By K E Stone (Keystone)
200,000 Americans are dead from coronavirus. That’s four
Vietnam’s. President Trump keeps bragging that “we are rounding the corner”
with the virus but many people ponder what color the sky is in his world. Over
the last three weeks, the active cases bell curve chart above is flatter than a
newlywed’s souffle, but the jury is out as to which way she breaks.
The US is at the same place in the active cases curve as early
June, a couple weeks after the Memorial Day parties and beach fun. Back then
the chart took off higher as the infection rate accelerated after the human
comingling and partying. Is the same negative fate in store for America after
Labor Day or will the virus-weary nation finally flatten the curve and roll it
over lower to create the bell curve shape declaring victory over covid?
There are over 32 million people afflicted with COVID-19
around the world. No doubt China is pleased at the results of its bioweapon
testing. The filthy communists that released the bioterrorism on the world have
the pandemic under control while the rest of the world suffers unable to tame
the covid beast.
The liberal-leaning media such as cable news CNN and MSNBC
are touting the 200K US death number since it reflects negatively on President
Trump’s reelection bid. The right-leaning media, such as Fox News, downplays
the 200K death milestone since they cheerlead for Trump. The Johns-Hopkins
virus data lags the Worldometer data by a few days which already crossed 200K.
In recent days, the news flow surrounding the pandemic is
relentless. President Trump tells fellow republicans to go bigger on the
stimulus bill. Trump obviously wants to tout a bill ahead of the election. He
does not care about the US debt; Trump only cares about reelection. It is a
shame the wealthy skate along in life without losing a beat from COVID-19 while
the common American and poor are screwed both financially and medically. The
demopublicans and republocrats, that sleep on the finest linens each evening,
cannot come together to provide a stimulus bill to help the working poor, disadvantaged
folks and people of color. It’s just another day in crony America. There will
be payback.
New virus cases in the US are hinting at moving higher two
weeks after the Labor Day parties. Students and employees are returning to
schools, universities and work. BlackRock, a major asset manager on Wall
Street, says that employees may never be 100% back in the office. Airlines are
asking the US government for more money otherwise mass layoffs will follow.
There is not enough money to bail out every company and individual in America
but rest assured that the wealthy class will get theirs.
A stink develops from a news story where 650K masks were to
be distributed to US citizens in April through the US Post Office but the Whitehouse
nixed the idea. Trump pleads ignorance on the matter when asked. Of course he
does. A manufacturer near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, says the president
cancelled their ongoing ventilator supply contract before covid hit, and then
the government ended up spending three times the cost to provide the
ventilators in the emergency situation during the springtime and early summer.
The pandemic is a daily retort of misinformation and lies from the US
government, once-renowned medical organizations and politicians. The pandemic
is a confusing mess.
The CDC is under the watch of the Department of Health &
Human Services (HHS). The Whitehouse is applying political pressure on the CDC
to show happier news on its website and to downplay aspects of the data. The CDC,
NIH and WHO reputations are soiled by the pandemic misinformation and political
influence and chicanery. The games of the elite class only serve to confuse the
common public. After over eight months of chaos and confusion, many people do
not know if they are supposed to wear a mask or not. The WHO and CDC have lost
credibility.
Last Friday evening, Trump began a campaign rally, with the
crowd mostly mask-less, when the news hit that 87-year old liberal-leaning Supreme
Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died. Trump will provide another selection
for the Supreme Court. It is odd that no one handed him a note during the
rally. Many in the crowd likely knew of her passing. Reporters told Trump the
news a couple hours later as he exited the event with rock music blaring in the
background.
The politicians are hypocrites; all of them. Years ago,
republicans blocked a justice selected by President Obama but now say they will
push through their selection. Conversely, Ginsburg herself said back then that
Obama’s selection should proceed since he is president but in a deathbed
statement, she says the country should now wait until after the election to
select the new justice. Corrupt politicians and judges are a major part of the
crony capitalism system; they keep the dishonest wheels turning.
The presidential election on 11/3/20 is not as important as
most think since America is only choosing which silver-haired white guy will be
overseeing the ongoing collapse of crony capitalism. Current polls show an
average lead of about eight percentage points for democrat Joe Biden but most polls
were incorrect during the last presidential election.
A Pew Research poll says only 51% of Americans will be
willing to take the virus vaccine when available. This is down from 70% a couple
months ago. The ongoing misinformation and confusion about the pandemic create
mistrust and people become more skeptical of a vaccine rushed through the
approval process. The pharmaceutical companies say the vaccine will be safe but
Americans are skeptical.
