By K E Stone
Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has
infected 9.4 million people around the world murdering 480K souls (approaching
a half-million). 5 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease has
attacked and sickened over 2.4 million Americans (0.7% of the 330 million US
population) murdering over 123K United States citizens. 1 million people have
recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has 25% of the
coronavirus deaths.
USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world followed by Brazil, Russia, India, UK and Spain the same exact order
as 10 days ago. Peru and Chile move up into the next spots verifying the
trouble occurring in South America. Italy, Iran, Germany, Mexico, Turkey and
Pakistan round out the top 14 worst nations ranked according to total virus
cases. Over the last few days, the US, India, Mexico, Pakistan and to a smaller
extent, China, have each seen a sharp uptick in coronavirus cases.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes
and more data and information are available. This is Article 11 in the
coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers,
students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives,
financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public
officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This eleventh article
is published on Tuesday, 6/23/20.
The countries and US states are listed below from best to
worst based on the spread and progression of the virus so the hot spots around
the world and in America are easily identified. The coronavirus articles are
written in real-time so it is interesting to see the progression of knowledge, thought,
hysteria and scientific information during each week of the 2020 worldwide
coronavirus pandemic. Sadly, as highlighted in the prior article, there is a disturbing realization that the health organizations are stumbling around in the dark
like three blind mice (WHO, CDC and NIH).
COVID-19 is confusing and confounding doctors and scientists
and the virus is not going away. The medical folks do not fully understand the
virus. President Trump has turned over much of the decision making to the
States so he can criticize their response in the future. Coronavirus cases are
spiking across the southern and western United States including Florida, Texas,
California and Arizona identified in the prior article.
Last Saturday, President Trump attended a campaign rally in
Tulsa, Oklahoma, which further incited racial injustice protests (the region
has a painful past in the way that blacks were mistreated, and outright
murdered, many decades ago). The president, and his so-called social internet
guru for the reelection campaign, got played by teens, and other young folks in
their 20’s and 30’s. Using message boards such as Reddit, the young folks
signed up in mass for the Tulsa rally to spoof the president. Trump worked himself
into a tizzy bragging that 1 million people signed up for the event. Trump was
convinced that the kick-start of the reelection campaign would be a huge
success. A second stage was added outside. In reality, only 6K people filled
the 19K arena. The crowd looked bigger than that such as 10K or 12K but it
really does not matter. The rally was a flop and Trump is not happy when he
looks like a chump. It appeared to be a deflating experience for the typically
upbeat showman.
The president continues to refuse to wear a mouth diaper and
folks at the Oklahoma rally follow his lead. Democrat Representative Jim
Clyburn criticizes the president proclaiming that Trump’s antics are “not
leadership, it is showmanship.” People were cheering, coughing, screaming and
yelling at the event; the hot arena air filled with aerosol droplets of unknown
human body fluids. On stage is King Donnie breathing it all in. Hopefully, the
president does not become ill with covid; nobody wants that to happen. Trump
visits Arizona today which is a hot-spot for the virus. Donnie keeps tempting
fate visiting the most infected states; it is William Henry Harrison-esque. President
Trump’s staff, that prepared the Tulsa arena including the podium and mics, become
sick with COVID-19. Up to eight people handling the Trump event are now
stricken with coronavirus including a couple secret service agents.
Americans are not used to being locked down so after a
couple months of that all caution is thrown to the wind. Folks are anxious to
get back out there and live life again but in their zeal for a return to
normalcy have brought on an accelerated wave of coronavirus cases. People are
far less diligent at following social distancing rules and with the economy
reopening, the virus is spreading quickly again in America. Most medical
professionals are calling it a continuation of the first wave of the virus
rather than the second wave that is expected in the Fall.
The economy cannot endure another shutdown. There remains 20
million people out of work. Of course most of the upper middle class and elite
privileged class have jobs where they use a desk computer and they can easily
work from home never missing a paycheck. The huddled masses, however, do not
have the same luxury. Further complicating the issue is the asinine stimulus of
providing money to laid off workers over and above unemployment compensation.
