WTIC West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence Developing

Here is the weekly chart for oil. Remember, it was posted 3 or 4 weeks ago showing the red lines that were set up with negative divergence and overbot conditions so a spankdown was on tap. The only thing that could have changed the picture was a crazy military invasion into Ukraine by Russia that had been amassing troops on the borders for a couple months.

Price rolls over but barely dropped for one week when the crazy happens. Bombs started dropping and the missiles started firing, and the women and children started screaming. Oil prices take off vertically like a rocket. Nymex is at 124.56 up +4.3% today and Brent oil is up to 128.53. Americans are paying $4 per gallon on average at the gasoline pump with some states such as California, at $6 per gallon. Low income and people of modest means are always hurt the most.

Gasoline jumps from 3.70 per gallon last week to $4.07 yesterday and $4.17 today. Keystone asked Frankie at the gas station if they provided an installment plan. It costs 10 bucks in gas to get a cup of coffee that costs 5 bucks. Sleepy Joe Biden will be forever known in history as the modern-day Herbert Hoover.

Anyhoo, back to the chart. The move is parabolic but even an exponential rocket launch has to come back down to Earth. As price makes new highs on the weekly basis, the RSI is overbot and the stochastics are overbot and neggie d (red lines). This favors a pullback in price. The RSI has a sliver more of bull juice remaining. The MACD and histogram remain long and strong and so does the money flow (green lines) so more oil price highs are desired on the weekly basis.

The top is not in until all the indicators negatively diverge. The oil price is obviously driven by the news flow and Russia/Ukraine war but that conflict is in its 13th day and the news is getting baked into the cake. Gyrations are occurring because politicians keep hinting at different measures that will rattle the oil markets. A short time ago, President Biden announces plans to stop buying Russian oil but the Europeans are not going along since they decided to allow dirtbag Dictator Putin to control their energy supplies.

But a lot of the drama is baked in so the chart adjusts and when it sets up with neggie d it will be a great indicator of the top in oil on the weekly basis. The chart is set up to usher in some sogginess in the oil price on a weekly basis (perhaps for a few days) but price will want to make more new highs because the indicators are long and strong. The new highs in oil prices may be marginal and, say 2 and 3 weeks out. When the RSI, MACD, histo and money flow turn neggie d (oil price continues higher but the indicators slope lower), the top will be in for oil probably 2 or 3 weeks away. The chart will let you know when the top is in.

Keystone is not trading in the oil arena or any of its derivatives currently but will consider a short probably 2 or 3 weeks out. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 3/13/22: Oil runs to 130.50 last week and retraces to 103.63 and then ends the week at 109.33. So this is the sogginess due to the neggie d with the RSI and stochastics and overbot conditions of each. The MACD, histogram and money flow, however, remain long and strong, so price is going to want to come back up again for a matching or higher high, on the weekly basis. The top in oil is not in on the weekly basis until all the weekly chart indicators go neggie d.