SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Bull/Bear Battle Continues at 10-Month MA at 4484

The NYA falls below its 40-wk MA ushering in a cyclical bear market ahead but the SPX remains above the 12-mth MA at 4433-4435 proclaiming that the cyclical bull market remains in play. One of them will flinch.

In the mean time, the SPX 10-mth MA is very important. It is an early warning signal for the US stock market. The rally over the las week sends the SPX to the moon flying up through the 12-mth and 10-mth and now price comes back down for a back kiss of the 10-mth MA at 4483.57. The SPX is at 4483.54 the same number so it is bounce or die time.

The bulls win big if the SPX bounces higher off a successful back test of the 4484 support. The bears win if the SPX falls through the 4484 support which will then become resistance again and point to a retest of the cliff-edge at the 12-mth MA at 4433. So a lot is riding on today's action. The bears better get busy if they want to start trouble. The bulls must simply hold the line at SPX 4484 and then push the NYA above its 40-wk MA. Who will win? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:13 PM EST: Die? SPX 4481.

Note Added 1:20 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. SPX 4477. Poke it with a stick. It may be dying. ... SPX 4475..... 4474 ...... The VIX pops to the 23.32 palindrome but it is not near the 24.03 HOD so the drop in prices is not a big deal until volatility takes out the high.

Note Added 1:27 PM EST: SPX 4468. VIX 23.62. The bulls are running around bumping into each other asking what is wrong? Bears need the VIX over 24 or they got buptkis.

Note Added 3:30 PM EST: SPX 4473. VIX 23.16. The VIX pops to 23.80 then falls on its sword. The bears got buptkis but continue to apply pressure after stabbing down through the 10-mth MA at 4483-4484. Bears need higher volatility. Bulls need SPX above 4484. Which side will step-up during the last half-hour of trading?.

Note Added 3:36 PM EST: SPX 4471. VIX 23.17. The NYA is in retreat collapsing to 16606 below the 40-wk at 16685 confirming a cyclical bear market ahead. 

Note Added 3:42 PM EST: SPX 4463. VIX 23.50. The SPX is only 30 points from the cliff-edge 12-mth MA at  4433 and if it fails a second time, it will be lights-out for a very long time with carnage.

Note Added 3:45 PM EST: The VIX is spanked lower down to  23.14 so the SPX recovers to 4475 in a heartbeat. The S&P 500 may make a run at the 10-mth MA resistance at 4484 which would be bull victory. 15 minutes remaining so it is time to lay down your cards. The Fed has its jackboots on the throat of volatility making sure the stock market remains elevated. Will that jackboot slip?

Note Added 3:55 PM EST: The SPX drops to 4460 but the Fed maintains its jackboots on the throat of volatility holding the VIX at 23.43.

Note Added 4:01 PM EST: The SPX drops to 4456 to end the day with the VIX at 23.59 but still settling. You will have to watch the VIX tomorrow morning at 3 AM EST when it comes on line to see if the bears can push it above 24, or not. Volatility will set the mood for the entire Thursday session like candlelight and a Barry White song sets the mood for an evening.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/24/22, at 4:00 AM EST: VIX is at 23.64 with S&P futures up +15. The SPX ended at 4456 on hump day so the bulls need 28 points to get above the 10-mth MA at 4484 and signal the all-clear for longs. VIX is up and futures are up so one of them is wrong. The battle between the SPX 12-mth MA at 4433 (calling for a cyclical bull market ahead) and the NYA 40-wk MA at 16684 (calling for a cyclical bear ahead) continues. One of them will flinch and then you will know the US stock market direction probably through the rest of the year.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/24/22, at 4:09 AM EST: Bingo. VIX goes negative dropping to 23.33 and S&P futures pop higher up +27 points so it is obvious that the bulls want that 10-mth MA at 4484 to prove they are the ones to follow forward.