Dr Fauci says the US may have a vaccine readily available to
the public by April, stroking Trump that said this statement during a campaign
rally, but 10 minutes later the so-called esteemed doctor says it “might take
some time” for FDA approval. The president accuses the FDA of stalling a
vaccine to hurt his reelection (many career department staffers in government
lean left).
Trump says the final decision on vaccine approval is his. No
wonder the public is quickly losing faith in any potential vaccine. Are you
going to roll up your sleeve and receive a shot, perhaps in two stages 40 days
apart, because Doctor Donnie gave it the all-clear? It’s laughable. The
pandemic is a mess.
President Trump proclaims that all Americans will have
access to a vaccine by April. The medical professionals and doctors roll their
eyes since the consensus is that this action may not occur until next summer at
the earliest. Trump says 330 million people can have the vaccine if they want
it in only 189 days. A vaccine is not even approved as yet let alone
manufactured and distributed to every corner of the United States. In addition,
many vaccines require two dosages that are 40 days apart since the most
negative side effects will occur in that period. The president appears
delusional in his decree but he will say he is being optimistic. Pie-in-the-sky
statements ae stupid not optimistic. King Donnie said the virus would be gone
by April 2020, remember that? Oh my. As the Get Smart television show would
say, “he only missed it by this much.” People want to know facts about the
virus and receive guidance as to what to do to keep their families safe but are
only provided misinformation and happy talk that creates chaos and confusion.
The pandemic is a mess.
Trump grades himself an A+ in handling the pandemic. That
deserves a belly-laugh. King Donnie says his actions this year are
“phenomenal.” 200K Americans are dead. The jury is out as to whether the active
cases bell curve will roll over or not. Small business owners are wiped out.
Millions of people are without jobs. A stimulus bill to help the poorest folks
in society is nowhere in sight. Despite reality, President Trump touts his
great performance in 2020 standing on top of 200,000 dead bodies at a mask-less
campaign rally party with the music playing a techno beat; bomp, bomp, bomp. It
is the bread and circus days. Entertainment overrides civic responsibility.
Every day is a party, until it isn’t.
In positive news, the southern hemisphere is experiencing a
very mild flu season. Dr Fauci says the double-whammy that was feared with both
the regular flu and covid hitting at the same time this Fall and winter in the
northern hemisphere may be less of a risk. Australia had 61K flu cases last
year and this year it is a few hundred or less; nothing.
The UK is considering a second lockdown. PM Johnson is under
pressure weighing new restrictions versus the population that is growing weary
of lockdowns and other draconian rules. Johnson addresses the UK suggesting
everyone work from home (WFH is the new trendy acronym) for the next six
months; a lockdown-lite. The prime minister says there are, “difficult months
to come” and a complete lockdown is not ruled out. Europe is hit hard with a second wave of the
coronavirus and many countries are adopting a lockdown-lite strategy to try and
save their economies. Israel begins its second general strict lockdown as the
Jewish New Year’s arrives.
Taiwan is given credit for handling the virus perhaps better
than any country on the planet. Taiwan learned its lesson from the 2003 SARS
outbreak. For years, Taiwan has been focused on keeping PPE and medical
supplies fully stocked. Citizens are educated on specific guidelines and
actions to take in the event of a pandemic. Mask-wearing is not met with the
backlash that it is in countries such as the US and UK that are more
free-spirit orientated. Taiwan sprang into action with border checks and
quarantines as soon as they heard of odd pneumonia cases appearing in Wuhan.
They knew the filthy Chinese communists would lie about the outbreak, which
they did while lying in bed with WHO. The US now (floundering) is like Taiwan
in 2003.
World leaders address the UN Assembly and the major focus is
on the global COVID-19 pandemic. President Trump blames China for the 200K
Americans dead and at the same time congratulates himself on handling the virus
since the original estimates were for a couple million or more US citizens
dying. Donnie has that Hollywood perspective. Only he can slough-off 200K dead
Americans in a 10-second news bite. Trump asks UN member countries to hold
China accountable for the pandemic specifically calling the outbreak, “The
China Virus.” Filthy Chinese communist Dictator Xi refutes Trump’s claims
instead encouraging cooperation; this is what dirtbag commies say while they
stick a shiv in your ribs. Never trust a filthy communist; they will slit your
throat while you sleep.
