By K E Stone (Keystone)
The China Flu has infected over 115 million people worldwide.
The pandemic, originating in Wuhan, China, has killed over 2.55 million people.
It is too big a number to even comprehend. Almost 91 million global citizens have
recovered from coronavirus. 79% of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame; this number improves by 1 percentage point
over the last 10 days adding to the joyful 4 percentage-point increase over the
prior 11-day period. People around the world are recovering incrementally
faster if they become sick with covid. Almost 4 out of every 5 people that
contract covid around the world recover. 1 in 5 people have lingering effects
from the Wuhan Flu, or die.
2.2% of the people that are infected with covid around the
world die which is a slight decrease from 10 days ago. This number is
unfortunately remaining steady. 1 in every 45 people that are infected with
COVID-19 around the world, will die.
1.5% of the world’s population of 7.67 billion people has been infected
with coronavirus; 1 in every 66.6 people, an interesting number.
Coronavirus was released by the CCP (China’s Communist
Party), either intentionally or accidentally, from one of its two secretive
bioweapons laboratories in Wuhan, China (the press and WHO only visit one lab;
the communists deny the existence of the second lab).
In the United States, 29.3 million people are infected with
covid. Over 527K Americans are dead. The 500K grim milestone was only crossed
the other day! Many of the healthcare workers, medics, nurses, doctors,
ambulance drivers, even funeral directors and undertakers, must be mentally and
emotionally spent, some perhaps distraught, from the daily human tragedy.
Dealing with death daily can become overwhelming so medical
folks have to take a minute for themselves, several times a day, to take a
breath, and eat well, and hydrate, so they can keep up the good fight. Their
efforts are greatly appreciated.
The Superbowl did not become a superspreader event so
Americans have to be given credit. Folks are obeying the masking and social
distancing guidelines to the best of their ability, despite the mixed
messaging. Americans respect the efforts of the healthcare workers and that is
shown by everyone following the guidelines, for the most part. President Biden
asked the country to war a mask during his first 100 days in office.
19.8 million Americans have recovered from covid so it will
be nice to get this number above 20. This equates to 68% of US citizens recovering
after becoming infected with COVID-19 a 2 percentage-point increase over the
last 10 days adding to the joyful 3 percentage-points over the prior 11-day
period. Americans are incrementally recovering faster. 2 out of every 3 people
that contract covid in America recover which is not as good as the world’s
average. This is likely in part due to the obesity problem in America which
leads to heart and lung issues, and diseases such as diabetes, that place the
person at a disadvantage once they catch the virus. 1 in 3 Americans have
lingering effects from the COVID-19, or die.
1.8% of Americans that are infected with coronavirus die
which remains steady. 1 in every 56 US citizens that are infected with coronavirus
will die. The death rate in the US is below the world’s average likely due to
better medical care. 8.9% of the American population of 330 million people have
been infected with covid. 1 in every 11 Americans have been stricken with
coronavirus a terrible number and stunning statistic.
Minority communities disproportionately suffer from the
pandemic. There are more people sick and that have died in their communities as
compared to a white upper class McMansion neighborhood. Perhaps some people do
not openly discuss their COVID-19 illness for fear that they may be shunned by
friends or family or be at a job disadvantage. You always find out who your
true loyal friends and family are when you become ill; but at least it makes it
easier to write the will.
Vaccine inequality is a zeitgeist topic nowadays. According
to a KFF study, the old Kaiser Family Foundation from San Francisco that goes
by the KFF letters now, where a little more than half of the vaccinated
people’s ethnicity was known, 63% of the vaccinations are white folks, 9%
Hispanic, 6% Black, 5% Asian and 2% Native American. Looks like the white folks
will outlive them all. It is a joke folks, so do not anyone get offended or mad,
but feel free to laugh.
Sadly, in Alabama, South Dakota and New Mexico, less than 3%
of the black folks are vaccinated as of a couple days ago. South Dakota can
have a pass since there are not a lot of black folks living up in those cold
hills.
One of the reasons for the glaring discrepancy where 63% of
the vaccinations are white folks, is that a majority of the healthcare workers,
doctors, nurses, medics and ambulance drivers are white. They receive shots
since they ae caring for the sick. Another reason is that the most vaccinated
group, middle-aged and older white females, are very computer-savvy, and most
have computers in their homes. They can fly from one website to another
registering at multiple vaccination sites, but poor Donna and Rosalee, that
Keystone would help at the thrift store, do not have a computer or understand
what to do. They are passed over like yesterday’s succotash. The vaccination
program will right itself but no doubt the rich and the connected people will
always skip to the head of the line. Human greed does not only apply to money;
it applies to vaccines as well.
The liberal-leaning media is feeding a race narrative to the
public repeating derogatory names such as ‘Chinese Flu’ and ‘Kung Flu’ to
incite people’s emotions and whip up race drama. Politicians in New York (think
Chinatown) and San Francisco (that has a large Asian population) are hyping up
attacks on Asian folks and they are blaming it all on people calling the
pandemic the Chinese Flu. Are they serious? Isn’t that something?
Few people refer to the pandemic as Chinese Flu even former
President Trump may have only said that a couple times. It is called the China
Flu, or China Virus, or Wuhan Flu, or Wuhan Virus, since that is easier to say.
The pandemic 100 years ago is called the Spanish Flu not because some sensitive
eggheads decided that was the name that all of society shall use by their
decree. Spain Flu does not have a ring to it. Spanish Flu does. The people
decide. The pandemic zeitgeist decides what a pandemic is called. The Spanish
Flu is what the public called the pandemic so that is what it is called. China
Flu has staying power since it rolls off the tongue nicely. Everyone knows it
has zero ill will meant at any Asian folks; it simply means that is where it
started. Duh.
Chinese Flu is not as easy to say as China Flu. The pandemic
will go down as the China Flu and covid pandemic. This is the way the pubic talks
about the pandemic during a regular day.
Make sure to tune out that race stuff when you see it. Of
course there are some Asian folks that may be accosted by nutcases. Get those
whack jobs arrested and off the street. Problem solved. The Japanese were
greatly mistreated in WW II and the US would never return to that indecency. The
Muslim folks were wrongly looked down upon after 911 and during the height of
the suicide bombings. After the nutcase Muslims were ferreted out, however,
everything settled down.
Americans are not targeting Asian folks; do not believe the
dribble. There are always nutcases in every group and race and ethnicity you
can name. That is what jails are for so everyone else can live normally and get
along.
America is not a racist nation and anyone saying otherwise
is someone and something to avoid and ignore. Look at your daily life and
interactions. You are not a racist and neither is anyone around you. People
need to grow up. America has a lot of adult babies in official positions that
lack normal everyday common sense and life experiences.
COVID-19 is the China Flu. Interestingly, the New York
strain B1526 is getting nasty. We may have an American Flu on our hands next,
or New York Flu, or Washington Heights Virus (where B1526 originated). If so,
at least the race-baiters will feel better about things.
Prisoners are under higher risk for contracting covid. The
criminals, mostly petty thieves and drunks, are doing time in the county
lock-ups or maybe state penitentiaries where the harder time is logged. Inmates
in prisons are infected with covid at three times the rate of the average
population. People are doing their time and paying their debt to society but
they should not be subjected to an increased chance of getting coronavirus,
especially from Guido in Cellblock D that has the coughing fits.
Vaccine supply and production issues are a constant battle
but improving. There are four key vaccines in emergency use around the world;
two mRNA vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna and two adenovirus-based vaccines
AstraZeneca/Oxford and Johnson & Johnson. One year into the pandemic, and
finally there are four effective tools available to fight back. That’s great.
As a side note, the pronunciation of BioNTech is not
bio-N-tech as often heard and repeated. Pronounce it like the word beyond as in
beyond tech, only drop the y sound, bee-on-tech. Also, if you are across the
pond, it is Oxford/AstraZeneca giving top-billing to the esteemed University of
Oxford with roots back to 1096.
The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 95% effective. Moderna 94%.
AstraZeneca 76%. The newly emergency-approved J&J vaccine is 66% effective.
Johnny John has started a two-shot trial and the expectation is that the
results will match the mRNA vaccines. Pfizer and Moderna had an easier road to travel because many of their drug trial participants were healthy middle-aged white folks. Subsequent vaccines are being tested on far more diverse groups in age and ethnicity. Any of the shots are effective. That is why the medical folks tell you to take whatever you can get.
President Biden announces today that Merck will team-up with
J&J to produce the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. This is big news because
the bitter rivalries among pharma companies is legendary but this competition
is set aside for a Kumbaya moment that will help the country. Two Merck
factories will be retooled to produce the vaccine but it will likely take a
couple months to crank-out vaccine.
Biden says America will have enough vaccine for the entire
population by May two months earlier than the July goal touted only a couple
weeks ago. J&J is a game-changer. The question is how many Americans will
roll up their sleeves?
With all this vaccine happy news, by Christmastime, we will
be swimming in vaccine. We will be receiving it in our Christmas stockings. People
will be handing out vaccine on street corners. Do you get the feeling that the
medical folks plan on jabbing people with vaccines for the next 2 or 3 years?
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are two-shots while the
AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines are one-shot deals. The J&J vaccine can be
stored in normal refrigerators. The news media makes a big deal that people
will want the mRNA vaccines since they are more effective but that idea may be
misplaced.
Young people planning families may be hesitant to take the
mRNA vaccine and actually prefer the non-mRNA shots. Also, one shot is easier
than two. The medical professionals, Fauci, Walensky, everyone, say if you have
any opportunity to take any of the vaccines, take it, do not hesitate. Do not
be picky, which is also good advice Mom would give to all of you young single
men in your 20’s and 30’s.
The vaccine demand continues to outpace supply. Apparently,
a lot of people feel their lives are worth living. A bottleneck is occurring in
the scheduling. Elderly folks are waiting on telephones for long periods of
time only to hang up emptyhanded as the arthritis becomes too unbearable. Many
folks do not have the wherewithal to navigate web sites like the upper educated
class.
Some of the computer-savvy folks are registering at multiple
vaccination sites which takes up slots from other people. Humans are greedy
animals. Once an appointment is finalized and shot received, some remember to
cancel the other registrations, some do not.
The government’s vaccination scheduling sites are not doing
as well as the local pharmacies. Folks that have been vaccinated say dealing
with their local pharmacy is working out well and effortless; make an
appointment and you get a shot. There is typically an email link between the
customer and pharmacy already in place which is a trusted form of
communication.
West Virginia had its great success in vaccine distribution
by using the knowhow, trust and location of the local pharmacies to their
advantage. Do not reinvent the wheel. Go with what works. Recruit more
pharmacies. Give them money so they can start vaccinating their client lists.
People likely feel more comfortable dealing with their pharmacy especially
those that received flu or tetanus shots at the pharmacy in the past.
The anti-vaccination folks, anti-vaxxer’s, will not be
changing their minds so the medical folks will have to run their models to see
how many extra beds may be needed for these hard-headed folks.
The vaccine hesitant people are a key focus as they should
be since as long as their questions are respected and answered thoroughly, most
will roll-up their sleeves and take the vaccine. A lot of the angst in the
population is due the one year of pandemic confusion, chaos and mixed messages
and of course former President Trump always telling folks to not worry about the
pandemic. King Donnie told everyone “we are rounding the corner” for five
months and it ended with the orange head infected with covid.
400K Americans are dead on Trump’s watch and over 120K are
dead under Biden’s watch already. People simply want to understand what the
government wants to stick into their arm. Everyone is being adult about the
situation and the vaccination program keeps gaining momentum. The Texas power
outage debacle and winter cold snap across America was a couple-week setback.
When it rains, it pours.
There are several other vaccines at play or in the works.
Novavax is a hopeful protein-based vaccine that may reach approval this month
or next. Check that. The news wires say Novavax hopes to have results by May so
it looks like the goal post slipped a little again. You never know, however,
since the government may be working with Novavax to develop vaccines targeting
the new variants, and this necessitates the delays. Initial results on the
Novavax vaccine indicate 89% efficacy. As the day continues, there are rumors
in the back rooms that Novavax is missing deadlines it had set for its vaccine.
NVAX stock collapses -15%.
The Sputnik V vaccine from Russia, adenovirus-based, is in
use in some European nations. Russia claims 91% efficacy but they are filthy
liars so you know the number is fudged. The China-based Sinovac vaccine is
available with a wide range of efficacy most likely only in the 50% area. China
released the virus. Why would anyone want their witches brew vaccine they now
concocted perhaps in the same sick bioweapons laboratories? A Hong Kong man
dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. An investigation begins. He was probably
part of the Hong Kong resistance.
India is having success with Covaxin, a drug developed by
Bhara Biotech and the Indian Council of Medical Research, that indicates 81%
efficacy. It is better than prior tests and expectations. Good on India.
In America, the vaccine messaging has changed slightly. US
doctors and spokespeople are stressing that the vaccines achieve the most
important goal; saving lives, preventing death. And that is true. Pandemic 101
teaches that the first step begins with vaccines and preventing the deaths in
every way possible. No one wants to say goodbye to Mom, Uncle Charlie, Yolanda
or Aunt Savita. The second step is decreasing hospitalizations so the
healthcare workers can catch a break and get some downtime. America is on its
way to victory with spring only 3 weeks away, however, Labor Day is only 6
months away when the new flu and coronavirus seasons begin.
Herd immunity may not be achieved by Labor Day. The
vaccination program may run out of arms in the April and May timeframe as those
that wanted the vaccine have received it. The rubber will meet the road as to
whether the government forces mandatory vaccinations down people’s throats. If
so, civil war begins. Governments should not force people to take on the Mark
of the Beast. Israel has a green card program for the folks vaccinated that
affords them travel and recreational privileges.
