SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

The SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross is a key VST (very short-term) trading signal. Price respects this line in the sand as shown by the back kisses in recent days, and price is unable to push above until now.

Yesterday, price explodes higher as traders and investors believe the Federal Reserve may be done hiking rates. Traders and investors are tripping over each other to buy stocks at the ask believing that equities will rally bigtime since rates will no longer increase to stifle the economy.

The SPX catapults higher in an upside orgy so obscene it would make Caligula blush. Price leaps up through the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 4448 like it wasn't even there (actually, you can see how price stuttered exactly at the 200 for an hour before it then jumped higher). Price made the bounce or die decision at the back test of 4448 and bounce was the outcome with bulls throwing confetti.

Since the key 200 EMA is so important, price will need to come back down to 4448 for a back kiss to show it respect and to make another bounce or die decision. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/7/23 at 8:52 AM EST: There's the back kiss. The SPX drops yesterday to 4442 and closes at 4465 sitting on the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 4464. Price is making the bounce or die decision at this critical line in the sand and by the looks of the S&P futures down -30 points this morning (the regular session opens in one-half hour), die appears to be on the table.

Note Added 9/11/23 at 10:10 AM EST: The SPX continues the battle above and below the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 4463. Price is now at 4475. It will make a decision this week.

Note Added 9/14/23, Thursday morning, at 8:35 AM EST: The SPX is at 4467 and the 200 EMA on the 60-minute is at 4465. The tension mounts.

NVDA NVIDIA Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

NVIDIA is cooked. Stick a fork in it. The earnings release and continuing AI orgy party provides additional joy for the bulls over the last couple weeks, but the better trade going forward is short on the weekly basis.

NVDA CEO Jensen Huang is the jackass that was holding up the NVIDIA AI black boxes and chips at an event expecting the audience to kneel and worship the new AI god; a false idol. Jensen likes the limelight. You know, Jesus walked on water, and perhaps Jensen wants to do a little walking too, as Charlie and the band played.

The NVDA weekly chart is toast. Price continues printing new highs but ALL the chart indicators are in negative divergence even the ADX line. There is no more fuel in the gas tank to take price higher on the weekly basis. In addition, the RSI, stochastics and money flow are at or coming off overbot conditions agreeable to a pullback. The red rising wedge is a bearish chart pattern.

Price has also violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA at 395, is on the table as well as the lower band at 259. The blue lines show price support at 390-400 which lines up with the rising 20-wk MA at 395 so this confluence will act as a magnet for price as the pending multi-week down move kicks-in.

The ADX pink box verifies that the upside rally is a strong trend higher, however, as mentioned above, you can see that the ADX turns neggie d as price makes the new high, so there is downside in the ADX going forward. The strong trend higher would be officially over once the ADX falls out of the pink box at 30-ish. This always lags the price action.

The Aroon verifies the off-the-charts uber euphoric bullishness in NVIDIA. Traders are tripping over each other to buy NVDA at the ask. The taxi cab driver, Uber driver, shoeshine boy and doorman all said they are triple-leveraged long NVDA on full margin expecting huge returns ahead. Every market needs sucka's and fools, folks. No wonder they drive cars, shine shoes, and open doors for people; they will be doing that a long time after they lose their shirts on NVDA.

The Aroon green bullish line is near 100% so all the bulls believe that NVDA will keep going up and up. The Aroon red bearish line is near zero so all the bears also believe that NVDA will go up forever going forward. It's funny. Same-o stuff occurs every time. The Aroon is a contrary indicator so a negative cross will likely occur as price receives the neggie d spankdown on the weekly basis.

So NVDA is garbage on a weekly basis. How about other time frames? Remember, trading is playing 5-dimensional chess and the dimensions are minutes, hours, days, weeks and months. You know that NVDA will roll over and die on the weekly basis going forward. Can you time the top better since the weekly chart tells you it may top out anytime over the coming days or week or two and begin the multi-week down move?

If you bring up the daily chart, price is chopping up and down after the happy earnings release. The daily chart is also in neggie d so NVDA is cooked in the daily time frame. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 448 and lower band at 410 are on the table.

If you bring up the 2-hour chart, more neggie d, but the stochastics have a bit more oomph. Thus, mixing the charts together and sprinkling on some magic voodoo dust, she should top out today, in the coming hours, probably this morning before munchtime.

If you are long NVDA, especially if you bot the stock after listening to an *sshole on television or the internet, get yourself out before you lose your shirt. If you made profits, be happy, cash it in and flip the position short.

If you bring up the monthly chart, the RSI is neggie d which will conspire with the weekly chart to send price lower. The stochastics are overbot and neggie d ditto the money flow. However, the MACD line and histogram remain long and strong wanting to see another high in NVDA on the monthly basis. This feeds the narrative that NVDA is a good long-term play. The jury is out on that idea, and the hyped-up AI stuff, but NVDA will want to come back up for another matching or higher high in price after the multi-week down move ends.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, thus, NVDA will begin a multi-week down move now likely targeting 390-450, say through September, but then price will recover and come all the way back up again, say, in October/November (the charts will tell you the timing so there is no need to guess) to satisfy the strength remaining in the monthly time frame, and then top-out on the monthly basis with universal neggie d, then it is likely lights-out for NVIDIA on a long-term basis. At that point, as this year comes to an end, say October-ish or maybe early November, NVDA will begin a multi-month down move likely ending in a 2 handle during 2024. That's the roadmap so plan accordingly depending on your risk tolerance and trading time frames.

As usual, Keystone does not get invited to the fancy parties because he brings a wet blanket. Silicon Valley tech company's strip him of his fleece vest and complimentary AirPods branding him as an outcast forever. Keystone does not hold a position in NVDA long or short currently but obviously would play it on the short side if a position is opened. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/14/23, Thursday morning, at 8:35 AM EST: NVDA drops to 443 and recovers to 455 testing the 50-day MA support/resistance at 453 for a bounce or die decision. The MACD and money flow remain weak and bleak on the daily chart so there is likely a bit more weakness ahead in the daily time frame. MACD and stochastics are bad on the weekly chart so the multi-week trend lower should continue into October.

Note Added 9/16/23, Saturday: NVDA drops -4% last week to a low at 438 ending at 439. Keystone was the only dude that told you the spankdown was on tap for NVDA. Everyone else told you to buy, buy, buy.

Note Added 9/18/23, Monday Morning, at 7:40 AM EST: NVDA drops to 430.95 in the pre-market.

Note Added 9/19/23, Tuesday Morning, at 6:41 AM EST: NVDA drops to 420 yesterday and ends at 440..

Note Added 9/21/23, Thursday Morning, at 10:06 AM EST: NVDA pukes to the 414 palindrome. LOD 412. NVDA crashes -17% off the top thus far in only 15 trading days.

