By K E Stone (Keystone)
As feared, January 2021 is the worst month of the
coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. 93K Americans die this month thus far with a
couple more days remaining. At least it should not reach the 100K death level
for January; fingers crossed. 450K Americans are dead from covid. 21% of the total
American covid deaths of the entire pandemic occur in January, the last 29
days! Coronavirus has killed more Americans than the six years of WW II.
The US crosses above 26.5 million cases and 6 million, or 23%,
of these infections occur this month! One-fourth of all the covid infections in
the US during the last year occur over the last 29 days! 16.2 million Americans
have recovered; 61%.
Global coronavirus cases exceed 102.7 million with 2.22
million deaths. 74.4 million global citizens have recovered; 72%. The recovery
percentage for the world is better than the US. On average, anywhere around the
world, if you become sick with covid, you have a 1 in 46 chance of dying and a
3 in 4 chance of recovering within a reasonable amount of time.
Let’s get ‘mathy’ and place some numbers on the herd
immunity goal and the vaccines so everyone can understand the status of this
ongoing pandemic tragedy. You will know the math, and the math will set you
free, stealing off of the famous John 8:31-32 quotation (substitute truth for
math).
Herd immunity is the goal this year. This occurs when the
population has a sufficient number of antibodies to stop the spread of the
virus which will then die out. Doctors and scientists agree that if 70% to 90%
of the population has the antibodies, herd immunity is achieved. The antibodies
are produced either through vaccinations or by people that have already been
infected with covid.
Ranges create confusion when handling numbers and we want to
make this tutorial simple so let’s say herd immunity occurs at 78% and that
number is cast in concrete. This is the goal where herd immunity occurs and we
can all breathe easier. There are 330 million Americans. If 26.5 million cases
exist, 8% of the population has been infected; 1 in every 12 Americans. See,
the math is easy, no worries.
In addition, there are many Americans that have been
infected with covid but do not even realize it (asymptomatic; not having any
symptoms) or the symptoms are very mild and they continue with their daily duties.
Thus, let’s increase that 8% data-backed number by almost twice and say that
15% of Americans have already been stricken with covid and have antibodies.
Just think, if this 15% number was 78%, we would be done
with covid. Alas, it is not, but 15% is going in a good direction and at the
end of this math exercise you can come back and plug in different numbers for
further study.
Thus, we need 78% of Americans to have antibodies to achieve
herd immunity and we are 15% of the way there from people already infected. That
means we need 63% more Americans to be vaccinated to reach our herd immunity
goal. However, from past two-shot vaccine data, we know people sometimes do not
show up for their second shots; let’s call that 10%. Thus, the United States
needs to vaccinate 73% of the population to reach herd immunity, or 240 million
people.
The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines are two-shot
deals. Thus, if 240 million Americans need to be vaccinated to reach herd
immunity, that is 480 million shots. The only way this picture can be
brightened is if the J&J and Novavax vaccines could come to market quickly
to lessen the vaccine supply and distribution problem, or if the number of
infections are underestimated (maybe 20% of Americans have been infected instead
of 15%), or if the virus magically goes away (wishful thinking although many
viruses in history typically burn themselves out in 18 months to 2 years and
this would be the June through December period this year).
Recapping, we need 78% of Americans to have antibodies to
reach herd immunity. 15% of the population already have antibodies due to
exposure to covid. This leaves 63% of the population requiring vaccination,
however, 10% of the patients typically do not come back for the second dose.
Thus, 73% of the US population needs to be vaccinated and that is 240 million
people and 480 million doses.
Now that we know we need 480 million doses of the Pfizer and
Moderna vaccines, let’s compare that to the progress of the vaccination program
and introduce a time element to the herd immunity battle. Come Fall, a new flu
season and likely a new variant of coronavirus, will be slapping America in the
face. Folks are typically vaccinated for regular flu during September and
October so Labor Day, on 9/6/21, is the target date for when the United States
has to be at herd immunity. If we are not at herd immunity when the Christmas
tree is being decorated, then, what’s the point?
Today is Saturday, 1/30/21, so 2 more days in January plus
the other month’s days yields 220 days until Labor Day. We do not want to
directly equate this to the 240 million Americans and 480 million shots needed
since some Americans have already been vaccinated. Thus, the current
vaccination data needs subtracted away from the total numbers.
The Bloomberg Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker Map reports about 91 million
vaccine doses distributed to 62 countries. Almost 29 million shots have been
given in the United States out of the 49 million doses delivered. Thus, 59% of
the supply has been administered. Each state handles the vaccine rollout
differently, because former President Trump did not want to make it a
coordinated national effort, so some states are holding back supply for second
doses and others maintain vaccine supplies for a myriad of other reasons. Staffs
are short and the vaccines are taking longer to administer in these areas.
West Virginia and North Dakota receive the two gold stars
for the most efficient vaccine distribution programs. Seven US states have
vaccinated 10% or more of their population. Everyone has to keep plugging away.
Since 29 million doses are in the bank and we need to
administer 480 million doses, that means 451 million doses are required in
America within 220 days. Thus, the US must administer 2.1 million doses per day
every day until Labor Day when herd immunity can be claimed. As per the map
data, the US is currently at a 1.30 million doses per day rate. You lose,
buckwheat.
Biden had a goal of 100 million doses in 100 days and he was
receiving a lot of heat from the press for setting too low a bar. No one cuts
each other a break anymore. At 1.3 million doses per day, 100 million will be
achieved in 77 days, say, from 1/20/21 so that would be 4/7/21. Biden was
facing an ‘expectations challenge’ but it looks like the press has moved on.
The new goal would be vaccinating 240 million people by
Labor Day either with 480 million Pfizer and Moderna vaccines or 280 million of
the mRNA doses plus 100 million J&J single doses.
1.3 million doses per day does not cut the mustard. If this
rate remains steady for 220 days (to Labor Day) that is 286 million doses (1.3
times 220; the ‘days’ units cancel out), so that is 143 million people (2 doses
per person) that would be vaccinated as the paper plates are placed on the
picnic table for the end of summer party. 143 million vaccinated people will
not produce herd immunity although it will obviously help in defeating the
virus, some day. It is sad news.
Further, the people that are vaccinated are not going to
want to continue wearing masks forever; that will likely be a future squeeze
play. Folks will begin moaning ‘why did I get vaccinated if I still have to
wear a mask all the time?’.
How many days would it take to reach herd immunity at the current
rate of 1.3 million doses per day? 451 million more doses are needed (480
million doses total minus the 29 million doses administered) to reach herd
immunity so this is 347 days (451 divided by 1.3; the ‘millions’ units cancel
out and the ‘day’ unit flips up to the numerator), let’s just call it 1 year.
At the current vaccine dosage rate in the US, herd immunity would not be
achieved until January 2022 and this would be as the new flu and new China Flu
seasons are well underway. The pandemic is a mess. It is sad news.
The only way to remedy the situation is to line up more
supply and increase the vaccination rate, however, the rest of the world is in
the same predicament. The filthy CCP screwed us all. There are about 300
million mRNA doses lined up for the US over the coming months. In addition,
over the last day, J&J has agreed to provide 100 million doses by June.
That takes us where we need to be so at least there is a plan forward.