Companies are providing monetary incentives, time off and
other offerings to encourage employees to get vaccinated. J P Morgan CEO Jamie
Dimon opines in a Bloomberg interview that his bank will not make vaccinations
mandatory but they will be encouraged to get the shot with a carrot and stick
approach. In corporate America, all that fancy talk means get the vaccine if
not, the bank will find a way to place demerits on your record and eventually
force you out. You must kneel and give your soul to the company store.
It will be a new human tragedy if vaccine passports become
reality. This sick path forward will only create a society and playground for
the globe’s elite privileged class. The wealthy receive the best medical
treatment and will travel and attend the world’s most prestigious events. Government
political systems will be tested going forward. The vaccine passports would
contain lots of other information. Maybe you will be deemed not worthy for
other reasons contained within your passport data.
The vaccine nationalism versus diplomacy tug-o-war continues
with diplomacy winning. Vaccine doses are shipping to third world countries via
the COVAX program that is associated with the troubled WHO. Columbia receives
vaccine and they deserve it. Columbia is one of the worst hit nations on earth
and it is dealing with the refugees from Venezuela.
All in all, diplomacy is winning out against nationalism
right now. Countries realize the entire world is engulfed in the pandemic so it
is better to work together. The virus can be defeated faster if the world was
coordinated in its response and it is to a great extent.
WHO is in bed with China from the start which exacerbated
the pandemic around the world. Nonetheless, nations and peoples must work
together to defeat the coronavirus. In the words of Ben Franklin, standing on that
soap box in 1776, “We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we
shall all hang separately.”
Doc Fauci speaks at the University of Edinburgh calling for
“global cooperation” in the fight against covid and in vaccine distribution. He
opines about the smallpox, polio, measles and other past diseases that were
eradicated by global cooperation. Fauci says the US should be on its way to
normalcy next year but the world will have to catch up. No one knows what
normal means anymore.
Keep taking zinc and vitamin D-3 which boosts your immune
system and may help prevent the onset of the virus. Vitamins A and C are also
helpful and turmeric. All of these should be part of a daily regimen regardless
of coronavirus. In addition, initial medical studies show that selenium
supplementation may be helpful in reducing the effects of coronavirus. Selenium
is already known as a cancer-preventive supplement.
As always, check with doc before mapping-out any vitamin and
supplement program. The best prevention is to simply stay as far away as
possible from people. If you practice this ‘extreme social distancing’ and
choose to get the vaccine, you will be in great shape and not have to worry
about contracting covid at all.
Other non-mainstream treatments for coronavirus continue to
receive attention such as the MATH+ protocols. These studies are very useful at
testing and identifying what works and what does not work. They have seen
firsthand success with ivermectin so some folks may want to discuss this with
their doctors.
The hydroxychloroquine gamesmanship continues. The American political
tribes and their state-run medias, take sides for and against
hydroxychloroquine that was hyped by former President Trump. Comically, that
tells you right away what side the republicans and democrats are on. The truth
is that medical studies have shown that hydroxychloroquine may help as a
preventive measure and for the early onset of coronavirus but is totally
useless if a patient develops covid and especially if hospitalized.
So of course the republicans, Fox News, Newsmax and AM talk
radio shout from the rooftops that hydroxychloroquine is the best thing since
sliced bread and should be used by all doctors, ignoring the fact that the drug
is useless once you become very sick with covid. The democrats scream,
“Blasphemy!” and with the help of CNN, MSNBC and the broadcast networks ABC,
CBS and NBC, and PBS and NPR, proclaim that hydroxychloroquine is 100% useless
and should never be used ever, choosing to ignore the fact that the drug does
help as a preventive and during the early onset of covid. Isn’t it ridiculous,
folks? And sad. But this is the crony capitalism system in America in 2021.
People choose to wear a team shirt for one side or the
other, red or blue, then only hear the talking points of that side, which
reinforces their erroneous beliefs. Stick with Keystone he will always talk
straight with you even if it stuff you do not want to hear.
The NIH stops the covid plasma treatment trials. The program
found that the treatment did not provide benefit to the coronavirus patients. Last
year, plasma antibody treatment was praised as a key tool to combat the virus but
a few months later it is tossed into the covid trash bin. Live and learn.
Everyone is learning as we go along so we can prepare for any future pandemics.
The coronavirus variants are the 900-pound gorillas sitting on
the living room sofa and you can hear the floorboard creaking. There are over
2,100 variant cases in the United States and that number can be greatly
increased since adequate genetic sequencing is not in place. All the important
priority matters keep falling on the medical professionals’ shoulders. Funding
and staffing for DNA testing is needed.
The big concern is the five major coronavirus variants at
play; the UK strain B117, the South Africa variant B1351, Brazil strain B11248
or P1, New York variant B1526 (see below) and California strain B1427/B1429
(see below). The vaccines are effective against the UK strain but less-so for
the South Africa strain which is also a more deadly strain. The vaccines may be
least effective against the New York strain now spreading rapidly within New
York City.
The first troubling virus jump from animal (mink) to human
was in Denmark last year and that variant is dubbed “Cluster 5.” The Denmark
variant appears to be held at bay these days but, as explained below with the
countries list and discussions, the active cases curve is curling higher which
is not good news. The central and eastern Europe region is experiencing an
uptick in daily new coronavirus cases. Millions of mink were sadly culled in
Denmark to stop the spread of the virus but that was their ultimate destiny
anyway. Too bad the meat and fur could not be used to honor the animal’s life.
Perhaps it was.
Doc Fauci, who has been batted around like a piñata by
anyone that has a grievance against the pandemic, is concerned about the New
York strain dubbed B1526. The Biden administration says this new variant is
serious business. It can be called the New York Flu, or perhaps it will be
called the Washington Heights Flu where it originated (upper Manhattan), or, if
it continues spreading it may become the American Flu.
About 800 New Yorker’s are infected with the new B1526
variant and another 400 people across the US that visited the Washington
Heights area and returned home. This is not good. No wonder the medical folks
are concerned. 1 in 4 DNA sequencing tests in New York City are B1526. The
mutation that first appeared in November may be spinning out of control. If you
want to go off into the weeds, the E484K mutation subset is wreaking the most
havoc. New York state’s active cases curve has topped out and is rolling over,
like the US curve overall, but folks would be well advised to redouble efforts
over the next couple weeks to keep things going in the correct direction.
The California variant remains another worry and it is dubbed B1427/B1429. Humorously, the scientists seem to be making up the nomenclature as they go along. Each variant name has some kind of twist. For the California Flu, one day it feels like a B1427 kind of day but the next day feels more like B1429. Joking aside, of course there are scientific methods and reasons for naming the strains and variants.
Since the articles are written for the broadest
international audience, and the COVID-19 pandemic is explained in simple terms,
the words strain and variant, and even mutant or mutation for that matter, are
all lumped together. The eggheads will have a conniption over such disrespect
for the rules and heritage of their honored profession, but they will get over
it.
Keystone apologizes for bastardizing any nomenclature but
uses the words strain and variant interchangeably for ease of readability.
Ditto the terms coronavirus, COVID-19, covid, pandemic, virus, China Flu, China
Virus, Wuhan Flu, Wuhan Virus and D614G (the main original strain) are all used
interchangeably.
The most troubling mutation in California is the L452R subset
which can attach itself to cells easier. San Francisco has the most B1427/B1429
variant cases. The bay area should delay the colorful parties for a couple
weeks until the new variant can be better identified, understood and
controlled. The US needs to ramp-up genomic testing but like anything, the task
needs funding and skilled staff which is in short supply in the healthcare
fields these days. Medical folks are exhausted.
CDC Director Doc Walensky remains concerned about the “potential
shift” in the data. She says the daily cases are leveling off but remain at an
elevated level (which is correct see the charts above). US states are rolling
back restrictions on schools and restaurants at a quick pace. Once the snowball
begins rolling downhill, pandemic-fatigued citizens are throwing caution to the
wind. The US charts are highlighted below and the jury remains out if the US is
in the clear. On Friday, 3/5/21, the story will be told by the daily new cases
data.
Walensky warns that “this is not the time to relax. We have
the ability to stop a potential fourth surge of cases in this country.” Doc
says the new “variants are a very real threat to our people and progress.”
Walensky tells America to not “lose the hard-earned ground we have gained.”
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple approach to predicting when the
active cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower which represents
the maximum stress on the medical system and healthcare workers followed by better
days ahead.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Japan and South Korea are in this group. Also New
Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you
identify the trend of the data.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
For the US daily new cases chart above, the peak in new
cases is easily seen as 1/8/21 with 308K cases (red circle). Adding 28 days
since the US is a Western nation, is a forecast of 2/5/21 for the peak in the
US active cases curve and the peak occurs 1/31/21. The 7-day MA on the daily
new cases chart is sloping dead flat sideways so the jury remains out as to the
path forward. With cases below the 7-day MA line, that will pull the 7-day MA
lower which is great, however, we are coming off the weekend’s lighter data.
The series of lower lows and lower highs is great but that ends with the start
of the sideways move. The chart needs to resume the lower highs and lower lows pattern
even at a long drawn-out pace.
If you squint and study the US daily new cases over the last
month, you see the pattern where the highest data days occur on Fridays. This
has been the pattern throughout the pandemic but during the surges it can
become jumbled. Any spike in daily new cases creates fear and worry that it is
the beginning of a ramp higher in active cases and a dreaded fourth wave.
Nobody wants that.
A move higher in daily cases portends a higher active cases
curve which is disastrous since it takes a few weeks to roll that chart over.
The high spikes in the US daily new cases over the last month occur on 2/5,
2/12, 2/19 and 2/26/21; all Friday’s. It likely has to do with the way the data
is reported or compiled. Even Keystone’s dim-bulb mind can see that this
Friday, 3/5/21 is the next in the pattern. That’s it.
Friday, 3/5/21, is the big day. If the daily new cases can
remain tame, below the 7-day MA, when the number is released, America will be
in good shape and the good work is holding despite the variant trouble.
However, if the Friday daily new cases data is a spike higher, we’re screwed.
Typically, Worldometer will release the critical Friday data in the early
morning hours of Saturday 3/6/21.
If the US daily new cases data remains below the 7-day MA
through Saturday, America is on its way to victory. You will see the US active
cases start to drop dramatically and hospital workers will notice a huge
difference in patient load in the days ahead. If the Friday daily cases spike
and touch the 7-day MA or move above this critical moving average, however,
that is not good. After that, watch the data for several more days since if the
daily new cases remain above the 7-day MA, the US is likely starting the fourth
wave and trouble is beginning. Do you get the idea that Friday’s daily new
cases data is important?
You can see in the chart with the orange lines that the
current leveling off of daily new cases still exceeds the levels after the
peaks of the first and second waves and the only cases that are higher are
during the peak of the second wave. If another confirmation point is received
on Friday, 3/12/21, in 10 days, the timing of the next Article 36, these peak
data days of 3/5 and 3/12 are going to likely tell the story for the rest of
the year. The fate of the US depends on the daily cases in the coming days.
We ae in March already as 2021 flies along. Keystone will
monitor the result from 3/5/21 and post the verdict in the updates below. Even
before Friday, if one of the days this week spike higher, the US will take a
turn for the worse. For now, all is calm, all is bright. Our Destiny awaits on
Saturday morning. Today is 56,890 daily new cases above the prior day, but
still below the 7-day mA.
The US daily new cases are key. Keep watching the chart each
day into the big crescendo on Saturday morning when Friday’s data is posted.
You wonder how America would handle a fourth wave especially with spring, and
love, in the air right now, and states reopening schools and restaurants. This
is either going to end very, very well, or very, very badly. Men will crawl
through a bed of covid-covered nails for the love of a beautiful woman. No
wonder it is difficult to eradicate viruses.
For the US active cases chart above, the peak on 1/31/21 is
holding and the chart is rolling-over to the downside to form the bell shape. Each
day is another tiptoe through the covid minefield. The good news from the last
couple articles continues, sort of. The US active cases curve has rolled over
to start to form the bell shape but needs to drop more to prove itself.
If the US active cases curve curls upwards that will be a
dagger through Uncle Sam’s heart. For now, all is right with the world. This is
reminiscent of the September/October 2020 period hoping and wishing that the
flat active cases curve would curl lower instead it resolved upwards. All hope
was then lost, until now, five months later. You know what they say. Hold out
your hands palms up. “Wish in one hand, sh*t in the other, watch and see which
one, fills up faster.” The president promises enough vaccine to vaccinate all
US citizens by the end of May but the question is how many will roll up their
sleeves?
Easter is 4/4/21 which will be a party weekend but Americans
should be well-behaved until then. Springtime blooms in 3 weeks so the warmer
weather will help battle coronavirus easier.
For the US daily new deaths chart above, the trend is sideways.
1,989 Americans die from COVID-19 today, call it 2K, and this remains at levels
above all of the second wave and at the peak levels of the first wave (blue
line). The daily new deaths drop in a pattern of lower lows and lower highs
which is excellent, but now level off. The brown 7-day MA is heading sideways
but that needs to keep dropping lower. From the excellent news department, US
nursing home deaths are down big. This is positive news that will help to turn
the tide on COVID-19.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) does
a great job with the mortality data and charts. However, no one has an appetite
when death is on the menu. The IHME is at 513K American deaths right now and predicts
546K deaths by 4/1/21. The death projections
have come down in recent weeks which is a good thing although any one death is
sad and depressing for that family.