Note Added 9/23/23, Saturday: NVDA is at 416 losing -5.2% on the week. The weekly chart remains weak and bleak. Jester Jensen needs to jump on stage and start waving those AI chip boxes in the air again to try and shore up the bloated stock price. Traders are realizing that the AI hype is not what it is all hyped up about.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the bull side at SPX 4446 as the multi-month choppy whipsaw slop continues. Watch copper and semiconductors.

Keybot the Quant

COVID-19 Endemic Phase Update 8/27/23; Covid Cases Decreasing as 2-Week Old CDC Data Shows a Rise in Hospital Admissions and Hospitalizations; COVID-19 is an Endemic of the Old and Obese

He's baaaaccckkk. Just like a class B horror flick where the monster jumps up one last time for a final scare, Keystone is back with a COVID-19 update. The media is in a tizzy over the latest rise in COVID-19 infections but as usual, Keystone must step in and tell you the truth about what is happening.

K E Stone (Keystone) is the authority in chronicling the 3-year COVID-19 pandemic having posted 103 articles (one new article every 10 days for 3 years) including 900 covid charts and over 1.2 million words. In addition, each article was updated daily to chronicle the latest news then after 10 days another new article would be posted with new charts. The Coronavirus Chronology is the most valuable COVID-19 resource available. There was enough new daily covid information for Keystone to write the equivalent of one new book every 3 months during the pandemic.

Keystone never set out to chronical the entire COVID-19 pandemic; it was quite a labor requiring several hours of writing every day for 3 years but to paraphrase Trotsky's comments on war, 'Keystone was not interested in chronicling the COVID-19 pandemic, but the pandemic was interested in him'. Perhaps for Keystone's 15 minutes of Andy Warhol fame, he will be known as the Father of Technical Analysis for Epidemiology and Virology. Then again, perhaps not.

Keystone predicted and forecasted how long the infection waves would last in the United States and for every country on Earth during the 3-years of misery; hence nearly 1,000 charts sit in the archives. Comically, Keystone, siting on a lawn chair in the Appalachian Mountains, warned many global leaders of impending infection waves and others that their waves would subside despite their political messages. The Coronavirus Chronology is the China Virus Bible and anyone that wants to learn about what exactly happened every step of the way during the pandemic needs to use it as their first and primary source.

The last article is Coronavirus Chronology Article 103 published on Valentines Day, 2/14/23, and linked here. That will get you started on how the articles are set up and how it would be easy for you to archive prior articles to find out the details of what actually happened during the pandemic in real-time (not made-up history after the fact).

For now, the Coronavirus Chronology only exists on line at The Keystone Speculator's blog site where it can be accessed for free. If you want to know any aspect of the pandemic, no matter what it is or when it occurred, this is the source you need to look at. Perhaps you want to know what Fauci said in November of 2021. Simply go to the right margin of The Keystone Speculator blog site and scroll down to year 2021, then November, and then find the Coronavirus Chronology article that will explain everything that happened with the pandemic back then in exact detail. The important quotes and actions by all individuals are recorded in the Coronavirus Chronology. There could not have been two worst presidents during a once in a century pandemic than Trump and Biden; Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber.

Keystone plans on formally publishing the entire Coronavirus Chronology work of over 1.2 million words and 900 covid charts in the future but obviously this is a formidable task. The first book will be a simple aggregation of all 103 article titles and that should be available in a month. This book will be a key publication for the COVID-19 pandemic since the titles of each article highlight all the important events that happened during the 3 years of misery and will serve as the go-to timeline for the entire pandemic so look for that on Amazon soon (Keystone's goofing-off time is more important currently than publishing a book).

Anyhoo, that brings us to the present. What is happening now considering all the fear-mongering in the US media mainly from the democrat-controlled press (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, NPR, New York Times, Washington Post, etc...)? It is doom and gloom time again since the new COVID-19 booster shots will be available in 3 or 4 weeks. Get the people scared so they run to the local pharmacy to roll up their sleeves and make Pfizer, Moderna, and the politicians, richer.

The republican-controlled media (Fox News, Newsmax, OANN, Breitbart News, AM talk radio, New York Post, etc...) takes the opposite side of the recent covid fear-mongering and warns the public to not get fooled again, as Daltry would sing.

The Worldometer data was far superior to other sources during the pandemic. The presentation of the data is much clearer and concise and their charts are excellent. Starting there, the COVID-19 daily new cases are decreasing not increasing. The covid cases peaked on 8/16/23 at 15575 and are at 7292 yesterday, 8/26/23. It is good news that the peak in cases was 10 days ago since it hints that the latest infection wave may be a pig in a poke.

Shamefully, the incompetent CDC data is 2 weeks old. Yes, pitiful, isn't it? American mediocrity is on full display daily. The cable and broadcast news outlets are spouting this 2-week old data as if it is happening in real-time. The CDC says there is a +22% increase in hospital admissions using the total data and a move from 0.45 to 0.54. There is only a rise of +16% in covid hospitalizations so the corrupt press does not mention this number instead loosely touts the +22% increase making people think this is the increase in infections and cases that the daily new cases chart above debunks. The crony capitalism system has made all institutions untrustworthy.

Some *sshole schools and colleges are reinstating masks and other covid regulations. What morons. These are supposed to be education centers but they have learned nothing from the pandemic or the numerous studies that say the mouth diapers are worthless and may actually cause more overall harm. Folks, sometimes you just cannot fix stupid. If you want to wear a mask, wear one, wear 10 masks, that is cool, but do not ask others to wear one. Grow up.

The authorities will be fear-mongering, and using the democrat media as their surrogates, to create angst and encourage people to take the new COVID-19 vaccine. The XBB variants are at play now as covid is in the endemic phase like the regular flu. The new infections are dominated by EG5 (Eris) followed by FL151 (Formax) and then a far smaller number of BA286 infections (Pirola). The daily new cases chart says there is nothing of great concern occurring but you will have to wait 2 weeks to see if the CDC gets around to updating their charts.

On the CDC hospital admissions charts, it is easy to see that the latest infections, as would be expected, are targeting the old folks, especially old and fat folks, and double-especially old and fat folks with other ongoing health issues. This has been true during the entire pandemic. Note that for all the age groups, the hospital admissions dropped off this year except for the most elderly. The covid endemic is an endemic of the old and obese.

As a society, we need to protect folks over 60 years old and especially those that are overweight, obese, and/or suffering from other health ailments. They are the most vulnerable. Most everyone else can get on with life even though the US authorities will tell you otherwise. Hurry-up and read the article above before it is shadow-banned and Keystone is cancelled again as is the case over the last 3-1/2 years.

