By K E Stone (Keystone)
Finally, some better news. The Christmas rush, of
coronavirus cases, is over (hopefully). There is typically an 8 to 14-day
period where daily new COVID-19 cases increase after a holiday due to parties
and family celebrations. Humorously, the refined medical class likes to use the
word ‘gatherings’ to describe parties where drinking, carousing, hugging,
kissing, bad behavior and loud music are standard fare. Be sure and knock
before entering any of the bedrooms.
The gatherings (the word has a haunting vibe to it) of
multiple people from different households for a few hours, in confined spaces,
such as in a living room and kitchen, perhaps passing a bowl (smoking pot)
around, spreads the already highly-contagious coronavirus like wildfire.
The Christmas and New year’s period can be lumped together since they are days apart so the big travel days were 12/19/20 through 1/3/21 and mostly 12/19/20 through 12/29/20 since that was family and relative party time but New Year’s is honey party time (one-on-one with your significant other that you are already around each day). Projecting the 8 to 14 days from the 12/29/20 date, is 1/12/21, this past Tuesday.
Thus, fingers, and toes, crossed, the US daily new cases may
have peaked on 1/8/21 at 308,011 cases as per the Worldometer data. That is actually good news since none
of the following days though today, Sunday, 1/17/21, have exceeded 8% of that daily
new cases high (as per the simple Keystone Model described below) which is calculated
to be 283,370 cases.
The US daily new cases chart above shows the record high and
the 7-day average that has rolled-over again which is a positive sign.
Obviously, we want both the daily new cases and 7-day average to plummet to
zero. Adding 28 days to the 1/8/21 peak in daily new cases is 2/5/21 as the
projected date where the active cases curve will flatten (Flattening the
Curve). America has to remain diligent for a couple more weeks and things will
flatten out and then subside (as long as the B117 variant does not show its ugly
face).
One-half of the coronavirus infections in the United States have occurred since November. The US is at 24.5 million coronavirus cases and achieved 12.2 million cases on 11/20/20. America's covid cases have doubled in the last 58 days. It took nine or ten months to reach 12.2 million cases and then only 2 months to double the cases.
The US active cases chart is shown above. This is the key
chart where the curve needs to flatten and roll over to the downside creating
the bell shape that verifies that the virus is being defeated (Flattening the
Curve). As long as the US daily new cases do not exceed 283K (within 8% of the
peak at 308K), the US active cases chart will flatten and roll over as February
begins. That is not far off, only a couple weeks away, so if Americans can
remain vigilant and keep wearing masks, and stay away from each other, which is
the most important metric, the United States will have another chance to
flatten the curve.
We blew it in late May and June last year because we partied
on Memorial Day. We blew it in the summer time due to pandemic fatigue and folks
going wild at the beaches and July 4th and Labor Day end-of-summer parties. Once
the Halloween, Thanksgiving, and holiday seasons were at hand, America’s daily
new cases, active cases and death charts started higher and never looked back.
Easter is 4/4/21 which will be a party weekend but until
then, the US has a chance to start righting the covid ship. Valentine’s Day is on
2/14/21 but it is a honey holiday, like New Year’s, a one-on-one day with your
significant other, so folks are staying home and it should not result in any
big spike in new daily cases. Easter likely will create a spike in cases in
late April and early May.
Generally, the coronavirus picture is not as dark as it has
been over the last month or two but the jury remains out. The big fear is the
new UK strain dubbed B117 (a simplified notation) that experts say will
dominate the US starting March. It is worrisome but as long as US daily news
cases do not exceed 283K, America is punching back at covid and trying to turn
the tables and on its way to flattening the active cases curve.
The US daily deaths chart is shown above with the deadliest day
on 1/12/21 at 4,491 deaths. The 7-day moving average is rolling over, or at
least trying to, which is a good sign. The US total deaths chart is shown above
climbing strongly higher towards 407K deaths. The grim reaper is enjoying
himself. 1 in every 814 Americans have died from covid over the last year.
The IHME predicts 450K dead by 2/1/21 which is only 15 days
away. The Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation forecasts 567K dead
Americans come 5/1/21 based on the current trajectory. May Day will be welcomed
with flowers for the pretty ladies but black roses for the covid caskets, and
daisies for their graves.
US coronavirus hospitalizations are at 126K off the peak of
132K on 1/6/21 so they are moving in the right direction and the
hospitalizations and daily new cases peak within two days of each other,
another positive tandem signal. You have to grab and hold dear any sliver of
good news when it comes to this wretched coronavirus pandemic.
The US states deserve credit dealing with the coronavirus
nightmare day after day for the past year, while Trump golfs, and the majority
now have great plans in place to administer the vaccines. 31.2 million doses of
vaccine are distributed across the US with 13.7 million shots administered asper the Bloomberg data. 1.6 million have received the second dose. Only 44% of
the vaccines are used thus far and MLK Day is tomorrow. American Mediocrity
rules the day.
Trump, who’s term ends at 12 PM noon time EST on Wednesday,
1/20/21, promised 20 million vaccinations by the end of the year which will be
three weeks ago. Many are now calling it the ‘vaccine fiasco’ another thing
that Americans lose confidence in. Donnie lost interest in the president’s job
after he lost the election on 11/3/20. At least Biden is going to dig in his
heels and try to find solutions for the pandemic. Trump’s ‘ignore it and hope
it goes away’ approach failed terribly.
The CDC warns that the vaccinations must ramp-up quickly or
the new B117 strain will accelerate and takeover. State governors are extremely
angry at the Trump administration and HHS Secretary Azar that misled the public
saying vaccine doses are in reserve but it was a lie; there is no reserve. Azar
resigned on Friday evening in disgrace. America explores new depths of
incompetence and mediocrity just when you thought this noble nation would turn
around towards excellence again. Oh well, hope springs eternal.
California opens several mass vaccination sites including a
large site at Dodger Stadium. Healthcare workers, medics, firemen, cops,
everyone in the Golden State, is exhausted. States are handling their
vaccination logistics problems and ready to receive and administer more shots
but the vaccine demand is now outstripping supply. In December and early
January, it was the opposite problem. The Fed’s need to distribute the vaccines
to the places that have resources in place and are ready to vaccinate like
Hell. New York is turning folks away at vaccination locations since they do not
have doses available. Get the medicine to the places that are ready to inject
them into arms. Pump those shots into arms! Let’s go! Chop-chop!
The pandemic is a mismanaged mess from the start. Time will
tell if Sleepy Joe Biden leads a better path forward than King Donnie Trump.
Obviously, Trump failed miserably. Biden promises 100 million vaccinations in
the first 100 days a doable goal. The bottleneck now is the vaccine supply and
unfortunately, Pfizer had a slight production delay late last week.
Interestingly, coronavirus may burn itself out this year before the vaccines
ever help the US reach herd immunity.
Norway is investigating 23 deaths in elderly folks after
they received vaccinations. Pfizer is jointly investigating and an early
conclusion is that the minor fever and nausea caused by the shot may have
contributed to the deaths. Norway is not going to administer the vaccine to the
elderly that are in fragile health. It is a learning process and earthling’s
will have to be calm, patient and understanding and let the medical
professionals do their work. No one wants to see anybody die.
The prior article ran through the herd immunity numbers in
detail. 240 million Americans need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity
which stops the spread of coronavirus. This number factors in the folks that
already have antibodies to fight the virus and those that may drop out after
the first shot. The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines both require two
shots, therefore, 480 million vaccine does are needed, let’s call it 5 hundo
million to achieve herd immunity and all these shots obviously have to be stuck
in arms.
500 million doses are needed. 31 million vaccine doses are delivered
to the states which is only 6%; the other 94% is needed. Almost 14 million vaccines
are shot in arms; only 3% of the shots that are needed. Even the longest of
journeys begin with the first few steps. Doctors and scientists continue
dealing with the vaccine hesitancy and vaccine skepticism crowd. It is probably
best to simply focus on the people that want vaccinated for now and then
address others lately.
A stink develops after several reports say vaccines are being wasted. As it turns out, there may be multiple doses in each vile especially with the Moderna vaccine. Thus, when the vaccine vile is used to vaccinate someone, there are two or three additional vaccinations available from that vile. In the crazy chaos that is the American healthcare system currently, sometimes the remaining vaccine is not used (in only very limited examples). Handling these situations is simply another problem to be prioritized by the exhausted medical folks.
Hospitals and pharmacies have identified the potential vaccine wastage issue and now have plans in place where people willing to be vaccinated are kept on call waiting lists. If a vile is opened, the health professionals are making sure a few folks are lined up to take the shot so none of the vaccine is wasted. Again, people are going to have to have to be patient. Cut each other a break. Society will relearn compassion and empathy over the coming months and years.