Hopefully, America can keep pounding that death chart until
it is flat as a pancake (no more deaths). IHME has lowered its estimates to no
longer predict that COVID-19 deaths will exceed the Spanish Flu of 1918 when 675K
Americans died. Some Americans wore masks from 1918 to 1920 during the Spanish
Flu which is interesting. Everyone back then likely cursed the mouth diapers
like now.
The US coronavirus hospitalizations data continues improving
to 59,882. The peak hospitalizations are 132,474 on 1/6/21 a 55% reduction in
only 5 weeks. For waves 1 and 2, the two peaks in hospitalizations were at 60K
and the two dips were at 30K. The United States is down to 60K now which is
great. Sub 60K would be fantastic since it would be less hospitalizations than
the prior peaks. If hospitalizations drop below 30K, confetti can be thrown as
the champagne is poured.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world over 29.3 million followed by India (11.1 million), Brazil (10.6),
Russia (4.3), UK (4.2), France (3.8), Spain (3.2), Italy (3.0), Turkey (2.7),
Germany (2.5), Colombia (2.3), Argentina (2.1), Mexico (2.1), Poland (1.7),
Iran (1.6), South Africa (1.5), Ukraine (1.4), Peru (1.3), Indonesia (1.3),
Czechia (1.3), Netherlands (1.1), Canada (871K), Chile (833K), Romania (808K), Portugal
(806K), Israel (785K), Belgium (772K), Iraq (704K), Sweden (669K), Pakistan (583K),
Philippines (580K), Switzerland (559K) and Bangladesh (547K).
France, Italy and Czechia’s total cases increased at a
faster rate than the other nations. That is not good and reinforces the idea
that central and western Europe is in serious covid trouble right now. Czechia
may jump over Peru and Indonesia over the next week.
If the current pace continues, Canada will cross the 1
million total case number and become number 22 in the infamous club in about 33
days, say the week of 4/4/21. Chile and Romania jumped over Portugal into a
worse position higher on the list. Israel jumps over Belgium. That’s weird.
Israel is supposed to be the poster boy for vaccinations but its total cases
jump higher faster than Belgium’s over the last week. 33 nations are over
500,000 total coronavirus cases. That is a lot of countries.
The herd immunity math is straight forward and provided in the
prior articles. About 240 million Americans need vaccinated to reach herd
immunity. The vaccinations need to occur by Labor Day, 9/6/21, since the new
flu and covid season will begin for the Fall which may bring new challenges and
variants. The 9/6/21 drop-dead date is 188 days away.
The Bloomberg vaccine tracker reports 245 million vaccine
doses administered around the world. In the US, 77 million doses are
administered for a 1.8 million doses per day vaccination rate a nice
improvement over the 1.5 rate 10 days ago. The Texas power outage and winter
weather were a setback. About two-thirds of the doses are the first shot and
one-third the second shot so about 26 million Americans have been vaccinated
with both shots. 77 million doses, in a perfect world, with everything
hunky-dory, everyone receiving 2 doses, would represent 38 million people
vaccinated.
The US needs to vaccinate 240 million people and taking away
26 is another 210 million people remaining, or 420 million doses. President
Biden said 600 million total doses would be available by July. The J&J
vaccine will take care of 4 million people with 4 million doses right away and
another 100 million doses will be coming over the next couple months.
If 420 million doses need administered within 188 days, this
is a 2.2 million doses per day vaccination rate to finish by Labor Day. This
rate goal increases marginally higher each day that it is not achieved. The
J&J vaccine will help but time keeps ticking along and Labor Day is now
only 6 months away.
At the 1.8 million dose per day rate, the 210 million
remaining people to be vaccinated would be finished in 233 days, or 10/21/21; October!
This is too late for herd immunity before the new Fall flu and covid season. If
J&J can crank out the vaccine, this date can keep being pulled forward.
Merck is ready to help J&J. The J&J vaccine is key because it is a
one-shot deal and many folks sitting on the fence about taking the vaccine do
not want the new fancy mRNA technology but are open to non-mRNA vaccines.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, and more data and information become available, to push
the story forward.
This is Article 35 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides
real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists,
market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials,
news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19
pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally. This thirty-fifth article
is published on Tuesday, 3/2/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair. There is no time to think only to keep
catching your breath as the events fly by.
All 35 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog
and will be pulled together into a large book in the future titled Coronavirus
Chronology. The COVID-19 pandemic information has been recorded, in detail,
every day over the last year, in real-time when the raw emotion is captured, and
it would be stupid to stop this historic documentation now. The last few
articles are linked here if you want to come up to speed with the pandemic saga
over the last month.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a few days. The COVIDTracking Project is another excellent source of information and data available
for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail.
The nations on the list below are experiencing real-time
outbreaks (based on the data which nations may or may not be reporting
truthfully) and are the worst global hotspots. Sadly, the list has greatly
expanded over the last week or two. Many nations are now beginning new waves or
they are underway for a couple weeks. It is disappointing. After highlighting
the nations in the worst coronavirus trouble below, large broader regions can
be identified as the worst global hotspots.
The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks in active cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of
the active cases curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The
pandemic is not under control until the active cases curve flattens and rolls
over forming the bell shape. The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom
of the list the hardest since they are reporting the largest spikes in daily
new cases occurring in real-time.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. South Korea and Japan are
back in good graces after defeating the latest virus waves which proved
difficult. Tokyo is remaining strict since the upcoming Olympics are a major
worry. The data looks good for Japan right now but they are walking on covid
eggshells.
Perhaps the end of the pandemic occurs when the virus
decides to dissipate and move on or die on its own terms. Many past viruses
linger for about 18 months and then fade away. The COVID-19 saga is ongoing for
14 months although cases may have been occurring in the United States in
November 2019 which is 17 months ago.
We do not care how COVID-19 is eradicated, right? Be it herd
immunity, or it goes away on its own, or vaccinations, or all of the above, we
would just like to be rid of Uncle Covid, the unwelcome houseguest, er
squatter, that refuses to leave.
Egypt (Second Wave) (data is
suspect perhaps underreporting daily new cases)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
2/4/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases remain steady and robust)
3/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
2/18/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 8/16/20 and 2/18/21)
3/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart is flattening)
2/20/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever for third wave)
3/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
2/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
2/24/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases remain steady and robust)
3/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
2/24/21 New Case Peak Date
3/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fifth wave and pandemic)
3/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
3/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fourth wave)
3/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fourth wave)
3/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of second wave)
3/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(based on 11 days)
2/27/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fourth wave)
3/10/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
2/27/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fourth wave)
3/10/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
2/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
2/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fourth wave)
3/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
2/28/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
2/28/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fifth wave)
3/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of fourth wave)
3/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/1/21 New Case Peak Date
3/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/1/21 New Case Peak Date
3/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/1/21 New Case Peak Date
3/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/1/21 New Case Peak Date
3/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/2/21 New Case Peak Date
3/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/2/21 New Case Peak Date
3/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/2/21 New Case Peak Date
3/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Sadly, Brazil reports 1,726 deaths from coronavirus on 3/2/21 the deadliest day of the pandemic as shown in the chart above. The Brazil strain P1 (B11248) is wreaking havoc and people that were previously infected are becoming sick again. The vaccines may not be as effective against P1.
Tragically,
Brazil’s hospitals are past the breaking point. Oxygen supplies are in short supply so patients gasp for breath until the end. There is not enough healthcare staff to handle the situation. A week ago there was one doctor handling over 20 patients but now it is overwhelming and a matter of simply trying to help as best you can. God is deciding who lives and
dies in Brazil today and for the days ahead.
Greece’s daily new cases
spike to the highest in four months and its active cases curve is ramping
sharply higher. Greece may not even realize as yet that covid is smacking them
hard. Folks, delay those toga parties. It is no laughing matter, however,
Greece is in serious COVID-19 trouble.
Kuwait reports the highest
daily new cases ever today! Kuwait is in serious trouble. Palestine sees a big
increase in daily new cases and its active cases curve is going vertical.
Ireland’s active cases curve
continues higher so the UK needs to watch out for their neighbors that may
reinfect the UK. The Irish must be sneaking out to those pubs each evening and
kissing pretty lassies but perhaps they are smooching with COVID-19. Oh well,
some will say it is worth it, but Ireland needs to put the mug down and refocus
efforts to get a handle on covid.
France remains stuck in the
covid quagmire with the third wave. The daily new cases remain robust driving
the active cases chart higher and higher as shown above. The 2/24/21 spike high
in daily new cases is the highest in 4 months. Adding 28 days as per the
Keystone Model is 3/24/21 for the projected peak and flattening of the active
cases curve and subsequent rollover to form the bell shape. The chart sown above
is a disaster. There are more covid cases ongoing in France now than at any
other time in the pandemic. The French cannot stop enjoying wine, baguette,
cigarettes and orgies, all of which are spreading coronavirus. You only live
once so it is difficult to tell them to stop.
President Macron backpedals
from his January comment that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is
“quasi-effective,” words he probably regrets, and now opens the door to wider
use of the vaccine including in elderly folks. People need to cut each other a
break; everyone is strung-out on this pandemic. The vaccine program will help
Europe but the next 2 to 4 weeks may prove very difficult.
German Chancellor Merkel
chimes in speaking positively about the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. Perhaps Europe
is realizing that beggars can’t be choosers. If you grow up dirt poor, you
would understand such matters. Europe needs to embrace the vaccine, encourage
people to take it, educate them, and jab everyone they can as fast as they can.
Italy begins a third wave
which is terrible news. Italy’s daily new cases chart is shown above with the
new cases ramping higher. Good luck to everyone. Italy will welcome spring but
receive a covid punch to the face. The signs of a new outbreak were evident 10
days ago and clearly the active cases curve is moving higher now. Italy
tightens its restrictions on the public that is pandemic-fatigued. Central and
western Europe does not look good. Hungary is included in that group with deaths increasing at an alarming rate.
Germany is a hair away from
starting a third wave. Germany’s active cases curve is dead flat with daily new
cases moving sideways at an elevated level. Chancellor Merkel has been warning
the country to remain vigilant and over the next few days we will see Germany’s
destiny. The active cases curve is going to break up or down and that dictates
if a third wave begins, or not. Germany wants to forge ahead with relaxing
restrictions. The natives are getting restless.
Czechia is in bad shape and
have been disproportionally battered by COVID-19 over the last year, like Ukraine.
Sweden deaths spike higher to 37 deaths today which must be watched closely.
Mexico’s active cases curve
is about to stop flattening and instead move higher. This will be a terrible
development. Ditto Canada in the same shape as Mexico. The days ahead are
important and will predict the pandemic path remaining this year. The news was
good over the last three weeks but the data and charts are displaying a soggier
picture.
India needs to redouble its
efforts as a new wave begins. Try to nip it in the bud, India! Malaysia and
Indonesia remain active covid infection zones but they have improved. Philippines
is showing a big spike in daily new cases so the active cases curve bears
watching.
Africa never receives the attention it deserves. There are two outbreak situations that bear watching. First, the western coast and second, the east coast. On the west, the following nations are concerning. Guinea, Mali, Togo, Benin, Gabon, Cameroon and Chad are the eastern Africa hotspots. The infections likely entered via Guinea and ran up into Mali. Also from Togo and Benin, side by side, the population likely travels north into Mali.
Cameroon and Gabon are on the coast and the infections likely traveled up through Cameroon into Chad. Mali and Chad are lagging the other nations with infections but ramping-up now which verifies that the illness is traveling northward from the African coast into Mali and Chad.
On the other side of the African continent, the concern is Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Kenya and Uganda which is trying to peak out and improve. South Sudan may be the worst current African nation for COVID-19. Hopefully, the folks are receiving help. People never forget you when you help them in their time of need. It appears that the virus outbreak on the east side of Africa is a few days behind the outbreak on the west side. It is easy to conclude that they are two different outbreaks one occurring from the west moving east and north and the other from the east moving inland.
Botswana is also a hotspot but it sits all by its lonesome in southern Africa right above South Africa. The outbreak in South Africa, with the new and worrisome B1351 variant, has moved north to Botswana. South Africa is on the mend with its active cases curve forming the bell shape and dropping drastically. South Africa has paid the price, however, with over 50K souls dead from covid the 14th country on the total death count list. The world can probably call it the Botswana B1351 now instead of the South Africa strain.
The African nations most impacted by coronavirus are on the coasts. Isn't that interesting? Guinea, Togo, Benlin, Cameroon, Gabon, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia is close enough. When Spain and Portugal went through their latest covid Hell a month and more ago, the virus seemed to enter the region via the west coast and move eastward now attacking France, Italy, Belgium, probably Germany, Denmark, Poland, Croatia, Hungary, etc...
In the United States one year ago, COVID-19 first infected American shores in Washington state on the west coast. New York was a coronavirus Hellhole last year another city on the coast although it is a major airline hub as well. This is interesting stuff. The UK was smacked hard with its B117 namesake and being an island nation, there had to be lots of ships and port activity going on when the virus accelerated.
Can the ocean-going vessels and ships be playing a major role in the transmission of COVID-19? Cruise lines have been sidelined for a while and the pandemic has not missed a beat, spreading everywhere, so is human transmission occurring that way or another way? What is the port activity in Guinea, Togo, Benin, Cameroon and Gabon? Do they ship animals? If so, how? What animals from where? What about container ships? Washington state, USA, sees container ships out the wazoo. Can the virus remain active on something that involves ship transportation and that is the main transmission mechanism as products and people interact with the ports and docks?
Perhaps the smart epidemiologists, scientists, doctors, nurses and healthcare practitioners may want to team up with logistics people, and maybe an anthropologist, and commodities trader, to figure out how the pandemic spreads via ships and ports. Does the virus live on the cardboard or other packaging materials? The plastic film wrapping? Is that capable of maintaining the virus for hours or days? Is the virus in the garbage and waste from the ship? It would be wise to find out where all the shipments came from over the last month into those African ports. That may trace back to an area where the virus was transmitted from or provide other interesting insight into the ongoing mysteries of coronavirus.
