The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia, Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru, Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave; Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18

By K E Stone (Keystone)

Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), developed and released from the bioweapon laboratories in Wuhan (there are two labs not one), has infected over 26 million people around the world murdering over 864,000 souls. 18.3 million people have recovered. The Chinese communists unleash bioterrorism upon the planet.

The Wuhan killer flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened 6.3 million Americans (1.9% of the 330 million US population), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering nearly 190,000 United States citizens. 3.5 million people have recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-quarter (24%) of the coronavirus cases and almost one-quarter (22%) of the deaths.

China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity. The communist economy is returning to normal while the rest of the world sinks in the covid quagmire. The lying communists know a lot more about coronavirus than they are sharing with the world. Never trust a filthy communist; they will slit your throat while you sleep.

President Trump is stepping up the rhetoric against red China. US-China relations have soured since the Chinese released the virus on the world. China claims 4,700 people died during their handling of the pandemic but Trump proclaims that 10’s of thousands of Chinese died from the virus. The president does not offer any proof but there would not be any evidence available since it is a communist state.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world followed by Brazil, India, Russia, Peru, South Africa, Colombia, Mexico, Spain, Argentina, Chile, Iran, UK, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, France, Turkey, Italy and Germany. Peru leapfrogs South Africa. Colombia leapfrogs Mexico. Argentina moves up two places on the list. Bangladesh leapfrogs Pakistan. France moves up two places and Turkey moves up one place. Russia joins the USA, Brazil and India in the 1 million total virus cases club.

Europe is clearly fighting a new outbreak of coronavirus with Spain, France and Italy on the list above. Also Turkey and Russia. Europe is on shaky ground economically, as is the rest of the world, and may take the whole planet down if the virus rapidly spreads again. Europe is China’s main trading partner.

Australia, Hong Kong and Japan have successfully dealt with their second waves of coronavirus. Hong Kong is reopening gyms and massage parlors; the second wave subsides with a happy ending.

The United States is not yet able to affectively handle the virus like other nations and is dealing with the ongoing multi-month wave. Sadly, the United States is unable to yet flatten the active cases curve to prove that the virus is under control and on the retreat. The chart above clearly shows the many times that America started to flatten and roll over, which represents the maximum strain on healthcare staff and medical equipment, only to then bump higher again, further exhausting personnel and resources.

As the Beastie Boys sing, “Americans will fight, for their right, to par-tay!” The holiday parties, protests and riots, campaign events, beach visits and other public comingling keeps sending the active cases curve higher and higher. Medical and EMS (emergency medical services) folks must be tired of all this after many months.

It will be a glorious happy day when the active cases bell curve chart flattens and rolls over. It should be occurring anytime but now there is a worry about schools and universities reopening. Also, the Labor Day holiday is days away and folks are going to par-tay as summer draws to a close and Fall begins for the northern hemisphere. The virus remains airborne longer in low-humidity dry environments such as the inside of buildings in Fall and winter.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 18 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This eighteenth article is published on Tuesday, 9/2/20.

The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.

The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.

The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.

The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave; European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland, Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa, Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill; RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.

The Worldometer web site is useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, etc..). Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in the same time period as the initial wave. If the country is not well-prepared, like the US, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date.

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. The US active cases may be finally peaking after all these months as discussed above. The discussion about ‘flattening the curve’ pertains to the active cases chart and not to the new cases bar chart. The media and citizens are confused with the charts and data.

Errors in reporting and communicating information occur daily. It adds to the ongoing chaos and confusion with the handling of coronavirus in America. If you ask people what they think about the virus, most folks shrug their shoulders and say they do not know what to do and simply wear a mask because most other people are and businesses will not let you in without one. It is strange times.

The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new peak date. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of matching or higher high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.

