CPC CBOE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart

Now just a doggone minute. That stick of dynamite is ridiculously long. JJ would always say, "Dy-no-mite." The rampant complacency and euphoric optimism continues for the last three months as evidenced by the low put/call ratios signaling a significant top. Everybody and his bro is long the market and bullish. There are no bears. That stick of TNT is going to explode the stock market to the downside.

The CPC is uncharacteristic behavior so it is super interesting. The stock market should have already topped-out and continuing a downtrend but instead the SPX prints a new all-time high at 6671.82 and new all-time closing high at 6664.36. Does the behavior mean the drop will be a doozy when she does roll over?

Joe Retail, Carlos Sixpack, Antoine Bagholder and Carmelita Sucka are very active in the stock market, caught up in the AI hype and other happy talk, buying stocks like crazy. Sure, these four always end up holding the bag at the top but a lot of you young folks are savvy these days. Since the big money from young people with good jobs, especially in the tech sector, may be instrumental in extending this stock market top with atypical behavior, will the young folks jumping ship create a downdraft in stocks not seen for many years? A crash?

A lot of young people buying in this rally are all looking like Einsteins. They have nice profits especially since many likely bot several tech stocks for their holdings. A lot of these young people may not want to stick around either. Nowadays, the young folks may want to trade more ignoring the old buy and hold philosophy heralded by Warren Buffet. Grandpa Warren says buy a stock and if you wait 50 years, it will be worth a lot of money. US demographics go against a future buy and hold philosophy.

Since we are in the Godot Recession, where there is a housing, labor and manufacturing recession for over 2 years, but not an overall recession yet, it is missing, like Godot, we may as well have a Godot stock market top.

This is exciting stuff. It is comical to see the laissez-faire attitude by investors, traders, commentators, media talking heads, strategists, analysts, the Uber driver, shoeshine boy and doorman. Bears are extinct and now only talked about around a campfire when an elder is telling stories about the old days. There are not even any bears at the zoo anymore.

This is big, folks. It is fascinating to watch. The stock market is going to crack open like an egg going forward. If the retail crowd that jumped into the rally, and now have big profits, decide to take those profits and jump ship getting out of all their stocks, it could be a spectacular crash on tap. For now, the multi-month stock market top continues through, say, SPX 6200-6700.

Keybot the Quant remains long currently and is tracking copper and commodities as the two key drivers of stock market direction. S&P futures are down -5 points Sunday evening on the East Coast call it flat. What was that? Did you hear it? It sounded like a growl. Something hairy is moving in those bushes and its not Uncle Dave.

Plan accordingly because this may be one of those times where you wake up in the morning and it is too late. We need some Jimmy Reed since the market will have everyone running, hiding, going up, down, down, up, anyway you want it, let it roll. Baby What You Want Me To Do. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 9/23/25, at 3:16 AM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6698.88 and new all-time closing high at 6693.75. It is a 2-day Apple rally pumping AAPL over +8% higher sending indexes skyward to new record highs. In addition, NVDA announces a deal with OpenAI so the tech crowd goes wild. Humorously, at the same time, a circle-jerk is exposed where NVIDIA makes investments in small tech firms and those companies take the money and buy NVDA chips. Sure, that will end well. The last couple days of stock market euphoria are purely due to Apple.

Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

Is all the drama done yet? The Fed rate decision is in the rearview mirror, finally, and the rate cut is 25 bips (0.25%) as expected with two more slated for this year. One could occur at the Halloween-ish meeting (10/29/25) and the other on 12/10/25. The market reaction to the cut is subdued but futures were up this morning and the rally continues today on more AI and chip hype. It smells like the dotcom bubble days.

Enron, an energy company, was a piece of trash years ago diversifying into all kinds of odd businesses buying theaters and bowling alleys. It was odd but traders did not care because they were too busy buying shares. Of course, it collapsed. Nowadays, Intel is getting passed around like a bowl of macadamia nuts. The government owns a piece of INTC spitting on the capitalism system, that does not exist anyway, and now NVDA is involved with Intel. Maybe this is the new version of Enron-type follies with many companies buying other company's stock. It will end the same way.