Ethiopia is placed in the list above but Guinea, Benin, Togo, Cameroon, Gabon, Botswana, Kenya, Somalia and South Sudan may be placed on the list next time. These nations face a difficult month ahead. South Sudan is in bad shape right now as per the charts. The world will never be free of the pandemic until the entire globe defeats the virus together. All nations need to help our brothers and sisters in Africa and any location on earth.
Dr Hotez is voicing concern over the outbreaks in Africa. Hotez is concerned about Mozambique but looking at the latest data and the active cases chart, it has peaked on 2/21/21 and rolled-over which is great news. Mozambique is now heading in the right direction.
Many nations are enjoying
active cases curves moving lower including Russia, UK, Spain, Portugal, South
Africa, Pakistan, Switzerland, Morocco, UAE, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Panama,
Malaysia, Belarus, Nepal, Ecuador, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Tunisia,
Kazakhstan, Costa Rica, Lithuania, Slovenia, Guatemala and Nigeria. These
nations are hanging in there but as can be seen many have already paid a dear
price during the pandemic such as Russia and the UK.
Russia is hit with the B5N8
bird flu. Seven farm workers are sick although asymptomatic. There is no
human-to-human transmission as yet. The poultry flock was culled. WHO says risk
of human-to-human transmission is low.
Nations that are likely
sliding down the covid rabbit hole are Croatia, Azerbaijan, Denmark,
Bangladesh, Armenia, Qatar, Oman, Israel, Jamaica and El Salvador so these
nations may appear on the bad list above in the next article. Overall, the news
is not as good as thought after reviewing the world.
Yes, Israel, the poster
child for a great vaccination program, is mentioned in that group. Daily new
cases spike to the highest level in a week so maybe Israel needs to speed-up
those vaccinations even faster. Israel is perhaps the test case for herd
immunity. Keep an eye on it. With coronavirus, you never know what is around
the next corner.
Obviously, from the list above,
there is a serious outbreak across central and eastern Europe that will worsen.
The Middle East is another hot zone. Also, Central America. The disturbing
aspect about the data and charts is how widespread the new outbreaks are around
the world. Brazil, India, these are huge countries. The daily new cases are
beginning to move higher in many different nations scattered around the world.
If coronavirus expands in all these locations, it will be a disaster.
The jury is out as to which
way the United States will break. Perhaps it is the variants and mutations
popping up in different places wreaking havoc? You can see that some of these
outbreaks can potentially get out of control. The coming days and few weeks
will likely tell us a lot about the future course of the pandemic for the months
ahead into next year.
The United States was taken
off the bad world list above since its active cases curve is rolling-over to
the downside. The worst covid nations above are clearly in the Middle East,
central and eastern Europe and central America.
Focusing on the US, the troubled states are highlighted
below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max
strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states below have
failed to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully
flattened the curve only to suffer a new wave higher again.
The pandemic has greatly improved over the last month but
the joy is leveling off. The vaccination program is helping. Folks following
masking and social distancing guidelines are also helping. Biden asked
Americans to wear a mask for the first 100 days of his presidency (which ends 5/1/21). Let’s hope the variants do not crush the hope and optimism.
Oregon (Third Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases beginning to rise again)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/21 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (chart continues higher)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/5/20 and 1/2/21)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 8/31/20, 9/2/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4/20 and 1/9/21)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve peaks 2/19/21
and is flattening and rolling over keep your fingers crossed)
South Carolina (Third Wave) (data
is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 12/27/20 and 1/16/21)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/17/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Note that nearly all 15 states above have the notation about the suspect data. The states have active cases curves that are going higher and higher, and higher. At the same time, they report daily new cases dropping lower and lower to small amounts. This is wrong. It is impossible. The active cases are not wrong since the filled hospitals and clinics verify that situation. Therefore, the daily case numbers reported are fudged lower. It is not surprising since most things are corrupt these days.
The other 35 US states followed along the expected path as
per the Keystone Model but the states above are not. Six are republican states
and 9 are democrat states. Three states do not have mandates but the other 12 do. It appears that fudging data is an equal opportunity
endeavor. Probably in the future, the states
above will revise data and the daily case numbers will be bumped higher across
the board. Someone will exclaim, “Heavens to Betsy, I do declare, look at all
those daily cases under the desk there, they must have fallen out of the
envelope, we will have to fix the data, I sure am glad we caught the error.”
California’s active cases curve peaks on 1/24/21 so it has
been moving flat to lower for the last 5 weeks. The active cases curve needs to
drop and form the bell shape, otherwise, the Golden State remains in trouble.
The new California variant B1427/B1429 is wreaking havoc mainly in the San
Francisco area but spreading throughout the state. The US must ramp-up its
genetic sequence testing.
New York and California can claim victory moving forward if
the active cases curves drop from here. Of course, it will be disaster if any
active cases curve curls upward. New York remains on the list, for now.
Florida is in the same boat as New York and California
having topped out its active cases curve on 2/6/21. The Sunshine State needs to
keep pushing the active cases curve lower. Republican Governor Desantis brags
that Florida has been relatively open the last few months and things are going
along swimmingly. Dude, look at your own data. The highest daily new cases
occurred in early January and the active cases did not peak until 3 weeks ago!
That is horrible.
Florida daily cases are double what they were, and more,
compared to last summer when there was a lull. Florida is home to retirees that
are scared of covid so many of the elderly are simply sitting inside watching
television for the last year. DeSantis would be better served to study the
data, or at least look at the charts and ramp-up the genetic sequencing of the
variants. Florida deaths remain over 140 per day or more which is the same
consistently bad pace during the prior wave and this current wave. Maybe a
little more working and a little less talking would be helpful, DeSantis.
New Jersey is also in the California, New York and Florida
boat. All four states show active cases curves flattening and rolling over but
the sharp drop for the bell curve shape has not yet occurred so the jury
remains out. Watch the daily new case numbers especially Friday’s data.
There are 15 states on the bad list so 35 states are moving
in the right direction. The US data is remaining optimistic over the last 3
weeks and not yet turning sour like Europe and the world in general. America’s
story will be told this week. The daily new cases are key especially the Friday
daily new cases data for the US. That is the number to watch which will be
known early Saturday morning.
The states not listed are in better shape with their active
cases curve rolling over and starting lower. Ohio is reopening schools and
restaurants. Michigan must be watched as daily new cases rise. Iowa is a bit of
a jumbled mess over the last month. Connecticut is another state to keep an eye
on as its daily new cases may be rising.
Idaho’s active cases curve stops moving lower and flattens.
This is not good. The daily cases are flat so watch to see if Idaho experiences
an outbreak over the next week or two. The Washington, DC, active cases chart
is terrible moving higher and at its highs for the pandemic. For gosh sakes,
walk across the street from the Whitehouse and give those folks some help.
Bombshell news occurs. Texas and Mississippi plan to roll
back all the coronavirus restrictions and reopen the states. Oh my. Louisiana
wants in on the action as well. It sounds like people are throwing all caution
to the wind and running outside in their birthday suits to embrace a brave new
world. Perhaps they want to live in the world they want it to be rather than
realistically facing the world it its?
Republican Texas Governor Abbott proclaims, via tweet; “I
just announced Texas is OPEN 100%. EVERYTHING. I also ended the statewide mask
mandate.” Wow. This is huge news. The media goes wild. Republicans generally
cheer Abbott while democrats denounce his selfish actions. Abbott tells
everyone to look at Florida’s success with reopening schools and businesses.
Yes, take a look at it explained in detail above. Maybe he should look at
Florida before he touts it.
Abbott’s another guy talking and not looking at data or
charts. If it works out, great, if not, Abbott will have blood dripping from
his hands until the day he dies. 275 Texans die from covid today remaining at
the highest levels of the second wave and current third wave. Texas barbeque takes
priority over the dead coronavirus bodies lying in the morgue and in the
temporary refrigeration trucks in the parking lot next to the dumpster.
7% of Texans are vaccinated with 2 shots while 13% are
vaccinated with one shot which only serves as a herd immunity loin cloth. The
Texas active cases chart formed the bell shape and drops lower so this is
excellent news, however, the daily new cases have taken on a slightly elevated
posture again. Abbott is rolling the dice on the Texas craps table, baby, he
blows on the dice with a crazed look in his eye, throws them against the
backboard and yells, “Papa needs a new pair of shoes, come on, baby.”
Pandemic-fatigue is creating restless natives.
Republican Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves follows the
Texas lead and decrees, “Today, I signed what I expect will be one of my last
executive orders regarding COVID-19. Our hospitalizations have plummeted, and
our case numbers have fallen dramatically as well. In fact, our case numbers
have fallen to the point where no county meets the original criteria for a mask
mandate.”
The 7-day MA for daily new cases is moving higher again not
lower. Hopefully, Reeves’ gambling will pay off, if not, he will have blood
dripping from his hands until the day he dies. Mississippi covid deaths spike
to 43 today the highest number in 3 weeks.
Louisiana is also loosening restrictions. Upon hearing about
the reopening of three of the southern states, democrat California Governor
Newsom has a case of the vapors and opines in a tweet, “Absolutely reckless!” Newsom
states his two cents to divert attention away from his recall problem.
Californians are trying to remove him from office.
The CDC is urging Texas and the other states to reconsider
and instead keep the restrictions in place. CDC Director Walensky says, “Now is
not the time” to lift the coronavirus restrictions. She does not want America
to consider 70K daily new cases and 2K deaths per day to be acceptable. Walensky
remains worried about a potential fourth wave.
The nursing home scandal engulfing democrat New York
Governor Cuomo continues. At the same time, three women accuse the governor of
sexual harassment. He’s toast. Even democrats are now calling for his ousting. Cuomo
can join his bro on CNN and do a tag-team rendition of the news each evening.
They can call the show, “Whachu talkin’ ‘bout you talkin’ to me?” (in a New
York accent)
The back to school battle rages on. California is controlled
by the teacher’s union, as is President Biden, so many parents are up in arms
over the deteriorating education of the young people. The teachers are back to
work in many states but the major cities are sticking points. Some states are
planning to vaccinate teachers to ease their minds and help them transition
back to the school which is a great idea.
Teachers and grocery store workers should be on the priority
list for vaccines. The poor grocery store employees are the ones in contact
with the most people daily and yet officials do not treat them with the respect
they deserve. Biden wants all K (kindergarten) through 12 educators to be back
in the schools by the end of this month but in Sleepy Joe’s hazy definitions,
is one day per week considered back?
For proper childhood psychological development, kids must read a face! Children process information, that forms their personality and helps with language development, by reading facial expressions. Hopefully, the mask stuff will end soon. Children need to see faces to grow up properly so virus or not, in a few weeks, this important concept will have to be addressed by society. The need for children and teenagers to see faces during their development probably outweighs the worries of contracting covid.
Schools are key as suicides remain at elevated levels.
People are isolated, lonely and negative thoughts run away in their heads.
Talking to people and social interaction is what cures those ills. Japan has
appointed a “Loneliness Minister” after suicides increase for the first time in
over a decade. The UK appointed a loneliness minister a month ago. The Japanese
women are impacted by isolation more than men. “Everybody’s lonely,” is whatMargo Price sings in Letting Me Down.
If you are ever down in the dumps, always wait until
tomorrow, because it will be better. There are plenty of hotline numbers
available including the national line at 800-273-8255. Telephone books also
have information and telephone numbers available. There are lots of people
willing to help so do not give up. Ask around if you cannot find help. The
folks at the local thrift store can help put you in contact with people that
can help. You will feel better over time. You are going through what everyone
goes through from time to time.
The stage is set. The big day is Friday, 3/5/21. The US
daily new cases data is expected to spike so it is a question whether it will
spike above the 7-day MA shown above in the chart, or not. The outcome, which
will be known early Saturday morning after the data and charts are updated,
will dictate whether Uncle Sam is drinking happy booze and throwing confetti,
or, drinking hemlock tea, a la Socrates (if the daily new cases are a large
spike higher).
