US Unemployment Claims Weekly Chart; US Jobless Claims Remain in a 10-Month Uptrend

US Unemployment Claims are released every Thursday morning at 8:30 AM EST. The steady narrative over the last weeks and few months is that Claims are not rising so there is no sign of a recession ahead. Granted, the numbers are not rising at a sharp and fast rate as would be expected going into a recession, however, look at the chart folks.

US Jobless Claims are trending higher, as per the 4-week MA, since last September now 10 months along. What part of that don't you understand?

Everyday you hear about how great the job market is but why is that the case when Unemployment Claims have been rising for over 10 months?

The 4-wk MA is at 234K moving higher since September and the trend is higher since the chart is non-stop with higher highs and higher lows. The 4-wk MA remains in an uptrend despite the moving average dropping over the last 4 weeks. The entire 4-wk MA trend line has a pulse behavior starting in September it is 8 weeks up then 6 weeks down, then 8 weeks up then 7 weeks down, then 4 weeks up now 5 weeks down. Each of the up surges are similar in magnitude but the last pulse ran higher in 4 weeks instead of 8 weeks.

The next data point is Thursday of this week, 8/3/23, and that, along with the following week on 8/10/23, will provide valuable insight into the path forward. Rising Claims are standard as the US slips into recession. Will the uptrend falter going forward or accelerate higher guaranteeing a recession?

If Claims come in very light this week and pull the 4-wk MA lower, that may finally be a lower low that jeopardizes the 10-mth trend line. However, Claims will need to take out the prior support lows to wave the all-clear flag.

Commentators, analysts and traders are sanguine about Unemployment Claims saying they are not rising so there is no need to worry about a recession. Hey dolts, Claims are rising for over 10 months. Capiche? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYXBT Bitcoin Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence Developing

The bitcoin weekly chart above looks like a Jackson Pollock.  Bitcoin has shelled-out a lot of drama over the last few years. Keystone called the Fall 2021 top. Remember that? Everyone was off the charts bullish expecting nothing but big numbers ahead. Folks talked about bitcoin 100K, 200K, 600K. It got out of hand. You never want to be contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian but all it took was a look at the neggie d on the weekly chart (red lines) to know that bitcoin was cooked. It was an easy top call. Nothing to it. Child's play.

So bitcoin receives the neggie d spankdown in late 2021 and pukes its guts out in 2022. All the guys bragging to everyone at Thanksgiving dinner 2021 that they hold bitcoin and are an expert in trading cryptocurrencies had their heads handed to them during Thanksgiving 2022 dinner. Uncle Johnny asked Timmy Trader about the bitcoin he owned and was bragging about last year but Timmy kept his head down eating mashed potatoes pretending he did not hear the question.

But, conversely, bottoms tend to occur when everyone is negative and wants nothing to do with the stock, ETF, bitcoin or whatever you are trading. 

The green lines show bitcoin price continuing lower in Oct-Nov 2022 but ALL the indicators are positively diverged (sloping higher) signaling that the indicators are fueled-up with bull juice and ready to launch. Voila, price rallies higher at the end of last year into this year and now everyone is proclaiming a new beginning for bitcoin heading higher. Not so fast.

Price pops above the upper trend line of the blue sideways symmetrical triangle a bullish indication. However, the red lines show that the indicators are all sloping down. A red down arrow is not drawn on the chart for the current price action because price did not quite make it back up to the prior high in April, on the weekly basis, at 30600. You cannot have negative divergence if price did not yet make a higher high. Bitcoin is at 30140 in the neighborhood. 

Thus, watch the price in the days ahead. If bitcoin runs higher above 30.6K, check the chart indicators above. If they remain negatively diverged, the top is in for bitcoin on the weekly basis. Bitcoin bulls need the indicators to regain strength to send price higher but they are spent on the weekly basis.

The Aroon shows the majority of bitcoin bulls expect it to continue higher forever while humorously, the majority of bitcoin bears also expect the digital currency to rally higher. This is a contrarian indicator showing that the boat is loaded to one side with bitcoin bulls.

The ADX shows that the first push higher in 2019 was a strong trend, but that petered out, then the big move up in 2020 and 2021 evolved into a strong trend higher but that petered out in 2021. The low ADX verifies that bitcoin price is staggering sideways and directionless like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night.

If you see bitcoin above 30.6K this week and the indicators remain neggie d, you can call the top in bitcoin on the weekly basis (a multi-week down move begins). Keystone does not hold any bitcoin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UST2Y US 2-Year Yield Monthly Chart; Overbot Yield; Negative Divergence; Expansion (Megaphone) Pattern; 2-Year Yield Has Topped-Out for the Year

The US 2-year yield has printed the highs for the year. Whatchu talkin' 'bout Willis? Everyone knows that yields will move continually higher from here. What's this guy talking about?

The charts do not lie folks. The UST2Y 2-year yield chart is shown above. The red lines show universal negative divergence across all chart indicators. There is no more fuel available to take yields higher. Stick a fork in the yields; the 2-year yield is cooked for the year and topped-out. Can the 2-year yield sneak a bit above 5% again if news hit the wires? Of course, but on the monthly basis, the top in for the 2-year yield. Neggie d is a powerful force. The old adage that you do not fight the Fed is only superseded by the more important adage that you do not fight the powerful forces of neggie and possie d.

Humorously, Wall Street is consumed by the inflation data and actions of the Federal Reserve under Pope Powell's guidance. The universal consensus is that if the Fed keeps hiking rates, the economy will crack, a recession will begin, and stocks will sell off. Conversely, these so-called smart people believe that when the Fed stops hiking, that will confirm a soft landing without a recession, and stocks will soar. Thus, when there is a hint of higher inflation, that means the Fed will continue to hike, and stocks sell off. When inflation data subsides, as it has recently, that creates the soft landing narrative and investors and traders buy stocks with both fists.

Won't they all be surprised when yields fall lower and stocks sell off at the same time? It will be fun to watch. It will probably be a credit crisis in US banks a la March or economic failures and defaults in other countries that serve as catalysts for the pending fun.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback in yields. The expansion, or megaphone, pattern is clearly visible in the yield behavior since the back half of last year (red lines) to present. Yield violated the upper band from late 2021 through mid-2022. The middle band, which is also the 20-mth MA at 3.45%, is on the table and this target forms a confluence with the lower trend line of the megaphone pattern providing some street cred as a future landing area (3.45%-4.00%).

Remember, this is a monthly chart so think long term as in months and a year or two although huge moves lower may occur in yields in far shorter time periods like the pandemic. Also remember that note and bond yields move opposite to price. For the COVID-19 pandemic, investors and traders ran to the perceived safety of Treasuries so note and bond prices were driven higher and the corresponding yields dropped faster than a prom dress at midnight.

Once the corrupt Federal Reserve and Congress started pumping monetary and fiscal stimuli into the economy to recover from the pandemic (the opposite of capitalism), traders received the all clear to buy stocks with the easy money and shun notes and bonds (Treasury prices drop so yields drive higher). The Fed is also in a raising mode pumping yields higher.

Unrest in the world, ongoing and future wars, and rumor of wars, geopolitical problems, and the US presidential race will heat up each week and month ahead. Any fear or worry would only drive yields lower since people will be seeking the perceived safety of US Treasuries (higher prices as demand for Treasuries increase which sends yields lower).