The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20 with 78,663 (revised a smidgeon higher) new cases in one day. Adding 28 days, provides a target date of 8/21/20 for the US active cases to peak. Sadly, the active cases chart continues higher. The bell curve is not flattening. America is having trouble getting the virus under control due to our free spirits. Festivals and events on Memorial Day and Independence Day, political rallies, protests and riots, beach parties and now young people comingling again at the start of a school year, all contribute to the US’s inability to flatten the curve.

This is a very troubling situation since the active cases curve has tried to flatten four times since the end of July but each time the bell curve begins to roll over, it then pushes higher again like after Memorial Day which has perpetuated the virus mess for all these months. Interestingly, if the US could have been patient for only a couple more weeks back in May, and did not party on Memorial Day, the bell curve would have likely rolled over three months ago like most other nations. The Labor Day parties are quickly approaching. Americans like to spend time with each other and par-tay.

The US new cases bar chart above is also displaying a caution signal. Note that the 7-day moving average of new cases is flattening. The same thing happened in June. In March and April it was doom and gloom, then things improved and people got antsy. They ran to the beaches and did other fun things around Memorial Day and then from mid-June on it hit the fan. Currently, the US is coming off another peak, and flattening. Does America repeat the prior fractal (the prior pattern) and begin spiking higher in new cases again, perhaps due to summer fun and frolic, or, will the US new cases continue lower? Watch it closely because if new cases begin ramping higher again, the active cases bell curve will follow.

The worst global hotspots are highlighted below with their projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers) provided.

Bangladesh

7/2/20 New Case Peak Date

7/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart peaked 8/18/20)

United States (see chart above)

7/24/20 New Case Peak Date

8/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (sadly, chart continues higher; there are four failed attempts at flattening the curve over the last month; five in all; America stumbles; maybe the sixth time is the charm)

Brazil

7/29/20 New Case Peak Date

8/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chat peaked 8/8/20)

Mexico

8/2/20 New Case Peak Date

8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart may have peaked 8/31/20; give it a few days)

El Salvador

8/10/20 New Case Peak Date

9/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart peaked 8/21/20)

Philippines

8/10/20 New Case Peak Date

9/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart peaked 8/15/20 but data is a mess)

Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)

8/11/20 New Case Peak Date

9/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Belgium (Second Wave)

8/15/20 New Case Peak Date

9/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Colombia

8/19/20 New Case Peak Date

9/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart peaked 8/14/20 so data is problematic)

Bolivia

8/20/20 New Case Peak Date

9/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart peaked 8/22/20 so data is problematic)

Iraq

8/21/20 New Case Peak Date

9/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart peaked 8/28/20; give it a few days)

Germany (Second Wave)

8/24/20 New Case Peak Date

9/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart peaked 8/25/20 so data is problematic)

Albania

8/26/20 New Case Peak Date

9/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; chart peaked 8/26/20 so data is problematic)

Moldova

8/26/20 New Case Peak Date

9/23/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart peaked 8/28/20 so data is problematic)

Romania

8/27/20 New Case Peak Date

9/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Poland (Second Wave)

8/27/20 New Case Peak Date

9/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; chart is ramping higher)

Croatia

8/28/20 New Case Peak Date

9/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart peaked 8/30/20 so data is problematic)

Greece (Second Wave)

8/28/20 New Case Peak Date

9/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart spiking higher)

Argentina

8/28/20 New Case Peak Date

9/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart peaked 8/8/20 so data is problematic; chart would be expected to head higher)

Ethiopia

8/28/20 New Case Peak Date

9/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

France (Second Wave)

8/28/20 New Case Peak Date

9/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; chart is ramping parabolically (vertical) higher and appears out of control)

Switzerland (Second Wave)

8/29/20 New Case Peak Date

9/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; chart peaked 8/28/20 so data is problematic; chart would be expected to move higher)

Austria (Second Wave)

8/29/20 New Case Peak Date

9/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart may have peaked 8/31/20)

Ukraine (takes turn for the worse)

8/29/20 New Case Peak Date

9/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Indonesia (takes turn for the worse)