The J&J vaccine is one dose so that will take care of
100 million people and the 300 million two-shot mRNA vaccine stockpile will
take care of 150 million people which totals 250 million Americans. Now the
public has to be educated to want to be jabbed. J&J board member McClellan,
that used to work for the FDA, provides the good news about the J&J
vaccine. The medical professionals are no doubt counting on other vaccines to
be approved to help close the gap and make the Labor Day herd immunity goal
possible. Right now, it is not. A lot has to go right.
The easiest vaccinations are occurring now. The healthcare
professionals, doctors, nurses and medics are always around hospitals so it
easy to jab them. The nursing home folks are captive so they can be stuck easy
enough. On a Sunday afternoon, Keystone locks their wheelchairs in place
forcing them to suffer through his off-key renditions of Sweet Caroline and
Suspicious Minds.
The seniors cannot run far either; they are easy to jab. Some
seniors are knocking down the door to get their vaccination so it does not get
any easier than folks enthusiastically running to the jab sites with sleeves
rolled-up.
However, then the hard part begins to vaccinate the
remaining population. People will need educated on the safety of the vaccines
to encourage them to sign-up, especially folks of color. The poor people in
rural areas like Appalachia will need vaccinated. The homeless. And the
anti-vaxxer crowd will continue stirring the pot. And the side effects will
need to remain minor to convince people to take the shot. The vaccine supplies,
deliveries and shots will all have to be delivered flawlessly.
In 7 months, the US has to administer 451 million doses of
the mRNA vaccine (if J&J is not ready) and is currently administering 39
million doses per month. Quick, someone get on the horn to J&J and tell
them that the whole success of America’s quest for herd immunity completely
rests on their shoulders.
Each day that the 2.1 million doses per day jab rate is not
attained, the number increases. The US is going to start getting squeezed into
the Labor Day herd immunity goal date. For example, say the current dose rate
continues for a month and say 39 million more people are vaccinated. Thus, 451
minus 39 is 412 million doses that would still be needed and now the time frame
is March to Labor Day which is 190 days. Thus, if the current rate of
vaccinations remains steady for the next month, and we are starting into the
month of March, the US would need to be at a vaccination rate of 2.2 million
doses per day 412 divided by 190). The number will be squeezed higher and
higher each day that goes by that the 2 million doses plus per day is not
achieved.
The road does not get easier folks. Herd immunity appears
unlikely this year due to the simple math. If the new strains wreak havoc,
we’re really screwed. As if the numbers not adding up is not bad enough (for
the herd immunity goal), there remains the anti-vaxxer’s. Polls continue to
fluctuate but only 50% to 65% of Americans are willing to take the vaccine.
Polls are funny, however, since it depends on how the question is framed. Also,
some people that are not a fan of the mRNA vaccines may be open to the
traditional vaccines and visa versa. If the side effects remain minimal, others
will jump on the vaccine bandwagon.
If we say that 65% of Americans are willing to take the
vaccine, that is 215 million people. It would actually get America very close
to herd immunity but this is hitting a homerun with the confidence game. After
a few weeks of experience with the vaccines, doctors are recommending that
pregnant women do not get the vaccine.
There have been a few deaths shortly after the vaccines were
administered but these folks were very old, and elderly, so there may have been
other issues occurring. An elderly gentleman killed over after taking the
vaccine. An Ohio woman, only 39 years young, died after receiving the vaccine.
A nursing home resident was found dead shortly after she was given a shot. Many
people vaccinated experience little or no symptoms (or they tell you that since
they are healthcare professionals that want you to get vaccinated) but there
are folks that have become very sick for a couple days after the second shot.
All the negative talk aside, putting it in perspective, in
the US, 29 million doses have been administered. A couple million people have
had their two doses so let’s say about 27 million people were jabbed at least
once with the vaccine. The negative cases appear miniscule compared to the
millions of people vaccinated. Of course, any death is tragic and illnesses are
nothing to write home about, but the vaccines appear to be tolerated well by
humans.
A freezer fails in Seattle. 1,300 vaccine doses will spoil.
Americans spring into action and make sure the vaccine is all used up and
nothing is wasted so the story has a happy ending. Likewise, a blizzard
sidelines vehicles for hours on a wintry highway jeopardizing the longevity of
several vials of vaccine so the healthcare workers proceed to walk along the
row of vehicles and provide shots to those that wanted them again saving and
using-up all the precious vaccine.
Johnson & Johnson releases data over the last day
showing 66% overall efficacy for its vaccine and 72% for the US. This is good
news and on par with the regular flu vaccine each year. Folks may be
disappointed however, comparing it to the 95% effectiveness of the mRNA
vaccines (after the second shot is received). The J&J vaccine is 85%
effective in protecting people against severe coronavirus illness. That is
excellent news and the vaccine is effective against the new South Africa
strain. Also, there are trial studies ongoing with two doses of the J&J
vaccine which may lead to a 90% plus efficacy.
Remember, the medical professionals would have been happy
with 50% effectiveness for any vaccine a few months ago. The Johnny John (what
the pit traders call the JNJ stock) vaccine has the advantage that it can be
distributed easier, and in larger supplies and stored in a regular
refrigerator. Perhaps the J&J vaccine can begin lessening the load on the
mRNA vaccines come April.
Novavax releases encouraging news on its vaccine that is 89%
effective. Wowza. This is great news although the vaccine is only about 50%
effective against the South Africa strain. The AstraZeneca and other vaccines
and treatments are also in the works. The EU (European Union) approves the
Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine for emergency use in Europe.
The EU fires the first shot at the UK in the global vaccine
nationalism wars. AstraZeneca is a British-Swedish pharma company that told the
EU it will not be able to meet its promised vaccine deliveries by March due to
production delays, however, the UK continues receiving their vaccine supplies
without interruption. The tiff creates a split and animosity between UK and
European leaders which is not hard with the Brexit wound still bleeding.
Europe, the continent always lecturing everyone on worldwide equality and
openness is mired in a vaccine nationalism battle.
The rich countries are buying up all available vaccine supplies sending the poor to the back of the line. The low and middle income countries will not see vaccines until 2022; that's the honest truth that no one else will say. The poor are always screwed. COVAX is the global organization that helps the poorer nations secure vaccines but they cannot do too much. Some doctors and scientists say the richer nations should preferentially help the poorer nations because if a country turns inward and protects itself, the virus continues mutating elsewhere, then in the future, the country can become sick all over again. Humans will have to learn how to be cooperative and compassionate with one another.
Nationalism, or protectionism, exacerbated the Great
Depression. After the Great Crash in 1929, countries turned inward and started
protecting their own turf cutting off trade and becoming more isolated from one
another. Everyone slit each other’s throat in the battle to the bottom which
created the 1930’s depression. Nothing good happens when neighbors begin
fighting and slitting each other’s throats and closing off ties with other nations. Vaccine Nationalism has arrived.
Anecdotal stories are surfacing at how some wealthy individuals are receiving
the vaccine out of turn; of course they are.
Two wealthy Canadians flew a small plane to a remote indigenous
people’s town to pose as villagers and receive the vaccine. That is shameful.