If you plug in UST5Y, UST7Y, UST10Y and UST30Y, you can see that those charts all show the indicators sloping lower, however, the yields have not come up for a matching or higher high. Thus, the 2-year yield is the only one with negative divergence so far. This behavior hints that the yields for the other durations may have to float higher in early August to lock in their neggie d. You can also see this with the TBT ETF. As the yields for the other durations move higher, if they do, the 2-year may sneak above 5% again. This does not have to happen but may be on tap in early August as the stock market tops out.

If the stock market rolls over and dies, which is expected on the weekly basis going forward due to the developing negative divergence (stocks are topping out in the days ahead and week or two), the fear will send investors and traders into the perceived safety of notes and bonds (prices up yields down)).

The green lines show the positive divergence that launched the 2-year yield in 2021. Interestingly, the stochastics and ROC remained flat to a hair negative hinting that no matter how high yields went, they should weaken at some point and move lower again. Contrast this with the current neggie d in play where ALL the indicators are sloping lower (red lines) as yield moves higher and there is no ambiguity. Look at that. Keystone used a ten dollar college word.

The Aroon shows the boat clearly loaded to the higher yield side with the party (note and bond negativity expecting lower prices and higher yields) in full swing. The Aroon green line shows that 84% of the note bears are convinced that yields will move higher forever in the long-term time frame. Comically, the Aroon red line shows that 100% of the note bulls, that expect higher note and bond prices with corresponding lower yields, believe that yields will actually continue to move higher. Every one of them. That is funny.

In other words, there are no note and bond bulls remaining; everyone is a Treasury bear, even the Uber driver, shoeshine boy, doorman and cafeteria lady, expecting lower note and bond prices and higher yields. You know what happens when everyone is loaded on one side of the boat, right?

The SPX daily chart is cooked with neggie d so there is no oomph or need for it to move higher in that time frame. The SPX weekly chart, however, still has a long and strong MACD so the top on the weekly basis for the stock market is still likely a few days or week or two away (see previous charts).

Thus, mixing all the analyses together and sprinkling on some voodoo dust, the US stock market is expected to top-out on the weekly basis any day forward and begin a multi-week downturn. The weak utilities indicate that it will not be a run of the mill downturn of -5% or -10%; it will likely be double or triple that. This meshes perfectly with the top in the 2-year yield since traders will be running into Treasuries buying with both fists sending note and bond prices higher and yields lower as the chart above forecasts. Stocks and yields will drop (Treasury prices higher) into the Fall and year-end. The Drop. 

Are you ready for the festivities into year-end as every Wall Street analyst tells you that stocks are going to catapult higher while yields remain steady? Who do you think is correct for the back half of the year? Keystone or all of Wall Street? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/2/23, at 5:22 AM EST: The longer duration yields such as 10's and 30's drop 6 to 8 basis points yesterday while the 2's on the front end retreat a couple of points. Same vibe this morning with the 2-10 spread dropping into the -80's range. Fitch downgrades the US credit rating last evening reminiscent of August 2011.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/3/23, at 4:00 AM EST: The yields are 2-yr 4.89%, 5-yr 4.28%, 10-yr 4.15%, 30-yr 4.26%. The 2-10 spread is dis-inverting up to -74 basis points. For today, the 2's are up 1 bip, the 5's gain 4 bips in yield, the 10's are up 7 bips and the 30's are up 8 bips. Yields climb on the long end.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

The US stock market snaps back to the upside on Friday after the outside reversal on Thursday but unable to print new highs. The daily chart is topped-out with negative divergence but the dip-buyers remain anxious to go long stocks for fear of missing out on the rally everyone is boasting about.

Stocks should be weak for a few days due to the neggie d in the daily time frame, but should recover again for another matching or higher price high due to the long and strong MACD line and RSI on the weekly chart. The overbot RSI and stochastics in the weekly time frame will conspire with the neggie d on the daily chart to create a few days of weakness. The 20-day MA support is at 4501 and the 50-day MA support is at 4371.

The full moon peaks at 2:31 PM EST Tuesday, the Sturgeon Moon, so stocks may lift higher from Tuesday into Wednesday. July was a big up month for stocks and typically when you see stocks running higher like that the last 2 or 3 days of the month tend to finish lower. Monday is EOM. New money tends to float into the stock market the first couple days of a new month. The US Monthly Jobs Report is Friday at 8:30 AM EST.

The SPX weekly chart is important since a multi-week down move will begin once it tops out with neggie d. Sometimes it is like herding cats waiting for ALL the chart indicators to turn down as price moves higher. The MACD was the only remaining parameter that was long and strong but you can see that the RSI has now eked out a tiny higher high which provides more strength for price to come up again on the weekly basis.

The histogram, stochastics and money flow are negatively diverged and want the multi-week downturn to begin now. Ditto the overbot RSI, stoch's and money flow. You know the drill. Price will need to jog (down-up) for the RSI and MACD to go neggie d. Price may also jog once, and the RSI returns to neggie d, but the MACD line may still be long and strong so it will need another jog (down-up on the weekly basis). For now, let's say that the weekly chart will top out after one jog move.

The Aroon green line indicates that 100% of the stock market bulls believe 100% that stocks will go up forever especially in the many weeks ahead and the red lines shows that nearly 80% of the bears believe stocks will go up forever. This is rampant complacency and fearlessness with owning stocks and you know what happens when everyone is puffing their chests out on the long side.

The ADX pink boxes show that the downside collapse in the SPX was a strong trend lower in 2022 but that strong trend ended last Fall in the October/November time frame. Stocks bottomed and rallied ever since. The ADX moves higher and is about to indicate that the up move in the stock market is a strong trend. The bulls may cheer but that should be tempered since you typically want this ADX set-up when the chart is set up like last Fall or early this year. The rally is long in the tooth as the indicators show.

The SPX has violated the upper band so the middle band, also the 20-wk MA at 4250, is on the table as well as the lower band down at 3889. These targets can be further explained and discussed after the weekly chart tops out in the days and couple weeks ahead.

The orange circle shows a gap big enough to drive a truck through (it is mandatory to say this cliché when talking gaps). The bears would be smart to root for price moving up to 4620-4650 to fill that gap and button-up all loose ends above. This housekeeping would then allow price to fall in earnest going forward.

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so this is why the bulls wanted that close at 4582. It is only one day but 4580 opens the door to 4620 so the 4620-4630 target may be the top in a week or two. The 4578 opened the door to 4582. A move to 4588 would open the door to 4592.

The bullishness is off the charts. Bears are as rare as hen's teeth. Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley, that has been bearish on the market this year, throws in the towel and joins the bull party. This is funny since he may have capitulated only a week or two before the top on the weekly basis. Goldman Sachs's David Kostin is a bull. Of course, permabulls such as Neil Dutta and Professor Jeremy Siegel say stocks will rally the remainder of the year. CNBC commentator Jim Cramer cheers the upside in stocks proclaiming that it is "too early for the new bull market to end." There are only bulls remaining on Wall Street. All these folks will be girding their loins in a week or two.

Investors, traders, analysts and commentators are obsessed with the Federal Reserve and Pope Powell's rate decisions and the inflation data. Minds are locked into the thinking that if the Fed raises rates, stocks will drop and the economy will fall into recession. Conversely, if the Fed is on hold with rates, a soft landing is achieved, and all is groovy with stocks going forward.

