By K E Stone (Keystone)
The good news is that over 101 million doses of vaccine are
administered in the United States. The CDC says about 66 million Americans have
received one dose and about 35 million people (11% of the US) are fully
vaccinated with two doses. President Biden promised 100 million shots within
the first 100 days and he easily achieves the goal, as everyone knew he would.
The bar was set so low, on the floor, that even the near-octogenarian Biden
could easily step over.
Americans are vaccinated at the rate of 2.3 million doses
per day that increases by 100K shots per week for the last month. 133 million
vaccine doses have been delivered across the US and its territories. During the
Thursday night speech, Biden said that enough vaccine will be available by
5/1/21 to inoculate all American adults.
Biden says he hopes that America will be independent from
the virus on Independence Day. The president wants to keep reducing the number
of daily coronavirus cases and deaths so Americans can enjoy small party
gatherings on Independence Day July 4th. That is very king of him to bestow
potential liberties upon the huddled masses, but the US is supposed to be a
free country, and after over one year of pandemic chaos, confusion and
disorganization, Americans will likely do what they feel like doing on July 4th
regardless of what Biden says. Right?
(Americans! Rise in defiance of the draconian edicts and shoutthe Animal House rally call to action! Party!) In all seriousness, Americans
are getting sick of government bureaucrats telling them what they can and
cannot do in a so-called free country. Especially when the messaging has been
confusing over many months.
Now the not so good news. America is on a euphoric high
right now. The stock market is pumped to record highs on US Congress and
Federal Reserve easy money. The positive trend in COVID-19 data has everyone in
the first good mood in over a year. Springtime is blossoming and love is in the
air. What could possibly go wrong?
The US reports 67K daily new cases for Friday, yesterday,
3/12/21, the fifth consecutive day of rising daily cases. The data and charts continue
to paint a mixed picture but this pivot point area will be resolved in the days
ahead. The data can be painted in both a positive and negative light. Let’s
look at the negatives first because 5 days of rising cases is not good.
The US daily new cases chart above shows the 67K cases from
yesterday that are greater than the 7-day MA at 57K. The moving average (MA) is
a smoothing mechanism for the data that helps identify trends. The 7-day MA
smooths-out the data over the last 7 days while the 3-day MA smooths-out the
data for the last 3 days. The choppiest data is the daily data (the bars) and
then each moving average increase creates a smoother trend line. Short-term
trends are identified by the 3-day MA while longer-term trends can be assessed
with the 7-day MA or a 20-day MA.
The US daily new cases are above the 7-day MA for 3
consecutive days so the 7-day MA will curl higher if the daily cases continue
above 57K. Obviously, this would be devastating news. America must pound the
daily cases below 57K immediately and for every day ahead, otherwise, trouble
is likely.
On the positive side, the weekend is here so the data may
lighten up for a couple days. The Friday data is typically the largest numbers
probably due to the way the numbers are reported and compiled so it is helpful
to focus on the trend of the Friday’s alone. Although yesterday’s Friday data
is 67K new cases, the prior Friday’s data, 3/5/21, is 69K. This is positive
because the Friday data is trending lower albeit by only 2K.
Thus, next Friday, 3/19/21, the daily new cases need to be
below sub 67K, and obviously everyone wants the cases far lower than that and
under 57K, to prove that happy times are ahead. If the daily new cases on
3/19/21 are 70K and higher, America is screwed.
The 3-day MA is shown in the US daily new cases chart above creating
spaghetti to look at but you can separate the trend lines out at the
Worldometer site. For a trend to be truly moving lower, there must be lower
lows and lower highs consistently occurring every step of the way. The 3-day MA
can help you ascertain this trend. Everything was rosy, leading to the optimism
in the US currently, after the January peak in cases and big drop-off. The
3-day MA shows lower lows and lower highs.
Trouble occurred on 2/26/21 when the 3-day MA took out the
prior high to the upside. This says the trend lower has ended and the chart may
begin moving higher again which is bad news. Fortunately, this sideways stumble
resumed to the downside. In that chart spaghetti, the 3-day MA peak number from
3/5/21 is 68K cases. The 3-day MA is now at 64K and climbing higher. If the
3-day MA moves above 68K, that is bad news because it means the trend of lower
lows and lower highs has ended. You will know the result and path ahead this
week (this only pertains to the 3-day MA numbers).
In general, for every day forward, the 57K to 69K range for
daily new cases is critical. Take a purple crayon, since they taste the best,
and draw a thick line across the US daily new cases chart above. The United
States wins big and a solid positive constructive path is ahead as long as new
cases drop below 57K heading lower.
However, America is falling down the covid rabbit hole into
misery and despair if the daily cases begin running above 69K per day and
higher. Inside the 57K to 69K range is noise with good and evil battling it out
and deciding the fate of the USA in 2021.
Here are the actual daily new case numbers if you want to
keep a close watch on the data; 3/5/21 is 69K. 3/6 is 59K. 3/7 is 45K the low
number in the series. 3/8 is 45K. 3/9 is 56K. 3/10 is 61K. 3/11 is 63K. 3/12 is
67K. The 7-day MA is 57K but of course this will be different tomorrow. The
daily new cases must drop sub 57K immediately or America will be screwed with
another covid wave of misery.
The China Flu has infected 120 million people worldwide. The
pandemic, originating in Wuhan, China, has killed over 2.65 million people on
earth. It is bioterrorism in real-time. 96.3 million global citizens have
recovered from coronavirus. 80% of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame. This number steadily improves by over 6
percentage points over the last month. People around the world are recovering
incrementally faster from COVID-19. The medical community is more skilled at
treating covid than one year ago when the pandemic started. 4 out of every 5
people that contract covid around the world recover. 1 in 5 people have
lingering effects from the Wuhan Flu, or they die.
Worldwide, 2.2% of the people that are infected with covid
die. This number is unfortunately sticky (remaining steady at this level). 1 in
every 45 people that are infected with COVID-19 around the world, will die, and
this number has not changed over the last month. 1.6% of the world’s population
of 7.67 billion people (1 in every 64 people; slightly worse over the last
couple weeks) has been infected with coronavirus. Sadly, the variants are
likely the reason for the slight uptick in the global infection rate.
Coronavirus was released by the CCP (China’s Communist
Party), either intentionally or accidentally, from one of its two secretive
bioweapons laboratories in Wuhan, China (the press and WHO only visit one lab;
the communists deny the existence of the second lab).
In the United States, 30 million people are infected with
covid. Over 545K Americans are dead. 22 million Americans have recovered from
covid. This equates to 74% of US citizens recovering after becoming infected
with COVID-19 a healthy increase in the recovery rate. 3 out of every 4
Americans that contract covid recover which is a nice improvement from 2 out of
every 3 citizens a month ago.
America’s recover rate is not as good as the world’s average
at 80% but it is getting close. This is likely in part due to the obesity
problem in America which leads to heart and lung issues, and diseases such as
diabetes, that place the person at a disadvantage once they catch covid.
Americans need to do push-ups. Push yourself up away from the dinner table! 1
in 4 Americans have lingering effects from coronavirus, or die.
In the US, 1.8% of the people infected with COVID-19 die and
this number remains sticky like the global death number. Interestingly, the
recovery rates improve around the world and in the United States, however, the
mortality rates are not improving. The death rates sustain themselves day after
day week after week. 1 in every 56 US citizens that are infected with coronavirus
will die.
If the doctor tells you that you have covid, place a deck of
playing cards face down on the kitchen table. The Ace of Spades is the death card. Mix the cards face-down on the surface
of the table. Pick one card and turn it
over. If it is the Ace of Spades, you will die of covid. If it is any other card, you will live. The death rate in the US is better than the
world’s average at 1 in 45 likely due to better medical care. If 45 people are standing in a room and the doctor tells the group they all test positive for coronavirus infection, everyone looks around because they know that one of them will die.
9.1% of the American population of 330 million people have
been infected with covid. 1 in every 11 Americans have been stricken with
coronavirus a terrible number and stunning statistic. The minority communities are
impacted disproportionately since they tend to live in higher populated areas.
There are also less job opportunities for minorities in the crony capitalism
system so the lack of money necessitates stretching the family budget and
consuming less healthy foods that exacerbate other health issues such as
obesity.
There are more people sick and dead from COVID-19 in the
minority communities as compared to a white upper class McMansion neighborhood.
A recent AP poll reports that 1 in 5 Americans have lost a loved one to
coronavirus. For Blacks and Hispanics, this worsens to 1 in 3 having lost a
loved one to the China Virus.
As preventive measures to keep the immune system in tip-top
shape, consider taking zinc and vitamin D-3. Vitamins A and C are also helpful
and turmeric. All of these should be part of a daily regimen regardless of
coronavirus. As always, check with doc before mapping-out any vitamin and
supplement program.
There are many non-mainstream treatment concepts that can be
explored with your doctor such as using selenium (a cancer-preventive
supplement; medical studies are ongoing) as a preventive measure,
hydroxychloroquine (medical studies show it to be useful only as a preventive
measure; the reports indicate that hydroxychloroquine is worthless and
ineffective once the disease is contracted) and/or ivermectin (horse deworming
medicine that is being used extensively across South America with strong success).
Also, the MATH+ protocol is referenced by many doctors that are seeking any
help possible to save patients’ lives.
Diet is also a key to battling coronavirus. Looking at the
data, the comparisons between Asian nations and Western nations of similar
populations is stunning; jaw-dropping. In example after example, the Asian
countries consistently have far lower virus case numbers and deaths compared to
Western counterparts with all other parameters equal as possible.
If there was ever a case for a non-gluten diet this is it.
Asian folks eat beans, squash, seaweed, rice, sweet potatoes, fish, all the
stuff a typical American does not like as they stuff pasta, bread, wheat and
oat products, and beer, into their pie-holes. Yes, pie, too. It is obvious what
you need to eat to be healthy and an Asian-style diet will also keep the immune
system in great shape. It takes will power.
The best virus prevention measure is to simply stay as far
away as possible from people. If you practice this ‘extreme social distancing’
and choose to get the vaccine, you will be in great shape and not have to worry
about contracting covid.
The big concern remains the five major coronavirus variants
at play; the UK strain B117, the South Africa variant B1351, Brazil strain
B11248 or P1, New York variant B1526 and California strain B1427/B1429 (as
previously mentioned liberties are taken with the nomenclature so if you are
scientifically-minded, consult the medical journals and papers).
The vaccines are effective against the UK strain but less-so
for the South Africa strain which is also a more deadly strain. The new Novavax
vaccine is only 55% effective (which is actually good for a vaccine) against
B1351. The variants present a major challenge for the world ahead.
