Quiet. Listen to that. Do you hear it? Yes, Netflix is singing its swan song as it releases content that flops. All of you Netflix junkies know more about its content than Keystone; it seems like such a waste spending all that time watching dribble. CEO Hastings is at Nettie's bedside, telling her that she will pull through but he even knows it is hopeless. Hastings sees the neggie d on the medical charts and knows that Ms Netflix is breathing her last breaths. NFLX will become sicker and trend lower into year-end. In a timely release, new content hits the site with a pilot show called "Swan Song," set to air between 9:30 AM EST and 4 PM EST Monday through Friday each day forward. Swan Song is a situation comedy that will chronicle the coming collapse of Netflix. Sounds like a winner although in episode one Hastings is crying not laughing.
Keystone's red pen went dry marking up Netflix. Those charts are bleeding red. The monthly is cooked displaying overbot RSI and stochastics, a rising wedge, negative divergence (red lines), an upper band violation, price is extended and the up move is not a strong trend as per the ADX. NFLX is a piece of garbage going forward for the months and perhaps year or few ahead.
Keystone will let the fundamental analysts figure out why this will occur but don't hold your breath. These cheerleaders remain long and strong Netflix and Hastings so their comments will likely lean bullish. Besides, the smart money that has made their money wants to unload the shares to Joe Retail, the bag holdin' sucka. Pump and dump is the best way to accomplish that.
The ADX purple box shows the strong trend in higher from late 2013 to the start of this year; what a juggernaut. Hastings deserves credit from being laughed at for his little mail-in video service to the present day tech blue-chip that he has created. Alas, the ADX is down to 29, feeling limp after all that non-stop joy for six years. All good things come to an end. Price violated the upper band so the middle band at 365 is on the table and the lower band at 245.
On the weekly chart, same dealio. Price took that wild spike higher once the Federal Reserve again promised to print fiat money forever. Americans told to stay home went to Netflix for entertainment sending the stock price into a wild upside orgy. You can see that the chart has an expansion pattern playing out so price has a little more down to go, say the 20-week MA at 447, same as the middle band, to test that bottom rail. The ADX shows the last strong trend for NFLX was to the upside in 2018. The ADX is trying to sneak above 30 and develop a strong trend again but the jury is out. The Aroon lines are both bearish going forward.
Price violated the upper band so the middle band at 447, and rising, is in play and lower band at 360, and rising. The lower band target matches the middle band target on the monthly chart at 360-ish which is a realistic target for year-end. NFLX is set up nicely as a short going forward. Let's see, maybe the hourly and daily charts will provide clues on an entry.
The daily chart is stumbling sideways in a haze with price, the 20-day MA and 50-day all at the same confluence at 477-489. The bands are squeezing in tight so it looks like NFX is setting up for a big move. When is earnings? They were on 7/16/20. So that big spike move higher occurred three days before earnings were released last month. You wonder what the crooks were up to with that price action. The bands are also squeezing in tight on the 2-hour chart but both the hourly and daily do not provide enough information for timing; they are both staggering sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night. Pay attention to that confluence; bulls win above 489 which can be shorted while bears win below 477 where price may begin falling like a rock.
Keystone does not own NFLX long or short currently. The path ahead is to not be long Netflix but instead short NFLX on all rallies going forward for the weeks, months and perhaps a couple years ahead. If you are in NFLX for the last few years and sitting on big bags of dough, git while the gittin' is good. Netflix is singing its swan song. The path forward is darkening. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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