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 3/3/21: US COVID-19 DEATHS EXCEED 530K. 530,980 American souls perish from the China Virus. What a terrible tragedy that lingers on day after day. There you go. Now 531,386 deaths from covid. The counter will not stop. That is a lot of loved ones.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 3/3/21: The Texas and Mississippi decisions to defy CDC guidelines and fully open their economies is dominating the news this evening. Texas is still recovering from the winter storm debacle and now Governor Abbott is telling everyone to shun the lockdown and have at it. Abbott did not consult with the Texas chief medical officer. Several Texas officials could smell what was coming and sent letters to Abbott to preemptively stop the reopening. Several mayors in the major Texas cities are upset because they will be dealing first hand with a mess if lots of people become sick. President Biden is unhappy with Texas and Mississippi proclaiming, "The last thing we need is Neanderthal thinking." Fauci says it is ill-advised and risky to end the Texas and Mississippi mask mandates. Texas will reopen 3/10/21, next Wednesday, but people are already running from their homes, half-dressed, frolicking in freedom, unwilling to wait another week. Abbott opens the floodgates. Everyone wants this to work out well but in the pit of your stomach you realize it probably will not. Texas will serve as a test case going forward. In 2 or 3 weeks, we will know if Abbott will be a hero, or zero.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/4/21, at 3:00 AM EST: CDC Director Walensky is disheartened about Texas reopening and shunning masks and opines, "Now is not the time to stop wearing a mask," and "the next three months are pivotal." 35 US states have ongoing mask mandates but this number is slipping away every few days. The right-leaning media is touting a story about 108 illegal immigrants entering the US since January that tested positive for COVID-19. These infected folks may be freely circulating in Texas and elsewhere. The immigration issue is complex. The immigrants are serious and following mask rules and other guidelines so give them a chance. Country music singer/songwriter Dolly Parton helps the cause by receiving a vaccine and in her wonderful voice changes the lyrics to her internationally famous song "Jolene" to "Vaccine." Vaccine naysayers say the lyrics should sing, "Saline, saline, saline, sa-linnnneeee (some celebrities, doctors and politicians that are given vaccines publicly to promote the program may be simply receiving a shot of harmless saline solution)." This is the way society is nowadays; few trust what is going on anymore. Europe begins a testing program assessing the efficacy of Russia's Sputnik V vaccine.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/4/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Oh-no. That's not good. Italy reports 20,884 daily new cases for 3/3/21 the highest number since 1/1/21 the first day of the year, two months ago. COVID-19 is about to kick the boot-shaped nation. Germany reports 10,885 daily new cases the highest since 2/4/21 a month ago. Chancellor Merkel spends every night sleepless. Oh-no, jeez. Damn. Poland's daily new cases leap higher to 15,701 cases. These nations are in the central and eastern European region that is now seeing a dramatic ramp-up in infections. All of these countries better redouble their efforts pronto and make their citizens aware of the increasing infection rate. Italy and Germany needs to tell the public to keep social interaction to a minimum. Good luck with that. Pandemic fatigue is rampant. The natives are restless. The nations want to start easing restrictions which will make it all that much worse as the infection news worsens. Denmark reports elevated cases the second highest number in the last couple months. Another one. Croatia. Highest cases since January. Oh Dear Lord! Greece daily new cases spike wildly higher to 2,697 cases on 3/3/21. There are only five cases higher in the history of its pandemic and they were back in November. The Greeks better stay home instead of enjoying toga parties with compacted slow-moving conga lines. You are watching the central and eastern European hotspot develop, form, and accelerate right before your eyes in real-time. The virus infected Spain and Portugal (but they are okay now with their active cases curve far lower) and moves west to east taking down France and now Italy, and Belgium, Denmark, Poland, Croatia and Greece. There are troubles across the pond that will linger if the active cases curves continue moving higher since they need several weeks to flatten and roll-over to form the bell shape.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/4/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Oh, dread. Hungary's daily new cases remain elevated and the deaths jump to 136 the deadliest day since early December. Hungary implements additional pandemic restrictions to mitigate the big increase in deaths. Central and eastern Europe, and western Asia, and the Middle East, are in for a month or more of lousy times. Damn. The US daily new cases move higher for three consecutive days to 66,879 cases which is the wrong direction. Rats. The US daily cases 7-day MA (the moving average smoothing mechanism that helps identify the trend) is at 65,322. Sadly, the 67K daily new cases moves above the 65K trend line. This is not good. It tells you the trend may be changing from cases moving down to the cases moving up again (bad). We want the cases to keep dropping and remain below the 7-day MA. Stay vigilant America! This is make or break time! Everyone needs to pull together and row in the same direction! How can you shout these calls to action to rally the troops when there are folks in Texas and Mississippi throwing all caution to the wind? Texans are barbequing, partying, boozing, singing and dancing, while calling the rest of the United States sucka's. 2,350 Americans die from coronavirus yesterday the highest in almost a week well above a lofty 2K per day death pace. In Dallas, Tex Ritter shrugs off the data and takes another bite of a barbeque chicken leg as he welcomes the neighbors over for party time. Good luck America.
Note Added Thursday at Lunchtime, 3/4/21, at 12:00 PM EST (noon): Vaccine nationalism raises its ugly face. Europeans are battering their governments and the EU concerning the slow rollout of the vaccine program. Europe is stumbling. Today, Italy blocks a shipment of AstraZeneca vaccine that was headed for Australia. This is not good. Italy's new PM and European poster boy Mario Draghi is puffing his chest out and flexing his muscles. Nationalism and protectionism is never a good idea; it led to the decade-long Great Depression in the United States in the 1930's. Everyone pulls inward and starts protecting themselves but in so doing they hurt other country's, slitting their throat to benefit yourself, well, they will do it too, and after a while everyone is laying in the street dead in a pool of blood. To paraphrase Ben Franklin, 'the European nations may end up hanging separately because they do not want to hang together'. This move by Italy is serious. Obviously, Australia, may retaliate, or, maybe not. The Aussie's may think the European elite are not worth the trouble and instead throw another steak on the barbie. Europe is in serious trouble right now with the outbreak increasing in the central and eastern parts of the continent and they are hobbling together a vaccination program. Draghi is a smart man and street-savvy to some extent, and knowing the dire situation may have been what caused him to halt the vaccine shipment. Italy should have called the Aussie's first but maybe they did. The vaccine nationalism news keeps on hitting the wires. Austria is teaming up with Israel though backdoor channels. This will create trouble with the European Union. European countries are starting to do their own thing due to the poor leadership from the EU. The united European front is crumbling. The most important thing the pandemic has lacked over the last year is leadership.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 3/4/21, at 1:00 PM EST: News reports say President Trump received the vaccine in January along with Melania. The two kept it a secret. The dude would not do it in public to encourage other Americans. What a guy. What a guy. Trump talks a big story but he is all hat and no cattle. He said he did not know if he would get the vaccine. He got it and kept it quiet. He said we will march to the Capital Building on the fateful 1/6/21 insurrection day but he jumped in the limo and rode back to the Whitehouse. He opines faux concern during the 1/6/21 riot saying everything that could be done is being done and yet reports say he was enjoying the riot and saw no reason to intervene. In fact, his first tweet during the riot encouraged more unrest. No one is surprised about his secret vaccination. King Donnie Trump steps to the front of the vaccine line and keeps it a secret. The orange-headed carnival barker continues the circus sideshow. Former President Trump just told Alice, the cleaning woman, that he won the election.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 3/4/21, at 2:00 PM EST: The vaccination rate hits 2.04 million doses per day. Woo-hoo! Eurreka! The fans go wild. The New York Times vaccination tracker says 110 million doses have been shipped in the US. 54 million jabs have occurred with 28 million people fully vaccinated (2-shots) and 26 million jabbed with one dose. All of you are familiar with the herd immunity math by now. 240 million people need vaccinated to reach herd immunity and this factors in people already sick and folks that may drop out after one dose. 4 million J&J vaccines will be stuck relatively quickly. For the 26 million, lets pretend that those were 2 doses so 13 million people would be fully vaccinated. Thus, to assess the current status towards herd immunity, add 13+28+4 = 45 million Americans are theoretically vaccinated. Taking 45 from the 240 million that need vaccinated is 195 million still remaining. At the dosage rate of 2.04 million per day, it will take 191 days to reach herd immunity (remember, 2 doses are needed so 195x2 = 390 million jabs). Oh my. Bingo. That is 9/10/21 which is basically Labor Day 9/6/21 the drop-dead date for herd immunity because the new flu and coronavirus season begin after Labor Day. In all the mathiness over the last month, this is the very first time that the math worked to achieve herd immunity in time for it to actually matter (before Labor Day). That is great news. In addition, J&J is going to be providing 100 million doses which can jab 100 million people so the date will only move more into the summer months. Finally, some light can be seen at the end of the tunnel and it is verified that it is not an oncoming train. The two potential flies in the ointment are variants that may wreak havoc and/or millions upon millions of Americans unwilling to roll up their sleeves. All you can do is handle one problem at a time.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 3/4/21, at 3:00 PM EST: Texas Governor Abbott may be getting cold feet about his decision to signal the all-clear to reopen the state including schools and restaurants. On television, he says he plans on lifting the mask mandate but he wants everyone to wear a mask. What? Abbott realizes he has opened a Pandora's Box. If he does not, he will. People are already partying and celebrating the end to masks. People and businesses are already clashing because customers do not want to wear a mask but some businesses want to maintain the mask rules. Abbott has created a living breathing mess. A republican colleague says Abbott is trying to be "macho." Political analysts say he is taking the Trumpian approach to masks since the majority of his constituents support that stance and he wants reelected next year. Politicians sway whichever way the wind blows.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 3/4/21: Alabama does not join Texas and Mississippi and instead announces plans to maintain its mandate until 4/9/21. Fauci continues slamming the lifting of mask mandates in Texas calling the move "inexplicable." Dr Gottlieb suggests maintaining the mask guidelines at a minimum if businesses want to reopen. Texas is an experiment over the next three weeks to see if Abbott's gamble at the covid craps table will be a winner or a loser.
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/5/21: The US monthly jobs report is a robust 400K increase in jobs mainly in the hospitality industries so airlines, hotels, restaurants and travel agencies must be reopening and hiring folks. Are the openings premature? People need to work. Many lives are in shambles. The upper middle class and wealthy elite, however, wonder what everyone is complaining about. In Europe, the Czech Republic is seeking medical aid and staffing help from Poland, Switzerland and Germany. Help them out folks. People never forget you when you help them in their time of need. Someday you may need their help. France President Macron is in agreement with Italy PM Draghi in halting the AstraZeneca vaccine shipment. Australia asks the EU and other European organizations to review the matter. Vaccine diplomacy was proceeding along swimmingly but now a couple folks pull out switchblades and the gangs are starting to separate. The troubling flag of Vaccine Nationalism is waved. The hopeful part is that the pharma companies are cranking out vaccine so over the coming months the earth will have vaccine up to their elbows. The nationalism will be tamped down in proportion to how fast vaccine is manufactured. Italy's daily cases jump to 23K another higher high and bad news. Deaths remain elevated. Italy total deaths from covid are at 99K and will cross 100K probably on Sunday or Monday. Germany daily new cases are 11,410 the highest since 2/4/21 and above the 7-day MA pulling the critical moving average higher which is bad news. France is in denial. Macron says he does not want another lockdown. That is fine and dandy, so you will get a constantly increasing active cases curve and bigger load on your hospitals and healthcare personnel. Half the French are enjoying wine, baguette and cigarettes, and even orgies, while the other half are not having any fun and have to take care of these party folks when they become sick with covid. Such is life. Czechia and Poland remain in bad shape. That central and eastern Europe region will get worse each day forward.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 3/5/21, at 1:00 PM EST: Texas Governor Abbott's decree of lifting mask mandates and other restrictions has other Americans demanding the same. Do you get the feeling that coronavirus is an infected snowball that is starting to roll downhill and in a few days no one will be able to stop it? People are becoming optimistic now that vaccinations are occurring. California will open theme parks in three weeks. Montana, North Dakota, Iowa, Mississippi, Louisiana and other states are lifting mask mandates and/or moving towards reopening schools and businesses. States are doing their own thing since there was never any coordinated leadership from the top during King Donnie's reign. Citizens remain in a state of pandemic confusion. In a CNN interview, Fauci says the mask mandates and other measures should not be pulled-back until the covid cases drop below 10K per day. The daily new cases are running over 67K now. Fauci wants to see the bulk of the country vaccinated. Millions of Americans do not plan to be vaccinated.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 3/5/21, at 3:00 PM EST: The US daily new cases are 68,231 above the 67,255 cases on Wednesday. This is not good. The US daily new cases bottomed on 2/28/21, Sunday, on the weekend, at 53,635 cases so daily cases rise for 4 consecutive days. The 7-day MA is at 64,111 cases so the last two days are above the 7-day average. This is not good. Baseball season is beginning so 'three strikes and yer out'. Remember, especially since it is only mentioned 85 times above, the important data is today's numbers. They will be known early tomorrow morning. The daily cases are above the 7-day MA for 2 days running so, by definition, the 7-day MA will curl upwards. If today's daily case data is another higher number especially a spike higher, America is screwed. This will indicate that a variant is starting to bite hard. If today's daily case data drops back below the 7-day MA, everyone will exclaim Hallelujah and Leonard Cohen will begin singing. It is a pivotal data point in the pandemic.