Their human greed is on full display for all to see. The Canadian government is
determining how to handle the situation. The elite ruling class lives by a
different set of rules than the huddled masses. The greedy wealthy want to save
their butts and are willing to push Grandma under the bus. What has society
become?
On the other side of the nut spectrum, you have the
anti-vaccine folks that descend upon a COVID-19 vaccination site at Dodger
Stadium causing a commotion. The anti-vaxxer’s halt the vaccinations for about
an hour. The cops arrive. No arrests are made. You can think any way you want
but do not push your beliefs on others that way. One doofus wore a grim reaper
costume and told everyone they are ‘lab rats’. The crowd was anti-mask as well.
The natives are getting restless.
The original strain of coronavirus is called D614G. The UK
variant is B117. The South Africa variant is 501YV2 and now referred to as
B1351. The Brazil variant is B11248 and P1 and P2. These are the three key variants, however, the first variant mutation was actually in Denmark, which resulted in the culling of $17 million minks. To ease readability in the
articles, the B117, B1351 and B11248 identifiers will be referenced. A couple media outlets are referring to the Brazilian strain as P1. These are
simple tag numbers so reference the medical white papers if you want to study
the variants in scientific detail.
The US ranks 42nd in the world in sequencing the variants.
That is absolutely shameful. Pitiful. Where’s Joey? Bueller? Donnie cannot be
blamed anymore. Sleepy Joe Biden is on the clock now. Let’s go Joe. Chop-chop. America
is inundated with the new strains but how will you ever know without performing
the sequencing tests and DNA surveillance?!
In the US, 434 cases of the new UK B117 strain is found in 30
states. The South Africa B1351 strain appears in South Carolina with 2 cases
and Maryland with 1 case. Just when the US thought things may be improving and
the country may be finally rounding the corner, we may actually be driving
head-on into a Mack truck hauling variants.
Vaccine and negative-test passports are being discussed more
by global governments. President Biden is imposing mandatory mask wearing on
public transportation and requiring travelers provide proof of a negative test
for covid within three days of flying. It will create hassles for travelers but
at the same time the safety measures may lure people back to the airlines and
hotels.
It will be a dark and fateful day in America if vaccines are
made mandatory for travelers or to gain access to buildings or venues. Many
employers already force workers to take vaccines. The Mark of the Beast. That
would be the bridge too far.
Keep taking zinc and vitamin D-3 which boosts your immune
system and may help prevent the onset of the virus. Vitamins A and C are also
helpful and turmeric. All of these are great to take regardless of covid but
you can check with doc to make sure. The best prevention is to simply stay as
far away as possible from people; this is a better philosophy than the 6 foot
(2 m) guideline.
Remember at the start of the pandemic mess the medical
guru’s said no one needed a mask—as everyone watched doctors and nurses dressed
in hazmat suits handling patients! Once everyone realized that officials were
simply trying to save masks for the healthcare people, Americans felt slighted
and played for suckers. If Americans would have been told the truth in the
beginning, everyone would have bandied together to help. Very few jackasses
would have hoarded masks. Instead, trust was damaged from the beginning and the
confusing and chaotic, sometimes contradictory, handling of the pandemic ever
since has left the common person believing they are on their own to figure
things out.
So no masks went to one mask then there was all the talk
about multiple masks and what mask is best. WHO said early on to maintain a 3
feet (1 m) social distance then that was changed to 6 feet (2 m) while the
Wuhan region was maintaining 12 feet (4 m). Stay physically away from people;
that is the key thing to do. Most of all, rely on your common sense since the
officials have everyone running off in different directions.
Dr Fauci suggests wearing two cloth masks since that may
help more against the new strains. Come on now. You have to laugh out loud.
Everyone is just making stuff up as they go along. It is ridiculous. The media
calls Fauci out on this double-mask stuff and he retreats back to one mask. You
put your right foot in, you put your right foot out, you put your mask on, you take your mask off, you put your left arm in,
and shake it all about, you do the Hokey Pokey, and you turn yourself around,
now everyone’s a covid clown. The pandemic is a mess. God bless the healthcare
workers, doc’s, nurses and medics; all of you are handling some serious stuff
in life now, as you know.
The bamlanivimab drug is proven helpful in slightly reducing
nursing home deaths but only in the case of serious illness. Nonetheless it is
anther tool like the intravenous regeneron treatment, which is effective
against the new strains.
China is investigating anal swabs as a covid testing method
that may be able to detect the virus for a longer period of time than other
methods. The patient is goosed with a swab and the lab analyzes the sample.
This testing method will become the butt of many jokes.
Hand sanitizer is a concern. 900 Americans have become
poisoned by hand sanitizer. There is wood alcohol, metals and other nasties
inside some of the cheap no-name brands. Be very careful at what hand sanitizer
you buy.
New York state releases updated numbers on the pandemic. The
nursing home deaths are far higher than originally reported. Earlier on in the
pandemic, Governor Cuomo sent sick patients back to nursing homes which
resulted in a big increase in infections and deaths among other seniors as well
as staff. It was a stupid decision although he was in the heat of battle. At
the time, Cuomo said the numbers were small 3K to 6K. Cuomo’s detractors said
the deaths were in the 12K to 15K range. Keystone had thought the deaths were
in the 6K to 9K area. The number comes in at 8,700 (see how each political
tribe tried to pull numbers in their favor).
Cuomo succeeded in sweeping the scandal under the rug, it
helps that bro is on CNN, and he wrote a book telling the world how great he
handled the pandemic. Fast forward a few months and the pandemic is at its
worst again with Cuomo defending himself over the higher death numbers. Cuomo
says the other guy did it. He says he was only following the guidance from the
federal government. Keystone used to tell the teachers that Pete (a beagle) ate
his homework but they never believed him. Cuomo needs to look in his book to
find out how to handle the pandemic. If he needs a copy, Keystone will lend him
his, it is under the kitchen table leg, it is being used to level the table.
New York health officials are resigning from their jobs in protest to the way Cuomo handled the pandemic. The number of covid deaths were underreported and the real data is released over the last few days. The liberal-leaning news outlets shield Cuomo from the backlash by only covering the story in passing.
WHO is in China investigating the origins of the virus.
Yeah, sure they are. A trip to Wuhan is probably a sex vacation. WHO says, “(It
is) too early to tell exactly where the virus started.” It is hard to find out
where it began if you are in the hotel dining room porking-out on the free
buffet while pinching the waitresses’ behind. The filthy CCP funds the WHO. Are
you going to bite the hand that feeds you? What if your boss asked you to
critique him/her? Are you going to be truthful and tell them they are a dirty
rotten scoundrel? Of course not. It is a dog and pony show.
The WHO show in China is actually worse than that. They play
the world for suckers. One year after the virus began and a team is finally
allowed into their filthy communist city? Come on now. Do you actually trust or
believe anything China tells you? The Wuhan lab workers were sick in the Fall
of 2019! The CCP not only screws the world but their own Chinese people. The
CCP and WHO are coconspirators early on in the pandemic that allowed China to
secure all the existing PPE inventories in the world.
Dirtbag Dictator Xi provided the keynote speech at the Davos
World Economic Forum so do you see the trilogy or are you dumb? The CCP, WHO
and WEF comingle on red satin sheets. Do not expect any news from WHO. If there
is news, it will only be something that the CCP is allowing them to say.