In reality, what is most likely going forward, is a credit crisis like March and more bank drama. Won't everyone be surprised when yields drop (investors and traders will be buying Treasuries for perceived safety so price up yield down) as stocks tank?

Let's weave a mosaic for the trading path ahead from the chart and time information above. The month of July probably ends down on Monday with weakness into Tuesday morning, then a lift in stocks from Tuesday into mid-week, then more down on the daily basis for a few days. The sogginess in stocks for the week ahead will then likely peter out as the week ends or the following week begins, and price should then rally for another high on the weekly basis (say, the week of 8/7/23) and at that time, all the chart indicators above should line up with negative divergence so the spankdown on the weekly basis would begin with many weeks of downside ahead. Simply watch the RSI and MACD above and you will know when to call the top on the weekly basis.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long the market through the recent turmoil with the robot focused on utilities, copper and volatility as the key drivers of market direction currently. Keystone is holding index shorts that are underwater currently. It will be interesting to see when Keybot flips short going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 8/1/23, at 5:30 AM EST: The bulls keep flapping their gums. Bespoke's Paul Hickey proclaims that stocks will be higher from here into the end of the year. He is a two-handed analyst that then opines about multiple headwinds but proclaims that stocks will be higher than current levels one year from now. Oppenheimer's permabull John Stoltzfus, that did not predict the top in the stock market at the end of 2021, now decrees that stocks will run higher and hit 4900 this year. The future's so bright you have to wear shades. Timbuck 3.

$INDU Dow Jones Industrials Index Daily Chart; Dow Prints 13 Consecutive Up Days Not Seen Since 1987; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Winning Streak Ends at 13 Days

The Dirty Thirty (Dow Jones Industrials; INDU; DJI) rally for 13 consecutive days a streak not seen since 1987. The orgy is in full swing with Dow futures indicating a positive start for day 14. Timmy Trader is waving around fistfuls of cash profits from the rally enjoying his new life as a Chick Magnet. What happened in 1987? Oh, don't worry, it's different this time.

The previous SPX daily chart, which is the US stock market, is topped-out on the daily basis (depending on what news comes across the wires) but you can see that the Dow stocks are still displaying long and strong RSI and MACD that want to see another high in price.

The histogram, stochastics and ROC are all neggie d wanting the Dow stocks to begin a multi-day selloff. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red rising wedge is bearish. Dow stocks may slump for a day then come back up (a jog move down-up) and at that time check the RSI and MACD. If they are neggie d then the top will be in; it should occur anytime over the coming days, the chart will signal when.

The Aroon shows 100% of the bulls believe stocks will go up forever and comically nearly 90% of the bears believe stocks will go up forever. That's funny. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. The upper band is violated so price will need to back check the middle band, the 20-day MA, at 34581, and the lower band at 33473 is also in play going forward.

Look at the volume candlesticks; 13 up days but the biggest up volume day during the rally is nowhere near the two largest volume selloff days a few weeks earlier. Price will need to come down to test the price levels corresponding to the two big selloff days in late May and mid-June.

The blue lines show the textbook 2-leg bull flag pattern. First leg up is 31740 to 34070, you can fine tune the numbers if you want, Keystone is eyeballing off the chart, so that is a difference of 2330. The sideways consolidation period occurs (flag or pennant), with a slight downward bias, and a second leg higher looks like it wants to begin from 32800-ish so adding 2330 is 35130. Bingo. Old guys say bingo a lot. The 35130 upside target is achieved satisfying the 2-leg bull pattern.

Will the Dow be able to log 14 days of upside or does it stop at 13? The negatively diverged indicators want price to receive a spankdown now in the daily time frame so that should begin today or tomorrow, but, as stated, price will want to come up again due to the long and strong RSI and MACD, and then likely top out with universal neggie d anytime during the days forward. Simply watch the chart and you can call the top. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:37 PM EST: The Dow pukes 237 points, -0.666%, to 35283 with an outside reversal candlestick. The winning streak ends at 13 days. If the Dow was up today for 14 days, it would have been the longest winning streak since 1897 (126 years ago), back when politicians Biden, Trump, McConnell, Pelosi, Feinstein, Grassley and Schumer were born; fossils all. The Dow started in 1896. Wooo, doggie, well look at that. The Dow price makes a matching and higher high today and ALL the chart indicators go neggie d. Both the RSI and MACD line are sloping down as price went up so the neggie d spankdown was on tap, identical to the SPX daily chart that is posted, and the Dow was spanked down today and should remain weak on the daily basis ahead. 

$LUMBER Daily Chart; -12% Collapse in Last 6 Days

Lumber is whacked lower from 590 to 520 a -12% drop in only 6 days. Ouchie. Ironically, lumber is taken to the shed out back, the one behind the garage, and beaten with a 2x4 (a stick of lumber). Lumber was flying high in 2021 up at 1600 to 2100 now stumbling along at 520. All of us Men Who Built America are old now. Sing it, Horslips.

The red lines show price making the matching or higher high and the indicators negatively diverging so it was time for a neggie d spankdown and voila, smack, down she goes. The RSI is flat for the lower low so price will likely bounce off the 200-day MA support at 519 for a day or so but then price should weaken again since the other indicators remain weak and bleak.

The cheerleaders for the housing market guaranteeing great times ahead tout the strength in lumber as proof of the blue skies and rainbows ahead for real estate. Whoopsies daisies. Maybe they will not tout lumber as much now. Lumber is beaten like a rented mule over the last couple years so a sideways stumble with a slight upward bias is likely the path ahead for the next couple years but that is nothing to write home about.

The US housing market recession is now in its 8th month and the situation continues to worsen so perhaps the drop in lumber will now start to confirm the negativity. 

The orange gap down below from May is big enough to drive a lumber truck through it so that will need filled at some point forward. Price has not yet touched the lower standard deviation band so that remains in play at 508 and dropping.

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says price seeks 2's if it achieves 8's on the way up and price seeks 8's if it drops below 2's on the way down. Huh? What's this guy talking about? If 520 is lost, it opens the door to 480 which is the blue line of support. 522 opens the door to 518. 512 would open the door to 508.

The Aroon produces a negative cross pointing to lower lumber prices ahead. The ADX was declaring the move higher in lumber as a strong trend, which had the housing market bulls joyously quivering and vibrating with excitement, but this trend petered out (pink box) and the trend higher in lumber in the daily time frame is now NOT a strong trend higher.

The lumber chart is interesting since it is one of the go-to key points that housing and real estate bulls point to as supporting the housing market going forward. No one has mentioned lumber over the last few days as price drops faster than a prom dress at midnight. California Girls. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8/1/23: Lumber 505.

Note Added 8/3/23: Lumber 497.

Note Added 8/6/23: Lumber 495.

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts; Negative Divergence on Daily Chart and Negative Divergence Developing on Weekly Chart

Here are the SPX daily and weekly charts. The stock market remains stubbornly high and buoyant into today's Federal Reserve rate decision of a quarter point that everyone expected. Stocks oscillate up and down in an indecisive fashion after the decision and press conference. 

The SPX daily chart is cooked; stick a fork in it. The S&P 500 is topped-out on the daily basis and will receive a spankdown. The only thing that can save the day is a positive news announcement from the Fed, or government, or perhaps a bank, that may delay the top a day or two more.

