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Wednesday, August 24, 2022

SPX 2-Hour Chart; Falling Wedge; Oversold; Positive Divergence Developing


You can go back and review the prior SPX chart/s to see how the mess is proceeding. The 2-hour chart was setting up with positive divergence and a bottom should occur for stocks at any time with an up move occurring on  the hourly basis. The daily chart remains bearish so the pop will not last long. Then after the daily weakness exhausts say for a few days or a week, the bullish weekly chart will reexert for some upside on the weekly basis.

That is the expected path forward if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was not speaking Friday morning, but he is so he can change the story in a heartbeat.  If Powell causes a commotion, the charts would adjust and likely assume the same posture after a few days of choppy wildness.

So the bottom was expected yesterday, on the hourly basis, or at the latest this morning, and as always, when waiting for all the indicators to go possie d it is like herding kittens. The MACD needed to go possie d and now it is with its flat profile but as we waited for that, the money flow decides to print another low (red). Thus, a candlestick up will occur, but then a candlestick back down because of the money flow, when the chart will likely be in line with possie d, so a couple more 2-hour candlesticks is 4 hours or so. As soon as the money flow goes possie d, likely today, the stock market will begin a mini-rally to satisfy the bullish hourly set-up.

The money flow line is typically a tick behind price so it may be pointing up already so the bottom may be in for stocks, on the hourly basis, right now. Stocks should rally as the day progresses.

Another candlestick prints in a few minutes, it would have been better to get that on the chart but you can figure things out from here. The next candle after that is at noon and then 2 PM EST. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:07 AM  EST: The SPX is down 2 points at 4126. LOD 4120. HOD 4134. The Nazzy Comp turns positive.

Note Added 10:15 AM  EST: The SPX is up 5 points at 4133. Price would need to take out the HOD at 4134 to prove the upside has some legs today.

Note Added 10:17 AM  EST: There you go. The SPX prints a new HOD at 4134.20, check that, 4135.

Note Added 5:45 PM  EST: The SPX finishes up 12 points at 4141 with a HOD up at 4157.

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