SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart

The S&P 500 monthly chart is shown above and it has been quite a ride on the back of the central banker money-printing over the last 13 years. It is obscene. The chart clearly displays crony capitalism in all its glory but the greedy bastards will pay the price going forward for raping the US. The people most worried about the country are the 30 million elite privileged and upper middle class sycophants that screwed the other 300 million. Payback's a b*tch. You ain't seen nuttin' yet.

Keystone called the top in the stock market as the year began. Who said you cannot call tops and bottoms? The people that do not know how to do it. The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and universal negative divergence across all chart indicators made the call simple. The upper standard deviation band was violated so a trip back to the middle band, the 20-mth MA, was needed and occurs. Also, price was way overextended in nosebleed territory with the SPX topped-out at 4819 as the all-time high above the 10-mth MA above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 100 above the 150 above the 200; a perfect moving average ribbon of pending doom (price reversion).

What is going on now? The previous SPX daily chart wants to top out now or over the coming days. The MACD wants one more price high which may be today but it needs to occur with the MACD going neggie d to mark the top. If stocks have a bit more juice in the daily time frame, watch the RSI and MACD which would top-out in the days ahead. The SPX weekly chart is bullish wanting more highs on a weekly basis.

So that brings us to the monthly longer-term timeframe. After a couple weeks of sogginess or choppiness due to the 2-hour and daily charts, stocks should rally for a few weeks into September. At that time the ugliness in the monthly chart will reexert itself. Thus, once the weekly rally peters out and tops, and that will be an easy call when all the chart indicators are neggie d, say in September, maybe October, a nasty drop will begin. Perhaps an epic crash begins sometime in early September. It will be fun.

The short green bar shows stocks bottoming in June and July with a matching price low so the indicators can be studied to see if any possie d exists and it does with the RSI and stoch's so stocks make the relief bounce. Note that as price made the matching lows, the MACD line, histogram and money flow all remain weak and bleak. That tells you there is far more long-term pain ahead for the United States stock market. It is easy to see. It's not rocket science and Keystone knows rocket science.

The RSI dipped its toe into bear territory below 50% but the water was too cold so it wants to stay on the bull side but that is not going to happen; watch to see if the RSI goes sub 50% again which will signal more pain ahead. The stochastics never even got oversold as yet. There is a long way down ahead for stocks on the monthly basis. Price has not even touched the 50 MA and will eventually undershoot the 200 MA down at 2100. Isn't that wild? Price was in the vicinity of the lower standard deviation band but popped higher so it really needs to come down to show the bottom band respect; this is more negativity going forward.

The ADX clearly shows how the rally in 2014 into 2015 was a strong trend higher, then it petered out. Keystone calls the May 2015 top the last legitimate top in the US stock market so it would be expected for price to come back down to this level over the next months or year or two. Note how the ADX peaks lessened as the rallies continued over the years and the price top and 2022 began as barely a strong trend higher and it peters out immediately another reason to call the top back then. The ADX is flattening now and will head higher. As selloffs occur and a few months tick by, watch to see if the ADX moves above the high 20's or 30 since that will signal a strong downward trend in play that will likely continue.

The Aroon shows that traders and investors remain optimistic only worried that they will miss the dip to buy more longs. It's funny. Note the chintzy red negative crosses that only lasted a couple-few months. The Fed and other global central bankers print more money and voila, stocks go up again and the green positive cross occurs keeping the bulls in charge. The green line remains overbot and the red bear line oversold showing that both bears and bulls expect stocks to recover and head back up to healthy high numbers again (contrarian signal). That is not likely instead watch for a negative red cross again which will be another signal that far more doom and gloom is on the horizon.

The four central banker horseman of the coming financial apocalypse, the BOJ (Bank of Japan), ECB (European Central Bank), PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) and the Federal Reserve (Fed; FOMC; United States) are the ghost riders in the sky watching the horror unfold below due to their money-printing and market interventions. Not even Chairman Powell, the world's lender of last resort, riding in on the pale green horse, can save the planet from the pending doom. Human greed destroys all.

One-half of Americans do not own one single share of stock so who benefited from the chart above? Of course the greedy bastards that control the United States, the politicians, corporate executives and their sycophants, made themselves filthy rich while screwing everyone else. The Fed and other central bankers act dovish and print money so stocks will rise rewarding the rich and then when they leave public life, Wall Street investment banks pay the retired public officials triple digit speaking fees to appear at token luncheons, a quid pro quo for their service. Isn't crony capitalism sickening? It deserves to die. It is enough to make you puke.

The 10-mth MA at 4308 and 12-mth MA at 4333 are critically important numbers. If the Fed has something up their sleeve and they begin pumping again and stocks get upside legs, the first important tell is if the 20 MA is taken out at 4255. That would set up a run for the 12-mth MA at 4333 which is one of Keystone's important cyclical stock market indicators. The US stock market remains mired in a cyclical bear market because the SPX is below the 12-mth MA. It would be a big deal if the SPX moves above the 12-mth requiring a recalibration and second look at the chart set up (it will likely only delay the inevitable by a few months).

Thus, enjoy the remainder of the stock market rally on the weekly basis because when that peters out probably 3 to 6 weeks forward, you have to watch the weekly chart develop, the monthly chart will take over and the downside fun will resume. Keystone can call the top in the weekly chart when it occurs if any of you want to know. If not, that is fine, too. Keystone will be having fun. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.