UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Battle at the 50-Wk MA at 974 Dictates Fate of US Stock Market

The utilities are broadcasting an epic crash ahead for the US stock market; one for the record books. It will begin at anytime going forward unless the UTIL 50-week MA at 974 can save the day. Thus, this is the last chance corral. It is the bomb technician that is diffusing a device that displays a timer with only 2 minutes remaining. Do I cut the white or green wire? Maybe that red one?

All of you know the drill with the utes. The closing price 15 weeks ago and the 50-week MA are the two key metrics. When utilities are above both metrics, the cyclical bull market is cooking along handing out money to long stockholders like candy. When the utilities lose the weekly uptrend (as measured by the 15-wk lookback), it spells trouble ahead for the US stock market, like now.

When the 50-wk MA is lost, the bottom will typically fall out of the stock market with lots of downside ahead. Keystone calls the UTIL 50-wk MA the trap-door. The chart above clearly shows that the 50-wk MA carries clout. Look at the multiple touches and respect shown to the 50 in June and July.

The 50 is such an important metric  that many algorithms will have these two metrics programmed into their models; Keybot the Quant does. Thus, the 50 deserves a back kiss so that price can make absolutely sure that it wants to head lower. Hence, price comes back up for the back test with a rally over the last 1-1/2 months. It appears inevitable that the back kiss of the 50-wk MA at 974 will occur. Price is at 945 only 29 points away; 3.1%.

Note that the closing prices from 15 weeks ago are all above 1K for the next 5 weeks. It is a tall ask to expect UTIL to rally up through 1K (to place utes back in a weekly uptrend which forecasts better times for stocks) but you never know. Utes may play games for a month with price sneaking up to the 50-wk, while letting the 15-wk lookback numbers come down, providing a showdown at the 974-ish area 5 weeks out (at Christmastime call it back half of December early January).

UTIL 974 dictates the fate of the United States stock market  going forward. Typically, once the utes fail into a weekly downtrend and the 50-wk fails, the US stock market will fall apart into a significant crash event beginning within zero to 2 months after the utes drop. We are at the 2-month mark now so it is time to sh*t or get off the pot.

It makes sense that UTIL is coming up to challenge the 50-wk MA at 974 because there is no more time remaining to save the day. This is it. Last chance. Over the next week or two, this week is screwed-up because of the Turkey Day holiday on Thursday, UTIL will test 974 and either bounce, or die.

If UTIL is rejected at  the critical 974 resistance, and price begins tumbling lower. the US stock market is in a major crash profile. If you own stocks on the long side, you are likely going to lose a Hell of a lot of money. It is serious business and the answer will be known as the calendar changes to December.

If UTIL regains 974 for a healthy back test and manages to venture higher, using 974 as support, that is a buy signal for the stock market. If UTIL can regain 974 and hold above, it will delay the major crash event into 2023.

Now you know what to watch. Keystone is not trading the utes long or short right now. Watch to see if individual utilities such as SO, D, DUK, EXC, etc.., are gaining about +3% since that will tell you that UTIL has a shot at 974. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 11/23/22, at 8:30 AM EST: UTIL ran to 960 yesterday and closed at 953. The 50-wk MA is 974. The 200-day MA is 977. The dance continues.

Note Added Friday Morning, 11/25/22, at 9:06 AM EST: UTIL is at 966 only 8 points away from the 50-wk MA at 974. The SPX finishes at 4027 on Wednesday with a HOD at 4034 only 18 points from the 10-mth MA at 4052. The 200-day MA is 4060. Today is a shortened session with trading until 1 PM EST. Will the SPX give 4052 a love tap today? Will the utes signal the all-clear for bulls with UTIL closing above 974?