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Friday, June 5, 2020
SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart
There are wild times ahead. This is where you are starting to see tiny little eddies in the water, white foamy semicircles dancing at the tip of the oar, you look ahead and catch the first glimpse of the rapids. A lump forms in the throat.
The month of June should be quite dramatic for the stock market. The SPX hourly and daily charts are set to roll over and should receive the spankdown from the uber complacency and euphoric fearlessness in the markets currently. The CPC and CPCE put/calls are at significant lows verifying the lack of worry by traders. Ditto the elevated NYMO. Traders know that the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers will keep printing money forever so you never have to worry about stocks ever going down again. Moral hazard has arrived. Of course the party eventually does end.
So a spankdown is guaranteed for the stock market over the coming days. The bulls are trying to keep things afloat into next Wednesday when Fed Chairman Powell may announce more Keynesian goodies to pump stocks even higher. The US Monthly Jobs Report is a couple hours away here on Friday morning on the US East Coast. ECB President Lagarde displayed her bazooka's yesterday and they were larger than expected. If these three distractions were not occurring, the near-term top would already be in for stocks. Thus, the stock market will peak out any minute, any hour, any day ahead.
Perhaps the jobs report will sink the ship? A good report would likely send stocks lower while a bad report will create more upside for equities. In these perverse central banker-controlled markets, for over 11 years, bad news is good news for stocks and visa versa. If the economic news is bad, that means the Fed will keep printing money which means stocks will go higher. The people that are proud of this sick financial system are the ones feeding off the Fed teat.
The SPX weekly chart is shown because of the RSI, MACD and stochastics long and strong indicators. Money flow is waning and the Chalkin is in neggie d. The reason this is key is that stocks are set to drop like a rock right now in the hourly and daily time frames (unless the jobs report or buoyancy into the Fed meeting next week keeps the turd afloat a few more days) and the drop will probably be from 100 to 300 SPX handles. The happy weekly chart, however, introduces more excitement.
Stocks are set to drop in the daily time frame but the weekly time frame wants price to come up for another matching or higher high/s. This opens the door to a flash crash scenario where the SPX flushes lower super fast creating panic but enough dip-buyers and Fed-believer's are there to start buying and the stock market then catapults to a recovery back to current prices. Then price moves sideways for a week or two for the weekly chart to go neggie d where the stock market will then trail lower for multiple weeks, say from June into August.
Barring the flash crash, the way it may play out is the SPX drops like a rock now, for a few days, and the losses are deep, but then after a few days, stocks recover and over the next few days manage to find their way back up, say a round trip in two weeks time. Then price chops sideways for a week or two so the weekly chart can go neggie d and then stocks drop for multiple weeks June into August.
It is interesting that Chairman Powell speaks next Wednesday. It may end up being the most important talk of his life. If stocks begin the drop today, after the jobs report, they will be cooking lower by hump day next week. Powell may have to speak with the SPX 200 or 300 points lower than it is right now. That would be interesting. If so, a rally will likely occur and as per the prior examples, after a couple weeks for the weekly chart to go neggie d, the top will be in on the weekly basis, and stocks will retreat probably from mid-June-ish into August.
The above at least gives you a better nuance as to what is coming. A big drop is on tap right now but it is only on the daily basis not both the daily and weekly basis as yet. The weekly chart should top out in 2 or 3 weeks. The Aroon negative cross remains in play. There is a huge gap up above at 3250-3330 big enough to drive a truck through it. The gap will need filled at some point in the future but will it be in 2 or 3 weeks or will it be in 2 or 3, or more, years?
We are going to see epic price action over the next couple weeks. Starting now, strap yourself in to your computer chair. Place your helmet on your head but remove the tin-foil cap first. Secure your shoulder harness. Tighten the strap. Now you are ready. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 9:17 AM EST: The Jobs Report is a big upside surprise (although data remains confusing). S&P futures are up +64 points a big rally on tap; the party is in full swing. Bonds are sold off and stocks are bot.
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