It is about one year since the lockdown in Wuhan that lasted
76 days and impacted 11 million Chinese folks. The Chinese live under the rule
of the CCP so when the communist government says lockdown and stay inside, they
mean it. If you test them, you will look funny with that bullet hole in your
head. In the Western nations, sure, we lockdown, but it is ‘lockdown light’
where you sneak down the road to hug and kiss your darling, or stop at a friend’s
house to smoke a bowl or get together in that out of the way basement party
once each week. Americans are sneaking through neighborhood yards like the
milkman in the 1960’s. Back then, coincidentally, several local families had
one child that did not look like either parent or the siblings but did look
like Harry the milkman. He was always smiling as he tapped on those back doors.
Face masks are no longer required in Wuhan but most people
continue wearing one. They probably do not want to get into trouble with the
government. The Wuhan wounds have not healed. Local officials did not do enough
to help the sick people. Lots of Chinese are devastated over how their loved
ones died. The government did not care. They have to watch what they say but a
few do not care anymore because they have nothing to lose once they lost their
loved ones. The CCP will permanently muzzle their voices.
The good news with the charts continues. Keep your fingers
crossed. The wild card is the variant strains. The mutant strains may spoil the
path forward for the United States which is on its way towards improving.
For the US active cases chart, the positive news from the
last article continues. What do you see immediately in the active cases chart?
Yes, it is starting to want to flatten. The first little bump in that chart is
9.87 million on 1/24/21. Today’s number, 1/30/21, is 9.88 million. Rats. The
active cases curve sneaks ever so slightly higher still yet. We need the curve
to flatten and then roll over lower to create the bell shape and verify that
the virus is defeated.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations prone to follow the rules, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 11 days after the peak in new cases. China, Japan and South Korea are
in this group. Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered
across the countryside.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the free societies, or at least they are more free than most other
nations, the active cases curve will peak, on average, 28 days after the peak
in new cases. The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last year in
predicting when the curve flattens and the bell shape begins to appear to
ring-in the end to the coronavirus.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer or Johns-Hopkins. The Keystone Model,
however, considers any subsequent high in daily new cases that is within 8% of
the peak high, becomes the peak new case date from which the 11 or 28-day
period begins. This is why the daily new case peak date may be a few days after
the peak high in the bar chart. Now that this is all clear as mud, let’s review
the US daily new cases and active cases charts.
The US daily new cases may have peaked on 1/8/21 at 308,035 cases.
Praise the Lord, if that is your bag, that this peak has held. This is the best
news of the pandemic since late last summer when we hoped that the virus would
be defeated; it was not and the active cases curve catapulted higher. The US
daily new cases peak holding is better news than the vaccines because the way
the Keystone Kops rolled out the vaccination mess around the world, the virus
may burn itself out by the time herd immunity is ever achieved.
Adding 28 days to 1/8/21 is 2/5/21 as the target date for
the US active cases curve to flatten and potentially begin rolling over to form
the bell shape and prove the virus is smashed. As mentioned above, the active
cases curve is trying its best to flatten right now. Keep your fingers crossed
that the active cases will not exceed 9.88 million going forward and we have it
licked.
The 7-day moving average (a smoothing mechanism for the data
that helps you identify the trend) on the US daily new cases chart is dropping
like a rock. Fantastico! In fact, the 7-day MA is the lowest it has been since
11/16/20; over 2 months ago! Go ahead, feel free to give that a golf clap.
Maybe the data is helped by people receiving the vaccine,
even only one shot? Every little bit helps. America has to get its old can-do
attitude back. The chaotic handling of the pandemic mess over the last year has
left many people confused and wandering the desert.
America has to remain diligent for a couple more weeks and
there will be great news ahead. However, the caveat is the new strains now
slapping at American shores. If the new strains were not a factor, the US
should be extremely happy about the direction of the charts which are looking
the best they have in four months. All we can do is wait and see what kind of
damage the UK, South Africa and Brazil variants are planning.
The US daily new cases must not exceed 283K (8% below the
peak 308K) cases; if it does, it tells you that pain and misery is ahead.
Today’s daily new cases are 141K. Let’s keep them down there and heading lower.
The Superbowl (NFL Championship; American football) is 2/7/21 in the evening so small groups may gather but it should not be a superspreader event. Easter is 4/4/21 which will be a party weekend but Americans
should be well-behaved until then as the winter season continues in the
northern hemisphere. More good news. Spring will be coming and warmer weather
so the April through September heat will help keep COVID-19 at bay. Folks will
not be couped-up inside breathing each other’s germs.
Coronavirus is a very tiny light-weight particle. It typically
piggy-backs on dust or water vapor particles in the air. In more humid air, the
virus particles will drop out quicker but in the dry, heated air inside buildings,
the nasty covid particles tend to linger longer increasing the chance that you
will breathe them in.
Valentine’s Day is on 2/14/21 but it is a honey holiday,
like New Year’s, a one-on-one day with your significant other, so folks are
staying home and it should not result in any big spike in new daily cases.
Easter likely will create a spike in cases in late April and early May. Also,
as the school and college year ends, even if much of the learning was at-home,
students may do a lot of partying together in May that may create a bump higher
in cases.
The US daily deaths chart is shown above with the deadliest day
on 1/12/21 at 4,483 deaths. The 7-day moving average is moving sideways, which
is a good thing, although we want it to roll over and drop like a stone.
January is the deadliest month of the pandemic with about 95K deaths and
counting. With a day or so remaining in the month, at least the grim 100K level
should be avoided.
Over 450K Americans have succumbed to covid which is 0.14%
of the 330 million population. 1 in every 733 Americans have died from coronavirus
over the last year.
The IHME predicts that 509K Americans will be dead by 3/1/21
and 595K dead by 5/1/21. The half-million mark is a grim milestone. All this
occurs as Donnie Trump tells the towel-folding housekeeper at Mar-a-Lago that
he won the election. May Day will be a sad day as the Rolling Stones sing, “Iwon’t forget to put roses on your grave.”
US coronavirus hospitalizations are at 97,561 well off thepeak of 132K on 1/6/21. This is worthy of a hip, hip, hooray, cheer. That is
not small potatoes to be at 34K less hospitalizations over the last 3-1/2
weeks. It is a 26% decrease. Excellent. Let’s keep it moving lower. A goal
would be to reduce hospitalizations down to 60K and lower since that represents
the peak of the first two waves in April and July. You have permission to throw
confetti when hospitalizations go sub 60K.
This coronavirus article #32 is the most positive outlook
for the pandemic in quite some time although the new variants are nestled in
those dark clouds forming above.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world at 26.7 million followed by India (10.7 million), Brazil (9.2), Russia
(3.9), UK (3.8), France (3.2), Spain (2.8), Turkey (2.5), Italy (2.5), Germany (2.2), Colombia
(2.1), Argentina (1.9), Mexico (1.9), Poland (1.5), Iran (1.4), South Africa
(1.4), Ukraine (1.2), Peru (1.1), Indonesia (1.1), Czechia (985K), Netherlands
(975K), Canada (775K), Romania (729K), Belgium (708K), Chile (723K), Iraq (620K),
Sweden (567K), Pakistan (545K), Bangladesh (535K) and Philippines (525K).
