Keystone's Midday Market Action 9/19/12; Housing Starts; China PMI Tonight

The Japan stimulus news bounced copper, commoditites and equities markets overnight into this morning but the effect is petering out into the U.S. opening bell. Housing Starts come in at 750K, no great shakes, that is about what would be expected, so a yawn results. S&P futures were up about six at 4 AM EST, then came down to the flat line but are now up about two or three.  For the SPX today, starting at 1459, the bears need to lose the 1456 level to initiate a downside acceleration. The bulls need to move above 1461.50 to ignite an upside acceleration, and a two or three point bump at the opening bell would place the bull case in play to start the day.  A move thru 1457-1460 is sideways today but this is a tight range. Price will likely choose up or down. Watch UTIL 478.48 since Keystone's algo will likely remain short, no matter how strong the market may move higher, if UTIL remains under 478.48.  Watch SOX 396 as well.   A market pivot point is on tap for 10 AM on the Existing Home Sales data and the China HSBC Flash PMI this evening is very important. Copper and commodity markets will react to the data. Spain is important, if they ask for a bailout markets go up, if they keep delaying the bailout, markets leak lower. The opening bell is only a few minutes away.

Note Added 9/19/12 at 10:57 AM:  The SPX is trying to poke thru 1461.50 and lock it in but the bears keep pushing price back down. Similar to yesterday when the bears were trying to push under 1457.50 and the bulls kept pushing price back up. Markets stumble along sideways in a malaise. SPX is in a range of 1457-1464 for over two days. The China and other PMI's are important overnight tonight but the markets may be waiting for a Spain decision as the catalyst to move out of the sideways channel. Tech is not leading the broad markets higher so the bulls are having trouble building up any oomph.  VIX is under 14 helping the bulls so far today. SOX is 399 nearing the 396 danger area. UTIL is 467.61, down a smidge on the day, so the utilities sector remains weak.

Note Added 9/19/12 at 1:00 PM:  The SPX move up thru 1461.50 today leads to the HOD of 1465.15.  Price is trying to breakout up thru 1464-1465 to break thru the two-day sideways channel.  Oil is at the lows now with a 91 handle.  SOX is 399.80.  UTIL is 468.51 now up on the day but ten points away from the important 478.48 level. The dollar/yen fell on its sword after this mornings excitement dropping down thru the 78.6 level to 78.2 before bouncing. Japan should ask for their money back. The 8 MA punched back up thru the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart at noon time so the bulls are driving this bus again, we are in another sideways funk, similar action today as in recent days, moving flat until a catalyst occurs.  Note how the SPX did print a higher high today as compared to yesterday. During OpEx week each month, the markets typically move from a low on Tuesday to a high on Wednesday, so that is fulfilled for another month. Keep it in mind for next month, 10/16 into 10/17. The beat goes on.

NoteAdded 9/19/12 at 2:15 PM:  VIX remains stubbornly low. SPX is up 0.24% but COMPQ is up only 0.19% so tech continues to not show upside leadership today, so the bulls struggle to maintain market buoyancy. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart, bullish. Very light volume today, the NYSE run rate is only on pace for less than 60% of a days expected average volume.  The lazy, hazy day of summer continues.

Note Added 9/19/12 at 3:42 PM:  A very uneventful day. TRIN is 0.84 so that is right in line with a bullish market day.  Volume remains light, call it about two-thirds of a days regular volume.  See if VIX closes under 14, or not.  The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart, bullish.  SOX 399.48. UTIL is up a buck today to 468.82. Nothing much going on today. What is the market waiting for?

Note Added 9/19/12 at 3:55 PM:  The euro moves along flat all day, now at 130.50-ish.  If Spain asks for the bailout, euro up, dollar down, commodities, gold, equities up. If Spain keeps playing games, and there is a meeting tomorrow where some light will be shed on the matter, and Spain balks, euro down, dollar up, commoditites, gold, equities down.

Note Added 9/19/12 at 4:01 PM:  The SPX 1461.50 level led the acceleration higher today to 1465.15, but, in the final minute, the air was leaking out of the hot air balloon, and it fell back below 1461.50 in the final minute. VIX closed at 13.83. SOX leaked closing at 398.53. UTIL closed at 468.59 remaining far below 478.48.  The bulls pushed the 8 MA back above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart today so they receive a feather in their cap. Otherwise, a flat day overall.  China Flash PMI at about 10:30 PM EST-ish is important tonight, and the Europe PMI's in the morning. We need to know what Spain has planned, they need to lay their cards on the table, perhaps it is the 'dead man's hand'?  Aces over eights.