There is nothing wrong with taking or not taking the
vaccines; everyone has to make their own decision. The medical community should
educate folks and not talk down to them or tell them not to worry about it. As
dear ole Mom would say, ‘you always catch more bees with honey than you do with
vinegar’. Mayors of US cities are contemplating mandatory vaccines for
employees since about one-half of the public workers across many different
states do not want to take the vaccine. That sounds like trouble.
France President Macron has his hands full since one-half of
the nation does not want to take the vaccine. Many healthcare workers are
choosing not to take the vaccine themselves but that does not mean they will
not take it in the future or take a non-mRNA vaccine. A once in a century pandemic
is turning everyone batty.
Since the vaccination numbers remain piddly, let’s pretend
we are starting from scratch and need to administer 500 million vaccine doses
as soon as possible; “Stat!” Keystone always wanted to say ‘stat!’ and did one
time at the medical building but the healthcare professionals did not
appreciate the poor attempt at humor. Stat comes from the Latin word ‘statim’
which means ‘instantly’ and ‘urgently’. Thus, if starting now, with 15 days
remaining in January, and receiving and distributing all 500 million doses
(first and second shots) by 5/1/21, which is 104 days (the first 100 days of
the Biden administration runs from the inauguration on 1/20/21 to 5/1/21) from
now, is 4.8 million vaccinations per day. That’s not going to happen. It has
zero chance. Thus, herd immunity is already a summer or later event.
If July 4th, Independence Day is targeted instead as when
the 500 million doses will be in arms, that is 169 days from now, and requires
a vaccination rate of 3 million does per day. That’s not going to happen. How
about Labor Day as the goal? It is 9/6/21 so that is 233 days away and requires
2.1 million vaccinations per day now through early September. The math does not
lie folks. And you are hearing this from a mathematician.
Looking on the bright side, there are more vaccines in the
pipeline. Johnny John (J&J) and others are in trials currently. The
non-mRNA vaccines do not appear to have as strong an efficacy against covid but
they are useful and attractive alternatives for folks nervous about the new
technology.
The medical community now boasts that the mRNA technology is
very old, ancient, why it is 25 long years old, that is a quarter-of-a-century
Sonny and Girly, it is long in the tooth sorta speak, they must know all there
is to know by now with a technology that is so old and well-studied (sarcasm).
In other words, by stating that the technology is around many years, medical
officials want to remove the negative connotation and public mindset that the mRNA
vaccines are brand-spanking new and not properly researched or tested. Everything
is a mind game, folks. Your mushy mind is manipulated more than you will ever
realize. More vaccines will greatly improve the math going forward so a focus
on helping perhaps the one or two non-mRNA vaccines that have the best chance
would be an efficient use of government funds.
If the US can magically administer 2 million doses per day
under the current regime, that will take 250 days to shoot all 500 million
doses in arms and achieve herd immunity on 9/28/21 almost in October. This is
nothing to write home about; it seems like a million miles away.
If the US can magically administer 1.5 million doses per
day, that will take 333 days, just call it a year at that point so you are
talking herd immunity at Christmastime and New Year’s. Whoopie. That’s exciting
enough to make you roll over in bed and go back to sleep. It’s pitiful. By then
why not say heck with it all and wait for the virus to peter out on its own or
become far less potent like a regular flu which is probably what will happen
anyway.
America has to administer 1.5 million vaccinations per day
every day ahead just to reach herd immunity at the end of the year. If
vaccinations can increase, if things begin going hunky-dory, and 2.5 million
doses are shot per day, that is 200 days or 8/4/21. If 3.0 million doses are
shot per day, that is 167 days or 7/2/21, which is the July 4th target
mentioned above. The 3.0 million doses per day is a nice goal and if you can
get on that bandwagon and ride it, Independence Day is doable, however, it will
be a ‘man on the moon’ type goal. Biden is hoping for 100 million in 100 days, which
is a noble goal, but you see by the math above that it does not cut the mustard
and only serves to push the herd immunity date into the future.
Who are we kidding? Herd immunity does not arrive until the
end of the year at the earliest unless the non-mRNA vaccines are made available
(logistics are easier) pronto. Coronavirus may choose to flitter away starting
in the summer as has many other mysterious viruses in history (after about 18
months to 2 years). In War of the Worlds, by Orson Welles, all of the
earthling’s collective war and fire power did not kill the Martians; a virus
did. Maybe more folks should pray for mercy going forward since in the end the
virus may simply choose to go away.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, uses the daily new cases to project when the
active cases chart will flatten and roll over which signals an end to the
pandemic. The active cases chart is the most important chart since this is the
curve that needs to flatten and then roll over to the downside to create the
bell shape, hence the term, “flattening the curve.”
The flattening of the active cases curve represents the strain
on the healthcare system subsiding and then the active cases curve dropping off
on the right-hand side, to form the bell shape, verifies that the virus is
being defeated and healthcare workers can finally relax and catch a break.
Alas, the US active cases chart above is a sick pup continuing higher but the
daily new cases have peaked. Healthcare workers will see some leveling off of
the work load in about two weeks if yinz (Pittsburgese) can hang in there (late
this month, early February). Plan accordingly. Stay positive.
Take zinc and vitamin D-3 each day no matter who you are to
beef-up the immune system. Stay away from people as far away as possible. Work
at home if you can. If your job cannot be performed from home, then look for
another job. Don’t lay around hoping that things will get better since that
never works out. The big unknown is the new B117 strain and how it may impact
the US.
China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), either released
intentionally, or unintentionally, from one of their two bioweapons laboratories
in Wuhan, has infected 95 million people around the world killing over 2 million
souls. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is responsible for this horrific crime
against humanity. China unleashes bioterrorism upon the planet and against their
own Chinese people. Dictator Xi has no respect for the sanctity and dignity of
life.
The first death from covid in China in many months occurs a
couple days ago. The Beijing leadership has shut down two major cities and
other regions to contain the outbreak impacting 22 million people. The
communist countries can nip the virus outbreaks in the bud easier since the
population does what they are told, otherwise, they receive a bullet in their head.
Everyone is in prison now if you are not allowed to exit your residence.
Almost 68 million people have recovered worldwide (72%; 7 in
10 people in the world that were infected with covid have recovered; this
number remains steady the last three weeks).
The Wuhan Flu, or China Virus, has attacked and sickened 24.3
million Americans (7.4% of the 330 million US population; this number keeps
increasing at a steady pace; 1 in every 14 US citizens have been infected with
COVID-19), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering 407K United
States citizens. 14.3 million Americans have recovered from covid (59%; this
number is steady sideways not improving but not deteriorating either; 3 out of
every 5 Americans that were infected with covid have recovered).
The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the
United States. America is only 4.2% of the world’s 7.8 billion population but
has one-quarter (26%; worsening over the last month) of the coronavirus cases
and one-fifth (21%; worsening over the last three weeks) of the deaths.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world at 24.3 million followed by India (10.6 million), Brazil (8.5), Russia
(3.6), UK (3.4), France (2.9), Turkey (2.4), Italy (2.4), Spain (2.3), Germany
(2.0), Colombia (1.9), Argentina (1.8), Mexico (1.6), Poland (1.4), Iran (1.3),
South Africa (1.3), Ukraine (1.2), Peru (1.1), Indonesia (908K), Netherlands (907K),
Czechia (889K), Canada (702K), Romania (693K), Belgium (677K), Chile (665K), Iraq
(681K), Bangladesh (528K), Sweden (523K), Pakistan (519K), and Philippines (501K).
Brazil’s cases increase strongly. Ditto UK. South Africa is
a robust jump in cases for its size. Indonesia and Netherlands switch
positions. Canada moves up two positions which is not a good thing. Sweden
leapfrogs Pakistan. This sad list is the 32 sickest nations on earth based on total
coronavirus cases. 18 nations have over 1 million total covid cases. All 32
have over 500K cases. 10 nations have over 2 million total cases.
In total deaths, USA is number one with 4r07K dead. That is
astounding. The undertakers are dancing on the graves; they are booked solid with
several month’s work. Brazil has 209K dead crossing the 200K milestone, and India
has 152K dead crossing the 150K milestone. Mexico, UK, Italy, France, Russia,
Iran and Spain make up the top 10 worst nations for covid deaths.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in daily new cases to
forecast when the active cases curve will flatten and roll over. The bell curve
shape on the active cases curve verifies that the virus is defeated but to form
the bell the curve must first flatten. The flattening of the curve represents
the patient loads leveling off and the right side of the bell curve is where
healthcare workers finally receive a much-needed rest. The peak in daily new
cases occurs when the highest reported daily new cases occurs, or any
subsequent day within 8% of that peak day.