Spain jumps two slots higher which is a bad thing. Italy and
Czechia are also worsening. Canada’s cases pop about 12% over the last dozen
days. Sweden and Pakistan leapfrog Bangladesh. Indonesia is the latest addition
to the million cases club now 19 members strong. Czechia will be number 20.
In total deaths, USA is number one with over 450K dead on
the way to a half-million. China will have to pay for their nefarious deed. Brazil
has 224K dead. Mexico is now number three at 158K. That is a shame. Maybe the
new variant has been at the southern border the whole time? If the USA has one
of the poorest variant sequencing programs, then Mexico must not test for
variants at all. This would be a good question for the experts.
India has 154K dead. The UK, Italy, France, Russia, Spain
and Iran make up the top 10 worst nations for covid deaths. Spain leapfrogs
Iran. Germany is number 11. As highlighted in the last article, Spain and
Portugal are hot zones and Europe would be wise to pay close attention to what
is going on there. The UK B117 variant is likely attacking their shores
(western Europe)..
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, actually 13 days this time, and more data and information
become available to push the story forward.
This is Article 32 in K E Stone’s (The Keystone Speculator) coronavirus
series of articles that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This thirty-second article is published on Saturday,
1/30/21.
Keystone’s covid articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during
2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair.
All 32 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog
and will likely be pulled together in the future to provide the pandemic
history chronicled in real-time. The last few articles are linked here if you
want to review the pandemic saga over the last month.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a couple or few days.
The COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data
available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail.
The 25 nations on the list below are experiencing the worst pandemic
outbreaks currently (based on the data which nations may or may not be
reporting truthfully) and are the worst global hotspots. The data is helpful in
identifying broad regions that are experiencing outbreaks.
The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks in active cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of
the active cases curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The
pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the list the hardest.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. South Korea and Japan are
back in good graces after defeating the latest waves which were difficult.
The vaccination program is not going well around the world
except for a few select nations. Israel, a population of only 9 million, is
doing well having vaccinated nearly 50% of the population.
Lebanon hospitalizations are overwhelmed and out of
ventilators. Doctors are having to choose between who lives, and who dies. If
you have one breathing apparatus but two patients need it, unfortunately,
humbly, sadly, you have to play God that day, and then move forward no matter
what happens. Many third world nations
are facing these decisions daily as supplies are extremely limited.
Japan has beaten back its nasty third wave. It was looking
bleak there. The Japan Olympics is pushing forward in a reduced capacity. The
torch will be lit on 7/23/21. Hopefully, it is not a funeral pyre, as The Doors
would sing.
Brazil hospitals are overcrowded. Two-thirds of Brazil’s new
infections are the variant B1351. Brazil is stacking bodies in the cemeteries
and freezer trucks are being used as makeshift morgues. People cannot get care
so they lay sick at home. Bolsonaro’s government remains defiant with the virus
following the losing Trump playbook. Ignoring the pandemic makes it worse.
Brazilians say the government is non-responsive to the pandemic.
Canada is imposing a three-day quarantine period for
travelers and suspending travel to Mexico and the Caribbean for three months.
Hawaiian shirts, Bermuda shorts and drinks with umbrellas are hereby outlawed
and stripped away from the Canucks that are left freezing in the cold.
Peru is back in the covid pickle barrel. Its daily new cases
are starting to jump higher. A third wave is trying to get underway for Peru and
that will be known over the coming days.
After many months, Russia finally rolls its active cases
curve over to the downside. Interestingly, it is as if the virus is deciding
when it will pulse higher or lower. With nations gravely stricken with covid,
the daily new cases and active cases charts simply roll over on their own
volition.
Perhaps the end of the pandemic occurs when the virus
decides to dissipate and move on or die and the endeavors by us mortal humans
will be of little consequence. The earth threw all the military might possible
at the aliens in the War of the Worlds saga but what saved humanity in the end
was the aliens dying from an earthly virus. Perhaps coronavirus will wake up
one day and decide to simply fade away and die, as has many viruses in the
past.
Belgium (Second Wave) (there are
issues with the data; numbers likely higher)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
12/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
(conditions improving)
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
12/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (conditions improving but a nasty spike in deaths occur
today)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve remains elevated)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever at 308K!!!)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 1/15 and 1/16/21)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 1/15 and 1/16/21)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
(curve has rolled over)
Ecuador (Third Wave)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave are in January)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/22/21 New Case Peak Date
2/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Nigeria
(Second Wave)
1/22/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
2/19/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
1/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
2/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/28/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/29/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever the last few days)
2/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/29/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave 1/15 and 1/30/21)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
France requires a heads-up. Paging President Macron. Check out France’s active cases chart. Your pandemic is worsening and France is likely headed for trouble over the next couple weeks. Switzerland data went whacky with active cases catapulting higher; there may be a problem here.
Bahrain is a nasty chart; they are getting smacked hard by
covid right now. Conditions in UAE worsen as well although some folks give them
good grades on their vaccination program. A new outbreak may be starting in the
Middle East. Watch Bahrain and UAE.
The list indicates western Europe, western South America,
North America and selective Pacific Islands are the hotspots. Malaysia and
Indonesia are in bad shape with the coronavirus raging out of control in a big
way. The Philippines looks dicey and may find themselves in covid Hell in a few
days. Bolivia is going downhill.
The troubled US states are highlighted below with their
projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on
healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. 27 US states have failed to
flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to suffer a new wave higher again. The picture is much brighter than
the last four months.
Missouri (problematic data)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (curve finally flattening)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever occur in November and early December)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (curve flattening and rolling over)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases beginning to rise again)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve starting to flatten)
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher trying to flatten)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (wow; curve starting to flatten; this is a big deal)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/21 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (chart continues higher)
12/28/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/5/20 and 1/2/21)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (wow; curve starting to flatten; this is a big deal)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 8/31/20, 9/2/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/1, 1/7 and 1/8/21)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4/20 and 1/9/21)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/7 and 1/9/21)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (data is choppy and messy)
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flattening but super choppy)
1/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (wow; curve starting to flatten; this is a big deal)
1/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
South Carolina (Third Wave)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 12/27/20 and 1/16/21)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/17/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
As the notes proclaim above, wow! California, Texas and New Jersey active cases curves are finally flattening and potentially rolling over to form the bell shape. This is a big deal. This is unbelievably good news after months of misery. If the new variants smack us, it will be demoralizing, because we do have the bastard on the run now.
Alas, Cuomo’s New York shows an active cases curve that
climbs higher and higher not yet wanting to flatten but fingers are crossed.
The Keystone Model projects 2/12/21 for New York’s flattening and that is only
2 weeks away. Also, with the improving picture across the US, this hints that
the top may come sooner so if New York can hang in there into mid-February,
they will likely be pleased with the way things are going then.
Despite the encouraging signs, with covid, something is
always hiding in the bushes ready to smack you in the face. South Carolina
still does not look good. The UK B117 strain is there so this state must be
monitored very closely. Virginia’s active cases curve is ramping strongly
higher and Maryland also requires watching. This may be signs of the new
variant starting to bite.