As would be expected, if people are making more money not working than working,
or at least the same comparable amount, they choose to sit home and take it
easy. Whatever happened to families saving for a rainy day? Many people live
paycheck to paycheck which leads to disastrous outcomes. The population has to
be taught to save money for unforeseen expenses but good luck with that. Where
were all the parents over the last three decades? It must be idiots teaching
idiots during this final stage in the long-term Kondratieff-style cycle.
Restaurants, that have to spend a few thousand dollars to
reopen, are closing in the states that see a rapid increase in coronavirus
cases. A restaurant cannot afford the starts and stops. Bankruptcies across all
business lines are increasing. Those are jobs that are gone forever. Apple
closes 11 stores that it had reopened creating stock market jitters. The AMC
movie chain reverses earlier guidelines and now makes masks mandatory in its
theaters. Mortgage delinquencies are the highest in nine years. 8% of the
mortgages in the US are late.
The immediate concern is the spike in coronavirus across the
US. Trump downplays the increase in cases blaming it on additional testing.
Most people are confounded by Trump’s continuing comment that the only reason
there is more cases is that there is more testing. Duh. Of course that is the
case. Trump proclaims that "if we did not do any testing we would not have any cases." That is hilarious. Donnie is the guy that hears a rattle from the vehicle he is driving and instead of being concerned over a mechanical problem and potential breakdown, he turns up the radio so the rattle disappears; problem solved. The president is receiving heat over a comment he made at the Tulsa rally
where 'he wants the medical people to slow the testing down since it will reduce
the number of cases'. The Whitehouse staff said he was kidding but now the
president says he is not. Simply add this matter to the heap of confusion and chaos with
the handling of the coronavirus situation. Trump’s job approval numbers
continue slipping. Seniors are worried about the virus and they are a huge
voting block especially in Florida. Trump must win Florida if he wants to be reelected.
State governors that scoffed at the virus and did not take
it seriously are now paying the price scrambling to enforce social distancing
rules that they laughed at a couple months ago. There was a lot of braggadocio
talk in Texas a couple months ago about how the virus saga was overblown but
now they are choking and coughing on covid. The coming days are critical to see
if this increase in cases in the US, call it a resurgence of the first wave, is
a short duration spurt or if it brings on a larger and more destructive virus
wave.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus SuccessStories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexicoand Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus TestingSupplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 BillionSpending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; CoronavirusArchive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black andLatino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina areWorst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy TurnsPolitical; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); HertzGoes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; TrumpGolfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; AmericaContinues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are TroubledStates; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening theEconomy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, SouthCarolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases areSpiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutinyfor Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article10 published on 6/13/20.
As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site
is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its
link is provided. Charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided
courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM)
forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region
which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM
monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies
the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the
active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus
situation is handled. If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the
active cases will peak 11 days after the new cases peak. If the country is not well-prepared,
like the US and other nations currently dealing with the pandemic, the active
cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add
28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak
Date.
There is bad news in the US daily new cases and active cases
charts shown above. As of the last article 10 days ago, America appeared to be
forming the peak, the top of the bell curve, on the active cases chart but
instead, the big jump in new cases creates more active cases that are also
moving higher. The top of the bell curve on the active cases chart represents
the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. Obviously, a
chart moving higher is bad and states such as Florida, Texas and Arizona are
double-checking their bed, ventilator and ICU capabilities. Texas cities are
becoming slightly concerned about the number of beds available.
The US new cases chart above shows 36,015 new cases today
basically the same number as 5/1/20 at 36,090. The peak remains at 4/24/20
where 39,072 cases occurred in one day. For modeling purposes, the 4/24/20 new
case peak date targets the end of May for the peak in the active cases chart
but the chart keeps moving higher instead. Using today, 6/23/20, as the peak
new case date since the three days listed are in the same ballpark, would
target 7/21/20 for the peak in active cases.
The Keystone Model identifies the new case peak date and subsequent
higher numbers will create a new peak. Also, if the number of new cases is within
8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the peak date where 28 days is
added to project when the peak in the active cases will occur. This behavior of
matching or higher high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting
worse in that region such as the US.
