NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Battle for Cyclical Stock Market Control at the 40-Week MA at 16707 Continues

Whoopsies daisies. The prior NYA chart explains the importance of the 40-week MA at 16707 which identifies a cyclical (weeks and months) bull market for stocks versus a cyclical bear market. 3 weeks ago, NYA fails through the 40-wk so the bears cheer but then price bottoms last week. The NYA recovers and this week comes back up to back kiss the important moving average and voila, the bulls win the test and price pokes above the 40-wk signaling Happy Days ahead. 

Alas, the joy only lasts for a day or so and yesterday, Thursday, the NYA drops below the 40-wek MA at 16707 a bad development especially since it is occurring  on the back test. Price begins Friday at 16677 which is 30 points below the critical 40-week MA at 16707 so the short-sellers are happy waving the bear banner.. The US Monthly Jobs Report is imminent and may send futures wildly in one direction or the other.

The bears need weaker banks if they want to flip the stock market south again. Watch the banks. Watch XLF.

If the NYA remains below 16707 going forward, the stock market is headed for a blood bath as well as a sustainable bear market.

If the NYA pops above 16707 and  remains above going  forward, the stock market is going to be running higher in search of new record highs. NYA16707 is for all the marbles and Friday begins at 16677 signaling a cyclical  bear market for stocks going forward. Will the bears keep the negativity going or will they fold like a cheap suit? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:04 PM EST: The bulls are rallying stocks and pump the NYA above 16707 punching the bears in the face. Can the bulls hold on to the 40-week MA at 16707, or will price come back down and collapse through 16707?

Note Added 1:43 PM EST:  Woohoo! The bullish orgy goes wild with NYA popping to 16747 the HOD.

Note Added 2:48 PM EST:  The NYA remains elevated at 16740 with the HOD at 16764. The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed-out. A pivot may occur in here, between now and 3 PM since the last of the 65-minute trading segments begins at 2:55 PM and new buy, or sell, programs may hit the tape in this window (next 12 minutes).

Note Added 3:27 PM EST: The pivot is higher and the rout is on. The NYA jumps to 16816 the HOD. The bulls throw confetti. The banks remain strong.

Note Added 4:39 PM EST: Whoopsies daisies. The bulls were puffing their chests out all afternoon long proclaiming that they are in charge of stocks but at 3:30 PM EST, the bulls slip on a banana peel. In the final 26 minutes, the NYA plummets from 16817, the HOD, down to 16701.58 collapsing through the critical 40-week MA at 16707. The bulls are stunned, seeking out the nearest tavern to drink their sorrow away. The bears are joyous. The NYA closes below the 40-week MA at 16707 so a cyclical bear market is our fate ahead.