Price makes the matching and higher high while ALL the chart indicators are sloping downward (red lines) forming universal negative divergence. She's out of gas. There are not even fumes remaining anymore. The tank is bone dry so there is no more fuel to take price higher on the daily basis. It is time for a smackdown. The RSI and stochastics are also overbot agreeable to a pullback.

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion lower. The upper standard deviation band is violated so the middle band, also the 20-day MA, at 4483, is on the table and the lower band at 4356. The Aroon green line shows that 100% of the stock market bulls believe that stocks will go up forever. That's funny. Even better, the Aroon red line indicates that 84% of stock market bears believe that stocks will go up forever.

Obviously, everyone is partying on the bull side of the boat except for Keystone sitting in the only lounge chair remaining on the bear side of the boat covered with a wet blanket. The blue circles show 15 distribution days over the last 7 weeks (the smart money selling (distributing) shares to the dumb money). Those pundits on television telling you to buy stocks are getting rid of theirs at the same time (pump and dump).

Note the orange circles on the daily chart highlighting some gaps down below that will eventually need filled. A couple of them are big enough to drive a truck through (you have to say this cliché when discussing gaps). 

On the SPX weekly chart, price is narrowing up into a rising wedge pattern that is bearish. The red lines show neggie d in place for all the indicators except the MACD line. It is typically the last chart indicator that falls into place when calling tops and bottoms. Waiting for the indicators to all line up together can sometime be like herding kittens.

The RSI, stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback on the weekly chart. Again, the Aroon verifies the rampant complacency and bullishness in the stock market. 100% of the stock market bulls believe that stocks will go up forever on the weekly basis. 76% of the bears believe stocks will go up forever on the weekly basis. It is funny stuff. The bull party is in full swing with the Fed wine and Congressional champagne flowing like water. Traders throw darts at stock pages and buy that ticker symbol long on margin. What can possibly go wrong?

So what does all this mumbo jumbo mean? The daily chart is cooked and topped-out now with the weekly chart almost there. Two more trading days remain in this week. There are three paths ahead and the outcome will likely be clear at 4 PM EST Friday when the week ends and the charts are cast in stone.

First, the daily chart will spank price lower on the daily basis the rest of this week and into next week. However, when this week ends on Friday, the MACD line remains long and strong as the chart shows above (green line). This tells you that stocks will be weak next week to honor the negative divergence on the daily chart but the week after price will come back up for another matching and/or higher high (a down-up jog move on the weekly basis to give the MACD a chance to go neggie d). At that time, the week of 8/7/23, the SPX will likely top out on the weekly basis and a multi-week down move in the US stock market will begin.

Second scenario is the daily chart spanking price lower on the daily basis the rest of this week and into next week. The spanking is quite severe and stocks take a deep dive tomorrow and Friday due to the neggie d on the daily chart. This big drop in stocks over the next couple days will cause the candlestick on the weekly chart to turn red and the red body to drop lower. This activity may result in the MACD line turning neggie d on  the weekly chart over the next couple days. If the weekly chart finishes this week with the MACD flat or sloping down the top is in for the weekly chart and the multi-week down move in the stock market will begin in earnest next week. In other words, you better have shorts on.

The third scenario is happy talk from the Fed, or Whitehouse, or a company CEO or few, that manage to buoy stocks a touch higher. If the RSI and/or MACD line on the daily chart poke higher, that will extend the top on the daily chart by a couple days or so but the charts will again be set up to follow the two prior scenarios.

The first scenario is likely the path ahead. Price should receive a smackdown to the middle band at 4483 and since it is down there it may as well fill the gap at 4450 which is also strong price S/R. The lower band at 4356 is running higher and may form a confluence with the support at 4400 as another downside target for the weakness coming on the daily chart. You get the idea.

Watch the MACD line on the weekly chart since that will tell you the top on the weekly basis and when the multi-week selloff begins. Right now, we are going to experience a multi-day selloff due to the neggie d on the daily chart. Remember, trading is playing multi-dimensional chess and the time frames are the dimensions. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:30 PM EST: S&P futures are up +4. Wheee! Whoopie! Everyone continues buying stocks with both fists.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/27/23, at 2:30 AM EST: S&P futures are up +14. Yee-haw! Whoopie! The party expands.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/27/23, at 4:00 AM EST: S&P futures are up +22. Nasdaq futures are up +1%. Woo-hoo! Wheeee! More Fed wine over here, please. Tech earnings are creating market joy. The ECB rate decision is on tap which will move markets; that should be 8:15 AM EST followed by Madame Lagarde's press conference. Higher euro=lower dollar=higher US stocks and lower euro=higher dollar=lower US stocks.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/27/23, at 5:19 AM EST: Wheeee! Whoopie! S&P futures are up +26. Nasdaq futures +1.2%. Euro/dollar pair pops higher to 1.1137. USD dollar index is down to 100.55 at the lows of the day. The tech earnings, AI orgy and dollar weakness rally continues to begin the day. META pops +8% pre-market. VIX drops below 13 to 12.97. The 2-10 spread is at -96 bips (inversion; 3.87-4.83 = -0.96 percentage points times 100 is -96 basis points or bips) with the US yields at; 2-yr 4.83%, 5-yr 4.10%, 10-yr 3.87%, 30-yr 3.95%. ECB President Lagarde is standing at the free buffet eyeing the bacon, sausage and doughnuts, wiping powdered sugar from her scarf and a jelly stain from her blouse.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/27/23, at 8:00 AM EST: Madame Lagarde is on deck as S&P futures jump higher now up +31. VIX 12.98. Euro 1.1135. USD 100.66.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/27/23, at 8:47 AM EST: Euro drops to 1.1073 and USD up to 101.08 after the ECB raises by a quarter but the orgy in S&P futures continues up +37. META +9%. Here comes Madame Lagarde to begin the ECB press conference.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 7/27/23, at 6:00 PM EST: Whoopies daisies. The SPX drops 29 points, -0.6%, to 4537. The HOD is 4607.07 and LOD at 4528.56 a 78-point intraday reversal with an outside reversal candlestick. Lots of stupid retail traders jumped into stocks this morning, drinking the AI wine, and then they got raped today. Didn't that Keystone guy say that a spankdown was on tap? Everyone was so happy this morning buying stocks with both fists but that joy faded into confusion and regret as the day played out. As Frank sings in The Real Damage, ".... I started out so happy, now I'm hung over and down...." Well, one day does not mean jack. If you bring up the SPX daily chart you see the neggie d firmly in place despite the gap-up this morning so the smackdown was on tap and as the day played out, and thwack, the slapdown begins in the 2-hour and daily time frames. The neggie d spankdown starts on the daily chart as explained above. If you bring up the SPX weekly chart, remember, the MACD still needs to go neggie d, and that is still the case, but you can see the rise in the MACD line today is flattish. If tomorrow is a healthy down day for stocks, that MACD line may slope down on the weekly chart which means the top is in on the SPX weekly chart and this opens the door to the multi-week selloff that is set to begin anytime forward. Watch the MACD on the SPX weekly chart tomorrow and Monday to confirm if the multi-week selloff in the stock market has begun. I love the smell of napalm in the morning. You know, some day this stock market and crony capitalism system is going to end.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Recession Indicator Chart and TOL Toll Brothers Weekly Chart; 7-MONTH US HOUSING RECESSION WORSENS

Keystone continues bringing a wet blanket to the housing party. The US housing recession started at Christmastime and begins its 8th month. The spread of the signal lines is widening in the chart above verifying that the housing recession is worsening (the signal lines are diverging).