The peak new case date for the US is now 6/23/20, and adding
28 days, targets 7/21/20 for the peak in the active cases bell curve. Note the
7-day average shown on the new cases chart above. It is spiking higher which
shows an acceleration in the spreading of the virus comparable to the March
period (red lines).
The stutter-steps in the active cases chart shows that if the United States would have been more patient, and held off on wildly and quickly restarting the economy where many people did not wear masks or follow social distancing guidelines, even for just a couple more weeks, that could have led to flattening of the curve but now any hope of that is out in July sometime. The curve has now accelerated higher from the stutter-steps.
The active cases bell curves have peaked, flattened and
rolled over, or are rolling over, for the following nations that are on their
way to better days ahead barring a second wave. The US keeps slipping in and
out of this list and is now out due to the new cases in America today, 6/23/20,
spiking to the prior highs.
China
(Active Case Peak Date 2/17/20) (13 days after New Case Peak Date) (data is
suspect)
South Korea
(Active Case Peak Date 3/11/20) (8 days)
Switzerland
(Active Case Peak Date 3/21/20) (11 days)
Austria
(Active Case Peak Date 4/3/20) (8 days)
Australia
(Active Case Peak Date 4/4/20) (13 days)
Iran (Active
Case Peak Date 4/5/20) (6 days) (data is suspect) (now in a second wave)
Germany
(Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (10 days)
Taiwan
(Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (17 days)
Hong Kong
(Active Case Peak Date 4/7/20) (9 days)
Hungary
(Active Case Peak Date 5/4/20) (24 days)
Israel
(Active Case Peak Date 4/16/20) (14 days)
Italy
(Active Case Peak Date 4/19/20) (30 days)
Ireland
(Active Case Peak Date 4/20/20) (10 days)
Turkey
(Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (13 days)
Spain
(Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (29 days)
France
(Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (26 days)
Japan
(Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (18 days)
Portugal
(Active Case Peak Date 5/11/20) (31 days)
Singapore
(Active Case Peak Date 5/12/20) (23 days)
Ecuador
(Active Case Peak Date 5/24/20) (30 days) (data is suspect)
Canada
(Active Case Peak Date 5/30/20) (28 days)
Russia
(Active Case Peak Date 6/15/20) (35 days) (data is suspect)
UK, Belgium,
Netherlands and Ecuador data are suspect so they are not analyzed.
Iran (second
wave occurring although data is suspect)
3/30/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/5/20
Active Case Peak Date (6 days) (peak of first wave)
6/4/20 New
Case Peak Date (more new cases than 3/30/20; Iran now in a second wave)
7/2/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (active cases peak 6/21/20 but give it a few
more days)
Peru (data
is suspect)
5/31/20 New
Case Peak Date
6/28/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (active cases peak 6/14/20 but give it a few
more days)
Sweden (data is suspect)
6/18/20 New Case Peak Date
7/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot
confirm that the peak is in)
Indonesia
6/20/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing)
7/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Chile (data
is problematic since active cases show a peak on 6/2/20)
6/14/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Bangladesh
6/17/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Columbia
6/18/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Brazil (data
is suspect)
6/19/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Mexico
6/19/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Egypt
6/19/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
South Africa
6/20/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Pakistan
6/20/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Kenya
6/21/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing)
7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Honduras
6/21/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing)
7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Philippines
(data is suspect)
6/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
India
6/23/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing at 12K per day)
7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Guatemala
6/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Argentina
6/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Bolivia
6/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
United
States
6/23/20 New
Case Peak Date (on same level as 4/24/20 and 5/1/20)
7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
It is
alarming that the US has fallen drastically on the list and is at the bottom of
the coronavirus trash heap alongside Philippines, India, Guatemala, Argentina
and Bolivia. Everyone sings, “La Cucaracha.” Iran may have made it though the
second wave which is remarkable and should be used as a case study if the data
is believable.
