 and the 200 EMA at 1432.63 are key. If the 1432.63 gives way the bulls can do a jig since further upside is likely. The 50-day MA at 1434.44 is now in play as well.
DeleteReference the Keybot site so you can understand how the algorithm works and not expose your lack of intelligence. But you obviously do that by staying anonymous. Talk intelligently and someone here will be glad to respond to your questions or comments.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p25705508112&a=275457077
ReplyDeleteI think it all comes down to USD and rates...
Nov 14th is the reporting date for the MBS transactions that cleared but I dont see how any of that money is going to find it's way to trading desks...
I think this is a wave 2 of 5 down - I have max target as 1441 but I dont think it gets above 1427?...
The TNX is on the chart list so if things settle down it can be posted. The PPO crossing the zero line would be a bear signal, look how it kept bouncing, so far. Today, the 10-year yield is only up a tick. With such a rally, it appears that new money for the month is moving into stocks, and to a lesser extent moving from bonds to stocks. So traders are willing to nibble long but at the same time want to keep a toe in the Treasury market.
DeleteIn almost every chat analysis from last few days, you said over and over that we were bearish moving forward. This was bearish and that was bearish for the markets ahead. All I am saying is that yet again your TA chart analysis is misguided.
ReplyDelete???? Anonymous - no investment goes up or down all at once unless it crashes or explodes! EW is better in hindshight but study it and you will get a sense of how psychology undulates...
Deletebe careful, the bull is drunk and stumbling!
Anonymous - this chart should give you some perspective on bull/bear
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p06703035318&listNum=2&a=281497491
Anon, you have to identify the time frames when you say bull or bear, or the other underlying conditions such as based on an algo, otherwise it does not mean much. Get away from the one-dimensional thinking. Instead of the 'markets are bullish, or bearish', say 'the markets are bullish across the 10-minute time frame', or, 'the markets are bearish over the weekly time frame'. So the case can be made for both bull or bear markets it only depends on what the time frame is. Also, like the 30-minute chart this morninig, that was a sideways profile which you had to wait for either 1406 for bears, or 1419 bulls and obviously the latter occurred. The SPX dropped 4% in only a few days time so a recovery rally is needed. Watch SOX 380 closely, also the 200 EMA on the 60-minute, and the 1429 resistance which will be the first signal that the bulls want to run higher, or, if the 1429 R holds, the first sign that price will weaken.
DeleteNot everyone was bearish ;-) This wave up should take us to ES 1426 or 27, right around Key's 200 ema.
ReplyDeleteKS, I hope sandy didn't cause to much harm in your neck of the woods, I myself went west to Maui for a long weekend, enjoying the no-market days and some nice days of sun and surf. Back to business: I am very interested to see you mention the 200 EMA on the 60min chart, since that exact level has been identified by some EWTers as either the C of a corrective 4th wave up with a 5th wave down to come, or actually 3 of a wave 1 up. Cool to see how things always come together and are not just random numbers. Or in other terms; KS just doesn't pull these levels out of thin air (to put it nicely...)
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p99398594516&a=281497430&listNum=2
DeleteArnie you are living the good life--the swaying hips of the hula girls along with the ukelele sounds. Conversely, it has been raining here since Sunday. Yep, 200 EMA on the 60 is very important, it is at 1432.52 right now.
DeleteScott, interesting back test of your lower trend line for the NDX. Another twenty points and price will be satisfied, then, either bounce and recover back above the trend line, or die.
yes - IWM is looking to retreat again below 82 - bearish indeed...
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44394334233&a=280316712
I have been burned at this juncture many times. FWIW my feeling is the market will rally strongly for at least two weeks and possibly two months, going higher than most thought possible. Sentiment washed out IMO though many will say it's still too complacent. What I have seen so many times is the market destroys all Bears with short-covering rallies until nobody dares go short except the major players, who will build shorts around the top.
ReplyDeleteI am not an oddsmaker but were Romney to win that might spark a big rally just because Americans like a new face--especially when their pocketbook is lighter.
Charles - I will say that I have seen more bear flags resolve to the upside than ever before in my life!
DeleteThat said the debt fractals of the debt money empire are at the end of their multiplicities. Spending is not the issue but the fact that every neo-socialist/proto-fascist authority is involved in constantly restructuring their version of interst only finance...
I don't know why people can see that Debt is not an asset nor can it create wealth.
"can't see" - I can't type! lol
DeleteMaybe I missed it, and maybe it's a dumb question, but why is 1429 strong resistance?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Great comments all, the Jobs Report will likely dictate the move into the elections. On the CPC put/call chart we still have not seen 1.20 or higher which identifies the area where it is great to go long. Markets are experiencing numerous short term and long term influences which accounts for all the wild action.
ReplyDeleteTown, the 1429 strong resistance is due to horizontal support and resistance at this level the last few years. The market action is hightened at these levels so they serve as inflection points. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart, the 50-day MA and the strong S/R levels at 1419, 1424, 1429, 1433 will serve as a gauge for the strength or weakness in markets on Friday.