The first troubling virus jump from animal (mink) to human
was in Denmark last year and that variant is dubbed “Cluster 5.” The
progression of COVID-19 starts with the original virus D614G wreaking havoc
over the last year. The Cluster 5 is the first serious mutation in Denmark last
year. Then the UK B117 hit England hard. B117 is now the dominant strain
spreading in the United States. The South Africa B1351 variant and Brazil’s P1
appear. And now, within the US, on the East Coast, the New York B1526 strain
appears, and on the West Coast, California’s B1427/B1429 appears. If one of the
US strains worsen and spread, we will have to dub the outbreak the America Flu. In New York, one-half of the positive covid tests are either B117 or B1526. This is concerning.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple approach to predicting when the
active cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower which represents
the maximum stress on the medical system and healthcare workers followed by better
days ahead.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Japan and South Korea are in this group. Also New
Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you
identify the trend of the data as explained above.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart. The US daily new cases chart is shown and explained above.
For the US active cases chart above, the peak on 1/31/21 is
holding and the chart is rolling-over to the downside to form the bell shape,
sort of. Each day is another tiptoe through the covid minefield. The US active
cases curve has rolled over to start to form the bell shape but needs to drop
more to prove itself. The US active cases curve remains hesitant to form the
bell shape so we cannot ring a bell of victory yet.
If the US active cases curve curls upwards, a la the red
path, that will be a dagger through America’s heart. For now, the US is hanging
in there on the blue path but after the discussion above with the daily new
cases, the jury remains out. The daily new cases will resolve this week, one
way or the other, and that will send the active cases curve in the same
direction. Keep your fingers crossed.
Spring break from universities is underway and will run over
the next month. This weekend, the beaches are filled with mask-less young folks
enjoying youth. The young ladies dance about in colorful bikinis while the
young men stand nearby, eyes wide, jaws dropped, mustering up the courage to
talk to their smart and pretty peers. Coronavirus loves hugs and kisses. The
young folks will return to their home states after interacting with hundreds of
others and this activity may lead to a superspreader event.
1.4 million people went through checkpoints at American
airports yesterday the most robust travel day since the pandemic started. The
beaches are packed. Men are walking around bare-chested but they should spare
everyone their pale potbelly and put on a tee shirt. Women are walking around
in bikinis that do not appear to fit them properly; someone hand them a
cover-up. Everyone is mask-less. The airlines serve as the distribution
vehicles for the potential superspreader. All airport facilities are clean and
they take the covid guidelines seriously but people infected are using planes
to travel and the airports will be blamed if an outbreak occurs.
Easter is 4/4/21 which will be a party weekend. Americans may
have been resigned to spending a quiet Sunday at home but with the newfound
optimism occurring and states removing covid guidelines, people are going to
want to party from now through Easter weekend. Yee-haw. Woo-hoo. Throw your
mask in the air like Texas and Mississippi. Wheee! You can see how all this may
end badly. On a bright note, springtime blooms in one week so the warmer
weather will help battle coronavirus easier.
The vaccine demand is robust now and should remain that way through April, however, late April and through May the vaccine hesitancy and anti-vaxxing debates may surface in a big way. The vaccine hesitant folks are simply looking for answers to questions and want to understand more about the inoculations. The medical community has plans to win-over these folks and should make huge strides in getting these folks vaccinated. It will be a Herculean effort, however.
Mobile vaccination vehicles, pop-up tent vaccination sites, hospitals and clinics will be useful in bringing shots to people's arms in the inner cities. Churches, food kitchens, thrift stores, food banks and meeting halls can provide facilities to help vaccinate folks in run-down communities across America.
The anti-vaccination people will probably never be convinced
to take the shot. The rubber will hit the road if vaccine passports are
implemented which will not permit people to fly or attend events unless they
provide proof of vaccination. That will be a sad direction for the US and cause
many people to question the government system. Nothing good happens after that.
Vaccine passports would likely create a portion of society that turns
reclusive. There are interesting weeks ahead.
The goal is to vaccinate the US to the point that herd immunity is achieved by Labor Day. As previous calculations have shown, it is doable but the 2.3 million doses per day rate must continue to increase. That rate needs to be north of 3 million doses per day even 4 million. The vaccine supply issue appears resolved. Demand remains strong and this will likely continue through April. The May-June period will be important since it will become apparent how many Americans are willing to become vaccinated, or not.
An interesting question that reporters and journalists have not yet asked but it is critical to achieving herd immunity is how many people (what percent) do not return for their second Pfizer or Moderna shot? Keystone explained the herd immunity calculation in prior articles, the math is straight forward, and factored in a 10% drop-off in people returning for the second shot based on prior 2-shot vaccination programs.
In other words, if 10 people are vaccinated with the first shot, typically only 9 will show up for the second shot. Inquiring minds want to know. Is the 10% number too high? Too low? Anecdotally, people appear to be religiously returning for the second shot so a guess would be that the drop-off rate is low, however, once the less gun-ho people start to become vaccinated, will they bother returning for the second shot, or, as the economy reopens, do people not bother with the second shot? Human behavior will provide the answers. Anecdotally, the news looks good because people universally returning for the second shot gets America to herd immunity faster.
The Whitehouse brags that 3 million Americans are vaccinated on Friday. This big number was touted a week ago in the same manner. It's bogus; well, let's explain. Keystone got to the bottom of the data discrepancy. Remember, never try to fool a numbers man. The large 3 million number is simply a one-day spike in the CDC bar chart data. All other vaccine trackers smooth the data out to eliminate the choppiness in the daily data and they are at 2.2 million doses per day.
The reason the 3 million vaccine doses per day rate number is misleading is because the next day it was down to 1.7 million doses per day then down to a paltry sub 800K doses per day the day after that. Hey Whitehouse, look at this data Keystone found. Do you want to tweet out the 800K doses per day number? Comically, it's only one-quarter of the 3 million touted. Politicians always want to talk happy talk so what can you do?
To the CDC's credit, they have a 7-day MA on their chart, linked here, and it is at, lo and behold, 2.15 million doses per day like everyone else. You can also see the individual bars spiking to the highs above 2.8 million. The CDC is clean on this one. It is really the Whitehouse that cherry-picked that happy top-tick daily number and chose to brag it to the public on Twitter.
After Labor Day, it will be interesting to see how the
medical community breaks the news to Americans, that were vaccinated, that they
need to come in again and roll up their sleeves for some more shots; either a
flu shot or covid shot or both. That may go over like a lead balloon.
1,605 Americans perish due to covid yesterday. For the last
couple weeks, the daily deaths are fluctuating between 800 and 2,000 trending
lower. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) does a great job
with the mortality data and charts.
The IHME is at 531K American deaths right now and predicts 554K
deaths by 4/1/21. The IHME predicts 656K deaths as a worst-case scenario on
7/1/21 now that many states are reopening and ignoring the coronavirus
guidelines. This would not set up a happy Independence Day. 675K Americans died
during the Spanish Flu of 1918. The worst-case scenario numbers with the China
Flu may put us in the same ballpark by Labor Day.
The US coronavirus hospitalizations drop to 40,212 the
lowest number since the third wave began in the United States in October. The
peak hospitalizations are 132,474 on 1/6/21 a 70% reduction in only 66 days (7
weeks). Wow. For waves 1 and 2, the two peaks in hospitalizations were at 60K
and the two dips were at 30K.
The United States is down to 40K hospitalizations now which
is great but the celebration would actually occur sub 30K since that represents
less hospitalizations than the prior two waves. Raise champagne glasses and
enjoy the victory when/if the hospitalizations drop below 30K.
Conversely, prepare yourself for a month or two of pain and
misery if/when the hospitalizations begin tracking higher again and move above
60K. The hospitalization data has a six-day lag, thus, the bar chart could
already be leveling off or heading higher, or, hopefully, fall off a cliff and
head to zero.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 30 million. There is a flip in the second and third positions.
Brazil has 11.37 million cases leapfrogging India at 11.35 million total cases.
Next is Russia (4.4 million), UK (4.3), France (4.0), Spain (3.2), Italy (3.2),
Turkey (2.9), Germany (2.6), Colombia (2.3), Argentina (2.2), Mexico (2.2), Poland
(1.9), Iran (1.7), South Africa (1.5), Ukraine (1.4), Peru (1.4), Indonesia (1.4),
Czechia (1.4), Netherlands (1.2), Canada (903K), Chile (885K), Romania (855K), Israel
(817K), Portugal (814K), Belgium (802K), Iraq (754K), Sweden (713K), Philippines
(617K), Pakistan (603K), Switzerland (571K) and Bangladesh (555K). Hungary and
Austria are at 500K cases.
France jumps higher by a couple hundred thousand cases over
the last 11 days. Ditto Italy. The chronology warned about the trouble brewing
in France, Italy, and central and western Europe, a couple weeks ago and the
mainstream media is finally on board. Turkey and Poland also jump by 200K cases
in 11 days.
Many gains above are incremental but countries such as
Brazil, India, Germany, Argentina, Mexico, Iran, Netherlands and Indonesia
report robust increases in coronavirus cases. Israel worsens leapfrogging Portugal.
Israel is supposed to be the positive poster child of vaccinations. Philippines
also worsens leapfrogging Pakistan. 35 nations are over 500,000 total coronavirus
cases 2 more than 11 days ago. That is a lot of countries.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, actually 11 days, and more data and information become
available, to push the story forward.
This is Article 36 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides
real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists,
market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials,
news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19
pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally. This thirty-sixth article
is published on Saturday, 3/13/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair. There is no time to think only to keep
catching your breath as the events fly by.
All 36 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The articles will be published in the future as a complete set called the
Coronavirus Chronology, that is, if the virus ever ends. The COVID-19 pandemic
information is recorded in detail, every day over the last year, capturing the raw
emotion in real-time. The last couple articles are linked here if you want to
come up to speed with the pandemic saga over the last month.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a few days. The
COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data
available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail.
The worst nations with coronavirus outbreaks are listed
below. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected peaks in active
cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active cases
curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The pandemic is not
under control until the active cases curve flattens and rolls over forming the
bell shape. The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the list the hardest
since they are reporting the largest spikes in daily new cases occurring in
real-time.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. South Korea and Japan finally
beat back their third waves but the news is not good. Japan’s daily new cases
are on the rise again which will create a disastrous backdrop for the Olympics.
If Japan was smart, they would cancel, however, if athletes are willing to show
up and give it a go, why not? Japan is on the cusp of beginning a new wave
higher.
Even South Korea shows a rise in daily new cases occurring
spelling trouble ahead so it may appear on the bad list below next time. The
China Flu is feeling like it is impossible to shake off. Like a bad dream,
covid keeps coming back. Hong Kong, that is now just another communist city
soiled by the CCP filth, reports a big spike higher in daily cases. Hong Kong
requires close watching since a new wave may be starting.
Perhaps the end of the pandemic occurs when the virus
decides to dissipate and move on or die on its own terms. Many past viruses
linger for about 18 months and then fade away. The COVID-19 saga is ongoing for
14 months although cases may have been occurring in the United States in
November 2019 which is 17 months ago.