The trouble
areas remain South Asia, Africa and the southern United States, Mexico, Central
America and Latin (South) America. Mexico has had an extremely difficult time
handling the coronavirus over the last couple months and note how America’s
southern border states are seeing big jumps in cases. Perhaps the virus in Mexico
has mutated and it may be a more difficult strain to handle? In a sign of
things getting back to normal in Europe, Spain is reopening its borders except to
Portugal.
Poorer
nations are most impacted by COVID-19 currently which will further hurt the
global economy. Young people are becoming more infected. Three in five new
patients in the United States now average younger than 45 years old.
Seasonality does not appear to impact coronavirus. Cases in Australia are
rising which would be expected since the southern hemisphere has crossed into
wintertime. However, in many warm nations and in the southern US and Mexico,
the hotter weather does not slow the virus down. This behavior hints that the
second wave expected in the Fall may be at our doorstep faster than anyone
realizes.
Sweden is
pulling itself out of the virus quagmire. Sentiment is improving so the people
must sense that things are getting better. Sweden did not impose the draconian
lockdown measures like other countries and has taken heat over the matter.
However, much of the population self-isolated anyway and folks followed social
distancing guidelines so it is not a great study on imposing herd immunity. Conversely,
the US imposed lockdown restrictions on the population that then exited their
homes and apartments over the last month with reckless abandon, throwing
caution to the wind, so the number of virus cases are increasing in America.
Herd immunity may be the only way to eliminate the COVID-19 threat.
About 60%,
some doctors and scientists say 70% or 80%, of the population needs to be
infected or receive a vaccine to achieve herd immunity and eliminate the
wide-scale threat of COVID-19. America is perhaps 20% along so there is a long
way to go for herd immunity; now you can see why there is a push for a vaccine
which would greatly increase the chances of snuffing out coronavirus but that
opens up a whole new Pandora’s box on human rights and liberty. There will be
tracers in the vaccines which many will label as the Mark of the Beast. There
are numerous vaccine trials on humans currently underway around the world.
Americans are wavering from 25% to 75% (a wide range probably depending on the
last news they heard) in favor of receiving a vaccine should it be provided. It
will be interesting if the US and other nations spend billions of dollars on a
vaccine that no one wants to take.
The
dexamethasone drug is helping but only for critically-ill patients. The drug
slightly reduces the mortality rate. 40% of the virus cases are asymptomatic.
They can transfer the virus and do not know they have it. One in 10 coronavirus
cases are at nursing homes and account for 25% of the deaths.
China
experiences a mini-spike of cases in Beijing but you can never trust the
numbers from the communists. All schools are closed in Beijing and citizens
must be tested before allowed to leave the city. China cancels flights in and
out of Beijing. New cases in China ran to 150 during late last week but the
leadership says the virus is contained again. It is easier to contain a virus in
a communist state where you dictate to the people what they can and cannot do
and if they do not comply, they receive a bullet in their temple. US-China
relations remain strained and are deteriorating. President Trump says to not
rule out a “complete decoupling” from China.
The list of states
based on the highest number of COVID-19 cases to the lowest are as follows; New
York, California, New Jersey, Illinois, Texas, Massachusetts, Florida, Pennsylvania,
Michigan, Georgia, Maryland, Virginia, Arizona, North Carolina, Louisiana, Ohio
and Connecticut. Of the states with useable and available data, the first ones
listed below have weathered the covid first wave storm but the other states
remain in trouble. Projections on when the active cases (maximum strain on
medical facilities) will peak are provided by the Keystone Model.
California
leapfrogs Jersey. Texas leapfrogs Massachusetts. Florida leapfrogs
Pennsylvania. Georgia leapfrogs Maryland. Arizona leapfrogs five states. North
Carolina leapfrogs Louisiana and Connecticut. Thus, the states moving up the
list are getting worse namely California, Texas, Florida, Arizona and North
Carolina.