Remember that your most valuable source for correct information on the COVID-19 pandemic is available, in detail, by simply locating the pertinent Coronavirus Chronology article in the right-hand margin (archives) of The Keystone Speculator blog site.

SSYS and DDD 3-D Printer Stocks Weekly Charts; 3-D Printing Industry Crashes Over Last 3 Years and Over Last 6 Weeks

3-D printing companies have sh*t the bed and the machines cannot print new sheets. They are printing pain and misery for the longs. Remember when 3-D printing would take over the world? It was hype. Pump and dump. Will the current AI orgy suffer the same fate?

All the 3-D printer companies and plays are in the same boat with big losses including DDD, SSYS, VJET, BOXL and PRNT. SSYS was the darling of Wall Street for a few years; it could do no wrong. Now it is crumpled-up and thrown into the trash barrel of history.

SSYS collapses from 55 to 12 over the last 3 years a -78% crash. SSYS crashes -36% over the last 6 weeks. DDD collapses from 55 to 6 over the last 3 years a bloodbath crash of -89% and also plummets -45%, another crash, over the last 6 weeks. DDD and other 3-D stocks are taken to to the shed out behind the garage and beaten with a leather strap. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Displaying Key Outside Reversals

The S&P 500 prints the second key outside reversal candlestick over the last month. The candlestick takes out the prior day's high but then reverses intraday and finishes below the prior day's low. This behavior typically warns that bad stuff is coming for the stock market. The first key reversal warned you. The XLK tech ETF also prints an outside reversal. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the short side today at SPX 4428. The chop suey continues. Lots of moving parts to watch.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side at SPX 4431 yesterday. Watch VIX 15.37 and RTH 175.34 to see if the bulls have legs.

Keybot the Quant

UST2Y 2-Year Treasury Note Yield Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts; Overbot; Negative Divergence Across All Time Frames; Recession Versus Soft Landing/No Recession Scenarios Explained

The 2-year yield is topping-out in the daily, weekly and monthly time frames. Humorously, everybody and his brother on Wall Street call for higher and higher yields the complete opposite forecast. They will be surprised.

The overbot conditions and most importantly, the universal negative divergence across all chart indicators across all three time durations, seal the fate for the 2-year yield. It is always price down yields up and price up yield down for Treasury notes and bonds. Thus, the 2-year yield note being bot (price up) means the yield will move lower (as the charts above expect) and this scenario would occur if the US is in recession and investors and traders seek perceived safety in Treasuries (price up yield down).

Yields continue inching higher yesterday and then relax again today. The 10-year sits at 4.30% running up to 4.34% yesterday. Mortgage rates are the highest in over 2 decades with the 30-year fixed moving towards 7.5%. The 30 was 200 bips (2 percentage-points) lower a year ago. Wall Street analysts continue touting higher rates for longer and the soft landing/no recession outcome.

There are two potential outcomes ahead; recession or the soft landing/no recession scenario. The yield curve (2-10 spread) will dis-invert, now in the -60's bip range, and steepen going forward, regardless of the outcome ahead. The yield curve has to re-steepen for a return to normalcy, whatever that is now that America's crony capitalism system is in its last throes.

Remember, the -40 bips area for the 2-10 spread will take out the previous highs and announce a recession with high probability. Thus, for the two scenarios, a soft landing and no recession outcome means the long duration yields (10's and 30's) will move higher faster while the recession scenario will send the 2-year yields lower faster. The technicals say yields are topping-out as explained. The charts above say the 2-year yields lower and recession scenario is more likely.

Pope Powell speaks to the minions on Friday morning from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Note that the weekly chart shows the 2-year yield violating the upper band a few weeks ago so the middle band at 4.57% remains in play. The current yield at 5.00%-ish does not yet violate the upper band at 5.26% although it does not have to since the last violation remains in play. Nonetheless, this is mentioned because Powell's words on Friday morning will impact Treasury yields, the dollar and stocks.

If Powell's comments create more lift in yields, the 2-year may want to sneak higher towards that 5.26% but this would only be due to the words from the Federal Reserve. The charts are cooked in terms of yield. If yields inch higher due to Powell's words on Friday or at the September meeting coming fast, those spurts higher should be short-lived for a couple weeks or so and then the chart set-up above will be back in place wanting to send yields lower.

In real-time on Tuesday morning, yields are; 2-year 4.99%, 5-year 4.44%, 10-year 4.31%, 30-year 4.42%. The 2-10 spread (yield curve) remains inverted at -68 bips (499-431). All Hades will likely break loose when the 2-10 spread dis-inverts to -40 bips and higher. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:43 AM EST: Former New York Fed head Bill Dudley proclaims that the US shifts into a high-yield mode. Dudley decrees that yields have nowhere to go but up from here. Other analysts are calling for 6% yields. Everyone is convinced that yields will continue higher from here for many months into the future. Everyone is partying on the 'higher yields forever' side of the boat while Keystone is sitting by himself on a broken lounge chair on the 'yields peaking out and heading lower' side of the boat. Keystone does not get invited to the big fancy banker parties because he brings a wet blanket. Maybe they will come over to the lower yield thinking once the band begins playing on this side of the boat. Light 'em up boys. A Million Miles Away.

Note Added Thursday, 8/24/23: The yields are; 2-year 4.98%, 5-year 4.37%, 10-year 4.20%, 30-year 4.27%. The 2-year popped above 5% and pulls back. The 10-year hits 4.34% and then pulls back. Yields drop due to the neggie d explained above. The 2-10 spread (yield curve) remains inverted at -78 bips. The long end yields come down faster than the short end because Pope Powell speaks tomorrow morning. There is more drama ahead.

Note Added Wednesday, 8/30/23: The yields are; 2-year 4.90%, 5-year 4.30%, 10-year 4.15%, 30-year 4.25%. The short-end yields fall faster as traders think the Fed may be done hiking rates. The 2-year yield ran up to 5.10% then collapsed to 4.87% (huge 23-bip drop) yesterday now 4.90%. More analysts are following Keystone expecting lower yields going forward. Yields receive the neggie d spankdown. It's not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science. Simply follow the charts.

UST10Y 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Monthly Chart; Yields Topping-Out and Set to Begin Multi-Month Down Move

The US 10-year note yields are topping out on the long-term monthly basis and set to begin a multi-month down move. Say what?! How can that be? All of Wall Street say yields have nowhere to go but up and it is only a matter of how fast. That tells you that Wall Street is wrong.

Yields topped-out in late 2018 with the red rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence. Note that the MACD line did not go neggie d and left the door open that yields wanted to make another high. Alas, the COVID-19 pandemic hits, spawned by a likely lab leak from sick gain of function research conducted by the CCP communists with money provided by the NIH (Collins) and NIAID (Fauci).