Note Added Friday Evening, 3/5/21: Detroit (Michigan, USA) Mayor Duggan inserts his foot into his mouth turning down a shipment of the J&J vaccine because he wanted to "get the best" vaccine and wait for the Pfizer or Moderna offerings. That wins today's jackass award. People are getting sick and dying dude. Duggan walks back the remarks. In defense of his awkward statement, Detroit is a large black population, it is the home of fantastic Motown greatness, and they have been royally screwed with the water scandal where public officials knew there was contamination and did nothing to help the folks. It is understandable that Detroit is apprehensive and distrustful of government and sick of receiving hand-me-down's and yesterday's newspapers, and they should be. Detroit wants to be receiving the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines like other cities. The intent is noble but the follow-through is incorrect since all three vaccines are effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths which is the key. The J&J vaccine was just approved so the gesture by the US government was probably to help Detroit with the shipment but it was not received in that spirit. Emotions are hot as a one-year pandemic continues. The pandemic is a chaotic mess because messaging remains a mess. Whoever is in charge (this is part of the problem with multiple doctors and organizations providing guidelines but no one knows who is actually in charge) needs to simply provide a sheet of paper with a table that has the three vaccines listed with a column that is mRNA and another that says conventional, and another column that says 1-shot and 2-shot, you get the idea. A very simple chart. People need a physical sheet of paper to hold in their hands since they will read that 20 times for it to sink in. Telling folks verbally is not of much use since they forget what they are told. Even the Detroit mayor is ignorant about the vaccinations and he is running the city. A simple chart with the vaccines described and a note at the base of the table emphasizing that all three will prevent hospital stays and death will go a long way to alleviating fear and educating the public. People will lay that information on the kitchen table and read it several times before they conclude that one vaccine is good as the next. This stuff is not rocket science. The pandemic needs a behavior psychologist to help out on the messaging and providing simple information materials for the public. As any experienced writer knows, to reach the broadest audience, pretend you are writing and describing things for a 5th grader (11 or 12-year old). This guarantees that everyone reading the information will understand what is said. The damage control on the Detroit matter continues through the evening. Medical professionals step in quickly to tell the public that all three of the vaccines are great since they stop the hospitalizations and prevent death. Also, people will likely receive several vaccines in the months and years forward and end up receiving the different types. Note how the medical community plants the seed of future vaccinations into people's minds. They are doing their job. Said cynically, in the future, perhaps everyone will have PICC ports installed in their upper right portion of the chest to administer the multiple vaccinations easier each year? That would be a Brave New World.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/6/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The big build-up into the Friday data, which is expected to be robust, is over. The data is in. A large spike higher does not occur which is a good thing, however, the daily cases remain strong at 67,281. The last three days are 67K-69K cases each day. The 7-day MA is 62,158 so the last three days of data will want to pull the 7-day MA line higher. The three low days are 2/28/21 through 3/1/21 with daily cases at 54K-58K. The lowest day of all recent days is 2/28/21, thus, in two days, the 3/7/21 data will no longer use this low number in the 7-day MA calculation. What does that mumbo-jumbo mean? It means the 7-day MA will likely curl higher going forward. It is not good that for three days running the daily cases are above the 7-day at 62,158. The data set will resolve itself in a couple-three days. Watch the 67K-69K line in the sand. If today's daily cases, and tomorrow's, remain at or move above this range, there will be trouble ahead. Fortunately, it is the weekend so perhaps the daily cases will be low numbers. If the daily cases the next couple days slip below 67K-69K, that is an excellent sign that would turn fantastic if any daily case number is below the 7-day MA at 62.2K. The 62.2K level is key and it will fluctuate daily since the 7-day MA calculation updates each day. The news is good that a big spike in the daily cases did not occur in the Friday data where it would have showed up but the jury remains out on America's fate forward for a couple more days. For now, the US is hanging in there with the daily cases 7-day MA moving sideways to sideways lower and the active cases curve continuing incrementally lower (but still no sign of the drop-off to create the bell shape). America is walking on covid eggshells. People that are vaccinated are becoming uptight that guidelines are not provided as to what they can and cannot do. CDC Director Walensky says guidelines are coming. Grandparents are getting vaccinated because they want to hug their grandchildren so they are waiting on instructions. The guidelines should be on one page or less in big bold print, large font, simple, and terse, and easily printed out and handed to people. It is likely better to keep the guidelines general and let people figure things out themselves. People want to be safe with each other so they will do the best they can. The physical, mental and emotional connection is key after many months of isolation living. Everybody needs some love. The rules can be additive if general but if the CDC gets in the weeds with detailed notes, it will create confusion and put them immediately on the defensive.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/6/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US is at 29.6 million coronavirus cases with 535,563 Americans dead. We crossed the 400K mark on Biden's inauguration day 1/20/21 which is only 6 weeks ago. 20.1 million Americans have recovered. There are almost 117 million global citizens infected with coronavirus. 2.6 million earthlings have perished from COVID-19. Over 92 million have recovered. India's daily cases continue higher. Oh-my. Brazil reports 75,337 daily new cases the highest ever except for one other day on 1/7/21. Brazil is in big trouble and the situation is worsening not improving. Dear Lord. 1,760 Brazilians die yesterday, and 1,786 the day before, and 1,840 the day before that and 1,726 the day before that for the four deadliest days of the entire pandemic. Humans are dropping like flies. It has to be that nasty P1 variant. People are waiting in line for 8 hours to be vaccinated and only 4% of Brazil has received one-shot while only 1% has received two-shots. Many Brazilians, as the pandemic spins out of control, are protesting the lockdown measures no longer willing to comply. WHO steps in and pleads with Brazil to give the vaccines a chance but the natives remain restless. Brazil's troubles are escalating. The UK remains in good shape with the active cases bell curve proudly displayed, however, the daily new cases are moving sideways and no longer dropping. Italy's daily cases continue higher now up to 24,036 the highest since late November. Italy brace yourself; the pandemic will become worse for you each day forward. France remains in trouble. COVID-19 is wreaking havoc in Poland, Czechia and Ukraine. These countries will need help. The central and eastern Europe region is a hotspot that continues to worsen each day forward. Germany's daily cases are moving sideways, however, in bad news, 40% of the new cases are the B117 variant. The EU is embarrassed at its horrible handling of the pandemic; it is worse than Trump's mishandling.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/6/21, at 9:00 AM EST: The universities are going into the spring break period so young people will be heading to warmer weather to par-tay. Everyone was young once when caution is thrown to the wind and a feeling of invincibility is in the air. Age and experience breeds hesitancy. CNN reports that the UK B117 strain is in 46 states with 2,672 cases (and this is with minimal genetic testing in place). 24% of the B117 cases are in Florida where the young ladies in bikinis and men with wide eyes, ready for fun after the last final, plan on frolicking on the beach. This may not end well. The South Africa B1351 is in 16 US states with 68 cases again, with minimal DNA sequencing tests performed. The Brazil P1 strain is in 7 states with 13 cases. To turn up the intensity, worry, fear and anxiety to 11, as Spinal Tap says, several news sources report that the first patient has tested positive for a combination of the B117 and B1351 variants. Cue the Twilight Zone music. The medical drama unfolds in real-time while the virus-fatigued public begins shedding their masks and frolicking in freedom exclaiming 'pandemic be damned'. Perhaps the world will reach herd immunity in the months ahead but it may be more due to the number of people that become sick instead of people vaccinated, which would be a sad thing, but people need money to live.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/6/21, at 11:00 AM EST: The coronavirus news flow is robust over the last couple days. The race between the variants and vaccines continues. The US is striving to vaccinate as many people as possible before the variants take hold. The world will never be rid of COVID-19 until all nations are rid of the virus. A new T-cell test developed by Adaptive Biotechnologies, in partnership with Microsoft, is given emergency approval. The T-cells are memory cells that can crank-up the production of antibodies if they see a virus threat coming on. The test will better enable America to find out who has had exposure to coronavirus. Perhaps far more Americans have antibodies now than anyone realizes? That would bring on herd immunity faster. Dr Marty Makary, at Johns-Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, proclaims that he is 100% confident the United States is on track to reach herd immunity by the end of April. That is a gutsy call. What's he smoking? Pass it around to the rest of us. He says people are not being informed about the good news in the fight against COVID-19. Makary says 22% of the country is vaccinated and the pace of vaccinations tag 3 million doses per day on Friday. Wow. That is impressive and where the US needs to be but he admits the supplies will be limiting in the very near term (the number cannot be verified; Bloomberg's own vaccine tracker which is part of his partnership, is at 2.2 million doses per da; another source 2.0 million per day; CNN may have reported 2.9 million per day but it is unknown where this data comes from; J-H actual vaccine data and maps do not identify this number; it sounds like a stretch to jump from 2 million doses per day to 3 million per day in one day's time; he may have misspoke or maybe the data has not yet updated). The doctor decrees that 1% of the American population is being vaccinated every 24 hours. He says 114 million vaccine doses are delivered and 85 million doses are administered (75%). He says there is 0% immunity in the first 10 days after receiving a vaccination and you have to wait about 30 days for the immunity to kick in which occurs after the second shot. A poll shows that the Americans willing to receive the vaccine increases from 60% to about 70%. 13% of US citizens adamantly refuse to take the vaccine and probably never will (about 43 million people but herd immunity can still be workable without them). Makary is Mister Rosy Talk proclaiming, "The stat's are going in the right direction" (He needs to study the data and charts a bit closer.) Makary says the daily new cases will stay at low levels and deaths will continue lower. It is all blue skies and rainbows. If you listen closely, you can hear Makary's mariachi band playing La Cucaracha in the background. Makary takes the media and reporters to task proclaiming, "There is fear-mongering around the variants." He says UK and South Africa show 90% reductions in infections. He is an optimistic chap and representing Johns-Hopkins so it is interesting that the organization is putting its entire reputation on the line saying that herd immunity is only 55 days away. As they say in Brooklyn, "Good luck wit dat." Makary is correct with the UK and South Africa stats but he cherry-picked the two very best examples that exist in the world. These countries were hammered mercilessly by COVID-19 with the B117 variant slapping England and the B1351 variant smacking South Africa. These variants are now in other nations including the United States. Makary neglects to tell you that the rosy situation in South Africa has migrated north with Botswana the Hellhole that South Africa was a couple months ago. Viruses travel, dude, as you know. He must have been distracted when the Botswana data shows 2,356 cases only four days ago the highest ever. The Botswana active cases curve is the highest ever and the death curve has gone parabolic (straight vertical; people are dropping like flies). The deadliest day ever occurs in Botswana a week ago. The UK is hanging in there but Ireland remains a mess Makary also says the number of reinfections with the new variants remains low. He is not looking at the right data which is odd since Johns-Hopkins has mountains of it. Peru is experiencing a reinfection rate of from 40 to 60%! Brazil is also experiencing a reinfection rate of 40% as the nation is being taken down in real-time by the P1 variant. It is great to hear cheerleading and rosy talk but as the pandemic mess continues for over a year, straight-talk is a better path forward. Let's hope Dr Makary and Johns-Hopkins is correct. The data currently indicates that it is too premature to make such rosy predictions.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 3/6/21, at 1:00 PM EST: The natives have left the reservation. In Idaho, a mass mask-burning event takes place where over 20 burn barrels appear throughout the state with people throwing their masks into the flames. It is reminiscent of the women libber's burning their bra's in the 1960's and early 70's. Back then, American ladies threw their mops, aprons, high heels, lipstick and nylon stockings into the 'Freedom Trash Can' and told the men to pound salt. Men shrug their shoulders and say oh well, it was good while it lasted. Idaho may spark a 'Burn the Mask' movement. Ironically, Idaho has one of the worst coronavirus test positivity rates in the nation over 20%. Humorously, they should be wearing the masks instead of burning them.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 3/6/21, at 3:15 PM EST: The United States passes the $1.9 trillion covid relief package in the Senate. The bill will return to the House for approval and then President Biden will sign it into law perhaps on Tuesday. Lower-income Americans will receive $1,400 checks. The bill has a misleading name since only 9% of the funding is actually for the pandemic and covid relief. The bill is laden with pork. It bails out the incompetent states in the US that have blown out budgets from overpaying workers and guaranteeing lucrative pensions. Such is America's crony capitalism system in its final throes. The money is greatly needed to try and get rid of the pandemic once and for all; the funds were needed last summer and Fall but the democrats held things up to not give former President Trump something to brag about on the campaign trail. If the plan was approved before the election, Trump may have won reelection. Politics is a dirty business and both of the corrupt parties are pigs in mud feeding from the taxpayer's money trough each day.
Note Added Saturday Evening, 3/6/21: Texas creates confusion over the mask guidelines. Americans are throwing caution to the wind after Governor Abbott sounds the all-clear on coronavirus. Abbott is claiming that any increase in Texas virus cases will be due to the immigrants from Mexico "importing covid" into the United States. These types of statements are not helpful for humanity. Americans are asking why they should wear a mask when other states are nixing their mask guidelines. Comically, in some states, bars and restaurants are told they can reopen but they must follow mask guidelines. That is funny. Picture a packed bar with the techo music going bomp, bomp, bomp, the ladies dancing to and fro, sweaty forearms and biceps comingling as the crowd grows larger and the venue becomes more cramped, sputum is flying in the hot air as patrons shout over the sound of the band. Good luck with that path forward. Pandemic chaos and confusion reigns!