Louisiana
New Case
Peak Date 4/2/20
Active Case
Peak Date 4/23/20 (21 days between the peak in new cases and the peak in active
cases)
Michigan
New Case
Peak Date 4/3/20
Active Case
Peak Date 5/1/20 (28 days)
New Jersey
New Case
Peak Date 4/23/20
Active Case
Peak Date 5/20/20 (27 days)
Massachusetts
New Case
Peak Date 4/24/20 (a spike occurs on 6/1/20 but it may be due to data
collection)
Active Case
Peak Date 5/20/20 (26 days)
Pennsylvania
New Case
Peak Date 4/24/20
Active Case
Peak Date 5/21/20 (27 days)
Illinois
New Case
Peak Date 5/12/20
Active Case
Peak Date 5/30/20 (18 days)
Louisiana,
Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Illinois have weathered
the initial coronavirus wave. These states now have a bit of breathing room to
plan ahead for a potential second weave. The US states listed below show the active
cases bell curve charts rising, and not flattening, so the strain on the
healthcare systems continue. There are likely many flaws in the data
collection. Most of the states below will not peak out on the active cases
curve until well into July. The strain and stress on medical facilities will
continue for the states below.
New York
(data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 4/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/13/20 (as
of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)
Ohio (data
is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 4/20/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 5/18/20 (as of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)
Washington
(state) (data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/1/20
Projected Active
Case Peak Date 5/29/20 (as of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)
Maryland
(data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/19/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 6/16/20 (as of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)
Virginia
(data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/26/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (as of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)
The
following states are seeing rapid increases in new cases. May the Lord Have
Mercy on Their Souls. It was fun and games for a couple-three weeks in the
states below as caution and social distancing was cast aside in favor of
restarting the economy and partying but now these regions are experiencing a
covid hangover.
New Mexico
New Case
Peak Date 6/5/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/3/20
Arkansas
New Case
Peak Date 6/18/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/16/20
South
Carolina
New Case
Peak Date 6/20/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/18/20
North
Carolina
New Case
Peak Date 6/20/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/18/20
Florida
(data is suspect) (republican convention is moved to Florida)
New Case
Peak Date 6/20/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/18/20
Oklahoma
New Case
Peak Date 6/21/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Georgia
New Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (cases rapidly
increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/21/20
Texas
New Case
Peak Date 6/23/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/21/20
California
New Case
Peak Date 6/23/20 (cases increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/21/20
Arizona
New Case
Peak Date 6/23/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/21/20
For any
state that has not yet reached its peak in the active case curve, simply
identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project
when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the
Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s
number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the
new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load.
President
Trump held the campaign rally last Saturday in Oklahoma and today he is in
Arizona. The republican convention this summer is in Florida. Donnie is hitting
all the hot spots. In New York, Governor Cuomo ended the daily news
conferences. Cuomo has been receiving a lot of heat for sending sick folks into
nursing homes early on with the pandemic. He is blaming the Whitehouse and CDC
for poor guidance early in the process. Cuomo performs a “mission accomplished”
presser last week but the active cases chart continues rising albeit slightly.
Cuomo has nothing to celebrate or move on to; he needs to remain focused on the
coronavirus problem. When the active cases curve lingers on higher while new
cases drift lower for several weeks, that is indicative or more elderly patients
that are taking longer to recover (spending more time in the hospital or care
centers).
In Texas,
Houston is worried about running out of ICU (Intensive Care Unit; where you are placed on a ventilator) beds. The Houston ICU bed capacity is about 95% filled and increasing. As long as the active cases bell
curve chart keeps moving higher, and is not yet flattening for the top of the
bell, the medical folks will be under stress. All the troubled states above are
in the US south and west. The hot weather is not slowing down covid. The states
bordering Mexico are hit hard; one wonders if that strain of virus is more
difficult to beat down. Mexico’s problems spread to the southern US states.
Florida is a
battleground state for the presidential election only four months away. 75% of
Florida’s hospitals are filled with patients. The senior voting block is key
and many of the older folks are dropping like flies. Trump’s handling of the
virus may bite him in Florida which he has to win to achieve reelection. City
mayors across Florida and the United States, that laughed at the suggestion of
wearing masks, are now imposing mask-wearing on citizens.
