The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Indicator Signals Trouble Ahead

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Indicator signals trouble ahead for the US economy and markets. The unemployment rate is 3.7% moving above the signal line at 3.63% for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic horror began.

After the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve printing money like madmen (monetary stimulus) the unemployment rate finally dips below the signal line during the November 2010 to January 2011 period (not shown on chart). From there forward into the covid pandemic the rate remained below the signal line. The Fed sure knows how to goose the garbage markets and economy in the dirtbag crony capitalism system.

The COVID-19 pandemic hits in early 2020 and the rate explodes above the signal line in April 2020. The rate catapults to 14.7% in May 2020 then begins lower as the crony capitalism system is once again goosed by money-printing. What a joke of a financial system. The obscene Fed and Congressional (fiscal stimulus) spending sends the US unemployment rate lower. Companies hired anyone that wants to work but many walk around with wads of easy money cash in their pockets and purses disinterested in the daily drudgery of a job. Who wants to work when the government is taking care of you?

The happy times (low unemployment rate) continue into 2023 with Americans celebrating the crony capitalism system; a Potemkin Village. On 6/2/23, the US Monthly Jobs Report says the unemployment rate climbs to 3.70% which is a harbinger of doom ahead. Give it a month or two since the signal may reverse as it did in February 2019 but the path forward is likely a higher unemployment rate.

If you are a stupid young person, sit down with your significant other and go through the scenarios of you losing your job, your SO losing their job, and both of you losing your jobs. Can you pay your bills? One of those three things are likely going to happen to you over the coming months. Plan accordingly.

The unemployment rate is an interesting number since it typically pops higher when a recession ends and good times are beginning going forward. This is because the surveys ask folks if they are looking for a job and when more people say yes, and are out there looking around, that data increases the rate but it is actually a good sign. Then after a couple-three months or quarter or so, the rate will reverse and come back down as the economic recovery takes hold and is well underway and people are high-fiving each other at their good fortunes ahead.

That did not happen when the pandemic hit. That jump higher in rates was the worry that the Great Depression Redux was starting but money-printing in the corrupt crony capitalism system always saves the day as it does from 2020 to present. Thus, is the bump higher in the unemployment rate a signal that more people are enthusiastic and excited about getting back to work and that good times are ahead, or, is the rate moving higher for the wrong reasons such as a recession starting?

There are other flies in the stock market ointment. Many people were/are dealing with loved ones that are still suffering ill effects from the COVID-19 virus as well as the vaccines. Others cannot keep up with Biden's inflation created by his stupid war on America's energy complex trying to have aluminum smelters run on solar cells (it is beyond stupid). So it is different this time and not in the same camp as a washed-up beaten-down economy when the pop in the unemployment rate may lead to good things. Quite the contrary, the rise in the unemployment rate is likely due to overstressed and sick Americans having to go back to work to stave off inflation. This is not a happy path forward. Sick, disgruntled and increasingly-poor common Americans do not spend money.

The wealthy and privileged elite do not care since they have raped America's financial system for all its worth over the last five decades especially the last 13 years. It was great if you knew how to, and had the money to, play the game. 30 million Americans screwed the other 300 million since the 1970's and now it is payback time going forward for the months and years ahead. It is the bread and circus days like ancient Rome when everything becomes entertainment (work, politics, family, etc..).

If the unemployment rate continues higher above the signal line in the chart above (over 3.63% and higher going forward), the United States is slipping into recession as stock market sentiment is off the charts bullish. Many pundits are touting how great things are going with blue skies and rainbows ahead after the debt crisis was resolved. People are stupid, and/or corrupt and compromised. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.