SPX S&P 500 and CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand

The stock market topping drama continues. It was mid-January, 3 weeks or so ago, when Keystone first pointed out the low put/call ratios signaling rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market signaling a substantial top. The SPX tops out on 1/28/25 at 6128.18 the all-time record high.

Price is spanked lower due to the rampant market euphoria but the dip-buyers waste no time to jump back into the stock market. The Donnie Trump tariff bluster without bite, AI happy talk, and Fed maintain buoyant stocks.

The CPC comes down again late January to highlight the lower top in the SPX and stocks go down again but the whole move off the record high is only about 130 points. That is nothing compared to what you expect for such rampant complacency. It is a mere pittance as the waiter says when Keystone leaves a tip.

The rampant complacency and excessive euphoric bullishness is comical. One trader is throwing darts at the stock pages and buying whatever tickers are hit. Another investor hired a monkey to point at the stock pages to pick stocks. The Uber driver, doorman, shoeshine boy, Joe Sixpack, Carmelita Sucka and Antoine Bagholder decided to form an investment group and their brain trust just went triple-leveraged long the stock market. Young folks that own homes are grabbing-up home equity lines and then buying leveraged ETF's with the money to take advantage of easy stock market gains that will go up forever. That never ends well.

As an aside, the ETF house of cards is about to come into play. Keystone has been warning about it the last few years. Everybody and his bro, even Uncle Schmo, and drunkard Joey, are long the market using ETF's. Mutual funds and all that jive is so passe, like heroin, so ETF's are the favorite flavor nowadays. The massive amount of money in the ETF's is mind-boggling and guess what? It can all disappear with a key stroke. In the old days, you would call the broker and wait a day or more before positions were sold but now it is done in a millisecond--by everyone!! When this baby starts flushing, it is going to be a sight if the ETF holders all panic. It will be a blast and fun to watch; the fear and panic in people's eyes as they lose their shirts; it is priceless.

Stocks recover again over the last couple weeks only due to the hype talk since technically the charts are spent. The SPX prints a high on Friday at 6127.47 only 71 pennies from a new record high. That was so close why didn't it just print?

This is a very atypical topping pattern. The SPX is expected to lose from 200 to 800 points going forward, maybe more. This should be in the process of playing out now but Pope Powell, King Donnie, and Emperor Jensen are conspiring to pump stock prices to the sky to help themselves and their greedy friends to as much money as possible.

She is going to fall big starting anytime. The last 3 weeks of baby games are pretty much played out. Save yourself. If you are long, you are going to get your face ripped off. US markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day. Maybe a Black Tuesday? On Tuesday Afternoon we will see what futures are past. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 2/19/25, at 4:39 AM EST: Black Tuesday was too shy to come out of the bushes. Chips were in a good mood to begin the holiday-shortened week driving the SPX to a new all-time record high at 6129.63 and new all-time closing high at 6129.58. The SPX daily chart prints a hanging man candlestick hinting that a trend change cometh. Almost....... Now! ... Sell!  It is fun to watch; lambs joyfully walking to slaughter.

Not Added Friday Evening, 2/21/25: The week ends with a mini-Black Friday. Where's Freddy Chopin. Hey Chopin! There he is. Get over there to the piano and play your tune Freddy. The SPX tops-out at the all-time record high at 6147 on 2/19/25, hump day, and then falls on its sword yesterday and today, collapsing to 6013, sitting on the 50-day MA at 6010 for the weekend to think things over. Price must bounce or die from 6010-6013 come Monday morning. The 200 MA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 6047, an excellent ST and VST direction indicator, ruptures today turning the stock market into a short-term and very short-term bear market (days or weeks). The S&P 500 has fallen -2.2% off the all-time record top so far; that isn't anything. Bears need chips to fail next to get the ball rolling to the downside. If you bring up the SPX 2-hour chart, you see universal neggie d across all indicators as the all-time high printed so a neggie d spankdown was on tap. Ditto the daily chart. Ditto the weekly chart that Keystone had posted. The weekly chart has turned down from the top and is starting to receive the negative divergence smack down on the weekly basis that means the selling will go on for a while Into March. Look for a back kiss of the 6047 since it is key resistance, and price should show it respect, and the SPX will make a bounce or die decision from here. If the SPX comes up and back kisses the 6047 and begins falling again (successful back test), she is going to start falling like a rock. Watch utilities since weakness in utes forecasts stocks to drop a long ways but if UTIL moves above 1031, bulls will still have game.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: The SPX and US stock market explodes as described above. Stocks sell off with traders running for their lives. Equities remain weak. SPX collapses to 5861. The neggie d spankdown on the SPX weekly basis in progress with the S&P 500 down about 3 hundo points off the top so far.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 7:42 AM EST: Stocks puke yesterday since the bulls continue to need taught a lesson for being too complacent. Don't panic! Don't panic! The SPX loses 105 points, -1.8%, to 5850. It's Beautiful! Even yesterday, as stocks collapse, face after face on business television said it is a buying opportunity. People are still not panicked or fearful at all. The big bull party continue without a care in the world despite the SPX teasing the 5700's yesterday. These are some of the same people calling for SPX 7K and higher this year. The CPC edges higher to 0.94 and CPCE is at 0.64. Burp. Belly scratch. Yawn. No one is worried at all, thus, the beatings will continue until moral improves.