NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Bulls and Bears Continue Battling at the 40-Week MA at 12470

The Keystone Speculator's NYA Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cross Cyclical Market Indicator is a key bull-bear battleground currently. The NYA 40-week MA is at 12470 and is the demarcation line between a cyclical bull, or cyclical bear, market going forward (weeks and months ahead). Thus, NYA 12470 takes on huge importance. It tells you how the stock market direction will move not only in the near-term but also into year-end.

For now, the NYA is at 12462 below the 40-week MA so the stock market remains in the cyclical bear market pattern since March. It is a huge deal if the bulls can take out 12470 to the upside; it will prove that they have the beans to take stocks to new record highs. Of course if the bulls stall here, and the NYA begins rolling over lower, the situation could get extremely ugly very fast. Trading volumes are trailing off as price floats higher.

The Keystone Speculator's SPX Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross Cyclical Market Indicator is another key market signal. The SPX is at 3216 well above the 12-month MA at 3029 indicating a cyclical bull market since May. Both the NYA 40-week cross and SPX 12-month cross must agree to verify stock market intermediate term direction. As you can see, the SPX says stocks are in a cyclical bull but the NYA says they are in a cyclical bear. The market pushed the NYA price higher so it will decide now if it wants to jump into the bull camp with the SPX 12-month, or not.  It is sunshine and roses if the NYA moves above 12470. It is doom and gloom if the NYA fails here and trends lower. If so, this will likely set up a test for the SPX at the 3029 number where the bears will determine if they have the juice to take stocks lower. If SPX 3029 gives way, the stock market will be on crash watch.

The NYA 1-minute chart is shown above to show the bull desperation during the last hour of trading yesterday. The bulls know they must push the NYA above the 40-week MA at 12470 right now or they are screwed. It is now or never. The bulls stormed the bear castle at 2:30 PM EST but were smacked backwards. The bulls regroup and assault the 12470 resistance again only to receive another smackdown. The bears are having fun. Each time the bull's head pokes above 12470 to see if the coast is clear, thwack, the bull's are hit with a hickory axe handle. The bulls, dizzy from their tries at 12470, muster up the courage and strength to try once more before the weekend. At 3:10 PM they run enthusiastically at the bears and the 12470 victory line in the sand knowing the Fed has their back but the bulls are cut down like cannon fodder. The bulls are in retreat. The NYA tumbles to 12427. The bulls crawl to a smartphone and ask Fed Chairman Powell to crush volatility to save and stabilize the day. He does.

Watch the NYA out of the gate Monday morning. As the NYA goes, so goes the stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.