The top of
the active cases bell curve may not develop until well into July so the strain
on medical personnel, especially in those bottom 10 states, New Mexico,
Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas,
California and Arizona, will continue. New Mexico, Arkansas, the Carolina’s and
Georgia have not been in the news as much as the others so the mainstream media
may be opining about the rising cases in these states in the days ahead. The
Keystone Model is great at identifying the next and continuing hot spots around
the world and within the US. Mississippi and Nevada are also showing significant cases but the data is inconclusive to include it above. In America, the rate of infection in young people
under 25 years old is increasing.
As the
coronavirus mess continues, the protests and riots addressing racial injustice
continue. Actually, there are many groups with different agendas. There are
anarchists and there are simply some opportunistic looters. Protesters are
tearing down statues of political figures claiming the people supported
slavery, however, the mob behavior has morphed into destroying any statue. The
natives are getting restless. Society is working itself into frenzy.
Americans
have lost confidence in the three main medical authorities (WHO, CDC and NIH)
and are frustrated at the confusing messaging and starts and stops with the
economy. Dr Fauci, at the NIH, testifies before Congress and says he is
“concerned over an increase in community spread.” Fauci leads the president’s
virus task force but admits he has not talked to Trump for a couple weeks.
Fauci proclaims, “The next few weeks are critical.” Dr Redfield, at the CDC,
brings a wet blanket to the party saying the coming weeks “will be difficult.”
Note Added
Wednesday Morning, 6/24/20, at 3:02 AM EST: The EU (European Union) is
considering banning American travel to the continent due to the sharp increase
in COVID-19 cases in the states. It would also be a reciprocal type measure
since the US banned flights from Europe. President Trump is panning new tariffs
against the EU. Only King Donnie would consider tariffs in the middle of a
global pandemic and flailing world economy; it rhymes with the protectionism during
the 1930’s Great Depression. A presidential poll released this morning from New
York Times/Siena College shows democrat challenger Joe Biden at 50% and
republican President Trump at 36%. Biden has a strong 14 percentage-point lead while
he is hiding in the basement. The American people may be tiring of the daily
Donnie showman and braggadocio schtick. The coronavirus mess is not helping the
president. Another poll shows two-thirds of the country believe that Trump is
dishonest. As stated many times, the republicans provide Donnie with his daily ego-stroking
adoration and tell him he is doing a good job because they want the judges.
Trump keeps stacking the court with conservative judges that will shape the US court
system for decades to come. Republican leaders laugh at Trumpster behind his
back and make fun of his buffoonery and bloviating style in the back rooms on
Capitol Hill but praise him in public because they simply want the judges. China
wants US meat and food producers to guarantee that shipments are virus-free.
Get real. The filthy communists release their bioweapon on the world then the
Beijing leadership demands that the food they receive is free of the virus they
created. If not, China wants to charge fees and damages. Plain and simple,
never trust a filthy communist, they will slit your throat in the middle of the
night. Trump, Cook (Apple) and Musk (Tesla) will all receive the shaft from the
commies as the weeks and months play out. S&P futures dip -30 points in the
early morning hours. Global investors and traders are concerned about the
spreading virus in America and concern that the global economy will not recover
as fast as hoped.
Note Added
Wednesday Morning, 6/24/20, at 11:30 AM EST: Just before lunch time, the US
stock market is cratering. The US-China strained trade relations, talks of new
tariffs against Europe and of course the ongoing, and worsening, global
COVID-19 pandemic, are creating a negative vibe on Wall Street. The S&P
500, the US stock market (SPX), is crashing 74 points, -2.4% to 3057. The Dow
is off 635 points, -2.5%, to 25520. The computer screens are blood red. Europe
is also crashing. Germany’s DAX plummets -3%. France’s CAC -2.7%. Italy’s MIB
is puking -3.3%. The mainstream and business media is commenting on the sharp
spike higher in the 7-day average of new cases in the United States as highlighted
in the chart above. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut impose quarantine restrictions against visitors from other states. The news further sinks the stock market. The SPX is down 98 points, -3.1%, to 3033.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/24/20, at 1:01 PM EST: The stock market selloff continues although equities are off the lows. Bloomberg cites a large increase in coronavirus cases as spooking the markets. The 7-day averages of new cases in Arizona, South Carolina, Texas, Florida and Oklahoma print record increases. The SPX is down 68 points, -2.2%, to 3063. The University of Washington estimates that 180K US deaths will occur from COVID-19 by 10/1/20. Reference the prior Article 10, linked above, for the US death chart. Extrapolating the worst case the deaths are in that 180K to 190K area. However, the lower line on that chart is patterned after the other countries that already weathered the covid storm. The deaths rise more flatly as time goes on so the Keystone Model would put the deaths at a lower number say 160K three months from now. The Worldometer data shows about 124K US deaths currently while the Johns-Hopkins data is at 122K deaths currently. The news from Houston, Texas, becomes more dire. Houston is at their ICU bed capacity. Texas halts the reopening of its economy. Texas doctors band together and say there are plenty of beds available; they are obviously trying to calm the situation. Texas Governor Abbott proclaims, "There is a massive outbreak of COVID-19 across the state of Texas." President Trump appears detached or in denial saying the worst days of the virus are behind us and blames the testing for identifying more cases. Trump keeps dropping in the polls against democrat challenger Biden.