8/29/20 New Case Peak Date

9/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Honduras (takes turn for the worse)

8/29/20 New Case Peak Date

9/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher)

Peru (Second Wave)

8/29/20 New Case Peak Date

9/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; the chart peaked 8/23/20 so there is a problem with the data; look for potential spike higher)

Nepal (Second Wave)

8/30/20 New Case Peak Date (virus cases are worsening)

9/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Italy (Second Wave)

8/30/20 New Case Peak Date

9/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Canada (Second Wave)

8/31/20 New Case Peak Date

9/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is beginning to inch higher)

Costa Rica (takes turn for the worse)

8/31/20 New Case Peak Date

9/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Spain (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)

9/1/20 New Case Peak Date (huge spike higher; most new cases since March)

9/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Finland (Second Wave)

9/1/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since May)

9/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; second wave is ramping higher)

Ireland (Second Wave)

9/1/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since May)

9/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)

Turkey (Second Wave)

9/1/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since May and June)

9/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Czechia (Second Wave) (taking turn for the worse)

9/1/20 New Case Peak Date (highest cases ever on 8/21/20 and 9/1/20)

9/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)

UAE (United Arab Emirates) (Second Wave)

9/1/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since early July)

9/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based in 11 days; chart is moving higher)

India (conditions continue worsening)

9/1/20 New Case Peak Date

9/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

North Korea (no virus data is available; the hermit kingdom is in famine; Kim Jong-un may be dead)

There are many data abnormalities surfacing. This is likely due to the collection and government reporting of data. The coronavirus pandemic has become political in many countries. In the United States, comically, President Trump keeps calling for less testing since then there will be less cases. Nations are sensitive as to how they will be perceived post-pandemic since that will dictate economic futures. Countries that rely on tourism will be tempted to tamp down numbers.

The United States remains a disappointment. The US active cases chart above shows the ongoing failures at flattening the curve. The Memorial Day fun in the sun and beach parties as well as protests, riots and political campaigns all contribute to that failure. The current failures are after the Independence Day parties, more campaign rallies, more protests and more summer fun.

Americans are simply becoming sick of all the mask and social distancing guidelines.

Americans want to par-tay so the active cases curve continues inching higher instead of flattening. The curve is at an ideal point to flatten right now so keep your fingers crossed. Schools and colleges are reopening which could delay the flattening of the curve. Even though young folks may be less impacted by the virus and many are asymptomatic if testing positive, their interaction with older folks may create a sustaining number of new and active cases.

Canada is added to the list with a second wave since new cases spike to the highest since May. The Canadians must be partying as well. No one can blame the Canucks since they only get to enjoy two or three weeks of sunshine per year. Mexico may have finally peaked on its active cases bell curve chart; they have been through a lot the last few months.

Europe is fighting the second wave. Spain, France, Italy and other smaller nations are all watching new cases increase. Some countries are reporting new cases at highs not seen for a couple months and more. Czechia has taken a turn for the worse. India is in a world of hurt right now. Ditto the UAE. US officials are in United Arab Emirates right now implementing the newly signed peace and cooperation accord.

Many of the projections for the peak in the active cases bell curves are slipping into mid and late September. Thankfully, none of the projections are in October as yet. Fingers are crossed that all nations on earth can flatten the curve and forge a path to normalcy. It is ridiculous that the mighty United States remains mired in this coronavirus quagmire the entire year.

For America, the troubled states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top 15 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California, Texas, Florida, New York, Georgia, Illinois, Arizona, New Jersey, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Alabama and Ohio. The list is identical to 10 days ago except Alabama is added. Texas, Florida, Illinois, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio are key battleground states for the presidential election on 11/3/20.

The states that have flattened the curve (hopefully it remains that way) in recent days are Florida, California, Washington, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Oklahoma, Montana, Maryland, Louisiana (data is suspect), New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio (data is suspect), Mississippi (data is suspect), Tennessee, Nebraska, Idaho, Arkansas (data is suspect), Indiana (data is suspect), Wisconsin (data is suspect), Minnesota (data is suspect), North Carolina (data is suspect), Wyoming and Michigan.