It is different this time. With both the housing and manufacturing industries in recession in the United States, the overall economy should follow suit but instead everyone continues partying like its 1999.

The Federal Reserve has made the rich filthy wealthy over the last decade with non-stop easy money printing. There are rich folks buying homes with cash these days. The first-time home buyer does not have a chance. People are staying in their homes enjoying low mortgage interest rates which is an incentive not to move. This creates the low inventory in existing homes and drives prices higher.

The new homebuilders are benefiting as some folks, unable to find and buy an existing home, decide to build anew and companies such as DR Horton, DHI, benefit. Builders are also offering incentives to get the new buyers to commit to a new house. Housing sales drop as the corrupt Fed raises rates. Builders have hunkered down over the last couple years, getting lean and mean, sh*t-canning workers and decreasing new homes under construction. However, the modern-day era of easy money (MMT; modern monetary theory) and rampant corruption and non-transparency continues fueling housing demand.

One in five homes are purchased by corporations (that also account for the cash buyers) a disturbing trend. People are moving to states such as Texas and Florida also creating enthusiasm in the new home market but this activity should fade over time. Commercial real estate remains a growing problem; watch the activity at strip malls.

The housing market must be viewed from the price versus sales perspectives. Typically, they move together but in this goofed-up world of greed, they are not. The soft patch in housing is lower overall sales, however, there is no soft patch in house prices. There lies the conundrum. Keystone used a ten-dollar college word. People saying that the housing sector is no problemmo are only looking at prices and ignoring all other factors at play.

Homebuilder stocks are at record highs as evidenced by DHI, LEN, TOL and the XHB ETF. The low existing home inventory pushes people into buying a new home that they likely cannot afford if they looked at their finances honestly. No matter how strong the recent trend is of home buyers electing to build a new house, most folks cannot afford a new house if they are looking at existing homes in the first place (the privileged elite, upper middle class and foreign buyers are the new home buyers and this is a finite group).

The TOL weekly chart is shown above. The tickers mentioned all have the same look and are topping-out on the weekly basis. The Toll Brothers chart is shown since it is the first one that will roll over. The bell tolls for thee. The red lines show the matching high in price with ALL the chart indicators negatively diverged (sloping lower) signaling that a top is occurring and a multi-week downward slide is set to begin. TOL dumped -6% last week and that trend is expected to continue for several weeks forward (of course the path will be fits and starts but it will be a weekly downtrend ahead).

Note the Aroon on the chart with the green line at 100% and red line at 0%. That's funny. The chart tells you that 100% of the home builder bulls are convinced 100% that the stocks will go up forever and 100% of the bears are also convinced that home builder stocks will go up forever. Everyone is on the bull side of the boat (Titanic). What do you think?

The LEN weekly chart is topping out next over the coming days and then DHI and XHB will top out over the next 2 weeks. DR Horton and XHB continue displaying a long and strong MACD line. They need a jog move (up-down) where price comes up for another matching high and at that time the MACD should go neggie d to call the top on the weekly basis.

The US housing recession is now 7 months along, starting the 8th month, with the indicator lines diverging from each other (worsening). Here is a link to the prior housing market chart. As expected, the joy in Housing Starts data a month ago was revised lower.

Loan rejections are at a 5-year high. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Sounds like the corporations will buy more homes. Robert Shiller says home prices may have topped out but as usual, he weasels all his words and never commits to a direction in housing until after the fact when he then opines about his prescient market calls.

Keystone is not playing the homebuilders currently but obviously the play going forward is on the short side as explained above. If you made a bunch of money riding the home building stocks higher, ditch TOL now, ditch LEN next week and ditch DHI and XHB in a week or two. You do not have to guess. Simply call the top in these extended stocks when price makes a matching or higher high and ALL the indicators go neggie d. Plan accordingly as the homebuilders draw One Last Breath. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 7/26/23, at 6:38 PM EST: Fed Chairman Powell says the housing market is weakening in today's press conference. It went unnoticed. Powell says the Fed staff (not the same as the voting members) are no longer forecasting a US recession. That is big news. Whatever they are smoking, they need to pass it around. 

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utilities Will Dictate the Seriousness of the Pending US Stock Market Drop

Exciting times. In the coming days, we find out how bad the pending pullback in the US stock market will be based on the behavior in the utilities. The utes and stock market have been goin' up, goin' down, goin' up, down, down, up, anyway you want it let it roll, Baby What You Want Me To Do, as Jimmy sings.

The previous UTIL chart lays out the ongoing drama. The 50-week MA, now at the 949 palindrome, and the 15-week lookback number at 971 are key for the week ahead. The following week the 971 is meaningless and replaced by 956. The 949 remains consistent going forward give or take a point. For the week of 7/31/23, that goes into the first week of August, the 956 is meaningless replaced by the 969 palindrome.

Do you see the cluster of closing numbers from 15 weeks ago? All the 15-wk lookback comparison numbers for the next month or so are above 956. Write that down. The 50-wk MA is 949. These numbers dictate the severity of the pending downside in US stocks ahead.

As per the put/call ratios, the stock market complacency and fearlessness is off the charts. The Uber driver said he just went triple-leveraged long. No one believes that stocks can ever go down again. People laugh at recession calls and proclaim that even if a recession occurs, you will never notice it. The AI orgy is in full swing with Silicon Valley tech's dancing around in their birthday suits, only wearing their fleece vests displaying the company logo, buying chip stocks with both fists, then swigging down more Fed wine and Congressional champagne. As this off the charts bullish euphoria continues, bulls opine how they cannot believe how everyone is bearish on the stock market. It's funny. It is the same jackass stuff each time.

So stocks are set to drop and the SPX will fall probably between 150 and 400 points (run of the mill -3% to -10% pullback). The SPX weekly chart will tell you if the top is in on the weekly basis after the price candlestick begins printing tomorrow. Now we get into the fun.

For the week ahead, UTIL 949 and UTIL 971 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand. UTIL begins the week at 928. Keep in mind that UTIL 956 is key next week which is an easier level to achieve and calls out the 949-956 range is the resistance gauntlet for next week. This week it is 949-971. Check UTIL at 4 PM EST on Friday since that closing price will tell you a lot about the following week (does the week ahead finish above or below the 956 and/or the 949?).

Now that your eyes are glossing over, We can simplify things. If UTIL trends lower from 928 and places a lot of distance between itself and 949, that SPELLS MAJOR TROUBLE FOR US STOCKS. Instead of the run of the mill pullback, the US stock market may actually crash and the losses ahead for the coming weeks and couple-few months would be -10% to -50%. Annihilation. People may jump from windows but like Timmy Trader, that jumped from a window on the trading floor during the 2008-2009 crash, hopefully, they will be also be on the ground floor.

If utes drop, it tells you powerful doom and gloom is on the way. If UTIL rallies and moves above 949, it is a big deal. Stocks will still peak and begin selling-off in the days ahead, probably for a few weeks, but the pullback will not be the gloom scenario instead a modest -3% to -10% pullback in US stocks.