If folks remain vigilant and stay away from each other in
February, variant or not, the US can continue in the right direction. Everyone
has to get motivated to want to destroy the pandemic. The missing link to the
whole thing is the lack of leadership. The entire world is suffering from a
dearth of leadership. We all must summon our inner Bluto (John Belushi) from
Animal House to defeat the virus. Are you with me?!! Let’s go! Let’s do it!
One ace in the hole with the pandemic is that more people in
the United States may have been stricken than known. In the math example above,
8% of the US is verified to have covid and we doubled that to 15% for the
calculations. But what if 30% of Americans have already had covid over the last
year most not realizing it since the disease is asymptomatic for many.
Further, perhaps those folks walking around all these months
infected others and the virus is running its course now. Keep fingers crossed
because if things remain steady, America will be on to better covid days ahead.
The economy is screwed and the stock market is topping out this year more than
likely but at least everyone may enjoy better health, which is all that
matters, later this year.
Watch the US daily case numbers. If the daily new cases
remain below 283K (within 8% of the 308K record high in daily new cases) from
here on out, the active cases chart will keep flattening and roll over to the
downside. If, however, the US daily new cases exceed 283K any day forward,
America is screwed and 2021 will look exactly like 2020 did.
This article is the most positive outlook for the
coronavirus saga in a long time. The only wild card is the variant strains so
time will tell. Remember, stay away from people. Take zinc and vitamin D-3
daily.
Make sure the US active cases curve above keeps flattening
and rolling over and it will be time to celebrate. Ditto for the California, Texas
and New Jersey active cases charts. These are big states and if the curve is
flattening and rolling over that is excellent news. Watch New York to see if it
flattens which will be another excellent sign that things are looking up. While your eyes are to the sky enjoying the rainbows and sunshine, make sure you do not step in any of
that variant dog sh*t on the front lawn.
Note Added Sunday, 1/31/21: A snowstorm moves up the Eastern Seaboard. Pennsylvania is hit with snow and the storm will be far worse for Washington, DC, New York, New Jersey and Boston. The vaccine distribution centers are paring down operations for a couple days due to the snowstorm. There is no reason to die in an auto accident on icy roads, wrapping yourself around a pole, just because you wanted to receive the vaccine. In this example, the vaccine would have killed you. As the math explains above, each day the US is not performing over 2 million jabs per day, is another day that the Labor Day goal of herd immunity seems unlikely. The virus does not care about snow, in fact, it is happy to see snow since that means people will be cramped inside houses and buildings, coughing and sneezing on each other. Coronavirus would be in heaven. January is officially the worst month of the pandemic worse than December. 97,917 Americans died in January. That is tragic and a lot of families are negatively impacted forever.
Note Added Monday, 2/1/21: The snowstorm spanks the East Coast so business and commerce is slowed. Vaccination schedules are pushed forward a day or two after the storm clears. 10 Senate republicans meet with President Biden on the fiscal stimulus bill. This group of republicans are only offering about $600 billion versus Biden's $1.9 trillion package but at least there is a chance at compromise and getting money out to poor people. The EU took the first shot in the vaccine nationalization wars lobbing words at the UK. The UK responds today and makes an attempt to take the high road. UK Health Secretary Hancock proclaims that "every UK citizen" needs protected as fast as possible. He decrees that the vaccination program is a "global effort" and is proud that the UK has robust supplies while also saying the world's poor will have access to the AstraZeneca vaccine at minimal cost. All that fancy college talk is fine and dandy, but it sounds like the UK is forging ahead with their vaccine program shoving as many vials into their pockets as possible while opining about the world's 'little people'. The vaccine nationalization is infecting each nation one by one. The variant fears are internalizing nations and planting the seeds of protectionism. The world should be working together but for that you need a leader up to the job. At last check, Churchill and Roosevelt are laying in their caskets. Few rise to greatness.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 2/2/21: Pfizer commits to providing 200 million vaccine doses by May; this would vaccinate 100 million people and help the USA achieve its herd immunity goal. CNBC reports that the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) says a slow pace of recovery is ahead. The travel industry says a coordinated vaccination campaign is needed to help create a speedy return to normalcy. GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS CASES CROSS 104 MILLION. THE CHINA FLU HAS KILLED 2.25 MILLION PEOPLE ON EARTH. WHO receives a government tour of the animal market in Wuhan where it is believed that the virus may have first spread a year ago. The CCP are filthy liars so you cannot trust anything China says. One year later, the area is squeaky clean and disinfected but a WHO person proclaims that they are hot on the trail to finding the origin of the virus. What a joke. WHO lays in bed with the CCP so they will only report what the communists tell them to report. The USA is a whisker from 27 million covid cases. 454,289 Americans are dead from coronavirus. Nearly 33 million doses have been given in the USA at a rate of 1.34 million doses per day. The media is advertising the fact that vaccinations now surpass the total Americans infected with covid which is a great statistic to pump people up and keep them positive. The rate, however, has to come up to reach the summer herd immunity goal. The healthcare folks are doing the best they can. Americans should let them do their thing and hope for the best. 66% of the shots delivered have been administered. There is a push now to vaccinate as many folks as possible with one jab since the supplies will be there for the second shot. There is a race between vaccinations and the spread of the variants. Come March and April we will know who won. It is believed that if the maximum number of folks receive one shot using up all the doses possible, this will help slow the spread of the nasty UK, South Africa and Brazil strains. On a lighter note, a video from China goes viral showing several citizens waddling like penguins after receiving an anal swab under a new program. The CCP refutes the video calling it fake but halts the anal swab test program for now. China tells its citizens they will not waddle like a penguin if they receive an anal swab test. Those folks were goosed.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 2/2/21: Fauci is concerned about the variants reinfecting people that had the original virus. For the most part, antibodies are useful in fighting back the new variants, however, disturbing data is developing from South Africa. There are many cases where South Africans that were infected with the virus are now becoming sick again with the new variant. This is terrible news and it is understandable why Fauci is worried. Conditions in Japan are improving and they are dead-set on forging ahead with the Olympics. The problem is that hospitalizations remain at record levels. The data does not match what is happening on the ground. Of course it does not. Japan is notorious for lying and fudging when it comes to data. Did you know that every engineer and manager over 55 years old that worked at the Fukishima nuclear plant at the time of the accident is dead? The government directs Japanese doctors to report the deaths as other ailments so the nuclear industry does not receive bad press. The deaths are not radiation poisoning but instead listed as throat cancer and other illnesses. Every government on earth is corrupt in one way or another. Japan is likely playing around with their coronavirus numbers. Sadly, over 100K Americans are already dead this year from covid; in only 32 days.