If the country, region, locality or state is well-prepared,
the active cases chart will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases
peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days typically
holds true for communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments,
such as red China, since the population has to do what it is told or they die.
Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought
under control in this same short time period as the initial wave. These nations
are great with testing and tracking programs and they jump on outbreaks quickly.
Asian nations have been dealing with pandemics for a couple decades so they are
better prepared than America.
Australia and Singapore, however, are the only current
shining examples on how to defeat the virus. South Korea, after struggling with
the third wave rolls the active cases chart over eight days after the daily
cases peak, which is a good thing. South Korea rights its covid ship after navigating
treacherous waters in recent weeks. China cannot be trusted concerning anything
about COVID-19 since they knowingly sent the virus around the world. The jury
is out on Japan that is getting hit hard with a third wave currently.
If the country is not well-prepared for a pandemic, or a free
nation, non-communist, like the US and other Western nations,
non-authoritarian, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new
cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive
at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will begin to
subside and hopefully decrease; the top of the bell curve where the strain on
the medical systems and personnel is at a peak).
Citizens in Western nations live more feely and independently so it is difficult to control a pandemic. Israel is of course a key part of the Free World but PM Netanyahu’s authoritarian style aids the country in maintaining control over the virus for three distinct waves, however, a new wave four is the worst outbreak yet with daily new cases rising again and the active cases chart going vertical. Israel is in a new lockdown but having trouble taming this fourth wave.
Israel is in trouble; maybe one of
the new more contagious strains are attacking Israel? Netanyahu has been losing
sleep the last few days. Bibi promises that all 9 million Israelis will be vaccinated by March. The Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are left in the dark woefully behind in vaccinations and not receiving help from the Israeli government. The sides bicker on who is responsible for the vaccination program for the Palestinians.
The coronavirus pandemic is under control and defeated when
the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner.
The term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the
US active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases,
hospitalizations, deaths or any other virus charts.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information are available to push the
story forward. We are into the new year but many folks are joyless since the US
coronavirus active cases curve (above) is heading higher and higher with no
signs of flattening. This tells you that more COVID-19 sickness, sadness and
tragedy is ahead and 2021 begins on a downbeat.
This is Article 31 in K E Stone’s (The Keystone Speculator) coronavirus
series of articles that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This thirty-first article is published on Sunday, 1/17/21.
Keystone’s covid articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during
2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies
and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending
Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases
Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans
Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue;
Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South
Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month;
US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W
Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and
West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s,
Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South
Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina,
Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China
Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus
Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya
are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12
published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13
published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress
Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US
Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming
the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave;
European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill;
RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru,
Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave;
Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota,
South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii,
Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues
Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States
Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill;
COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on
9/12/20.
The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US
is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling;
10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia,
Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing
Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report
Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland,
Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain,
Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN
Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to
Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction;
WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST
LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on
9/24/20.
The twenty-first article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump in
Hospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases Bell
Curve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey,
Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a
Disappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri,
Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the
Midwest and Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K
Americans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected;
Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes
in New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands,
Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress
Continues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital;
AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21
published on 10/4/20.
The twenty-second article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to
Flatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers;
Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases
Including the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee,
Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including
US, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland,
Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into
COVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely
Before the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on
10/14/20.
The twenty-third article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/24/20; United States
Reports Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever; America Fails to Flatten the Active
Cases Bell Curve; Nearly 230K Americans Dead; Delusional President Trump Says
Coronavirus is “Going Away”; Worst 28 US States are Wyoming, Alaska, Rhode
Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Wisconsin,
Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas,
Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana,
Maryland, Iowa and Illinois; US Map Shows Hot Zone States Correlated to
Interstate Highway Routes; Worst Countries are USA, UK, Canada, Mexico,
Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany,
Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Iran and Turkey; Virus Spreading
Rapidly in Europe, Western Asia (Eastern Bloc), Middle East and North America;
US Fiscal Stimulus Kabuki Theater Continues; US Presidential Election Only 10
Days Away; AMERICA EXCEEDS 100,000 NEW CASES PER DAY; Coronavirus Article 23
published on 10/24/20.
The twenty-fourth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/5/20; America Exceeds
118,000 New Cases Per Day Highest Ever; US Hit with Third Wave; Europe Under
Lockdown; 39 Nations Including United States in COVID-19 Hell; US Presidential
Election Vote Count Continues with Biden Leading Trump; Johns-Hopkins Reports
America Daily New Cases at 122K Highest Ever; Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows
Tests Positive; Worldometer Reports America Daily New Cases at 133K Highest
Ever; Joe Biden Named 46th President of the United States; President Trump
Refuses to Concede; Global Cases Exceed 50 Million; US Cases Exceed 10 Million;
Pfizer Vaccine Successful in Human Trial; US Daily New Cases Tragically at 188K
on 11/13/20; Coronavirus Article 24 published on 11/5/20.
The twenty-fifth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/15/20; US Reports 188K
Daily New Cases Highest Ever; 40 US States Report Highest Daily New Cases Ever;
US Coronavirus Cases Top 11 Million and Deaths Exceed 251K; 29 Worst Countries
Include Russia, Ukraine, Indonesia, Turkey, United States, Spain, Italy,
Germany, Austria, Sweden, Hungary, UK, Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea;
Europe and North America in Various Lockdown Stages; Global Coronavirus Cases Near
55 Million and Deaths Exceed 1.3 Million; President ‘Sore Loser’ Trump Refuses
to Concede to President-Elect Biden Almost 2 Weeks After Election Threatening
the Transition of Power and New US COVID-19 Response Plan; Medical Staff
Shortages; Americans Begin Hoarding Again; CORONAVIRUS 1-YEAR ANNIVERSARY; US
Coronavirus Cases Exceed 12 Million; US Reports 192K Daily New Cases Highest
Ever; US REPORTS OVER 204K DAILY NEW CASES HIGHEST EVER; US DEATHS EXCEED 260K;
US DAILY DEATHS EXCEED 2K; Coronavirus
Article 25 published on 11/15/20.
The twenty-sixth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/26/20; Thanksgiving Day;
GLOBAL CORONVIRUS CASES EXCEED 60 MILLION; 22 NATIONS HAVE OVER 500K CASES;
GLOBAL DEATHS EXCEED 1.4 MILLLION; US COVID-19 CASES EXCEED 13 MILLION; 15 US
STATES HAVE OVER 300K CASES; US EXCEEDS 150K NEW CASES PER DAY FOR 15 DAYS
RUNNING; US DEATHS EXCEED 266K; US DEATHS EXCEED 2K PER DAY; President-Elect
Biden Transitioning to Power; Hospitals and Healthcare Workers Strained but
Worse is Yet to Come; United States Descends into Covid Hell; Vaccines are
Promising but Remain Months Away; US REPORTS 235,272 DAILY NEW CASES ON 12/4/20
WORST EVER; 2,921 AMERICANS DIE ON 12/3/20 THE DEADLIEST DAY OF THE PANDEMIC; 1
AMERICAN DIES OF COVID-19 EVERY 30 SECONDS; US HOSPITIALIZATIONS TOP 101K;
Coronavirus Article 26 published on 11/26/20.
The twenty-seventh article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 12/6/20; 67 MILLION GLOBAL
CORONVIRUS CASES; 14 COUNTIRES OVER 1 MILLION CASES; 25 NATIONS OVER 500K
CASES; 1.54 MILLION GLOBAL DEATHS; 15 MILLION US CORONAVIRUS CASES; 17 US
STATES OVER 300K CASES; US EXCEEDS 145K DAILY NEW CASES FOR 23 DAYS RUNNING;
288K US DEATHS; US DEATHS EXCEEDING 2,250 PER DAY FOR 5 DAYS RUNNING; 1
AMERICAN DYING OF COVID-19 EVERY 30 SECONDS; US HOSPITIALIZATIONS TOP 101K;
Coronavirus Attacking North America; United States Descending Into COVID-19
Hell; Blacks and Latinos Dying at 3 Times the Rate of Whites; Delusional
President “Sore Loser” Trump Continues Ignoring and Mismanaging Pandemic;
Hospitals at Capacity; Healthcare Workers Completely Burnt-Out; Medical System
on Verge of Collapse While Americans Enjoy Virus-Spreading Holiday Parties and
Political Rallies; Vaccines are Promising but Too Slow to Stop Exponential
Outbreak; 3,260 DIE IN US ON 12/9/20 DEADLIEST DAY OF PANDEMIC; OVER 302k
AMERICANS DEAD FROM CORONAVIRUS A GRUESOME MILESTONE; Pfizer Vaccinations
Begin; US REPORTS 246,761 DAILY NEW CASES HIGHEST EVER; US Hospitalizations
Above 108K; Over 1.6 Million Earthlings Dead from COVID-19; Coronavirus Article
27 published on 12/6/20.