If UTIL takes out 949 and then 971 this week, stocks are going to remain buoyant and the pullback will not be that significant. Ditto if price takes out 949, and then takes out 956 and ends the week on Friday above 956, that tells you that the stock market pullback will not be a big deal (and a huge pullback perhaps delayed until the infamous September/October period).

The 200-week at 903 is playing a pivotal role and helping to create the ongoing long-term sideways triangle pattern. If 903 fails, it is likely that the US stock market is going to crash more than -10% during the pending pullback.

UTIL is in a sideways symmetrical triangle pattern and not yet tipping its hand on which side of the triangle it will exit. The stock market is riding on the move from the triangle. Will it drop out the bottom? Price is testing the lower trend line of the pattern deciding to bounce, or die. The thick vertical line of the triangle is from 870 to 1010 that is 140 points. Thus, if price collapses from 903, which will bring on doom and gloom, the downside target for UTIL would be 763 (903-140). Instead, say price bounces above 940 ready to break-out higher, that outcome would target 1080 on the upside.

Summing up the mumbo-jumbo, utilities are in failure mode currently predicting that the US stock market will top out at any day or time forward and begin a long and dramatic downfall (potential crash). This horrific outcome for US stocks can be lessened if UTIL moves above 949 as discussed above. Regional banks will be reporting earnings which may create turmoil. US stocks are going to begin selling off and the utes this week and next will tell you how bad the selloff will become. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

USD US Dollar Index Daily Chart; Positive Divergence Setting-Up; Greenback Loses Key 101-105 Support Channel; Drop in Dollar Creates Stock Market Rally

The green box shows the melt-up rally in the US stock market. The collapse in the dollar pumps commodities, copper and tech stocks higher. Multi-nationals rejoice. People become more excited and want to join the AI orgy. Short-sellers give-up and leave town creating more rocket fuel for the upside in stocks (short-covering rallies).

The bullishness for stocks is off the charts. You cannot find a bear. And comically, the bulls are proclaiming nothing but upside in stocks for the remainder of the year and say everyone is bearish. Wrong. The party is in full swing with everyone on the bull side of the boat cheering the AI orgy on the main stage.

The dollar collapses out of the 101-105 range convincingly but give it a few days to sort things out. Bank earnings begin today, in a couple hours, and then on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is interesting that the new moon peaks Sunday into Monday (stocks are typically weak). The Ukraine War may ramp-up since the side with superior night vision technology will take advantage of the pitch-black darkness.

Early May Keystone highlighted the possie d in play with the dollar and voila, the dollar bounces higher moving towards the 105 as forecast but did not quite get there; the dixie made it to 104.60. The red lines show the neggie d that formed as price continued to make matching or higher highs, so a spankdown was on tap and slap, down she goes. The down move is a 2-leg bear flag pattern so 3 sticks down, then consolidation with an upward bias, then she starts down again from 103 so the target is 100 that is achieved with USD now at 99.46.

So you know the drill. You have to wait for the possie d which will forecast the bounce in the dollar and that will likely begin the rollover in stocks. The RSI and stochastics are oversold agreeable to a relief bounce higher. Note how the MACD, stochastics and ROC are positively diverged across the last 6 months despite the drastic collapse in the dollar in recent days (hinting that more sideways is likely ahead instead of a further collapse).

The histogram is possie d wanting to see the dollar bounce, along with the oversold conditions, so a day of up would be expected, however, the RSI, MACD and ROC are weak and bleak over the last couple days reflecting the downside momentum. They want to see another lower low in price before giving the okay for the dollar to rally higher in the daily time frame.

Today's candlestick has to print but this is an end-of-day chart so this evening you can check the chart. The RSI, MACD and/or ROC may turn possie d today. At any rate, the bottom in the dollar (likely top in the stock market) is only a couple days or so away. The banks will set the mood this morning.

The dollar will likely bounce today and perhaps Monday, so stocks may be weak into and through the weekend, then back up next week as the dollar rolls back over due to the weak and bleak indicators. Next week is OpEx so a Tuesday low typically leads to a Wednesday high (professional traders will be playing this so it is likely that stocks will recover mid-week, in concert with the dollar dropping to put in its final low). From there forward, say mid to late next week, the US stock market will likely start to receive its comeuppance as forecasted by the put/call ratios exhibiting rampant, out of control complacency and fearlessness in the stock market.

Expect more sideways chop in the dollar rather than continued weakness. Price will also need to come up to test the key 101 resistance at some point forward. The dollar is currently trading at 99.76 receiving the lift from the oversold conditions and possie d with the histo. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 7/15/23: USD 99.96. The buck tags 100.02 yesterday. If you bring up the USD daily chart, the RSI is oversold and possie d, the histogram is possie d, ditto stochastics with oversold conditions and also the ROC (all bullish). The MACD line is positively diverged over the last half-year, however, it has that downward momo over the last few days. Thus, the buck will either continue higher here and the MACD line turns up on Monday, or, a jog move is needed (down-up) where the dollar may slump for a day or so printing matching price lows again, and then the upside for the greenback on the daily basis begins in earnest (with stocks dropping). If you bring up the USD weekly chart, despite the humongous -2.3% move lower in the buck (a big currency move) last week, the RSI, histogram, MACD and stochastics are all positively diverged. There is downside momo so USD may languish in this area going forward for a few weeks or couple months, the 200-wk MA is at 98.18 and may want to be touched, but the projection forward through the end of the year and beyond is more sideways and sideways up for the dollar. This makes sense since the recession will be in play, stocks will be trending lower, and the dollar will be flat with an upward bias into year-end. The USD monthly chart wants to see some further lows so that maintains the 98.18 in play and also the 50-mth MA at 98.11. Perhaps stocks sell off over the next month with buoyancy in the dollar and then the buck rolls back over again to print its low for the year in August/September at 97-98 then up from there into year end (that would set up stock market ugliness for October-December).

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts: Rampant Complacency Signals Significant Top in United States Stock Market; Expect a Substantive Collapse in US Equities Going Forward

The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios are signaling ongoing complacency and fearlessness in the US stock market and now they have completely fallen out of bed at multi-year lows. The stock market is printing a significant price high right now and about to begin a substantive collapse. Sell your longs going forward, otherwise, you will be hosed bigtime as the days and weeks ahead play out. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/14/23, at 6:05 AM EST: The bulls are running proclaiming nothing but upside ahead for stocks. Ed Yardeni says SPX 4800 is coming. Goldman Sachs analysts say all-time highs for the SPX are on tap. RBC's Lori Calvasina proclaims joy ahead for US stocks. CNBC business news celebrity Jim Cramer is telling investors not to short stocks. Open your eyes folks. Do you see the rampant complacency? None of the jackasses called the top in the US stock market. Keystone did. Who do you believe going forward? The business news punditry and corrupt financial institutions or Keystone? You have to decide over the coming days.

Note Added Saturday, 7/15/23: TPW Advisory's Jay Pelosky is uber bullish telling folks to buy China, emerging markets, commodities and cyclicals. He decrees to take profits on tech stocks and put that dough into the other sectors. It is all nothing but blue skies and rainbows ahead. Things are going great and only getting better. It's so bright that you gotta wear shades as Timbuck 3 sing. Are you at the bull party drinking Fed wine and Congressional champagne?