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/7/21, at 2:00 AM EST: US daily new coronavirus cases are 58,228 cases below the 7-day MA at 61K which is good news. The jury remains out on the trend ahead but it will reveal itself this week. The weekend data is expected to be a bit lighter. GLOBAL DEATHS FROM COVID-19 EXCEED 2.6 MILLION. Global coronavirus cases exceed 117 million. 537,119 Americans are dead from coronavirus with total cases approaching 30 million. The China Flu continues wreaking havoc around the world. Once the world gets back on its feet, it will band together and pay a visit to dirtbag Dictator Xi and ask him about his, and the CCP's, bioweapon ambitions. India and Brazil continue down the covid rabbit hole. Russia was heading in the right direction the last couple months but their daily cases are starting to flatten at elevated levels (not good; the daily cases need to keep dropping). Hungary reports over 7.2K daily new cases the highest ever. Johns-Hopkins says America will reach herd immunity in 54 days.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/7/21, at 5:00 AM EST: President Biden is finding it difficult to get the states to row in the same direction. The Texas move to lift the mask mandate creates overnight confusion across the United States. Biden is realizing it is not so easy to herd those state kittens back to the kitchen now that they are running all over the house. Each state is doing its own thing which creates conflicts at borders. Biden can tell Americans and the states to enforce mask-wearing all he wants but the governors can say go blow. The CDC is receiving increasing criticism for their absenteeism the last couple days. Director Walensky has been doing interviews but the promised guidelines for vaccinated people are not released as yet and people are simply starting to do their own thing. The CDC may have missed the window available to focus the effort in one direction. The states are starting to row off in different directions and each boat has a kitten in it too. Some Americans are partying this weekend celebrating the return to normalcy but no one sounded the all-clear. The natives are restless and take matters into their own hands. Police break up a big party in Colorado where young people were being young people.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/7/21, at 8:00 AM EST: ABC News hypes the Asian race narrative proclaiming that incidents against Asian-Americans are out of control because of the pandemic. No they aren't. As previously mentioned, the narrative is being pushed by the liberal-leaning media to feed their overall objective to label America as a racist nation, thus opening the door for long-term control by the democrat party or other reason. America is not a racist nation. Think about your daily interactions at work, at play, at the grocery store. All of us have friends and coworkers of every walk of life, ethnicity, race, whatever label you want to use. Everyone gets along fine. Throw the criminals in jail that are creating the limited number of hate crimes. New York keeps showing the same three videos over and over for the last three weeks. What does that tell you? Some of those cases are from the time before the pandemic. Some cases are simply robberies. Some are gang crimes such as initiations. New York says there is a +833% rise in intimidation or assault cases against an Asian person; however, this is only 20 cases which is made to sound like hundreds. It is similar to the pandemic where everything is called coronavirus nowadays. Every criminal case, no matter how remotely-connected, is now called an act against Asians. America used to log between 40K and 70K flu deaths per year, every year. Guess how many over the last year? Not even a hundo. Everything is labeled covid now. You can probably subtract 100K deaths from the COVID-19 total to account for the regular flu deaths over the last 15 months. Nowadays, if you look at someone the wrong way or ask the laundry worker (it's a joke do not get in an uproar) directions to Carnegie Hall, you are called a racist against Asians. Isn't it ridiculous? Get the nutcases off the streets that are doing any harm to our fellow Americans, and until then, if you are Asian, keep your eyes out, and everyone else will be watching out for you as well. This limited Asian backlash should run its course so everyone simply needs to chill out and keep cool with one another. As for the verbal abuse against Asians, there is nothing you can do about that, humans are *ssholes. If you are expecting to change every human to think the way you want them to think, you will live a wasted life. If a person makes an ignorant remark, stay away from them. Friends or coworkers will defend their Asian friends and always side with them. You will always have *ssholes. That's life. Do not listen to the race-baiting narratives. America is not a racist country. Do not let anyone tell you that. We all have to watch out and help our Asian friends and things will be fine.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/7/21, at 10:00 AM EST: New York Governor Casanova Cuomo is hanging on by a thread. Not only is the governor continuing to deal with the nursing home scandal where thousands of people died perhaps needlessly, but the new sex scandal is slapping him as well. Three staffers accuse Cuomo of harassment. Smart and pretty Charlotte Bennett, only 25 years young, appears on television describing Cuomo's carnal desires. He's sunk. Powerful men are powerless against beautiful women. Concerning the ethnic breakdown of the vaccination program, 60.4% are white, 11.5% Hispanic/Latinx, 5.4% Black and 6.0% Asian. There are more white doctors, nurses, caregivers and first responders that receive the vaccines by mandate, but obviously there is vaccine inequality occurring. The US is playing catch-up and focusing on the matter so it should improve in the days and few weeks ahead. Folks need to be more patient which is lacking with society nowadays. The 'Latinx' moniker has bee popping up over the last couple years as the generic catch-all for both genders. Latino and Latina do not have a gender neutral offering like white, black, brown, Asian, Native American, French and Brit which can be either gender. Hispanic works but the folks do not like this word as much anymore so that explains the move to Latinx. But saying Latinx sounds like Kleenex and it is not catching on. The public dictates the names and monikers. Maybe someone can come up with a good solution for our Latino friends that will not leave out the smart and pretty Latinas. This genre encompasses many brown folks including Mexico, Central and South America and those from both Portuguese and Spanish decent, so it is tricky to fit all those folks into a box, which is what society likes to do, and put a label on it. Maybe shorten it to "Lat." Will that work? The black community is lagging in vaccinations and both black and Asian's are vaccinated at one-half the rate of lat's and one-tenth the rate of whites. A Latino bodybuilder would be a lat proud of his lat's. Hopefully, the Latino folks can find a way to a gender-neutral word that they like. Latinx is not winning any popularity votes.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 3/7/21, at 12:00 PM EST: At a news conference, the WHO director says the pandemic has caused more trauma than WW II. The general says the impact from COVID-19 will continue "for many years to come." Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus receives the Captain Obvious award for today. WHO Deputy Maria van Kerkhove chimes in decreeing that the world remains in the acute phase of the pandemic. The comments and a dollar will get you a cup of coffee. Concerning the UK B117 variant, 20% of the US cases are B117 and 30% of all B117 cases are in Florida where all the young folks are planning to par-tay during spring break. The NBA (National Basketball Association) All-Star Game is this evening in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, but fans are not permitted to attend State Farm Arena. Medical officials are concerned that the event may become a superspreader since the all-star game attracts wild parties and a drunken evening in bars. The Superbowl was not a superspreader event so let's trust Americans that are doing the right thing for the most part, and assume the festivities will not be a superspreader event.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 3/7/21, at 8:00 PM EST: Video is showing the parties and beach fun in Florida as college students enjoy spring break. It is obviously going to be a superspreader. The young folks are enjoying young life, as we all remember, time with friends, coming of age, laughing and joking, drinking, and nowadays spreading coronavirus. The B117 variant is rampant in Florida where the young folks are basking in the airborne germs while enjoying each other's sweaty bodies. The US government says Russia hackers are providing misinformation on the internet concerning the vaccines.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/8/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The CDC vaccine tracker shows a vaccine dose rate of between 1.6 million and 2.3 million doses each day for the last week. The strongest day was a week ago at 2.7 million doses per day. The 3 million per day dose quoted on the weekend was incorrect as suspected. There are still claims of 2.9 million doses but the very information referenced does not show that high a rate. There were 5.3 million doses administered on the weekend and that was divvied up as 2.9 and 2.4 but in reality some of that 5.3 was likely from Friday. The vaccine rate is somewhat steady the last week or so at about 2.1 million doses per day. Bloomberg's own vaccine data cites 2.2 million doses per day. The New York Times cites 2.2 million doses per day. The 3 million doses per day was a shocking number when mentioned the other day and the reason it was is because it was wrong.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/8/21, at 8:00 AM EST: Sunday's daily new cases in the US drop to 42K which is great news, however, it is the expected lowest data day of the week. America is hanging in there. This week and next will probably dictate the path ahead for the remainder of the year. The overwhelming consensus is that the pandemic is ending. People are shunning masks, even burning them. Young folks are celebrating spring break trading kisses and hugs around the campfire. Schools and businesses are reopening in some instances ignoring what officials say. Right now, things are okay, but it feels like watching the disappearing shoreline right before the tsunami comes in. New York coronavirus daily cases remain elevated. Cassanova Cuomo keeps hanging on to his job even though everyone is telling him it is time to go. The women keep lining up with stories. Cuomo sinks into a carnal quagmire with the weight of the nursing home scandal on his back. No one is throwing him a rope. Illinois's daily new cases rise to the highest in about a month. Is virus spreading in Chicago? America has a chance to tamp this pandemic down but it is not over until the fat lady sings. And that plump beauty is the US active cases chart that is moving lower, which is fantastic, but it needs to drop off sharply to form the important bell shape. Until then, the jury remains out on when the pandemic will end. Will the United States win the battle against COVID-19 or succumb to its wrath again brought down by our partying ways?
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/8/21, at 9:00 AM EST: The CDC releases the much-anticipated guidelines for vaccinated people. There are not many complaints against the simple one-page document so the CDC will be happy. Vaccinated folks can gather with other vaccinated people inside without masks and social distancing. The CDC considers a person fully vaccinated two weeks after receiving any of the three vaccinations (Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna 2-shot or J&J 1-shot). Vaccinated people can visit low-risk unvaccinated folks and are encouraged to still wear masks and practice social distancing in public. Inoculated people should avoid large gatherings. The guidelines are kept minimalistic and can be added to if someone has a beef. Vaccinated grandparents simply wanted to know if they can hug their grandchildren safely and that is a yes so you will not hear them complain anymore. The CDC reports that 78% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients are overweight or obese. If you want to incentivize yourself to lose some pounds, use a sack of potatoes. If 10 pounds overweight, carry the 10 pound sack of potatoes around the house and you realize how much strain it is on your body. Humans do not notice the heavier weight added to their frames. If 20 pounds overweight, carry two sacks of potatoes around the house. You do not want to carry all that weight around straining your heart and lungs, do you?
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 3/8/21, at 1:00 PM EST: Italy is at 100,103 deaths from coronavirus crossing the grim 100K milestone. Six nations are in this dubious club; USA with 538K dead. Brazil 267K dead, Mexico 191K, India 158K and UK at 125K dead. Lots of families are changed forever because of the CCP's coronavirus. Manmouth releases a poll stating that 24% of Americans, call it 1 in 4, say they will never get the vaccine if they can avoid it. Ethical and moral considerations are being discussed more each day since countries and companies may require vaccine passports and documentation to travel or participate at events. The travel industry is lobbying the Whitehouse to invoke vaccine passports because that will boost business; at least for the wealthy elite class. Economic considerations must be weighed because people that do not plan to be vaccinated would then not be contributing to the economy. Governments must realize that many people will refuse to take on the Mark of the Beast until their dying day so it is not well-advised to force the issue. Such edicts will likely hasten the start of America's class war and expand social unrest. A vaccine passport society will exacerbate the split between rich and poor, and ultimately, create deep problems for America.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/9/21, at 3:00 AM EST: There are more Americans fully vaccinated now (2 shots), at 31 million, than total coronavirus cases at 29.7 million. The small victories keep adding up. The US daily cases were lighter on the weekend as expected and Monday's data is also lower at 45K cases which is great news. A small bump higher would have been expected. America has a shot at beating the virus. The lower Monday data is a bigtime positive development. If the daily cases keep moving incrementally lower, and if this Friday's data (when the large numbers tend to appear) reman low, the US active cases curve will have to drop off sharply and finally confirm that covid is being defeated. As good as this data looks the last three days, with the 7-day MA on the US daily cases trending steadily lower, the jury is out until the active cases curve shows the steep drop-off to form the bell shape. Americans are quickly throwing caution to the wind, shunning masks and frolicking on beaches, encouraged by the more positive news flow.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/9/21, at 3:20 AM EST: The COVID-19 outbreak in central and eastern Europe continues. Italy, France, Austria, Hungary, Poland, Ukraine and many other nations display non-stop rising daily cases. Germany's data is flattish and hinting that the virus may be starting to expand despite the focused effort by the Deutschland to stop the spread. Italy is exploring an option with Russia to produce the Sputnik vaccine. Greece reports 3,181 new cases today the worse day since the same numbers in November. Greece is in bad shape. People with newly vaccinated arms, anxious for a vacation, may be making plans to fly into the disease-infested Greek islands.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/9/21, at 6:30 AM EST: Detractors criticize the CDC guidelines saying their approach was a bit timid but the push back appears mild. The CDC said they can add to the guidelines so the situation is manageable. One mistake may be calling out the airlines individually cautioning "travel on a plane." The airline industry is vocal this morning concerned that they are singled out while the CDC is lenient to other forms of travel. Other detractors are concerned about the slight relaxation of mask rules. Americans are seeking freedom from the pandemic throwing masks in the air and frolicking in the springtime sunshine. The variants are still hiding in the bushes.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 3/9/21, at 3:00 PM EST: BioNTech says it can produce up to 3 billion vaccine doses by 2022 depending on need. The vaccine supply and availability is bright for the months ahead which is key to get the entire world to herd immunity as soon as possible. None of us are actually at herd immunity until all of us are at herd immunity. America is in crisis at the southern border after President Biden changed the immigration policy. Everybody and his brother are coming into the United States. News sources say as many as 1 in 4 immigrants are testing positive for coronavirus and the US is limiting the tests. Alaska is offering vaccine to all its residents. Eli Lilly announces ongoing positive results with its combinations antibody treatment.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 3/10/21, at 7:30 AM EST: The US daily new cases rise to 55,683 cases the highest in 3 days. The 7-day MA is at 58,564. Here we go again. The 7-day moving average (MA) is a smoothing mechanism that helps identify the trend. It is fantastic that the 7-day MA continues lower, any amount of lower is excellent. The daily cases have also resumed the pattern of lower lows and lower highs albeit at a more gentle slope lower again, great news. This is a technical test, however. Cases are coming up to back kiss the 7-day MA and will pivot. If the cases are spanked back down from the 7-day adn remain below, that is excellent news and over the coming days the US active cases curve will have to drop sharply to form the bell shape and confirm the virus is on the ropes. If, however, the daily cases pop above 58,564 today, there may be further trouble coming. US daily deaths pop to 1,704 yesterday after a few days of lesser numbers.