As panic hits global markets and people begin dropping over dead, especially old and fat folks, US Treasuries are bid as people seek perceived safety. Bond and note prices jump higher as folks scramble to buy the paper so yields drop like a sack of potatoes in 2020. Many thought the world was ending and everyone would get sick and die. You only have one life to live, so live it.

Yields recover in 2021 forming the cup and handle (C&H) pattern (blue). The brim is at 1.75 and base at 0.55 so that is 1.20 difference so the breakout above the brim targets 2.95% (1.75+1.20) easily attained. The 2-leg bull flag pattern also plays out (purple) and interestingly, yields pick up from where they left off in late 2018 and early 2019 before Fauci's pandemic mess started.

If you snap your fingers and the pandemic did not occur, yields have continued the trend higher that was in play in 2018/2019 (the black arrow; remember, the MACD line wanted one more high in yields but the chart fell apart anyway; global traders and insiders knew trouble was coming from China and their sick experimentation and leaks of the coronavirus disease).

The 10-year yield prints at a high of 4.30% this month with another 2 weeks remaining. The 10-year yield is at 4.26%. All the chart indicators are in negative divergence forecasting a long-term top now in place. A multi-month down move in yields will begin any time and continue for many months if not a year or two. What?!! All of Wall Street says the opposite. This guy does not know what he is talking about? Who is this Keystone joker? There is no joke, it is what it is. Keystone is telling you what will happen as he sits back and enjoys nature.

Note the RSI has some momo over the last month so there may be a jog move for the next couple months (yields drop for about a month but then recover and move higher again for a month but never get back to the current highs and then roll over and die to begin the multi-month move lower). So yields are topped-out now and you can expect much lower yields going into the end of the year and next year the complete opposite of what the Wall Street analysts predict.

A troublesome geopolitical picture will sink yields. Like the pandemic, people will seek perceived safety and that is US Treasuries so as they flock to the bonds and notes buying at any price yields will drop like a rock. Maybe the Ukraine War starts going south? China's economy is crumbling experiencing a real estate crash like the US in 2007-2008. There is shaky stuff occurring in Japan. The US has been in a housing recession all year long and is also in a manufacturing recession. In the past, this behavior guarantees that a recession is occurring but not in these days of easy money. The recession is taking longer to arrive but do not be surprised if the future data will show the recession starting now.

You can use the shorter time duration charts (weekly, daily and hourly) to time your trades on Treasuries but know that over the long term, the coming months and perhaps year or two forward, yields will trend lower. Who do you believe? Everyone on Wall Street or Keystone sitting on a lawn chair enjoying nature in the Appalachian Mountains? Keystone is not holding any Treasury positions long or short currently. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 8/22/23: Yields continue inching higher yesterday and then relax again today. The 10-year sits at 4.30% running up to 4.34% yesterday. Mortgage rates are the highest in over 2 decades with the 30-year fixed moving towards 7.5%. The 30 was 200 bips (2 percentage-points) lower a year ago. Wall Street analysts continue touting higher rates for longer and the soft landing/no recession outcome. There are two potential outcomes ahead; recession or the soft landing/no recession scenario. The yield curve (2-10 spread) will dis-invert, now in the -60's bip range, and steepen going forward regardless of the outcome ahead. The yield curve has to re-steepen for a return to normalcy, whatever that is now that America's crony capitalism system is in its last throes. Remember, the -40 bips area for the 2-10 spread will take out the previous highs and announce a recession with high probability. Thus, for the two scenarios, a soft landing and no recession outcome means the long duration yields (10's and 30's) will move higher faster while the recession scenario will send the 2-year yields lower faster. The technicals say yields are topping-out as explained above. Choose your poison. Poison in the Well.

Note Added Thursday, 8/24/23: The yields are; 2-year 4.98%, 5-year 4.37%, 10-year 4.20%, 30-year 4.27%. The 2-year popped above 5% and pulls back. The 10-year hits 4.34% and then pulls back. Yields drop due to the neggie d explained above. The 2-10 spread (yield curve) remains inverted at -78 bips. The long end yields come down faster than the short end because Pope Powell speaks tomorrow morning. There is more drama ahead.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40 MA that Dictates Cyclical Bear and Bull Markets

The NYA will tell the story going forward. Traders and investors remain complacent and fearless sipping Fed wine and Congressional champagne while tasting AI caviar. A few of the bullish party-goers, however, are starting to feel sick about being quadruple leveraged long on full margin. Stocks are selling off in recent days as Keystone explained ahead of time with the neggie d.

Traders are wiping beads of sweat from foreheads wondering if the calls for no recession and SPX 5,000 in the months ahead may become fantasy. The NYA 40-week MA cross is one of Keystone's key metrics in determining if stocks are in a cyclical (weeks and months) bull or bear market. Obviously, if the NYA is above the 40, the US stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern. If the NYA loses the 40, a cyclical bear market begins. Forget that jackass -20% metric rookies use to gauge a bear market.

The chart shows the bear market begins as Baby New Year welcomes in 2022. Price back kisses the 40-wk MA in late March 2022 to make a bounce or die decision, and it dies. The cyclical bear growls for all of last year into the Fall. In late October early November 2022, as turkeys begin running for their lives with Thanksgiving Day approaching, the NYA overcomes the 40-wk MA signaling a cyclical bull market ahead.

Price back kisses the 40 at Christmastime last year to make a bounce or die decision and bounces, jumping higher forecasting a bull market ahead as this year begins. Stocks collapse in March due to the regional banking crisis but then quickly recover back above the 40 signaling that the bull market remains in tact. The Federal Reserve stepped in to save the day for the rich Americans as it always does in the corrupt crony capitalism system.

So, 'still here we are', as Bob sings, wondering what happens next. The NYA 40-wk MA cross will tell you the answer. If the 40-week MA at 15564 fails, the stock market is in a heap of trouble as a new cyclical bear market begins. If the bulls can hold the support at the 40 MA, the dip-buyers will enter in force and keep the stock market turd floating a little bit longer.

The drop needed to breach the 40-wk MA is 170 points lower or -1.1% so this is the magic number. Pay attention to it so you can gauge the path ahead for the US stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:04 AM EST: The NYA drops at the open to 15626 only 62 points from pain and misery at the 40-week MA at 15564. Price recovers and the NYA is at 15728. Nothing to see here, move along, nothing to see here, move along.

Note Added Saturday, 8/19/23: The NYA ends the week at 15750. The 40-week MA is 15564 so the cyclical bull market remains in tact, for now. The stock market battle continues. Time to call in the Seven Nation Army.