The US active cases bell curve chart is shown above
flattening but not yet rolling over. Hopefully, the blue line will continue
lower creating the bell shape so America can declare victory over the virus. If
the maroon-colored fractal box after Memorial Day repeats now, the active cases
chart would travel higher which is a sad outcome into year-end.
The active cases curve reflects the maximum demand on the
healthcare system. The US is in the same window of time after Labor Day like
Memorial Day at the end of May. The hope is that the parties, beach fun, opening
of bars, restaurants, colleges and schools, campaign rallies, protests, riots
and people returning to work will not create another move higher in the chart.
Americans are experiencing pandemic fatigue letting their guard down which may
also contribute to more cases. Kids that are back in school are in danger of spreading
the virus to older folks and teachers.
The new case peak date for the United States occurred on 7/24/20
(blue circle) with 78,615 cases and the peak in active cases occurs on 9/1/20 (green
circle) with 2,586,596 ongoing cases. It took 39 days from the new cases peak
date to the active cases peak date. As per the Keystone Model, 28 days was the
projection, so the active cases curve took an extra week to peak out. The jury
remains out, however. On 9/20/20, last Sunday, the active cases hit 2,569,830
teasing a disastrous breakout higher with the active cases chart but the data
now remains calm and flat. Keep your fingers, and toes, crossed. The US blew it
every time the bell shape tried to form (orange dashed lines); is this time
different?
The US new cases chart 7-day moving average is flat. If you
reference the US state list below, 35 states are experiencing high new cases
over the last month and many in recent days. The 7-day MA averages the last
seven days of data and several states have printed new record highs. Therefore,
the 7-day MA will likely drift higher over the coming days. This is worrisome
since the new cases increasing will lead to the active cases curves rising. The
next few days determines the longer-term virus fate of America into year-end
and beyond.
The US death chart is shown above. Over 200K Americans have
perished. That is four Vietnam’s. The IHME lowers its past dire forecasts now calling
for 378K dead Americans by year-end. The worst case scenario is 446K dead. The
Keystone Model curve-fits the data and projects that the deaths may remain
below 250K this year as long as the active cases bell curve chart rolls over
and dies. If the active cases chart begins rising again, all bets are off and
there may be over 400K deaths by January.
Many of the most fragile Americans with heart and lung
disease, diabetes, and other ailments, and that are also up in years, have
fallen to covid. Perhaps the death curve will flatten quicker than the IHME
projects since many folks becoming infected with covid now are younger and
healthier and will fight the disease easier.
Health experts are not optimistic that the virus pandemic
will end in the near term with Fall beginning two days ago. As the weather
becomes colder, people will congregate indoors where the virus spreads easier.
Building ventilation and filtration is key since the virus droplets can be
recirculated in closed spaces. Virus particle droplets remain aerosolized
longer in the dryer, less humid air. On top of these concerns, the regular
yearly flu strains may further complicate the final months of 2020 (the regular
flu and covid hitting at the same time in a couple months is a major worry of
Fauci).
Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), developed and released
from the bioweapon laboratories in Wuhan (there are two labs not one), has
infected over 32 million people around the world murdering over 982K souls
(almost one million). 24 million people have recovered. The Chinese communists
unleash bioterrorism upon the planet.
The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has
attacked and sickened over 7.1 million Americans (2.2% of the 330 million US population;
1 in every 50 citizens), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering nearly
207K United States citizens. 4.4 million people have recovered. America is only
4% of the world’s population but has one-fifth (22%) of the coronavirus cases
and one-fifth (21%) of the deaths.
China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world and now brags
that the virus is under control in their commie nation with cases approaching
zero. The communists are getting back to normal while the rest of the world
cleans up their ongoing bioweapon mess. China owes the world restitution for
releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu on the world’s population. China must
pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity.
President Trump is stepping up the rhetoric against red
China. US-China relations have soured since the Chinese released the virus upon
the world. Both countries are hassling and expelling foreign journalists and
diplomats from their respective nations. The UN rhetoric is nasty with US and
Chinese officials exchanging barbs. There is a whiff of protectionism in the
air which exacerbated the Great Depression in the 1930’s. Trump mentions a
US-China decoupling and says, “I’ll limit economic ties with China.”
When the active cases chart above was flattening and rolling
over in late May and early June as a sign that the pandemic was abating, President
Trump needed to be encouraging mask-wearing and a final couple-week push to
stay home as much as possible (through Memorial Day) to nip the virus in the
bud like most other nations. He did not and the opportunity was lost.