Anyhoo, the saga over the last month and more from AI news, to happy Donnie news, to inflation data, to rate-cut hype, rinse and repeat, ends with the crescendo sounding on hump day afternoon. To paraphrase Art Cashin, the trading floor looks like a wax museum now. You look around and recognize all the faces but everyone is standing there and not doing anything. The Big Fed climax leaves the crowd looking at each other wondering what is next?

The stock market is long overdue for correcting; call it 2 months about 8 weeks. The rally is kept alive by the above mentioned positive news and data items and because the upper middle class, and wealthy elite, that raped the country for all its worth over the last few decades, with the blessing of the Fed's obscene money-printing, continue spending that helps maintain steady employment (but for how long?).

The technicals may finally have their chance in the sun. Charts can only price in all news known up to the minute the chart is made, including insider information since the chart will reflect that activity, but any new news, or Donnie happy talk, or AI and chip hype like today, needs a little bit of time to get priced-in to the charts.

The SPX 2-hour chart is topped out so the bears will get a chance at bat starting tomorrow. The red lines show universal neggie d across all indicators so a spankdown is in order in the 2-hour time frame. The red rising wedge is bearish. The chart is overbot wanting to pullback. Price tagged the upper band so the middle band at 6609 and lower band at 6580 are on the table over the near term.

The daily chart remains neggie d so the 2-hour may finally kick in the long-awaited downdraft in US stocks in the daily, weekly and monthly time frames. Black Friday has a nice ring to it. The buying volume today was healthy on the daily chart matching activity from April so Joe Sixpack cannot buy shares fast enough caught up in the stock market hype the last few days.

Joe will be the bag-holdin' sucka and end up drinking a bottle of whiskey nursing his wounds. Joey. If you look close, you will see Joey stumbling along the streets of Manhattan. About 80% of the CEO's are filthy drunks; that is why most are divorced. Are you Joey? Don't be Joey.

Barring any happy talk or hype news overnight, the SPX is ready to start dropping. Friday will be an interesting day. Sunday is the new moon peak for the month (darkest overnight period of the month a great time to launch military offenses if you have state of the art night vision equipment) when stocks are typically soggy. The first day of Autumn, the Fall equinox, is Sunday/Monday with the first night of Rosh Hashanah on Monday.

Wall Street is eerily quiet tonight. A lonely harmonica plays "Shenandoah" that echoes through the valley reminiscent of the Civil War before a big battle the next day, like Gettysburg. There are no bears on Wall Street, only bulls selling stocks to other bulls that regret they sold so they buy the shares back at even higher prices. Save yourself while you still can.

Keybot the Quant remains long so it will be interesting to see if the robot makes a move to the short side going forward. Oh Shenandoah, I long to see you, away, you rolling river..... Traders prepare for the battle tomorrow. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Evening, 9/19/25, at 6:30 PM EST: What happened? That was a weak battle. The bears are running in retreat again, and they dropped the harmonica in a mud puddle. The King Donnie and Dictator Xi phone call turned out to be more of the typical bull sh*t expected so it did not appear to move markets. The bulls, however, brought an apple for the stock market teacher. AAPL gaps-up at the open taking the SPX with it. Everyone is bulled-up about the iPhone 17. It is the best thing since sliced bread. Humorously, there is no charge for the scratched back covers on the new phones. Sapple used to make quality items. The lines at the stores are not like they were in the past but the new release is played up to bigtime proportions in the media. Sales are robust in China, across Asia, CEO Cook says we're hitting it out of the park. Tim Cook was in one store holding people in a headlock until they bot a phone. Everyone says the new phone is fantastic but when you ask them if they are going to buy one they say, "who? me?" As Apple goes, so goes the stock market. Traders got so giddy that they started to hype the META tech glasses. If you put those goofy glasses on, you look like an idiot. Why does anyone need all that tech junk, like those ear cigarette butts? You are really not that important. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6671.82 and new all-time closing high at 6664.36. Stocks fell after the strong open and at 11:30 AM EST, the VIX was jammed lower from 16.13 down to 15.45 at the closing bell sending stocks higher. The pivot was exactly at 11:30 so that may have been happy talk after the Donnie/Xi phone call? Chips are on a 3-week rampage higher after the Oracle happy talk. Banks are holding up helping to keep stocks buoyant. Copper, however, remains in the bear camp despite the euphoric joy. Nothing has changed. Instead of Black Friday, let's try Black Monday. Each day forward is key since the stock market should crack open like an egg anytime with the hype into the rate decision finished. Up, Up and Away, in my big beautiful balloon, with the big beautiful bill lighting the way. We can fly! We can fly! That's what the crackhead said when he jumped off the roof.

Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

UAA Under Armour Weekly Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence

It is hard to find anything worth buying these days since most stocks/indexes are negatively diverged across multiple time frames (topping or topped-out). The stock market keeps printing new highs but there should be a significant pullback at the doorstep perhaps in concert with the Wednesday Fed rate decision.

But Keystone stumbled across UAA. Under Armour was a beloved stock for a long time but now it looks like it has been ridden hard and put away wet. Nasty. From 12 to 4.85 in only 10 months. That is a -60% crash. Wow. What happened? Maybe Lululemon and others have taken share but the Under Armour logo remains everywhere. There must be incompetent management but all that would need looked into and make sure it is not going under.

All that aside, on the charts alone, UAA has paid its dues and is set up to bounce going forward due to the possie d. The overall stock market needs to retreat but UAA was already bludgeoned -60% so it may not feel the wrath of the pending market downside; it is already beaten-up and lying in the alley in a puddle of ravioli sauce next to the dumpster. 

Under Armour makes those fancy shirts that cling to your body. They do not look comfortable. Everyone wants an athletic edge or they want people to think they are athletic. Isn't it funny to see a relative or neighbor wearing workout clothes for many years but they are still fatso's? The only sprint they run is to the refrigerator and back to grab a few chicken legs and a soda before the television commercial ends.

The weekly chart above wants UAA to begin a multi-week rally higher due to the positive divergence (green lines). The -60% is a big beating. Some folks thought the all-clear sounded and jumped in during the summer only to have their heads handed to them as price falls to another low. Looking at the daily chart, there is also universal positive divergence across all indicators wanting to see a rally start. Ditto the 2-hour.

Keystone does not own UAA long or short currently but the obvious play forward is long. It is one of the very few stocks that are a buy in the entire market right now. Keystone will have to look into it a bit more but may buy some for a quickie long trade. It appears to have changed accounting firms. Whenever the word 'accounting' is mentioned with any stock it is sell first and ask questions later. The moves off the positive divergence bottom are typically strong and fast.

Is Under Armour still hip and cool? UAA has crashed into a few pieces but 'we can rebuild it' like the Bionic Man. God Speed Colonel Steve Austin that is wearing an Under Armour tee shirt under his astronaut suit. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 and VIX Volatility Daily Charts

It has been party time for bulls since the April bottom. Be careful if you venture off to Big Town to party since you will end up begging your honey to take you back like Roy found out. One way to verify the bullish joy is seeing the SPX make higher highs in price as the VIX sinks to lower lows. The party was in full swing through August but September is a different animal so far.

The stock market is in orgy mode catapulting to the moon tagging the all-time record high at SPX 6600 on Friday with everybody and his bro throwing money at any stock with a heartbeat. Everything may come to a big climax on Wednesday afternoon with the Fed rate decision and Chairman Powell presser.

If it is a joy fest after Pope Powell flaps his dovish wings, watch the VX to see if it prints a lower low than late August (a 13-handle and then a 12-handle), or not. People are starting to look around and realize that everyone is a bull and there may be no one to sell to once the stock market begins dropping. It may be a historic week ahead.

Zager and Evans can tell the future. In the Year 2525, er 2025, everything you think, do and say, is in the pill you took today. You'll pick your sons, daughters too, from the bottom of a long glass tube. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

SPX S&P 500 Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts; Historic Top At Hand Waiting on Federal Reserve Rate Decision

The stock market bullish joy and euphoria continues with new record highs last week. It is the Godot top that refuses to roll over and die. The 6200 to 6600 range is all the action since the end of June. The all-time record high for the S&P 500 is 6600.21 on Friday, 9/12/25. Keystone was handed a "SPX 6.6K" hat but it had a coffee stain on it and it smelled funny. He told the kid to keep it. The SPX all-time closing high is 6587.47 on Thursday, 9/11/25.