HSI Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Daily Chart Falls into Bear Market Down -20%

Global investors and bankers have been avoiding dirtbag Hong Kong after it was taken over by scumbag Dictator Xi. Why would you do business in a city where all the hotel and conference rooms are bugged by the filthy CCP? Hong Kong used to be the financial hub of Asia and gateway into mainland China but that is toast. Singapore and Tokyo now rise as the financial hubs of Asia as Hong Kong is sucked into full-blown communism.

90 million dirtbags in the CCP, led by the murdering bastard Dictator Xi, control the 1.4 billion Chinese folks. Do any of you understand China? No, you don't. The Chinese folks have no choice but to live under communist rule. If anyone speaks up against the state, they will be either blackballed in society, thrown into prison or a bullet put in their head. If the commie state executes an activist speaking out against the state, they send the shell casing to the family and make them pay for the cost of the bullet. Sick, isn't it? Well, this is communist China.

Chinese folks are like everyone else in the world; they just want to live a happy life, enjoy their families, make a living wage, and most of all not be bothered by the government. But alas, filthy Xi sent the troops into Hong Kong a few years ago to take over control of what was billed as a region that was autonomous from China. There is the "two systems, one China" policy but Xi spit on that idea and Hong Kong turns full-blown communist under complete control of the mainland.

Four main bridges separate Hong Kong from the mainland so it was easy for the Chinese military to walk across and takeover Hong Kong. Taiwan is not so easy. It would have to be an amphibious assault and China still does not have an adequate approach to attacking Taiwan in this manner. If China took over Taiwan, it would be a logistics nightmare to support an occupation. That would be difficult transporting supplies across the seawater 24/7 to support the Chinese military on Taiwan. Xi and his filthy CCP henchmen know this so the takeover of Taiwan by China is probably more bluster talk than something to worry about. China's economy is falling apart.

The Hang Seng peaks at 22700 in January so a drop of -20% is 18160 and lower. The Hang Seng closes at 17950 a few hours ago signaling a bear market. The -10% level for a market correction and -20% for a bear market are asinine signals but the mainstream and business media follows this stupid metric so it warrants attention.

Hong Kong is now just another dirtbag commie region like mainland China. What a shame. Keystone so loves the steps to Big Buddha. The hope was that Hong Kong was the stepping stone for China to transition into a Westernized society and way of life but after the United States gave away technology, and the communists stole the rest, Xi thumbs his nose at America, says thanks a lot sucka's, and keeps sending China, and now Hong Kong, deeper into full-blown Mao-like communism. Such is world history occurring in real-time.

China's real estate sector is collapsing. Evergrande is not grand instead filing for bankruptcy protection. Wealth products in China are falling apart screwing Chinese folks out of their savings for retirement. China does not provide assistance to the elderly; it is a communist state. China would prefer that you die when you become old rather than become a burden on the communist state. Country Garden is the next real estate domino to fall. It smells like a Country Trash Dump. Contagion will follow. Yes, you will hear the 'c' word uttered more and more each day going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:13 AM EST: The Hang Seng Index announces plans to remove Country Garden, which has become Country Sh*t Dump, from the index. That is one way to stop the slide lower in the Hang Seng; simply remove the stocks that are falling like rocks. What a corrupt world.

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts

Stocks are trading soft over the last 3 weeks as the 3 black crows on the weekly chart illustrate but remember, don't panic! Don't panic! Don't panic!

Looking at the SPX daily chart, the red lines show the rising wedge pattern, overbot RSI, stochastics and money flow, and most importantly, negative divergence, along with the upper band violation and over extension of price above the moving average ribbon, conspiring to slap price lower in the daily time frame; an easy top call.

Stocks rallied since the banking crisis in March due to four main themes. First, the AI orgy rally. Tech stocks are bid higher as well as any stock that mentions AI. Joe Sixpack chases the stocks higher as well as foreigners. Second, lots of Fed monetary stimulus and Congressional fiscal stimulus remains in the pipeline and fuels the spending by the upper middle class and privileged elite, the have's, that keep the economy afloat (but they will not spend forever). Third, the ongoing inflation data and Fed rate drama sends stocks to and fro mainly higher in recent weeks.

Fourth, and last, is a reason that people do not comment on but it is something very special this time around, is foreign investment. Foreigners have money to burn, the corrupt Saudi's bought-out the PGA for gosh sakes, and that money is buying US stocks and real estate. The home builder stocks are at record highs, despite the ongoing housing recession, because foreign buyers in white robes and other garb are laying $300K, $500K and more on the table telling the builder to construct a McMansion with granite countertops. Crazy times.

Well, what now? Price drops and prints lower lows and lower highs so the indicators can be assessed to see if positive divergence is forming to call the bottom in the daily time frame. Price stalled at the price support at 4400 to make a bounce or die decision. The red lines for the RSI, MACD and histogram (weal and bleak) want to see lower lows in price after any bounce occurs in the daily time frame. The green lines for stochastics and money flow (long and strong), and the oversold stoch's, want price to bounce right now in the daily time frame.

Thus, the SPX will likely bounce now in the daily time frame for a day or two but will then roll over lower again for another low to satisfy the weak and bleak indicators. The RSI and stochastics are below 50% in bear territory. The histogram is flattish so that should turn possie d easily as long as highly negative news does not hit the wires.

The ADX on the daily chart shows that the trend higher in stocks was a strong trend in June, July and early this month, but that is over. The upside rally in stocks is no longer a strong trend higher. The red negative Aroon cross occurs forecasting more negativity ahead for stocks. Comically, the red lines shows the bears went from being totally rejected a couple days ago, with 100% of the bears believing that stocks would go up, to now all the bears believing stocks will go down; that's a fickle bunch.

The 100-day MA at 4289 and rising may be a magnet because price tends to seek this moving average during a selloff. The 100 has not been touched in a few months so it is overdue. The lower band is violated so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 4514 and dropping, is on the table going forward.

The SPX may eventually run down to the 4300-4350 area before the daily chart sets up with possie d for an extended rally in the daily time frame to begin; all you have to do is watch the chart. The 50-day MA at 4449 will need a back kiss and bounce or die decision probably in the coming days which means there is probably more choppy slop ahead.

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 2's lead to 8's on the way down so the breach of 4420 opens the door to 4380. A drop to 4402 opens the door to 4398. If price ventures down to 4320-ish that will be a major test to see if 4280 would be on the table.

The SPX weekly chart also topped out with neggie d as previously described. For the matching and higher high in SPX, follow the thin black line downward to see what the indicators are doing. You see that all were weak and bleak, topped-out and heading lower; negatively diverged against the rising price. Thus, you can call the top due to the neggie d and you were correct.