The twenty-eighth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 12/17/20; US REPORTS 251K
DAILY NEW CASES ON 12/16/20 HIGHEST EVER; 3,561 AMERICANS DIE OF COVID-19 ON
12/16/20 DEADLIEST DAY EVER; 318K AMERICANS DEAD; 1 in 183 AMERICANS INFECTED
WITH COVID IN THE LAST WEEK!; 24 US States (Half the Country) Report Highest
Daily Cases Ever Over Last Week; New York, California, Texas, Georgia,
Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia and Maine Report Highest Daily Cases Ever
Over Last 2 Days; US Hospitalizations Over 114K; Pandemic Spinning Out of
Control; President “Cry-Baby” Trump is MIA (Missing in Action); Pfizer/BioNTech
mRNA Vaccinations Underway and Moderna On-Deck; Medical Professionals Concerned
About Vaccine Hesitancy; Healthcare Workers Exhausted but Worst Yet to Come
Including rationing Care; Ivermectin; UK VIRUS MUTATION CREATING GLOBAL ANGST;
US Hospitalizations Above 120K; Americans Ignore Covid Guidelines Instead
Traveling and Partying on Christmas Holiday; Coronavirus Article 28 published
on 12/17/20.
The twenty-ninth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 12/27/20; 340K AMERICANS
DEAD FROM COVID-19; US Hospitalizations Reach 120K; Coronavirus Spiraling Out
of Control; President “Sore-Loser” Trump Ignores Pandemic; 2 Million Americans
Vaccinated Need 250 Million for Herd Immunity; UK Variant Appears in Ireland,
France, Japan and Elsewhere; American Hospitals and Healthcare Workers Bracing
for Rough January and February; Millions of Americans Ignore Covid Guidelines
Instead Choosing to Travel and Party; UK Infections Spiking Dramatically
Higher; Vaccine Distribution Slower Than Expected; US DEATHS ABOVE 350K THIS
YEAR; 3880 AMERICANS DIE FROM COVID-19 ON 12/30/20 THE DEADLIEST DAY EVER; US
Hospitalizations Exceed 125K; USA Hits 20 Million Total Covid Cases; Vaccine
Hesitancy; US DEATHS EXCEED 360K; Coronavirus Article 29 published on 12/27/20.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a couple or few days.
The COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data
available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail.
For any country or US state, the increase in daily new cases
has to stop printing higher highs and instead level off, and then hopefully decrease,
before there is any hope that the medical systems and personnel will receive
relief about four weeks in the future when the active cases chart flattens and
rolls over. The US healthcare services may have to be rationed going forward,
and this is already happening in a few locations, but overall, the picture is slightly
brighter than a couple weeks ago. The month will remain difficult but barring
any big increases in US daily new cases due to the B117 strain, the patient
workload should start to level off soon.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. South Korea is also back
in good graces after defeating the latest wave which was difficult. The 30 nations
on the list below are experiencing the worst pandemic outbreaks currently (based
on the data which nations may or may not be reporting truthfully) and are the
worst global hotspots. The data is helpful in identifying broad regions that
are experiencing outbreaks.
The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks in active cases (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment
and systems) when the curve should flatten, based on the Keystone Model. The pandemic
is smacking the nations at the bottom of the list the hardest.
Belgium (Second Wave) (there are
issues with the data)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
12/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
12/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/31/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in December)
1/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for third wave 12/30/20 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for third wave)
1/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever at 308K!!!)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/10/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 1/9 and 1/10/21)
1/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave are in January)
1/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 9/23/20 and 3 days in January)
1/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/15/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
2/12/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
1/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
1/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/16/21
New Case Peak Date
1/27/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 1/15 and 1/16/21)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave are in January)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 1/15 and 1/16/21)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Spain (Third Wave Starting)
(limited and changing data hampers analysis)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for this new third wave)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Malaysia (Second Wave) (data may
be problematic)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Malaysia and Indonesia are in bad shape with the coronavirus raging out of control in a big way. Maybe they are getting hit with a more serious strain. Japan struggles but South Korea has rolled-over its active cases curve so it is off the naughty list above. The Middle East countries are under siege again including Bahrain, UAE, Egypt and Israel.
Bolivia turns bigtime ugly reporting the highest daily new
cases ever on 1/16/21. This is terrible for that western side of South America.
Sure enough, checking Ecuador, it reports a big spike in cases and now it is in
covid trouble again. Oh no. Peru reports a huge spike higher in daily new cases
which will begin a new wave. This is terrible news. South America is hit hard.
These are the world’s copper fields so metal prices should remain elevated. Honduras
and Guatemala are falling into covid Hell again ditto Panama and over in the
Dominican Republic. There is some bad coronavirus stuff all the way down the
west coast of South America up into central America and then moving up through
Mexico encompassing all of North America.
President-elect Biden plans to relax the immigration laws so thousands of migrants escaping torrential floods, the coronavirus pandemic, sick economies and violence, are moving north from South and Central America. Ugly clashes occur in Guatemala between police and migrants trying to make their way through the nation. The virus is spreading in Central America and caravans of migrants, and clashes, will only serve to exacerbate the pandemic.
Red alert. Mexico’s daily new cases explode higher (see
chart above) to 21,366 cases on 1/16/212. It is jaw-dropping. Dear Lord. Right
when it looked like Mexico was getting a handle on things. Mexico is bigtime
scary right now and those sick folks are going to send the covid Hell to the
north. Maybe one of those more contagious strains are working its way northward?
France is struggling but the real trouble is on the western
side of the European continent. Daily new cases explode to the highest ever in
Portugal and Spain. What is going on? Is that new UK strain B117 floating
around to Ireland now down to Portugal and Spain? Europe is going to be in for
a world of hurt if this difficult path for Portugal, Spain and France moves
eastward. If Europe is smart, they would put up a firewall in France to try and
contain the virus although it appears hopeless after battling the ghost for a
year. Coronavirus does what it wants.
It is discouraging and disheartening to see the huge jump in
cases in Portugal, Spain, Indonesia, Malaysia, Bolivia and Mexico, to name a
few. China unleashed bioterrorism upon the planet and they will have to pay a
dear price in the future.
The troubled US states are highlighted below with their
projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on
healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. 35 US states have failed to
flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to fall back into covid Hell again as daily new cases, and then
active cases, rise with new waves.
These 15 US states have rolled their active cases curve over
to form, or start forming, the bell shape, and verify that the virus is being defeated;
North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois,
Michigan, Ohio (may be getting into trouble again), Pennsylvania, New Hampshire,
Tennessee, West Virginia and South Dakota. Kansas is removed from this happy
list and tossed into the trash-bin list below since its active cases curve is
spiking higher. Tennessee, West Virginia and South Dakota are pulled from the
sad list below and placed in the happy list because their active cases curves
are rolling over to the downside.
The positive news is that the holiday rush of new covid
cases appears to have peaked. Those are the last major holidays until Easter in
early April so that provides a window of opportunity to beat the virus down
without watching huge groups of people out partying and whooping-it-up which
leads to the spikes in infections.
Missouri (problematic data)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (curve finally flattening)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (chart is trying to flatten)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever occur in November and early December)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (curve continues higher)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases beginning to rise again)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
12/9/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (starting to flatten)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/21 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (chart continues higher)
12/28/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/5/20 and 1/2/21)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/1 and 1/5/21)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/12/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 8/31/20, 9/2/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/31/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Vermont (Third Wave)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/1, 1/7 and 1/8/21)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4/20 and 1/9/21)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/7 and 1/9/21)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (data is choppy and messy)
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/10/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
South Carolina (Third Wave)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 12/27/20 and 1/16/21)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
The wheels fall off in South Carolina. Holy smokes. The covid boat must have hit the shore spreading the pandemic far and wide. Daily new cases spike to the second highest ever. Brace yourself South Carolinians, something is going on in the Palmetto State and it is not good; be aware. North Carolina is nothing to write home about either with its daily cases spiking. Conditions in Kansas deteriorate.
Virginia receives the award for the most drastic
deterioration (see chart above). Daily new cases spike vertically. Virginia is
the nastiest daily new cases chart out of all the states. Is it because of all
the political turmoil, elections and rallies? New York is right with Virginia
with a huge spike in daily new cases on Friday. Governor Cuomo will be under
some hot lights going forward. Ditto New Jersey, or “Joisey,” as they do not
say in Jersey. The US East Coast is seeing big spikes in daily new cases
including New York, New Jersey and the Carolina’s. Has the new UK B117 strain arrived
on American shores in force?