The following nations are listed from bad to worse with
ongoing coronavirus outbreaks;
Egypt (Second Wave) (data is
suspect perhaps underreporting daily new cases)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases creeping higher)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
2/18/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 8/16/20 and 2/18/21)
3/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart is flattening)
2/19/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
3/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
3/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/2/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
3/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of fourth wave)
3/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/5/21 New Case Peak Date
3/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/8/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
4/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/9/21 New Case Peak Date
3/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/9/21 New Case Peak Date
3/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
4/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
4/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
4/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
4/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
4/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(based on 28 days)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases remain steady and robust)
4/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/11/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/11/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
3/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
3/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fourth wave)
3/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fourth wave)
3/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fourth wave)
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases remain steady and robust)
4/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
4/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/12/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fifth wave)
4/9/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
4/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fourth wave)
4/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
4/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Sweden sees a big spike in
deaths yesterday. Chile takes a substantive turn for the worse. Poland,
Ukraine, Hungary Austria, bad, bad, bad, bad. Hungary’s spike in daily new
cases is jaw-dropping over 9K yesterday as the chart above shows. Central and
eastern Europe are in deep trouble. Germany is added to the bad list above as
its third wave begins.
Italy reports 27K daily new cases as shown in the chart above so its troubles will continue over the next month. PM Draghi vows to triple the vaccination rate for Italy and opines about the mental health harm occurring to children. Draghi imposes more lockdown measures saying he has no choice. If a region experiences a high case load, it will go into full lockdown. Italy will be in lockdown over the Easter weekend.
It
is sad to see Europe fall back into covid Hell. Europeans are likely now beginning
to realize that they are in a new wave of the pandemic. The situation goes from bad to worse when the AstraZeneca vaccine program is halted due to concerns over blood clotting in a couple dozen patients. An investigation continues.
The UK daily new cases chart
above shows how the B117 variant was successfully fought off during December
and January. However, another train of sadness may be coming down the tracks.
The pattern of lower lows and lower highs for the UK daily new case data has
failed and the numbers instead move sideways. It is concerning since the curve
may begin moving higher again starting a new wave. The last two days report
daily cases at 6.6K and 6.8K which are above the 3-day MA at 6.4K. Good luck
England.
The outbreaks in Africa
continue in Guinea, Mali, Togo, Benin, Gabon and Cameroon. Chad has improved.
South Africa has succeeded in tamping down the virus. That nasty B1351 variant
must have migrated north to Botswana that is dealing with an outbreak with the
daily new cases spiking to over 2.3K the highest ever. Somalia is in horrible
shape with daily new cases running consistently elevated for the last month.
The Philippines requires watching as a new second wave is well underway.
The coastal countries are
smacked hard. The transmission of the virus has a lot to do with boat and ship
travel, sailors, cargo, there is something going on there that spreads the
virus. If anyone is looking for an interesting topic to explore, that no one
else has touched, the ship to shore transmission of coronavirus would be
interesting. The data is fresh in Africa so it would be interesting to find out
all ships that docked in Guinea, Togo, Benin, Cameron and Gabon over the last
two months. Chop, chop.
From those nations, the
virus has worked up into Mali and into Chad. Why does the virus spread quickly
from ship to shore? What is going on at the ports? That ship data can be easily
gathered and may unlock some secrets about COVID-19. It is interesting stuff.
Perhaps there are nasties riding as stowaways inside the ship’s manifests.
Everyone is dipping their hands in and out of the manifest checking and
certifying documents. Perhaps coronavirus’s favorite sleeping place is inside
the world’s ships manifests.
Brazil and India fall down
the covid rabbit hole as conditions worsen. Brazil is a Hellhole since oxygen
supplies are depleted. If you have serious breathing problems and you arrive at
a hospital for help, they have no oxygen and you will likely die. 4% of the
Brazilian population is vaccinated. President Bolsonaro is cut from the Trump
cloth of denial about coronavirus as his people suffer and die.
The United States was taken
off the bad world list above since its active cases curve is rolling-over to
the downside (but still has not formed the bell shape). The worst covid nations
above are clearly in the Middle East, central and eastern Europe, and Africa.
Focusing on the US, the troubled states are highlighted
below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max
strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states below have
failed to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully
flattened the curve only to suffer a new wave higher again.
The vaccination program is helping. Folks following masking
and social distancing guidelines are also helping. However, Texas and
Mississippi decide to throw caution to the wind and reopen their economies
ignoring the coronavirus guidelines. Over a dozen other states follow suit.
Americans are optimistic, with spring arriving, and are tossing masks into the
bushes choosing to comingle with one another at parties (that the medical
officials humorously call gatherings).
Medical professionals are pulling out the remaining two
strands of hair on their bald heads (even the women!) thinking that all the
hard work to date will go up in a puff of smoke if the daily case numbers begin
moving higher again.
Many medical workers are at the breaking point exhausted
after one year of never-ending long shifts. Some healthcare workers have
already broken down. It is very disheartening for the healthcare folks to do
all that good but see people partying mask-less, ignoring social distancing and
carrying on without a care in the world. They know that they will probably be
putting a breathing tube down that jackasses throat in a couple weeks and performing
the intubations is getting old.
Here are the states that continue experiencing covid issues
but as mentioned previously, many of these states are withholding daily case
data since the numbers do not add up. Something is amiss. It always is when politicians
are involved. Interestingly, over the last 11 days, however, 7 states were
removed from the list below since the data was corrected or resolved.
The states below remain in trouble because their active
cases curves continue higher and higher signaling an ongoing outbreak in their
region that they cannot yet control despite their daily new cases dropping for
a couple months. Michigan is added to this bad list due to a real spike in
daily cases. Ditto Rhode Island. These two states may be leading us down the
path to covid Hell.
Washington (Third Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever; recent cases remain elevated and flat)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever; recent cases starting to elevate)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (recent
cases starting to elevate)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (recent
cases moving higher)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 12/27/20 and 1/16/21)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/17/21 New Case Peak Date (recent
cases becoming elevated)
2/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
3/11/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fifth wave beginning)
4/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for this new fourth wave)
4/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Note that 7 states above have the notation about the suspect
data. They may actually be in okay shape but the conflicting data says
otherwise so they remain suspect overall. Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, New York,
Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota, New Hampshire, Nevada,
Idaho, and Vermont must be watched closely since their daily new cases may be
rising creating a new wave. Watch these states very closely.
The big surprise is Michigan’s spike in daily new cases.
That state is likely becoming very sick again. What’s going on up there? Folks
must be partying out on the lakes. Detroit Mayor Duggan stupidly refused a shipment of thousands of J&J vaccines. What a dolt. He wants the city to use the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. He called the mRNA vaccines "better" although later rescinded the comments. There would have been plenty of Detroit folks willing to take the J&J vaccine. If the daily new cases continue higher and Michigan has a problem, people are going to label Duggan as having blood on his hands.
Oh-no. New Jersey. Daily new cases are spiking and starting
to move sideways with an upward bias. Both the 3-day MA and 7-day MA are
pointing higher so New Jersey is going to have to bear down. The New Jersey
active cases chart continues lower, however, and looks good but with the daily
cases starting to rise and begin a new wave, the active cases chart would be
expected to curve higher, and that is trouble.
Jersey is a coastal state. There is likely something going
on with ships and ports in transmitting the virus. Dirty germ-filled manifests
are exchanged and signed on ships and docks by manly men that scoff at wearing
masks. The papers are stamped and sneezed on and then stuffed back into the
manifest folder for the next destination. How many ships over the last 2 months
arrive at New Jersey ports from central and western Europe, the UK or Africa?
The B117 or other new variants may have entered via ships
and ports in New Jersey and from the list of states to watch above, New York,
North Carolina and New Hampshire, and the states from the bad list above Rhode
Island, Maryland and Maine. These are the likely key costal states acting as
major conduits for the transmission of coronavirus. Very interesting.
Texas remains in good shape with the daily cases heading
lower and the active cases chart formed the bell shape and continues sharply lower.
So far, the Lone Star State’s shunning of masks and reopening of the economy appears
to be a good decision (but give it a couple weeks after people are coughing on
each other).
The states not listed or mentioned above are in better shape
with their active cases curves rolling over to form the bell shape and heading lower.
The school situation remains in turmoil. Parents are fed up
with American teachers unwilling to return to work at the schools. Parents
cannot work properly at their jobs while home-schooling. Kids are developing
mental and weight problems from the China Virus. Most teachers want to be back
with their kids in the classroom.
New Jersey and California parents have started filing
lawsuits now expanding to a dozen other states. The parents need their kids in
school. The teacher’s unions are powerful and Sleepy Joe Biden lays down in bed
with them each evening.
The US Education Secretary Miguel Cardona says, “There is no
substitute for in-person learning.” Cardona will not provide a date certain for
opening up schools for all 5 days of in classroom instruction. Open the schools.
Children need to be with each other for mental health, social and emotional
reasons and this is more important than coronavirus right now; the pandemic has
stretched on too long so different decisions have to be made.
Kids returning to school will help with parents returning to
work. Many states have prioritized teacher vaccinations and if that is what it
takes go for it. Do it fast. Chop, chop. Time is of the essence. The pandemic
never seems to receive the sense of urgency it deserves. Many Americans,
especially the wealthy elite class participating in the New Gilded Age, have
been accustomed to an easy life and it continues each day regardless of the
pandemic. The huddled masses, however, struggle each day as they live in their land of the have not’s.
The US daily new cases data is key this week. The trend, up
or down, will reveal itself. Today’s data will be available early tomorrow
morning.
In the meantime, pray that the states mentioned above do not
become worse. Focus on Michigan, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Indiana, Illinois,
Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota, New
Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, and Vermont. If the fourth wave begins in the United
States, these are the states that may lead the sick way forward.