All must be watched closely, however, to make sure the active cases curve does not suddenly poke higher again. 15 of those 24 states that show their curves flattening remain on shaky ground including Florida, California, Oklahoma, Montana, Maryland, Colorado, Ohio, Nebraska, Idaho, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina and Michigan. These states are not completely out of the woods yet but the signs are encouraging.

Below is a listing of the states having the most trouble in dealing with the covid problem.

Arizona

New Case Peak Date 7/1/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/29/20 (chart continues higher)

Georgia

New Case Peak Date 7/24/20 (8/8/20 is a big new cases day)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20 (chart continues higher)

Oregon

New Case Peak Date 7/26/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20 (chart continues higher)

Alaska

New Case Peak Date 7/26/20 (8/28/20 is a big new cases day)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20 (chart continues higher)

Virginia (Second Wave)

New Case Peak Date 8/7/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/4/20

Kentucky

New Case Peak Date 8/12/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/9/20

Hawaii

New Case Peak Date 8/13/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/11/20

Delaware (Second Wave) (conditions worsening)

New Case Peak Date 8/14/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/11/20

Rhode Island (conditions worsen)

New Case Peak Date 8/24/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/21/20

Alabama (takes turn for the worse)

New Case Peak Date 8/26/20 (highest cases since early August)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/23/20

Iowa

New Case Peak Date 8/28/20 (highest cases ever)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/25/20

Illinois (Second Wave)

New Case Peak Date 8/28/20 (highest cases since May)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/25/20

South Carolina (takes turn for the worse)

New Case Peak Date 8/29/20 (highest cases since early August)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/26/20

North Dakota (Second Wave)

New Case Peak Date 8/29/20 (highest cases ever)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/26/20

South Dakota (Second Wave)

New Case Peak Date 8/30/20 (8/29/20 highest cases ever)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/27/20

Kansas

New Case Peak Date 8/31/20

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/28/20

Missouri (takes turn for the worse)

New Case Peak Date 8/31/20 (highest cases ever)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/28/20

West Virginia (takes turn for the worse)

New Case Peak Date 9/1/20 (highest cases since 7/22/20)

Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/29/20

Alabama, South Dakota, Missouri and West Virginia are showing the quickest acceleration of cases currently. The Sturgis motorcycle rally was up in the Dakota’s a couple weeks or so ago so those hens are coming home to roost. The other three are in the heartland so the Wuhan Virus must be spreading out into rural communities.

The states listed at the bottom are in the worst shape since the new cases are peaking in the near-term. This means that the active cases curve will continue higher and not peak and roll over for at least a couple weeks or so.

The US remains in trouble until the active cases chart shown above flattens and rolls over. Only then will we truly know that there is light at the end of the tunnel for the healthcare workers and medical system. Americans appear to be less panicked about the virus. Small groups are meeting and many people do not bother wearing masks. Trump continues to not wear a mask unless absolutely necessary.

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment.

The situation improves in Florida but a stink develops around lab tests gone missing. 75K lab results were not reported by Quest Diagnostics. The company blames technical issues and say they performed over 1 million tests. Florida is relaxing restrictions on nursing homes allowing two visitors for patients but by appointment only.

The US economy is stumbling along still receiving a boost from some of the obscene fiscal and monetary stimulus doled out over the last few months. The $600 extra weekly payment to laid off workers expired at the end of July now a month ago. The moratorium on evictions also expired but President Trump signed papers, and the CDC is blessing, a continued moratorium on evictions due to the pandemic. People are still on the hook to pay the rent. Good luck with that. The landlords will never see that money from lots of their tenants. Commercial real estate is a mess.