Los Angeles County, California, an epicenter of the latest
outbreak reports over 1 million total cases one-third of the states nearly 3
million cases. Los Angeles County is beaten to a pulp by covid and the
refrigerated trucks are filling up with dead bodies.
The news remains disappointing but surprisingly, this
article is more upbeat than expected. The holiday surge of patients appears to
have peaked. The major headache now is if the dreaded B117 strain appears in
force and sadly it may be gaining momentum as witnessed by the big spike in new
cases in the Carolina’s, New Jersey, New York and Virginia. Travelers are
bringing their sick B117 strain with them arriving in US ports via ship or in
airports via airplane. B117 will take it from there.
Watch the US daily case numbers. If the daily new cases
remain below 283K (within 8% of the 308K record high in daily new cases) from
here on out, the active cases chart will flatten and roll over in a couple
weeks and America will be on its way to defeating the virus with or without the
vaccines. Of course, the vaccines will completely snuff out covid and hasten
herd immunity as the year plays out. If, however, the US daily new cases exceed
283K any day forward, America is screwed and 2021 will look exactly like 2020
did.
The first coronavirus case in the United States was identified 1/20/20 so the 1-year anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic is Wednesday, 1/20/21, the same day of the Biden inauguration and Trump departure.
Note Added 8:00 PM EST: President-elect Biden's incoming health team proclaims that there will be 100 million vaccine doses available for the first 100-day goal. Dr Rochelle Walensky is Biden's pick to head the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and she is appearing more on television and in media. Biden's chief of staff Klain proclaims that we are "inheriting a huge mess." Dr Scott Gottlieb comments on the vaccine program and says, "I think the issue' is going to become demand." Dr Fauci says getting 100 million vaccine doses into 100 million arms over the next 100 days "is absolutely a doable thing." 432 people die from covid in California today.
Note Added Monday Morning, MLK Day, 1/18/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Oh no. Mexico reports another huge day of daily new cases at 20,523 cases. Saturday was 21,366 cases; these are the highest daily cases ever. Mexico is in deep trouble and interestingly, thousands of migrants are moving north and will interact with the disease-stricken nation as well as the countries in Central America. Oh no. Spain reports 40,197 daily new cases the highest ever. Portugal is over 10.3K daily new cases for five days in a row the highest cases ever! Spain and Portugal needs to batten down the hatches immediately; you are getting hit with a covid storm right now and the countries probably do not see it coming. It will get ugly in eastern Europe over the next couple weeks. 24.5 million Americans have been infected with the Wuhan Flu. 14.4 million have recovered. Over 407K Americans have died; this is President Trump's legacy. Will Biden add another 400K American dead bodies onto the existing 407K pile over the next year or will the numbers improve? 95.5 million citizens on earth have been infected with the China Virus. 68.2 million have recovered. Over 2 million have died. China must be held accountable for its release of bioterrorism upon the planet and its crimes against humanity but that is a matter for another day. In the present, the world's battle against COVID-19 continues.
Note Added Monday Morning, MLK Day, 1/18/21, at 8:30 AM EST: Concerns increase that the new UK B117 strain, and many other strains now surfacing, may create a challenge for the vaccines. The medical community hopes to vaccinate folks as fast as possible so the pandemic can calm down during the summer before any new coronavirus wave appears this coming Fall. If the mutations develop faster than the vaccines, the new virus strains may be dominant by summer and the vaccines may only be minimal effective. All you can do is hope and pray otherwise. And your prayers are answered. Fauci says two of the non-mRNA vaccines may be approved for use in a matter of a few "weeks not months." People are becoming skeptical of rosy talk. Ask Johnny John (Johnson & Johnson; J&J) directly and find out what they say. Even an approval in February or March means these vaccines will not be available until April or later more than likely. Biden would be best served telling the American people the news directly and not setting rosy projections. Americans can handle it. The big worry is the B117 strain which is in America now. The vaccines will not have an impact since only 14 million people have received a shot and only 1.6 million have received the necessary two shots. The B117 strain dictates whether the pandemic will calm down after the US active cases curve flattens in two weeks, or, if the case load will once again accelerate forward in a couple weeks when the impact of the new strain is being felt in force. We will probably be smacked in the face with the B117. The covid trouble in the Carolina's, Virginia, Jersey and New York will be migrating west. The reason the US is slow to identify the new variant is because of the weak testing system. Scientists say the UK strain B117 may have been in the US 5 or 6 weeks sooner than thought which places it here in mid to late November. Interestingly, the US active cases chart shows the parabolic move higher in October and November so perhaps that spike higher in the chart that continues into today is due to many B117 cases? This may actually be great news because the US may have already seen the spike due to the new UK strain. However, the daily new cases re rising on the East Coast which hints that a more serious strain is hitting our shores now.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, MLK Day, 1/18/21: New York Governor Cuomo is considering buying vaccine directly off the pharma companies since they have vaccination sites in full operation but no vaccine to administer. Biden's covid advisor Dr Celine Gounder says the governor's actions would likely only cause more confusion. Governors in democrat states are complaining that the Trump administration purposely misled them about the availability of vaccines. Trump's approval rating is at its lowest in the low 30's as he leaves office tomorrow is his last full day as president. Florida reports that 40K people are overdue for their second vaccine shot. The side effects appearing after the second shot may be scaring some folks away. Also, vaccine availability is an issue. The Trump team has mismanaged the pandemic from start to finish. Time will tell if Biden does any better.
Note Added Monday Evening, MLK Day, 1/18/21: A bad batch of Moderna vaccine is discovered in San Diego. People are having adverse reactions so California pauses all vaccinations with this batch of vaccine. Obviously, the country does not need this type of news since it reinforces the mindset of folks not willing to be vaccinated.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/19/21, at 3:00 AM EST: GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS CASES (INFECTIONS) EXCEED 96 MILLION. 2.05 MILLION PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD HAVE DIED OF COVID. 24.6 MILLION AMERICANS HAVE BEEN INFECTED WITH COVID-19. 408,623 AMERICANS HAVE DIED OF CORONAVIRUS. California exceeds 3 million total cases the worst state in the nation and Los Angeles County is the first United States county to exceed 1 million cases. Illinois just crossed above 1 million total cases. 12 US states report over 10K total deaths with New York at 41,164 deaths and California at 33,739 deaths. A once-in-a-century pandemic is a tragedy that is hard for humans to comprehend.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 1/19/21: The Johns-Hopkins data finally crosses the 400K death milestone for the United States. This would have been expected on the weekend but instead it occurs on Trump's last full day in office. It is appropriate considering his failed handling of the pandemic but it appears very fortuitous for those wanting to stick it to the president as he leaves office in controversy. Fauci and the gang keep tap-dancing over the lack of vaccine in reserve now saying that all vaccine is shipped from the manufacturers to the states. General Perna who is supposedly handling the vaccine distribution logistics is nowhere to be seen; he should be providing press conferences a couple days per week. He is probably hiding under his desk. The pandemic remains a chaotic mess over the last year. Trump has been missing in action after he lost the election on 11/3/20 and worthless concerning the pandemic. American Mediocrity rules the day.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 1/20/21: The USA reports 24.8 million total covid cases and 411,520 dead Americans. The Johns-Hopkins data is at 402K and will probably increase by another couple thousand quickly. In 10 hours, President Trump is history and President Biden takes charge. China's outbreak in the Hebei province around Beijing continues; the filthy communists are getting a dose of their own sick bioterrorism medicine. Germany's vaccination program is not going well. Germany's daily news cases are rolling over lower which is a good thing but deaths remain elevated. Dear Lord. Portugal's deaths sky-rocket to 218 yesterday, 1/19/21. Portugal daily new cases remain elevated. Spain's deaths remain robust and daily new cases remain elevated. Europe, you need to watch your western flank. Oh no. The UK reports 1,610 deaths yesterday the deadliest day ever. The Brit's are smacked hard over the last couple months; Boris has his hands full. Ireland reports 92 deaths yesterday its second worse day of the entire pandemic only surpassed by the horrific 214 dead on 4/24/20 nine months ago. Morocco is not seeing the increased infections that are prevalent in Spain, Portugal, UK and Ireland. Morroco guards the Rock of Gibraltar on the south side while Spain is the sentinel to the north. The new strain may also be sneaking into Europe proper via Germany.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 1/20/21: Joseph Biden is officially the 46th POTUS. Donnie Trump and First Lady Melania fly off for Florida this morning. There is a new sheriff in town that plans to take better control of the pandemic. The day is dominated by the Biden inauguration pomp and circumstance.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 1/20/21: The Johns-Hopkins US deaths are over 406K. The deaths jump quickly as predicted; it smells a little bit that the data conveniently lagged until Donnie Trump's last day when it tagged the 400K dead (the Worldometer data was 8K to 10K above). When you watch data all the time, you discover many things. Biden signs executive orders. He invokes the Defense Production Act to ramp-up production of PPE and other items. He instructs Dr Fauci to reestablish ties with WHO. This includes participating in COVAX which is the program that brings equitable distribution of the vaccines to peoples all around the world. China screwed the world when the coronavirus outbreak started and the WHO was complicit in the lie. China shafted the rest of the world telling everyone that the coronavirus was no big deal because it gave them time to buy up all existing PPE supplies around the globe. Isn't that sickening? What garbage they are. Keep an eye on the WHO to make sure they are not in bed with Dictator Xi as they have been over the last year. WHO needs to prove their independence. A nightlight is needed in that bedroom with the red sheets and WHO needs to avoid the comingling with the filthy communists.