Note Added Wednesday, 2/3/21: The day begins with positive news setting the variant problem to one side. The AstraZeneca vaccine is over 80% effective a few weeks after the shot. The vaccinations appear to be making a difference. President Biden plans on shipping vaccine directly to the pharmacies where the shots can be administered. This will simplify logistics. West Virginia has great success with their vaccination program and has heavily relied on its pharmacies so the government is implementing ideas that work which is smart. Find out the things that worked in the different states and try to adopt them on a national level (unless the state wants to sick with the ongoing vaccination program; let them continue on that path do not make them change direction; some states need guidance with the vaccination logistics). Doctors and scientists say that people that have had the virus can receive future protection from covid with only one vaccination shot. They are making this stuff up as they go along folks. It is odd to discuss this topic since the doctors told everyone that folks that had covid would have antibody protection. Now they are talking about vaccinating these folks (scientists may be worried about the South Africa variant reinfecting people). It is not practical to try and ration the vaccine for this purpose because people would have to take antibody tests, to assess their susceptibility to catching the virus again, before each shot. The pandemic is a tough nut to crack. The variants are hiding in the bushes. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announces a partnership with Cure-Vac, a German biotech company, to manufacture and develop new mRNA vaccines. The companies have actually been working together for many months. The more the merrier for those that want to take the vaccines. Cure-Vac CEO Franz-Werner Haas is concerned about vaccine nationalism. The mRNA vaccines require 'starting material' and these starting materials and supplies are provided by different companies (countries) all around the world. Countries will need to cooperate with one another and not limiting supplies of one starting material or another. It was great to finalize the mRNA vaccines and approve them for public use, however, the next big step is scaling up the commercial production of the messenger RNA vaccines. This is the bottleneck and hurdle currently. Haas proclaims, "The world is a global village." He is concerned that the global starting materials needed for vaccine production and development may become political. New vaccines will be needed for new variants.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 2/4/21: NYC Health Commissioner Dave Chokshi tests positive for covid and is experiencing mild symptoms. The UK is initiating a study to determine the efficacy of using the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines interchangeably. The scientists likely want to know which vaccine is better, if either, against the new variants so production plans can be adjusted as needed. The doctors and scientists are up against the Labor Day drop-dead date to achieve herd immunity. If either mRNA vaccine can be given for a second shot, that will help vaccinate more people faster. The clock is running folks. We are already in February. The new flu season and new covid strain season is after Labor Day. The pressure mounts. There is 214 days remaining to reach herd immunity, after which, it does not matter, since people will be getting sick left and right into the holidays. The Bloomberg vaccine tracker says 35 million doses are given at a current rate of 1.34 million doses per day. The winter weather is not helping. As per the math above, 480 million doses of the mRNA vaccines are needed to vaccinate 240 million Americans and reach herd immunity when also factoring in the folks already sick. Taking away 35 million is 445 million more shots needed in 214 days which is 2.1 million doses per day. We are not even close. At 1.34 million dose rate, after 214 days pass, and we are in early September, 287 million doses would have been given which is 144 million people which is not good enough for herd immunity. The achievement of herd immunity in America rests on J&J's thin medical shoulders. Is Johnny John strong enough to be the margin player and carry the United States to victory well before the calendar reaches 9/6/21? The current data (current knowns) shows that only 140 to 150 million people will be vaccinated come Labor Day, adding in about 40 million that would be sick, is about 200 million Americans with antibodies come 9/6/21. There are 330 million Americans so 130 million people would still be susceptible to COVID-19 and its variants going into the Fall season. These numbers do not cut the mustard. More vaccines and faster distribution is needed but that is easy for everyone to say punching a keyboard as compared to the healthcare workers in the trenches every day that are dealing with real life. They are doing the best they can so that is good enough. The news does not improve for herd immunity. A Monmouth poll says 1 in 4 Americans do not ever plan on taking a vaccine. This writer is included in that group but everyone has to decide for themselves. Thus, to reach the herd immunity goal by Labor Day, the US must hope that more people have been sick with covid, that did not realize it (they have antibodies), than the data indicates. Or, a rougher outcome is that more people (an acceleration which would be bad for hospitals) would need to become sick with coronavirus and develop their own antibodies over the coming few months to get to the coveted herd immunity threshold. The pandemic is a mess.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 2/4/21: More vaccination news. A poll shows that of all the vaccinations given so far, 60% are white women between the ages of 50 and 70 years old. This is the most vaccinated segment of the population. There are lots of great nurses and female doctors in that group, medics, too, and other healthcare professionals, so that may explain the high number. The white gal's know how to call, and make appointments, and do all that white folk stuff (said in a humorous Dave Chappelle way). 12% of the vaccinations are Latino and 5.4% are blacks; these numbers have to come up and fast especially since they are the vulnerable folks at higher risk. The shots are the hardest sell to the African American population because of past history when black folks were mistreated even experimented on. In the Tuskegee Study, black men were not told that they had syphilis. That is sickening to do that to other human beings. There were some evil humans back then mistreating other humans so no one can fault some of the black folks that have mental scars. Herd immunity is a long, long road.
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/5/21: J&J is seeking approval or emergency use of its vaccine. The vaccine is 72% effective in the US, 85% effective against serious illness and it prevents hospitalizations and deaths. No one died during the drug trial which is a phenomenal statistic. The approval process may take a few weeks. J&J is a single-shot vaccine and does not require special freezers. Although Johnny John's vaccine may not be as effective as the mRNA vaccines, which are over 94% effective after the second shot, in fairness, J&J's study is dealing with sicker folks than the mRNA studies in the Fall. Biden is considering sending out a mask to all Americans. That horse has left the barn. It was a Trump screw-up last spring when the US was going to send a mask to everyone but Donnie nixed the idea; one of the many missteps. Coronavirus was President Trump's Waterloo. The CDC recommends that children and students return to school. Parents echo that comment tenfold. The powerful teacher's union, however, that has Biden in their back pocket, wants the lockdowns to continue. Teachers are concerned about returning to work and contracting covid. They should be but it is time to go back. Chop-chop. Kids and young people are committing suicide and not receiving an adequate education over the last year. It is time to right the ship. Get the kids back in school. It would greatly improve America's collective psyche in dealing with the virus in daily life. Suck it up teachers. If you do not want to work, find a new profession. America is not on the side of the teachers when typically a majority of the population would side with the educators. Parents are concerned about the physical, mental, emotional, social and spiritual health of children and young people and the schools need reopened.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 2/5/21: French authorities raid a warehouse north of Paris where 81 horny people were enjoying an obscene orgy. The sex party violates a curfew and ongoing coronavirus restrictions. It does not appear that the people were concerned about the pandemic. They were fined, told to put their clothes on, and sent home. The French will not be denied their wine, baguette, cigarettes and orgies! The event gives new meaning to the phrase super-spreader. The Whitehouse contradicts CDC Director Walensky concerning kids returning to school. Walensky talks directly, which is welcomed and needed by the public, and says teachers do not necessarily need vaccinated for schools to reopen (although it would be nice if they were). The Whitehouse must not believe in the 'science' as much as they proclaim since they say the jury is out concerning schools reopening and say Walensky was speaking from a 'personal perspective'. The Whitehouse is in bed with the teachers union and performing a juggling act trying to appease teachers that do not want to return to the schools versus the science, CDC and majority of parents telling them to reopen the schools. Biden will dance the tango with the teachers this weekend, taking turns with the lead, and try to chart a path forward that can be coordinated with the new CDC guidance coming out in a couple days concerning schools (probably Tuesday or Wednesday once the teachers union is brought into the fold). The crony capitalism orchestra plays on. Politics is filthy and corrupt and sickens every society. When you know how the sausage is made, it is not as appetizing. The teachers are going to have to suck it up. Look at the grocery clerks and other folks not making a lot of money; they are out there toiling everyday putting up with the idiot humans during this pandemic, just like the healthcare workers. Teachers need to step-up, as many are happy to do so, and if not, they need to look for a new job. Pandemics and sickness is not going away, there will be future coronavirus pandemics, just ask Asia, so any teacher unable to handle the heat needs to get out of the kitchen, for their sake and everyone else and especially kids that need social interaction with each other. Children talk about things with each other that they would not discuss with adults, as they should, it is part of them discovering themselves, so they need to be together; physically, with each other. If you look through the window, you can see Sleepy Joe Biden kneeling and kissing the teacher's union ring.