The money flow is cheesy remaining flat but that is considered neggie d. The dip-buyers are buying what the television pundits are selling and champing at the bit to buy the dips. The dips are buying the dips. The indicators remain weak and bleak so lower lows in the SPX price is expected going forward on the weekly basis.

Price violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, which is also the 20-wk MA at 4318, is on the table and also the lower band rising sharply from 4009. There is a confluence forming at that 4318-4340 area with the daily and weekly charts so that may be the logical place where price will try to establish a bottom in the daily time frame.

The ADX is on the verge of declaring the multi-week uptrend a strong trend higher but alas, the ADX flattens and will likely roll over and die. The stock market rally over the last few months may never be called a strong trend on the weekly basis.

Despite the 3-week pullback, comically, the Aroon shows that nearly 100% of the bulls remain uber bullish and nearly 100% of the bears remain bullish. Thus, after a couple-three week selloff for stocks, it has not even begun to dent the rampant market complacency and fearlessness. Traders are ready to buy any dip. This behavior indicates that the downside likely has a long way down to go as the multi-week selloff plays out and the dip-buyers are smacked and discouraged.

Watch the RSI and stochastics on the weekly chart to see if 50% fails sending the indicators into bear territory and more negativity ahead on the weekly basis. Watch that sneaky sideways money flow, that is flatter than a newlywed's souffle, as Art Cashin would say, that is now at a 2-month low.

Back to the near term, there is lots of drama ahead in the news department. King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, must decide if he is attending the debate on 8/23/23 by Sunday evening, 8/20/23. The BRICS garbage with instituting a new currency basket to take on the US dollar's global reserve status hits the fan on Tuesday, 8/22/23. That currency cabal wants to back their new offering with gold but it will not work because the countries are not stable. The US has troubles but in the laundry basket of dirty and corrupt unstable countries, that is all of them on Earth, America is the least dirty shirt although it is soiled and stained badly.

The first republican presidential debate takes place Wednesday, 8/23/23, by Fox News, so markets may react to that circus. If Donnie does not show up, he may hold a competing event which will make everything more of a 3-ring circus with the showman in the center ring. King Donnie must turn himself in for arrest in the Georgia post-election scandal by Friday 8/25/23. Also, the Fed and the world's bankers and economists, meet late next week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and Chairman Powell speaks on Friday morning. It's fascinating watching the crony capitalism system crumble. They're all crooks. Sleepy Joe Biden, the brain-dead Alzheimer's patient, is more of a thief and corrupt individual than Trump. That's funny.

The Federal Reserve has been raising rates for 17 months (the fastest rate rise period in 40 years) and 18 months is the magic number for recessions. Everyone sings from the same hymn sheet that a recession will not occur and is nowhere in sight when in reality, it likely has just started. The US has been in a housing recession since Christmas and a manufacturing recession is ongoing. The overall US recession that takes everything down is nipping at the door. People will be surprised at how fast the economic data will likely reverse.

Note how stocks are weak into and through the peak of the new moon. Stocks should bounce for a day or so due to the possie d on the daily, but then roll over again due to the neggie d on the daily and the weak and bleak weekly chart. After one or two jog moves (down-up) on the daily chart, price should place the bottom (next week) on the daily basis. You can call the bottom when you see all the indicators go possie d like the stochastics and money flow. This will create a multi-day rally higher for stocks say for a week or so, but then the sickness of the weekly chart will kick back into gear and send stocks way lower on the weekly basis. Let it Drop as Sports Team sings. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/19/23: The SPX loses -2.1% this week ending at 4370 with a low on the week at 4335 so this level is key going forward. The 20-wk MA support is at 4316. The 100-day MA is 4297. It appears that "you have" markets "you hate." Du Hast. King Donnie Trump's team says the orange head will not participate in the Wednesday debate instead deciding to sit down with an interview with Tucker Carlson (that was canned from Fox). Donnie is a showman, and the deadline for deciding is Sunday evening, 48 hours before Wednesday, so it would not be surprising if late Sunday (tomorrow) the bloviating orange head decides to attend the debate. Didn't he already do an interview with Tucker? Trump will be spewing the same old grievances and his fantasy that he won the 2020 presidential election. Who listens to that dribble anymore? The dufus should have congratulated Biden and moved on after the 2020 election; the Capitol Hill riot would have never occurred. Trump would be heralded now into the 2024 election but instead he chose to be a whining cry-baby sore loser creating sickening non-stop daily reality television drama. King Cry Baby. Tucker tries to maintain his relevancy. He will find out what Bill O'Reilly and others have found out. Once you lose the media's bully pulpit, either a primetime television show, or broadcasting across a 50,000-watt blowtorch radio channel, it's over. You get in the back of the line and keep telling folks, "I have a podcast." Fame, notoriety, even riches, can be fleeting.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the short side yesterday at SPX 4450 as the choppy slop continues. VIX 15.43, SOX 3597 and XLF 34.25 are all that matter for stock market direction. All three are bearish and any 2 of the 3 turning bullish will shift the scales back to the bull side. Anything Could Happen.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at 4481 but considering the choppy sloppy environment, it may flip short again today. Watch VIX 15.43 and SOX 3599 since they control stock market direction currently.

Keybot the Quant

SPX Weekly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

Here is the important S&P 500 weekly chart that has been developing negative divergence. Is it soup yet? The chart looks like chop suey. It looks like Christmas with the greens and reds that are complimentary colors, like purple/yellow and blue/orange; that is why you see sports teams with these color schemes. Anyhoo, the SPX daily chart received a spankdown due to the neggie d and the weekly chart helped last week's weakness in the daily time frame.

The jury is in. Price makes the matching or higher high the week before last and all the indicators are neggie d (sloping down as price moves higher). This is the kiss of death and price drops for the last 2 weeks. Money flow is playing coy, flatter than a newlywed's souffle, so it may still try to sneak higher if the bulls can keep volatility low and pump stocks higher to begin the week. Dip-buyers are anxious to reenter the market giving the money flow the flattish profile. Overall, the chart is cooked and forecasting far lower prices ahead on the weekly basis.

Good news from the Federal Reserve or others may save the day but the expectation is that a multi-week down move has started. The rising wedge is a bearish pattern. The stochastics and RSI are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red lines show the neggie d at play that wants to smack price lower.

The upper standard deviation band is violated so the middle band, also the 20-wk MA at 4303, is on the table and also the lower band at 3985 and rising sharply. Some analysts are getting cold feet over the last few weeks and scaling back their euphoric bullish talk. They are pointing to 4300 as a potential downside target so that may hint that stocks are going far lower.

The Aroon shows that the euphoric bullishness remains in place and the 2-week pullback has done nothing to dent bullish confidence and complacency. The green bullish Aroon line is near 100% so almost all of the stock market bulls remain uber bullish waiting to buy dips. The red bearish line is near 0% so almost all of the bears also remain bullish. A negative Aroon cross is out in the future somewhere, maybe in only a week or two, and that would confirm the carnage occurring in the stock market.

