Keystone's Midday Market Action 6/20/12

Happy first day of summer to all.  Today, Keystone is watching;
SOX 384.00, now causing market bullishness at 384.94.
NYA 7671, now causing market bullishness at 7766
XLF 14.35, now causing market bullishness at 14.50
VIX 18.90, now causing market bullishness at 18.38.

Bulls need to grab SPX 1363.50 to accelerate the upside, bears simply need to reverse any of the paramers above to stop the upside momo.

Note Added 6/20/12 at 9:34 AM:  Gold dropping not what one would expect with QE on the table. Is the PM market forecasting today's 12:30 PM annuncement?  The four parameters above all remain bullish, thus, the bulls place their feet on the desk and light a cigar. Chairman Bernanke is expected to deliver a pony in less than three hours.

Note Added 6/20/12 at 9:59 AM:  Status quo with things. Markets should drift sideways until 12:30 PM. Keystone bot APKT opening a new long position. APKT was downgraded today creating a downside flush, but the daily and weekly charts are positively diverged and appear attractive.

Note Added 6/20/12 at 10:50 AM:  Watch the VIX now at 18.58 and inching upwards. Other than that, sideways until Fed.

Note Added 6/20/12 at 1:05 PM: VIX crossed over 19 (over 18.90 is bullish) before the announcement, up to 20, and is now back under 18. Chairman Bernanke extends Operation Twist. SPX dropped ten handles but has recovered all of that and is now higher than before the announcement. The press conference at 2:15 PM takes on added importance now.

Note Added 6/20/12 at 1:20 PM:  Merkel indicates a softening stance (possible German concessions) so that helps create market buoyancy, likely a coordinated move between the Fed and Merkel; the timing is not a coincidence. The four parameters above, NYA, SOX, VIX and XLF, remain bullish just as they started this morning. Note that the SPX HOD is 1361.57 not yet near the 1363.50 the bulls need to see for an upside acceleration.

Note Added 6/20/12 at 2:40 PM: Chairman Bernanke is in the Q&A session, donning a top hat and tap shoes, dancing around the questions as best as possible. Markets slowly leaking lower. Keystone took profits on MNKD and closed the trade. Also took quickie small profit on APKT in a day trade today will look to reenter by the close.

Note Added 6/20/12 at 3:16 PM:  The circus came to town and is now wrapping up. Bernanke's press conference ends. Markets drift sideways with a downward bias. Keystone opens up a long position in CUR, a very small highly speculative trade, very thinly traded, perhaps willing to hold this thru the short to IT term ahead. HPQ has set up nicely with positive divergence on daily and weekly charts, and is a highly liquid stock, it appears attractive anywhere in here 20.75-21.20. Keystone is not in it currently.

Note Added 6/20/12 at 3:35 PM: SPX is printing 1351.73.  The 20-week MA is 1360.21 and the 100-day MA is 1359.46; both were pierced intraday and serve as overhead resistance. The 50-day MA is 1346.77 which was tapped for the LOD and this support held. Watch to see how price closes in relation to the 20-week MA and 100-day MA. If you recall at the end of yesterday's bear beating, the bear's managed to close under these two important moving averages; see if the bear's can close under them again today.

Note Added 6/20/12 at 4:00 PM:  Utiliites and telecom sectors lagged today; we saw those affects develop yesterday. The broad indexes move with oil and oil is weak. The SPX closes around 1356 bracketed by the 20-week and 100-day MA's above and the 50-day MA below.  Keystone did not reenter APKT yet, looking for a lower entry, staying stingy on entries. It appears that traders are all seeing what they want to see today, if you think QE3 is coming, you still do, if you think QE3 is not coming, you still do. Chairman Bernanke is now the Harry Houdini of Central Bankers.