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Monday, August 31, 2020

VIX Volatility Chart; Bull-Bear Battle is at 28.03-28.35


It is like the night before the start of the Gettysburg battle. A lonely harmonica softly plays Shenandoah in the distance, the solemn sound echoes along the dark hollow and into frightened minds. The battleground is set for tomorrow at VIX 28.03-28.35. VIX is at 26.41 in bull territory pumping the stock market higher, however, it is only a buck and a half from danger. Danger, Will Robinson, Danger!

The Keystone Speculator's VIX 200-Day MA Signal dictates a bull versus bear market in the short term. The bulls are winning right now with the VIX below the 200-day MA at 28.03. The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long but is champing at the bit to go short for one day running. The quant is tracking VIX 28.35 as the key bull-bear line in the sand. Thus, the danger zone is 28.03-28.35 where the wheels fall off the stock market bus.

If the VIX remains below 28.03 the bulls are whistling dixie as stocks remain elevated. If the VIX moves above 28.03, the wheels will fall off the stock market. You will visibly notice stocks dropping like rocks. If the VIX moves above 28.35, turn out the lights, the party's over. All good things must end as Willie says. Everyone is drinking too much party wine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 9/1/20, at 5:52 AM EST: S&P +11. VIX 25.71.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 9/1/20, at 5:20 PM EST: SPX prints a record high at 3528.03. VIX 26.12. The battle continues..

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/2/20, at 3:30 AM EST: USD 92.56. Euro 1.1875. Time will tell if the euro longs and dollar shorts panic. S&P +17. VIX 26.02. Futures are happy on upbeat virus talk and stimulus promises. Comically, US stocks and futures go up regardless of whether the dollar is up or down.

Note Added Friday Morning, 9/4/20, at 4:48 AM EST: Yesterday, the SPX drops 126 points, -3.5%, to 3455. The VIX jumps to 35.94 and settles at 33.60. VIX is currently trading at 32.41. Bulls will not be able to stop the selling unless the VIX drops below 28.666 (as per the Keybot the Quant algorithm).

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