Gold receives a multi-week rally out of the sideways symmetrical triangle shooting higher to 193 matching the prior highs during August 2020. Unfortunately, for gold bulls, the matching price high comes with negative divergence across the indicators (red lines). if the move had a lot of legs higher the indicators should be long and strong. The MACD is moving flat trying to create some excitement but the sideways move over the last month may be out of gas.
The ADX was way above 30 (pink box) in2020 proving that the rally was a strong trend higher. That strong trend higher evaporated in Fall 2020 after gold topped in August. The ADX is down at 20 now and showing ever since the start of 2021 that gold price is meandering sideways without any strong trend in place up or down. For the rally to continue higher, the ADX is going to need to run higher above 30 but it looks like it is already losing oomph.
The Aroon shows the green line in euphoric bull territory and the red bear line at zero wallowing in the bear cellar. This tells you that the gold bulls are bulled-up beyond belief and think that gold price is ready to go to the moon. What typically happens is the price reversal like the start of 2021.
If a bull, the stock is not making you happy. Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so a move back to the middle band at 173 and rising, is on the table as well as the lower band at 161 moving sideways.
The blue sideways symmetrical triangle shows a 24 point height on the end and an 18-point height with the second to last touch of the triangle. Thus, price breaks out of the triangle higher at 172 so 190-196 is the target. Bingo. It happens fast in only a months time. But that may be the whole shining glory already played out.
Gold, oil, commodities, bonds, even stocks are trading whacko these days with the Russia/Ukraine War, China lockdown and other drama. Alzheimer Joe stirs up controversy on the weekend calling for Putin to be stripped of power but his handlers say he didn't mean it, just kidding.
The news has great impact on prices so gold could continue the rally easily if there is bad news on the doorstep, as Don would sing. If a nuke is detonated, or Heaven-forbid President Zelensky would be injured or killed, gold would likely fly like a rocket. However, technical-wise, gold is not attractive as a long play.
Since Keystone just took a dump in the gold bull's Cheerio's he may as well pile on the monthly chart as well. GLD is in negative divergence on the monthly chart hinting at lingering long-term weakness. Gold will likely move sideways through the year with a downward bias but as mentioned, serious negative news in the US or abroad can quickly turn the picture around. Keystone is currently not trading gold, silver or any of the PM's long or short. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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