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 1/21/21: EU leaders meet to discuss vaccine delays across the continent. Pfizer/BioNTech are hit with production, delivery and distribution delays which creates angst across Europe. The Netherlands plans on implementing a curfew. Belgium is contemplating a ban on all non-essential travel. Germany is over 50K deaths, a grim milestone; 50,376 Germans have lost their lives to the China Flu. Germany and Belgium voice concern over the new strains impacting Europe but the B117 and others are likely already there. Oh no. Spain reports 41,576 daily new cases for yesterday the highest ever. Oh my. Spain deaths are 464 yesterday. Oh Dear Lord. Portugal reports 14,647 daily new cases for yesterday the highest ever and by a lot. Europe better focus on that western flank now or there will be big trouble ahead. Oh my. It is time to sit down. Portugal reports 219 deaths yesterday and 218 the day before the two most deadly days of the entire pandemic. There is something nasty going on there folks; try to stay safe. Morocco is still hanging in there and does not appear impacted with the new strain. There must be a lot of commerce between the coasts of Spain, Portugal, France, UK and Ireland. Oh no, more bad news. It is not fun to be Michael the dark archangel all the time but so be it. France's daily new cases may be starting to ramp higher, if so, Europe is going to be screwed for many months. France reports 26,784 daily new cases the most since November and the highest of this ongoing third wave. Over the last two months, the new UK strain B117 infected London and moved over to Ireland, and then may be slapping at the shores of Portugal and Spain, moving inland. The new strain may also be sneaking into the continent via Germany and disturbingly, as described, may be entering via France. Best wishes to our friends across the pond but there may be a covid sh*t storm about to sweep across Europe. This is very bad news since the vaccine program is off to a shaky start like in the States. A UK official proclaims that the hospitals look like "warzones." Oh no. UK deaths hit 1,810 yesterday the deadliest day of the entire pandemic. If the UK cannot shake that new B117 bug, we are all screwed.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 1/21/21: 54.3 million people are vaccinated around the world at a current rate of 2.8 million doses per day. There are 36.0 million doses distributed to all US states. 17.2 million shots are administered. Thus, 48% of the vaccines available in the US are administered; almost half. The percentage is improving so folks will have to be patient. It is going in the right direction. The current average doses per day in the United States is 912,500; almost a million. If it tags a million, President Biden's goal of 100 million shots in 100 days will be an easy target; it is basically at that pace now. That's funny. Biden is president now so the clock is already running. In that case, he needs to get that 912,500 over 1 million today, pronto, and every day ahead. 500 million doses are needed to vaccinate 250 million Americans (230 million to 250 million) and achieve herd immunity. If 17.2 million doses are administered, that is 3.4%. America is off and stumbling but we are making progress with 97% to go. Every little bit helps. At the pace of 1 million doses per day, and the need for another 483 million doses, that would take 483 days or 16 months which is May 2022. This is not acceptable. A new vaccine will likely be needed by Fall so there is a seven months to mid-August to get a handle on the current mess. This is 210 days so a vaccine average doses per day rate of 2.3 million doses is required to reach herd immunity by August. We're screwed. Each day the 2.3 million doses rate is not achieved, is another day you add on from mid-August forward to determine when herd immunity will occur. The vaccine supply and distribution may pose a problem going forward. The single dose J&J and AstraZeneca non-mRNA vaccines are the game-changer. If they are not approved in quick order, there will be no game to change. 2021 is looking a lot like 2020. The Biden team say there was no coronavirus plan by the Trump administration. No wonder it was a mess. Trump and the cronies simply spewed garbage and bull sh*t each day to the public sometimes making numbers up out of whole cloth. The Biden team says they have to start from scratch. You have to take things with a grain of salt, however, because when you are the new kid in town you will of course paint a bad picture because then you will look good no matter what down the road. This is standard behavior in the crony capitalism system. But, considering the pandemic mess, and knowing that Donnie could not manage his way out of a paper bag, the casinos are proof of that, it is no surprise that the Trump team did not have a cohesive plan. Trump is a guy that does not like things written down because that can prove him wrong later. He likes to operate fast and loose with the facts and information molding it to his narrative on any given day. That may have helped him in a real estate deal but it ended his presidential term with a one-year old pandemic at its worst and five dead bodies laying on the Capitol Building's steps after the riot.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 1/21/21, at 4 PM EST: Biden says the US deaths may exceed 500K next month. He calls the vaccine rollout a "dismal failure." Biden is put-off by a question asking if the 100 million shots in 100 days is too easy of a goal. It is funny. Americans are tough nowadays expecting and demanding excellence from everyone around them while they themselves produce mediocrity at best. Biden snips at the question and feels that it is a challenging goal. A press conference occurs over at the Whitehouse and Dr Fauci speaks. President Trump had sidelined Fauci. He talks about the three new strains from UK, South Africa and Brazil. The vaccines appear to be useful against the strains but the South Africa and Brazil require far more study. About 20 US states have confirmed the UK strain B117. Fauci says it "does not appear the South Africa strain is here." Fauci is at the podium again under the new Biden administration and he says 'if he does not know the answer to a question, he will not guess'. He appears to be relaxed and have a new sense of freedom (Trump isn't standing over the doctor brow-beating him). Fauci says it is a "liberating feeling." The doctor comments on the prior statement by the Biden team about "starting from scratch" with the vaccine plan. Fauci says they are not starting from scratch since the vaccine rollout is occurring now although a plan is needed. Everyone tries to be diplomatic nowadays. America needs to return to its plain-speaking days.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 1/21/21: GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS CASES ARE OVER 98 MILLION WITH OVER 2.1 MILION PEOPLE DEAD. THE US REPORTS OVER 25 MILLION CASES AND 420,917 DEATHS. The other day 400K was a big deal and we are blowing through 420K already, check that, 421K. 4,363 Americans die yesterday, 4,394 souls the day before and 4,482 die on 1/12/21, the three deadliest days of the pandemic. The carnage is astounding. The senior population is culled which will ease the burden on the Social Security Administration going forward.
Note Added Friday Morning, 1/22/21: UK PM Johnson says the scientists are finding evidence that the new B117 strain may be more deadly. The Brits need that like they need a hole in their head. The UK has already been dealing with the out of control virus situation a few months. A couple weeks ago, Johnson stupidly said the pandemic may be in the rearview mirror come April; he is no longer saying that. Oh Lord. Spain reports 44,357 cases yesterday a huge number. Portugal reports its highest cases ever during the last two days. Something nasty is going on in the western European peninsula. Mexico is a disaster. The highest cases ever are occurring over the last week. 1,539 Mexicans die yesterday from covid and 1,584 souls the day before the two deadliest days of the pandemic for our southern friends. Russia's deaths remain elevated at the highest levels of the pandemic. The country is snow and ice which actually helps since they are probably stacking dead bodies in snow banks until they can be processed and buried. China creates Hell on Earth with their virus bioweapon. Indonesia reports 346 deaths yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 1/22/21: Some good news. US COVID-19 hospitalizations are 119,927 patients the first time below 120K since 12/27/20. The vaccine rollout around the world is a pitiful reflection on human ingenuity; a global embarrassment. Comedian Dave Chappelle tests positive for coronavirus. A Houston, Texas, area doctor Hasan Gokal, is questioned by authorities over allegedly stealing vaccine to give to shots to his family and friends. He said he took a vial that was punctured and damaged so it would have been wasted anyways. Keystone's cousin Larry worked at a beer distributor three decades ago. Larry and a coworker would decide what beer they would like to drink that evening, both sneaking a couple bottles of beer there at work and afterwards. One of them would then proceed to puncture the case of beer with the fork truck. They would call the boss and tell him the case was destroyed, he would say clean it up and don't worry about it. Sounds like the doctor found a punctured vial next to those punctured beer bottles. A UK rag says Japan's Olympic Games, already delayed, would be cancelled. An Olympic spokesman quickly took to the airwaves proclaiming, "The games are on!" Good luck wit dat. The Olympic torch will be lit on 7/23/21 and the games will be reduced. Japan is fighting that nasty third wave now that they still cannot control. Japan reports 96 citizens dead from covid yesterday and 99 souls the day before the two deadliest days of the entire pandemic. The Japanese are notorious for fudging numbers so you know there are more deaths than that; the powers to be on the island simply did not want to show three digits (over one hundo). It is a shame that all the Olympic athletes around the world are screwed due to the China Flu. It is difficult to find motivation in a sea of coronavirus despair. France joins the 3 million total cases club with UK (3.6 million), Russia (3.7), Brazil (8.7), India (10.6) and the United States with 25.4 million cases. Biden speaks and says 600K Americans will likely perish from covid. Every time he talks it goes up by 100K, last time it was 500K. Tell him to quit talking! The bodies are stacking up faster than they can be buried.
