TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield 2-Hour Chart; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

The TNX 2-hour chart starts a new candlestick from 10 AM EST. The TNX daily chart is in negative divergence with today's 6 basis point pop in yields. The expectation was for yield to come back up to the highs again so the daily chart would set up negatively and it is now performing that function. The 10-year yield is set to top-off now and slump over for a few days forward. 

Perhaps the 2-hour can pinpoint the top in yield (bottom in price). Price has momentum from this gap-up move in yield. Today's two candlesticks thus far show matching price highs and higher highs than the highs earlier in the week. The chart indicators are in neggie d so the top in yields is now although watch that momo in the stochastics. The note and bond bears (that want lower bond prices and higher yields) expect the 10-year to climb and climb with many strategists calling out 2% as a given.

Yield will slip back for a few days from here. Reference the prior TNX chart for  more information. The TNX weekly chart is still long and strong so after a pullback on the daily time frame, a few days, yield will want to come back up again likely to the 1.62%-1.69% range. At that time say in a couple weeks we can see if yields are topped out on a weekly basis.

The upper band is violated and price is extended so a move back to the middle band at 1.55% is very reasonable during the days ahead. The lower band at 1.50% is also on the table and the solid support at 1.47%. If the stock market falls over, yields will likely fail as traders seek perceived safety in Treasuries, the dollar will likely move sideways to sideways higher and gold and commodities sideways to sideways lower. Not one analyst looks for this outcome.

Everyone is too busy fine-tuning their forecasts that yields will move non-stop higher it is only a matter of how high and as that occurs, the stock market will suffer, so the expectation is the Federal Reserve may have to step in to dampen the rise in yields. Everyone is talking a scenario that is more likely at the end of this year, or in 2022, or in 2023. By then, the inflation will be kicking in and of course once the velocity of money kicks in hyperinflation, and a whole new set of problems will occur, but we have to survive the next year or so first.

The next couple months is likely a lower yields story (once the weekly tops out late this month or early April) and lower stock market going forward. The Fed may be faced with more loosening measures rather than tightening which would blow every analyst out of the water on Wall Street. Do you think confidence would then be completely lost in the Fed and other central bankers? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:56 AM EST: 10-year yield 1.618%.