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 3/10/21, at 9:00 AM EST: Texas goes mask-less. It is a grand experiment. People are excited about seeing light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel. Will the joy develop into sustained covid-free happiness for America, or, will the joy descend into a relapse of coronavirus pain and misery? Health officials are concerned that the covid guidelines are being rescinded just as the UK B117 variant is taking hold in the US. The new mutation may create disaster and Dr Osterholm, who has been given the nickname of Dr Doom by his detractors since his comments are typically negative, proclaims that we are "in the eye of the hurricane." His predictions about approaching waves has been correct. Osterholm suggests that as many Americans as possible should be immediately vaccinated with the first shot in priority over folks receiving the second shot. The UK had success with this approach but the US does not want to deviate from the basis of the drug trials. Dr Gounder says the B117 strain is spiking in the US and "increasing exponentially." Gounder decrees, "We are probably right now on a tipping point for another surge." Dr Fauci keep saying that the US daily new cases have plateaued at too high a level. Dr Walensky warns America that "this is not the time to relax." About 10% of the US is vaccinated. US deaths have dropped from 5K per day down to sub 2K per day. US daily cases have dropped from nearly 300K per day down to about 60K per day. The future looks bright but is America about to be slapped in the face with B117? The UK stain is 64% more deadly than the common D614G strain. This means, for example, that if 2 people die from regular COVID-19, i t would be 3 deaths with the nastier B117 variant. Or, on a larger-scale, if 100 people died of COVID-19, 160 people would have died if it was the B117 variant. 30% to 40% of the positive cases in the US right now are B117.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 3/10/21: Merck is having success with a covid treatment in pill form but more trials are needed. In a 200 person study, no one taking the pill contracted covid while six others in the placebo group tested positive for covid. Obviously, people would prefer a pill rather than a shot. 92 million vaccines are administered worldwide and 1,600 deaths occur within a few days of the shot. The majority of deaths have to be due to comorbidities and sorted out over time. That death rate, which may or may not be attributable in part or in whole to the vaccinations, is a miniscule 0.00174%. Of course, it is not insignificant for the families of the deceased but overall, a person on the fence about taking the vaccine should not be worried by this statistic. In Utah, a 39-year old woman receives the second shot and four days later kills over. The autopsy and investigation continues but liver failure is suspected.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 3/10/21: The House passes the $1.9 trillion covid relief bill that incorporates the Senate changes. President Biden will sign the bill tomorrow. Biden speaks briefly praising the package and money provided for covid vaccinations, vaccinators and vaccination sites. He stresses the covid-related monies, which is less than 10% of the package, but ignores mentioning the pork and state bailouts. Biden mentions the 2.9 million doses per day number which is incorrect. The country was at 2 million doses per day vaccination rate a couple weeks ago, and 2.1 a week ago, and now at 2.2 million doses per day rate. That 3 million per day number was tossed out to the media on the weekend as Saturday's number but that had more to do with someone fudging numbers on the back of an envelope. Embellishments, which is the hallmark of the pandemic's communication plan for the last year, especially under showman Trump, only serve to breed distrust of all information.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/11/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The EU and UK continue arguing with each other about the AstraZeneca vaccine distribution. The European Union says the UK is not providing data on the vaccine production numbers and shipments. UK PM Johnson proclaims that he is against vaccine nationalism. Humans will support each other until it comes down to survival when they will slit each other's throats over the last cup of water. On the vaccine diplomacy front, Israel is shipping doses to foreign nations as the country approaches full vaccination. COVAX, a program under the corrupt WHO organization (that coordinated with the CCP to downplay the China Virus when it first appeared in Wuhan over one year ago), is shipping vaccine doses to third world nations. Russia is lobbying for Italy to use its Sputnik vaccine. Central and eastern Europe is in an outbreak right now and beggars cannot be choosers. Italy may have to go with Sputnik. Dirtbag Dictator Putin, the thug, would want nothing better than to be viewed as the savior of central Europe. No one stops to ask why Putin does not vaccinate millions of his own people while he tries to sell Sputnik abroad. Today is the one-year anniversary of WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus telling the world that COVID-19 is a pandemic. The WHO delayed the announcement a few weeks to provide time for the dirtbag CCP to buy every available PPE inventory in the world. The China Flu could be a crime against humanity but the communists keep covering-up and hiding information concerning the origination of the virus. The world needs to heal first, then unite, then pay dirtbag Dictator Xi, the leader of the filthy CCP, a visit. Dr Fauci is criticized for all the mixed messages over the last year.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/11/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Global coronavirus cases are approaching 119 million. The China Flu has killed over 2.6 million people a historic tragedy. Brazil reports 81K daily new cases the highest cases ever except for 1/7/21. Brazil deaths spike to 2,349 the deadliest day ever by a huge margin. It is jaw-dropping. May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls. Brazil's hospital system is in collapse. If you become sick with covid and have difficulty breathing, you will die in Brazil since the oxygen sources and equipment are depleted. President Bolsonaro, like Trump, did not take the pandemic serious so the country pays the price. He may have a revolt on his hands as the weeks play out. Bolsonaro keeps hyping hydroxychloroquine for treatment (because it is cheap) but the medical studies show it to be useless once a patient is infected. The studies do show that hydroxychloroquine can help as a preventive measure before covid is contracted. South America has been keeping much of the pandemic at bay with ivermectin (horse deworming medicine). The US medical doctors pooh-pooh and denigrate any concept that does not agree with their use of vaccines as the only solution. Vitamin D-3 will boost your immune system and can help as a preventive measure. A couple days ago, an idiot US doctor says D-3 is of no use. If your doctor ever tells you to not bother with vitamins or they do not help you, walk out and get yourself a new doctor. In a CNN poll, 77% of Americans say the worst of the pandemic is over. They are partying like its 1999. Lord Have Mercy if the B117 variant wreaks havoc. The disappointment would be devastating to many people.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/11/21, at 4:00 AM EST: India's daily new cases jump to 23K steadily rising for a month and the highest in 2 months. Deaths increase. India is staring at a major outbreak developing. Russia deaths spike to 466 yesterday while murderer Putin is hawking his Sputnik vaccine around the world. The UK sees 10 days of flat daily new cases but needs this number to continue lower. Ditto Spain. France is ready to tag 90K deaths. France's daily new cases are a lofty 30K. Germany's daily new cases spike to 12,246 the highest in a month. Poland, Ukraine, Czechia, Hungary, Austria, the entire central and eastern European region is a pandemic mess.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/11/21, at 4:10 AM EST: US coronavirus cases are approaching 30 million with 542,191 deaths. 20.6 million Americans have recovered. US daily new cases are 60,355. Oh-no. The US 7-day MA of daily new cases is 57,621. This is not good. US daily cases just moved above the important 7-day MA that identifies trend. If daily cases remain above the 7-day MA, by definition, the moving average will be pulled higher which is a very bad thing. The US active cases curve still does not show the steep drop-off to create the bell shape so we are not out of the woods by any means. The race between vaccinating as many people as possible and the B117 and other variants continues. Osterholm may be on to something by following the lead of the UK and simply vaccinate as many folks as possible with one dose. The US doctors do not want to deviate from the drug trials but also patients with one dose interacting with the variants may produce a very dominant mutation. Interestingly, the UK daily case data has leveled off and is not dropping anymore. Will the one-dose push in the UK come back to haunt them? Everyone is trying to understand the pandemic as it plays out in real-time.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/11/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Bloomberg, DW, Newsweek and National Post report bombshell news that DENMARK SUSPENDS ITS ASTAZENECA VACCINE PROGRAM due to blood clots appearing in patients even in children. AstraZeneca says the vaccine is safe. Europe has a big problem with the latest covid outbreak spreading and now problems with the AstraZeneca vaccine. Denmark's daily new cases spike wildly higher by a factor of four to 2,007 cases.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/11/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Norway places a ban on the AstraZeneca vaccine after the Denmark communication. Sweden, however, says there is no reason to change their vaccination program. Italy stops vaccinations from a batch of AstraZeneca vaccine. Netherlands says there is no concern. Europe is in disarray. The countries cannot agree on anything. One will say its raining but another will say the sun is out. Such is government by committee. Europe is the victim of bad timing with the pandemic outbreak increasing in the central and eastern regions as the vaccination program goes from bad to worse.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 3/11/21: President Biden signs the $1.9 trillion covid-related spending package that was planned for tomorrow. The democrats brag that that the bill is historic legislation. Biden plans to speak this evening in an address to the nation. Target department stores plan to expand the vaccination programs with the CVS drug stores located within their stores. In a clever idea, Target will use the changing booths in the clothing department as private areas where shots can be administered. The US needs mobile vaccination vehicles that can drive into the rundown city areas and give shots directly to people without the need for appointments. This is the way a lot of folks like to operate so if the US wants to vaccinate as many people as possible, the medical folks will have to play on their court. Vir Biotechnology announces encouraging results with its intravenous covid treatment they hope to develop into a one-shot vaccine. VIR stock catapults +37% higher. The corrupt insider traders that found out the news ahead of time made bundles of easy money cash on the news. Such is the crony capitalism system that created the New Gilded Age.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 3/11/21, at 9:00 PM EST: President Biden addresses the nation in a prime time speech. Biden says there will be enough vaccine for everyone in America by May 1st. All citizens will be made eligible to receive the vaccine by then. He is hoping that life can resemble normalcy by Independence Day July 4th. The president says a website will provide information on where to get vaccinated and for people without a computer, a telephone number will be provided. This is fine and dandy but mobile units will be needed to take the vaccination sites directly to disadvantaged folks. Perhaps tents can be erected in a ball lot or parking lot that is near project or row housing in inner cities so people can simply walk over and receive the shot. These efforts to help common folks should begin immediately since the new $1.9 trillion bill will provide funding. From volunteering in these areas for many years and assisting these folks, most are the working poor, and knowing their home and other situations, a mobile vaccination vehicle pulling up next to the building where they live, or tent in their parking lot, is the only way some would ever get the vaccine.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 3/11/21, at 9:15 PM EST: It is a shame that Biden spews the Asian hate theme race-baiting the country. Biden says there are "viscous" crimes occurring against Asian people everywhere due to the virus. Where? What is he smoking? Everyone has seen the handful of assaults against Asian Americans; in a country of 330 million people. One guy is pushed from behind. These attacks are real and terrible. Throw the criminals in jail and be done with it. Biden proclaims that Asians are "forced to fear for their lives." Come on now. Do you Asian folks tremble in fear each day like he says? Of course you don't. Share a wink, a nod, a smile or a wave with an Asian soul to make them feel at home. Every society has sick nutcases that is what jails are for. Biden would have done better to mention verbal abuse since that is likely the root cause of the angst in the Asian community. Like all ethnic groups, they are sick of the stereotypes such as being portrayed as a Chinese restaurant guy or laundry worker, or the assumption that you know how to fix computers. Come on; it is okay to laugh. Every group has its idiosyncrasies. The Italians are joked about because they tend to do a lot of concrete and tile work. If you work any construction site, someone will tell the joke, "How do you break up an Italian wedding?" You open the church door and yell inside, "Cement truck's ready!" America has to learn to laugh at itself again, and it will over time. There are some jerk people, or drunks, that are going to say ignorant things and blame Asian folks for the Wuhan Virus. You will never change their attitudes or minds so why beat your head against the wall? Simply ignore them and stay away from them and enjoy the company of the other 99% of Americans that get along fine with one another. And no, no one, zilch, blame any Asian American or any Asian for the China Flu. That is stupid to think that way. Make note of any newscaster or politician that spews this Asian hate stuff since they are weaving narratives about a racist America, for who knows what reason, that are blatantly untrue. It is easier for a government to control a population that lives in fear and angst.
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/12/21, at 2:00 AM EST: Bad news. The US daily cases post another high at 62,773 cases. The 7-day MA is 56,927. It is terrible that we are almost 6K cases above the trend line. Remember, the Friday data are typically the most robust of any day of the week. It becomes cliché to keep naming days as important pivotal days but again, today's data is critical. If the US daily cases maintain the 63K levels and higher, actually anything above the 7-day MA at 57K, it creates a path of misery ahead. The US must get the daily cases back under the 7-day MA as fast as possible, otherwise, a new wave of coronavirus despair will drown the United States. Americans go mask-less, frolicking in the springtime flowers, anxiously beginning an adolescent weekend, oblivious that their covid destiny hangs in the balance.
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/12/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Bulgaria joins Norway and Denmark in concern that the AstraZeneca vaccine causes blood clots. Germany and France say the worries are unfounded. AstraZeneca says there is no evidence of the clotting issue. Italy's daily new cases jump to 26K the highest since November. Italy finally realizes the trouble they are in, that the chronology has warned about for almost two weeks, and a lockdown is imposed through Easter on 4/12/21. Prime Minister Draghi vows to increase the vaccine rollout. France remains in bad shape. Oh-no. There it is. Germany lost it. Two days of big spikes in daily cases above 12K. Germany acknowledges that the virus is spreading. The European outbreak worsens. Poland's daily cases spike. Deaths spike for two days. Belgium reports over 3.4K cases which are creeping higher. Oh, Lord. Hungary spikes to 8.3K daily new cases a record. Austria reports elevated daily cases. That region is going to Hell in a handbag. Good luck. Murderous Dictator Putin is shipping Sputnik vaccine to many nations around the world including Argentina, Bolivia, Venezuela, Mexico and Iran, while his people die. 466 Russians die yesterday of covid, an elevated number, and the total deaths are over 91K. Perhaps the reason that Sputnik flies around the world is because of the cash that flies into Putin's pockets.
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/12/21, at 9:00 AM EST: Novavax reports encouraging results with its vaccine drug trial at 96.4% efficacy. The vaccine did not do as well against the South Africa B1351 strain only 55% effective. That is a good percentage, however, for a vaccine. Novavax may be next to receive emergency approval and it can serve as another tool in the covid tool box. The more tools the better. NVAX stock jumps +16%.
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/12/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Testing for coronavirus in the US has taken a back seat during the vaccination push which is not a good thing. The variants may be silently spreading undetected. New York Governor Cuomo, at the heart of the nursing home scandal where thousands of covid deaths occurred needlessly, is under intense fire to resign. Women are accusing him of sexual discrimination. Cuomo cannot do his job with all the distractions occurring but he refuses to step down. He may have to be impeached. Cuomo was negotiating his book deal when nursing home patients were being sent home to meet The Maker.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 3/12/21, at 12:30 PM EST: An AP-NORC poll says 30% of Americans remain worried about contracting coronavirus. This does not bode will for stimulus spending. 1 in 5 people have lost a loved one to coronavirus. The minorities are hit harder with 1 in 3 Blacks and 1 in 3 Hispanics having lost loved ones. People have to understand that a once in a century pandemic is not going to be a walk in the park, and it is not.
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