SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Triple-Top; Gaps; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

There's no such thing as a triple-top (dark blue pointed lines). That's how the ole Wall Street adage goes. The reason that is said is because the third peak usually results in an upside flush higher thereby eliminating the third top (it resolves higher), and thus, there is no such thing as a triple-top. After looking at thousands of charts over the years, Keystone calls it a 50/50 proposition so the pattern is really of no use in forecasting. Keystone has seen many of these triple-tops disappear as price rockets higher and, at the same time, has seen just as many that resolve downwards and yes, triple-tops do exist. It is simply an interesting pattern and what it always will do is give you a sideways channel (light blue lines).

The sideways channel is through 3245-ish at the bottom rail and 3570-ish at the top rail. Price is at 3562 testing the top of the channel now so it is bounce or die time and the move will determine the fate of the triple-top pattern.

The early September top, 9/2/20, is 3588.11 with a closing high at 3580.84 which remains the all-time closing high. The October top, 10/12/20, is 3549.85 with the closing high at 3534.22. The Monday, 11/9/20, top is 3645.99 the highest number ever printed in history, the all-time record high, with the closing high at 3550.50. Stocks faded on Monday after the orgy intraday high at the opening bell and could not produce a new all-time closing high when the day ended.

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon, above the 20-day MA at 3439, that is above the 50-day MA at 3405, that is above the 100-day MA at 3348, above the 150-day MA at 3222 and above the 200-day MA at 3140, so a mean reversion lower is required. Price has violated the upper band so the middle band, the 20-day MA, at 3439 is on the table as well as the lower band at 3251. Note how the lower band wants to form a confluence with the upward-moving 150-day and with the lower rail of the blue channel, so price may seek support at 3220-3250 once the selling begins.

The 150-day MA is sloping higher this tool indicates that the stock market is in a cyclical bull. Bears will need to flatten and roll over the 150 if they want to create misery ahead. The purple circles show gaps below that will need filled the one from May down at 2900-ish is big enough to drive a truck through it. The stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The chart never became oversold in September and October because the vaccine hype and fiscal and monetary stimulus happy talk continued. The red rising wedge pattern is bearish.

The red lines show universal negative divergence in play. There are some tiny fumes remaining in the MACD maybe for one more day but overall the MACD is neggie d as well. The chart has no redeeming qualities; it is a bearish chart.

The pink box shows the ADX indicating that the move higher in price in August was a strong trend higher but that did not last long; the strong trend was gone in early September and then the sideways slop began. The ADX indicates that the stock market is not in a strong trend. The bulls managed to reverse a negative Aroon cross so watch to see if that reestablishes itself going forward.

The uber low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios indicate a near-term stock market top at hand and the SPX daily chart is in agreement with that hypothesis. Stocks are typically weak moving through the new moon each month and the peak in the new moon is 12:07 AM EST on Sunday, 11/15/20, so midnight Saturday night. This is the darkest time of the month so if President Trump wants to start a war action before he leaves office it would be now through next Friday since allied forces own the superior night vision technology. Where's Donnie Trump, making all his nowhere plans for nobody? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 11/16/20, at 9:06 AM EST: The bulls are running on the vaccine hype. MRNA pops +12% this morning on happy talk. The SPX rallies on Friday, 11/13/20, to a new all-time closing high at 3585.15 but not a new all-time high; that remains up at 3646. VIX is at 23.26. Volatility is up and the S&P futures are up +35 so one of them is wrong. Nazzy futures are negative. The opening bell is minutes away. This Monday's projected pop is a repeat of last Monday's Pfizer pop.