CPI Inflation and GTX Commodities Charts In Sync

The inflation drama continues. Since services inflation has been subdued this year, goods inflation is more important in determining the path forward for overall inflation. The GTX and CRB commodities charts are a reflection of goods inflation and are moving in sync with the CPI inflation data.

Inflation dropped into Last September and then ramped higher into and through the election when King Donnie Trump was placed back on the crony throne. Americans did not want to vote for a cackling communist, or woman for that matter, so the orange one won by default. Inflation continued higher into the start of this year and looked like it would continue higher but alas, it started dropping into springtime as per the GTX chart.

Of course the Bloviator-in-Chief bragged that inflation was falling solely because he was elected and in office. However, inflation bottomed in April and is moving higher ever since. That is why the orange head does not brag about lower inflation anymore except for the occasional lie he or his sycophants try to slip into an interview or conversation. Americans smell bull sh*t because they go to the grocery store every few days and are horrified at the cost of food. At the same time, utility bills run higher because of the AI need for power. No one cared about supplying electricity to poor rural areas but all the stops are pulled out to take care of the AI garbage. Such is crony America.

Anyhoo, the charts are sync showing commodity prices rising and falling and the inflation data agreeing. Wouldn't life be simple, and less stressful for the Federal Reserve, if the trend of the two charts could be followed and the upcoming rate decision for 9/17/25 (two-day meeting 9/16 and 9/17) should be child's play. Rocky Top. All I know is its a pity, life can't be simple again.

Note that commodities ran higher into June corresponding to the CPI but has since stuttered sideways like the drunk last night in Times Square. Commodities are in a sideways choppy funk for the last 2 months and lo and behold, so is inflation.

The green channel shows the GTX dropping over the last month that would automatically make you think the next CPI print will come in at 2.6% a tick lower. However, the sideways blue channels remain in play and price has not broken down yet from that descending triangle pattern since June (a bearish pattern where price usually collapses from but the pattern is sloppy with only 2 baseline touches so it does not hold a lot of weight). 

The thin purple lines move from the lower left to the upper right hinting that the trend in higher commodities prices should continue. It is a wonder that the Fed members are not all bald because they must be pulling their hair out thinking about the cross-currents. GTX (goods inflation) is at a critical juncture so expect fireworks next week. It is testing two key trend lines and almost 3 months of price support. The stakes are high, it is time to bounce or die.

The problem for the Fed is that they will have one more inflation report but it will likely reflect a slight pullback in inflation. That does not mean the inflation worries are over and a downtrend is beginning again. You have to wait to see where the GTX and CRB charts want to go.

GTX is a bit soggy since the June top, with CPI inflation sideways, so that hints that services inflation may be perking up again. This may play out in the next report where goods inflation backs off a smidge, as the right hand of the GTX chart shows, but is negated by slightly rising services inflation (as people, especially the wealthy that raped the country over the last 5 decades, enjoy summer travel and entertainment). In other words, another flat CPI reading at 2.7% may occur and that will not help Chairman Powell and his gang make the rate decision on 9/17/25.

Let's take a look at the GTX charts and see what may be going on. The 2-hour chart appears to be bottoming and wanting to recover higher. The daily chart shows the descending triangle vibe easier and as price slumps, the chart is more agreeable to a sideways move and some buoyancy in price. The stochastics are oversold agreeable to a move higher in the daily timeframe. The weekly chart stutters sideways and the 20-wk MA at 3710 and 50-wk MA at 3675 are moving sideways acting as future support. Price dropped to 3708 testing the 20 with a bounce or die decision and boiiiinnngg, price bounces recovering to 3739 after the first test of this critical support. The monthly chart looks like a continued sideways funk. The CRB weekly chart is more negative with price below its critical moving averages and currently back-kissing the 50 at 295 for a bounce of die decision this week.

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? Not much, but the charts hint that the GTX and CRB should experience some buoyancy going forward on the daily basis but remain wedded to the overall sideways funk posture on the weekly basis. If the globe is slipping into worldwide recession, demand will continue falling and will actually pressure prices lower. The Fed should likely weigh the services inflation heavier for the next rate decision.

With a major stock market top occurring as per the rampant complacency, euphoria and neggie d on the SPX charts, the commodities would be expected to fall in sync, and along with the labor recession that is now 2 years along, with a rising unemployment rate (we will see on 9/5/25), a September cut of 25 bips is likely. You would think it is priced into the stock market but equities rally each time Trump or Bessent sneezes and it sounds like they said rate cut.

The goods inflation is predicted by the GTX and CRB charts, however, as fate would dictate, a sideways funk in the chart does not provide clarity. You have to wait and see which side she breaks. The wealthy's consumer spending, that has helped prevent the overall US recession (America has been in a housing, manufacturing and labor recession for 2 years but this negativity is overcome by the wealthy's ongoing consumer spending and the AI-bubble hype), cannot go on forever. After several vacation trips flying to fancy locations, and spa treatments, and buying a $20K refrigerator, and supporting their lazy adult children, and treating themselves to a new Mercedes convertible, the wealthy may tighten the purse strings.

The Fed decision will likely depend on the jobs report in 3 weeks since the inflation data is choppy sideways. If the stock market rolls over in this time period, and it is expected, perhaps the argument will be over a 25 or 50-bip cut come mid-September? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.