The stock market bullish joy and euphoria continues with new record highs last week. It is the Godot top that refuses to roll over and die. The 6200 to 6600 range is all the action since the end of June. The all-time record high for the S&P 500 is 6600.21 on Friday, 9/12/25. Keystone was handed a "SPX 6.6K" hat but it had a coffee stain on it and it smelled funny. He told the kid to keep it. The SPX all-time closing high is 6587.47 on Thursday, 9/11/25.
The market is news-driven. The turning point was Jackson Hole when Chairman Powell locked-in the quarter-point rate cut for 9/17/25 (this coming Wednesday). The dollar collapsed, gold skyrocketed and equities took off higher celebrating the easy money that is coming that will goose stocks and make the wealthy more filthy rich. Don't you love the crony capitalism filth?
Each time stocks become soggy a new data point performed a stick-save. After Jackson Hole, the jobs report provided a big rally in stocks as traders celebrate a failing economy since that means more easy money from the Fed to goose stocks higher and enrich the wealthy's pockets since they own the stock market. Just think, people want to actually save this corrupt rigged system. Good luck.
Inflation data, the Oracle happy guidance, King Donnie happy talk, the ongoing AI rally, and other rosy optimism fuels the new highs. The handful of bears shorting the market gave up, threw-in the towel, and are now buying NVDA stock and utilities with both fists. It is funny stuff. We can take a look at the charts and see where this mess is at.
The stock market is hanging on, walking on eggshells, from Jackson Hole, to jobs, to inflation data, to stay buoyant into the Fed meeting on hump day this week that will be a circus. Housing Starts, that confirm the ongoing housing recession, are released Wednesday morning before the Fed decision and presser after lunch.
On the daily chart, the tight bands are squeezing a big move higher that is a big surprise. The Monday and Tuesday candlesticks are important because the bears would need to reverse the price action quick to create a large downside squeeze from the tight bands. It is wild stuff with the tight bands telling you that in about a month the SPX will either be at 6800 or down at 6300 (tight bands do not predict direction).
The two price highs to end last week show that negative divergence remains in place continuing to want a spankdown. The MACD is trying to curl higher but remains neggie d over the last few months. The stock market is a piece of crap that refuses to roll over and die. The Joe Retail money is caught up in the hype keeping the bubble inflated reminiscent of the dot-com bubble.
The red rising wedge is ominous and wants to see a collapse in price. The SPX has tagged the upper band so the middle band at 6473 and lower band at 6363 are on the table. The ADX shows that price is not in a strong uptrend despite the healthy rally. The strong trend higher in stocks ended at that late-July drop-off and has never recovered despite the market complacency and euphoria.
The Aroon perfectly illustrates the stock market currently. The green line shows every single bull expects stocks to go up forever. Not a surprise, right? However, the red line shows that every single bear has given up on stocks ever going down and are now expecting stocks to go up forever. Talk about everyone on one side of the boat. Let the festivities begin. With such craziness occurring, a topping out and roll-over may not be on the plate and instead an all-out collapse a la Black Monday or Black Friday, that type of thing, may occur instead.
Did yinz see the new Klarna company that came to market? KLAR jumped to 57 and now back to 42. It is a buy now pay later scam, er, business. Say what?! That is funny. Do you need a clearer signal of a significant top than a buy now pay later scheme hoisted on investor's shoulders and receiving adoring cheers on Wall Street while rose petals are laid on its path forward?
The SPX weekly chart shows two strong weeks on the rate-cut, AI, inflation, Oracle, happy talk but the chart remains in neggie d. It is trying to extend the rally for another week or two with the RSI and MACD.
Traders and investors are all bulled-up heading into the Wednesday Fed decision with a 25-bip cut guaranteed and many expecting 50 and if not, at least a very dovish presser where Powell will promise rate cuts as far as the eye can see. The rich dance with glee, worshipping the crony capitalism system that the peons do not see.
The Aroon on the weekly is just like the daily. On a weekly basis, every bull expects stocks to go up forever and nearly every bear expects stocks to go up forever. The ADX drops to 17, on the weekly basis, verifying that the happy rally is not a strong trend higher. Keep an eye on the RSI and MACD as the new weekly candlestick begins tomorrow morning. Traders expect Powell to be flapping dovish wings on hump day.
For the monthly chart, it is same-o as the daily and weekly time frames. The red rising wedge is bearish wanting to see price collapse on the monthly basis. All the indicators remain in neggie d as traders and investors await Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High on hump day to tell international traders how to trade.
The Aroon on them monthly verifies the rampant stock market complacency and bullish belief that stocks will never go down again. It is remarkable. Every bull believes stocks will go up forever on a monthly basis while nearly all the bears also believe stocks will go up forever in this long-term time frame. Keep an eye on the MACD line. The bulls are fighting like Hell to try and extend the top for another month or two and the MACD, and RSI, will show the way ahead. Remember, it is a monthly candlestick so it will continue to take shape up or down over the next 12 trading days until October begins.
The Keybot the Quant robot remains long the stock market and is tracking banks, copper, commodities and volatility as the key metrics controlling stock market direction currently. The bears likely need to see weaker banks if they want to growl so watch the XLF 52.70 line in the sand identified by the quant. Bulls need stronger copper to keep the upside euphoric rally going. Keystone continues building short positions in the stock market, that are currently underwater.
The expectation remains for a serious drawdown going forward although the analysts (Evercore's Emanuel, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Blackrock's Rieder, Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus, Fundstrat's Lee, Yardeni, CNBC's Cramer, Citi's Chronett, Principal Asset's Shah, Federated Hermes Chiavarone, Oaktree's Marks, Renaissance Macro's deGraaf, JPM is telling everyone to buy the dips going forward, TPW's Pelosky, HSBC's Kettner, Goldman Sach's Kostin, Truist Wealth's Lerner, Deutsche Bank's permabull Binky Chadha, Barclay's and Wells Fargo strategists are bullish, and Wharton Professor Siegel proclaims, "The trend is up.") continue calling for bigtime bullish price targets ahead of 'SPX 7K' and higher telling everyone to buy, buy, buy! Go Your Own Way. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 9/29/25: The bullishness continues as the SPX chops sideways at 6600-6700. BMO is the latest to profess big gains for stocks ahead calling for SPX 7K by the end of the year. Keystone is organizing a search party to find out if there are any bears that exist on Wall Street. It is believed that the bears have gone extinct. A government shutdown occurs this evening as the two corrupt political parties squabble.
Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.
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