USD US Dollar Daily and Weekly Charts; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Falling Wedges

This week we find out if the dollar shorts panic and create an epic and historic short-covering rally. Keystone posted the dollar and gold charts previously if you want to scroll back and read that analysis. The MACD on the weekly chart was not yet possie d so price played around for a while, printing a 96-handle, and now popping to 97.87.

The shorts are not convinced of any rally happening anytime soon. The dollar shorts are looking to put on more shorts. They are going to end up soiling their shorts. Both the dialy and weekly charts are set up with universal positive divergence across all chart indicators as price made new lows and the possie d launch higher has started. The falling green wedge patterns are bullish.

On the daily chart, you can see the indicators are long and strong wanting more higher highs in dollar price on the daily basis so any pullback should not be significant. The dollar plays around at the support/resistance at the 20-day MA at 97.73 so it is time to bounce, or die. The charts say bounce and continue a multi-day and multi-week rally ahead.

The black circle shows the death cross and the dollar rallies after it occurs, as Keystone has talked about many times (the opposite of what television a-holes say), and the dollar then rolled over and died so the death cross was a good predictor of the weakness ahead. Note how price hit its head on the 50-day MA resistance, now at 98.88, during May and June but was spanked back down. That means when price punches up through the 50, the shorts are going to get squeezed by their short hairs and start screaming to cover. The 98.88 resistance is bigtime important.

The weekly chart shows the blue channel at 100-106. Three of the moving averages are converging at 103 so that would be quite a site if the dollar catapulted higher due to a short-covering squeeze and popped to 103 in only a couple-three weeks time or sooner. That would be fun to watch. Gold will likely soften as the dollar rallies.

Taking into account the critical 98.88, call it 99, and there is strong price resistance at 99 and one hundo, the stage is set. Keystone is not playing the currencies now long or short including the dollar. The Heat Is On this summer with the relentless humidity. It is so hot, Keystone saw a dog chasing a cat, and they both were walking. Perhaps this week the heat will be on the dollar as the shorts are squeezed? What do you think? The dollar may experience a historic rocket launch to the moon this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day, 7/16/25, at 6:08 AM EST: The US dollar rises to 98.56 off the 98.63 high. The 50-day MA resistance is at 98.81 only pennies away. That is likely where the dollar shorts will panic and also where the robots may abandon short positions through programmed trading. On the daily chart, the stochastics are way overbot so a pullback for a couple days would not be surprising but the MACD and histogram remain long and strong wanting more highs in the daily timeframe. The weekly chart is off the bottom and pointing to a sustainable multi-week rally ahead. The dollar is receiving its possie d rocket launch. The dollar shorts are clenching their buttocks.

Note Added Monday Morning, 7/21/25, at 5:34 AM EST: USD is at 98.27 and printed at 98.90 last week testing the 50-day MA resistance now at 98.66 and inching lower. The battle continues.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/30/25, at 6:26 PM EST: The USD pops to 99.90 with a HOD at 99.98 after the Chairman Powell press conference and rate decision to remain on hold with rates, as expected, the 10-year yield now sits at 4.37%. The dollar is moving higher for 5 straight weeks so the analysts, the anal cysts, are all backpedaling on their dollar short calls assigning many different reasons for the recovery in the dollar. We all know what the reason is for the dixie rally, right? Yes, positive divergence rocket launched the dollar. Everything else you hear is dribble. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.