Trump still does not encourage mask wearing or social
distancing. The pandemic remains a chaotic and confusing mess for citizens
which increases the fear and angst in the population. People have been feeling
a bit more comfortable about the direction of the pandemic over the last couple
weeks but if the active cases turns upwards again, the US is screwed into
year-end. People will experience mental anguish if the active cases chart
travels upward again; it will mean the holidays will be lousy this year.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world followed by India, Brazil, Russia, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Spain, South
Africa, Argentina, France, Chile, Iran, UK, Bangladesh, Iraq, Saudi Arabia,
Pakistan, Turkey, Italy, Philippines and Germany. Columbia and Peru switch
places. Spain and South Africa switch places. France moves up two slots on the
list. Iraq moves up four positions on the list (getting worse). Philippines
appears on the list.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes, actually
12 days this time, and more data and information are available. This is Article
20 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for
historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This
twentieth article is published on Thursday, 9/24/20.
The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are
the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the
ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the
worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States;
Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave
Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus
Article 13 published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan,
Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions
Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14
published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US
Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive
Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases
Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave;
European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill;
RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru,
Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave;
Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North
Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware,
Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress
Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States
Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill;
COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on
9/12/20.
The Worldometer web site is useful in tracking coronavirus (COVID-19)
around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus
series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by
Keystone.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM)
forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region
which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The
Keystone Model monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region
and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once
this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on
how the virus situation is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South
Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). Even the second wave outbreaks in
Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in the same time
period as the initial wave. If the country is not well-prepared, like the US, the
active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US
state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active
Cases Peak Date.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is
important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data may be retreating but the active
cases curve is far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with
fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the worst of the virus which
creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system. Other semi-recovered patients are sent home
or to other medical facilities or nursing homes and not counted in the
hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system. The
coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the active cases curve rolls
over lower forming the bell shape.
After many months, the US active cases curve finally
flattens and hopefully will move lower to create the bell shape. The discussion
about ‘flattening the curve’ pertains to the active cases bell curve chart and
not to the new cases bar chart. The media and citizens are confused with the
charts and data since medical officials and politicians do not properly explain
or understand these concepts themselves. Perhaps they want to keep the public
in the dark.
The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for
forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new
case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases
is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date
where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to
project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of
higher high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that
region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to
zero.
The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20 with 78,956 new
cases in one day. Adding 28 days, provides a target date of 8/21/20 for the US
active cases to peak and it peaked on 9/1/20 (as long as the Labor Day party
weekend and schools reopening do not create a reacceleration in new cases).
Reference the chart above.
The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with
their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are the United States
of America (tentatively; the curve above is flat as a pancake but remains a
coin-toss), Brazil, Colombia, Peru, South Africa, Chile, Bangladesh, Saudi
Arabia, Pakistan, Bolivia, Qatar, Dominican Republic, Panama, Kazakhstan,
Philippines (data is messy), Egypt, Kuwait, Sweden (data is incomplete), Guatemala,
China, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Honduras, Venezuela, Bahrain, Nigeria,
Singapore, El Salvador (although a second wave may be on the way) and Croatia.
The 40 worst global hotspots that have not yet flattened the
curve are highlighted in the list below with their projected peaks in active
cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical system) provided.
Mexico
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart may have peaked 9/14/20)
8/28/20 New Case Peak Date
9/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
9/14/20 New Case Peak Date
10/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
9/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
9/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
9/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
10/16/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
10/16/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/18/20
New Case Peak Date
10/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
9/19/20 New Case Peak Date
10/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (data is problematic)
9/19/20 New Case Peak Date
9/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart spiking higher)
9/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since mid-May)
10/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
9/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since mid-July)
10/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
9/20/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases since April and early May)
10/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/21/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/2/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; data is problematic)
9/21/20 New Case Peak Date (huge
spike highest new cases since 4/1/20)
10/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/22/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since early May)
10/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(enormous spike higher; highest new cases ever)
10/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 9/22 and 9/23)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(several days of highest new cases since May)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since mid-July)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 9/17 and 9/23)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 9/19 and 9/23)
10/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
10/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (only
higher new case day is 4/10/20)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since late June early July)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 9/17 and 9/23)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
North Korea (no virus data is available;
the hermit kingdom is in famine; there are rumors that Kim Jong-un may be dead; a military parade is planned in a couple weeks so the world can see if the murderous dictator is still kicking, or not)
One of the things that catches
your attention in the data is the countries that are printing new all-time
highs in new cases. The outbreaks, as measured by the number of new cases, are
larger than in the late winter and springtime!