Note Added Saturday, 6/27/20: The news goes from bad to worse. Florida and Texas are back pedaling from opening the economy. Florida, Texas, California, Arizona, Georgia, Tennessee, Utah and Idaho are reporting record spikes in virus cases. The rural areas are getting hit now. Yesterday, US new cases hit 47,341 the highest number ever blowing away the chart above. Vice President Pence holds a press conference at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) the first briefing in two months. Prince Pence and King Trump keep doing victory laps claiming mission accomplished. Pence proclaims, "We are in a much stronger place." It sounds delusional. Pence will not tell everyone to use a face mask since Donnie refuses to don a mouth diaper. President Trump (not attending the news conference) says there are less deaths and deaths are "way, way down." Of course deaths are increasing but the president is referring to the daily rate of change. For example, the US total cumulative deaths due to COVID-19, as of yesterday are 127,640. The day before 126,977. The day before that 126,324. The day before that 125,505. The day before that 124,634. Thus, as of yesterday's presser, the deaths the three prior days are 871, 819 and 653. This is the number of Americans croaking each day due to the virus; from 600 to 900 souls. On the Republican Tribe side, Trump and Pence say the deaths are going down; they are referencing that daily rate of change so technically that is correct. On the Democrat Tribe side, they say deaths are increasing which is correct since cumulatively, deaths will always increase until the virus ends and the final number is tallied. Do you see how all the filthy politicians play their political half-truth games in the world of crony capitalism? You are best served by not joining either tribe. Now perform the subtraction for yesterday's deaths. Yes, the day to day rate is 663 deaths yesterday versus 653 deaths on Thursday. The death rate is now increasing as well. Pence is lucky he held the conference yesterday because today he is a liar saying the deaths are decreasing; the rate of US deaths are now on the upside again. Pence also declares that the curve has been flattened. This statement contains two errors. First, he is referencing the new cases bar chart which did flatten out but now it has spiked higher than ever; there is no flattening occurring. Second, and more important, he is referencing the "flattening of the curve" to the wrong chart. Keystone keeps mentioning this fact over and over but America in general is too stupid to comprehend easy charts, math and science. Fifth graders can be taught to understand this information but adults cannot since they are blinded by politics. For the umpteenth time, the flattening of the curve references the active cases bell curve. The active cases chart is important since it represents the strain and stress on healthcare professionals and equipment. This is the bell curve you want to see flatten and then roll over lower to form the right side of the bell pattern. Flattening the curve has nothing to do with the new cases bar chart except as the Keystone Model highlights above, the active cases bell curve should peak out and flatten about 28 days after the peak in new cases occurs. Since 6/26/20 is a new peak in new cases, add 28 days, and the maximum strain on US medical personnel will likely not occur until 7/24/20 (extending the chart above). God Bless all you folks. Trump and Pence are botching up the COVID-19 pandemic, it is a mess, but they are probably doing about as well as any republocrat or demopublican joker can do. Do not trust any of the media. Do not join either corrupt tribe. Learn, study and teach yourself. You don't want to be an American Idiot.