The ADX shows that the stock market crash in 2022 was a strong trend lower (pink box) but that strong trend ended late last year. The stock market rally was on the verge of receiving confirmation that it is a strong trend higher but alas, the last couple weeks the ADX is flat and rolling over so the rally may never achieve strong trend status.

The week ahead is pivotal. Keybot the Quant algorithm is short but champing at the bit to go long. VIX 15.63 is telling the market story. Stocks will rally if the VIX remains below 15.63 but selling will enter the picture if the VIX moves above 15.63.

The Hawaii fire tragedy is horrific and like California wild fires, due to a-hole politicians and ecological freaks that refuse to clear-cut land to create firebreaks. The result is lots of humans dead and property damage. Give the idiot people what they want until they realize they are stupid. Maui Waui. Lots of souls were cremated in the fire. There will probably be a few skulls and thigh bones remaining and the hard task to identify those remains will begin. All those souls are welcome into the loving arms of Big Iz. It is a shame that many folks cannot get back to their houses as yet even though all that awaits them is gray ashes and more tears. They're just trying to find a way home, like Joan sings. God Bless all the Hawaiian folks. Donate to the reputable organizations helping them. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Falling Wedge and Positive Divergence Developing

The US stock market receives the neggie d spankdown previously described and forecasted on the daily chart (red lines). There is nothing difficult about calling a top. You have to wait for price to make matching or higher highs and when that occurs, ALL the chart indicators must be sloping lower. Easy-peasy. The bulls are calling the stock market Kind of a Drag.

The blue stars show how price was overextended to the long side above the entire moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower was on tap going forward. Price also tapped the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 4530, was on the table and achieved, and the lower band is also on the table at 4451 and this is achieved on Friday with that low at 4444 (quad 4's).

The ADX pink box shows that the strong trend higher for stocks on the daily basis has ended. The rally in SPX was confirmed as a very strong trend higher in early June pointing the way to more partying for bulls, which occurred. But alas, the ADX falls below the high 20's, where a strong trend higher, or lower, is identified, and the strong trend higher for the SPX is now done.

Price collapses during August into the green falling wedge a bullish pattern. Note how price at 4464 and a LOD Friday at 4444 pauses at the confluence of the 50-day MA support at 4438 and the bottom band line at 4452. This was mentioned in the previous post as a potential magnet area for price, and it was, so it makes sense that price may want to bounce for a day or two while the critical bounce or die decision is made at the important 50-day MA.

The SPX is making lower lows so the indicators can be assessed for potential positive divergence developing so the bottom can be predicted. As price drops, the RSI, MACD, ADX and ROC are all negatively sloped remaining weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in price going forward on the daily basis. The histogram is flat, ditto the stochastics and the money flow is sloping higher positively diverging against the falling price, wanting to see price bounce for a day or few. The stoch's are also oversold agreeable to a bounce occurring in price right now.

The stronger money flow are the dip-buyers. They cannot help themselves and with all the ongoing bullish chatter in the media each day, itchy fingers want to buy those dips because they expect a big rally into year end. That is what the highly-paid Wall Street analysts say but none of them called the top in the stock market like Keystone did.  Are you in the happy bull camp expecting blue skies and rainbows ahead or are you pulling up stakes and moving on? Investors and traders become chart technicians during difficult periods; jackasses all. Many are buying the dip based on price bouncing off the 50-day dubbing themselves as chartists.

The falling wedge extends a bit further with the apex so there is room to squeeze in another couple of lows. 4400 is strong price support. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 2's lead to 8's on the way down so 4420 is critical since it would open the door to 4380. Therefore, 4420-ish may be a logical place to bottom. You do not have to guess; simply wait until all the indicators are possie d and then you can call the bottom.

The new moon peaks on hump day this week and stocks are typically soggy moving through the new moon. It is the darkest time of the month so war activity in Ukraine will ramp up in the coming days as the night vision goggles flip down, the night scopes flip up, and it is time to shoot through the pitch-black darkness catching enemies off guard.

Housing Starts are released on Wednesday morning and are uber important to the path ahead. The United States remains in a housing recession since Christmas. America is also in a manufacturing recession currently. Stocks are elevated and folks are happy since the upper middle class and privileged elite are keeping the economy afloat; they are the ones that benefited greatly over the last 14 years due to Fed money printing at the expense of the rest of the country. Be glad the crony capitalism system is in its last throes.

Continental Tire in Europe had bad news a few days ago with weak guidance provided for both Europe and North America. If you do not need rubber and tires folks, that means cars and light trucks are not needed. TSLA, F and GM will require close monitoring. It means that big earth moving machinery is not needed. Every project starts with a hole in the ground. CAT and DE stocks are in euphoria mode so they may have to rethink the road ahead if tires, like heroin, is so passe.

The previous posts discussed the importance of the SPX weekly and whether or not it is negatively diverged (because it paints the picture forward on a weekly basis). Well, is it?

The daily chart above hints that stocks may experience a relief bounce for a day or two, and then, perhaps with the timing of the new moon mid-week, roll over for lower lows and place a bottom on the daily basis once possie d forms. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/19/23: DE stock collapses -9% during the week. It appears that Deere got the tire memo. "Nothing runs like a Deere," except Uncle Johnny at the old folks home after taco night.

WE WeWork Weekly Chart; -99% Crash Over Last 2 Years

WeWork must not be working hard enough since the WE stock has crashed -99% from 15 bucks to 13 cents over the last 23 months. The Einstein CEO announces the other day that he thinks WeWork may not be able to continue as a viable operation. Ya think? Whatever gave you that idea, jackass?

WeWork leases a lot of commercial real estate space providing offices and meeting areas for businesses and workers. The commercial real estate sector is hurting and will worsen on the WeWork collapse. It was a stupid business model with far too many expensive costs versus perceived income.

From the start, Keystone humorously said that WeWork should be called WeDate since workers congregated there mainly to find dates instead of work. Everyone was young once. Like the college library where you did more ogling at the nubile bodies and pretty faces than studying.

History rhymes and repeats. At the peak of the dotcom bubble 1999-2000, Pets.com and Webvan were the two turds that ushered in the end game. Today, WeWork and Beyond Meat are the modern-day poster children. We hardly knew ye. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8/16/23: WE is at 15 cents. What a turd. Lots of people were suckered.

Note Added 8/18/23: WE announces a 40 to 1 reverse stock split to try and get the sinking turd to float. WeWork is likely headed towards delisting.