Stimulus talks continue between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi but there is no progress. Pelosi says, “serious differences” remain. Democrats say the republicans are not acting in good faith until the dollar number of the overall package is increased. Pelosi is at $2.2 trillion versus $1.0 trillion on the republican side. The final bill will probably be in that $1.5 trillion range.

Pelosi is caught up in a mini-scandal where she is filmed by a salon’s camera receiving a hair shampoo and cutting. However, the pandemic rules are that haircuts can only occur outside and she was also not wearing a mask. Do as I say and not as I do. This is America, baby, where there is one set of rules for the elite ruling class and another set of rules for the huddled masses; land of the have’s and have not’s.

Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows, who handles the daily affairs of the president, is preparing a skinny $500 billion stimulus bill to meet basic needs. The Senate plans to vote on this bill next week and give it to Pelosi. It is all a big mess but as usual, none of the elite class miss a paycheck. The huddled masses, however, are underemployed and unemployed, trying to live on tight budgets, hoping for some additional stimulus help.

The political season grows ugly. The polls are tightening after the DNC and RNC conventions with Trump narrowing Biden’s lead. Sleepy Joe Biden emerges from the basement, stretches his bones and makes his way to campaign appearances. Polls are showing a +2% to +8% lead for Biden but that is nothing with only 62 days remaining. The polls will probably be dead flat for the election but that will set up disaster.

The election result will likely not be known on the evening of 11/3/20 as America expects. It will probably drag-out as mail-in votes are counted. 12/8/20 is the deadline for counting votes and the Electoral College has to officially report the winner on 12/14/20. In the 2000 Bush-Gore debacle, Florida ran out of time and the courts had to step in.

Both of the dirtbag tribes have their contingency plans in place already. If King Donnie is anointed to a second term of rule, the democrats will first try to find more votes in the mail system. Then they will claim that democrat votes were not counted due to post office problems caused by underfunding by Trump. The Democrat Tribe will probably pursue another Mueller-type investigation into scandals with the post office and with the president withholding intelligence information concerning Russia and other countries interfering with the election.

If Sleepy Joe wins, first, someone will have to wake him up with a swig of Geritol. The Republican Tribe will go to work on destroying him with a Mueller-style investigation, probably into the Ukraine scandal, where Biden’s son will also be targeted. This is how the end of crony capitalism occurs. Two corrupt parties always putting their selfish self interests ahead of what is good for the common American people. It is nauseating. You do not want to be a member of either tribe. Both destroyed the middle class and America over the last five decades.

This election is not important. America is simply picking which silver-haired white guy will oversee the ongoing collapse of the crony capitalism system. It’s a good thing. America will eventually get to a place where there are opportunities for everyone not just a rigged system for the rich. However, the transition there may take several years that look like the 1960’s.

The October surprises have not yet occurred. Each election, the filthiest of the obscene dirt is slung at the television screens to destroy the opponent’s reputation. Trump was sunk four years ago by a video that heard him making disparaging comments about women on a Hollywood bus. His campaign appeared dead in the water. Pretty First Lady Melania saved the day when she said that it was just “boy talk.” Everyone melted at Melania’s accent and gave Donnie the free ride to the presidency. What dirt will surface this year? The mud-slinging will begin shortly. Trump is focused on the electoral college map.

Vaccine development continues. A month ago, over 60 coronavirus vaccines were in development. Now there are over 170. All that money spent on something many people will never want. Those dollars could feed the poor instead.Treating extremely ill covid patients on ventilators with common steroids is proving effective. One in eight patients improved with the use of steroids. Doctors are incorporating steroids into their treatment protocols.

Each time happy news occurs, the stock market bumps higher. President Trump and Vice President Pence are both guaranteeing that a vaccine will be available to the American public by Christmas (114 days away). Moderna is trying to pull more people of color into their human trials since a vaccine that works on middle-aged white folks is not going to instill confidence in society. Caucasians are not contracting the illness and losing life at the pace of the blacks, Latinos and Native Americans.

