SPX S&P 500 Monthly and Minute Charts; Battle at the 12-Mth MA at 4463 Determines Stock Market Cyclical Direction

The battle for cyclical stock market control continues. The SPX 12-month MA at 4463 is the key stock market metric that dictates a cyclical (weeks and months, maybe years) bull market versus a cyclical bear. Keystone calls it the cliff-edge and today Uncle Sam is all liquored-up dancing on the edge of the cliff. There goes a few pebbles and rocks over the edge but it is met with defiant laughter.

The SPX is at 4471 only a few points from disaster. The S&P 500 already broke through but as typically happens on the first try at support, price bounces higher. The SPX should make another run at the important 12-mth MA at 4463. Very bad things are going to happen on Wall Street if the 4463 fails.

If the SPX bounces and the bulls win the day, watch the 10-mth MA at 4506. The bulls would have to run price higher and recover the 10-mth MA as well. If the SPX runs higher but then stalls at 4506, look out Nellie. The SPX will likely tumble lower and slice through the 12-mth like it is not even there unleashing the dogs on Wall Street. Conversely, a rally up through 4506 means there is plenty of upside ahead. There's lots of excitement and fun ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:45 AM EST: SPX 4470. VIX 24.33. Volatility is at a key inflection. If VIX drops from here, bulls are okay and stocks will recover. If VIX moves higher from 24.33, you are about to see some serious ugliness. 

Note Added 10:50 AM EST: SPX 4472. VIX 24.11. Powell has his jackboot on the throat of volatility. Nothing to see here folks, move along, move along......

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/12/22, at 8:30 AM EST: The SPX collapses to 4412 losing the 12-month MA at 4458-4463 ushering in a cyclical bear market. If the stock market does not recover above SPX 4460-ish, it is lights-out and the carnage begins. S&P futures bounce +34 points on the inflation data. Bulls need about 50 points.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/2/22, at 8:38 AM EST: The SPX crashes from the 4471 above to 4063 yesterday a 408 point loss or -9.1% drubbing in less than 3 weeks time. Ouchie.