Messages May Be Sporadic Going Forward Due to Ongoing Censorship, Harassment, Banning, Cancelling and Shadow-Banning of the K E Stone Blogs

The K E Stone blogs (Keybot the Quant and The Keystone Speculator) continue to be shadow-banned and screwed on social media platforms mainly due to the Coronavirus Chronology that chronicled each day of the 3-year COVID-19 pandemic both the successes and the many failures, mistakes and misinformation and disinformation spewed by the US government and medical officials.

The corrupt political parties in America's crony capitalism system (demopublicans and republocrats) are only interested in pushing their sick narratives to maintain power and control. Any information questioning or deviating from the controlled narrative is crushed.

BYND Beyond Meat Weekly Chart; -96% Crash Over Last 4 Years

Beyond Meat is cooked. Stick a fork in it. It is not only well done, it is burnt. Crispy-fried. BYND stock crashes -96% from 240 to 10 over the last 4 years a bloodbath for a meat that has no blood. The jury is in on the salty slop. Why would you eat plastic meat when you can have a juicy hamburger or tasty steak instead?

By the look of the stock chart, people must have tried the new laboratory meat once, and then immediately ran to the mens or ladies room, and then do not want to take a second bite. Plant-based protein. Yuck. Phony meat is as stupid as glorified golf carts (EV's).

Good luck to them but fake meat will probably be viewed as a novelty item going forward. Rancid. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the bear camp yesterday at SPX 4479. Copper and volatility are all that matter for stock market direction currently. CPER 23.73 and VIX 15.62 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand.

VIX dropped below 15.62 this morning creating lift in S&P futures but now, in real-time, the bears are pushing the VIX back above 15.62.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Positive Divergence

The SPX hourly, daily and weekly charts topped-out with negative divergence over the last few days. The charts will need checked tomorrow once the new candlesticks begin printing to make sure the negativity remains in place especially on the weekly chart.

Obviously, the hourly time frame is the fastest moving time frame so it will flip bullish to bearish and back again once or a few times in relation to the daily time frame and many times back and forth when compared to the weekly time frame. Thus, the 2-hour chart is setting up for a rally in stocks, and S&P futures are higher on Sunday evening on the East Coast, but the daily and weekly time frames remain in neggie d wanting lower prices in stocks going forward.

Trading is playing multi-dimensional chess where the time frames are the dimensions. I see some of your eyes are glazing over so simply nod your head yes and say Uh-Huh.

The S&P 500 (US stock market) topped out with neggie d (red lines) in the 2-hour time frame and the spankdown occurs. Price trends lower off the top favoring the lower standard deviation band on the way down. The SPX makes a lower low in price and all the indicators are positively diverged (green lines). A relief bounce is on tap in the 2-hour time frame.

Watch the RSI and MACD. See how their possie d is tentative? After stocks begin trading on Monday morning, check the chart because if either indicator slips for a lower low, that means price will want to jog once more before bottoming (down-up before marking the bottom with possie d across ALL the indicators).

A candlestick will print at 9:30 AM EST, then 10 AM, then 12 PM noon munchtime then 2 PM. Thus, the bottom may be in now on the 2-hour, if not it likely will be on Monday morning. By noon you will know the story. Simply check to make sure that the chart bottomed properly with possie d.

Marrying the 2-hour time frame with the daily and weekly charts, the path ahead is up for stocks probably on Monday and Tuesday, perhaps into mid-week, then the 2-hour chart will again set up with neggie d and top-out again, then the sogginess on the daily and weekly charts will re-exert their negativity as the 2-hour begins dropping again and drag stocks down for the next leg lower going forward.

The 2-hour will begin rallying tomorrow morning and then simply watch it this week to see when the neggie d forms (like the red lines again), and that should be a great top to short. At that time, the 2-hour will roll over again and kick-in the next leg of down for the daily and weekly time frames. Of course, if you do not day or scalp trade, and you instead like to hold positions for many days and/or weeks, you could short the market going forward and not worry so much about catching the exact top on the 2-hour chart.

Check the SPX weekly chart after the new candlestick starts for the week to make sure that time frame is in neggie d confirming the top. A multi-week down move in stocks is going to get everyone's attention. Especially when the bull party is in full swing with rainbows and blue skies ahead and a recession is taken completely off the table by most of the Wall Street analysts. The future's so bright, you gotta wear shades. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Daily Chart

Utilities remain in failure mode forecasting doom and gloom for the US stock market in the weeks ahead. If you are long the stock market, you should be very afraid. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/19/23: UTIL drops to the 878 palindrome. The SPX drops from 4607 to a low at 4335 over the last 3 weeks a -5.9% retreat. Good luck to all of you.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish but Already Wants to Flip Short Again in the Choppy Sloppy Stock Market

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side on Friday at SPX 4524 but already is champing at the bit to flip short again. Monday will be interesting. Bears need SPX below 4475 and trending lower. Bulls need VIX below 15.91. Who will win?

Keybot the Quant

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The 6 percentage-point reversals are important for the BPSPX and when times are bullish, the 70% level is key. The stock market was in rally mode during July. The Fed wine and Congressional champagne flows like water and the Good Times send stocks to the 80.20 top and closing high at 79.80 (red line).

Thus, taking away 6, is 74.20 and 73.80, respectively; call it 74. If the BPSPX falls through 74, it is a stock market sell signal. That is why price stopped short and is perched on this bull/bear line in the sand at 74 waiting on the AAPL and AMZN yearnings last evening and the US Monthly Jobs Report that drops in 4-1/2 hours. AAPL traded down -2% after its results and AMZN up +8%.

If the BPSPX drops, and then falls through the critical 70 level, it is a double-whammy sell signal and stocks will be falling like rocks.

Bulls need the BPSPX to bounce now; there is no more leeway. It is a bounce or die situation that depends on the jobs numbers. The wages component of the jobs report correlates to inflation so it carries clout.

If the 74 is lost, it leads to a weaker stock market. Remember, stocks are technically weak in the daily time frame currently. However, watch the 70 level because if price comes down and bounces there, that will signal that the bulls are not willing to give up the fight and a relief rally may occur after which another test of 70 would likely occur. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/5/23: The BPSPX ends the week at 72.20 issuing a stock market sell signal. Next watch the 70 level to see if a double-whammy sell signal kicks in, or not. Bulls need a six percentage-point reversal higher to save the day; that is 78.20 (72.20+6).

Note Added Wednesday, 8/9/23, at 7:45 AM EST: The BPSPX drops to 69.20 losing the 70% level issuing a double-whammy sell signal for the US stock market. Bulls need a six percentage-point reversal, that would be 75.20, to stop the negativity.

Note Added Saturday, 8/19/23: The BPSPX collapses to 55.40 continuing the double-whammy sell signal.