META Meta (Facebook) Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Weekly Chart Setting-Up with Neggie-D

Here is the META (Facebook) daily chart. It's cooked. META is about to droop lower like the droopy breasts logo. The red lines show universal negative divergence across all indicators calling a top in the daily time frame. Watch the RSI to see if it squeezes out a tiny new high tomorrow which may provide a couple more days of elevated prices but the indicators want to see a spankdown going forward in the daily time frame.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a retreat in prices. META rings the bell with the upper standard deviation band at 299 with a 3 hundo print today. Bingo. Old guys say bingo a lot. The upper band violation places the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 285 firmly on the table as well as the lower band at 270. The chart also has a rising wedge vibe (bearish pattern).

It is reasonable to expect a pullback to 260-270 going forward. Once the US stock market sh*t pile begins collapsing, stocks have a long way to fall and do not be surprised if the gap down at 150-170 is filled at some point over the next year or two. When that happens you will look like an *sshole considering that you just went leveraged long at 300.

Meta started a 'Threads' app that is supposed to rival 'Twitter', however, there has been other challengers. Comically, no one is talking about 'Truth Social' where King Donnie holds kangaroo court with his Burger King crown on his orange head throwing french fries at Jester Giuliani. Truth Social is a dud and that was supposed to be the answer to Twitter. People, companies and news folks are on Twitter and that is how news is disseminated and it is a tall ask to expect people to move to a new site. People are lazy bastards; that is one of the reasons the country is falling apart. The lazy bastards will remain at Twitter, including Keystone.

The META weekly chart was previously posted with the discussion of the "Tan-Mama" stocks (Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta (Facebook), Alphabet (Google)) also known as the "Magnificent 7."

On the META weekly chart, the RSI is dead flat but trying to sneak out a slightly higher high as price makes the new high. The MACD line is still long and strong as previously highlighted so META needs another down-up (jog move) on the weekly basis to top-out.

So mixing the daily and weekly time frames together, META is set for a pullback in the daily time frame (coming days going forward) but after a move lower this week perhaps next, price will likely recover again and then top-out on the weekly basis as the month ends (anytime over the next couple weeks). This will usher in a multi-week decline probably targeting the 200-week MA support down at 237.

Bring up the 2-hour chart to see if we can pinpoint the top better. Price prints higher highs today up at the 3 hundo level, nose's are bleeding, and the indicators are all neggie d so the top is in on the hourly basis. There is some VST mojo because of the push higher with stocks into the closing bell today so that could add an hour or few of buoyancy tomorrow morning, but overall, expect META to be at a top now on both the hourly and daily basis so she should start dropping. Is META 'feeling like a dead duck' as only the musical master Ian Anderson can sing and perform?

Remember, the weekly chart has a long and strong MACD so watch that closely to determine when the top is in on the weekly basis which will be anytime this week or next. Keystone does not own META long or short but will consider entering short. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NVDA NVIDIA and META Meta (Facebook) Weekly Charts; Overbot; Negative Divergence in Play or Developing for the "Tan-Mama" ("Magnificent 7") Stock Market Leaders

The stock market rally is driven by only 7 stocks. Bloomberg calls this group the "Magnificent 7" but Keystone calls them the "Tan-Mama" stocks (Tesla-TSLA, Apple-AAPL, NVIDIA-NVDA, Microsoft-MSFT, Amazon-AMZN, Meta-Facebook-META and Alphabet-Google-GOOGL). It is summer after all and Mama and the other beautiful and lovely ladies are tanned and toned displaying their colorful bikinis.

The AI orgy creates the big rally in the stock market the 7 stocks above accounting for most of the gains. Other equities languish in no man's land wondering when the recession ax will fall on their heads. NVIDIA ignited the AI frenzy move in stocks so it would make sense that it may top out first.

The NVDA weekly chart above shows price printing matching or higher highs for the last 5 weeks. The chart indicators can then be assessed for potential negative divergence and the red lines show universal neggie d across all indicators. She's cooked on the weekly basis.

NVDA is expected to top-out now since there isn't any more fuel available to push price higher. News may come out of left field that helps the stock but it would then set up again with neggie d in quick order. A multi-week down move is about to begin in NVDA so if you just bought the stock and was bragging to family and friends at the cookout about how smart you are, and perhaps you are the next Jesse Livermore, instead you will look like an *sshole in a few weeks.

The META (Facebook) weekly chart is shown above and it is setting up with neggie d in the weekly time frame. Price is making higher highs week after week but note that the chart indicators are out of gas (red lines) sloping down (neggie d). The MACD is a tiny hair higher so it has some fumes to try and push price back up but the writing is on the wall like NVDA. META will top out now or next week and then begin a multi-week down move.

That is 2 of the 7 that are cooked on the weekly basis going forward so we may as well check the rest of the Tan-Mama's. NVIDIA is the Leader of the Pack and the others should follow. TSLA is similar to META in that it has a week or 2 to top-out and begin its multi-week slide lower. AAPL topped-out 2 weeks ago, however, if you bring up the weekly chart, you see that the MACD line was still long and strong, so Sapple likely has another 1 to 2 weeks for price to come back up and for it to top-out and begin the multi-week move lower.

Mr Softy was also a leader, along with NVDA, and MSFT has topped-out. There is no reason for it to come up again on the weekly basis. AMZN needs the additional week or 2 to top-out since the Scamazon MACD line is still long and strong. Wow. Alphabet (Google: GOOGL) has already sh*t the bed and in a 2-month drop trending lower on the weekly basis.

Summing up, all of the Tan-Mama's, that have led the way higher the last few months, off the October low, are topped-out, or topping-out, on the weekly basis, within the next couple weeks and beginning a multi-week drop lower. GOOGL leads the way lower on the weekly basis followed by MSFT and NVDA. The other Tan-Mama's, TSLA, AAPL, AMZN and META, are also topping-out over the next week or two and will begin their multi-week downward slide. Plan accordingly. Keystone does not own any of the Tan-Mama's long or short but obviously would enter short if any are played. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Utilities Forecast Doom and Gloom Ahead

The utilities are forecasting Hard Times ahead; doom and gloom. When UTIL loses the 50-wk MA and also is below the closing price 15 weeks prior establishing a weekly downtrend, the US stock market will top out within 0 to 8 weeks and begin a devasting collapse lower.

The utilities are in failure mode right now so that zero to 8-week clock is already in progress. Considering the goofiness of the stock market these days, a top may occur any day or week ahead for US equities and, as per the utes, a serious multi-week slide will begin that will crush stocks.

The 50-week MA is at 948. The 15-week lookback number is 939.79, call it 940 (blue circle). Utes are in a weekly downtrend forecasting the doom and gloom ahead for stocks but the bulls can save the day if they push UTIL above 940 this week. That is a tall ask considering price is at 903. The two goals that UTIL needs to attain over the next 4 days are up at 940-950.

It only gets harder for the bulls. For next week the week of 7/17/23, beginning on a new moon (stocks are usually weak moving through the new moon peak each month), the UTIL 15-week lookback comparison number jumps to 970.79 call it 971. That is a very tall ask. And note that for several weeks after, the 15-week lookback numbers remain elevated at 960-ish and higher. Start digging in and preparing your bunker.