Note Added Friday Evening, 1/22/21: The CDC says the second dose of the vaccine can be administered as much as 6 weeks after the first when the drug trials and recommendations are for a 3-week (Pfizer/BioNTech) and 4-week (Moderna) space between doses. The information is released Friday night when no one is paying attention. Also, if in a pinch, the other mRNA vaccine (Pfizer versus Moderna) can be used for the second dose, and visa versa, but this is only if there is no other choice. Folks keep touting the 'science' but people appear to be choosing to interpret science differently. The vaccine supply is becoming an issue so the CDC is trying to distribute the shots out to more people faster and then count on the manufacturers to ramp-up production in time for the second doses. Also, special needles are used to extract more vaccine from a vial and get one more dose. The pharma companies get paid by the dose so their mouths water but then they agree to not charge for any extra doses that can be extracted from a vial. The global vaccine rollout drama continues. It is deadly serious stuff but it looks like a clown show each day. The state governors are becoming vocal wanting more vaccines some wanting to deal with Pfizer or Moderna directly. There remains problems in many states with the vaccination programs with elderly folks standing in line for long periods of time. It is ridiculous. The line may kill them or getting covid from all the other people in line. Washington, DC, had between 25K and 28K National Guard troops helping during the inauguration. That is a guaranteed superspreader event and the American humans, in their infinite wisdom, pulled troops from all the states to help out so they flew back to their home states spreading hugs, kisses and covid. Right on cue, doctors are reporting today a half dozen coronavirus cases among the National Guard and they are expecting that to increase. The Capitol Police say 19 officers test positive for covid. Fauci tosses Trump under the bus after taking the bait in a CNN interview when asked if the previous administration's lack of candor and lack of facts cost lives. Fauci could smell the bait, and said he did not want to create a sound bite, but then the doctor gobbles-down the bait and decrees, "It (the lack of candor and facts in the previous administration) likely did (cost lives)." It is easy to tell that Fauci is happier that the place is now under new friendlier management. Dr Birx comments that she had thought of quitting each day she worked around Trump. Birx and Fauci act like they were under the rule of a tyrant so no one can blame them if they are happy and using Donnie's orange head as a piñata. Fauci says, "Science will determine the path ahead." Bomp, bomp. The bus, packed with vaccine doctors and epidemiologists, drives along unconcerned that they just ran over something. Lots of folks are going to step up to the plate over the coming days and weeks to use King Donnie as a punching bag. The House is forwarding the impeachment papers to the Senate on Monday which will decide whether or not to convict Trump of inciting the Capitol Hill Riot. Sleepy Joe signs more executive orders (the lazy way president's institute legislation, and the executive orders can be reversed by a new president, Trump reversed Obama's orders now Biden reverses Trump's, obviously, the crony capitalism system is broken and dysfunctional, these items should be argued in Congress and an official bill developed and voted on, and then legislation placed into permanent law, as the Founding Fathers intended the system to operate). Biden is spending money like a drunken sailor. Politicians are starting to look around and ask where is this money coming from? Treasury Secretary Yellen says go big with stimulus, otherwise, it will take even more later. This 'go big' philosophy comes from former Fed Chairman Bernanke during the 2008-2009 Great Recession. Bernanke is known as a scholar of the Great Depression, which only means he read a bunch of books on the subject, but his thesis was that one of the problems that exacerbated the 1929 great crash and 1930's depression was the Federal Reserve taking too long to act. This is why the Fed came in fast during the Great Recession in March 2009 with QE1 to save the stock market which protected the wealthy elite class. The Federal Reserve and Congress do not know what they are doing folks. It is impossible for them to know since the country has never seen the ongoing odd price behavior in markets and the economy due to the 12 years of obscene Keynesian money-printing.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 1/23/21: The CDC says Johnson & Johnson may provide positive news on its vaccine in two to three weeks. The J&J vaccine would be a game-changer since it is one shot not two like the mRNA vaccines. This is an advantage in vaccinating folks in communities of color that are apprehensive about vaccines. The J&J vaccine, however, is likely about 65% to 70% effective compared to the mRNA vaccines that are 95%-plus effective (two weeks after the second shot). The J&J drug trial data will pinpoint the effectiveness. Pfizer says its vaccine drug trial on children ages 12 to 15 is underway and fully populated but declined to say when results will be available (probably June-ish). New York has exhausted its vaccine supply. Vaccinations sites are operational in New York but now shut down due to lack of vaccine supply. Biden has a mess to sort out while Donnie lays on a lounge chair pool-side at Mar-a-Lago telling the lifeguard he won the election and the snack bar girl that he handled the pandemic perfectly (except for those 424K dead Americans). Oh no. Spain's daily new cases remain elevated at record levels for the last three days. Ditto Portugal. Indonesia reports 13.6K daily new cases yesterday the second highest on record only beaten out by 14.2K on 1/16/21. Malaysia's outbreak continues to worsen. Oh no, dear Lord. Our poor neighbors. Mexico reports 22,339 daily new cases the highest ever. 1,803 Mexicans die yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Russia continues to battle covid and at the same time political turmoil that sends people mask-less into the streets battling the riot police. In Russia, the cops always win and you are thrown in the gulag without due process. The coronavirus pandemic will continue in Russia with the big increase in social unrest.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 1/23/21: In the US, over 100 National Guard test positive for covid. Larry King, television celebrity dies at 87 years old from complications from covid. King had a list of comorbidities that reads as long as a rap sheet. Bill Gates receives the vaccine. UK PM Johnson says the new strain B117 is 30% more lethal than the original strain, however, take percentages with a grain of salt. The UK's current death rate is 1,429 Brit's per million population. 30% is 429 people so that increase would be 1,858 Brits per million population. Every human death is a tragedy especially when it is a loved one, but you always have to keep the numbers in perspective (30% sounds like a lot more than it is). Also, if the new strain is more transmissible, by definition, that means more folks become sick, and more require hospitalization, and more die. The covid ingenuity continues. In the UK, double-decker busses are being converted into mobile ambulances. They can handle four patients; two on top and two on the bottom. Officials hope the idea will help alleviate the strain on the ambulance drivers constantly transporting one patient. The busses can drive around until they load up with four. Remember the saying, "Bring out your dead" as the body cart was rolled through town during the Black Plague? Now folks are saying, "Bring out your covid" as the double-decker bus pulls up to the curb. The pandemic is a circus.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 1/24/21: The press is battering health officials and the Biden administration on the 100 million vaccines in 100 days goal. People need to chill out. As the vaccines ae produced, they are distributed. Folks should be patient. Biden said they want to strive for more than 100 million. They better or herd immunity is hopeless before the new flu season hits in September/October. Trump created this short-termism mindset with all the rosy promises that then would be forgotten when they did not pan out. The public is now programmed to expect all these short-term rosy calls and prognostications and this creates the angst around 100 million shots in 100 days. It will be what it is, no need to get all worked-up. CDC Director Dr Walensky says they do not have an accurate count on the vaccines and therefore cannot provide information to the states to help them plan. They were left a mess but they should be able to get the logistics back on track over the next week or two. Where's that general that was supposed to handle the vaccine logistics? General Halftrack? General Perna? Gus may be a brilliant general on the battlefield but that doofus could not find his way back from the men's room. Walensky proclaims that half a million Americans will be dead by mid-February.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/24/21: In a recent poll, the health officials are winning the vaccine hesitancy game. The population is slowly starting to buy what the doctors are selling. 66% of Americans are willing to take the vaccine. This number was only 51% in October. The poll must be taken with a grain of salt. Education and information remain a problem. 60% of Americans do not know where to go, who to ask, or how to go about getting a vaccine. Just think how long the vaccine lines would be if people actually knew what was going on. Biden wants FEMA to help out with the vaccination centers. Merck bows out of the vaccine race citing disappointing test results. The good news continues with the bamlanivimab drug which is slightly curbing coronavirus deaths in nursing homes. Bamlanivimab is only used for patients seriously ill. Regeneron proclaims that its monoclonal antibody cocktail prevents coronavirus in a clinical study. This is great news. Former President Trump was treated and saved with this cocktail that must be administered in a hospital.
