SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Bulls and Bears Battle for Cyclical Stock Market Control at the Cliff-Edge the 12-Month MA at 4394

Do you remember this SPX Monthly chart from a week or two ago? Do you remember when,... we used to sing Brown-Eyed Girl? That was the initial stab at a stock market collapse for giggles. Now it is time to get down to business as the S&P 500 comes down for another test of the 12-mth MA at 4394, the cliff edge for the stock market. The critical 10-mth MA at 4458 fails signaling huge trouble ahead and a likely test of the 12 and that is now occurring.

Stock market bulls need a big bounce here or they are going to get massacred. If SPX 4394 fails, your life going forward will change forever. If the SP 500 fails at 4394, it will usher in a long-term bear market. The NYA 40-week MA cross is already signaling a long-term bear market ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:56 AM EST: The bulls and battles are in an epic battle and comically, the majority of market participants, let alone the public, do not even understand what is occurring. The current price action is for all the marbles. SPX 4394 is the line in the sand. Stock portfolios will leap off the cliff and crash into the sea if 4394 fails.

The SPX comes down for a test at 10 AM EST and bounces, the rolls over and comes back down again, and punctures 4394 at 10:15 AM EST, but the bulls pull it back up again. Then the SPX drops again falling through the 4394, a failure, at 10:31 AM EST. It is an all hands on deck situation. The  bulls jam it higher again at 10:42 AM EST. Both sides are exhausted and it is not even munch time as yet. The SPX staggers sideways at 4396 like a drunk in Times Square.

Note Added 11:01 AM EST: Another rupture. Bears, if you want to crash the market it is on a silver platter for you, simply pick up the knives and start slicing. The SPX is at 4390 falling off the cliff. Each minute the SPX is under 4394 is another nail in the bulls coffin and the more nails that are pounded, the less likely the bulls will rise again.

Note Added 11:06 AM EST: WHOA. MAYDAY! MAYDAY! UTILITIES FAIL. UTIL COLLAPSES THROUGH ITS 15-WEEK LOOKBACK AND FAILS AT THE 50-WEEK MA. IT'S OVER. A BIG DROP SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE STOCK MARKET. TAKE COVER! The 50-wk MA for UTIL is 914 and price is at 911. Watch it closely We are going to crash if UTIL remains sub 414. This is fun. Fantastico. Keystone is holding a scythe, the blade glistening in the winter sun.

Note Added 11:16 AM EST: The plunge protection team enters and whoosh. The SPX jumps above 4397 in a heartbeat back onto the ledge. The bulls breathe a sigh of relief. Keystone stands pat with the scythe at the ready, but first the bulls are staging a come back. It does not matter how high the SPX bounces if UTIL remains sub 914. If utilities remain in the fail position, the whole ship of fools is going to go over the falls today. SPX 4401. Whoa. UTIL 908, no, check that, 907. Excuse me folks, Keystone has to place the crash helmet on his head and fasten the shoulder harness on the computer chair. Okay, here we go.

Note Added 11:24 AM EST: Bulls cheer with SPX at 4405 now putting distance from 4394 receiving relief. Bears cheer because UTIL drops to 907.

Note Added 11:29 AM EST: The SPX jumps to 4410 with bulls back-slapping each other thinking the worst is over. UTIL recovers to 911 nowhere near 914. This is going to be fun.

Note Added 11:33 AM EST: SPX 4406. UTIL 910. The tension mounts.

Note Added 12:24 PM EST: SPX 4412. UTIL 913. Utilities come up to back kiss the 914 at 12:03 PM EST and are spanked back down 912 so the bears cheer. The bulls push UTIL up to 913 again and are going to make another try at the 914 resistance to try and save the stock market. The stock market will recover if UTIL pops back above 914, but if UTIL remains under 914 and begins dropping, the entire stock market will collapse lower. UTIL is deciding; here it is another test of 914 for all the marbles. 

Note Added 12:29 PM EST: SPX 4416. UTIL 913.84.

Note Added 12:33 PM EST: Bulls jamming SPX to 4424 trying to solidify a recovery. UTIL 914.31.

Note Added 1:00 PM EST: Bulls jam UTIL to 916 regaining 914 so the relief rally maintains a solid footing. The bulls keep the bears at bay. UTIL  916.51. SPX 4424.The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out telling each other to go quadruple long. The PPT pumps UTIL to 918. Nothing to see here folks, move along, move along. Show's  over folks, move along, move along.

Note Added 2:35 PM EST: The utilities roll over and UTIL falls back below 914 so the SPX loses the intraday gains sinking under 4400 then collapse through the critical 12-mth MA, the cliff edge, at 4394 to 4388. Both are performing a back kiss right now the SPX coming back up to 4394 and struggling while UTIL is battling at 914 for all the marbles. If UTIL starts dropping again, a crash is on the table. UTIL is at  914.72. This is fun. The fate of the United States stock market is at hand and few understand what is happening.

Note Added 2:42 PM EST: The SPX is at 4387 but that weakness does not matter if UTIL moves above 914 and higher. UTIL is at 916. The utilities will prevent the stock market from falling but if UTIL 914 fails, whoopsies, now at 914.92, run for your lives. The last 65-minute trading segment begins at 2:55 PM EST so watch the 2:50 PM to 3:00 PM time to see if the robots come in with extensive sell, or buy, programs (price may pivot from this time range). SPX 4389. UTIL 915.33. The tension builds.

Note Added 2:55 PM EST: The SPX is back testing 4394 and UTIL is continuing to battle at the 914 demarcation line between market joy and extreme sorrow.  SPX 4391.83. UTIL 915.08.

Note Added 3:06 PM EST: SPX 4380. UTIL 914.74. The banks are another ongoing drama impacting stock market direction. Watch XLF 39.48 with price now at 39.53 only a hair bullish like utes. It is decision time for the US stock market right now.

Note Added 4:30 PM EST: SPX finishes at 4401 above the life-changing cliff-edge 12-mth MA at 4394 the bulls win. UTIL finishes at 917 above the vital 50-week MA support at 914 the bulls win. XLF finishes at 39.66 above the critical 39.49 line in the sand the bulls win. All 3 bull wins today are flimsy and suspect so the battle will continue tomorrow. In addition to UTIL 914, the 918.63 is also uber important. If UTIL would have came up today and closed above 919, that would have been a big bull signal, but it did not. See if it does tomorrow, or, if UTIL fails through 914 again. The bulls win today's battle but this war continues all week long. The bulls and bears rest in their camps tonight wondering if tomorrow will be a bloodbath. And like the Civil War days, off in the distance, a lonely harmonica plays Shenandoah that echoes through the valley. The fate of the bulls and bears will be decided tomorrow by UTIL 918.63, UTIL 914, XLF 39.49 and SPX 4394. If UTIL moves above 919, the bulls will be in great shape and the only remaining roadblock to upside euphoria is the SPX 10-mth MA at 4458. If the SPX loses 4394 and remains below, there will be stock market carnage and your life will be a lot different than you expect over the next year or two.