NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Bulls and Bears Battle for Cyclical Market Control at the NYA 40-Week MA Cross

Two of the most important intermediate and long-term stock market indicators are The Keystone Speculator's SPX 12-Month MA Cross Indicator and The Keystone Speculator's NYA 40-Week MA Cross Indicator.

For the SPX monthly chart, the 12 MA is at 3029. The S&P 500 is at 3216 almost 2 hundo points above this major bull-bear line in the sand signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. Bulls are singing songs and carryin' on. However, there is a fly in the soup. Keystone asks the waiter, "What is that fly doing in my soup!" The waiter takes a long look, remains calm, and says, "The backstroke?" The NYA 40-week MA is at 12482. NYA price is at 12350 in the bear camp signaling a cyclical bear market ahead. Hence, the quandary.

Both of these parameters must agree in the same direction to guarantee that direction ahead. The stock market remains conflicted with the SPX 12-mth MA cross signaling a cyclical (weeks and months) bull market ahead while the NYA 40-wk MA cross signals a cyclical bear market ahead. One of them will flinch and reveal the path ahead for the stock market on an intermediate and longer term, say through the end of the year.

Today is it all on the line for the bears as the NYA moves higher to test the 12482 resistance. This is epic stock market drama occurring in real-time. The bears are going to get beaten like a rented mule if the NYA takes out 12482 and trends higher. If, however, the NYA stalls here, and begins drifting lower, and goes sub 12K giving up the ghost, the stock market is likely in major trouble into the EOY. If the SPX then falls, as it should do in the near term considering the rampant complacency and negative divergence on the hourly and daily index charts, below 3029, it is lights-out for stocks and the market may crash.

In early June, the NYA came up with the bulls ready to prove that they were the big shots on campus, but smack, the NYA was spanked lower taking the last six weeks to regroup and make another run at the 40-week MA resistance. Does price receive another spankdown or will it pierce up through? The HOD yesterday was 12420 only 62 points away from bull victory.

Considering the erratic and unstable price action, bubble valuations, rampant complacency and negative divergence, expect anything ahead including a flash crash or Black Monday. The happy talk keeps stocks buoyant this week. The vaccine hype pumped stocks, then the Fed jumped on top for some more pumping promising never-ending stimulus, then Madame Lagarde took her turn pumping yesterday, then President Trump pumped all night long promising a payroll tax cut. S&P futures are up +9 with the VIX at 27.26. Donnie is not getting much bang for his pump.

Keep watching the VIX 200-day MA at 26.60. The bulls rule and bears are toast if the VIX drops below 26.60 now at 27.26 only 66 pennies away.

Keybot the Quant remains long while across the board Keystone's individual stock and index plays are on the short side. What an odd and rare split that is. Something's going to give over the next couple days.

Watch UTIL 828 which is uber important for all of next week. UTIL is at 810. If UTIL ends today above the 828 palindrome, the bulls will rule next week. If UTIL ends today below 828, stocks are in trouble next week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/18/20: The VIX falls to 25.68 below the key 200-day MA at 26.63 so the bulls cheer and maintain stock market buoyancy. The SPX is at 3225 remaining negative on the year albeit by only 6 points (2020 begins at 3231). The NYA ends at 12403 so the story will be told come Monday. UTIL ends at..... wait for it ..... wait a bit longer for it ......no, you really need to wait a bit longer for it...... the 828 palindrome. As utilities go, so goes the stock market. As the NYA index goes, so goes the stock market.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/21/20, at 1:49 AM EST: VIX has a 24-handle. The NYA prints a HOD on Monday at 12433 and closes at 12393. The 40-week MA is 12468. The battle continues. UTIL stumbles lower to 817. Interestingly, stocks rally but the bears held their ground. The NYA index and utilities like the bear camp. Something's gotta give.