Hang in there everyone. Look out for each other. There is no
other way. Come on people now, smile on your Asian brother, everybody gettogether, and love one another right now, right now, right now!.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/14/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Austria and other smaller European nations demand a meeting with the EU to address uneven vaccine distribution across the continent. European leaders say the distribution plan is on track and all member states are treated fairly. Austria, Bulgaria and other nations are slipping deeper into covid Hell right now with infections ramping higher. Three young people in Norway remain hospitalized due to blood clots after taking the AstraZeneca vaccine. Norway says it is too early to tell if the vaccine brought on the clots. AstraZeneca maintains its stance that the vaccine is safe. WHO is involved in the investigation and says there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the blood clot issues in about 30 European cases. Ireland is suggesting that the AstraZeneca vaccine program be placed on hold. AstraZeneca, on top of all the bad publicity, announces further production and supply issues. The EU and UK remain at loggerheads. Vaccine nationalism is occurring as countries seek out independent solutions to the ongoing global pandemic, even if it means stabbing another nation in the back. China, that created the ongoing global coronavirus bioterrorism, tells the world that if foreigners take their vaccine they can freely travel into and out of the communist nation. Isn't that rich? WHO approves the J&J vaccine for emergency global use. Germany warns that a third wave of coronavirus has begun. Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Poland, Austria, Ukraine, Hungary, Czechia and other nations in that region are in covid Hell for the next 2 to 4 weeks.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/14/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Michigan is allowing vaccinations for a broader swath of the population with underlying conditions and disabilities starting next week. All residents will be eligible after 4/5/21. Congratulations to Michigan for being on top of things and realizing the pandemic is starting to increase (if this is is the case; it may not be). However, it is too slow!! Get on it now Michigan! Detroit! Motor City! The virus is spreading in your state. Michigan should open up vaccinations to everyone and stick those arms 24/7 until all the vaccine is gone. Get to it. Chop, chop. Michigan is in a race pitting the vaccinations against the spreading virus but you cannot win if you do not know you are in a race. Michigan be alert. Stay away from each other for the next couple weeks, otherwise, the Wolverine State is going to end up as covid road-kill. Investment bank Goldman Sachs tells employees the party's over. Goldman, called the Vampire Squid by naysayers, tells employees to think about getting vaccinations and returning physically to the office. The US is enlisting the help of dentists, paramedics, EMT's, physician assistants, respiratory therapists, optometrists, podiatrists and even veterinarians to help administer the vaccinations; they will serve as a force of vaccinators. Biden has bungled a few things in office already but the handling of the pandemic is obviously in far more competent hands. King Donnie Trump's plan was to hope that the virus would go away while telling everyone that we are rounding the corner. All the plans are in place to vaccinate America but will the people keep showing up with rolled up sleeves in May and June? Polls indicate that 50% of white republicans do not plan to take the vaccine. The man that most of this demographic worships, former President Trump, and his wife Melania, took the vaccine shots like thieves in the dead of night in January, keeping it hush-hush, not allowing anyone to inform the press. It shows you how much the Trumpster actually cares about those folks. Donnie could have done the photo-op vaccine shot and encouraged his followers to take the vaccine but he chooses not to. Trump always places politics ahead of the people. The $1,400 covid relief checks begin going out to Americans this weekend. Bitcoin hits a new record high above $60K.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/14/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Let's take a look at the Saturday data; you are seeing it in real-time as the writer does. The US deaths are at 546,605 souls. That is a sad statistic. Dirtbag Joseph Stalin said, 'one death is a tragedy but a million deaths are a statistic'. The US daily new cases for Saturday, 3/13/21, is 48,808 cases. This is encouraging although it is the weekend data which tends to be lower as was expected. It is great that the number was not large. At 49K daily new cases, this is below the 7-day MA at 55K. Excellent. The 49K also breaks the 5-day run of higher daily infections. Excellent. The 7-day MA line continues sloping lower. Excellent. The 3-day MA, now at 60K, curls over to the downside, off its peak, without taking out the prior high to the upside. Excellent. The pattern of lower lows and lower highs is maintained for the 3-day MA. Excellent. The 49K number was desperately needed to stall a troubling upward trend emerging the last few days but we are not out of the woods. Today's Sunday data should be on the low-side and then the rubber will meet the road during the week. With cases inching higher in some of the states listed above, the daily cases can easily turn skyward again. All you can do is keep walking on covid eggshells for a few days when the US daily new cases data should resolve itself, good or bad. The US active cases curve remains in suspended animation begrudgingly moving incrementally lower but refusing to create the bell shape to signal that the virus is defeated. America remains in the covid quagmire until the active cases chart drops to form the bell shape. 1,037 Americans die yesterday. Dr Scott Gottlieb says Americans will be gathering at parties and events long before Independence Day. They will not be waiting for permission from the CDC or anyone else. Gottlieb gets it. The pandemic is long in the tooth so folks are letting their guard down and choosing to resume living life consequences be damned. This behavior may end badly.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/14/21, at 11:00 AM EST: As mentioned above in the main body of the article, Hong Kong is a concern. An outbreak occurs at a gym and hundreds of people are in quarantine to stop the spread. Sydney, Australia, is concerned about a new outbreak after a hotel security guard tests positive for coronavirus. The Netherlands and Ireland suspend the AstraZeneca vaccinations due to the blood clot worries. Japan reports 3 days of elevated daily new cases the highest in 3 weeks. Good luck with the Olympics. The torch run is set to begin on 3/25/21 at Fukushima. Japan has a big decision to make within 10 days.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 3/14/21: As Research studies are indicating that there is no difference in infection rates for kids attending school that are maintaining a three-foot (1 m) distance rather than six-feet (2 m). Schools can reopen faster if the social distancing guideline for children in schools is relaxed. Of course, parent and teacher reactions run the full gambit pro and against.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/15/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Doc Fauci is cautioning the US to not let its guard down. He cites Europe that is now hit with a new wave of coronavirus. Fauci says the US is where Italy was three weeks ago. US daily new cases drop to 37K which is excellent news, however, the weekend data is expected to be lighter. The US picture looks better than a couple days ago but the daily case data over the coming days will tell the tale. 629 Americans die yesterday which is sad but it is the least deaths since 11/8/21 four months ago. Excellent news. Michigan's daily cases remain elevated. Ditto Rhode Island, New Jersey, New York and other states. The data this week is important. The vaccinations have to be helping. Despite states reopening, most people are still adhering to masking and social distancing guidelines. The US may end up discovering that more people were/are sick with covid than anyone realized (if the data begins to trail off substantially). If the data worsens this week, the US will be headed for an unpleasant place. The race between vaccinations and the variants continues.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 3/15/21: The AstraZeneca blood clot issue is in frenzy. Politicians are involved so the issue quickly devolves into a mess. AstraZeneca's review of the data indicates that the number of blood clot patients, about 30 people, occurring out of the millions of shots administered is in line with what occurs in regular society, in fact, the number of patients with blood clots are actually less than what you would expect would normally happen. On the other side, more countries such as Germany, France and Italy, the biggies, and Spain, stop the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. AstraZeneca is not approved for use in the United States. EU regulators and medical authorities across Europe are providing input into the investigation. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) plans on providing guidance on using the AstraZeneca vaccine on Thursday. This decision is huge.
Note Added Monday Evening, 3/15/21: The virus is spreading rapidly at Duke University in North Carolina. The college goes into lockdown for a week. Over 180 students test positive for covid and over 200 are in quarantine. Oh vey. Is this the new college experience? Boxer Marvelous Marvin Hagler dies at only 66 years old. The family does not provide a cause or any details of the death only saying it was "unexpected." Initial news reports, however, said Hagler received his second vaccination shot and was not feeling well afterwards. A few days later he died. The media attention is overwhelming so Kay Hagler, the widow, says the vaccine did not cause his death it was natural causes.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/16/21, at 2:00 AM EST: US reports 45K daily new cases for Monday which is a number lower than would be expected. Excellent. The 7-day MA keeps sloping down and the trend in daily cases is lower as evidenced by the 3-day MA. The last three days of daily new cases are 52K, 43K and 45K. It is not good that the Monday's cases are higher than Sunday's but as the old saying in charting goes, one day does not make a trend. The US actives cases curve remains in suspended animation unable to yet form the bell shape to signal the all-clear. The next four days of data are important into the Friday numbers which are typically larger. If the daily new cases remain sub 45K and trend lower, that is excellent news and verifies that the reopening of the economy may work out. If, however, cases climb for the next four days, the party will quickly turn ugly. The variants and the potential spring break superspreader are the two key worries. We may be in the eye of the covid storm right now.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/16/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Latvia and Sweden jump on board the AstraZeneca ban. Health officials are concerned since Europe is getting hit with a new pandemic wave and they are halting vaccinations. This combination is trouble. AstraZeneca is suffering reputational damage and even if the EMA green lights the vaccine again, how will the public respond? The drama should resolve quickly especially if the company's analysis is correct that less people have blood clots after vaccination than occurs in the general population.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/16/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Arica's CDC) Director Dr John Nkengasong is interviewed on Bloomberg media and says about 4 million Africans have tested positive for coronavirus but this number does not scratch the surface. The underreporting of cases is rampant across the African nations. On a positive note, many Africans have already recovered from the virus and the young people are typically not becoming seriously ill. Africa wants to receive vaccination doses quickly but so does the rest of the world. Africa plans on providing guidance on the AstraZeneca vaccine over the next day but if you read between the lines, it sounds like the continent will say, 'hey Europe, if you do not want those vaccines give them to us, we will use them'. Nkengasong says if 50% of the African population can be vaccinated with in the next two years, the virus can be eradicated. However, he said if the vaccinations are slow and lackluster, the pandemic may stretch on for 5 years. A good goal for the world would be to have everyone vaccinated, or at least herd immunity achieved, by the end of 2022.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/16/21, at 7:00 AM EST: As mentioned in the article above, there has not been any information on how many people return for the second dose but the CDC delivers. The CDC juggles the word language to make it sound rosy. It takes a bit of thinking to wrap your head around it. The release makes it sound like 96% of the people that receive the first shot return for the second. That is impressive and good news but not the case. The CDC says 88% of the people received two shots while 3.4% missed the second dose. The assumption is that 8.6% did not respond to the question. 88% is not good. As per the above comments, Keystone factored in a 10% rate for people not returning for the second shot but the 12% not returning is a bit worse than would be expected. The 9% that did not respond likely lean towards individuals that did not return for the second shot since these people are more prone to discard such studies since they pooh-poohed the second shot. However, if a couple percent of that 9% did return, the data for people returning for the second shot is about in line with historical averages; 10%. If 10 people receive the first shot, only about 9 show up for the second shot. The 96% number refers to people that had received the two shots. Of the patients receiving both shots, 96% received the second shot within the 3-week Pfizer/BioNTech and 4-week Moderna time periods (although a 42-day period is now acceptable for both). The information is misleading since you see the 96% number and exclaim, 'wow, 96% of the people return for the second shot better than any of our hopes and dreams', but this is an incorrect interpretation of the data, only 88% show up for the second shot. The average person is clueless as to this information so it is easy to see how minds are manipulated by press releases, whether good-intentioned or ill-intentioned. The plain facts are always best but not accepted in today's bread and circus society.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/16/21, at 8:00 AM EST: Moderna announces plans for a vaccine study on children ages 6 months to 11 years old. MRNA stock jumps +4%. AZN, AstraZeneca stock, gains +3% so the traders are not worried about the vaccine and they are typically correct. The blood clot issue may be wildly overblown. The experts are looking at data over the next two days. Stock traders know more about current events occurring in real-time around the world than anyone else because that is how they make money. The American Red Cross tells CNN media that 20% of the unvaccinated people that donated blood had COVID-19 antibodies. Isn't that something? 1 in 5 Americans have antibodies so they were obviously already exposed to the virus. If there is 330 million people in the US, extrapolating the 20% (which simply means multiply 330 by 0.2), is 66 million people. Very interesting. There may be 60 or 70 million people in the US with covid antibodies which will get the country to herd immunity far faster. It is fantastic news. Keystone's herd immunity calculations accounted for about 25 million people as having antibodies that never received medical attention. About 240 million people need vaccinated to reach herd immunity but if a 40 million additional credit is given since more people have antibodies than realized, only 200 million would need vaccinated. About 40 million are fully vaccinated currently and this will jump by another 20 million over the next 3 weeks, so this 60 million subtracted from the 200 million goal leaves 140 million more Americans needing shots to reach herd immunity. The numbers look far more doable these days than a month ago. Remember, the new flu and covid season begins after Labor Day, 9/6/21, so herd immunity needs to be reached by then or most of the hard and great work by everyone will be futile. Using the 2.2 million per day vaccination rate, and much of this is the 2-shot vaccines (but now the single-shot J&J doses have to be mixed into the picture), and 140 million, is 64 days, and shaving off a bit more since J&J is a single-dose, let's call it 2 months. It is amazing how fast the tables have turned over last few weeks. The United States may achieve herd immunity within 3 months (2 months plus the 3 weeks), say by the end of June, like some of the optimistic folks proclaim, as long as the antibody counts of 20%+ are true for America, and the variants do not wreak havoc, and if the young folks frolicking on spring break do not cause a superspreader event, and if folks behave themselves on Easter (4/12/21) weekend. There is reason to be optimistic although if ands and buts were candy and nuts, everyday would be Christmas. The walk across the covid minefield continues.