Oppenheimer's permabull chief strategist, John Dufus, er Stoltzfus, receives the honorary Irving Fisher award. Stoltzfus changes his SPX target for the third time this year now claiming that SPX will hit 7100 in the weeks and months ahead. The call is the same as Irving Fisher proclaiming that stocks are sitting on a permanently high plateau with no fear of dropping--right before the 1929 stock market crash. It is hilarious stuff.
Strategist Mike Wilson, a born-again permabull, laughs at the SPX 7100 target decreeing that 7200 will occur before the middle of next year (that would be an 80-point gain in the S&P 500 every month forward for the next 10 consecutive months). The bullishness remains off the charts during this two-month topping process. We can give both men the honorary Irving Fisher award.
Don't these dolts look at charts? Obviously, not. The SPX monthly chart remains in full negative divergence across all chart indicators forecasting a historic top currently that will begin a multi-month and likely multi-year move lower for US stocks. Friday is most important because a new candlestick will begin for the monthly chart and provide more insight into this historic AI Bubble top.
The SPX prints a new all-time record high today, 7/29/25, at 6409.26, but the all-time closing high remains at 6389.77 on 7/28/25. Today was an outside reversal day on the daily chart a bad omen going forward.
The AI Bubble now is a repeat of the Dot-Com Bubble in 1999/2000. If you dare hint that you are bearish, you will be shouted down, ridiculed, and drawn and quartered for such blasphemy! It is the same exact vibe in 1999 and 2008/2009. It is fun to watch. Keystone thinks of Larry Wachtel during the dot-com top warning folks on television to get out because the stock market is making a major top. He was laughed at and ridiculed although no one could dislike Larry; he was a great dude. And he was the only one that was right.
The SPX daily, weekly and monthly charts remain in full neggie d calling-out a historic stock market top. The rampant complacency and bullish euphoria has not been addressed for two months running due to King Donnie pumping stocks with daily happy tariff talk and Pope Powell ready to cut rates, but not tomorrow.
The MACD is trying to squeeze-out some more upside on a weekly basis but even if it moves higher, it would only extend the top another week or two. Even if an indicator on the monthly chart would manage to print a higher high, it would only result in a jog move of a month or two to again print the epic top we are now experiencing. Get out of your longs and let that capital sit in your brokerage account for the next few months or longer, at least until 2026. Go to the beach. If you stay engaged on the long side, your LT buy and hold strategy is going to get shoved up your arse.
The only thing that can improve the picture is Chairman Powell tomorrow, or the yearnings from four big tech companies this week, or the Jobs Report on Friday, but like the previous paragraph states, you are only talking incremental moves to extend the top before she collapses.
It will be interesting to see if Powell can pull a rabbit out of his hat tomorrow. A rate cut is not expected; it sure would be a shock if he went for it. The key will be his presser and how dovish he is for a September cut. The focus on the Jobs Report will be the unemployment rate.
The table is set. Stoltzfus and Wilson are the standard bearers of the Irving Fisher legacy proclaiming that stocks are at a permanently high plateau and can only go higher above SPX 7K and far higher. Both men have already ordered SPX 7K hats that are sitting in two cardboard boxes in the lobby. Stoltzfus will likely lower his SPX target in a couple months.
Black Wednesday? If stocks collapse, they typically never bottom on a Wednesday so any weakness in equities tomorrow would forecast further weakness ahead. Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market (Keybot the Quant algorithm) but the technicals say get out if you are holding longs (The Keystone Speculator's charts). Everyone is waiting for tomorrow. Today. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/30/25, at 6:06 PM EST: After the smoke clears from the Chairman Powell press conference and rate decision to remain on hold with rates, as expected, the 10-year yield now sits at 4.37%. The SPX pulls back a hair to 6362. The 20-day MA support is at 6299 so that would be the first test on the downside.
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