SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

The stock market antics continue, one day up, the next day down, then you do the hokey-pokey, and you turn yourself around. Remember the uber low, multi-year record low, in the CPCE signaling rampant complacency and a stock market top at hand. Cousin Frankie, that works at the laundromat in town, says he saved as much money as he could over the last five years and he took it to the local broker, Karl Chisler, who has an office between the dentist office and the flower shop, who helped him place it all in AAPL stock at 121. Frankie was bragging that he will be on easy street in a couple months.

Since traders and investors are silly and giddy these days, only seeing greed through their open eyes instead of prudent investing, it is time to find out where this top is at. Stocks are usually weak through the new moon which was on the weekend but today equities run higher on the MRNA vaccine hype. Taking a look at the SPX 2-hourchart above, the red lines show the neggie d that just printed as price makes the matching and higher high.

Interestingly, price did not have to come back up again. That top last Monday occurred on the PFE vaccine hype, and the indicators were all neggie d, so the spankdown occurs and there was further weakness likely but starting Friday, traders were sniffing-out Moderna's happy talk which buoys the broad stock market.

So the S&P 500 rallies higher and matches last week's high. The SPX all-time high is 3646 and all-time closing high is 3585. Price is up 36 points, +1% to 3621 as this message is typed going on 11 AM EST on the US East Coast. A close at this price would be a new record closing high but 25 more points are needed for the all-time high (which occurred last Monday).

Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 3567 and lower band at 3518 are on tap as lower near-term targets once the selling begins. The chart will print another 2-hour candlestick at 12 noon, sammich time, so look at that new candlestick closely to see if the neggie d remains in play which means the top is now. Another candle will print at 2 PM EST and another at the closing bell at 4 PM EST. The month may have a wild finish to it (to the downside). Remember, considering the erratic price action, erratic president and erratic coronavirus, remain on guard for a flash crash event or major pullback. What you see today may be a distant memory to your eyes a week from now.

If there is good news that hits the wires, price may poke higher but this area in here is a nice level to short from barring any happy talk. Watch the TICK machine and always when you bring on shorts you would like the TICK to be at +800, +1000 or even higher while when going long you would like to buy when the TICK is down at -800, -1000 or lower; this can help you shave off a few more pennies in your favor and every little bit makes a difference in trading. So keep an eye on things and see if she tops out between now and the close. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:07 AM EST: Whheeee! Whoooopie! The SPX is up 40 points, +1.1%, to 3625. Timmy Trader is staggering around, drunk as a skunk from Fed wine, buying stocks with reckless abandon. Franny, usually mild-mannered and reserved, is waving her shawl around in the air in a strip-tease motion as she proclaims that she is buying AAPL and AMZN at the ask. Everyday is blue skies and rainbows, as Big Iz would sing, and soon everyone will be shootin' up with happy vaccines. The drugs will make the colors of the rising stock market that much more vivid and spectacular. What could possible go wrong?.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/17/20, at 5:45 AM EST: The SPX finishes Monday up 42 points, +1.2%, to 3626.91 a new all-time closing high. Whheeee! Whooopie! America is blessed with a stock market that only goes up and never goes down. Pastor Brown, that passed the basket for a special collection on Sunday for the church's covid relief fund, secretly took the money and bot AMZN stock, believing he will help far more people as the Amazon stock continues moving forever higher to the moon. Mariam, the local librarian known for her frugality, took her entire life savings and bot TSLA, after the pop due to the future inclusion in the S&P 500, AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX and GOOGL stock. She says she wants to remain diversified. Of course this stuff is comical and reflective of the silliness at play these days. The CPC put/call ratio drops to 0.73 the lowest in a month and the CPCE drops to 0.43 printing the ongoing uber lows. Everybody and his brother are long the market and leveraged long. Analysts are outdoing each other proclaiming that SPX 3.9K, 4.0K and higher targets are guaranteed. The complacency and fearlessness is at epic multi-year highs signaling that the stock market is about to take a serious stab lower. Get out of the long side while you can otherwise you will be eating franks and beans in a couple weeks. Let the selling play out to see if it will have multi-week and month, and perhaps years, legs. It all depends on the MACD on the monthly chart as previously explained. The US stock market is placing a major multi-year top currently and the top is either in right now, or will be in a month or so; it all depends on the behavior of the MACD on the SPX monthly chart over the next 9 to 12 trading days. Plan accordingly. If you bring up the SPX 2-hour, you see the last two candlesticks at 2 PM and 4 PM pumping higher in price. The chart indicators remain in universal negative divergence so the top is in right now in the 2-hour time frame. The SPX daily chart is also in neggie d over the 2-month time frame, however, there is near-term momentum due to the Moderna vaccine hype. The top is expected today unless there is more good news hype that can extend the party. The SPX weekly chart is in universal neggie d signaling topping behavior. It looks like we are going to have some fun in the days ahead perhaps into year-end. King Baby Trump remains holed-up in the Lincoln Bedroom refusing to concede the election. Barron is sliding his meals under the door three times a day telling dad that he will eventually have to face the music.