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/16/21, at 9:00 AM EST: CDC Director Walensky continues appearing on television and pleading with America to "not let your guard down." She is concerned about the mask-less partiers on spring break and the busy airports despite the CDC's guidelines that only permit essential travel. Humorously, if you ask any young man at the ticket counter why he is traveling he will surely say that seeing his girlfriend or wife is extremely essential! Walensky says all this (relaxing of guidelines and people freely moving around) is occurring "in the context of still 50,000 cases per day." She says the data are moving in the "right direction." Walensky says, "Cases climbed last spring. They climbed again in the summer. They will climb now if we stop taking precautions." The doc is exactly correct as illustrated with the US active cases chart above. We blew it last Memorial Day, then at the end of the summer after Labor Day, and now, well, the jury is out.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 3/16/21: European nations such as France and Italy are warming up to the idea of restarting the AstraZeneca vaccines. The benefits outweigh the risks so the vaccination program should restart tomorrow when the EMA decision occurs. It is shameful that Europe, going several days with vaccinations on halt, and a new outbreak of cases ramping higher, does not inform the public to take vitamin D-3, C and zinc each day. With the cases escalating, every little bit helps and a stronger immune system may prevent a few coronavirus cases. Fortunately, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccinations continue in Europe, mainly it is Pfizer, and the J&J vaccine will be available in April. Italy's COVID-19 deaths cross the grim 103K milestone. Ohio, USA, plans on expanding vaccine eligibility to all adults. Ditto Montana. Apple places vaccination sites on features such as Apple Maps and Siri. The US vaccination program is making great strides each day. It is more of an all hands on deck approach than former President Trump that kept saying we are going around the corner for a half year that ended with the covid Mack truck hitting him head-on putting him in the hospital before the election.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 3/16/21: Former President Trump is finally shamed into making a statement encouraging people, especially a lot of his followers, to take the vaccine. Polls are indicating that 40% to 50% of white male republicans do not plan to take the vaccine. This obstacle needs overcome if the country wants to reach herd immunity. In true King Donnie fashion, we would expect nothing less, he talks out of both sides of his mouth telling Americans to get the vaccine but at the same time saying people have a right to not take the shot. It is reminiscent of his mask speech where he encouraged Americans to wear masks but said he does not believe in them and he will not wear one. The difference is that he and his wife Melania got vaccinated themselves back in January and kept it quiet. A lot of Donnie's voters are anti-vaxxer's so he is walking that fine line of not wanting to offend them but at the same time encouraging the vaccinations. What twisted webs the politicians weave. Trump bloviates, "We have our freedoms and we have to live by that and I agree with that also. But it is a great vaccine. It is a safe vaccine and it is something that works." Thanks for nothing, Donnie. The $1,400 stimulus checks to help Americans struggle through the pandemic will be arriving in bank accounts in force starting tomorrow. The elite privileged class in America, and the upper middle class sycophants that service the ultra wealthy, have not missed a paycheck over the last year. It is life as normal. For the huddled masses, the other 300 million in the US, life remains difficult.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 3/17/21, at 2:00 AM EST: St Patrick's Day. Americans throw caution to the wind and begin traveling in large numbers again with airport foot traffic at over one million people per day for a couple weeks. People throw caution to the wind, shedding their pandemic fatigue and begin frolicking in the springtime weather. COVID-19 cases will likely rise over the next couple weeks. Fauci says that children could be vaccinated beginning early next year.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 3/17/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Oh-no. Montana sees a huge spike of 411 cases yesterday. Oh-no. Michigan reports 2,578 cases which are elevated. Cases are leveling off at elevated numbers in states such as New York, New Jersey, Texas and a dozen others which is not good since the cases need to drop. This development dampens the hope and optimism over the last few days. The US active cases curve will not form the bell shape and it is hinting now that it may want to stretch-out sideways. This is not good. The US reports 53,231 daily new cases yesterday a higher number than the last couple days which is not good. The 7-day MA is at 55,395 cases which is great, as long as the daily cases remain below this critical moving average trend line. Check today's data tomorrow to see if it is above 55.4K, which signals doom and gloom ahead, or, if the cases drop back down below 53.2K headed lower. 1,248 Americans die from covid yesterday which is an elevated number compared to the last few days. The next three days of daily new case data, today, tomorrow and especially Friday when the data tends to be elevated, are going to tell a lot about the covid path ahead for the US.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 3/17/21, at 11:00 AM EST: A 21-year old nutcase with a sex addiction goes berserk in Atlanta shooting and murdering eight people at three different spa's (massage parlors?) he frequented. The police arrested the murderer as he drove to Florida. Initial reports say he planned to attack a porn industry location. The liberal-leaning networks and media have been pumping the Asian race rhetoric and hatred over the last few weeks and sensationalize the event with wall to wall coverage since six of the dead are Asian women. Most of the murdered souls are Asian women because most massage parlor workers are Asian women. Duh. Who has not heard of a 'happy ending'? A Pennsylvania Asian mafia ring was busted in Pennsylvania last year. The illegal activity was centered around a massage parlor now shut down. One Asian man and three Asian women were arrested and convicted now serving time. This is standard fare across America. If the nutcase would have walked into a furniture store he would have killed Jews, or if he came across a crew laying a concrete driveway, he would have killed Italians. Do not take this type of sick race bait folks. A few years ago, Biden himself said if you walk into a convenience store chances are an Indian man will be behind the counter. If the nutcase shooter would have walked into a convenience store, he would have killed several Indians. The people that preach about racism and putting people in boxes are the people perpetuating racism putting people in boxes. The liberals want gun control and repeal of the Second Amendment (right to bear Arms) and one way for the elitists to move towards that goal is to peddle this sick race fear rhetoric each day. President Biden runs to a microphone and proclaims that "the Asian-American community is feeling enormous pain tonight. The recent attacks against the community are un-American. They must stop." Biden immediately makes it about race although he knows the police are saying the opposite. Race-baiting by the big man himself who favors gun control; one path there is fear. We are all disheartened and saddened Americans, not just the Asian-Americans. Putting people in ethnic and racial boxes only perpetuates ethnic and racial boxes. The networks also sensationalize events to attract eyeballs which raises the ad revenue charged to sponsors and advertisers. It is always about money. The Asian incidents, which are mainly derogatory verbal comments, are only occurring in selected cities such as Atlanta, New York and San Francisco. Perhaps these cities should treat their local race problems locally and not label the rest of the nation, which gets along great with one another, as racist. These cities should be concerned that they are becoming labeled as racist cities that pump hate speech daily and specialize in fear-mongering and race-baiting. Surely, no city would want that reputation. Atlanta is the global headquarters of CNN. The liberal media will keep pumping the story until they find a connection between the shooter and Asia that can feed their narrative. The democrat-leaning media keeps trying to link the sayings China Flu, Wuhan Virus and Kung Flu to Asian violence and of course blame former President Trump at the same time. Interestingly, more Asian-Americans voted for Trump in the last election than 2016. It is as if the media desires more Asian hate incidents to occur (to help the antigun agenda) like the local volunteer fireman that starts the fires in town. A man and woman murdered in the attack are non-Asian but the media does not talk about them. It was a heinous crime by a deranged mentally-ill young man and he will not be doing that again. CNN ratings have been dropping over the last few weeks; perhaps telling the truth, especially since it is supposed to be a news organization, will help. Americans are fed-up with the massaged half-phony news occurring from all outlets. Nothing can be trusted anymore.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 3/17/21: WHO says the benefits in using the AstraZeneca vaccine outweigh the risks. European Commission President von der Leyen keeps slamming AstraZeneca over production delays and threatens to halt vaccine exports. The ill will and vaccine nationalism battle between Europe (Brussels) and the UK (London) continues. France daily new cases jump to 38.5K a terrible number at a 4-month high. Italy deaths are starting to test 500 per day again a high number. Germany's daily new cases spike over 16K the highest since mid-January. Oh-no. Spain reports elevated cases and its active cases curve is beginning to curl higher again. Poland's daily new cases are spiking wildly higher over 25K. Europe is a covid mess. The pandemic is wildly out of control in Czechia. Hungary's pandemic is at the worst level it has ever been. Good luck to everyone across the pond since you will be in coronavirus Hell for the next month or more. The chronology told Europe that this trouble was coming a month ago, explaining the outbreak with the data and charts, but the leaders play tiddlywinks each day. China's largest trading partner is Europe. The global economic ramifications of the new COVID-19 outbreak in Europe are serious. Europe awaits the EMA decision on using AstraZeneca tomorrow. A Denmark study reinforces other recent research stating that coronavirus reinfections do occur but are rare in younger people. Six months after the first infection with the virus, folks over 65 years old are far more susceptible to covid reinfections than younger people. This would be an obvious conclusion expected. Virus outbreaks in Africa continue. Tanzania President Magufuli dies of complications from covid after he was a coronavirus denier.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/18/21, at 2:00 AM EST: Europe awaits the EMA decision on using AstraZeneca today. Global deaths from the China Flu are about to cross 2.7 million. It is mind-blowing the damage to human lives that the virus from Wuhan, China, has created. Conditions in Brazil and India worsen. Brazil reports 90.8K daily new cases the highest ever. Dear Lord. Brazil's death rate is 2,798 and 2,736 souls over the last two days, respectively. Brazil's hospital system is in collapse. President Bolsonaro plays down the virus, like former President Trump, to the detriment, and death, of the people. It is complete incompetence. In America, Trump has 400K dead bodies in his closet and Biden is already at 150K dead souls on his watch. The IRS extends the tax filing deadline from 4/15/21 to 5/17/21 due to the pandemic.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/18/21, at 3:00 AM EST: US COVID-19 DEATHS EXCEED 550K ANOTHER GRIM MILESTONE. The US reports 63K daily new cases for yesterday, St Patty's Day. Perhaps the green beer made people sick. The 7-day MA is at 55.6K so the daily new cases break above the trend line which is terrible. The walk on covid eggshells continues. The US typically follows Europe and we do not want to follow that current outbreak disaster. Michigan reports 3.8K daily new cases a big spike higher. Come on Detroit, take care of yourselves. Cases remain elevated in New York. New Jersey reports 4.3K daily new cases another one-month spike high. This is not looking good. CDC Director Walensky says there are "variants of concern" in California. Medical folks say natural antibodies do not fight off the California variants as well. Americans are told, however, that the antibodies generated by the vaccinations will perform better, which sounds made-up and only designed to encourage people to be vaccinated. The scientists still do not fully understand COVID-19 over one year into the pandemic they obviously do not fully understand the antibody mechanisms. Currently, scientists believe that natural antibodies may protect a person for about 6 months but the vaccinations may be effective for a year or two, but they do not know. Again, the statement does, however, encourage people to become vaccinated. Also telling folks that the shots may be good for a couple years allays concern that they are getting a couple shots now and in September are gong to be told they need two more shots. Pandemic control is very much a psychological and behavioral game. An Israeli study shows that antibodies present in pregnant women are transferred to infants.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/18/21, at 3:30 AM EST: Israel closed its borders on 1/25/21 to control the pandemic and requires any citizen returning from foreign travel to remain in quarantine for 2 weeks. The authorities do not want you to leave quarantine; it is like prison. Israel now plans to require any foreign visitor to wear a bracelet that will notify authorities if you break quarantine. Big Brother is alive. Humans proudly display their Mark of the Beast. Israel, that has the top spy agency in the entire world, tells everyone that the bracelet does not listen to conversations and does not track you, it only notifies authorities if you leave the programmed quarantine area. Yeah, sure. It's laughable. Society is sick all around the world. In America, the crony capitalism system is crumbling as the pandemic rages forward.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/18/21, at 4:00 AM EST: CNN and MSNBC continue running wall to wall news coverage sensationalizing the shooting in Atlanta as an Asian hate crime even though authorities say it was a sex crime. Facts do not matter in 2021, feelings matter. The shooting is an opportunity for the left-leaning democrat tribe to promote the anti-gun agenda and at the same time produce more ad revenue as eyeballs are attracted to the theatrics and drama. The New York Times (liberal-leaning newspaper) jumps into the race-bating game playing up the Atlanta shooting as an Asian hate crime which is not true. The democrat party and their state-run media outlets will be preaching Asian racism and hate for the next few weeks so be prepared. It is sickening. The problem race cities such as Atlanta, New York and San Francisco should get their own houses in order and not drag the rest of the country into their race-baiting games. Dr Besser says a race is occurring between vaccinating people and the pandemic fatigue. Increased social interaction spreads the virus. Dr Wen is concerned about a potential fourth virus wave occurring in the United States and warns, "I think we are going to see a surge in the number of infections." The US daily new case data is key over the next couple days. It does appear the US is starting to slide down the slippery covid slope.