The market is news-driven. The turning point was Jackson Hole when Chairman Powell locked-in the quarter-point rate cut for 9/17/25 (this coming Wednesday). The dollar collapsed, gold skyrocketed and equities took off higher celebrating the easy money that is coming that will goose stocks and make the wealthy more filthy rich. Don't you love the crony capitalism filth?

Each time stocks become soggy a new data point performed a stick-save. After Jackson Hole, the jobs report provided a big rally in stocks as traders celebrate a failing economy since that means more easy money from the Fed to goose stocks higher and enrich the wealthy's pockets since they own the stock market. Just think, people want to actually save this corrupt rigged system. Good luck.

Inflation data, the Oracle happy guidance, King Donnie happy talk, the ongoing AI rally, and other rosy optimism fuels the new highs. The handful of bears shorting the market gave up, threw-in the towel, and are now buying NVDA stock and utilities with both fists. It is funny stuff. We can take a look at the charts and see where this mess is at.

The stock market is hanging on, walking on eggshells, from Jackson Hole, to jobs, to inflation data, to stay buoyant into the Fed meeting on hump day this week that will be a circus. Housing Starts, that confirm the ongoing housing recession, are released Wednesday morning before the Fed decision and presser after lunch.

On the daily chart, the tight bands are squeezing a big move higher that is a big surprise. The Monday and Tuesday candlesticks are important because the bears would need to reverse the price action quick to create a large downside squeeze from the tight bands. It is wild stuff with the tight bands telling you that in about a month the SPX will either be at 6800 or down at 6300 (tight bands do not predict direction).

The two price highs to end last week show that negative divergence remains in place continuing to want a spankdown. The MACD is trying to curl higher but remains neggie d over the last few months. The stock market is a piece of crap that refuses to roll over and die. The Joe Retail money is caught up in the hype keeping the bubble inflated reminiscent of the dot-com bubble.

The red rising wedge is ominous and wants to see a collapse in price. The SPX has tagged the upper band so the middle band at 6473 and lower band at 6363 are on the table. The ADX shows that price is not in a strong uptrend despite the healthy rally. The strong trend higher in stocks ended at that late-July drop-off and has never recovered despite the market complacency and euphoria.

The Aroon perfectly illustrates the stock market currently. The green line shows every single bull expects stocks to go up forever. Not a surprise, right? However, the red line shows that every single bear has given up on stocks ever going down and are now expecting stocks to go up forever. Talk about everyone on one side of the boat. Let the festivities begin. With such craziness occurring, a topping out and roll-over may not be on the plate and instead an all-out collapse a la Black Monday or Black Friday, that type of thing, may occur instead.

Did yinz see the new Klarna company that came to market? KLAR jumped to 57 and now back to 42. It is a buy now pay later scam, er, business. Say what?! That is funny. Do you need a clearer signal of a significant top than a buy now pay later scheme hoisted on investor's shoulders and receiving adoring cheers on Wall Street while rose petals are laid on its path forward?

The SPX weekly chart shows two strong weeks on the rate-cut, AI, inflation, Oracle, happy talk but the chart remains in neggie d. It is trying to extend the rally for another week or two with the RSI and MACD.

Traders and investors are all bulled-up heading into the Wednesday Fed decision with a 25-bip cut guaranteed and many expecting 50 and if not, at least a very dovish presser where Powell will promise rate cuts as far as the eye can see. The rich dance with glee, worshipping the crony capitalism system that the peons do not see.

The Aroon on the weekly is just like the daily. On a weekly basis, every bull expects stocks to go up forever and nearly every bear expects stocks to go up forever. The ADX drops to 17, on the weekly basis, verifying that the happy rally is not a strong trend higher. Keep an eye on the RSI and MACD as the new weekly candlestick begins tomorrow morning. Traders expect Powell to be flapping dovish wings on hump day.

For the monthly chart, it is same-o as the daily and weekly time frames. The red rising wedge is bearish wanting to see price collapse on the monthly basis. All the indicators remain in neggie d as traders and investors await Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High on hump day to tell international traders how to trade.