One or more vaccines may involve two injections spaced about one month apart. This is going to be a hard sell to an already-skeptical American public. Lots of people refuse to get flu shots each year so it is guaranteed that none of them are going to line up for a vaccine shot. People agreeable to a vaccine shot may be turned off by having to return for another shot a month later. Also, two doses mean twice as much vaccine, vials, syringes, etc….

Dr Fauci keeps repeating that the human trials must be carried out properly so the American public has confidence in the results. The WHO announces plans to coordinate a global effort to develop, package and distribute the COVID-19 vaccine but the US will not be participating. Trump does not want to deal with the WHO since they got played by, or were in cahoots with, China, in delaying the release of information about the virus at the start of the new year. WHO lays in bed with the communists so you have to respect Trump’s decision. WHO is concerned about a second wave in the northern hemisphere this Fall and winter.

Fauci is concerned about the elevated cases of coronavirus as the Labor Day holiday approaches calling the situation “unacceptably high.” Fauci wants to see daily new cases drop from about 40K per day down to 10K per day. The peak in US news cases occurred in late July at over 70,000 per day. Dr Birx and the new head task force Dr Atlas are reportedly having disagreements about the path ahead. Trump brought in Atlas since he is more focused on restarting the economy and downplaying the virus. Birx and Fauci are more cautious.

CDC Virologist and task force team member Dr Redfield is urging states to get ready for vacine distribution on 11/1/20. They are gunning for vaccine happiness two days before the presidential election. Said cynically, that should place a lot of confidence in a vaccine that is being rushed through to meet political goals. Redfield dances a fine line between medical science and appeasing King Donnie.

The coronavirus saga continues. Watch the US active cases bell curve to see if it flattens and rolls over to finally give the healthcare workers and medical equipment a much-needed rest. Watch the US new cases bar chart to make sure the 7-day MA trails lower. If the 7-day MA curls higher, so will the active cases chart, and the US will descend into a terrible place.

Note Added Thursday, 9/3/20: The US Jobless Claims remain sick. More of the unemployed are now becoming permanently unemployed realizing that their job is gone. The S&P 500 Index, the US stock market, collapses 126 points, -3.5%, to 3455. Fauci names seven states that should be very careful during the Labor Day holiday weekend since infections are rising; North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois. Fauci forgot about West Virginia, Kansas, South Carolina and Alabama that should round that list off at 11. Trump involves himself in another mini-scandal; he does not mind, he seeks the daily attention. King Donnie tells people to vote twice in the election. He says those that vote by mail should show up at the polls as well. That is stupid since it is illegal and against the Constitution. No one cares anymore including the president. Trump does not mention his own internal polling like he did four years ago. He may be thinking that he will lose the election so he has to, in his mind, build narratives to create doubt where he can say he was cheated. That will allow him to continue on in Hollywood after the election. Both corrupt parties, as explained above, are laying the groundwork for future trouble independent of which white guy wins. CNN reports that in California 60% of the virus cases are Latinos. Sadly, the US active cases bell curve chart above continues inching higher albeit at tiny increments. On a happier note, the US new cases bar chart 7-day MA is moving a hair lower.

Note Added Saturday, 9/5/20: The US stock market drops -4.3% on Thursday and Friday. The US Jobs Report released on Friday morning is 1.4 million jobs with an unemployment rate at 8.4% down from 10.2% last month. University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation reports that US deaths may top 410,000 by January 1. IHME says the count may top 620K dead. President Trump says the US is "rounding the corner" with the virus. Fauci says, "Certain states are doing well....but a number of states .... are starting to show an uptick (in cases)." Infections may increase after the Labor Day holiday. Russia's vaccine, dubbed Sputnik V, causes limited side effects such as headache and fatigue, and generated an immune response in the small study of only 76 subjects. Scientists call for a more rigorous study but Russia is supposedly vaccinating the population and government leaders now. Putin has not received the vaccine as yet.