Note Added Thursday at Lunchtime, 3/18/21, 12:00 PM EST, Noon: The EMA re-approves the AstraZeneca vaccine as expected and countries will begin administering vaccines. Europe needs to accelerate the vaccination program in every way possible since the new outbreak wave is spinning out of control in central and eastern Europe. French President Macron announces a month-long lockdown in Paris having to eat crow after bragging that France would not go into lockdown again. France's data and charts indicate that there is likely an underreporting of the daily new cases occurring. The Whitehouse plays-up the president meeting the 100 million vaccination goal within the first 100 days now at 115 million doses administered. 41 million Americans are fully vaccinated; 12.3%. The vaccinations have fallen off the last few days due to supply issues (redistribution of vaccine is needed from areas that have a surplus to areas that are ready to vaccinate but do not have enough supply; runners can take care of this) and bad storms and tornados across the south. The US vaccination rate is at 2.2 million doses per day. There is talk of 200 million shots in arms within the first 100 days of the Biden term. Maryland plans to open the vaccination program to all adults.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 3/18/21: Doc Fauci and Senator Rand Paul are at loggerheads during a congressional hearing. Paul says masks are of little good and only amount to "theater" and he questions why masks are needed after vaccination. Fauci takes offense proclaiming that "masks are not theater" and are helpful in defending against the new variants. The mask debate continues. The liberal-leaning media continues to peddle the Asia hate rhetoric all day long. News outlets such as CNN, MSNBC, New York Times and Bloomberg are foaming at the mouth to discover even the smallest tidbit of information in Atlanta that will link that 21-year old nutcase shooter to Asian people. The cops are being criticized for saying it was a sex crime. A confused society becomes angry nowadays when the truth is told and it does not agree with their collective narrative (in the future 2+2 will equal 5, say it all together, George Orwell's 1984 is alive). America continues opening restaurants, bars and gyms (the spreads that begin in countries that are well-versed on handling pandemics, such as Hong Kong or South Korea, tend to start from gym or communal type areas, perhaps a nightclub, where human bodies are very near to one another, sweating, and folks are shouting and singing doing a lot of heavy inhaling and exhaling). People are starting to live life normally but are still wearing masks (plenty of noses are showing). Airlines and airports are busy. Spring break continues. Some Americans are hungover today after a drunken day of partying and St Patty's Day revelry. Do you get the feeling that all of this is not going to end well?
Note Added Thursday Evening, 3/18/21: The southern border with Mexico is at crisis level. Biden campaigned on relaxing border controls and opposing the wall that Trump favored. Trump erased Obama's executive orders with his own executive orders that are now erased by Biden's executive orders. Sickening, isn't it? The dysfunctional government is in corrupt hands during the last five decades. Biden made a major mistake in cancelling the construction projects at the border. He could have let those contracts finish; they did not have long to run. Biden instead chose to flush American taxpayer money down the toilet, screw people out of their jobs and create a border crisis. That is stupid like the first day on the job, 1/20/21, when Sleepy Joe destroyed over 10,000 American middle-class families by stopping the Keystone pipeline project. Community businesses that were hanging on by a thread, because of the pipeline support, also go belly-up. Biden is the modern-day Herbert Hoover. Sadly, 26% of the immigrants coming across the southern border now are testing positive for coronavirus; this is 1 in 4 people. The border is overrun with children (5K last month and nearly 10K this month; a doubling) which creates a nightmare concerning how to house and feed the young people, and of course keep them safe since many are escaping violence. Biden created the humanitarian disaster at the border. States such as California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas may see a ramping-up of covid cases if the infections spread from the border. The US is providing Mexico with some Pfizer vaccine to help battle the pandemic. The data over the next 1 to 3 weeks will indicate what is happening at the Biden border crisis.
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/19/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Over 2.7 million global citizens have died from coronavirus. Over 122 million people have been infected with the China Flu in all nations on earth and 99 million have recovered. In the US, 30.3 million are infected with covid and 552,470 are dead from the Wuhan Virus. 22.5 million Americans have recovered. 25% of the COVID-19 infections in the world, 1 in 4, are in the United States. 20% of the coronavirus deaths in the world, 1 in 5, are in the US. The critical US daily new cases are 62,629 cases another elevated number but a touch below the prior day's 63,495, however, remaining above the important 7-day MA trend line at 55,787 cases. The 3-day MA shows the continued pattern of lower lows and lower highs which is great but the active cases chart continues to refuse to drop sharply lower to form the bell shape and signal the end of the pandemic. Today's data is key since the Friday numbers are usually the highest of the week. Oh-no. US deaths spike to 1,705 souls the highest in 10 days. Daily cases remain elevated in states such as Michigan, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New York and several others and this is not improving, in fact, it is starting to develop a consistency. New Jersey cases spike to 4,473 cases as restrictions on gyms and restaurants are lifted. Joisey! What are you doing! You're heading for disaster. Governor Murphy decrees, "We believe we can confidently take these steps today as our COVID-19 metrics continue to trend in the right direction." Murphy does not believe it, as any rookie CIA agent will tell you, since he uses the word "we." If he knew reopening the economy would be wine and roses with blue skies and rainbows ahead, he would say "I" like any other politician anxious to claim credit. Instead, he hedges his bets with we. When the Lone Ranger told Tonto to perform a dangerous task in the old television show, the look on the noble Native American's face was always 'what's this we sh*t white man?'. New Jersey is headed for major trouble. California cases are ramping higher. The pandemic is surreal. People are acting like the coast is clear but they do not realize they are walking straight into a coronavirus buzzsaw.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 3/19/21, at 3:00 PM EST: President Biden touts reaching the 100 million vaccination goal within the first 100 days; he did it in 57 days. This was a confusing announcement from the Whitehouse. Biden's inauguration was 1/20/21 so that is when the clock started for Sleepy Joe. Trump promised 20 million vaccinations by the end of 2020 but that goal did not happen. 20 million vaccinations did occur before he left office on 1/20/21 (after 80 days of whining like a sore loser cry baby which is the Trump legacy). Thus, the Whitehouse takes away this 20 million so 120 million total shots would be needed for Biden to meet his 100 million shot goal. Is that clear as mud? As 1/20/21 began, there were 20.1 million doses that can be credited to King Donnie (so Sleepy Joe Biden needs 120.1 million doses to reach the 100 million goal). As of yesterday, the total doses are at 118.3 million so the difference is 1.8 million which should be doable today. It is close enough for government work so Biden achieves the easy goal. The new goal is 200 million doses by the first 100 days so this equates to achieving 220.1 million doses by 4/1/21 to attain the 200 million goal. US hospitalizations are leveling off instead of going down which is not good. Biden stumbles three times walking up the steps to Air Force One on the tarmac. He appears okay although is limping a little as he enters the airplane. The stumble is reminiscent of President Ford falling down the steps a display that he never lived down, The legs get tired when its time to lay down for the evening. It is 3 PM EST in the afternoon.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 3/19/21, at 4:00 PM EST: The CDC relaxes the social distancing rule in schools from 6 feet (2 m) to 3 feet (1 m). This new guideline will allow all schools in the US, no matter how small a square foot area, to bring back students for in-class instruction. Masking and other guidelines remain in effect. The program to vaccinate teachers is a major focus over the coming 2 weeks and bingo, great news, the shots are made available, and the teachers immediately step up to the plate and the program is already zooming ahead and may reach all the instructors within a few days. The teachers unions push back on the new 3 foot (1 m) guideline worried about safety but the overwhelming consensus of parents, medical officials, politicians, even teachers, and the public, everyone, is for returning the kids to school. Biden and Vice President Harris travel to Atlanta to meet with the CDC but also take time to comment on the massage parlor shootings peddling the race-baiting Asian rhetoric and fear-mongering even though the authorities, including the FBI, say the crime is not racially-motivated. The nutcase shooter likely had a vendetta against women. Biden and the liberal media keep stoking the Asian fear and violence to promote an agenda of increased public control. Fear-mongering is used as a standard weapon by both corrupt political parties in the crony capitalism system. The news and media routinely lie to you and all the networks are the same, they only serve different money masters. It is important to highlight Vice President Harris's dishonesty in her speech. She is feeding the Asian hate rhetoric machine, and she is of Asian heritage, saying, "...the shootings took place as violent hate crimes and discrimination against Asian Americans (lie) has risen dramatically over the last...year... and more (she had to pause to make up a time frame)." Isn't it sickening? She feeds the Asian hate rhetoric saying the Atlanta shooting was purposeful violence against Asians; that is a lie but she cleverly runs the sentence along to add the part about making it a general statement not specific to Atlanta. This is her way out if someone later calls her out on her racially-motivated statement as explained here. This massaged rhetoric only hurts the Asian-Americans trying to highlight discrimination and verbal abuse. Since Harris accuses all Americans of being racist (which is ignorant and untrue; America is not a racist nation), people take offense, as they should, and it develops a skepticism about the plight of Asians, and only serves to breed more hate in the country. Any violence against minorities is a large-city problem so the racist cities of Atlanta, New York and San Francisco need to get their racist houses in order and not drag the rest of the country into their racist holes. The violence against Asians data touted by politicians and their operatives is assembled by the very organization that seeks donations and money to combat Asian violence. Biden and Harris would be better served by handling the border crisis they created instead of manufacturing hate and distrust among the population. Protests are popping up in cities overnight concerning Asian hate so they succeeded in whipping people into a frenzy like Trump did before the Capitol Hill riot that ended with five people dead. You are watching the final throes of crony capitalism. The next decade or two will be interesting.