The Aroon on them monthly verifies the rampant stock market complacency and bullish belief that stocks will never go down again. It is remarkable. Every bull believes stocks will go up forever on a monthly basis while nearly all the bears also believe stocks will go up forever in this long-term time frame. Keep an eye on the MACD line. The bulls are fighting like Hell to try and extend the top for another month or two and the MACD, and RSI, will show the way ahead. Remember, it is a monthly candlestick so it will continue to take shape up or down over the next 12 trading days until October begins.

The Keybot the Quant robot remains long the stock market and is tracking banks, copper, commodities and volatility as the key metrics controlling stock market direction currently. The bears likely need to see weaker banks if they want to growl so watch the XLF 52.70 line in the sand identified by the quant. Bulls need stronger copper to keep the upside euphoric rally going. Keystone continues building short positions in the stock market, that are currently underwater.

The expectation remains for a serious drawdown going forward although the analysts (Evercore's Emanuel, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Blackrock's Rieder, Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus, Fundstrat's Lee, Yardeni, CNBC's Cramer, Citi's Chronett, Principal Asset's Shah, Federated Hermes Chiavarone, Oaktree's Marks, Renaissance Macro's deGraaf, JPM is telling everyone to buy the dips going forward, TPW's Pelosky, HSBC's Kettner, Goldman Sach's Kostin, Truist Wealth's Lerner, Deutsche Bank's permabull Binky Chadha, Barclay's and Wells Fargo strategists are bullish, and Wharton Professor Siegel proclaims, "The trend is up.") continue calling for bigtime bullish price targets ahead of 'SPX 7K' and higher telling everyone to buy, buy, buy! Go Your Own Way. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/29/25: The bullishness continues as the SPX chops sideways at 6600-6700. BMO is the latest to profess big gains for stocks ahead calling for SPX 7K by the end of the year. Keystone is organizing a search party to find out if there are any bears that exist on Wall Street. It is believed that the bears have gone extinct. A government shutdown occurs this evening as the two corrupt political parties squabble.

Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

Lumber Weekly Chart; Lumber Crashes -26% Over Last Month

Lumber prices are crashing lower. Lumber prints a 3-year high on 8/1/25 and then falls backwards from the third story to the cement driveway below. 7 hundo to 520 is a drop of 180 or -26% crash over the last month. Long lumber traders just got smacked across the head with a 2x4.  Lumber was produced and expanded as the tariff drama started months ago. Users wanted to get ahead of price changes. But as time muddles along, with King Trumpski disliking Canadian PM Carney, a trade and tariff war continues.

Lumber is in oversupply now as the demand for new homes lessens; a double-whammy of pain. Interest rates are not low enough to attract home buyers to increase the demand for wood. Sawmills are curbing production. Lots of lumber is stacking-up at the border as Uncle Sam wrestles Paul Bunyan with both making jackasses out of themselves. Common Americans and Canadians are trampled by their boots. Like Mark Twain said, 'Never argue with a fool because onlookers may not be able to tell the difference'.

If King Donnie wants the United States to build, we need Canadian lumber. Dale Carnegie would win friends and influence people but Donnie loses friends and chases people away. Get off my lawn! The US and Canada should work out there differences but everyone is an adult baby nowadays. Lumberjack Song a Monty Python gem. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RTX Raytheon Weekly Chart

Raytheon changed its ticker symbol a while back to RTX. They like to keep their deeds quiet; stealthlike. The chart tells it all. Raytheon is cranking out the Tomahawks non-stop for the newly named Department of War that tossed the Department of Defense letters in the trash. The Raytheon factories must be going 24/7 for the war machine. If you want war, you want Tomahawks. We even launch them from submarines.

Don't forget. You can....... Be the first one in your block to have your son come home in a box, and its one, two, three, what are we fightin' for? Whoppee, we're all gonna die. Country Joe and the Fish could play the same tunes nowadays. Vietnam Song (caution; there is vulgar language at the start of the song). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/30/25: King Donnie proclaims that RTX and LMT should double and even quadruple their capacity to produce missiles. Donnie is thinking war, so he is thinking Tomahawks. Trumpski baits Putin by saying Tomahawks can be supplied to Ukraine. Russia takes the bait and decrees that would be a serious escalation of the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Donnie does not want to give Ukraine Tomahawks, they will have enough firepower to fight Russia, he wanted to get back at Putin for calling him a 'paper tiger'. Trump calls Putin a paper tiger. The fact is that King Donnie is the paper tiger. Trump threatens sanctions against Putin a couple dozen times and balks each time; that is called a paper tiger. Putin is firing missiles and drones at Ukraine killing women, children and the elderly each day; that is not a paper tiger it is a dictator gone mad killing humans with real hardware. The RTX factories are going full tilt and the orange one wants their capacity to expand pronto. RTX stock tags 167.50. LMT is a hair short of 500. Both stocks have gone to the moon as the United States war machine gets ready for the fight ahead.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

The SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross is a key very short term (VST) stock market indicator that is currently projecting an ongoing bull market. You want to watch the 200 EMA support at 6400, call it 6400-6410, since the moving average is sloping higher. If that fails, the stock market will be falling into the abyss.

Back in mid-August, and then again at the start of September (red circles), price threatened to fail at the critical 200 EMA but was stick-saved by the King Donnie happy talk, economic data, and the constant drumbeat of rate-cut easy money coming that will goose stocks higher making the rich richer. Isn't crony capitalism filth fun? Well, if you are wealthy it is.

The SPX and other charts are in full negative divergence across the daily, weekly and monthly time frames. The stock market is going to get ugly going forward but everyone is whistling past the graveyard. Talking heads on the internet and television tell viewers to buy, buy, buy. The put/calls remain in the cellar for an unprecedented amount of time verifying the over the top, uber bullish euphoria and complacency in markets right now. All these bullish folks, which is everyone, needs to be taught a lesson and receive their spanking.

Elon Musk's future pay package is plastered across television screens and would make him a trillionaire. Do you need a better sign of a top? People now expect to be trillionaires. It is comical. Is Elon starting a new political party called the America party? Keystone is starting a new political party, too. Yes, he is calling it the America Par-Tay party. The platform will fight, for the right, to par-tay! The Beasties.

The all-time record high for the S&P 500 is 6532.65 on 9/5/25 and the all-time closing high is at 6502.08 on 9/4/25. Price begins the new week of trading at 6481, the first full week of trading now that the vacation holidays are in the rearview mirror.

Friday's low was 6444 only about 40 points away from testing the 200 EMA support at 6400. This will be a big test this week. Third time is a charm? She will likely come down to the 200 for the bounce or die decision, and die. Inflation data is on tap and the big FOMC meeting is 9/16/25 and 9/17/25 with the rate decision and Chairman Powell press conference on 9/17/25 only eight trading days away. A 25-bip rate cut is fully priced-in.

The expectation going forward is for a big drawdown in stocks. It is a contrarian call since humorously, everyone on Wal Street is bullish, even the bears. What do you think? Black Monday? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

XLF Financials ETF Daily and Weekly Charts; Rising Wedges; Overbot; Negative Divergence

There is something about a Saturday late afternoon early evening and the blues. Country Road by John Mayall. Can you dig it? The large money center banks and financial institutions are topped-out with negative divergence (red lines). Price continues higher as the chart indicators slope lower, negatively, so price will need a spankdown, and so it begins. The banksters will likely lead the broad market lower going forward.

The XLF daily and weekly charts have the same vibe. The red rising wedge patterns are bearish. The red lines show universal neggie d across all indicators for both the weekly and daily time periods. She's toast.

On the daily, price collapses to 53.07, deciding to sit on the important 20-day MA at 53.07, and spend the weekend thinking things over. XLF must bounce, or die, from 53.07. The 50-day MA is 52.67 so watch that support. Watch the RSI and stochastics to see if they stab below 50% into bear territory forecasting continued trouble ahead. Price was a hair away from tagging the upper band at 54.38, it is close enough for gov't work, but XLF may want to try and grab that 54.38 early in the week before it drops in earnest. The expectation is that price will simply continue lower from here.

The ADX on the daily is below 30 for months so there has been NO strong upside trend in XLF on the daily basis for the last half-year. The daily chart is ugly and very bear friendly. The Aroon, for both the daily and weekly charts show that all the bulls expect XLF to go up forever and comically, nearly all the bears also expect it to go up forever. This is a contrarian indicator verifying the uber bullishness, complacency and rampant euphoria in the banks currently. The Uber driver told Keystone that he took an entire paycheck and bot XLF last week and this week he will buy JPM and GS.