Price is down at 903 right now and must rally above 940 by Friday, then next week continue higher to rally above 971 to save the day. Do you think this will happen? You never know in these markets but the betting money would say it is not likely. Utes typically move higher on lower rates and move lower when rates rise. Utilities fund long-term projects for billions of dollars so rates are important.

The stage is set. If UTIL languishes around the current number of 903, and drops below 9 hundo, that portends a bad future ahead for stocks exactly when everybody and his bro, even the Uber driver, is long the stock market.

The stock market rally is driven by only 7 stocks. Bloomberg calls this group the "Magnificent 7" but Keystone calls them the "Tan-Mama" stocks (Tesla-TSLA, Apple-AAPL, NVIDIA-NVDA, Microsoft-MSFT, Amazon-AMZN, Meta-Facebook-META and Alphabet-Google-GOOGL). It is summer after all and Mama and the other beautiful ladies are tanned and toned in their lovely colorful bikinis.

The UTIL 200-day MA is at ..... wait for it ........ wait a bit longer for it .......... 903. Obviously, price is making a bounce or die decision this week at the 200 that is for all the marbles.

UTIL is in a sideways symmetrical triangle pattern and not yet tipping its hand. Price is testing the lower trend line of the triangle deciding to bounce, or die. The thick vertical line of the triangle is from 870 to 1010 that is 140 points. Thus, if price collapses from 903, which will bring on doom and gloom, the downside target for UTIL would be 763 (903-140). Say price bounces and recovers and in a couple-three weeks is up to 940 ready to break-out higher, that outcome would target 1080 on the upside.

Summing up the mumbo-jumbo, utilities are in failure mode currently predicting that the US stock market will top out any day or any week ahead and begin a long and dramatic downfall (potential crash). The SPX weekly chart previously posted indicates that a multi-week top is near so the stars are aligning. Time will tell if the Federal Reserve steps in to save the day, as they always do since March 2009, in America's rigged crony capitalism system.

If UTIL loses the 903 support and is heading lower, it would be prudent to get out of your longs. You will hear Chopin playing his famous tune. The inflation data and bank earnings are on tap this week and will impact market direction. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:37 AM EST: UTIL (DJU) begins trading and is sitting at the 200-day MA at 903 and bottom trend line of the sideways triangle at 903 making the bounce or die decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts; Double-Top or M-Top; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing in Weekly Timeframe

The SPX receives a near-term spankdown as previously explained with the hourly and daily charts. You can see that the 2-leg bull flag pattern plays out. The first leg is 3830 to 4170 or 340 points. The sideways to sideways lower consolidation takes place and then the second leg begins from 4055 so adding 340 is a 4395 target. Bingo. Old guys say bingo a lot.

Also, for sh*ts and giggles, if the second leg begins at 4110, that targets 4450 also achieved so the 2-leg bull is satisfied. The price action then forms the double-top or M-top. No, not a MMMBop, it is an M-top.

The red lines show the negative divergence in play forecasting the neggie d spankdown as previously forecasted for the near-term. Price prints the new high but it comes with all the indicators sloping lower (neggie d) showing that they are out of gas, hence, price drops since there isn't any more fuel remaining in the tank to push the price higher.

Trading is playing multi-dimensional chess so the neggie d spankdown is in the daily time frame. This tells you nothing about other time frames. You have to look at them individually then gather them together for a path forward for price. The indicators remain weak and bleak on the daily chart so further lower lows, on the daily basis, are expected. However, the money flow is flat as price made a lower low so that is positive divergence that hints at a potential bounce setting up (price does not move every day lower until it reverses and then moves every day higher; price has fits and starts as it continues in the direction the divergences dictate).

Note that price has not yet touched the middle band, which is also the 20-day MA at 4382 so it remains firmly on the table as well as the lower band at 4293 that is rising sharply. The SPX daily chart remains bearish but do not be surprised if a touch occurs at 4382 and then price bounces for a day or so to catch its breath.

Expanding the chess board to the weekly time frame, you see price printing matching highs for 3 out of the last 4 weeks. The red lines show negative divergence at play with all the indicators except the MACD which remains long and strong (it still has some fuel, perhaps fumes, in the tank to nudge price back up to the highs on the weekly basis).

The top 2 weeks ago came with the RSI, histo, stochastics and money flow neggie d on the weekly chart so this helps create last week's down move in stocks. However, the MACD is long and strong and says the top on the weekly basis is not yet in.

Thus, the weakness in the daily time frame will need several more days to play out, and then price should come back up due to the long and strong MACD on the weekly basis. When price comes back up in 1 or 2 weeks, the MACD line should go neggie d on the weekly chart, and as long as the other indicators remain weak and bleak, the top will be in on the weekly basis. This is a big deal since it means a multi-week down move is about to begin anytime over the next couple weeks.

Of course, the Federal Reserve may try and save the day as usual, or some other corrupt positive news in the crony capitalism system may occur, which delays the top but that is all it will do; only delay the top by days or another or week or two.

The SPX has not come back to touch the middle band, which is also the 20-wk MA at 4163, in 4 months so it is on the table especially after the top band was tagged. The lower band down at 3841 moving sideways is also on the table for the multi-week down move that is coming. Interestingly, the 200-day MA support is at 3835 moving sideways to sideways up so the 3830-3850 may be a downside magnet over the coming weeks and couple months or so.

The blue and purple lines show the potential outcomes ahead on the weekly basis. The blue path sees price recovering in the week ahead back up to the prior highs, or near there since the chart is weak, and the MACD going neggie d, that will identify the top and then the multi-week down move begins. The purple path shows the continued weakness in the daily time frame making the week ahead a red candlestick and weak week, but then price will recover due to the long and strong MACD and come back up for the multi-week top the following week (if the MACD goes neggie d when price prints the matching or higher high).

So you can see that the daily time frame will be providing continued weakness encouraging the bears but as the daily chart bottoms again, the bears will panic and jump ship, and the dip-buyers will enter, creating the likely up move again. Then, once all the indicators are neggie d on the weekly chart, it's over. Price will fall for many weeks.

Watch utilities. UTIL (DJU; Dow Jones Utilities Index) has to regain 940 this week as a last-ditch effort to prevent a major crash ahead. UTIL begins at 906. Pay close attention. If UTIL languishes in the days ahead, and drops under 9 hundo heading lower, the US stock market will be toast. The multi-week down move will not be a run of the mill -3% pullback, or -5%, or even a -10% correction. The drop will be far more severe, perhaps one for the record books that will have its own Wikipedia page. If UTIL recovers above the 940-950 area over the next week or two, that tells you that the multi-week down move in the SPX will likely not be crash-worthy and instead more minor in nature something like a -3% or -5% pullback.

It will be fun. Let It Drop. In trading, you do not give a sh*t what direction the stock market goes. All that matters is being on the right side of the trade. Take advantage of the crony capitalism system as it breathes its last breaths. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/11/23, at 5:54 AM EST: UTIL cannot get out of bed falling to 903 continuing to cast a dark shadow over the US stock market for the weeks and months ahead. The SPX drops to the 20-day MA at 4388, almost; the LOD yesterday was 4389. Dip-buyers jump in on the test of the 20-day so the session ends on the positive side. Bulls win above 4388. Bears win below 4388. The 50-day MA support is at 4258 and has not been tested since March.