NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Week MA Determines Cyclical Direction into Year-End

The Keystone Speculator's NYA 40-Week MA Cross Cyclical Market Indicator turns bullish on Friday but give it a week or two to see if it sticks. If the NYA is above its 40-week MA, the stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern. If the NYA is below its 40-week MA, the stock market is in a cyclical bear market pattern.

Equities were in a cyclical bear market until Friday. The NYA is at 12641 above the 40-week MA bull-bear line in the sand at 12632 signaling a cyclical bull market for the weeks and months ahead; stocks should remain buoyant for the remainder of the year. The bulls are singing songs, carrying on, all weekend long, they can do no wrong. However, wait for confirmation. The bears had better spank the NYA under 12632 pronto or they will lose going forward.

The 50-week MA is 12689 so use that as a gauge to see if price is truly bullish. If the NYA blasts up through the 50 and remains above, it will be off to the races. The bulls will be parading around like a 6th grader that just received a first kiss. The NYA tested the 50-week on Friday, pumping up through 12689, with a HOD at 12752 before retreating lower. 

Friday HOD 12752
50-wk MA 12689
Price 12641 (starting Monday)
40-week MA 12632 (40-week MA cross dictates whether the stock market is in a cyclical bull market or cyclical bear market)

Use the NYA 40-week MA cross to gauge your intermediate and long-term positions. If you are long a bunch of stocks and the NYA drops back below the 40-week MA, you will get murdered since stocks will drop like rocks as the year plays out. If you are long a bunch of stocks and the NYA remains above the 40-week MA, you are likely okay through the end of the year. Watch NYA 12632 closely going forward. The 40-week MA needed a back kiss so in the week ahead we find out if the back test was successful for bears, and the NYA trends lower again, or, if the bulls want to take over and send the NYA higher and higher above the 40. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/10/20, at 7:35 AM EST: The NYA slips to 12620 below the 40-week MA at 12624 signaling that the stock market remains in a cyclical bear market pattern. Keep watching; the battle continues. Bull and bear are in a cage-match duel. Two entered but only one will exit.