Indonesia, Argentina, Belarus,
Ecuador, Moldova, UK, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, France, Germany, Poland,
Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, UAE, Iran, Israel, Iraq, Finland,
Switzerland, Greece, Canada, Hungary, Oman, Ireland, Austria, India, Nepal,
Belgium, Italy, Costa Rica, Morocco, Czechia and Bahrain are the worst virus
nations on earth with the fastest accelerations of new cases occurring.
Europe is in trouble as the list
highlights. Even eastern Europe that bleeds into Ukraine, Turkey and Russia. Poland
is hit with a third wave. The UK is in COVID-19 Hell which forced Prime
Minister Johnson to impose new lockdown-lite rules. Europe’s economy is
teetering on the edge so the continent wants to keep businesses open and
workers working as much as possible but considering the rampant ongoing spread
of coronavirus, they may be screwed. If Europe sinks economically, however, so
will the US and China. Note to self; cancel the trip to Europe.
The France active cases chart is
shown above. The curve has gone straight vertical. France is in deep trouble.
The virus is spreading like wildfire. The Keystone Model does not forecast a
top in the active cases curve (maximum strain on medical facilities) until
10/21/20. France is like the US and other Western countries; people like to
party. The French could not put down their wine, baguette and cigarettes; it
was too much to ask so now they pay the price for their evening fun and
comingling. To many it was probably worth it. Oui, oui, mon cheri.
India remains in the coronavirus
quagmire but at least shows some stabilization and perhaps a way out of the
pandemic nightmare. Canada leaves its guard down as evidenced by the new cases
spiking higher. PM Trudeau runs to a microphone and proclaims that he will do
whatever it takes to fight the virus. The Canucks must be snuggling to keep
warm these days. Israel imposes a strict lockdown so it will be interesting to
see if they bring covid under control quickly, or not.
The shame of the pandemic is that
free societies are hurt more than communist and dictatorial governments. China
brought the virus under control quickly because they told the population to stay
at home and they mean it. If you walk outside you receive a bullet in your head
and your family is sent a bill for the cost of the bullet. This draconian
society will obviously defeat a virus faster than Western cultures that like to
roam around and experience life in a more carefree manner.
Watch for King Donnie to welcome
Morocco into the Middle East/Northern Africa peace agreement alongside UAE and Bahrain. The
coronavirus is hitting Morocco hard and they likely need help fighting the
pandemic so they will probably play nice and join the peace club and in return
receive help from the West in fighting the virus. Oman and others are in the same virus boat.
For America, the troubled US states
are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve
will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The
top 14 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California
(worst), Texas, Florida, New York, Georgia, Illinois, Arizona, New Jersey,
North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Alabama and Ohio. The list has
not changed over the last three weeks.
Texas, Florida, Illinois, Arizona,
Pennsylvania and Ohio are key battleground states for the presidential election
on 11/3/20 so voters may choose a candidate depending on how the virus plays
out over the next 40 days. Pennsylvania is extremely important to both Trump and
Biden and a second wave is starting to appear in the Keystone State.
Typically, the future president,
be it Trump reelected or Biden elected, will win Florida and Ohio. Florida
election results should be known by about 9 PM EST on 11/3/20 and that should
indicate which silver-haired white guy will win.
The 15 US states that have
successfully created the bell shape on the active cases chart are Texas,
Florida, New York, New Jersey (carefully watch for a potential second wave
starting), North Carolina (messy data), Tennessee (data is problematic),
Louisiana, Ohio, Massachusetts (but watch for a potential second wave
starting), Mississippi, Nevada, Connecticut, New Mexico (but stay on guard
since a second wave may be starting), District of Columbia (DC), New Hampshire
(but watch out for a second wave) and Vermont.
Below is a listing of the 35 states
having the most trouble in dealing with the covid pandemic. The worst states
are at the bottom of the list. California is of grave concern since its active
cases chart prints a new higher high and since it is such a big state, this may
push the US active cases curve chart higher which would create major trouble
into year-end.
Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/24/20 (8/8/20
is a big new cases day)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/21/20 (may have peaked 9/19/20)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/21/20 (chart continues higher)
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/23/20 (chart may have peaked 9/21/20)
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/4/20 (chart continues higher)
New Case Peak Date 8/11/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/8/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 8/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/9/20 (chart continues higher)
New Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/11/20 (chart continues higher)
New Case Peak Date 8/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/21/20 (data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 8/26/20
(highest cases since early August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/23/20 (chart chopping sideways)
New Case Peak Date 8/28/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/25/20 (chart may have peaked 9/21/20)
New Case Peak Date 9/2/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/30/20
New Case Peak Date 9/3/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/1/20 (data is problematic)
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 9/4/20 (highest
cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/2/20
New Case Peak Date 9/8/20 (highest
new cases since April and May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/6/20
New Case Peak Date 9/11/20
(highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/9/20
New Case Peak Date 9/12/20
(highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/10/20
New Case Peak Date 9/13/20
(highest cases since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/11/20
New Case Peak Date 9/14/20
(highest cases since 5/8/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/14/20
New
Case Peak Date 9/17/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/15/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
New
Case Peak Date 9/18/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/16/20
New
Case Peak Date 9/19/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/17/20
New
Case Peak Date 9/19/20 (highest new cases on 9/18 and 9/19)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/17/20
New
Case Peak Date 9/20/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/18/20
New Case Peak Date 9/21/20 (highest new cases
since early April)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/19/20
New
Case Peak Date 9/21/20 (highest new cases since early August)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/19/20
New
Case Peak Date 9/22/20 (highest new cases since early August)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/20/20
New
Case Peak Date 9/22/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/20/20 (data is problematic)
New
Case Peak Date 9/22/20 (highest cases ever on 8/31 and 9/22)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/20/20
New Case Peak Date 9/22/20
(highest new cases since August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/20/20 (chart continues higher)
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/21/20
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20
(highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/21/20
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20
(highest cases ever on 9/18 and 9/23)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/21/20
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20
(highest new cases ever on 9/21)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/21/20
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20
(highest new cases since April and May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/21/20
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/21/20
That is a sad picture above. With
so many states printing the highest new cases ever and some with new cases at
highs going back to the April and May highs, the US active cases curve may
start moving higher again. Pray that it does not. America is at the key
inflection point a couple weeks beyond the Labor Day parties and a week or two
into schools and universities reopening. Wil the active cases bell curve chart
rollover as everyone hopes, or will Americans be slapped in their mask-less faces
as the curve spikes higher?
The worst virus states are
Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Oregon,
Missouri, Montana, Idaho, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota, Utah, Oklahoma,
Wisconsin and Arizona. Many are in the heart of the Midwest where Trump needs
the votes. The Dakota’s are smacked hard with the lingering effects of the
Sturgis motorcycle rally. Everyone had their fun and they continue to pay the
price. Utah issues an executive order telling citizens to stay at home.
Trump’s mask-less campaign rallies
help create the poor numbers in Michigan, Oklahoma, Arizona and elsewhere.
Colorado is in a third wave. Florida is a key state in the election that both
Trump and Biden need to win. The polls show a dead heat. Trump is kissing Cuban
butts today to scrounge up votes. Florida has rolled-over its active cases
chart so that is a plus for Donnie. Social unrest, protests and riots are
occurring in Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington and Michigan which contribute to the
spread of covid.
The active cases curve continues
higher for the 35 states listed above, or the new cases have printed new highs
over the last couple days, which will likely lead to a ramping higher of the
active cases chart.
For any state that has not yet
reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new
cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell
curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If
subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are
within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak
date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The states at
the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare
workers and medical equipment.
Monitor the US active cases bell
curve chart provided above to see if it continues flattening and rolling over
to provide a much-needed rest for the healthcare workers, emergency medics and
medical equipment. Considering the increase in new cases and ongoing higher
active cases curves in the 35 states listed above, the road ahead does not
appear rosy but for now, one can hope that the US active cases curve will
continue rolling over. The answer will be known in the few days ahead. If the
US active cases curve begins moving higher again, America will be screwed into
year-end. The disappointment and increase in infections would demoralize much
of the population.
The US government is sponsoring
commercials on television advising people to stay home, social distance, wash
hands and wear masks but many folks are experiencing pandemic fatigue and
letting their guard down. Others see that President Trump refuses to wear a
mask so they refuse as well. Trump, however, does not tell his mask-less
followers that he is tested each day for the virus and his health is guarded in
many ways unavailable to the huddled masses worshipping at his feet. Missouri
republican Governor Parson, who is lax about wearing a mask, tests positive for
covid. His wife also tests positive.
The US stock market has been
selling off in recent days. The economy will falter unless Congress provides a
stimulus bill but Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin continue
talking past each other. Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Powell testified on the Hill
this week touting the need for fiscal stimulus.
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