SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts

The stock market topping drama continues. The bulls do not want to let go. Every day is another day of singing the happy flute song Una Paloma Blanca as dip-buyers remain active. It appears the song created a goofy dance that looks like fun. That is an ear worm song that you will hear the rest of the day. It will put you in a good mood.

Anyhoo, looking at the daily chart spaghetti, the light blue lines show the H&S that was nullified, then the purple bars show the double top that was nullified. The orange circle is the 'inflation data' orgy and the dark blue circle is the 'US/China trade deal' orgy and the brown circle is the 'end of US government shutdown' orgy. Note that a new H&S pattern is now in play with the head at the all-time record high.

Stocks are choppy slop through the 6550-6830 area for the last 2-1/2 months. Chop suey. As previously explained, the negative divergence, red rising wedge, overbot conditions, upper band violation, and price extension above the moving average ribbon all call the top, that occurs. Stocks are hesitant at moving lower due to the excessive euphoric bullishness that remains in the stock market and evidenced by the relentless dip-buyers.

The lower band is violated so a move back up to the middle band, that is the 20-day MA, at 6794, is on the table. Price bounced off the 50-day MA at 6704 on Friday mimicking the move from 5 days prior as the end of government shutdown orgy kicked into high gear. The stochastics show positive divergence for the dip in the SPX price that helped create the recovery rally on Friday. Note that the other indicators remain weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in price on the daily basis even if a day or two of upside occurs.

The Aroon green line shows that only one-half of the bulls remain bullish on stocks on the daily basis. It is comical that the red line shows that 100% of the bears believe stocks will remain bullish and heading higher. That is funny and verifies the off the charts bullish euphoria that lingers in markets likely identifying a historic top.

The stock market is highly news driven these days due to King Donnie's daily carnival show. That Epstein saga continues so there must be some doggy dirt that will come out. Maybe Donnie, or his spoiled rich friends, that are now likely donors to the republicans and his causes, were diddlin' where they should not have been diddlin', like Diddy? Did he or didn't he? Diddy did. Diddle-diddle-do. Epstein was on Welcome Back Kotter. He had a phony note business since they were always skipping school. He would sign the bottom of each absence excuse note with 'Epstein's Mother'. That show was funny and where Travolta started to take off as an actor.

Anyhoo, if price continues lower on lousy news bites, watch the 100-day MA at 6526 as support. Price loves to bounce off the 100. The 6550 is strong price support (blue line) and the 100 is coming up to form a confluence with the price support. Perhaps the 6550-ish level will act as a magnet over the coming days and couple weeks. The daily chart is choppy sideways slop with a downward bias.

For the SPX weekly chart, the prior posts describe the top again with neggie d across all indicators (red lines), overbot conditions, rising wedge behavior, upper band violation and price extension above the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion lower. The initial neggie d spankdown occurs to kick of a multi-week pullback but the down move is stalled slightly due to the ongoing uber bullishness and stock market euphoria that provides false confidence to dip-buyers.

A multi-week down move is expected due to the neggie d. There is only about 6 weeks or so remaining in the year and the holidays are on tap with Thanksgiving coming fast. Stocks may continue to sell off through Thanksgiving and into December and then maybe conditions improve for the last couple weeks as Santa arrives. Tax-loss selling occurs in early December so that may be the crescendo for the multi-week downside move. Santa gave Keystone coal last year, and each prior year. Keystone checked the Christmas stocking hanging on the fireplace mantle last year but the sock had a hole in it.

The Aroon shows that nearly 100% of the bulls expect the stock market to go up forever on the weekly basis and the red line shows that 100% of the bears also believe stocks will go up on the weekly basis going forward. Pause for laughter. There is your dip-buyers, folks. Bulls may be a bit hesitant on the daily basis but you can see everyone and his brother bullish the stock market on the weekly basis. Well, all of you are going to have to be taught a lesson.

The middle band, that is the 20-wk MA, at 6531, is on the table as well as the lower band at 6166. Over the coming months and year or two, the SPX would be expected to venture down to the 200-wk MA at 4953 and lower. The SPX monthly chart will dictate and confirm THE top so you have to make sure that displays universal neggie d for all chart indicators to call THE top (it is either right now in real-time or a month or so forward; it should be historic; the monthly chart will provide the answer over the next couple weeks).

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's trading robot, remains long despite last week's negativity. The quant is tracking XLF 52.79 and UTIL (or DJU) 1113.47. Banks are below creating negativity in the stock market while utilities are above creating support for the stock market. The quant is champing at the bit to go short but needs to see SPX 6647 tomorrow, or, if UTIL turns negative, the quant may flip short immediately. It should be an exciting, and perhaps historic, week ahead.

Remember, as stocks begin falling apart, Don't Panic. The bulls are screaming, "Don't Drag Me Down." Your history books are full of lies. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: The SPX drops to 6521 intraday Friday and then ends the week at 6603.