The XLF weekly chart is another piece of crap like the daily. Full-blown neggie d so price needs to receive a multi-week smackdown and that has likely just started. The pink box on the ADX shows that XLF was in a strong trend higher during 2024, during the price rally higher, but that petered out in March of this year and the ADX drops into the basement signaling that a strong trend higher is no longer occurring for the last half-year.

Note the volume candlesticks on the weekly showing the 4 distribution weeks since June (blue circles). That is the smart money sloughing off shares to the dumb money, the bag-holdin' sucka's. It's fun. Anal-cysts appear on television telling you to buy, buy, buy, the banks while they are sneaking out the back door selling the bank shares on the corner. 

The banks will likely lead the stock market lower; the XLF and SPX charts are all in neggie d. This is expected to be a massive top right now that is about to implode. The XLF charts above are the large money center banks and the corrupt insurance and reinsurance companies. What about the KRE; the regional banks? Let's take a look.

The KRE weekly chart price is almost, just a whisker away, from matching the high from late last year, perhaps close enough for gov't work, so the chart would be in full neggie d like the XLF above. The KRE daily chart is exactly as the XLF above so it should be spanked going forward. If the reason that traders like the banks is the wider differential in yield spreads as stagflation deepens, so they can make money on loans and other products easier, it is not reflected in the regionals. The XLF and KRE charts are both turds requiring multi-week, and longer, pullbacks.

Keystone is not long or short the banksters right now but obviously the play forward is shorting the banks. Cover the children's ears for this scary statement. The XLF and KRE monthly charts are in full neggie d, like the SPX, reinforcing the forecast that stocks, and banks, will roll over now and trail lower for many weeks and months, perhaps a year or few, ahead. Plan accordingly.

Keystone is the only one sitting on a lawn chair on one side of the boat. Everyone else is on the other side of the boat, they took all the deck chairs, and they are partying without a care in the world. The boat feels like it is starting to rock back and forth. Sheryl has not had much good stuff in recent years but The New Normal is a new one that is dropping and it is a catchy groove. You're gonna wake up some day, to a robot that's in your place, like all the predictions say. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Chart; US Labor Recession is 2 Years Along and Counting

The US labor recession is now 2 years old and counting but no one will be providing a birthday cake for this b*stard. Americans are starting to experience layoffs, the nice way of saying you're fired, across all industries. Companies are getting rid of the dead weight in the first round of layoffs. Companies will start cutting the loyal dedicated employees as the weeks and months play out. Companies are telling workers to get back into the office if not already. The COVID-19 party-time of WFH (working from home) is over.

Humorously, there are anecdotal stories that bosses are asking workers to come back into the office but they say 'no can do' because they moved to a different city or even out of state thinking that they could work from home indefinitely. That is funny. What a crazy world.

If you are working from home in your slippers and bathrobe, you best take a shower and put on some clean clothes and start commuting to work again, otherwise, you will be at the top of the layoff list for the next round. Other employees sense the pending slowness in the economy and begin kissing the bosses *ss more frequently plus providing dirt on other workers hoping their coworkers will be laid off first. This is when employees that chose to get married and have kids will tell single workers that they should get laid off first because they do not have a family (even though the married dude is a worthless garbage employee).

We are in the layoff window now September and October. Back in the 1980's, companies would sh*t-can you in mid-November; they did not care. The bad publicity that companies would then receive, however, kicking poor Timmy the family man out into the street days before Thanksgiving, made managers think twice about how they administer layoffs when business turns south.

Generally, nowadays, companies will avoid laying off workers after November 1 because they do not want to be labeled as a Scrooge ruining the family's holidays. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the fun parties, if you are working and worried about your job, you just have to keep your job for 8 more weeks, if so, you are probably safe in your position until a big round of layoffs will occur in January to begin the new year. So put on your beggin' pads, kneel, and start kissing the bosses arse.

The loss of migrant workers is another ongoing mess especially in the heart of harvest season right now. Who will pick the fruit and vegetables and harvest the corn? Or cook meals? Or clean dirty sheets? Or scrub toilets? Make beds? Carry bags? Wait on tables? King Donnie and his gang are arresting every short person they see. No wonder the landscaper has not returned Keystone's phone calls.

