Stocks receive the start of the neggie d spankdown on the daily basis previously explained. Equities are slapped .... like little Luka was slapped around in the 1980's. He lived on the 2nd floor. The SPX drops 63 points yesterday, -1.4%, to 4513. Volatility spiked causing the weakness. VIX 15.86 is a key bull/bear line in the sand called out by the Keybot the Quant robot. Bulls have no hope going forward unless they can push VIX back below 15.86.
The indicators remain weak and bleak so more downside in price is expected on the daily basis. Price stopped at the 20-day MA at 4517, which is also the middle band, and is deciding to bounce or die. S&P futures are down -15 but stocks may muddle today since AAPL and AMZN yearnings drop this evening and the all-important US Monthly Jobs Report is released in only 25 hours.
Price gaps lower off the top so it may have to go back up at some point to fill the gap above, maybe today or tomorrow. The orange circles show some gaps below that are ..... all together now ..... big enough to drive a truck through. They will need revisited going forward.
You can see how price was above the moving average ribbon, like mid-June, and required a mean reversion lower further helping to bring price down. The 4450 is price support so that may be a stopping point. The lower band is also in play which is forming a confluence with the rising 50-day MA at 4394 so this is in play as well.
Keep an eye on the SPX weekly chart to see if it is topping out with negative divergence which will confirm a multi-week down move ahead. The utes remain in failure which is a bad omen for stocks going forward. The 4200-ish level is solid price support and may be tested going forward. The tech earnings and jobs report data are needed to plot the course ahead. Keybot the Quant flipped short so it will be interesting to see if the robot remains short of if it whipsaws back to the long side.
The Fitch credit rating downgrade caused a lot of commotion. Will S&P or others downgrade US debt as well?
King Donnie's orange head will be on display today as stocks go into the closing bell. Trump has to appear in court to answer for his latest shenanigans. It is sickening listening to the cheerleaders in both corrupt political parties argue their cases. The republicans say Trump should be treated leniently because nothing happened to Clinton or Biden. Think about that. Do you need a clearer definition for the privileged elite never wanting to answer for their deeds? The correct answer is to prosecute and throw them all in jail. Americans now pledge allegiance to their dirtbag political tribes above the United States as a whole. Such is the crony capitalism system in its final throes.
Do not shed any tears for the orange headed bloviating carnival clown. Trump brought a lot of his troubles on himself. Just think, after the failed 2020 election, if King Donnie would have simply congratulated Biden and left office with the transition teams doing a good job, he would actually be in a great position for the November 2024 election with the country probably backing and rallying behind him (people want relief from inflation).
Instead, the orange head had to be a sniveling conniving little twit unwilling to concede the election to Sleepy Joe. Trump's whining cry baby sore loser stuff led to the Capitol Hill riot. King Cry Baby. The riot would have never occurred if Trump would have accepted his loss and moved on to fight another day. Instead, he ruined his future due to his baby behavior. Trump deserves everything that is coming at him and do not buy the line that he is fighting a cause for the American people. That is dribble. Donnie only cares about one person in life; Donnie.
Some of us older folks remember how Trump screwed the Atlantic City casino workers, middle-class families all; he laughed about it. Karma has a way of coming around even decades later. The dirty secret that Americans do not understand about Trump is that his father always told him that he would be a worthless piece of sh*t and garbage if he ever lost at anything (sports, business, etc...). Can you imagine what went through that orange head after losing the election, the biggest game in town, to Sleepy Joe Biden? In his mind, his dad was standing over him, with pointed finger, calling him garbage and trash for losing.
Even pushing 80, childhood events stick with you your whole life. You carry that cross throughout the decades; it is mental baggage. Trump could not accept the election loss because every morning he sees his dad's face in the mirror calling him a worthless piece of crap because he lost. His dad is ashamed that he has a useless loser for a son. You're a loser. No, no, daddie, I won, they cheated me, see I won daddie, look they miscounted votes, see daddie, the voting machines were rigged, too, I really won daddie, dead people voted daddie, see, I won, I'm King Donnie. What a twisted orange head.
Donnie is in a heap of trouble and needs to go away for the sake of the nation. Neither Trump nor Biden will be the candidates for president next year. The next president will pardon Donnie's orange butt so he does not have to worry too much about the lawsuits no matter what the outcomes. Biden should be the one worrying since his alleged crimes of bribery and selling access are far more serious and would require mandatory jail time. Human greed destroys everything. It always did throughout world history and always will. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Saturday, 8/5/23: The SPX falls through the 20-day MA at 4526 and then back kisses, ending in failure. If you bring up the daily chart, as price falls printing lower lows, the RSI drops into bear territory below 50%. The other indicators are weak and bleak wanting to see lower SPX prices on the daily basis. This behavior places the lower standard deviation band at 4432 and the rising 50-day MA at 4407 on the table. There's a juicy gap at 4440-4460 that needs filled. The bulls broke their halo's. If you bring up the SPX 2-hour chart, all the indicators are positively diverged as price prints the new low. The SPX wants to bounce now in the 2-hour time frame probably from 4440-4478, more specifically, probably from 4465-4478, starting sometime Monday morning. Typically, one of the indicators on the daily chart would be possie d as well to conspire with the 2-hour but not this time. The SPX remains very weak in the daily time frame. If you bring up the weekly chart, this is the big enchilada that dictates if the top is in on the weekly basis, which would be a big deal. She's good to go on the downside, folks. After the big 4-month AI, Fed and inflation data orgy in the stock market, it is time to jump ship on the long side and play short for the multi-week down move about to begin. Can stocks still float a bit higher? Of course, especially since the chart technicians this weekend at the Federal Reserve are telling Pope Powell what is happening. Positive news may delay the top for a week or two but the news would be absorbed and the neggie d reappear. It will be interesting to see how far down the multi-week retreat takes the stock market. The failure in the utilities says stocks are going to take a serious fall over the coming weeks, way, way down, a bloody carnage-ridden path lower. Plan accordingly. Some analysts are getting worried since a few came out yesterday mentioning a retracement to SPX 4300 may occur but that would be a buying opportunity. The SPX will likely drop into that 4200-4300 zone and bounce from the dip-buyers but then stocks will likely roll over again to seek the lower 3800-4200 range and a retest of the 3500-3600 lows is on the table by the end of the year. The SPX monthly chart is playing coy and may have one more bump higher after the multi-week rally plays out, say in the September/October time frame, but then potentially crash into year-end. No need to guess; the charts will provide the answer and enough warning to position properly. Nothing can change the path ahead except positive news either from the Federal Reserve or geopolitical or otherwise. Negative news will obviously exacerbate the negative forecast on the daily and weekly charts sending stock prices sharply lower faster. Thus, stocks will bottom on Monday morning and rally the rest of the day into Tuesday (on the hourly basis) but then roll over again and die going forward due to the negativity in the daily and weekly timeframes. Plan accordingly.
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