Note Added Friday Evening, 3/19/21: Fauci is worried about the new variant B117 that now accounts for 20% to 30% of the cases in the United States. More people die from the B117 variant than the original D614G virus. Also, the New York B1526 variant is spreading in New York and New Jersey and now appearing in Texas. Over 12% of the B117 new daily cases in the US yesterday are in New York. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives the AstraZeneca vaccine hoping to encourage others. An outbreak of coronavirus occurs at Mar-a-Lago (where former President Trump lives in Florida) forcing a partial shutdown of the facilities. The Whitehouse was an infected covid nest when Donnie was in power and now his resort and residence is an infected covid nest. The Idaho legislature suspends operations for two weeks due to an outbreak impacting over 70 people during the last few days. Businesses are busy reopening as infections rise.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/20/21, at 3:00 AM EST: First Day of Spring in the northern hemisphere. The time has come. The Friday data is typically the most robust data of the week. The US is at 30.4 million infections and 554K dead. The US reports 65,981 daily new cases a disappointing number above the 63.5K in each of the prior two days. Three days of elevated daily new cases creates a flatness in the 7-day MA at 55.6K, which is not a good sign, since a curve that is descending has to flatten before it curls higher. The last 3 days of daily new cases are running about 10K above the 7-day MA which will pull the trend line higher. Oh-no. The 3-day MA on the US daily new case chart loses the downtrend of lower lows and lower highs. The 3-day MA trend line is at 64.3K now and the prior peak in the 3-day was on 3/12/21 at 64.1K (a higher high is made instead of a lower high; the downtrend is over). The drop in daily new cases in the United States has ended. This is terrible news. The daily cases must drop to pull the trend lower again, otherwise, we are screwed. It does not paint a rosy picture. The Friday data is once again the highest data of the week. Last week, on 3/12/21, the US had 68.3K daily new cases. Now it is 66.0K. If you want to cover yourself with a tiny China Flu fig leaf this is it. This Friday's case data is a smidgeon below last Friday's although the naysayer's will call it a draw and say the numbers remain elevated. 1,268 Americans die from COVID-19 yesterday. The weekend data would be expected to be lighter so the only revelation today and tomorrow would be if the numbers come in high. Oh-no. Michigan daily new cases spike to another high at 4,417 cases. There is something nasty going on up north and the medical doctors say they do not yet have a handle on it. Is it another variant? Detroit; protect yourselves folks. Do everything possible including masking, social distancing, hand washing, hand sanitizer and limiting trips to the grocery store and elsewhere. Tell your neighbors. Stay at home. Take vitamins D-3 and C and zinc. The vaccine program is ramping up but it is too late to help Michigan with the current outbreak. Michigan's active cases chart is starting to go vertical (bad). New Jersey's daily cases remain elevated. Ditto New York, Illinois, Georgia, Ohio, Florida and others. There is a troubling look to the daily new cases that are flat in many states and now beginning to skew higher. California is seeing a bump up in new daily cases and its active cases curve is dead-flat refusing to drop lower. Texas and Arizona are hanging in there with an ever so lower daily case count although the path forward is tenuous. Biden created a southern border crisis with 1 in 4 migrants entering the US testing positive for covid. It is interesting that Texas and Arizona are not yet negatively impacted although daily cases in New Mexico are flat threatening to start bumping higher. A large part of the population is vaccinated in New Mexico.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/20/21, at 4:00 AM EST: On a global scale, 123 million people are infected with over 2.7 million dead. Brazil and India are in terrible shape. Ditto Europe and sections of Africa. Conditions in the US may deteriorate. The world almost seems to be in the same sick shape it was a year ago. Cases have now flattened in Russia setting up potential trouble ahead for hospitals already overrun since October (the cases may begin to increase again). France reports the highest daily cases in 4 months. Germany's daily cases are spiking higher and the active cases curve is now going vertical. The pandemic may only end when it chooses to end.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 3/20/21, at 1:00 PM EST: Spring break in Miami and other Florida locations is out of control. Young people are frolicking as if a pandemic is not occurring boozing, singing, dancing, yelling, partying and puking. Fights break out. A few restaurants are trashed. Officials step in and declare a curfew from 8 PM EST to 6 AM EST. The crowds are too big to handle. Spring break is over in Florida but the revelers may travel to other party-friendly states. The partiers will now cough and pick their noses, or pick whatever, all the way back to every state in the union via the airports. Humans are sometimes not the smartest animals but everyone was young once.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 3/20/21, at 4:00 PM EST: The racist Asian talk continues on the liberal-leaning news networks such as CNN and MSNBC. The same three videos of Asian violence is shown on television the tapes now a month old. Where is all this rampant out of control violence? Sensitive folks keep complaining that saying China Virus causes all the violence against Asians. You want to be sympathetic to their concerns but they are stupid for thinking that. Americans do not think that way. The Asian discrimination is a problem in the racist cities of Atlanta, New York and San Francisco. The rest of America gets along fine as you know since all your friends, coworkers, neighbors and others you interact with all day long are all shapes and sizes and colors and religions. The constant hate talk on television divides the United States more each day and exposes who the true racists and racist rhetoric promoters are in America. Hate is a terrible word and should only be used sparingly; it is spewed too much these days so like other things, it loses its meaning.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/21/21, at 1:00 AM EST: Coronavirus shuts down Europe. Protesters hit the streets sick of the pandemic restrictions. Perhaps herd immunity will eventually be reached simply by enough people becoming sick. Frustration occurs since lockdown measures do not seem to help. Also, the European vaccination program is a debacle. The incompetence of the continent is on full display and could jeopardize the European Union in the future. Europe is unhappy with the UK as the vaccine nationalism deepens. AstraZeneca manufactures vaccine in the UK and Europe. Vaccine flows from Europe to UK but not from the UK to Europe. Worries increase that the South Africa B1351 is spreading in France. France President Macron's popularity slips in the polls. 5% to 10% of the Paris infections are the South Africa B1351. Italy's outbreak worsens. Milan! Didn't everyone learn their lesson from a year ago? The fashion industry are the beautiful people, the hip jet set. They are cruising the world, flashing the cash, smoking long skinny ciggy's and snorting cocaine off the bathroom toilet lid at exotic locations around the globe. The bad outbreak in Europe last year originated in a big part from Milan, Italy, the capital of the fashion industry. The China Flu was brought to Europe by travelers from Wuhan (the epicenter of COVID-19). The filthy CCP (Chinese communists) knew that the coronavirus was being unleashed upon the world because they were restricting travel at the same time they allowed people to board airplanes to leave China. For the present outbreak in central and eastern Europe, the B1351 may be carried by the fashion industry folks flying back and forth from South Africa where there is beautiful women and exotic places to shoot film.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/21/21, at 2:00 AM EST: In Japan, the Olympics will proceed but without an international audience. Japan's data says it is a stupid decision although the Games are in July. Good luck trying to predict what will happen. About 77% of Japanese folks are agreeable to canceling or postponing the Olympics; they are likely correct. Japan's daily new cases are running at 1.5K per day for the last three days the highest numbers since early February. The 7-day MA is trending higher. Japan's active cases curve is now curling higher. The Olympics may devolve into a coronavirus fiasco we can only hope it does not. Another week or two of data will tell the tale but the torch is set to be lit and begin its trek to the Games. Once this occurs, the Olympics are cast in concrete even if the runners are coughing, wheezing and puking. It is a shame that athletes train a few years only to be shafted by the China Flu but sometimes life hands you a piece of sh*t; that is all there is to it. You have to eat the sh*t sandwich and move on. Japan returns 600K Olympic tickets to foreigners that had planned to attend. Japan also closes off volunteers for the Olympics from foreign countries. Humorously, the Games may simply be the athletes competing with one masked cameraman following them around. It would be nice for the athletes, and world, to pull it off but all Japan can do is roll the dice.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/21/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports almost 555K dead from the Wuhan Virus. Yesterday, the US reports 55,908 daily new cases. This is disappointing. The number should be lower since it is the weekend. The 56K is exactly at the 7-day MA at 56K so it only serves to flatten or lift the trend line which is bad. The 3-day MA is at 62K remaining elevated at this 62K-64K area signaling that the downtrend in the data is likely over. We are likely watching the conception of the fourth coronavirus wave in the United States. The spring break for university students, St Patty's Day parties, US states reopening restaurants, bars and gyms at breakneck speed, and the spring weather and pandemic fatigue, are encouraging risky behavior and likely guaranteeing a fourth wave outcome. The vaccination program is moving along quickly with 1 in 4 Americans having received a shot so the race between vaccinations and variants continues. Public officials are voicing concern that the reopening of the economy is proceeding too fast as 21 US states now report rises in daily cases. A New York resident tests positive for the Brazil P1 variant; medical officials are alarmed because a high percentage of people that have already had covid are becoming reinfected with the P1 variant (the natural antibodies do not provide adequate protection against P1). The pandemic news was hopeful 2 to 4 weeks ago but it is now deteriorating daily around the world. It is a vaccine versus variant cage fight. Two enter but only one will exit.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/21/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The rumor mill continues churning on New York Governor Cuomo's future. The covid nursing home scandal is sinking the Cuomo ship but the public is more titilated and aroused by alleged sexual improprieties by the governor. Cuomo is cooked. Someone needs to tap him on the shoulder and tell him to move on to his life's work that will not be politics. Cuomo will be associated with the coronavirus nursing home scandal forever. US hospitalizations are leveling off in the 34K to 36K range (7-day MA) with 33K hospitalizations reported on Thursday the latest data. As daily cases increase, hospitalizations increase. The 7-day MA trend line at 34K-36K is your tool to determine the road ahead. Below 34K is a great path forward while over 36K will be pain ahead. The 7-day MA continues sloping lower albeit gradually now. Virus trouble is underway and accelerating if the 7-day MA flattens and then curls higher.