The US labor recession is now 2 years old and counting but no one will be providing a birthday cake for this b*stard. Americans are starting to experience layoffs, the nice way of saying you're fired, across all industries. Companies are getting rid of the dead weight in the first round of layoffs. Companies will start cutting the loyal dedicated employees as the weeks and months play out. Companies are telling workers to get back into the office if not already. The COVID-19 party-time of WFH (working from home) is over.
Humorously, there are anecdotal stories that bosses are asking workers to come back into the office but they say 'no can do' because they moved to a different city or even out of state thinking that they could work from home indefinitely. That is funny. What a crazy world.
If you are working from home in your slippers and bathrobe, you best take a shower and put on some clean clothes and start commuting to work again, otherwise, you will be at the top of the layoff list for the next round. Other employees sense the pending slowness in the economy and begin kissing the bosses *ss more frequently plus providing dirt on other workers hoping their coworkers will be laid off first. This is when employees that chose to get married and have kids will tell single workers that they should get laid off first because they do not have a family (even though the married dude is a worthless garbage employee).
We are in the layoff window now September and October. Back in the 1980's, companies would sh*t-can you in mid-November; they did not care. The bad publicity that companies would then receive, however, kicking poor Timmy the family man out into the street days before Thanksgiving, made managers think twice about how they administer layoffs when business turns south.
Generally, nowadays, companies will avoid laying off workers after November 1 because they do not want to be labeled as a Scrooge ruining the family's holidays. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the fun parties, if you are working and worried about your job, you just have to keep your job for 8 more weeks, if so, you are probably safe in your position until a big round of layoffs will occur in January to begin the new year. So put on your beggin' pads, kneel, and start kissing the bosses arse.
The loss of migrant workers is another ongoing mess especially in the heart of harvest season right now. Who will pick the fruit and vegetables and harvest the corn? Or cook meals? Or clean dirty sheets? Or scrub toilets? Make beds? Carry bags? Wait on tables? King Donnie and his gang are arresting every short person they see. No wonder the landscaper has not returned Keystone's phone calls.
The next couple employment reports may finally show the spike higher in the unemployment rate that typically happens to kick off a deterioration in the labor market. Workers are walking on eggshells this month (September) and next (October) hoping the boss does not call them in on the carpet, because they know they will be handed a pink slip and told to get out within 15 minutes.
The employee will say, "But boss, I was a loyal employee the last few years and even blew-off my kid's soccer games a birthday party to meet your deadlines." The boss will say, "Thank you for kissing my *ss all those years, now pack up your family photos, half-dead houseplant, and change for the soda machine, and get the Hell out." Many of you young folks will realize how your employer does not give a rat's behind about you, your family or your life, even though they told you so (just to get more productive work out of you). Welcome to the real world.
The 4.3% unemployment rate announced yesterday compares back to last August and then back to late 2021 emphasizing its elevated status. Further, the blue line is moving more up and away from the red line forecasting a higher likelihood of more trouble ahead (a higher rate).
The 25-bip rate cut is fully priced in for the FOMC meeting decision on 9/17/25 and even a smidge of a 50-bip offering. With the 4.3% unemployment rate and likely rising, the markets are pricing in rate cuts for 9/17/25, 10/29/25, and 12/10/25 (three cuts; one at each of the last 3 meetings this year). Does it matter that much? No.
As the likely overall recession arrives with stocks dropping and the AI bubble popping, a few basis points lower in rates will not be much of an incentive to keep the spending going. Worse, if stagflation expands, with the jobs picture worsening at the same time Donnie's tariff Trumpflation (inflation) increasing, it will be lights-out. King Donnie, King Cry-Baby, is in trouble because the excessive food prices, electricity and insurance costs, and other prices, are destroying people's lives and attitudes. Trump has failed at reducing prices.
Looking forward to the 10/3/25 Monthly Jobs Report, a 4.1% rate would be fantastic news since it would finally signal a jobs recovery starting after this 2-year labor recession. However, this is not likely. A 4.2% rate on 10/3/25 will maintain the labor recession. So will a 4.3% rate and obviously anything higher. It may take the jump move to 4.4% or 4.5% and that will cause people to start using the R word everyday forward (recession).
Go back and study Keystone's article and chart from the last jobs report to understand the jobs picture in greater detail. As expected, King Donnie blames the weak job numbers on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering rates. That is the reason for the orange head attacking the Fed over the last 3 months; he is setting the Fed up to be scapegoats if the economy and stocks fall off a cliff. Don't you idiots know how Donnie operates by now? The labor recession is likely worsening. This time it will be No More Mr Nice Guy.
Note Added Wednesday, 9/10/25, at 12:49 PM EST: The BLS released the revised headline jobs numbers for the yearly period from April 2024 through March 2025 and about a million jobs are lost or 83K per month. Each month, the headline number was about 80K higher than it should have been. Thus, the rate cuts going forward are a lock since the labor market is far weaker than anyone believed. Finally, everyone is catching up to Keystone. We have been in a labor recession for 2 years, folks. The revision one year ago was over 800K less jobs and the final-final revision was below 600K so when the final-final is released for the one million job loss in January, it will probably be in the 700K-ish range that is still an additional loss of about 60K jobs per month. Anyone following markets expected this. The 800K number last year was more of a shock than the 1 million yesterday. Keystone told you to follow the unemployment rate, that is what Chairman Powell is watching, because no matter what the jobs numbers, the rate will still pick up and display the same trend. In other words, if you decrease all the rates above by say, 0.1% each month, you still have the same basic chart and we would still be in a 2-year labor recession. The headline jobs numbers are becoming a complete joke and King Donnie's criticism of all the data that does not paint him in a good light only adds to the confusion and likely trouble ahead. The headline jobs numbers for the last few months may be all negative once the future revisions are known next year. Donnie Trump has been known to be in charge of the economy going forward since last November's election, and then installed as POTUS in January, now 10 months along. Is the full-blown recession, that is hiding in the bushes, finally sneaking in the back door? Hello, honey, it's Johnny, I'm home.
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