Note Added Monday Morning, 1/25/21: In the US California, Florida and New York are the top states with the new UK variant B117 cases. The US has identified over 200 cases of the B117 strain. The original strain is D614G. These number and letter designations are greatly simplified for readability. Reference the scientific papers if you want to understand the new strains and how the P1 variant more easily enter cells. Students at the University of Michigan test positive for the new B117 strain so the university is locked down. Moderna is confident that the vaccine can handle the new strains although they say the effectiveness may not be as good with the South Africa strain 501YV2. President Biden is shutting off travel from Ireland, UK, European nations, Brazil and South Africa to halt the transmission of the new more viral strains. The Brazil strain B11248 is creating concern but there is not a lot known about it as yet. The US is woefully inadequate in its testing for new strains. Far more has to be done with the sequencing of strains so the new variants can be identified. Add this task to the bottom of the massive to-do list left behind by the orange-headed guy that golfs a lot. 67-year old anti-masker Mexico President AMLO tests positive for coronavirus. Mexico is an infected covid nest.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 1/25/21, at 2:20 PM EST: GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS CASES TOP 100 MILLION AS PER THE WORLDOMETER DATA. It is a sad and grim milestone no one wanted to see. There are 25.8 million COVID-19 cases in America. 430K Americans are dead from covid. The Brazil strain B11248 is identified in Minnesota. A person returned from Brazil at the start of January obviously bringing the new strain along. Biden speaks and after receiving more pressure over the 100 million doses in 100 days he proclaims 1.5 million doses per day. Joe gets caught up in the moment promising that anyone that wants a vaccine will be able to get one by April and herd immunity will be achieved by summertime. Biden's staff works behind the scenes to water down the proclamations. To achieve herd immunity by summer time, the vaccine dosage rate will need to be above 2 million per day.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/26/21: Vaccine supply and distribution remains a major issue in the United States, UK, France and in many other nations. Pfizer and Moderna are doing all they can but it will take time to ramp up production for these mRNA vaccines. Moderna is developing a booster shot to specifically to handle the Brazil B11248 strain. Just when you thought you hear it all, doctors are now recommending that pets be vaccinated. Oh vey. AstraZeneca says its vaccine provides less than 10% protection for seniors making it not viable in this application. Europe is embroiled in a contract dispute with AstaZeneca and upset about production delays. The Novavax vaccine is in trials currently and that information will not be available until March. Johnny John's vaccine is the big hope. No pressure, J&J, only that the entire herd immunity hopes of the United States of America rests on your shoulders, and your shoulders alone. Johnson & Johnson is supposed to release its test data and analysis in two or three weeks so fingers are crossed. This is a one-shot vaccine and does not require the stringent freezer requirements of the mRNA vaccines. If the J&J vaccine is a dud, herd immunity will not occur this year.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 1/26/21: The husband and family of Rogelia Blanco is given the sad news of her passing from covid at the Spanish care home. The family grieves and is not allowed to participate in a funeral or see her body due to lockdown restrictions. 10 days later, 86-year old Rogelia is walking towards her husband. He almost faints and has to be helped to a chair. There is an obvious mix-up at the nursing home since there is only one person in the history of humanity that ever rose from the dead. It was Rogelia's roommate that passed away. The family is elated but sadly, a different family receives terrible news. They are told their family member is fine and ready for discharge but when they arrive, they are told that she is dead. Biden buckles under the repeated questions about 100 million vaccines in 100 days. He now promises 1.5 million doses per day as a goal and says everyone that wants a vaccine can have one by April and herd immunity will be achieved by the summer time. Biden is smoking something. The US will need over 2 million vaccinations a day from now on to have any hope of reaching herd immunity by Labor Day. The game-changer would be the one-shot non-mRNA J&J vaccine but the results will not be known for another couple weeks. Biden promises that 300 million people will be vaccinated by the end of the summer. This is delusional and becoming stupid talk. There ae 330 million US citizens, and considering that, say 25%, will probably never take a vaccine, that is 83 million people. At best, if everything was perfect, only about 247 million Americans at a maximum would ever be vaccinated (unless the USA goes communist and forces everyone to take vaccines).
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 1/27/21: The UK crosses 100K deaths the first European nation to reach this grim milestone. After one year, the health officials in the US and elsewhere got it wrong. They told everyone to mask-up, wash hands and remain socially distance but the pandemic is a mess. It is a travesty that health professionals do not tell people, especially those of modest means and people of color, to take zinc and vitamin D-3 each day to boost their immune systems. It is criminal. The US passes 26 million coronavirus cases. 25% of the virus cases in the world are in America. 435,452 Americans are dead from COVID-19. The senior population is culled which maintains Social Security's solvency longer.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 1/28/21: 90% of the covid deaths are people over 65 years old. There are only 600 deaths among people under 20 years old. President Biden is promising a 16% increase in vaccine supply and says 300 million doses will be available by summer. That is fine and dandy but would not produce herd immunity. Biden is contemplating travel restrictions where a covid negative test would be required within three days flying. More restrictions hurt the airlines and hospitality industries but the restrictions may be welcomed by these businesses since it would at least start to move society towards normalcy again. Vaccine and negative-test passports are coming. Paging George Orwell, paging George Orwell. The Biden covid team conducts its first meeting of the new coronavirus task force stating, "This is a national emergency.... everything is on the table. We got a long way to go." The team says more vaccine will be released from supply whatever that means. The confusing messages continue from government, scientists, the media and doctors. FEMA will get involved to facilitate the vaccinations. More education will be provided for the public concerning the virus. Several companies are exploring the possibility of retrofitting their factories to manufacture vaccine products. In a twist from the Trump era, only scientists and health experts are conducting the task force meeting (the orange one was not hanging over people making sure they did not say anything negative that would hurt his reelection possibilities; instead of plotting political strategies, Donnie should have simply did his job and handled the pandemic and he would still be in the Whitehouse). The Biden administration says they cannot keep up with the need for vaccine supply. Twice as many whites as blacks are vaccinated in America but that is likely more due to the majority of doctors, nurses and medics being white. Biden says the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill may not be finalized until mid-March another six weeks away. January is officially the worst month of the pandemic. Over 6 million new infections occur and the month is not finished. There are 26.5 million total US cases so 23% of the covid infections in the US over the last year have occurred in the last 27 days. That's not good. Over 93K Americans die of covid in January thus far that is 21% of the total 446K covid deaths in the USA. January 2021 is as ugly as promised and sadly, may become the first month with 100K deaths. Hope not.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 1/28/21: South Carolina deaths spike to 230 souls today the deadliest day ever for the state and two time prior daily deaths. The South Africa strain, 501YV2 or B1351, is appearing in South Carolina and may be the reason behind the huge spike in deaths. Two people are identified with the variant and there is no connection between the two. The United States is pathetically 42nd in the world in sequencing the variants. That is shameful as the UK, South Africa and Brazil covid variants begin smacking Americans. Portugal reports 16,432 infections the highest ever. 303 Portuguese die the deadliest day ever. Spain continues reporting elevated cases and deaths. The WHO team finishes their quarantine period and begins the investigation into the origins of the coronavirus. Yeah, sure they do. It probably has more to do with a sex vacation. The WHO investigation is a joke, The filthy CCP and the WHO are in bed together. The investigation will reveal if the WHO wants to salvage a slight bit of their reputation, or, if they will simply commit to laying down with the communists going forward. The CCP has zero respect for human life and decency. The WHO investigation will probably report what the Beijing communist leadership tells them to. China provides funds for WHO. Do you bite the hand that feeds you?
Note Added Friday, 1/29/21: The media is referring to the South Africa 501YV2 strain as B1351 so that nomenclature will be adopted for the coronavirus articles. The original coronavirus (COVID-19) is D614G. The UK variant is B117. The South Africa variant is B1351 or 501YV2. The Brazil strain is B11248 and P1 and P2. Bear in mind, the nomenclature is simplified to aid readability. Reference the scientific white papers for detailed study of the variants. CDC Director Walensky says there are over 300 variant cases identified in the US mainly the UK strain B117. Biden says if the republicans do not agree to the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, he will go it alone. Starting Monday, all Americans must wear masks if they use any public transportation. J&J releases encouraging results with 66% efficacy for its vaccine. The effectiveness is not as great as the mRNA vaccines that are 95% effective but the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is a one-shot deal and only requires simple regular refrigeration. The IHME says as many as 85K Americans will die from the new virus strains by May.
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