Is all the drama done yet? The Fed rate decision is in the rearview mirror, finally, and the rate cut is 25 bips (0.25%) as expected with two more slated for this year. One could occur at the Halloween-ish meeting (10/29/25) and the other on 12/10/25. The market reaction to the cut is subdued but futures were up this morning and the rally continues today on more AI and chip hype. It smells like the dotcom bubble days.
Enron, an energy company, was a piece of trash years ago diversifying into all kinds of odd businesses buying theaters and bowling alleys. It was odd but traders did not care because they were too busy buying shares. Of course, it collapsed. Nowadays, Intel is getting passed around like a bowl of macadamia nuts. The government owns a piece of INTC spitting on the capitalism system, that does not exist anyway, and now NVDA is involved with Intel. Maybe this is the new version of Enron-type follies with many companies buying other company's stock. It will end the same way.
Anyhoo, the saga over the last month and more from AI news, to happy Donnie news, to inflation data, to rate-cut hype, rinse and repeat, ends with the crescendo sounding on hump day afternoon. To paraphrase Art Cashin, the trading floor looks like a wax museum now. You look around and recognize all the faces but everyone is standing there and not doing anything. The Big Fed climax leaves the crowd looking at each other wondering what is next?
The stock market is long overdue for correcting; call it 2 months about 8 weeks. The rally is kept alive by the above mentioned positive news and data items and because the upper middle class, and wealthy elite, that raped the country for all its worth over the last few decades, with the blessing of the Fed's obscene money-printing, continue spending that helps maintain steady employment (but for how long?).
The technicals may finally have their chance in the sun. Charts can only price in all news known up to the minute the chart is made, including insider information since the chart will reflect that activity, but any new news, or Donnie happy talk, or AI and chip hype like today, needs a little bit of time to get priced-in to the charts.
The SPX 2-hour chart is topped out so the bears will get a chance at bat starting tomorrow. The red lines show universal neggie d across all indicators so a spankdown is in order in the 2-hour time frame. The red rising wedge is bearish. The chart is overbot wanting to pullback. Price tagged the upper band so the middle band at 6609 and lower band at 6580 are on the table over the near term.
The daily chart remains neggie d so the 2-hour may finally kick in the long-awaited downdraft in US stocks in the daily, weekly and monthly time frames. Black Friday has a nice ring to it. The buying volume today was healthy on the daily chart matching activity from April so Joe Sixpack cannot buy shares fast enough caught up in the stock market hype the last few days.
Joe will be the bag-holdin' sucka and end up drinking a bottle of whiskey nursing his wounds. Joey. If you look close, you will see Joey stumbling along the streets of Manhattan. About 80% of the CEO's are filthy drunks; that is why most are divorced. Are you Joey? Don't be Joey.
Barring any happy talk or hype news overnight, the SPX is ready to start dropping. Friday will be an interesting day. Sunday is the new moon peak for the month (darkest overnight period of the month a great time to launch military offenses if you have state of the art night vision equipment) when stocks are typically soggy. The first day of Autumn, the Fall equinox, is Sunday/Monday with the first night of Rosh Hashanah on Monday.
Wall Street is eerily quiet tonight. A lonely harmonica plays "Shenandoah" that echoes through the valley reminiscent of the Civil War before a big battle the next day, like Gettysburg. There are no bears on Wall Street, only bulls selling stocks to other bulls that regret they sold so they buy the shares back at even higher prices. Save yourself while you still can.
Keybot the Quant remains long so it will be interesting to see if the robot makes a move to the short side going forward. Oh Shenandoah, I long to see you, away, you rolling river..... Traders prepare for the battle tomorrow. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Friday Evening, 9/19/25, at 6:30 PM EST: What happened? That was a weak battle. The bears are running in retreat again, and they dropped the harmonica in a mud puddle. The King Donnie and Dictator Xi phone call turned out to be more of the typical bull sh*t expected so it did not appear to move markets. The bulls, however, brought an apple for the stock market teacher. AAPL gaps-up at the open taking the SPX with it. Everyone is bulled-up about the iPhone 17. It is the best thing since sliced bread. Humorously, there is no charge for the scratched back covers on the new phones. Sapple used to make quality items. The lines at the stores are not like they were in the past but the new release is played up to bigtime proportions in the media. Sales are robust in China, across Asia, CEO Cook says we're hitting it out of the park. Tim Cook was in one store holding people in a headlock until they bot a phone. Everyone says the new phone is fantastic but when you ask them if they are going to buy one they say, "who? me?" As Apple goes, so goes the stock market. Traders got so giddy that they started to hype the META tech glasses. If you put those goofy glasses on, you look like an idiot. Why does anyone need all that tech junk, like those ear cigarette butts? You are really not that important. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6671.82 and new all-time closing high at 6664.36. Stocks fell after the strong open and at 11:30 AM EST, the VIX was jammed lower from 16.13 down to 15.45 at the closing bell sending stocks higher. The pivot was exactly at 11:30 so that may have been happy talk after the Donnie/Xi phone call? Chips are on a 3-week rampage higher after the Oracle happy talk. Banks are holding up helping to keep stocks buoyant. Copper, however, remains in the bear camp despite the euphoric joy. Nothing has changed. Instead of Black Friday, let's try Black Monday. Each day forward is key since the stock market should crack open like an egg anytime with the hype into the rate decision finished. Up, Up and Away, in my big beautiful balloon, with the big beautiful bill lighting the way. We can fly! We can fly! That's what the crackhead said when he jumped off the roof.
Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.
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