The next couple employment reports may finally show the spike higher in the unemployment rate that typically happens to kick off a deterioration in the labor market. Workers are walking on eggshells this month (September) and next (October) hoping the boss does not call them in on the carpet, because they know they will be handed a pink slip and told to get out within 15 minutes.

The employee will say, "But boss, I was a loyal employee the last few years and even blew-off my kid's soccer games a birthday party to meet your deadlines." The boss will say, "Thank you for kissing my *ss all those years, now pack up your family photos, half-dead houseplant, and change for the soda machine, and get the Hell out." Many of you young folks will realize how your employer does not give a rat's behind about you, your family or your life, even though they told you so (just to get more productive work out of you). Welcome to the real world.

The 4.3% unemployment rate announced yesterday compares back to last August  and then back to late 2021 emphasizing its elevated status. Further, the blue line is moving more up and away from the red line forecasting a higher likelihood of more trouble ahead (a higher rate).

The 25-bip rate cut is fully priced in for the FOMC meeting decision on 9/17/25 and even a smidge of a 50-bip offering. With the 4.3% unemployment rate and likely rising, the markets are pricing in rate cuts for 9/17/25, 10/29/25, and 12/10/25 (three cuts; one at each of the last 3 meetings this year). Does it matter that much? No.

As the likely overall recession arrives with stocks dropping and the AI bubble popping, a few basis points lower in rates will not be much of an incentive to keep the spending going. Worse, if stagflation expands, with the jobs picture worsening at the same time Donnie's tariff Trumpflation (inflation) increasing, it will be lights-out. King Donnie, King Cry-Baby, is in trouble because the excessive food prices, electricity and insurance costs, and other prices, are destroying people's lives and attitudes. Trump has failed at reducing prices.

Looking forward to the 10/3/25 Monthly Jobs Report, a 4.1% rate would be fantastic news since it would finally signal a jobs recovery starting after this 2-year labor recession. However, this is not likely. A 4.2% rate on 10/3/25 will maintain the labor recession. So will a 4.3% rate and obviously anything higher. It may take the jump move to 4.4% or 4.5% and that will cause people to start using the R word everyday forward (recession).

Go back and study Keystone's article and chart from the last jobs report to understand the jobs picture in greater detail. As expected, King Donnie blames the weak job numbers on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering rates. That is the reason for the orange head attacking the Fed over the last 3 months; he is setting the Fed up to be scapegoats if the economy and stocks fall off a cliff. Don't you idiots know how Donnie operates by now? The labor recession is likely worsening. This time it will be No More Mr Nice Guy. 

Note Added Wednesday, 9/10/25, at 12:49 PM EST: The BLS released the revised headline jobs numbers for the yearly period from April 2024 through March 2025 and about a million jobs are lost or 83K per month. Each month, the headline number was about 80K higher than it should have been. Thus, the rate cuts going forward are a lock since the labor market is far weaker than anyone believed. Finally, everyone is catching up to Keystone. We have been in a labor recession for 2 years, folks. The revision one year ago was over 800K less jobs and the final-final revision was below 600K so when the final-final is released for the one million job loss in January, it will probably be in the 700K-ish range that is still an additional loss of about 60K jobs per month. Anyone following markets expected this. The 800K number last year was more of a shock than the 1 million yesterday. Keystone told you to follow the unemployment rate, that is what Chairman Powell is watching, because no matter what the jobs numbers, the rate will still pick up and display the same trend. In other words, if you decrease all the rates above by say, 0.1% each month, you still have the same basic chart and we would still be in a 2-year labor recession. The headline jobs numbers are becoming a complete joke and King Donnie's criticism of all the data that does not paint him in a good light only adds to the confusion and likely trouble ahead. The headline jobs numbers for the last few months may be all negative once the future revisions are known next year. Donnie Trump has been known to be in charge of the economy going forward since last November's election, and then installed as POTUS in January, now 10 months along. Is the full-blown recession, that is hiding in the bushes, finally sneaking in the back door? Hello, honey, it's Johnny, I'm home.