Note Added Friday Evening, 2/5/21: The NFL (National Football League; American football) offers all its stadiums as vaccination sites. That is noble of them considering that they waited until the end of the football season (the Superbowl championship game is tomorrow night) to extend the offer. They wanted to make their money first before they offer aid to society; that's the American way these days. A handful of stadium parking lots have been helping with the nationwide vaccination program in recent weeks but others hold sports as the priority. The mRNA vaccines may have tracers that can easily identify whether you had the shot or not. The firefly's luciferase (an enzyme that produces bioluminescence) is used extensively in animal testing as an imaging device for the mRNA vaccines. The medical folks have not educated the public about the makeup of the mRNA and other vaccines since those conversations would likely increase apprehension about taking the shot rather than alleviate fears. Vaccines can contain animal proteins, mercury, firefly bioluminescence tracers and nano particles to name a few of the non-goodies. No wonder they do not talk about it. To the doctors and scientists credit, they are eating their own cooking. They roll-up their sleeves and take the shot so they obviously believe in the core of their soul that the vaccines are safe, helpful and useful. Everyone has to make their own decisions. The big problem for the United States may occur around the May/June timeframe when the realization hits that there is plenty of vaccine available but millions of Americans are not willing to take the shot. Vaccines may be forced on people as a requirement for employment or to travel on an airplane. Perhaps people will then understand that free nations do not exist. Some countries, such as the US, are more free than others, but none are completely free. Orwell's "1984" remains a top seller on the book charts over the last couple years. Biden is using the Defense Production Act to produce more vaccine, however, the problem in a couple months, as mentioned, may be people unwilling to take the vaccine rather than a lack of supplies.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 2/6/21: Global coronavirus cases hit 106 million. You become numb to the grim milestones after a while. 2.31 million earthlings have perished from COVID-19. 78 million global citizens have recovered (74%; better than the US; Asian nations are better equipped and more experienced at handling pandemics). The UK continues battling the pandemic where over 111K people are dead. There are 27.4 million coronavirus cases in the USA with 470,705 people dead. 17.1 million Americans have recovered from the illness (62%; this improves very slowly about 4 percentage points over the last couple months). US hospitalizations are down to 86K the lowest since 11/23/20. Iowa decides to lift its mask mandate but the Des Moines mayor maintains the mask-wearing mandate. Lifting the mask requirement is not a good idea since the UK variant has been identified in corn country.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 2/6/21: The new UK strain B117 is in 80 nations. The South Africa B1351 strain is in 40 countries. The Brazil B11248, or P1, is in 11 nations. The United States has a chance of staving off the new variants. The WHO continues to embarrass themselves investigating the origination of coronavirus. One researcher proclaims, "We went into the toilets, the air shafts (to collect samples)." That's funny. Coronavirus started its ugly spread in Wuhan, hence the Wuhan Virus, over a year ago and the area has been scrubbed more times than the boot camp floor at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (drill sergeants make you scrub the floors with a toothbrush to teach you a lesson). WHO is not going to find anything. If they do it is because they worked it out with the CCP ahead of time and agreed to provide the information. The WHO, CCP, PBOC, WEF, Blackstone, America's wealthy privileged class, corporate executives and politicians gaze lovingly into one another's eyes. The global elites form a circle, joining sweaty hands, committing to a lustful union ahead, and looking forward to carnal encounters on Valentine's Day.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 2/7/21: The Superbowl is played this evening. It is the American football championship game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Tom Brady as the quarterback that is over 40 years old, versus the Kansas City Chiefs, with Patrick Mahomes as the QB that is young and viral. The game is played in Tampa, Florida. The media boasts that only 25K fans will attend. Say what!!? 25,000 people?! What the.... everyone is told to do their part for the pandemic and here is the wealthy class again, as usual, waltzing into the Superbowl carefree and happy looking forward to a day of fun. Other families are parked in food bank lines because of the pandemic. Others are sitting at the kitchen table budgeting numbers that no longer add up since rent is four months behind. The league makes a big deal about giving 7,500 tickets to healthcare workers. Why didn't the cheap bastards give them all the tickets? The NFL stresses that the stadium holds 65K so the 25K fans do not pose much of a threat at spreading the virus. It is blasphemy. 25K people in one place is a guaranteed superspreader event not only for Tampa but everywhere the infected folks fly back to. Human jackasses are on full display. Four to 12 days after the game, the new cases may begin to climb, say 2/11/21 through 2/20/21. Time will tell. The household football parties will probably be minimal; the bigger worry is the 25K people at the event in Florida. The healthcare workers are vaccinated but they can actually still carry the virus even though inoculated. Today is the sad one-year anniversary of the first coronavirus death in the United States; now there are 473,735 dead bodies.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 2/7/21: CNN reports that a UK doctor says the ICU's remain "filled to the rafters." Conditions are improving but UK PM Johnson tells the Brit's to not let their guard down. France's active cases curve continues higher which is ugly news. France is distributing the AstraZeneca vaccine and warns that the UK variant B117 could be dominant by March. Too late; you are already there. The French must put down the wine, baguette and cigarettes, and stop those orgies if they want to halt the virus spread. Netherlands is the 21st country to pass the 1 million cases milestone a grim reminder of the ongoing tragedy. AstraZeneca says its vaccine is not as effective against the South Africa variant but may be more useful in severely ill patients. The testing and studies continue nonstop as folks are vaccinated. The coronavirus news improves but the variants keep hiding in the bushes. The pharmacies helping out with vaccinations, such as CVS and Walgreens, have bigger stockpiles of vaccine than their current dose rates require. Some of the vaccine will be redistributed or reallocated to other people. The goal should be to take every existing vaccine and stick it in any available arm as fast as possible, and that is the goal of the healthcare workers. People are feeling more optimistic since they see the charts flattening and wanting to roll over, however, another couple weeks will be needed before it can be confirmed that covid is on the run. The new strains may be more contagious but people are used to wearing masks and following guidelines so the variants may not pose as big a problem as feared.
Note Added Monday Morning, 2/8/21: South Africa halts the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine since it only provides a minimal 22% protection against the new variant B1351. AstraZeneca says the vaccine is being modified to better fight the South Africa strain. Concern increases around the world as data is starting to indicate B1351 is a more lethal strain. A German nursing home reports that over a dozen residents have tested positive for covid despite already receiving two vaccine shots; an investigation is continuing. Texas republican Representative Ron Wright, 67, dies from covid although he was also battling cancer. About six weeks ago, Congressman-elect Luke Letlow died of covid but Wright is the first sitting member of Congress to succumb from the tragic Wuhan Flu.
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