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/22/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The Philippines has taken a tragic turn for the worse. It is frightening. Philippine's daily new cases skyrocket above 7.7K for two days running, the highest ever, and the active cases curve has gone vertical. Indonesia and Malaysia were in bad shape a month ago but have put that wave behind them. Malaysia, however, is seeing a bump higher in daily cases the last 3 days. If you know your world geography, and sprinkle-on some conspiracy theory dust, and since the wicked outbreak now occurring in Philippines appears isolated in that region, perhaps China is up to more nefarious bioterrorism activity having a hand in creating the sickness in Philippines which would now only need a quick boat ride north to infect Taiwan. Of course the filthy CCP would then move into Taiwan not as a military event but instead as a humanitarian gesture to help with the pandemic. Note how the communists crushed the democratic movement in Hong Kong with coronavirus. This may have been the original reason the dirtbag CCP instructed the Wuhan bioterrorism laboratories to experiment with coronavirus. The demented Satinistic CCP is developing unique genetic pathogens that preferentially target (kill) specific races and ethnicities. Do you think China wants the world to itself? Do you think they were involved in this nefarious activity when something when wrong? If this does not scare the Hell out of you, it should. The CCP crushed Hong Kong with coronavirus; it is now just another communist city. If this terrible scenario plays out with Taiwan, you will have a deeper understanding of the way the world works. Taiwan! Close off your southern ports (Taiwan already has ongoing restrictions on all its ports)! Do not allow any entries from Philippines! Quarantine everything coming in because the filthy CCP may be playing more virus games. If Taiwan experiences an outbreak, the dirtbag CCP would blame Philippines. The international game can become quite complex. Taiwan, be super vigilant. The US wants you to succeed. Watch your borders. Your future likely depends on it.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/22/21, at 2:30 AM EST: Dozens of dead pigs are floating in the Yellow River in China the bloated carcasses stinking in the sun. African Swine Flu (ASF) has been a problem in the pig population killing millions of hogs over the last couple years. Disease, animals and China are an ongoing theme in this modern world. Tens of thousands of pigs have died or were culled in Africa over the last few months. This news is fascinating. West Africa, South Africa, Tanzania, and over the last few weeks, Togo, are all dealing with ASF in their pig population. WOW!!! THESE ARE ALL THE MAJOR OUTBREAK AREAS OF CORONAVIRUS IN AFRICA. THE CONNECTION BETWEEN INCREASED HUMAN TRANSMISSION OF CHINA FLU AND PIGS SICK WITH ASF IS OBVIOUS. All nations need to focus on how pigs and hogs move around the world. Remember, a couple articles ago, Africa's problems were highlighted and it was mentioned that there should be a link between all the port countries of Guinea, Ghana, Togo, Benin, South Africa, Tanzania and others, where the latest outbreak has occurred. IT'S THE PIGS!!! This is a remarkable lightbulb moment. Like in the Soylent Green movie when Charlton Heston shouts, "It's people! Soylent Green is people!" Or when Alexander Graham Bell and Thomas Watson discovered how to send sound through wires. Perhaps COVID-19, for whatever reason, survives a long time on pigs either in the fur or around the mouth, nose or anal areas. Or is it the fleas on the pigs? There is something about the pigs, African Swine Flu and COVID-19 that is related. All those port-based countries in Africa are loading and unloading hogs and pigs all the time and COVID-19 is likely piggy-backing, no pun intended, on the pigs either internally or externally or on machines or packaging or cages used to transfer animals. Maybe humans track disease from ships on their shoes. The data will always point you in the right direction. THE LINK BETWEEN COVID-19 AND ASF IS BLINDING. Perhaps the big shots that follow the Coronavirus Chronology, or news organizations, can explore this path of coronavirus transmission. The COVID-19 cases are dramatically underreported in Africa which must also be considered. This link between covid and ASF is further bolstered. IN EUROPE, SEVERAL COUNTRIES HAVE HAD PROBLEMS WITH ASF IN PIGS INCLUDING GERMANY, MOLDOVA, POLAND, ROMANIA, RUSSIA, SERBIA AND UKRAINE. ALL HAVE BEEN OR CURRENTLY ARE COVID-19 HOTSPOTS!!! THE DEVELOPING HYPOTHESIS GAINS MORE TRACTION IN ASIA. ASF IS A PROBLEM IN CHINA, INDIA, INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES!!! ALL HOTSPOTS!!! ASF IS A HIGHLY CONTATIOUS DISEASE THAT PIERCES BORDERS AND BOUNDARIES EFFORTLESSLY. IT IS OBVIOUS. THE KEY TO UNDESTANDING COVID-19 IS THE PIGS. THE AFRICAN SWINE FLU OUTBREAKS, AND PIG TRANSPORTATION AROUND THE WORLD WILL PROVIDE MAJOR ANSWERS CONCERNING THE TRANSMISSION OF CHINA FLU AROUND THE WORLD. This discovery in the data is fantastic and remarkable but will science and people with big budgets explore this obvious transmission mechanism and link between COVID-19 and ASF? IT'S THE PIGS! There is some type of relation between pigs, African Swine Flu and COVID-19 that promotes the transmission of covid around the world.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/22/21, at 3:00 AM EST: AstraZeneca reports that their two-shot vaccine is 79% effective in the US trials which will set up emergency approval in the weeks ahead. It is convenient, perhaps purposeful, that the positive news occurs as Europeans struggle with accepting the vaccine after the blood clot scare. It was only about 30 blood clot cases after nearly 20 million shots. All vaccines come with risks but the blood clot concern appears to be overblown. Vaccine nationalism continues with the EU and UK battling. The EU threatens to implement an export ban of AstraZeneca vaccine because they feel the pharma company has short-changed the continent due to production delays and other problems. At the same time, the UK is enjoying a successful tamping down of their pandemic with the use of the vaccine. The EU is doubly-mad because they fear that other countries may want to exit the union like the UK. After all, the UK appears to be in good shape while Europe is in chaos, confusion and disarray. In Marseille, France, over 6K young people take to the streets protesting the confusing pandemic instructions and one year of chaos. Some of the French people are saying to Hell with it all and starting to do their own thing (loss of confidence in governments and institutions).
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/22/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The US reports 40K daily new cases, a welcomed sight, but it is Sunday data which is always the lowest data. The 7-day MA is stone-cold flat at 55K-56K cases. This is the line in the sand. Watch the daily new case data early this week, Monday through Wednesday, since 3 days will be enough to see if the cases run above 56K, or below 55K. The former is sad and the latter is happy. Considering the fast reopening of the economy, robust traveling, spring break parties and many Americans throwing caution to the wind, stripping off the pandemic fatigue ties that bind them, a betting person would expect the bad outcome to be confirmed in the week ahead.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 3/22/21: Interestingly, in a television interview with Hugh Hewitt, Fauci says he has an open mind to the use of ivermectin, the deworming drug, for the treatment of covid. He says medical studies are ongoing and wants to wait for the data to know if and how well it helps. An advantage of ivermectin is no side effects (ivermectin will not hurt you). Ivermectin is used across South America. Those nations do not have vaccines so ivermectin is used with solid success; they are using what works and not waiting around for medical science to tell them it works.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/23/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The US daily new cases remain at 46K for 2 days which is good news. The Monday data would have been expected to increase. The 7-day MA is at 57K so it is great that the daily cases are below which will help pull the trend line lower. However, the 7-day MA now has a distinct curl higher. The 7-day MA is at 57K the last 2 days after several days of 56K. The trend line moving higher is a very bad thing so Monday's data is a welcome sight. There is collegial controversy occurring over the path ahead for the US. Many doctors are concerned about a fourth wave as they should be considering the 7-day MA trend line moving higher, the St Patty's parties, the spring break parties and people throwing caution to the wind shedding their pandemic fatigue. Other doctors such as Gottlieb say herd immunity is on the way and a fourth wave will be avoided. The warmer weather will help alleviate the spread of covid. Also the vaccination program is hitting its stride now and the daily cases, although very worrisome and leveling out, are not definitively moving up as yet. In Michigan, where a nasty outbreak is occurring, the guidelines on opening restaurants and schools is relaxed during February. It is easy to see the correlation. Lots of people are getting sick after the covid rules are relaxed. Uncle Sam continues walking on coronavirus eggshells since the data will not yet commit lower, or higher. The trend should expose itself in the coming days but the negative data from Michigan and other states hint that the less than optimum outcome may sadly win the day. Gottlieb and the others expecting herd immunity to occur in 2 or 3 months are likely banking a lot of that call on more Americans being sick with covid over the last year than anyone realizes (a lot more people have natural antibodies than scientists think). Variants remain a major worry and the outbreak in Michigan is suspected to be due to B117. Florida has more B117 variant cases than any other state and that is where the spring break partiers are boozing, yelling, singing and comingling, and then returning home to say hello to Mom, Dad, Grandma and Grandpap. The videos of the Florida revelers show a lot more age variation than college students. Since republican Governor DeSantis relaxed the covid guidelines in Florida, young Americans are flocking to the Sunshine State to par-tay!
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/23/21, at 3:00 AM EST: China removes the dead pigs floating in the Yellow River. Of course they do; it is bad press to have dead pigs floating in your waterways. US regulators are concerned that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information and data in its report. People are going to lose confidence in AstraZeneca's vaccine and the negative news snippets likely reinforce minds that are adverse to receiving any shot in the arm. Germany plans a hard lockdown through Easter, 4/12/21. Travel companies and hotels are sold off in the stock market again. The United States is where Germany was about a month ago. Germany imposed a strict lockdown, which did not work. To the Deutschland's and Chancellor Merkel's credit, the virus was held at bay longer than any neighboring country, however, therein lies the problem. The data was interesting to watch when the countries around Germany, such as Denmark, Belgium, France, Austria, Czechia and Poland, were sinking into the new outbreak wave with daily cases, hospitalizations and deaths charts going skyward. Germany remained steady but then tick by tick, day by day, the infections increased. It proves that no matter what you do, you are beholding to your neighbors. Like when you are married you must embrace the in-laws; you have chosen to sail with that ship of fools. That is why Germany can impose an even stricter lockdown, with grocery stores closed for several days per week, but the infections from neighboring countries will eventually sink the ship. It is interesting that if Germany was on an island, say like the UK, its coronavirus lockdown discipline would likely show a far greater positive outcome. However, they have to sail with that ship of fools that have infections escalating out of control, and now Germany does, too. This analogy holds for the US since every state is making up its own rules due to lack of Federal leadership under former President Trump. In life, humans typically sink to the lowest common denominator.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/23/21, at 3:00 AM EST: UK PM Johnson is accelerating the vaccine program as much as possible as the cases on the continent run higher. Johnson is afraid that Europe's third wave "will wash up on our shores" so he is focused on the vaccination program. Many countries are in a race between vaccinations and variants. Europe lost. The USA is neck and neck coming down the home stretch. The UK wants to claim victory but is humbled by the power of the contagious coronavirus. The 3 and 7-day MA's for the UK's daily new cases are at 5.4K cases. Yesterday's data is 5.3K cases. That is England's line in the sand; 5.4K. The UK will begin descending down the covid rabbit hole again if cases begin running to 5.5K, 5.7K and 6.0K. The UK remains happy and hopeful as long as the new cases remain below 5.4K and heading lower. The data over the next week will likely tell the UK's future over the next month of two.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.