When the stock market was in free fall yesterday, 6/15/20, King Donnie and Prince Powell stepped in to save the day. The president promises a $1 trillion infrastructure package and the Federal Reserve promises to start buying individual corporate bonds in addition to ETF's. The wealthy elite class, that own large equity portfolios, dance with glee. They must always be protected. Capitalism is spit on endlessly.
The uber complacency highlighted from late May into early June results in the smackdown in stocks. The president and Fed chairman probably would have preferred to wait and see panic and fear to get the maximum bang for their buck, however, they felt they had no choice since the SPX 12-month MA support failed at 3006. It was lights-out for the market. Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight. The market wizards could not wait for rampant fear and panic to show up, however, because the SPX 12-month failed and there was no time left, stocks would fall apart quickly from here.
An attractive tradeable bottom will not occur in the stock market until the CPCE moves above 0.80 and the CPC moves above 1.20. The complacency and fearlessness was rampant and that has not changed much with the CPCE down at 0.51. Traders and investors remain uber bullish and yesterday's Fed and Whitehouse Christmas candy further encourages the euphoric party. Hey, if ands and buts were candy and nuts, everyday would be Christmas.
Do not trust the rally. If you want to go long with some stocks, don't. Wait until you see the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios climb higher to show panic and fear before nibbling on the long side. It may take patience. Stocks may run up in the near-term but that is a dicey rally only for the pros. It may whipsaw back fast at any time. There remains too much complacency and uber bullish euphoria in the market. There will be interesting days ahead. Generally, keep an eye on VIX 36.42 since bulls will win below while bears win above. VIX is trading at 33.91 now, just printing a 33 handle over the last few minutes, so the bulls are happy. S&P futures are up +35. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Saturday, 6/20/20: The CPC ends the week at 0.91 and the CPCE is at 0.57. Panic and fear is lurking around the corner. Isn't it exciting? The boogeyman is in the closet and the door is slowly opening. Are you hiding under the covers or are you ready?
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.